10 Dec 2024

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference: First Nordic Metals Corp Presentation
Venue: Online, register here

December 10, 2024

John Tumazos Virtual Conference

December 10 at 1:00 pm PT

December 10, 2024

West Red Lake Gold Live Today for the Very Independent Research Conference

11:45am PT – 2:45pm ET

Join CEO Shane Williams & VP Communications Gwen Preston live for the latest update on WRLG.

Full presentation with Q&A to follow.

Very Independent Research will be hosting West Red Lake Gold for the first time, as we push towards the restart of our Madsen Mine in 2025.

Tune in for an in-depth update on the Madsen mine and a chance to ask questions.

Register here

Gold Royalty Corp (NYSE: GROY) mentioned you in a post.

Gold Royalty Corp. (NYSE: GROY) mentioned you in a post Register for our virtual presentation next week with John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC Tap the link to register…

October 9, 2024

Solitario CEO to Present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
DENVER, CO – October 8, 2024 – Solitario Resources Corp. (“Solitario”) (NYSE American:
XPL; TSX: SLR) is pleased to report President and CEO Chris Herald will provide a live webcast
presentation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC on Wednesday, October 9th,
2024, at 2:45 pm EDT. Mr. Herald plans to review the Golden Crest’s maiden drilling program
in South Dakota. and will also provide an update on its advanced-stage Florida Canyon and Lik
high-grade zinc projects. To access the live presentation, please register in advance here.https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7588126003949551704

About Solitario
Solitario is a natural resource exploration company focused on high-quality Tier-1 gold and zinc
exploration projects. The Company is traded on the NYSE American (“XPL”) and on the Toronto
Stock Exchange (“SLR”). In addition to its South Dakota property holdings, Solitario holds a 50%
joint venture interest (Teck Resources 50%) in the high-grade Lik zinc deposit in Alaska and a
39% joint venture interest (Nexa Resources 61%) in the high-grade Florida Canyon zinc project
in Peru. At Florida Canyon, Solitario is carried to production through its joint venture arrangement
with Nexa. Solitario’s Management and Directors hold approximately 8.4% (excluding options)
of the Company’s 81.6 million shares outstanding. Solitario’s cash balance and marketable
securities stand at approximately US$7.8 million. Additional information about Solitario is
available online at www.solitarioresources.com.
Solitario has a long history of committed Environmental, Social and Responsible Governance
(“ESG”) of its business. We realize ESG issues are also important to investors, employees, and all
stakeholders, including communities in which we work. We are committed to conducting our
business in a manner that supports positive environmental and social initiatives and responsible
corporate governance. Importantly, we work with joint venture partners that not only value the
importance of ESG issues in the conduct of their business on our joint venture projects but are
leaders in the industry in this important segment of our business.

For More Information Please Contact:
Chris Herald, President & CEO
303-534-1030 ext.

Solitario Resources

10/09/2024

Chris Herald, CEO, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC on October 9, 2024 at 2:45 PM EDT. Please register in advance at here. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with information about joining the webinar.

Osisko Development

JOHN TUMAZOS CONFERENCE (VIRTUAL)
October 9, 2024
Sean Roosen, Chairman & CEO, live virtual presentation: Oct 9, 2024 at 1.30 pm ET
Register

Pan American Silver

Location: Virtual
Time: 11 AM EDT

Alamos Gold

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference

October 9, 2024 09:45 AM ET

Virtual Conference

Add to Calendar

View Webcast

Royal Gold Inc.

John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2024 Virtual Conference

October 8, 2024 11:00 AM ET

Jason Hynes, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Business Development

Add to Calendar

Webcast

John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.

Osisko Metals

Rejoignez-nous à la Conférence virtuelle 2024 ! Ne manquez pas la présentation de Robert Wares, chef de la direction de Métaux Osisko, demain à 16 h. Il y parlera des projets de l’entreprise et de l’avenir du cuivre.

Inscrivez-vous pour assister à sa présentation à l’adresse suivante : https://register.gotowebinar.com/regi…/3409874067032538973

#MétauxOsisko #ConférenceVirtuelle

May 9, 2024

Please register for Appia Rare Earth & Uranium Corp. with John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC on May 14, 2024, 9:45 AM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1859871633972859232

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Pittsburgh Post- Gazette

Evan Robinson-Johnshon

https://www.post-gazette.com/business/powersource/2023/12/24/us-steel-nippon-mon-valley-steel-industry-ltv/stories/202312240058?cid=search

Mr. Tumazos grew up in Homestead, where his father, Charles, worked 27 years as a machinist, making gears for U.S. Steel’s rolling mills.

“He was a little more educated than the average steelworker,” Mr. Tumazos said. “They offered him jobs in management, but he would never take them. He didn’t play golf, and I don’t think he wanted to go around glad-handing customers. He preferred to make a physical product.”

U.S. Steel closed Charles’ shop along with several mills in 1982 as the country began to slide toward greater reliance on cheap production overseas. To Mr. Tumazos and other observers, that process is only just starting to reverse itself.

Saturday, December 23, 2023

TRIB LIVE

Justin Velluccik

https://triblive.com/local/u-s-steel-sale-will-create-new-jobs-spark-investment-in-mon-valley-analyst-says/

U.S. Steel sale will create new jobs, spark investment in Mon Valley, analyst says

John C. Tumazos thinks unions and Pennsylvania politicians have gotten the U.S. Steel sale all wrong.

Tumazos called the knee-jerk opposition to foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, especially by a U.S. ally such as Japan, “racist and xenophobic.”

‘It shocked me’

Tumazos and others who follow the steel industry said they consider it likely that Nippon Steel will resurrect U.S. Steel’s planned $1.2 billion Mon Valley modernization, which the company abandoned in May 2021, just two years after announcing it.

December 13, 2023

UPCOMING EVENTS

JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH 2023 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE

Dec 12 – Dec 13, 2023

December 13, 2023

12/13/2023

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference

Virtual Event

WEBCAST

ADD TO CALENDAR

December 12, 2023
Webinar – John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/243967770683354461

December 12, 2023

Wallbridge Mining and John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC on Dec 12, 2023, 12:15 PM EST

Link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3991362883314126166

December 12, 2023

12/10/2023

Solitario will be presenting at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC on December 10th at 11:00 am Eastern Time. To register for the event, please click here After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

December 12, 2023
Webinar – John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/243967770683354461

12/13/2023

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference

Virtual Event

WEBCAST

ADD TO CALENDAR

Dec 12- Dec 13, 2023

Events & Webcasts

Dec 12 – Dec 13, 2023

John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2023 Virtual Conference

PRESENTATION: Wednesday, December 13 at 1:30pm ET

October 10, 2023, 5:15 P.M. ET

EMX ROYALTY CORP

Dear Investor,

I invite you to register for a webinar on October 10th at 5:15 PM, Eastern Daylight Time (North America) with EMX Royalty CEO & Founder, David M. Cole and renowned former Wall Street analyst, John Tumazos of Very Independent Research. John will dig in on the latest developments at EMX Royalty with plenty of probing inquiries.

To register for the event

Please don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions.

October 11, 2023, 12:15 PM ET

HECLA MINING

October 11, 2023, 12:15 PM ET

Hecla Mining At John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2023 Virtual Conference

ADD TO CALENDAR

WEBCAST

April 24, 2023

Author: Kep Keen

Theme: Metals

“In the sport of triathlon, they say, expect the unexpected and be ready for rough water,” said John Tumazos, a veteran mining analyst at Very Independent Research. “I think in this situation, there are many unexpected turns that could happen.”

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/teck-asset-split-vote-looms-amid-takeover-tussle-with-glencore-75295167

May 3, 2023

Teck may be headed for ‘straight’ coal spinoff in revised asset split – analysts

Author: Kip Keen

Theme Metals

The potential sale price Teck could receive for the coal assets in a cooling market would likely be “too low,” John Tumazos, a veteran mining analyst at Very Independent Research, said in an email.

May 31, 2023 Osisko Metals

https://osiskometals.com/news/social-media/

Join Osisko Metals at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference June 6

Join our CEO, Robert Wares, at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference, taking place online on Tuesday June 6, 2023, at 12:15 PM EDT.

Registration is free! After registering using the link below, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the webinar.

May 24, 2023, Gold Terra Resources

Gold Terra presentation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

Jun 7, 2023
9:45 AM EDT

Please register at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5058770965778204758

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

May 24, 2023, Osisko Gold Royalties

John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2023 Conference

June 6, 2023, VIRTUAL

Please register for Osisko Gold Royalties and John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC on Jun 6, 2023, 9:45 AM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8721917099015000665

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

May 17, 2023 FRANCO-NEVADA

John Tumazos Very Independent Research

JUNE 6, 2023

Virtual

ADD TO CALENDAR

WEBCAST

May 17, 2023, TRIPEFLAG PRECIOUS METALS

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference

June 6, 2023 01:30 PM ET

Virtual

ADD TO CALENDAR

WEBCAST

April 12, 2023

Ascendant Resources Inc.

EVENT DETAILS

JOHN TUMAZOS CONFERENCE

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4029020052247725147

April 11-12, 2023 OSISKO DEVELOPMENT

News
Recent Media Coverage of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

JOHN TUMAZOS CONFERENCE (VIRTUAL)
April 11 – 12, 2023
Chris Lodder, President, live virtual presentation: April 12, 2023, at 9.45 am ET
Replay (accessible for 1 year)

There are two big comeback stories in the Newcrest takeover

A $24.4 billion bid for Newcrest shows Australia is back in fashion with the world’s biggest gold miner, at a time when gold is returning to favour with investors.

Peter KerResources reporter

Feb 10, 2023 – 4.48pm

John Tumazos was a New Jersey-based mining analyst for Prudential in 2002 and was worried that the
Normandy acquisition would leave Newmont struggling to control dozens of assets spread across six
continents.

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/when-everything-gold-is-newmont-again-20230208-p5cixk

The Shania Twain link to Newcrest’s $24.4b takeover offer

Peter KerResources reporter

Updated Feb 10, 2023 – 9.41am,first published at 9.00am

“They run the mine to not reclaim it,” said American mining analyst John Tumazos of the old diggings
around Timmins.

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/the-shania-twain-link-to-newcrest-s-24-4b-takeover-offer-20230209-p5cj7p

September 27, 2022

Royal Gold Presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2022 Virtual Conference

09/27/2022

DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) (together with its subsidiaries, “Royal Gold” or the “Company,” “we” or “our”) announced today that management will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2022 Virtual Conference.

Jason Hynes, Vice President Business Development and Strategy, will participate virtually on Tuesday, October 11, from 1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. EDT (11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. MDT). The webcast may be accessed through the Company’s website under the Investors/Events and Presentations page. The replay will be available within 24 hours after the presentation.

WEBCAST LINK:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4729632150651211277

Corporate Profile

Royal Gold is a precious metals stream and royalty company engaged in the acquisition and management of precious metal streams, royalties and similar production-based interests. As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned interests on 185 properties on five continents, including interests on 41 producing mines and 19 development stage projects. Royal Gold is publicly traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “RGLD.” The Company’s website is located at www.royalgold.com.

For further information, please contact:
Alistair Baker
Vice President Investor Relations and Business Development
(720) 554-6995

Source: Royal Gold

April 11-12, 2023 OSISKO DEVELOPMENT

News
Recent Media Coverage of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

JOHN TUMAZOS CONFERENCE (VIRTUAL)
April 11 – 12, 2023
Chris Lodder, President, live virtual presentation: April 12, 2023, at 9.45 am ET
Replay (accessible for 1 year)

OCTOBER 11-12 2022

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference

Live virtual presentation October 11, 9:45 AM – 10:45 AM ET
Register here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/222239208278497040

ADD TO CALENDAR

August 10, 2022

ALAMOS GOLD INC.

JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH CONFERENCE 2022

AUGUST 10, 2022 09:45 AM ET

Virtual Conference

ADD TO CALENDAR

VIEW WEBCAST

Hecla Mining

August 09, 2022 11:00 AM ET

Hecla Mining Company at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Conference

Event Details:

Event Date: August 09, 2022 11:00 AM ET

Webcast URL: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7141501066130939662

Additional Documents:

Presentation

June 21, 2022

FRANCO-NEVADA

John Tumazos Very Independent Research

June 21, 2022 04:00 PM EST

Virtual

Eaun Gray, Senior Vice President, Business Development, will be presenting on June 21, 2022, from 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm ET. Please click on the webcast link below to register and join the webcast.

WEBCAST

Virtual

John Tumazos Very Independent Research

WEBCAST

December 2, 2021

Tanzanian Gold to Attend the John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC December 2021 Virtual Conference

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – November t, 2021

TORONTO, November t, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Tanzanian Gold Corporation (TSX:TNX) (NYSE American:TRX) (TanGold or the Company)  announces that management will present in the John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC December 2021 Virtual Conference.

Stephen Mullowney, TanGold Chief Executive Officer, together with Andrew Cheatle (COO) and Michael Leonard (CFO) will participate in a virtual presentation and discussion with John Tumazos. on Tuesday, December 7^th from 1:30 pm to 2:30 pm EST.

The webcast may be accessed through the Company’s website under the Investors/Events and Investors/Presentations pages.

Webcast link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1339211078421324299

A replay of the presentation will be available following the live webcast using the same link.

About Tanzanian Gold Corporation

Tanzanian Gold Corporation along with its joint venture partner, STAMICO is building a significant gold project at Buckreef in Tanzania that is based on an expanded Mineral Resource base and the treatment of its mineable Mineral Reserves in two standalone plants. Measured Mineral Resource now stands at 19.98MT at 1.99g/t gold containing 1,281,161 ounces of gold and Indicated Mineral Resource now stand at 15.89MT at 1.48g/t gold containing 755,119 ounces of gold for a combined tonnage of 35.88MT at 1.77g/t gold containing 2,036,280 ounces of gold. The Buckreef Project also contains an Inferred Mineral Resource of 17.8MT at 1.11g/t gold for contained gold of 635,540 ounces of gold. The Company is actively investigating and assessing multiple exploration targets on its property. Please refer to the Company’s Updated Mineral Resources Estimate for Buckreef Gold Project, dated May 15, 2020, for more information.

Tanzanian Gold Corporation is advancing on three value-creation tracks:

Strengthening its balance sheet by expanding near-term production to 15,000 – 20,000 of gold per year from the expanded 1,000+ tpd plant.
Advancing Sulphide Development that is substantially larger than previously modelled and targeting significant annual gold
Continuing with a drilling program to further test the potential of its property, Exploration Targets and Mineral Resource base by: (i) infill drilling to upgrade Mineral Resources currently in the Inferred category in Buckreef Main; (ii) step-out drilling in the northeast extension of Buckreef Main; (iii) infill drilling program of Buckreef West; (iv) develop exploration program for the newly discovered Anfield Zone; (v) upgrade historical resources at Bingwa and Tembo; (vi) identification of new prospects at Buckreef Gold Project and in the

For further information, please contact Michael Martin, Investor Relations, m.martin@tangoldcorp.com, 860-248-0999, or visit the Company website at www.tangoldcorp.com

The Toronto Stock Exchange and NYSE American have not reviewed and do not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our SEC filings. You can review and obtain copies of these filings from the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.

Centerra moves to block Kyrgyzstan government from selling shares after Kumtor mine nationalized
The Globe and Mail
By Niall McGee
May 18, 2021

The Canadian government, said John Tumazos, mining analyst with Very Independent Research LLC has “no teeth” and he isn’t expecting much action beyond words.” The Russian and Chinese companies, if they were screwed around like this, the tanks would roll,” he said. “The local despot in Kyrgyzstan couldn’t mess around with them the way he would with these poor polite Canadians.”

Northern Dynasty eyes controversial Alaska mine as high gold prices encourage ecologically dicey projects
Battle over Pebble may be harbinger of coming political fights as idea of opening whole new mining district attracts investors
By: Gabriel Friedman
Published on: October 6, 2020 | Last Updated: October 6, 2020 9:44 AM EDT
https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/northern-dynasty-eyes-controversial-alaska-mine-as-high-gold-prices-encourage-ecologically-dicey-projects

It’s a little like a Saudi Arabia for gold

JOHN TUMAZOS

While Tumazos said he still has questions about whether the mine even makes economic sense, and if so, how it will be financed, he blamed environmentalists for politicizing the process.

As the ore grades drop, the environmental and social impacts become more severe

JOHN TUMAZOS

Already, at least three other mining companies have studied and dropped the Pebble Mine, and yet Tumazos, who said he is not an investor in the project, believes that regardless of how long permitting, economic feasibility studies, engineering and litigation ties up the project, some mining company is likely to try and push the development.

“We could be talking ten years from now, and these issues could still be going on,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with New Jersey-based Very Independent Research LLC. “I’m tired, but it’s one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in the world.”

Green Economy Will Be
A Gold Mine for Copper
May 10, 2021
Barron’s Associate Editor
by ANDREW BARY
file:///C:/Users/alici/Downloads/Copper%20May%2010,%202021.pdf

John Tumazos of John Tumazos
Very Independent Research, favors
Grupo Mexico as a play on Southern
Copper. Controlled by billionaire German Larrea Mota-Velasco, Grupo
Mexico owns 89% of Southern Copper
and 70% of Grupo Mexico Transportes, which owns a top Mexican
railroad. “Through Grupo Mexico,
you’re able to buy Southern Copper at
a big discount and get the railroad for
free,” Tumazos says.
With copper potentially in a long
bull market, there still is time for investors to get aboard. B

Karus Gold
John Tumazos Very Independent Research webinar
April 20, 2021 at 2:45pm ET
Register: to watch our presentation
https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/2187596443878050574

Lion One Metals
JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
Date: April 20, 2021 @ 11:00am ET
https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/8614512388053835535

Minera Alamos
April 19-20, 2021
Very Independent Conference – JT
Webcst Link https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4224096487269170189

Agnico Eagle Mines
April 19, 2021
John Tumazos Virtual Conference 2021
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4464852150355995149

YAMANA GOLD
April 19, 2021
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference
Webcast: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6038823936651265550
Gold Terra
John Tumazos Vitural Confernce April 19, 2021
https://veryindependentresearch.net/

Trilogy Metals Inc.
John Tumazos (Very Independent Research) Feb. 17, 2021 Online Conference
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4283389851192594444

Altius Sustainable Royalties
John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Conference 2021
https://altiusminerals.com/storage/presentations/2021-02-12-corporate-presentation-john-tumazos-conference-2021-1613163812.pdf

Ascendant Resources Inc.
Feb 16 – 17, 2021
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference

New Oroperu Resources Inc.
February 16, 2021 – Tumazos Conference
https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/1164727374013827334

Solitario Zinc Corp.
02/16/2021 President & CEO Christopher Herald presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference at 4:00 p.m. EST https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1748687894267350286

Maple Gold Mines
February 16, 2021
John Tumazos Virtual Conference featuring CEO Matthew Hornor & VP Exploration Fred Speidel
https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/recordingView?webinarKey=1977450084518535694&registrantEmail=kbuchanan%40maplegoldmines.com

Granada Gold Mine Inc.
CEO Frank Basa’s Presentation with John Tumazos Mining Conference February 16, 2021, https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4933968681886522638

2008, 2020 steel rallies seen very differently

February 3, 2021
AMM
New York | Thorsten Schier, Amy Bennett, Mark Shenk

“Today is very different; there are US issues and world issues. So far in January, crude steel output is 10% below last year, but producers will not restart integrated capacity, even with current prices, because they lack confidence,” John Tumazos, president and metals analyst with John Tumazos Very Independent Research, told Fastmarkets.The same goes for other commodities, like wood, Tumazos said, where tight supply is driving prices higher despite returning demand and backlogs. And one factor that may be behind producers’ lack of confidence is the changing US presidential administration, which means uncertainty around things like environmental regulations, taxes and the Section 232 duties on foreign steel.

December 9, 2020

AKO.ax is an iron ore project in Madagascar. I visited them last February. There are pictures on my website. This little company has big names on it. CEO Paul Bibby is the ex-CEO of OGC.to and Rob McEwen and my good friend well-known mining analyst John Tumazos are two of the big shareholders. Iron ore is red hot and this one can be world-class. They are going to release drilling results as well as IPO this Friday on ASX. Another stock worth following.

http://chenpicks.com/chenvisitakoraresource.html

Good luck with the IPO!

Regards,

Chen

November 4, 2020

The Morning Call: What does it Mean?

Good Morning John C.,

We woke up to find there’s no decision yet. So many States too close to call. Firstly the FED still matters. The FOMC meetings are today. No matter who wins, Jay Powell hopefully stays on the job. The Vote rejected the “progressive” wing of the Democrats. The Millenials didn’t seem to turn out for their “Green” agenda. There’s no Mandate for Democratic “Tax and Spend”. There was no repudiation for the Trump Persona. Us and Them has become City versus Country. We suspect this is the last Hurrah for the uneducated, opinionated, minimally skilled older white guy. But he’s asserting himself right now. After spending close to $2B on campaigns we have an outcome that’s this close.

Not receiving much attention is the Senate races. The Democrats outspent the GOP by $100mm They picked up 3 seats, leaving the GOP with a 1 seat majority. The prospect then is for very little getting done. There may be endless hearings about the Tech companies in the Senate. It’s unlikely that very much gets done. No BIG Tax increases? How much leeway will Biden get?. The Blue Train Left the station. Tumazos may be right and we don’t know until the 15th. Or maybe as far out as December 1st.The actual aggregate mandate looks like the US is a center-right country. Stay Tuned.

Last week, Markets had an enormous selloff. The Dow lost 1K points and now has regained it all. The DOW was up 400 plus points on Monday. Yesterday the DOW gained 555 points to close at 27,480. The S&P closed at 3,369. Nasdaq closed at 11,160. The Nasdaq 100 was up 3.3%. Stocks like Walgreens up 4%. JPM up 3.4%. Goldman up 4.1%. The Traders had opted for the safety of the 10 year Treasury and the USD. There seemed to be a building expectation that the 10 year was heading towards a 1% yield. That’s unwound with the yield back to 77 bpts. Interestingly, Gold has rejected the 50 DMA and is holding above $1900. The broad Indices have had their best 3 days in a month.

Against this background, the CVD s accelerating. Pretty much everywhere. Europe, UK, US. The US cases are growing at 20% week over week. It’s in the headlines but some question how much worse is it that a very bad “Flu”? It disproportionately affects the Elderly. Preconditions make you much more vulnerable. Isolation with Masks, hand washing, and quarantine works. We knew that 100 years ago. At this point how difficult is it to close everything down again? Very Difficult. The Chinese had the right Idea. We were shocked when they locked down a city of 11 million, Wuhan. We aren’t going to do that. When asked to wear a mask that does help there’s a pushback from the “Anti-Maskers” The same as in1918. The vaccine will probably not get here until Q2 2021. How long will it take to achieve mass inoculation?

Meanwhile, the economy slows down. The ADP private Payroll added 365K jobs. 645 K was expected. The Markit Services PMI is 56.9 when 56 was expected. The Markit Composite PMI is 55.9. ISM non-manufacturing PMI is 56.6 versus a forecast of 57.5. Some of the Stimulus has worn off. Still, the system is very liquid. Consumer savings are historically high. Inventory re-building will go ahead. With the Senate as GOP and the House Democratic which Industry benefits most? Technology. The concerns over re-regulation and hostile environment is removed. California voted for the “GIG” economy. Almost 60% to 40%. The DXY is reverting to the mean.

Invest the Money.

Granada Gold To Participate In John Tumazos Mining Conference Research Webinar August 14 At 10 AM Eastern

Aug 13, 2020

Current Resources: 2019 Pit-Constrained Resource Estimate¹
Category	Tonnes	Grade(g/t Au)	Contained Gold (oz.)
Measured	12,637,000	1.02	413,000
Indicated	9,630,000	1.13	349,000
M&I Total	22,267,000	1.06	762,000
Inferred	6,930,000	2.04	455,000

Osisko Metals https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4SJsKSzQQheFV6E62znGvA

to Participate in Very Independent Research Webinar on August 10

MONTREAL, Aug. 10, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Osisko Metals Incorporated (the “Company” or “Osisko Metals“) (TSX-V: OM; OTCQX: OMZNF; FRANKFURT: 0B51) is pleased to announce that it will participate in a John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC 2020 Conference webinar, today, Monday August 10^th at 4:00PM Eastern. Robert Wares, Chairman and CEO, will present a company update. Registration to the webinar can be found at:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4SJsKSzQQheFV6E62znGvA

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

The corporate presentation for the webinar can be found at:

https://veryindependentresearch.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/200807-Osisko_Metals-Corporate_Presentation-V4.pdf

ADVENTUS MINING TO PRESENT AT THE JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_uLhu_7dXQ0C_zBEJjq24vg

CONFERENCE (AUG 13) AND TO ATTEND BEAVER CREEK PRECIOUS METALS SUMMIT (SEPT 15 TO 18)

Toronto, August [4], 2020 – Adventus Mining Corporation (“Adventus” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: ADZN, OTCQX: ADVZF) is pleased to host a live video webinar on Thursday, August 13th, 2020 at 12:00pm EDT as part of the Company’s participation in the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference for the first time.

Building on the Company’s recent exploration drilling and project development progress updates from its Curipamba – El Domo, Pijili, and Santiago copper-gold projects in Ecuador, Christian Kargl-Simard, President and Chief Executive Officer of Adventus, will provide an overview update of Adventus’ latest activities and plans.

All current and potential investors, analysts, and the general public are cordially invited to the live-video webinar. Adventus management will be available to answer questions during the presentation

Adventus Mining Corporation – John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference 2020
When: Thursday, August 13th, 2020 at 12:00pm EDT
Online registration and participation details: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_uLhu_7dXQ0C_zBEJjq24vg

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference 2020

Largo Resources

June 30, 2020 01:00 PM EST

Virtual Conference

Paulo Misk, President and CEO

You are invited to a Zoom webinar.

When: Jun 30, 2020, 01:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)

Topic: Largo Resources & John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

Register in advance for this webinar:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_yKjAGI8rSLCvMZKCWsDJsw

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference 2020

Virtual Conference

June 30, 2020

- - Trilogy Metals (Formerly NovaCopper Inc.).
    
    Trilogy Metals – Corporate Presentation – Very Independent Research Confernce June 24, 2020
    
    View Presentation
  - Pan American Silver
    
    Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference
    
    June 23, 2020Location: Virtual Conference
    Time: 12:00 pm ET / 9:00 am PT
    
    WEBCAST
  - Amarillo Gold
    
    John Tumazos Very Independent Research conference on June 23, 2020
    
    Mike Mutchler, President and Chief Executive Officer, will present at the virtual John Tumazos Very Independent Research conference on Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 10.45 a.m. ET. The presentation will be webcast live at the following link:
    
    https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_hhKwxdI2RtC1R-7tVRGBDQ
    
    Annemarie Brissenden, CPIR
    Investor Relations | Amarillo Gold Corporation
    annemarie.brissenden@amarillogold.com
    416-844-6284
  - KORE Mining
    John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2020 Virtual Conference
    June 23, 2020 at 9:30am ET
    Watch Scott Trebilcock’s presentation here
    https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_aucn-z4BT46KPsnA6VUsMw
  - Wheaton Precious Metals CorpEvent Details
    John Tumazos 2020 Virtual Conference
    Jun 23, 2020
    Wheaton Precious Metals will participate in the John Tumazos 2020 Virtual Conference from June 23-24, 2020. Gary Brown, Wheaton’s SVP & Chief Financial Officer, will present at 1:15pm ET on June 23rd with his presentation available here.https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Ho89mV5eT6-FT-R09DIn1w
    Foran Mining Company
    Upcoming Events
    JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE 2020
    JUNE 24, 2020 – JUNE 24, 2020
    https://www.foranmining.com/investors/calendar-of-events/
    John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference 2020 June 24, 2020 – June 24, 2020 Virtual Conference 2020
    Register for the LIVE webinar with
  - Patrick Soares, President & CEO,Foran Mining Corporationalong withJohn Tumazos onWednesday, June 24, 202010:45 a.m. PDT / 1:45 p.m. EDTREGISTER HEREhttps://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN__UEGtVTHR-6NM1yZ4g7XU
  - Sierra Metals Inc. has added a new event to its website:John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference 2020Click here for a complete listing of Sierra Metals Inc. events.JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE 2020
    JUNE 24, 2020 10:00 AM EST
    Registration: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_0Ur-xx6sTse48svD3DL6NAOr join webinar with the following methods:
    Phone one-tap
    US: talkdesk+13126266799 or
    talkdesk+16468769923
    
    Join by Telephone
    Dial:
    US : +1 312 626 6799 or +1 646 876 9923 or +1 301 715 8592 or +1 669 900 6833 or +1 253 215 8782 or +1 346 248 7799 or +1 408 638 0968
    Webinar ID:
    917 0336 8769
    Password:
    533833
  - Western Copper and GoldJOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH CONFERENCE
    June 23-24, 2020
    We are pleased to return to the annual John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference, this year as a virtual event. President & CEO Paul West-Sells will present on June 23, 2020. Visit the John Tumazos event website for all the details and to join the webcast.
    https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_mvuYGLCcTDmpr_CZqbsTog
  - Telson Mining
    Register for the LIVE Webinar with Telson Mining’s CEO/President Ralph Shearing along with John Tumazos on Wednesday, June 3rd 2020.

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_mdasy8eYSn2NAjIpblnrWQhttp://www.telsonmining.com/home/default.aspx
- US steelmakers react to market forces
  November-December 2019
  Metal Market Magazine
  “It has definitely been more stable than some other US markets,” John Tumazos, president and metals analyst for John Tumazos Very Independent Research, said. He pointed out that, for example, US aluminium mill orders were down by 7.2% year-to-date through August, and that over the same timeframe US paper and paper board production was down by 4.6%.
  
  Cooler construction market
  Meanwhile, Tumazos said that the construction sector, which is a major end-use market for steel, especially steel long products, has not been as strong this year as had been expected. Steel use for construction, however, has been better than overall construction spending data indicates.
  
  While John Tumazos, president and metals analyst for John Tumazos Very Independent Research, sees the US Steel-Big River deal as a “one-off” things rather than a sign of more EAF/integrated mill joint ventures, Stickler is not so sure.
  
  While all this new EAF steelmaking capacity, much of which is almost certain to be brought online, Tumazos said that it will tighten scrap availability.
  “Because of that when we look back at recent steel prices, we will view them as a long-term low.” But I don’t know if the US markets will ever
  
  It will also result in greater EAF market share, which Tumazos estimated could move up to at least 72% of total US steel output from 68% today. “But I don’t know if the US market will get to 80- 85% EAF,” he said.
Detour Gold premium vanishes as investors dump Kirkland Lake shares amid takeover
November 25, 2019
M O E DOIRON/GLOVE AND MAIL
By: Nail McGee Mining Reporter
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/WhctKJVjNdCCNqfrCHtnMvgrlSGCzSmPhlNlCHcQmrSvQQjjmWLLxHFmRzLCsmkqPxDVBnq
During a conference call with Kirkland Lake’s management team, John Tumazos, independent analyst with Very Independent Research, expressed concern that the deal means that Kirkland Lakes will now have to settle for “mortal” as opposed to “superhuman,” returns on investment.
Detour Gold premium vanishes as investors dump Kirkland Lake shares amid takeover
November 21, 2019
Metal Market Magazine
November-December 2019
By: Myra Pinkham
“It has definitely been more stable than some other US markets,” John Tumazos, president and metals analyst for John Tumazos Very Independent Research, said. He pointed out that, for example, US aluminium mill orders were down by 7.2% year-to-date through August, and that over the same timeframe US paper and paper board production was down by 4.6%.
While John Tumazos, president and metals analyst for John Tumazos Very Independent Research, sees the US Steel-Big River deal as a “one-off” thing rather than a sign of more EAF/integrated mill joint ventures, Stickler is not so sure. “Our common goal is to show the world that combining integrated and mini-mill know-how operating capabilities is the winning formula. If we are successful, as I believe we will be, it would certainly make sense for others to follow in our footsteps.”
October 29, 2019
“We deleted a July 26, 2019 article from E & E News, which in our opinion was not accurate or truthful. We had inadvertently posted it on our website for 3 months prior to reading it carefully. It referenced a “stocktwits” posting by some other person named John that it wrongly attributed to us, where we do not distribute research via social media, but rather have written reports with supporting schedules, legal disclaimers and send them to our specific research clients.. Further, E&E News in our opinion misquoted and distorted the interview with us. We commented extensively about the NEPA process, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers evaluations of the mining project, insufficient data on potential financial returns, financing challenges, and related feasibility study issues and E & E News wrote about something else. Further, due to this incident, we have adopted the policy that we will not grant interviews either with environmental reporters or Washington, DC-based reporters because we do not trust their standards of ethics or truth.”
Vale faces complex problems xing Mozambican coal business
Oct. 18, 2019
COAL, EXTRACTIVES, TOP STORY
By: ZITAMAR NEWS.
Link: file:///C:/Users/alici/Downloads/Vale%20faces%20complex%20problems%20fixing%20Mozambican%20coal%20business%20-%20Zitamar.pdf
Brazilian mining giant Vale announced this week a “reassessment” of its strategy for mining coal in
Mozambique, but the company’s problems go back years and are more complex than its
announcement suggests, according to analysts.
In its third quarter production report released on Monday, Vale noted that its loss-making coal operation –
which, discounting a joint venture in China, is based exclusively at the Moatize mines in Mozambique – was
aected by low productivity caused by a fall in equipment availability. Total coal production fell to 2.35m
tonnes in the third quarter, a 26.4% fall year-on-year, with production of more valuable metallurgical coal
falling particularly sharply at 33.2%. The gures relate exclusively to Mozambique, as the Chinese operation
is not reported in production reports.
In response, the miner announced it would implement a new maintenance programme to increase plant
availability and productivity. In addition, it said, a new mining plan would lead to more concentrated ore
deposits and a better product mix of metallurgical to thermal coal.
Full of surprises
According to Gabriela Cortez, an analyst with Banco do Brasil, the latest slump in production reects the
erratic performance of the coal mining operation. “It has not been performing in accordance with what Vale
was expecting… every quarter we have new surprises regarding the operation, the margins and the
production”.
As a result, she added, Vale had been forced to cut its guidance issued last year of producing 14m tonnes of
coal to 11m tonnes. Cortez estimated that the coal business would wipe out $400m of Vale’s earnings in
2019. The company is due to report third quarter results on 24 October, when more information about the
new business strategy for coal is due to emerge, she added.
US-based analyst John Tumazos said that the coal operation had several challenges, including output well
below Vale’s original forecast of 22m tonnes, a poor product mix — the mine has been generating about
18. OCTOBER, 2019
Zitamar Daily Brieng, 18 October
DAILY BRIEFING
21/10/2019 Vale faces complex problems fixing Mozambican coal business – Zitamar
https://zitamar.com/vale-faces-complex-problems-fixing-mozambican-coal-business/ 2/3
17. October, 2019
Mozambique Political Process Bulletin
Frelimo on course for tainted victory
16. October, 2019
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40% metallurgical coal rather than an intended 67% — and issues with the Nacala logistics corridor it codeveloped with Mitsui. Mitsui has been generating a large volume of third-party rail transport demand, he
noted, and safety on the line was also a problem.
While the new mining plan would address the output and product mix issues, Tumazos added, it introduced
new problems in the form of shorter mine life and reduced reserves. Vale acknowledged these issues in its
report, but claimed that “economic value” would rise.
“If the volumes do not reach the original 22m tonne target or have a shorter ‘reserve life,’ then it is harder
to be protable both at the mine site [and because of]the rail tari due to the Mitsui joint venture and the
original sunk cost to build the mine”, Tumazos commented.
Potential sale
“[Vale has] been questioned [as to]if it was better to sell it”, Cortez commented on the coal business. “If they
want to sell something that’s not working, people will not pay the amount they should. They’re going to
repair this operation and then see what they’re going to do in the future.” The market saw the
announcement “with good eyes”, she added. A successful turnaround could raise EBITDA to $100m positive,
or a 4-5% EBITDA margin, she suggested.
Cortez predicted a stoppage at the mine early next year to overhaul equipment. “They’re going to stop the
operations in the rst quarter, and then you will see the ramp-up.” Results could start to be felt in the
second half of the year, she added.
How investors got a heads-up on EPA’s Pebble mine reversal
Friday July 26, 2019
By: Ariel Wittenberg and Dylan Brown
E&E News reporters
Link:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/WhctKJVZjMZrQLtccJmWVLphXTRNGQhsHBQGwtpwBTXfCrNnjFhlwsTFnfVGqLLnwrtvBHg
A week before EPA General Counsel Matt Leopold directed the agency to reconsider a 2014 proposed “veto” that would block the massive Alaskan copper and gold mine, John Tumazos gave his fellow Pebble backers a rundown of a conversation with Ron Thiessen, CEO of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. — the Canadian company behind Pebble LP.
“Leopold should be acting on the [proposed determination] within the next couple of weeks,” the New Jersey-based financial consultant wrote in a post on the Northern Dynasty page of investor social media site StockTwits.

The conversation occurred before Thiessen spoke at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC’s annual Jersey Shore metals conference at the Greek Orthodox Church in Holmdel, N.J.

Tumazos told E&E News that Leopold’smemo, issued seven days after his conversation with Thiessen, was a “foregone conclusion.”

“I don’t think anyone gives a fuck about the veto being thrown out; I think that’s all anticipated,” he said in an interview last week.
Golden blunders: How a string of technical mishaps has hampered Canada’s junior gold miners; Reports overestimating the amount of gold led to junior miners flying high, but the gold was ‘never there’
July 15, 2019
The Globe and Mail
By: Niall McGee
“In order for these things to collapse, half a dozen constituents of people have to not do their jobs,” said John Tumazos, chief executive of New Jersey-based Very Independent Research. “And the reason they don’t do their jobs is that no one wants to kill the golden goose, the gravy train. Even when the project sucks.”
These Companies Wanted Tariffs. How Are They Faring Now?
July 10, 2019
The New York Times
By: Peter Eavis
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/business/economy/companies-tariffs-winners.htmlAs Century paid a lot more for alumina, its profit margins were crushed even as aluminum prices surged. Alumina prices are declining now, but so are aluminum prices. John Tumazos, chief executive of Very Independent Research, which specializes in metals, said the company’s weak profits probably explained why Century’s stock was down more than 60 percent since the aluminum tariffs were announced.
Letter to the editor: More information on U. S. Steel’s Clairton plant
June 25, 2019
TribLive
The writer is owner and CEO of John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
Your article “How residents grapple with life in the shadows of U.S. Steel’s Clairton Plant” (June 15, TribLIVE) appears incomplete in several respects.
First, Clairton supplies almost all of the coke to U.S. Steel’s operations in the U.S. If shut, U.S. Steel would need to import coke to operate and survive and probably import it from China or Russia. Such would not be ideal.
Second, the April 2019 proposal to build a cogeneration electricity plant from Clairton gas products significantly upgrades the environment in collecting pollutants, incinerating them in a contained environment and generating low-cost electricity for the public’s or the company’s use.

Your comments about public health are correct. The Christmas Eve fire caused harm. It cannot be dismissed or excused as a freak event. Over the past decades, U.S. Steel has continuously rebuilt the Clairton coke batteries attempting to control leaks, and federal and state agencies do their job to monitor them. The fines that you referenced communicate and document enforcement actions.

Yours truly is an investment analyst specializing in steel and other manufacturing industries. I have no economic interest in U.S. Steel. However, my father worked 27 years at U.S. Steel Homestead Works, and I grew up nearby. My sister with asthma living in Freedom observes air quality.

John C. Tumazos

Holmdel, N.J.
Interview with Jay Taylor
July 2, 2019
By: Jay Taylor Media
Please find below the audio link, on our website, to the interview with Jay Taylor on July 2. In addition, I have also placed it on You Tube. I have edited the opening and closing to remove most of the intro, music, commercials and reference to the next segment. You are welcome and encouraged to link to and share the content.Audio: https://jaytaylormedia.com/media/JohnTumazos20190702.mp3
You Tube: https://youtu.be/xnVxr_JW4IA

Thank You for your contribution
Viva Gold Corp. Presents at the Tumazos Natural Resource Conference – Holmdel, NJ
CEO and President, Jim Hesketh Will Present at 2:40pm on June 20th.
Presentation Webcast Link
Conference Location: Greek Orthodox Church, 20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, NJ 07733

View Conference Agenda

https://veryindependentresearch.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Agenda-June-19-20-2019-FINAL-3.pdf

Request a Meeting with Management Here.
Appia Energy
Appia Energy Corp. is pleased to present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals Conference on the Jersey Shore, June 19, 2019, in Holmdel, NJ
Tom Drivas, President and CEO, and James Sykes, VP Exploration and Development, will both be on hand to present Appia Energy Corp. on June 19th from 8:35 a.m to 9:10 a.m. EDT. They will provide an update on Appia’s rare earth and uranium properties, with the focus on the Alces Lake critical rare earth property where the company is currently drilling.
The presentation will be webcast at http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/ and a link will be posted on Appia’s website, in case you are unable to listen during the live webcast.
Management is available for one-on-one meetings during the conference. Please contact Tom Drivas at 416 876-3957, to arrange a meeting.

Follow Appia on facebook and twitter!
Superior Gold Inc.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#search/NEWS+TAB?projector=1
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
June 19, 2019 – June 20, 2019
Holmdel, New Jersey, US
McEwen Mining
Webcast – John Tumazos Metals Conference on the Jersey Shore
June 20, 2019
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=mux&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/mux/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=2
Minera Alamos Inc.
June 19-20, 2019 Very Independent Conference in NY
Webcast Link:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=mai.v&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/mai.v/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=2
PDF Presentation:
https://www.mineraalamos.com/site/assets/files/3884/mai_-_very_independent_conference_presentation_june_2.pdf
Novo To Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, June 18, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Novo Resources Corp. (“Novo” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: NVO; OTCQX: NSRPF) is pleased to announce its participation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference in Holmdel, New Jersey. Dr. Quinton Hennigh, Chairman and President of Novo, will be available to meet with investors on June 20th, 2019. In addition to one-on-one meetings, a presentation by Dr. Hennigh will take place on June 20th from 11:30am-12:00pm E.D.T.
The presentation will be webcast live with a link available on the Company’s website where a PDF of the presentation will also be posted.
Live audio link:

http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/
Paramount Gold Nevada Corp.
http://www.paramountnevada.com/paramount-gold-nevada-corp-present-john-tumazos-independent-research-llc-metals-conference/
JTVIR CONFERENCE, June 19-20, 2019
http://www.paramountnevada.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/09.-PZG-Corp-Presentation-JTVIR-CONFERENCE-JUNE-2019.pdf
WEBCAST PRESETATION – CFO, CARLO BUFFONE
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=pzg&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/pzg/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=2
Americas Silver Corporation
June 19, 2019
Metals Conference on the Jersey Shore 2019
20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, New Jersey, USA
FORAN MINING CORPORATION
John Tumazos Conference Presentation June 2019
https://www.foranmining.com/site/assets/files/5867/foran_presentation_june_2019_tumazos.pdf
HDI AMARC
June 19, 2019 (3:05-3:40p.m.)
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference – Presentation by Dr. Diane Nicolson, President & CEO
Transition Metals
Transition Metals to Present at the 2019 John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Sudbury, June 18, 2019 – Transition Metals Corp (XTM – TSX.V) (“Transition”, “the Company”) is pleased to announce that management will be attending and presenting at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference in Holmdel, New Jersey, as well as meeting with investors throughout the conference which will be held on June 19-20. The conference will take place at 20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, New Jersey 07733.
Scott McLean, President & Chief Executive Officer of Transition Metals, will be providing a company update on its various projects to attendees on Wednesday, June 19 at 1:55 pm ET.

This presentation will be available via live webcast and can be accessed at: http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/

http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/
The link will provide an archived playback shortly after the presentation.
SOLITARIO Zinc Corp.
June 19-20, 2019
Solitario Zinc Corp. To Present at the Tumazos Natural Resource Conference, June 19-20 in Holmdel, New Jersey
CEO and President, Chris Herald will present at 1:20pm on June 19th. Click here to view Webcast. For a conference agenda, click here.

http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=xpl&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/xpl/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=1
Telson Mining Corporation
June 19, 2019
JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH CONFERENCE
WEBCAST:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/
Constantine Metal Resources Ltd.
Wednesday June 19 to Thursday 20, 2019
John Tumazos Conference
20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, New Jersey, USA
Presenter: Darwin Green, VP Exploration
For more information:
https://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/
Ascendant Resources Inc.
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference
June 19, 2019
Kimisis Tis Theotokou Greek Orthodox Church
20 Hillcrest Rd. Holmdel, NJ 07733
HDI RATHDOWNEY
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
Holmdel, New Jersey
June 19-20, 2019
Presentation by Dick Whittington, President & CEO
June 19, 2019
Presentation:
http://www.rathdowneyresources.com/i/pdf/rdr/RTH_Corporate_May_1_2019.pdf
Western Uranium & Vanadium
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference 2019
President and CEO George Glasier presenting of the Company
06/19/2019 – 9:10 a.m. (ET) Replay available
Presentation:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/
SSR Mining
John DeCooman presents at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference June 19, 2019 03:05 PM EST
Webcast:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir18/
Hecla Mining
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Hecla Mining Company at Tumazos Metals and Natural resources Conference.
Presentation:
http://ir.hecla-mining.com/Cache/1001253532.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001253532&iid=4130678
Webcast:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=hl&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/hl/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=1
The BSTREETBAND A TRIBUTE TO THE BOSS
Tumazo’s Bruce Bash (Private) Holmdel NJ
June 19, 2019
https://www.bstreetband.com/event/tumazos-bruce-bash-private-holmdel-nj-2/?instance_id=4112
Alamos Gold Inc.
https://www.alamosgold.com/investors/events-and-webcasts/event-details/2019/John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-Metals-Conference/default.aspx
June 19 1:55 P.M.
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference New Jersey, USA
View Webcast:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=agi.to&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/agi.to/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=1
Kirkland Lake Gold
June 19 12:45 P.M. 2019
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, Conference on the Jersey Shore
Royal Gold, Inc
June 19 10:55 A.M. 2019
John Tumazos Metals Conference on the Jersey Shore
View Presentation
https://s1.q4cdn.com/019733279/files/doc_presentations/2019/06/Tumazos-FINAL-(Standard-Screen)-June-2019.pdf
Wheaton Precious Metals
June 19 11:30 AM 2019
John Tumazos Conference
Wheaton Precious Metals will participate in the John Tumazos Conference held June 19-20 in Holmdel, New Jersey
Osisko Gold Royalties
June 19, 2019
Very Independent Research Conference
New Jersey June 19 3:40 P.M. 2019
Webcast will be live
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/register.aspx?conf=vir18&page=or&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir18/or/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=1
Goldcorp’s fall: management under fire as miner slumps
January 12, 2019
The Globe and Mail
John Tumazos, owner and CEO of Very Independent Research in New Jersey, says not only has Goldcorp consistently overpaid for assets without doing sufficient due diligence, the company’s traditionally strong balance sheet has allowed it to spend far too much building mines, leading to poor investment returns.
“They have enough rope to hang themselves and they do.”
Investors spooked by Brazilian Vale’s surprise CEO shake-up
March 3, 2019
Reuters
By: Gram Slattery, Paula Laier
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vale-sa-disaster/investors-spooked-by-brazilian-vales-surprise-ceo-shake-up-idUSKCN1QK0NJ“My worry is that dismissing the top executives leaves the company leaderless or with less experienced leadership and simply adds to the turmoil,” said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, which focuses on mining, metals and forest products.
Gold mines on market after mergers should interest mid-tier mines
January 31, 2019
Reuters
By: Nichola Saminather, John Tilak
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mining-m-a-asset-sales/gold-mines-on-market-after-mergers-should-interest-mid-tier-miners-idUSKCN1PP1ZI
The likely acquirers of mines in joint ventures are the partners, said John Tumazos, Chief Executive Officer of Very Independent Research.
Pan American wins shareholder OK for Tahoe Resources takeover
January 8, 2019
Reuters
By: Ernest Scheyder, Nichola Saminather
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tahoe-resources-m-a-pan-amer-silver/pan-american-wins-shareholder-ok-for-tahoe-resources-takeover-idUSKCN1P22GU
“You can’t blame Pan American for buying Tahoe on the cheap,” said John Tumazos, an investor and mining analyst who owns shares in both companies.
Pan American Silver offers $1.1 billion to buy out Tahoe
November 14, 2018
Reuters
By: Susan Taylor
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tahoe-resources-m-a-pan-amer-silver/pan-american-silver-offers-1-1-billion-to-buy-out-tahoe-idUSKCN1NJ0Z
John Tumazos, who holds modest stakes in both Pan American and Tahoe, said Tahoe seems to be selling “at the worst moment” with silver prices down 17 percent from last year and Tahoe shares 90 percent below their 2014 peak.
Pan American Agrees to Buy Silver Miner for $1.1 Billion
Nov. 14, 2018
Bloomberg
By: Danielle Bochove and Laura Millan Lombrana
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-american-agrees-buy-silver-150632553.html“Why did you choose to sell out now?” John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, asked Tahoe management during the call. “Why not hold out for six or 12 months for a better moment or a better option?”
ATI signs agreement with NLMK for services at Brackenridge facility
Oct. 18, 2018
TribLive
By: BRIAN C. RITTMEYERWhile NLMK USA has its own rolling facilities, they are not as modern as ATI’s, which industry analyst John Tumazos described as “the mother of all rolling mills” with impressive capabilities.
Tariffs on steel imports could hurt the deal by not making it economical for NLMK USA to import the slabs for ATI to roll, said Tumazos, a Wilkinsburg native and owner and CEO of Very Independent Research in New Jersey.

The 25 percent tariff, which started March 1, affects steel imports from all nations except for Brazil, Argentina, South Korea and Australia, Tumazos said. Those four nations have quotas.

NLMK USA imports about 2 million tons of slabs a year, Tumazos said. It is one of five major carbon slab importers seeking an exemption from the tariffs.

Tumazos said he does not know where the slabs NLMK USA will be bringing to ATI will come from. He said negotiations for the agreement started before the tariffs

Tariffs on steel imports could hurt the deal by not making it economical for NLMK USA to import the slabs for ATI to roll, said Tumazos, a Wilkinsburg native and owner and CEO of Very Independent Research in New Jersey.

The 25 percent tariff, which started March 1, affects steel imports from all nations except for Brazil, Argentina, South Korea and Australia, Tumazos said. Those four nations have quotas.

NLMK USA imports about 2 million tons of slabs a year, Tumazos said. It is one of five major carbon slab importers seeking an exemption from the tariffs.

Tumazos said he does not know where the slabs NLMK USA will be bringing to ATI will come from. He said negotiations for the agreement started before the tariffs

Tumazos noted that while the stock market was down late Thursday afternoon by about 1.3 percent, ATI was down 3.2 percent.

That’s a sign that the announcement of the agreement with NLMK USA “impresses the market less than what somebody expected.”

Asked if this is a good deal for ATI, Tumazos said, “They lose nothing by doing the deal.
Needle coke supply falling short of demand
October 2, 2018
American Metal Market
By:Michael Cowden, Chicago; Lisa Gordon, Pittsburgh; and Dom Yanchunas, New York, contributed to this report“Needle coke supply is almost fixed, but world steel output goes up and down. So last year world steel output rose 5.3%, and the first seven months of this year it rose 5%,” John Tumazos, president of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, said. “Steel output is up and the demand for electrodes is up [for] two straight years, where the needle coke supply doesn’t change a lot.””Chances are, whenever the prices of electrodes rise five or ten-fold, [steelmakers] change their practice to use fewer electrodes,” Tumazos said. “One way to do that would be to buy cleaner scrap, it melts better. More [dense] scrap – or less than 1% waste rather than more than 10% waste – conducts electricity better.”Tumazos also pointed to a developing market for graphite electrodes, which in turn supports needle coke demand: electric and hybrid vehicles, which he said account for 0.6-0.7% of global automotive sales.
Three decades ago, a different industry faced negotiators in U. S. Steel talks
Sept. 16, 2018
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic“U.S. Steel has a lot to lose sleep over,” said John Tumazos, an independent metals industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J..This story was updated at 9 a.m. Sept. 17 to identify analyst John Tumazos.
U. S. Steel sweetens its offer to union workers
Sept. 12, 2018
Pittsburgh Post-Gazett
By Len Boselovic“It is incumbent on U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal not to have strikes while the government is restricting imports,” said John Tumazos, an independent metals industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J. “The steel industry has the most sympathetic government support ever.”
United Steelworkers to threaten strike as contract talks worsen
Sept. 12, 2018
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Daniel Moore
Link:
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/09/01/United-Steelworkers-threaten-strike-authorization-U-S-Steel-contract/stories/201809010095Hours before a labor contract covering 16,000 U.S. Steel workers was set to expire, leaders with the United Steelworkers encouraged their membership on Saturday to give them the authority to call a strike amid deteriorating negotiations with the Pittsburgh steelmaker.
In a letter sent to members, union leadership said that strike authorization votes — which if approved would permit the Downtown-based union to declare a strike with 48 hours’ notice — will take place at each local union chapter next week.
“Your local union leadership will return home in the coming days and will quickly schedule informational meetings and strike authorization votes with you,” the letter states. “That authorization is necessary to bring them into the real world.”
The letter went on to say that union leadership will meet again in Pittsburgh, after the vote, to try to hammer out a deal before a strike might be called.
The letters are a sign of souring contract negotiations between the United Steelworkers and U.S. Steel, which have spanned three months. The union claimed the company has put forth paltry wage increases and demanded cuts in health care that would double deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses.
Union members rallied and marched on Thursday at U.S. Steel’s Clairton coke plant ahead of the contract expiration at 11:59 p.m. on Saturday.
“Hopefully a strike will not be necessary, but the company continues to ignore the workforce’s needs,” the letter added. “You’ve shown your solidarity in the rallies this week, and we need to demonstrate it again with the strike authorization votes.”
U.S. Steel did not answer a request for comment on Saturday, and a USW spokesperson declined to comment beyond the letters.
Labor experts characterize strikes as highly unlikely events. Michael LeRoy, a University of Illinois law professor who specializes in labor relations, told the Post-Gazette earlier this week there were only seven strikes last year involving more than 1,000 workers compared with 69 such strikes in 1986 and 276 strikes in 1976.
The last time the union struck at U.S. Steel facilities was in 1986, when 22,000 union members walked off the job for six months. After the dust cleared, the union agreed to a contract that imposed steep wage and benefit cuts.
The union is also negotiating with ArcelorMittal, whose contract with about 15,000 United Steelworkers members was set to expire at the same time. Negotiations with the world’s largest steelmaker do not at this stage involve talk of strike authorization, according to an update posted on the union’s website.
The union has agreed to keep negotiating with both ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel under the current contracts past their Saturday expiration date.
Daniel Moore: dmoore@post-gazette.com, 412-263-2743 and Twitter @PGdanielmoore. Updated at 5:14 p.m. on Sept. 1, 2018.
Contract deadline looms for U.S. Steel, steelworkers union
Aug. 29, 2018
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
Link:
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/08/29/Contract-deadline-looms-for-U-S-Steel-steelworkers-union/stories/201808280145“The business climate right now is good. I would expect the union would want their share of the pie,” said John Tumazos, a metals industry analysts based in Holmdel, N.J.Mr. Tumazos said current high steel prices make it in both sides’ interests to make peace, either by Saturday’s deadline or at a later date.
BHP Expects Samarco Debt Negotiations to Begin Within Next Six to Nine Months
Aug. 24, 2018
Reorg Research
By Carolina GuerraBHP Expects Samarco Debt Negotiations to Begin Within Next Six to Nine MonthsBHP Billiton officials anticipate that negotiations with Samarco bondholders will begin within the next six to nine months, while Vale and Samarco refused to provide comment, after requests from Reorg Research.Since the Samarco disaster in November 2015, Samarco shareholders Vale and BHP have focused on dealing with compensation issues, while negotiations with creditors have not yet commenced. Sources Reorg recently spoke to expected negotiations to start in the next few weeks.BHP’s asset president for joint ventures Bryan Quinn said in a recent interview with Brazilian newspaper Valor Econômico that negotiations with creditors are likely to start within six to nine months, while adding that first, the company needs to “align the plan with its partners.” Quinn added that “after obtaining economic rationale and visibility, the operations are sure to be resumed.”Vale, on the other hand, told Reorg it expects to resume Samarco operations as soon as possible, but refused to comment on debt negotiations.Investors expect that the companies’ next step would be to finalize negotiations with local town halls, then present a plan to creditors. Earlier this month, Renova Foundation, the entity handling compensation issues after Vale, BHP and Samarco, said it obtained a permit from the City Construction Secretariat of the Town of Mariana, in Minas Gerais state, to start resettlement construction works in Bento Rodrigues, one of the regions most damaged by the dam failure. Other regions such as Paracatu de Baixo and Gesteira are next.Vale analyst John Tumazos, from Very Independent Research, told Reorg that it is difficult to have clarity until the various financial damage lawsuits conclude and Samarco obtains a permit to restart. “Without a restart permit, Samarco has no revenue other than the fundings of partners BHP and Vale,” Tumazos said. “BHP and Vale agreed to table discussions for one to buy out the other until the litigations end, as it is impossible to value either half of Samarco until litigations conclude,” he added. Tumazos said Samarco is “helpless” until it receives funding from BHP and Vale.Another source following the situation did not discard the possibility of Vale acquiring BHP’s stake in Samarco. “There is not yet a plan with deadlines and debt issues on the table … We still think that after the companies negotiate with local authorities, it is likely to negotiate with creditors and acquire BHP’s part,” the other source told Reorg. BHP, as a response, told Reorg that it does not comment on market “speculations.”In June, Vale said it expected to contribute about 575 million reais ($141 million using current rates) in the second half of this year in expenses related to Samarco, while BHP said it would provide about $211 million to Renova for the same period.Since the disaster, Renova said it already disbursed R$4 billion in social and environmental programs.Samarco’s 2022 4.152% notes were trading in the 74 area, according to Finra. The company’s 2023 5.75% notes reported recent deals in the 73/75 area, while the 2024 5.375% notes last traded at a price of $71.50.Samarco declined to comment for this report.
Nucor Corp emerges as front runner to acquire Big River
August 23, 2018
American Metal Market
By Michael Cowden (Dom Yanchunas, New York, contributed to this article).Big River Steel might be worth $5 billion based on the 6.6 million tons of steelmaking capacity it would have once the Osceola mill doubles capacity in 2019 – something that will allow it to expand into high-value electrical steels – and should it build a similar mill in Brownsville in 2021, John Tumazos, president of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, wrote in a research note earlier this month.And the company might also be worth more when Section 232 quotas and tariffs – which have encouraged idled US steelmaking capacity to restart – are no longer in effect, Tumazos added.“We believe Big River Steel would enjoy a larger competitive advantage in bad markets, where competitors fail and its superior profitability would be more unique,” he wrote.
Upbeat but stressed in the United States
July-Aug. AMM Magazine 2018While a significant pick-up in steel and metals demand in the United States is welcomed by its service centers and is fueling an optimistic business outlook, challenges – such as those created by uncertainties about future government policy, balancing inventories and the strain that more shipments place on logistics – are tempering their positive mood, reports Myra PinkhamUS metals service centers are having a very good year – perhaps the best they have had in the past ten years. But they are concerned about the impact of trade and transportation issues, and what appears to be a growing level of uncertainty about the future for business.
After a long period of decline, metals service center shipments started to turn upwards last year and they are continuing to build on that positive trend, helped by robust demand across all major end-use market sectors, according to Bob Weidner, president and chief executive officer of the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI), which represents carbon steel, stainless steel and aluminium distributors.
MSCI reports that US service center steel shipments, including stainless steel shipments, were up 4.7% year-on-year in May. US service center aluminium shipments were up by 6.1% over the same timeframe. Canadian service center shipments were also up – by 1.5% for steel and by 3.1% for aluminium.
The story is similar for US copper and brass service centers. Garret Herringdon, who is president of the Copper and Brass Servicenter Association (CBSA) as well as general manager of Southern Copper & Supply Co Inc, Pelham, Alabama, observes that while service centers’ red metals shipments have been strong, albeit at a steady level, for the past year or so, the rate of growth has strengthened over the past three to four months and could continue to trend upwards. CBSA reports that US service center red metals shipments were up by 6.9% year-on-year in April, including a 4.9% increase for copper products and a 9.0% increase for brass and other copper alloys.
This comes as the US economy, including a broad number of metal-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, construction and energy sectors, are seen as being strong and growing. While slightly slower than some predictions, the US economy continues to grow more quickly than most other regions in the world – 2.0% in the first quarter by contrast with 1.2% a year earlier and 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index remains quite strong at 60.2% in June – its highest level since September 2017. This, according to Christopher Plummer, managing director of Metal Strategies Inc, West Chester, Pennsylvania, comes on the back of a 3.4% increase in US industrial output. This includes a 32.2% increase in North American heavy-duty truck production, a 13.5% increase in US construction equipment, and a 5.0% rise in US farm equipment output – as well as a 6.4% increase in US home appliance shipments. Also, even though year-to-date US auto output was down slightly – by 1.3% – Plummer says that given that May light-vehicle production was up 5.0% year-on year, it could be up for the year as a whole.
“While North American light vehicle output might have flattened somewhat, still over 17 million vehicles are expected to be produced this year, which is pretty high,” MSCI’s Weidner points out. Also, according to Bob Mraz, vice-president of sales and marketing for Exton, Pennsylvania-based TW Metals Inc, metals demand by the aerospace sector has been on the rise due to increased production of not only commercial planes, but also business jets, helicopters and drones. This has not only meant demand for more aluminium and stainless steel but, helped by increased use of composites, more titanium use in both aerospace airframes and engines.
Energy and construction
Rising energy prices have also boosted both ferrous and non-ferrous metals demand. CBSA’s Herringdon says that it is for oil and gas applications that copper and brass service centers are seeing the biggest impact. There has also been a big uptick in steel energy pipe and tube demand, especially for seamless tubulars, Plummer says, noting that demand for seamless oil country tubular goods (OCTG) was up by 31.0% year-on-year and 22.3% year-to-date through May. All indications are that pipe and tube demand will continue to rise, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rising over $74/barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) and Brent crude oil prices at nearly $79/barrel in early July. Also, Nymex natural gas prices have been hovering at about $2.95 per mmBtu.
Plummer also notes that the US construction sector has been strong this year, with steelrelated demand from that sector up by 8% year-on-year in May, including a 20.3% increase in housing starts, a 6.1% increase in non-residential construction and a 7.7% increase in public works construction. The improvement has come even without the long-anticipated infrastructure investment plan that President Trump has been actively promoting. Congress is not expected to consider such legislation until after the mid-term elections in November at the earliest.
Pent-up demand
Several factors have been supporting service center metals demand. This, according to Zachary Siegal, vice-president of strategic development at Bedford, Ohio-based Olympic Steel Inc, includes the enormous amount of pent-up demand over the last several years as companies are still continuing to recover from the global financial crisis of 2008-09. “Also, the recent tax and regulatory reform has definitely helped our customers to be more competitive and has provided additional certainty on a go-forward basis,” Siegal says.
“Because of this, including changes that have been made regarding depreciation of capital expenditures, we have seen a lot of capital projects requiring the use of industrial metals moving from the drawing board and getting implemented or executed,” Weidner says.
Also, consumer sentiment as reported by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan was up again in June to 98.2 points, just slightly below expectations, largely due to the uncertainty about the ultimate impact – including the potential of a trade war – of the steel and aluminium Section 232 tariffs.
Especially with mill lead times generally extending –including some reported instances of metals producers falling behind and delivering products even later than promised – service centers have been benefitting from these trends. “A lot of customers are asking service centers to take on more roles, including holding more inventories for them or doing more processes for them,” Herringdon points out. “Many of our customers are asking us to act as a one-stop shop.”
Challenge of uncertainty
The US metals service center market is not without its challenges, not least of which is a general air of uncertainty about what the future will bring. “There are so many unknowns right now, especially those related to trade issues including the Section 232 tariffs, other trade cases and the possibility of a trade war,” says Stephen Armstrong, president and chief executive officer of Birmingham, Alabama-based O’Neal Steel.
He says that while it is still too early to tell what the long-term ramifications will be, there is always the risk that there will be some unintended consequences or fallout from the tariffs that could eventually swing or stifle demand. “While I don’t see that happening in the short term, it is too early to tell what will happen longer term.”
“The idea is to balance the merchandise trade balance, which is a good goal, but I’m not sure what is being done will accomplish that,” Bill Hickey, president of Lapham-Hickey Steel Corp, states.
Already supply has begun to tighten, notes Chris Billman, market research manager for Cleveland-based Majestic Steel and author of the service center’s CORE Report. “This is not just because of increases in demand,” he says. “Supply started tightening in 2016 because of anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) trade cases and has now tightened further with the Section 232 tariffs, which have resulted in extended mill lead times, which will move out further with the surprise decision by the Trump administration to lift the temporary exclusion of the Nafta countries and the European Union from the Section 232 tariffs.”
Very few, if any, service centers expected the Trump administration to place tariffs on those countries – the United States’ top trading partners, according to Lisa R. Goldenberg, president of Fort Washington, Pennsylvania-based Delaware Steel Co. That, she says, has caused a bit of a frenzy at many service centers. “Everyone is rushing around trying to figure out what to do.” Tariffs on Canadian imports are perhaps the largest concern, Billman says, noting that 25-30% of all US steel imports come from Canada.
He agrees with Armstrong that in the short- to medium-term it will probably not be much of a problem, although in the longer term it could create problems in the supply chain, especially a recent move on both the mill and service center levels toward more long-term contracts.
That is also assuming that the tariffs on Nafta nations will stay in place long term, which is far from a certainty. TW Metals’ Mraz, like many other service center executives, believes that this tariff is a bargaining tactic for the renegotiation of the Nafta agreement. “I would be very surprised if those tariffs are still in place by October or November,” he says.
One thing that is for sure is that the tariffs have created a lot of uncertainty. In fact, Jim Barnett, chairman and chief executive officer of Grand Steel Products Inc, Wixon, Michigan, says that the tariffs have been hanging over the market all year, making it hard for service centers to know how to react, as they do not know whether there will be enough available metal to meet customer needs or whether it could adversely impact demand should some service center customers be priced out of the market.
For example, American Metal Market’s Midwest steel hot-rolled coil index moved up to $915.60/short ton as of the end of June, which is up by 55.6% from $588.60/ton a year earlier. By comparison, the LME aluminium price was $2,163 per tonne at the end of June, which, while down from about $2,300 per tonne the previous month, was 14.6% higher than a year earlier. Barnett says that he has already heard that some of his company’s customers are looking at bringing some duty-free stamped parts in from overseas, counter to what had been a recent trend to buy components produced in the United States instead of those from China and elsewhere in the world. “If this continues it could eventually impact our sales,” he says. Goldenberg says that concerns that this could result in a price correction is making some service centers “not just cautious, but paranoid and neurotic” about their inventories, caught between the need to have enough inventories to meet their customers’ needs and ensuring that, should prices come down suddenly, they are not caught with too much high-priced inventories. “This is especially important given that companies know that the next presidential tweet could cause things to change dramatically,” she says.
Tightening supply
The tightening of supply is causing greater pricing volatility than normal and, with domestic mills’ order books filling up faster than some have anticipated, it is creating a have/have-not division among different service centers, depending on their inventory management and metal buying strategies, according to John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC. He explains that companies that are historically import buyers will have more problems getting metal than those that have strong buying relationships with domestic mills because they have to make new friends and will need to pay a higher price for their metal.
“Trees don’t grow to the sky, so at some point in time pricing is going to reach a crescendo and we want to make sure that we are appropriately inventoried for whenever that might happen,” Siegal points out, noting that in this environment Olympic Steel has been very mindful about how it is turning its inventories, how it lives up to its commitments to its customers and to be disciplined about what inventory it brings in. There are other factors that come into play. For example, Craig Mathiason, president and chief operating officer of Jemison Metals, says he believes that his company has a competitive edge in this marketplace because not only are all its purchases done on a contractual basis, but it has technologies in place to meet its customer demand even in times of tight supply. Mike Young, president and chief operating officer at Klein Steel Service Inc, while admitting that he could not with 100% certainty say what impact a possible trade war could have on his business as he – nor anyone else in the industry – has never experienced a trade war, says he is confident that his company’s strategy of turning inventories as quickly as possible and managing their business as they have in the past – week by week, month by month and quarter by quarter – will enable it to successfully adjust to the realities to the marketplace. Herringdon says that some service centers have found that in this business environment it is difficult to inventory everything that anyone might need. “While we would like to be everything to everyone, Southern Copper and several other service centers aren’t stocking as many different sizes and alloys as we used to, keeping them more finely tuned to what most of our customers need,” he explains. This could provide an opportunity for some other service centers to fill in that gap. For example, Barnett says that sales to other distributors accounts for 20-25% of Grand Steel’s sales.
Impact on aluminium
Service centers appear to be even more challenged when it comes to aluminium than for steel. One reason is that, according to Tumazos, about 60% of the primary aluminium consumed in the United States is imported, therefore subject to the 10% Section 232 tariffs.
However, according to O’Neal Steel’s Armstrong, while the Section 232 tariffs are having an impact, it has been the AD/CVD cases – both on aluminium common alloy and foil – that have had the biggest impact upon stifling aluminium imports – both from China and elsewhere in the world – making it very difficult for service centers to procure the aluminium that they need. “A healthy amount of imports is needed to keep things in balance and to help supply a market that isn’t self-sufficient yet,” he points out. That is even with recent announcements by several companies that they will be restarting idled US smelter capacity. Matt Meenan, a spokesman for the Aluminum Association, observes that there is still only about 2 million tonnes of available aluminium smelter production in the United States (including still-idled capacity), while last year the US market consumed about 5.5 million tonnes of primary aluminium. Despite this, Tumazos says it would take a 50%, not 10%, tariff to encourage the building of another aluminium smelter in the US, given the high cost of power there. Availability is much less of a problem for steel, Tumazos says, noting that domestic mills have enough production capacity to supply 80% of US steel demand
US steel service center shipments
Shipments % Ch. Yr-Age YTD % Ch. Yr-Age
J-17 3.30 9.4% 3.30 9.4%
F-17 3.27 1.7% 6.57 5.4%
M-17 3.65 9.7% 10.22 6.9%
A-17 3.38 -4.2% 13.60 3.9%
M-17 3.43 7.0% 17.03 4.5%
J-17 .42 1.1% 20.45 3.9%
J-17 3.41 1.4% 23.86 3.6%
A-17 3.47 2.7% 27.33 3.5%
S-17 3.72 0.0% 31.05 3.0%
O-17 4.42 10.7% 35.47 3.9%
N-17 3.17 6.8% 38.63 4.2%
D-17 2.63 2.8% 41.26 4.1%
J-18 3.44 4.3% 3.44 4.3%
F-18 3.44 5.2% 6.88 4.7%
M-18 3.59 -1.7% 10.47 2.4%
A-18 3.82 13.0% 14.29 5.1%
M-18 3.59 4.7% 17.88 5.0%
Source: Metal Strategies IncUS steel service center inventory
Inventory % Ch. Yr-Ago YTD % Ch. Yr-AgoJ-17 7.26 -8.3% 7.26 -8.3%
F-17 7.33 -6.4% 7.30 -7.4%
M-17 8.70 -6.2% 7.77 -6.9%
A-17 7.10 -6.0% 7.60 -6.7%
M-17 7.13 -6.0% 7.50 -6.6%
J-17 7.70 -4.9% 7.54 -6.3%
J-17 8.64 -3.4% 7.69 -5.8%
A-17 7.70 -1.9% 7.69 -5.4%
S-17 8.00 2.4% 7.73 -4.5%
O-17 8.31 5.6% 7.79 -3.5%
N-17 8.71 7.9% 7.87 -2.5%
D-17 7.67 6.8% 7.85 -1.8%
J-18 7.70 6.0% 7.70 6.0%
F-18 7.72 5.4% 7.71 5.7%
M-18 9.39 7.9% 8.27 6.5%
A-18 7.70 8.5% 8.13 7.0%
M-18 7.43 4.3% 7.99 6.5%
Source: Metal Strategies IncFurther challenges
While trade is a big concern, Olympic Steel’s Siegal maintains that two even larger challenges for metals service centers are transportation and labor issues. MSCI’s Weidner agrees that, with the US unemployment rate falling to a 17-year low of 3.8% in May, that is making it hard for service centers to find the new qualified employees they need: “For the first time in recent history there are more job openings than there are people applying for them.” This, Hickey notes, is not just because of the low unemployment rate, but because of a skills gap with many college students ignoring the trades when looking for jobs on graduation, at the same time as many baby boomers are retiring. Similar factors are causing a shortage of truck drivers, especially drivers for long hauls. This is an issue affecting whether a service center has its own dedicated truck fleets or is reliant upon common carriers to haul all their loads. Plummer notes that, even though truck and truck trailer production has recently picked up by over 30% year-todate, that has provided very little relief with the worsening of the driver shortage. Driver scarcity has been exacerbated by stricter hours-of-service regulations and the recent requirement for each truck to utilize electronic logging devices. “Trucking is a blinking red light that we are challenged with and that we struggle with every day,” Armstrong declares, especially with the available load per available truck currently being at a recent high, reaching approximately 100 flatbed loads per truck in April, up from about 40 loads per truck a year earlier and about 20 loads per truck in April 2016. Frequently service centers utilize their own trucks for at least a portion of their deliveries to customers. Similarly, the deliveries from their mill suppliers come in via a combination of dedicated and common carrier trucks, so if they have a problem getting trucks it could make an already-late mill delivery even later. Armstrong says that even through O’Neal Steel has its own dedicated fleet of trucks, it uses common carriers every day for a variety of reasons, including excess capacity needs or when one of their own truck drivers is on vacation or calls in sick. Given that the problem is not so much the availability of trucks but of truck drivers, Hickey says that one possible solution in the future could be driverless, or autonomous, trucks. “But there are still some issues that need to be worked out before that occurs,” he added. Service centers today do whatever they can to partner with trucking companies to be viewed as a destination and/or customer of choice. This, Klein Steel’s Young points out, includes loading and unloading trucks quickly and scheduling appointments so that the driver does not have to sit around for long windows of time. “We try to make sure we can offer full truck loads,” which includes convincing customers to purchase larger volumes at a time, Hickey says. Service centers are looking at other creative solutions to this problem, including also doing more partnering with mills to help get metal in quicker. That, Armstrong says, includes having drop trailers at certain mills or offering to pick up some of the loads with the service center’s trucks. Another impact of the trucking shortage has been that freight rates, according to Majestic Steel’s Billman, have escalated by as much as 25-30% in certain lanes over the past year. Given their tight margins, service centers pass along as much of this cost as possible, Olympic Steel’s Siegal says. “It is a cost that we can’t absorb. By and large our customers understand that because they are feeling the same pain when they are shipping their products.” Barring any surprises, MSCI’s Weidner says that he is optimistic that 2018 will continue to be a good year for metals service centers: “Consumer confidence is up. Metal shipments have been up across the board and just about every major metals end-use market seems to be heading in the right direction.
US cold-rolled, coated steel prices flat
Aug. 20, 2018
American Metal Market
By: Dom Yanchunas (Yvonne Li and Patrick Fitzgerald, both New York, contributes to this report).U.S. Steel “is making investment to maintain, modernize and improve the quality of the existing capacity, and it is not a capacity expansion,” said John Tumazos, president of John Tumazos Very Independent Research
ECONOMY
Aug. 10, 2018
Istoe Dinheiro
Link:
https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/uma-nova-vale/A new Vale
Since Fabio Schvartsman took over the company a little over a year ago, the miner’s shares have floated on the stock exchange and the company regained market confidence with the investment grade of the three largest rating agencies. Understand what has changed and what are the prospects for the businessSchvartsman, CEO of Vale: “Our purpose is not volume, we are working clearly to maximize prices” (Credit: Leo Pinheiro / Valor)
Pedro Arbex
03/08/18 – 11h00 – Updated 03/08/18 – 03h37
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In November 2015, Vale faced a “perfect storm”. Iron ore prices, the company’s main commodity, had plummeted more than 60 percent since the beginning of 2014, and the miner had just been involved in one of the biggest socio-environmental tragedies in Brazilian history. On May 5, a Samarco dam (a joint venture controlled by Vale and Australia’s BHP Billiton) broke, flooding the Mariana region with mineral waste, killing 19 people and damaging the image of the largest the world’s iron ore. The scenario put the company, founded in 1942 by Getúlio Vargas, in a dramatic situation: its market value, for example, fell to R $ 61 billion – the same level as in 2002.
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Three years later, the picture is the opposite. The black clouds have dissipated and Vale lives today in a real sky of Brigadier. The sector is going through a good moment, iron ore prices have recovered and the company presents record results of production and sales. Almost nothing seems able to shake the good winds that blow in the mining company. At least, in the perception of its president, the São Paulo native Fabio Schvartsman. “The only risk to Vale is that the global economy will turn upside down,” he said, squandering confidence at a conference on second quarter results on July 26. “Except that, we believe that our operation will continue to produce good news.”
The 64-year-old’s optimism is not for nothing. Since taking office in May last year, Vale has plenty of reasons to celebrate. Shares of the miner have appreciated nearly 30 percent this year – more than 75 percent in the last twelve months – and the company regained investment grade rating by the world’s top three rating agencies, the latest one of which is Moody’s, less than two weeks ago. To complete the picture, the company recorded a turnover of R $ 59 billion in the first half, 18% higher than the same period last year, and had a production never seen before. There were more than 178 million tonnes of iron ore mined from its mines, the highest value in the miner’s history for the first half.
Stockholders also seem to have good reason to celebrate. On July 25, the miner announced that it will repurchase $ 1 billion in shares, something that has not happened since 2011, and compensate the holders of its shares with $ 2 billion in dividends, to be paid in September. “The repurchase is a very positive signal. It shows that the company is confident with its future results, especially its cash generation, “says Sabrina Cassiano, an analyst at Coinvalores. For shareholders, this repurchase also contributes because it reduces the number of papers in circulation, increasing earnings per share.
Murilo Ferreira was CEO of Vale from 2011 to 2017. Much of the current success is due to actions taken by him (Credit: Stefano Martini / Ag. Istoe)
From the end of 2015 until today, a series of changes in the scenario and in the operation contributed to the turn of Vale. In addition to recovering the price of iron ore from US $ 39 per tonne to the current US $ 66, another key factor was the start-up of the Eliezer Batista mine, S11D, the biggest project in Vale’s history.Located in Pará, in the northern region of the country, the operation is an expansion of the Carajás complex and began operating in December 2016. Up to now, approximately US $ 6.4 billion has been invested in the project. When fully operational, which is expected to occur in 2020, the mine is expected to add 90 million tonnes to Vale’s annual production capacity – or about 20% of the total. In the first half of the year, S11D was responsible for the extraction of more than 26 million tons.
The importance of the project goes beyond the increase in production volume. The big benefit is actually the improvement of the sales mix, with the extraction of a product with a much higher quality, and at a low cost. Of Vale’s three production systems (Southeast, South and North – encompassing Carajás and S11D), the North is where the company has the lowest cost of production, mainly because of logistics. There, a large railway infrastructure was built for the outflow of production at the Ponta da Madeira Maritime Terminal, in São Luís (MA). In addition, the ore extracted in the region has an iron concentration well above the average. While the benchmark of the sector, used in the quotations of the commodity, has an iron content of 62%, in the ore of S11D this value is 66.7%. “The S11D started operating in three ways: reduced investment; increased volume by diluting costs; and improved the quality of Vale’s product mix, “said Glauco Legat, chief analyst at brokerage Spinelli.
With a purer ore, the company obtains a higher value in the sale, the so-called premium, besides guaranteeing a more constant and predictable demand for the product. In the second quarter of this year, the difference between 65% iron ore and 62% iron ore was on average at US $ 20 per tonne, according to the company. In other words, while the price of normal ore was around $ 65 per ton, the best quality produced by Vale was around $ 85. According to Schvartsman, the strategy ensures that the company can maintain a good performance regardless of market conditions, since there is now a shortage of high quality ores and a high demand for this type of product. “The Chinese, in particular, are showing great interest in Brazilian ore.
At Vale, premium products such as Carajás and blended products – which are a mixture of different kinds of ores – already represent 77% of the company’s total sales. And the mining company’s intention is to continue investing in the differentiation of its products. “Our purpose is not volume, we are working hard to maximize prices,” Schvartsman said.THE DEBT FALL For analysts heard by MONTEIRO, another fundamental aspect of Vale’s recent strategy, which helps to understand the significant valuation of its actions, is its focus on debt reduction, which was extremely high at the end of 2015 The decision to reduce leverage was already taken in the management of Murilo Ferreira, who presided over the mining company from 2011 to May last year. Still in Ferreira’s time, Vale began to divest itself of several assets, in a process that secured more than US $ 10 billion in cash from the company. Some examples were the sale of its fertilizer area – acquired by Mosaic for $ 2.5 billion by the end of 2016 – and some cargo ships.
It was when Schvartsman took over the presidency, however, that the process began to gain traction. At the end of last year, the executive set the goal of reducing the company’s net debt to $ 10 billion by 2019. At the time, debt was $ 21 billion. The goal must be completed before the deadline. In the second quarter, the amount has already dropped to $ 11.5 billion, which represents a leverage of 0.7 times its cash generation, an extremely healthy level, analysts view. “Vale comes from an extremely strong process of deleveraging. In less than three years, the debt went from almost R $ 30 billion to the current R $ 11.5 billion, “says Karel Luketic, chief analyst at XP Investimentos.
The strong indebtedness of the company originated in the so-called commodity supercycle, which occurred between 2003 and 2012. In the period, there was an expansion of the global economy and a rise in the price of commodities. Iron ore reached record prices, surpassing US $ 200 per ton. Vale, and the mineral industry in general, invested high figures in increasing production and new business, generating a significant growth of indebtedness. Roger Agnelli (1959-2016), who commanded the mining company from 2001 to 2011, bought, for example, Canadian competitor Inco for $ 13 billion and fertilizer Fosfertil for another $ 3.6 billion.
Tough dispute: Australian Rio Tinto is one of Vale’s main competitors. Australia’s mining companies have an advantage because of their proximity to Asian countries
Schvartsman’s entry into the presidency has ushered in a new phase of the company, with a vision of greater austerity in the business and a clear goal of tidying the house. The executive joined Vale after presiding over Klabin, one of the largest producers of pulp and paper, for more than six years. “He has been a very successful management at Klabin and has already entered Vale with a large focus on operational efficiency and financial management of the company,” says Fabio Padovani, a partner in business management consultancy Signium.
O executivo ingressou na mineradora também com a missão de colocar em marcha uma grande reorganização societária, com a extinção da Valepar, holding que controlava a Vale desde sua privatização em 1997. Para isso, a empresa migrou para o Novo Mercado, segmento da B3 que exige um grau maior de governança corporativa, e que demanda um controle pulverizado da empresa. O passo foi dado no final do ano passado, quando a Vale converteu também todas as suas ações preferenciais em ordinárias (com direito a voto). A mudança foi muito bem vista por diminuir o risco de ingerência política na Vale, que mesmo após 20 anos de sua privatização sofria com pressões do governo federal – parte da desconfiança do mercado financeiro com o ex-CEO Murilo Ferreira vinha de sua indicação pela ex-presidente Dilma Rousseff.
Valepar, which controlled the company so far, held about 53% of the capital. The holding company was made up of BNDESPar, Bradespar, mining company Mitsui and the main state pension funds (Previ, Funcef, Petros and Funcesp, which were meeting at Litel). With the corporate change, Valepar ceased to exist and the funds started to have a direct stake in Vale. But there is still a legal dispute over the issue. Elétron, the investment fund of Daniel Dantas’ entrepreneur, won a favorable decision on a 10-year dispute with Bradespar and Litel. Elétron claims that it has not been able to exercise a call option of 37.5 million shares of Valepar and charges its former members for losses. On July 25, a judge from the 5th Business Court of Rio de Janeiro approved an expert report that sets the indemnity at R $ 4 billion. Bradespar and Litel contest the award because of “a series of inaccuracies”. The dispute continues in the Court of Justice of Rio de Janeiro.
The largest project: the S11D mine, located in Pará, in the north of the country, went into operation in December 2016 and demanded investments that surpassed US $ 6.4 billion
This questioning of Electron will not change the shareholding composition. Pension funds and the BNDES continue to play a significant role. The big change after the migration was that they were no longer forced to act en bloc, diluting the influence of the government in the direction of the company. In addition to the improvements in the balance sheet and the industry scenario, this change was one of the determining factors for the significant expansion of Vale’s actions over the last months.”It made the roles unlock,” says Sabrina from Coinvalores. “The entry into the new market greatly reduced the risk of political interference, which was a great fear of the market.” In addition, the conversion of preferred shares into ordinary shares gave greater security to foreign investors, since in most countries there is only one class of action.
THE RISK Vale’s results are highly correlated with iron ore prices. When the value of the commodity rises, sales and profit of the miner also increase. Already when prices fall, the results are negatively impacted. The change in ore prices in the coming months, therefore, will be fundamental for the continuity of the good performance of the company. Among the analysts heard by MONEY, there is a disparity of opinion regarding the future prospects for the price of the commodity. While some believe that values should remain anchored at the current level of $ 65 per tonne – at least in the short term – others see a downside. “The current quotation is not sustainable,” says Sabrina, of Coinvalores.
The most relevant risk today for the maintenance of the positive scenario of the mining sector, and therefore of Vale, is the commercial war between the United States and China. The Asian country is now the main buyer of the Brazilian miner’s iron ore, accounting for 42% of sales (see box “The ore rush”). The tightening of disputes between the two nations, with the imposition of new tariffs, could impact China’s growth, steel production and, consequently, its demand for the commodity – indirectly affecting Vale’s results. The Asian giant is already beginning to feel some of the impacts of tariffs imposed by the US government.Country data for July showed a weakening of economic activity, which was credited by the Chinese government “to the obvious changes in the external environment,” according to a Dow Jones Newswires report. The prospects are also not encouraging. On July 1, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on an additional $ 200 billion in Chinese imports. With the intensification of the trade war, the main Asian stock markets opened the trading session on July 2 with sharp declines. In addition to the external scenario, Vale still faces uncertainty regarding the Mariana disaster. The damage repairs have not yet been completed and the Samarco mine is still closed (read more at the end of the story).
Another critical issue of the company, in the view of experts, is its lack of diversification. Unlike some of its main competitors, such as Australia’s BHP and Rio Tinto, the vast majority of Vale’s production (more than 80%) is concentrated in only one product, iron ore. “Many of Vale’s competitors have other product lines, such as oil, larger coal, aluminum and copper mines,” said John Tumazos, founder of the US-based analyst firm focused on commodities Very Independent Research. In practice, this leaves the company extremely exposed to just one market, increasing risks. “Diversification helps because at times one commodity is doing well and another is bad,” says Spinelli’s Legat.
From now on, Vale intends to continue investing in improving product quality, shareholder remuneration, and organic growth, for example, in the copper segment. The company does not, however, rule out acquisitions. “As opportunities appear, with high returns for the company, we will,” Schvartsman said. In relation to the points of uncertainty such as the commercial war, the executive’s confidence seems unshakable. “It would take a cataclysm to change Vale’s positive scenario.” It remains to be seen whether Schvartsman’s forecasts will actually materialize or whether Vale’s virtuous cycle will have a date to come to an end.________________________________________
The tragedy is still alive
The tracks of the mud: the Bento Rodrigues district in Mariana (MG), was devastated after the rupture of a Samarco dam. Vale controls 50% of the mining company
The marks of Brazil’s biggest socio-environmental tragedy, which killed 19 people and caused incalculable damage to the environment, are still present in the Mariana region of Minas Gerais. Since the dam of Samarco’s foundation, a joint venture between Brazil’s Vale and Australia’s BHP Billiton, broke off on November 5, 2015, progress on solving problems has slowed. Almost three years later, discussions about reparations for the damage done follow as a ghost on the parent companies. On June 25, after months of discussion, Vale and BHP entered into a new agreement with the Federal Public Ministry (MPF), in a renegotiation of the 42 programs foreseen in the Transaction Term and Adjustment of Conduct (TTAC), signed in March 2016 .
In practice, this document extinguishes the public civil action of R $ 20 billion filed by the Federal Government and the states against the mining companies and suspended, for two years, another lawsuit, filed by the MPF, in the amount of R $ 155 billion. There is, this time, a judicial guarantee fixed in the amount of R $ 2.2 billion, which, from the point of view of companies, brought greater legal certainty. On the other hand, it established changes in the repair program, giving greater participation of affected communities in the decisions of the Renova Foundation, an entity created by Vale and BHP to take care of repairs. The Renova Foundation has already disbursed R $ 4 billion in remedial actions and, by the end of this year, it is expected that another R $ 1.3 billion will be allocated to the program. Samarco is still closed and there is no provision for it to start operating again. According to Fabio Schvarstman, CEO of Vale,
ECONOMIA
Aug. 10, 2018
Istoe Dinheiro
Link:
https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/uma-nova-vale/
Uma nova Vale
Desde que Fabio Schvartsman assumiu a empresa, há pouco mais de um ano, as ações da mineradora deslancharam na bolsa e a companhia recuperou a confiança do mercado, com o grau de investimento das três maiores agências de rating. Entenda o que mudou e quais as perspectivas para o negócioSchvartsman, CEO da Vale: “Nosso propósito não é volume, estamos trabalhando claramente para a maximização dos preços” (Crédito: Leo Pinheiro/Valor)
Pedro Arbex
03/08/18 – 11h00 – Atualizado em 03/08/18 – 15h37
254
Em novembro de 2015, a Vale enfrentava uma “tempestade perfeita”. Os preços do minério de ferro, principal commodity produzida pela empresa, tinham despencado mais de 60% desde o início de 2014, e a mineradora acabava de se envolver em uma das maiores tragédias sócio-ambientais da história do Brasil. No dia 5 daquele mês, uma barragem da Samarco (joint venture controlada pela Vale e pela australiana BHP Billiton) rompeu, inundando de rejeitos minerais a região de Mariana (MG), causando a morte de 19 pessoas e sujando a imagem da maior produtora de minério de ferro do mundo. O cenário colocou a companhia, fundada em 1942 por Getúlio Vargas, em uma situação dramática: seu valor de mercado, por exemplo, caiu para R$ 61 bilhões – o mesmo patamar de 2002.
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Três anos depois, o quadro é o oposto. As nuvens negras se dissiparam e a Vale vive, hoje, em um verdadeiro céu de brigadeiro. O setor passa por um bom momento, as cotações do minério de ferro se recuperaram e a empresa apresenta resultados recordes de produção e vendas. Quase nada parece capaz de abalar os bons ventos que sopram na mineradora. Pelo menos, na percepção de seu presidente, o paulistano Fabio Schvartsman. “O único risco para a Vale é o de a economia global virar de cabeça para baixo”, disse ele, esbanjando confiança, em conferência de resultados do 2º trimestre, realizada em 26 de julho. “Salvo isso, acreditamos que a nossa operação vai continuar produzindo boas notícias.”
O otimismo do executivo de 64 anos não é à toa. Desde que ele assumiu a presidência, em maio do ano passado, a Vale acumula motivos de sobra para comemorar. As ações da mineradora se valorizaram quase 30% neste ano – mais de 75% nos últimos doze meses –, e a empresa recuperou a classificação de grau de investimento pelas três principais agências de rating de risco do mundo, a última delas, a Moody’s, há menos de duas semanas. Para completar o quadro, a companhia registrou, no primeiro semestre, um faturamento de R$ 59 bilhões, 18% superior ao do mesmo período do ano passado, e teve uma produção nunca vista antes. Foram mais de 178 milhões de toneladas de minério de ferro extraídas de suas minas, o maior valor da história da mineradora para um primeiro semestre. A previsão para o consolidado deste ano é produzir 390 milhões de toneladas (veja quadro ao lado).
Os acionistas também parecem ter boas razões para celebrar. No dia 25 de julho, a mineradora anunciou que vai recomprar US$ 1 bilhão em ações, algo que não acontecia desde 2011, e remunerar os detentores de seus papéis com US$ 2 bilhões em dividendos, a serem pagos em setembro. “A recompra é um sinal muito positivo. Mostra que a empresa está confiante com os seus resultados futuros, principalmente sua geração de caixa”, afirma Sabrina Cassiano, analista da Coinvalores. Para os acionistas, essa recompra contribui também porque reduz o número de papéis em circulação, aumentando o lucro por ação.
Murilo Ferreira foi CEO da Vale de 2011 até 2017. Boa parte do sucesso atual deve-se a ações tomadas por ele (Crédito:Stefano Martini / Ag. Istoe)
Desde o fim de 2015 até hoje, uma série de mudanças no cenário e na operação contribuiu para a virada da Vale. Além da recuperação do preço do minério de ferro, que passou de US$ 39 por tonelada para os atuais US$ 66, outro fator fundamental foi a entrada em funcionamento da mina S11D Eliezer Batista, maior projeto da história da Vale. Localizada no Pará, na região Norte do País, a operação é uma expansão do complexo de Carajás e começou a funcionar em dezembro de 2016. Até o momento, foram investidos cerca de US$ 6,4 bilhões no projeto. Quando estiver em pleno funcionamento, o que deve ocorrer em 2020, a previsão é a de que a mina adicione 90 milhões de toneladas à capacidade produtiva anual da Vale – ou cerca de 20% do total. No primeiro semestre, a S11D já foi responsável pela extração de mais de 26 milhões de toneladas.
A importância do projeto vai além do aumento no volume de produção. O grande benefício, na realidade, está na melhoria do mix de vendas, com a extração de um produto com uma qualidade muito superior, e a um custo baixo. Dos três sistemas de produção da Vale (Sudeste, Sul e Norte – que engloba Carajás e S11D), o Norte é onde a empresa têm o menor custo de produção, principalmente, por uma questão logística. Ali, foi construída uma grande infraestrutura ferroviária para o escoamento da produção no Terminal Marítimo de Ponta da Madeira, em São Luís (MA). Além disso, o minério extraído na região possui uma concentração de ferro muito acima da média. Enquanto o benchmark do setor, usado nas cotações da commodity, é de um teor de ferro de 62%, no minério da S11D esse valor é de 66,7%. “A entrada em operação da S11D ajudou em três aspectos: reduziu os investimentos; aumentou o volume, diluindo custos; e melhorou a qualidade do mix de produtos da Vale”, afirma Glauco Legat, analista-chefe da corretora Spinelli.
Com um minério com maior pureza, a empresa consegue um valor superior na venda, o chamado prêmio, além de garantir uma demanda mais constante e previsível pelo produto. No segundo trimestre deste ano, a diferença paga pelo minério de ferro com 65% de teor e o de 62%, foi em média, de US$ 20 por tonelada, segundo a empresa. Em outras palavras, enquanto o preço do minério normal girou em torno de US$ 65 por tonelada, o de melhor qualidade, produzido pela Vale ficou na ordem de US$ 85. Segundo Schvartsman, a estratégia garante que a empresa consiga manter um bom desempenho independentemente das condições de mercado, uma vez que existe hoje uma escassez dos minérios de alta qualidade e uma demanda grande por esse tipo de produto. “Os chineses, principalmente, estão mostrando grande interesse pelo minério brasileiro. Mesmo a Austrália ficando mais perto, eles preferem o produto do Brasil pela qualidade superior”, afirma Marcelo Ribeiro Tunes, diretor de assuntos minerários do Instituto Brasileiro de Mineração (Ibram).
Na Vale, os produtos premium, como os de Carajás e os blendados – que são uma mistura de minérios de diferentes tipos –, já representam 77% do total das vendas da empresa. E a intenção da mineradora é seguir investindo na diferenciação de seus produtos. “Nosso propósito não é volume, estamos trabalhando claramente para a maximização dos preços”, afirmou Schvartsman.A QUEDA DA DÍVIDA Para analistas ouvidos pela DINHEIRO, outro aspecto fundamental da estratégia recente da Vale, e que ajuda a entender a valorização expressiva de suas ações, é o seu foco na redução do endividamento, que estava em patamares extremamente altos ao final de 2015. A decisão de diminuir a alavancagem foi tomada já na gestão de Murilo Ferreira, que presidiu a mineradora no período de 2011 até maio do ano passado. Ainda na época de Ferreira, a Vale começou a se desfazer de diversos ativos, em um processo que garantiu mais de US$ 10 bilhões ao caixa da empresa. Alguns exemplos foram a venda de sua área de fertilizantes – adquirida pela Mosaic por US$ 2,5 bilhões no fim de 2016 –, e de alguns navios de carga.
Foi quando Schvartsman assumiu a presidência, no entanto, que o processo começou a ganhar tração. No fim do ano passado, o executivo estipulou a meta de reduzir a dívida líquida da companhia para US$ 10 bilhões, até 2019. Na época, o endividamento estava em US$ 21 bilhões. O objetivo deve ser concluído antes do prazo. No segundo trimestre, o montante já caiu para US$ 11,5 bilhões, o que representa uma alavancagem de 0,7 vez a sua geração de caixa, um patamar extremamente saudável, na visão de analistas. “A Vale vem de um processo extremamente forte de desalavancagem. Em menos de três anos, a dívida passou de quase R$ 30 bilhões para os atuais R$ 11,5 bilhões”, afirma Karel Luketic, analista-chefe da XP Investimentos.
O forte endividamento da empresa teve origem no chamado superciclo das commodities, que ocorreu entre 2003 e 2012. No período, houve uma expansão da economia global e um crescimento também do preço das commodities. O minério de ferro atingiu cotações recordes, ultrapassando os US$ 200 por tonelada. A Vale, e a indústria mineral de um modo geral, investiu cifras elevadas no aumento da produção e em novos negócios, gerando um crescimento expressivo do endividamento. Roger Agnelli (1959-2016), que comandou a mineradora de 2001 a 2011, comprou, por exemplo, a concorrente canadense Inco por US$ 13 bilhões e a Fosfertil, de fertilizantes, por outros US$ 3,6 bilhões.
Disputa acirrada: a australiana Rio Tinto é uma das principais concorrentes da Vale. As mineradoras da Austrália possuem uma vantagem pela proximidade com os países da Ásia
A entrada de Schvartsman na presidência deu início a uma nova fase da empresa, com uma visão de maior austeridade no negócio e um objetivo claro de arrumar a casa. O executivo ingressou na Vale após presidir por mais de seis anos a Klabin, uma das maiores produtoras de papel e celulose. “Ele fez uma administração de muito sucesso na Klabin e já entrou na Vale com um foco grande em eficiência operacional e na gestão financeira da empresa”, afirma Fabio Padovani, sócio da consultoria de gestão de negócios Signium.
O executivo ingressou na mineradora também com a missão de colocar em marcha uma grande reorganização societária, com a extinção da Valepar, holding que controlava a Vale desde sua privatização em 1997. Para isso, a empresa migrou para o Novo Mercado, segmento da B3 que exige um grau maior de governança corporativa, e que demanda um controle pulverizado da empresa. O passo foi dado no final do ano passado, quando a Vale converteu também todas as suas ações preferenciais em ordinárias (com direito a voto). A mudança foi muito bem vista por diminuir o risco de ingerência política na Vale, que mesmo após 20 anos de sua privatização sofria com pressões do governo federal – parte da desconfiança do mercado financeiro com o ex-CEO Murilo Ferreira vinha de sua indicação pela ex-presidente Dilma Rousseff.
A Valepar, que controlava a empresa até então, detinha cerca de 53% do capital. A holding era composta pelo BNDESPar, Bradespar, pela mineradora Mitsui e pelos principais fundos de pensão das estatais (Previ, Funcef, Petros e Funcesp, que estavam reunidos na Litel). Com a mudança societária, a Valepar deixou de existir e os fundos passaram a ter participação direta na Vale. Mas, ainda existe uma disputa judicial sobre o tema. A Elétron, fundo de investimento do empresário de Daniel Dantas, obteve uma decisão favorável sobre uma disputa de dez anos contra a Bradespar e a Litel. A Elétron alega não ter conseguido exercer uma opção de compra de 37.5 milhões de ações da Valepar e cobra suas antigas sócias pelos prejuízos. Em 25 de julho, uma juíza da 5a Vara Empresarial do Rio de Janeiro homologou um laudo pericial que fixa a indenização em R$ 4 bilhões. A Bradespar e a Litel contestam o laudo em razão de “uma série de incorreções”. A disputa segue no Tribunal de Justiça do Rio de Janeiro.
O maior projeto: a mina S11D, localizada no Pará, no Norte do País, entrou em operação em dezembro de 2016 e demandou investimentos que superaram os US$ 6,4 bilhões
Esse questionamento da Elétron não vai alterar a composição acionária. Os fundos de pensão e o BNDES continuam com participação relevante. A grande mudança, após a migração, é que eles não ficaram mais obrigados a atuar em bloco, diluindo a influência do governo nos rumos da empresa. Além das melhoras do balanço e do cenário do setor, essa mudança foi um dos fatores determinantes para a expansão expressiva das ações da Vale ao longo dos últimos meses. “Isso fez os papéis destravarem”, afirma Sabrina, da Coinvalores. “A entrada no novo mercado diminuiu muito o risco de interferência política, que era um grande receio do mercado.” Além disso, a conversão das ações preferenciais em ordinárias deu uma maior segurança para os investidores estrangeiros, uma vez que na maior parte dos países existe apenas uma classe de ação.
OS RISCOS Os resultados da Vale são extremamente correlacionados com os preços do minério de ferro. Quando o valor da commodity sobe, as vendas e o lucro da mineradora também aumentam. Já quando há uma queda nos preços, os resultados são impactados negativamente. A variação das cotações do minério nos próximos meses, portanto, serão fundamentais para a continuidade do bom desempenho da companhia. Entre os analistas ouvidos pela DINHEIRO, há uma disparidade de opiniões a respeito das perspectivas futuras para o preço da commodity. Enquanto alguns acreditam que os valores devem se manter ancorados no patamar atual, de US$ 65 por tonelada – pelo menos no curto prazo –, outros enxergam uma perspectiva de queda. “A cotação atual não é sustentável”, afirma Sabrina, da Coinvalores. “Nossa expectativa é que os preços do minério de ferro recuem um pouco até o fim do ano.”
O risco mais relevante hoje para a manutenção do cenário positivo do setor de mineração e, portanto, da Vale, é a guerra comercial entre os Estados Unidos e a China. O país asiático é hoje o principal comprador do minério de ferro da mineradora brasileira, respondendo por 42% das vendas (veja quadro “A corrida do minério”). O acirramento das disputas entre as duas nações, com a imposição de novas tarifas, poderia impactar o crescimento da China, sua produção de aço e, conseqüentemente, a sua demanda pela commodity – afetando indiretamente os resultados da Vale. O gigante asiático já começa a sentir alguns impactos das tarifas impostas pelo governo americano.Dados do país referentes a julho mostraram um enfraquecimento da atividade econômica, que foi creditada pelo governo chinês “à mudanças óbvias no ambiente externo”, segundo reportagem do Dow Jones Newswires. As perspectivas também não são animadoras. No dia 1o de julho, o presidente do EUA, Donald Trump, ameaçou impor uma tarifa de 25% sobre mais US$ 200 bilhões em importações chinesas. Com a intensificação da guerra comercial, as principais bolsas asiáticas abriram o pregão do dia 2 de julho com quedas acentuadas. Além do cenário externo, a Vale enfrenta ainda uma incerteza em relação ao desastre de Mariana. As reparações dos danos ainda não foram concluídas e a mina de Samarco segue fechada (leia mais ao final da reportagem).
Outra questão crítica da empresa, na visão de especialistas, é a sua falta de diversificação. Diferente de alguns de seus principais concorrentes, como as australianas BHP e Rio Tinto, a grande maioria da produção da Vale (mais de 80%) é concentrada em apenas um produto, o minério de ferro. “Muitos dos concorrentes da Vale têm outras linhas de produtos, como petróleo, maiores minas de carvão, alumínio e cobre”, afirma John Tumazos, fundador da casa de análise americana focada em commodities Very Independent Research. Na prática, isso deixa a empresa extremamente exposta a apenas um mercado, aumentando os riscos. “A diversificação ajuda, porque em alguns momentos uma commodity está indo bem e outra mal”, diz Legat, da Spinelli.
Daqui para frente, a Vale pretende seguir investindo na melhoria da qualidade do produto, na remuneração dos acionistas, e em um crescimento orgânico, por exemplo, no segmento de cobre. A empresa não descarta, entretanto, aquisições. “Na medida que apareçam oportunidades, com alto retorno para a companhia, nós faremos”, disse Schvartsman. Em relação aos pontos de incerteza como a guerra comercial, a confiança do executivo parece inabalável. “Seria preciso de um cataclisma para mudar o cenário positivo da Vale.” Resta saber, se as previsões de Schvartsman vão de fato se concretizar ou se o ciclo virtuoso da Vale terá uma data para chegar ao fim.________________________________________
A tragédia ainda está viva
Os rastros da lama: o distrito de Bento Rodrigues, em Mariana (MG), foi devastado após o rompimento de uma barragem da Samarco. A Vale controla 50% da mineradora
As marcas da maior tragédia sócio-ambiental do Brasil, que matou 19 pessoas e causou um prejuízo incalculável ao meio-ambiente, ainda estão presentes na região mineira de Mariana. Desde que a barragem do fundão da Samarco, uma joint venture entre a brasileira Vale e a australiana BHP Billiton, se rompeu, em 5 de novembro de 2015, os avanços para a resolução dos problemas corre devagar. Quase três anos depois, as discussões sobre as reparações dos danos causados seguem como um fantasma sobre as empresas controladoras. Em 25 de junho, após meses de discussão, Vale e BHP firmaram um novo acordo com o Ministério Público Federal (MPF), em uma repactuação dos 42 programas previstos no Termo de Transação e Ajustamento de Conduta (TTAC), assinado em março de 2016.
Na prática, esse documento extingue a ação civil pública de R$ 20 bilhões movida pela União e Estados contra as mineradoras e suspendeu, por dois anos, a outra ação judicial, movida pelo MPF, no valor de R$ 155 bilhões. Há, desta vez, uma garantia judicial fixada no valor de R$ 2,2 bilhões, o que, do ponto de vista das empresas, trouxe maior segurança jurídica. Em contrapartida, estabeleceu mudanças no programa de reparação, dando maior participação das comunidades atingidas nas decisões da Fundação Renova, entidade criada por Vale e BHP para cuidar das reparações. A Fundação Renova já desembolsou R$ 4 bilhões em ações de reparação e, até o fim deste ano, a previsão é que mais R$ 1,3 bilhão seja destinado ao programa. A Samarco continua fechada e não há previsão para que volte a operar. De acordo com Fabio Schvarstman, CEO da Vale, há um plano de negócio sendo montado para avaliar de forma concreta quando a Samarco poderá retomar a sua produção.
SDI mulling meltshop for Heartland: Millett
July 25, 2018
American Metal Market
By: Michael CowdenOn the call, Very Independent Research owner and chief executive John Tumazos questioned whether that might make SDI the eighth largest steel buyer in the United States. “I don’t know where it puts us. But it’s a significant player on the procurement side,” Millett replied.
On the call, Very Independent Research owner and chief executive John Tumazos questioned whether that might make SDI the eighth largest steel buyer in the United States. “I don’t know where it puts us. But it’s a significant player on the procurement side,” Millett replied.Tumazos also asked whether Heartland might provide a baseload of business for a new mill – such as a potential Big River Steel mill in Brownsville, Texas, or a Nucor flat-rolled mill on the West Coast. “We will still continue to maintain those good relationships that we’ve had,” Millett said. He did not say which third-party steelmakers SDI currently sources from.
Telson Mining Corporation
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Conference
from June 27, 2018 to June 28, 2018
20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, NJ 07733
Mining, Metals, and Forest Products Investment Research
Website:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir17/tsn.v/?lobby=true&day=1 http://beta.wsw.com/admin/log2/?conf=vir17&page=tsn.v&key=ghahljxjil&
General Moly
June 25, 2018
Announces Results of Annual Meeting and Presents at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference
The Company will be participating at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference in Holmdel, New Jersey on June 27 and 28, 2018.
In his presentation at 5:20 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday June 27, 2018, General Moly CEO Bruce D. Hansen will discuss the Company’s zinc, copper and silver exploration drilling plans at the Mt. Hope Project in Nevada, and the positive long-term supply and demand fundamentals for molybdenum. (Please refer to the Company’s June 21, 2018 news release regarding the drilling plans.)
The presentation will be webcast live with a link available on the Company’s website where a PDF of the presentation will also be posted. The link will also provide an archived playback shortly after the presentation.
http://www.generalmoly.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018-06-27-GMO-JTumazos-VIR-Conference-final.pdf
Continental Gold to Present at John Tumazos Conference
Paul Begin, Chief Financial Officer, will be attending and presenting at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference in New Jersey at 3:35pm EDT on Wednesday, June 27, 2018. This conference will be webcast and may be accessed at
http://bit.ly/2MnhqDh
TriMetals Mining Presets at Investment Conference
June 26, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia—TriMetals Mining Inc. (TSX: TMI, OTCQX: TMIAF) (the “Company” or “TMI”) will be participating at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference in Holmdel, New Jersey.
Eric Edwards, President and Chief Executive Officer of TMI will be available to meet with investors at the conference on June 27 and 28, 2018. In his presentation at 4:10 p.m. ET on Thursday June 28, 2018, he will provide a Company update, including discussing the gold and silver district potential and exploration upside in the massive collapsed caldera environment at the Company’s flagship Gold Springs Project, which straddles Nevada and Utah.
The presentation will be webcast live with a link available on the Company’s website where a PDF of the presentation will also be posted. The link will also provide an archived playback.
PARAMOUNT GOLD NEVADA CORP. TO PRESENT AT JTVIR CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK
Winnemucca, Nevada – June 22, 2018 – Paramount Gold Nevada Corp. (NYSE American: PZG) (“Paramount”) will be presenting at the JTVIR Conference in Holmdel, New Jersey on Wednesday, June 27, 2018 at approximately 3:10 PM Eastern Time.
In addition to the PDF of the presentation, which will be available on the Company’s website www.paramountnevada.com, the presentation will be live webcast (audio only) at www.wsw.com/webcast/vir17. The JTVIR Conference is an invitation only investment conference.
Amarillo Gold Corporation to at Present at the John Tumazos Conference in New Jersey,
June 28th, 2018
The John Tumazos Metals Conference will be held June 27-28th and will take place at the Greek Orthodox Church, 20 Hillcrest Road, Holmdel, New Jersey. President and CEO Mike Mutchler will be presenting on June 28th at 3:40pm in the Large Hall. A webcast of Mike Mutchler’s presentation can be viewed here: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir17
For more information about John Tumazos and his Conference, please go to: http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/
Commerce Dept. drowning in 9,500 tariff exemption bids
June 4, 2018
By Len Boselovic
Link: http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2018/06/04/Commerce-Dept-drowning-in-9-500-tariff-exemption-bids/stories/201806030021Instead, the Commerce Department faces a daunting task that metals industry analysts, importers and trade lawyers fear the agency isn’t equipped to handle — particularly within the 90-day timetable the department has set.“I can’t see how any government agency in the best of times would be competent to make these evaluations,” said John Tumazos, an independent metals industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. “It just reminds me of communist central planners trying to run the economy.”
New Age Metals Inc.
John Tumazos
June 27-28, 2018
Greek Orthodox Church, 20 Hillcrest Road
Holmdel, NJ
GOWEST GOLD
NEWS & EVENTS
News
Events & MediaEvents & MediaEvents
June 27-28, 2018GOWEST GOLD is pleased to announce that, at the invitation of John Tumazos, Very Independent Research, LLC, the Company will be one of the speakers presenting at the Metals Conference on the Jersey Shore. Greg Romain, GOWEST’s President and CEO, is scheduled to speak on June 28th at 11:00 a.m.“JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH, LLC (JTVIR LLC) is registered as an investment advisor in the State of NJ. We have 30-odd institutional clients in the U.S. and Canada. We do fundamental research on commodities markets and common stocks in the metals, fertilizer and forest products sectors. For example, we typically publish 20 investment reports per month and travel for research each month often travelling abroad. We formed our company in 2007 when the former Prudential Equities Group shut down. We are regulated like a money manager, but our business is to advise active money managers and we also manage a few accounts. We are not a broker-dealer, but deliver the same basic research services that we had since 1981 as an employee at major brokerage firms.”
Constantine Metals Resources Ltd.
John Tumazos Very Independent Research ConferenceDate:
June 27-28, 2018Location:
Greek Orthodox Church, Holmdel, New JerseyPresentation:
11:30-12:00 on June 27Event Link: https://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/
Ascendant Resources Inc.
Jun 27 2018
John Tumazos 2018 Metals Conference
McEwen Mining
John Tumazos Metals Conference
From June 27, 2018 to June 28, 2018
John Tumazos Metals Conference at the Jersey Shore
Greek Orthodox Church, 20 Hillcrest Rd, Holmdel, NJ 07733
McEwen Mining Speaker: TBA
Royal Gold
June 27, 2018
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference 2018
10:50 AM ET
Speaker(s): Karli Anderson, Vice President Investor Relations
View the live Webcast
NOVAGOLD
June 27 – 28, 2018
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
Presenter: Greg Lang
Location: New Jersey, NYWebcast link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir17
Alamos Gold Inc.
JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH METALS & NATURAL RESOURCES CONFERENCE
from June 27, 2018 to June 28, 2018
Sierra Metals
JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH METALS & NATURAL RESOURCES CONFERENCE – New Jersey
from June 27, 2018 to June 28, 2018 04:45 PM EST
Kimisis Tis Theotokou, Greek Orthodox Church, Holmdel, NJ
A deal that would have provided major funding boost for Pebble has been terminated
May 26, 2018
Anchorage Daily News
By: Alex DeMarban
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2018/05/25/major-mining-company-backs-out-of-pebble-mine-agreement/
John Tumazos, a mining securities analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey, said mining agreements are complex. The deal may have fallen apart simply because the companies couldn’t agree on just one of numerous details.
Pebble is by no means dead, he said.
First Quantum invested $37.5 million in the project last year, as it considered a larger investment, he said. That about a year’s worth of funding for the project, he said.
Tumazos said other mining companies have expressed an interest in Pebble. He suspects at least one of those will step in as a partner.
First Quantum shares fell 4 percent Friday, to under $20 apiece, a sizable drop.
“Its shareholders clearly were disappointed it lost 50 percent of Pebble potentially, and thought Pebble would be a good asset for the long-term,” Tumazos said in an email
Romios Gold Resources Inc.
April 3, 2018
News Release
ROMIOS SIGNS LETTER AGREEEMENT WITH McEWEN MINING TO SELL TIMMINSHISLOP PROPERTYJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC was instrumental in introducing the parties.
Alamos Gold Inc.
Investors>Events and webcasts>Event DetailsJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference
from June 27, 2018 to June 28, 2018New Jersey, USA
Pittsburgh-area companies already lining up for relief from Trump tariffs
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Mar. 6, 2018
By LenBoselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2018/03/06/Companies-already-lining-up-for-relief-from-Trump-tariffs/stories/201803060019“It adds to the frustration of working people. It’s a legitimate issue,” said John Tumazos, a metals and mining analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.Mr. Tumazos said at least five U.S. steel mills import more than 7 million tons annually of slabs or other unfinished steel and convert the steel into products used by auto makers and other industries.He said U.S. companies that import steel wire rod to make screws, nails, coat hangers and other products may also ask to be excused from the penalties. Steel already represents about two-thirds of their production costs and their customers will balk at paying 25 percent more, Mr. Tumazos said.“There are many, many categories of exemptions that are going to get requested,” the analyst said. “There’s going to be legitimate and illegitimate complaints.”
“Biggest Undeveloped Copper Deposit”
Feb. 7, 2018
Bloomberg Environment
By: Stephen Lee
https://bnanews.bna.com/environment-and-energy/new-york-wants-to-divest-from-planned-pebble-copper-mine-project
The divestment calls won’t stop the project, because of more powerful economic currents, John Tumazos, an independent analyst in Holmdel, N.J., who monitors the Pebble project, told Bloomberg Environment.“This is the biggest undeveloped copper deposit in the world,” he said. “If the world needs the copper, the price of copper might rise until this is economic.”The New York and California calls for divestment, however, could exert enough political pressure on the company to change its mine plan to one that doesn’t use an open pit and thus creates less pollution, Tumazos said.
California treasurer urges Pebble mine funding partner to drop the project
Sunday Feb. 4, 2018
Anchorage Daily News
By: Alex DeMarban
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2018/01/30/california-treasurer-urges-pebble-funding-partner-to-drop-the-project/
John Tumazos, a mining securities analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey, said he doesn’t think either of the recent announcements will have much long-term impact on the project.The price of copper and project economics are more important, he said. Also, Pruitt said Friday the project can still advance through the permitting process with the Corps.Under that process, “Pebble is dealing with rational engineers at the Corps who will consider all permutations,” Tumazos said.
Coal, steel, manufacturing struggle after Trump’s first year
Feb. 3, 2018
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By: Bob Bauder, Brian Bowling and Natasha Lindstrom
http://www.post-gazette.com/powersource/latest-oil-and-gas/2018/02/03/Coal-steel-manufacturing-struggle-after-Trump-s-first-year/stories/201802030005“I think the state of steel is improving a lot in the United States because the economy is growing and imports have fallen, but the steel industry is contracting in Pennsylvania,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC. in Holmdel, N.J., an industry consultant.He noted that Nucor Corp. recently announced plans to build a $250 million micro-mill with 250 jobs in Sedalia, Mo.; Commercial Metals Co. recently built new mills in Arizona and Oklahoma; and Big River Steel built a mill in Arkansas.
“The only significant investment in the last decade in Pennsylvania has been the Allegheny (Technologies) rolling mill (in Harrison), which was a replacement of a 1952 rolling mill,” Tumazos said.He said the most significant things to happen in Pennsylvania over the past year were an increase in steel prices and the reopening of an Allegheny Technologies plant in Midland.
“Allegheny Technologies cut a deal with a Chinese company to import slabs from Indonesia to restart the Midland cold rolling mill for 100 jobs,” he said. “That’s the biggest excitement that I can think of in Pennsylvania, imported slabs to start a mill for 100 jobs.”
After Trump’s first year, coal, steel, manufacturing still struggling in Pennsylvania
Jan. 27, 2018
TribeLive
By: Bob Bauder, Brian Bowling and Natasha Lindstrom
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/13220461-74/after-trumps-first-year-coal-steel-manufacturing-still-struggling-in-Pennsylvania
“I think the state of steel is improving a lot in the United States because the economy is growing and imports have fallen, but the steel industry is contracting in Pennsylvania,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC. in Holmdel, N.J., an industry consultant.He noted that Nucor Corp. recently announced plans to build a $250 million micro-mill with 250 jobs in Sedalia, Mo.; Commercial Metals Co. recently built new mills in Arizona and Oklahoma; and Big River Steel built a mill in Arkansas.“The only significant investment in the last decade in Pennsylvania has been the Allegheny (Technologies) rolling mill (in Harrison), which was a replacement of a 1952 rolling mill,” Tumazos said.He said the most significant things to happen in Pennsylvania over the past year were an increase in steel prices and the reopening of an Allegheny Technologies plant in Midland.“Allegheny Technologies cut a deal with a Chinese company to import slabs from Indonesia to restart the Midland cold rolling mill for 100 jobs,” he said. “That’s the biggest excitement that I can think of in Pennsylvania, imported slabs to start a mill for 100 jobs.”
Samarco, Vale S.A. – BHP Billiton Considering Sale of Samarco Stake To Vale For $1B (Emerging Markets LatAm Intelligence)
Jan. 16, 2018
By: Reorg Emerging Markets LatAm
Samarco Vale S.A.BHP Billiton Considering Sale of Samarco Stake To Vale For $1BNegotiations between mining companies and Samarco joint venture partners BHP Billiton and Vale, regarding the sale of BHP’s 50% stake in the JV, have advanced.
BHP’s asking price for its interest in Samarco is around $1 billion, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg and Valor Econômico.
BHP, however, would still take responsibility to debts related to Samarco disaster. Back in 2015 the Fundão tailings dam in the town of Mariana collapsed, killing 19 people and flooding communities with mining waste. The Australia-based mining company is also allegedly requesting royalties for the mine life as part of negotiations, according to Bloomberg.
On Dec. 21, Vale said it will provide up to $48 million of short-term facilities available to Samarco in the first half of 2018. Roughly $42 million would be used to support Samarco’s operations, while $6 million would be used to pay experts named pursuant to the preliminary agreement with public prosecutors signed in January 2017.
The funds will be released on an as-needed basis. BHP Billiton Brasil Ltda.also made short-term facilities available to Samarco with similar terms and conditions
Vale, Samarco and BHP have all refused to comment on the matter.
Market specialists heard by Reorg have different views on the matter. “Until the various damages claims litigations are settled, the criminal case over and the license to mine restored, why should either partner pay cash to buy the other out?”, said Vale analyst John C. Tumazos, from John Tumazos Very Independent Research. On the other hand, sources have highlighted Vale’s knowledge of the Brazilian market.
Some sources believe that the absence of Samarco’s production — the company exported 25.4 million tonnes in 2015 — could be one of the drivers helping iron ore prices.See on Reorg Research
Pebble gets a new funding partner, bringing mine closer to reality
Monday Dec. 18, 2017
Anchorage Daily News
By Alex DeMarban
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2017/12/18/pebble-project-gets-a-new-funding-partner/ Canadian company First Quantum is one of the world’s top 10 copper mining companies and has projects around the world, said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey.First Quantum could help finance the Pebble project using annual revenue at its other mining operations, Tumazos said. Its presence could attract additional investors.
Tumazos said First Quantum is a “very skilled” company with strong engineering expertise.He said Anglo American in 2013 left Pebble after it had spent hundreds of millions of dollars because of financial reasons and Pebble’s long-term development horizon.“This strengthens the probability of completion a great deal now that First Quantum is involved,” Tumazos said.
US stainles distributors reject daily surcharge
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
American Metal Market
By Grace LavigneA daily alloy surcharge might already be used in the US for relatively large orders, John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research, told American Metal market. “The distributors that nickel and dime the US mills, or play them off of imports, maybe are not treated as affectionately.”
No big changes expected for former Cargill unit
Sept. 19, 2017
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
On the flip side, the deal will likely allow Cargill to return to its core competencies, and help reduce its debt, according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“It’s possible that as a steel buyer, (Cargill) was uncomfortable with trade protection trends and exited this business to concentrate on free-market businesses like agriculture, which is their origin,” Tumazos told AMM. “They also may perceive steel prices as elevated … so this is a way for them to sell their working capital while prices are higher.”
August 3-4, 2017 Margaux ResourcesJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference 2017Large Hall
Presentation by CEO Tyler Rice at 2.40pm on Friday August 4, 2017http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/register.aspx?conf=vir16&page=index&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwsw.com%2Fwebcast%2Fvir16%2F%23table2#utm_source=CMG
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 4, 2017
Texas Mineral Resources Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/#table2
Presentation:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/tmrc/?lobby=true&day=2
August 3-4, 2017
August 3, 2017 9 AM EST
2017 John Tumazos Metals Conference Holmdel, New Jersey
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/xpl/?lobby=true
Rubiconminerals
Event Details2017 John Tumazos Metals Conferencefrom August 3, 2017 to August 4, 2017
09:00 AM EST
Holmdel, New Jersey
President and CEO George Ogilvie, P.Eng. will be providing a corporate updatePresentation date and time: August 4, 2017 at 11:30 am ET
Click here for presentation webcast linkhttp://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/Click here for the presentation slides
http://s21.q4cdn.com/960886365/files/doc_presentations/2017/20170804-Rubicon-Minerals-Corporation-Presentation.pdf
August 3-4, 2017
August 4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference, Holmdel, NJ
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 4, 2017
Treasury Metals Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Aug 3, 2017 – Aug 4, 2017 Holmdel, New Jersey
https://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 4, 2017
Galway Metals Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 4, 2017
Rye Patch Gold Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-7, 2017
Register for the
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference 2017
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
Presenting at: 8/4/2017 9:30 AM (ET)
Link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir16/register.aspx?conf=vir16&page=wdo&url=http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir16/wdo/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=2
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Comstock Mining Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Comstock Mining Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Northern Empire Resources Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Royal Nickel Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
General Moly at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
Thursday, August 3, 2017 3:40 p.m. ET
Webcast Presentation
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/gmo/?lobby=true&day=1
Title: Title General Moly at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
Date and Time: Thursday, August 3, 2017 3:40 p.m. ET
Location: Holmdel, New Jersey
Supporting Materials:
file:///C:/Users/Alicia/Downloads/2017-08-03%20General%20Moly-Tumazos%20Conference.pdf
August 3-4, 2017
August 3, 2017
Sierra Metals Inc.
Kimisis Tis Theotokou, Greek Orthodox Church, Holmdel, NJ
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference – New Jersey
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Constantine Metal Resources Ltd at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Vendetta Mining Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
John Tumazos Conference
Aug 4, 2017
Western Copper and Gold will once again be attending the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference. This year the conference will be held on August 3-4, 2017 in Holmdel, New Jersey.
President & CEO Paul West-Sells will be presenting on August 3 at 1:10 PM in the Small Hall. A webcast of Dr. West-Sells’ presentation can be viewed here:
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/
Venue:
Kimisis Tis Theotokou Greek
20 Hillcrest Road
Holmdel, NJ United States
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Quaterra Resources Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Polymet Mining Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Paramount Gold Nevada Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Banyan Gold Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Otis Gold Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Rupert Resources Ltd at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Alexandria Minerals Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Amarc Resources Ltd at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals ConferenceAug 3, 2017 – Aug 4, 2017
20 Hillcrest Road
Holmdel, NJ
Presenter: CEO, Matthew Hornor
August 3rd, 4:40 PMEvent Link:
https://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Guyana Goldfields Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals ConferenceAugust 3, 2017
Time: 03:10 PM EST
Speaker(s): Navin Dyal, CFO
Presentation Room: Large HallView Presentation: http://s1.q4cdn.com/851853033/files/doc_presentations/2017/08/2017-JTVIR-presentation-Final.pdfView Webcast: http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/register.aspx?conf=vir16&page=index&url=http%3A//wsw.com/webcast/vir16/
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017 – Aug 4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research – Metals and Natural Resources Conference – New JerseyHolmdel, New Jersey
Greek Orthodox ChurchVictoria Gold is a featured presenting company at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference, Metals and Natural Resources Conference at the Greek Orthodox Church in Holmdel, New Jersey on August 3-4, 2017.John McConnell, Director, President and CEO will provide an update on Victoria Gold and the Eagle Gold Project on Wednesday, August 3 at 3:10pm local time, and will be available to meet one on one with investors registered for the conference. A webcast of the Corporate Presentation will be available to view here http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/Click here for more information.https://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/Event Info.
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Torex Gold Resources Inc at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Detour Gold
Aug 3, 2017
Detour Gold Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4,2017
Detour Gold
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference – New Jersey
from August 3, 2017 to August 4, 2017
Kimisis Tis Theotokou, Greek Orthodox Church Holmdel, NJ
Webcast
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/
Presentation (opens in new window)
http://s22.q4cdn.com/327131108/files/doc_presentations/DGC_17_08_3-4_Tumazos-Presentation.pd
August 3-4, 2017
Agnico Eagle
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals ConferenceAugust 3, 2017 11:30 AM EST
Greek Church Hall 20 Hillcrest Road Holmdel, NJ 07733
Speaker(s):
David Wong, Manager, Investor Relations
Webcast: http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Sandstorm Gold Ltd at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
Aug 3, 2017
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3-4, 2017
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference
August 3, 2017
Time: 11:00 A.M. ET
Speaker (s): Karli Anderson, Vice President Investor Relations
http://s1.q4cdn.com/019733279/files/doc_presentations/2017/08/Tumazos-Conference-Aug-2017.pdf
August 3-4, 2017
MAG SILVER CORP
Event Title: John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
Event Location: Jersey Shore, USA
August 3-4, 2017
JTVIR Metals & Mining Conference
Watch NOVAGOLD’s corporate presentation from the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference in New Jersey
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/register.aspx?conf=vir16&page=ng&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/vir16/ng/index.aspx?lobby=true&day=1
Prison And Missile Stocks Soar, Guns Slump Under Trump Administration
July 19, 2017
By Alex Kotch
http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/prison-missile-stocks-soar-guns-slump-under-trump-administration-2567974The price of steel has nearly doubled since late 2015, metals analyst John Tumazos told IBT. Combined with expectations of lower corporate taxes, infrastructure spending, trade protection, deregulation and a “buy American” mentality from the Trump administration have all helped the materials industry thrive. Steel production is set to exceed demand, however, and while the industry is probably doing better than it would without a Trump presidency, there are important industry factors that cause fluctuations that the government has little to do with.“It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario of a two-digit steel market growth in the US,” said Tumazos.
What should a president who represents Pittsburgh stand for?
June 4, 2017
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2017/06/04/president-trump-Pittsburgh-paris-climate/stories/201706040146“When Trump said in Cleveland last July that he wanted to put steelworkers and coal miners back to work, I cried I was so happy,” said John Tumazos, a Wilkinsburg High and Carnegie Mellon graduate.Mr. Tumazos is a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst. Facts about the pain China has inflicted on Pittsburgh and U.S. manufacturers roll easily off his tongue. China accounts for 49 percent of global steel capacity, 56 percent of global aluminum smelting capacity, and 55 percent of stainless steel capacity, he said. The Paris climate change accord would have only made matters worse, Mr. Tumazos said.“There is some uncertainty about the science. I think Obama is treasonous and cut a horrible deal,” he said. “We should not shut down our factories so that India and China can continue to grow.”Mr. Tumazos took exception to Pittsburgh’s Bill Peduto joining about 175 other mayors in pledging to support the climate agreement.“I wish there was an impeachment procedure for this fellow Peduto who some jerks in Pittsburgh elected mayor,” he said.
Arconic, Elliott Management end bitter proxy fight
May 22, 2017
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/05/22/Arconic-hedge-fund-strike-peace-deal-Elliott-Alcoa-pittsburgh/stories/201705220108Wall Street’s subdued response to the agreement comes after Arconic shares ran up 21 percent after Elliott launched the proxy contest in late January. John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst, said the increase was spurred by the prospect of Elliott working some magic. He said that will be difficult given the disparate nature of Arconic’s businesses, which include making parts for jet engines, wheels, fasteners and titanium.“It’s hard to tell what specialty the new CEO should come from,” Mr. Tumazos said.He said Arconic will benefit from putting the dispute behind it.
USS needs more than new CEO: analysts
May 11, 2017
American Metal Market
By Michael Cowden“It’s not fun when you lose $180 million. … It’s even less fun to lose $180 million when everyone else is swimming in cash,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.U.S. Steel blamed the loss on production problems at its North American flat-rolled mills. Those problems appear to be centered around the company’s rolling operations, although it’s hard to say that with certainty because investors have been kept largely in the dark, Tumazos said.“We understood what the problems were. It was clear that U.S. Steel understood what they were. And it was clear when they fixed them,” Tumazos said. “These issues that they’ve had last year and into this year have not been clearly described.”That’s disconcerting, because the rolling problems don’t stem from the bad weather—which hurt integrated mills across the Great Lakes in 2014—but might instead result from a changing product mix to which U.S. Steel may be struggling to adapt, Tumazos said.“That (skelp) is gone. And now they’ve got stuff that’s not as hard to roll as titanium, but in that direction,” Tumazos said.Many AHSS grades had not been invented as recently as 10 years ago, and retrofitting old equipment to make those grades won’t be easy, Tumazos added. “The auto market for steel is changing faster now than at any time since Henry Ford invented the automobile,” he said.U.S. Steel has said it will complete upgrades to its flat-rolled operations by 2020. In the meantime, its competitors will be making gains in both steel and aluminum, Tumazos warned.
U. S. Steel’s Longhi retires as CEO after rough quarter
May 10, 2017
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/05/10/US-Steel-CEO-retires-Longhi-out-after-rough-quarter/stories/201705100217“It is a surprise that the board didn’t pick a rolling mill metallurgist or an operations guy or technologist familiar with the specific technical challenges that the last few months of results seem to reflect,” said John Tumazos, an analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.
U. S. Steel shares slide on loss, investment plan
April 26, 2017
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/04/26/U-S-Steel-shares-loss-investment-plan-pittsburgh/stories/201704260154?pgpageversion=pgevoke“They should have raised their guidance because prices and volumes in the market look better than they did 90 days ago,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J.-based analyst.U.S. Steel blamed the performance in part on operational issues at its mills. Mr. Tumazos believes those issues could be more serious than investors realized.
Coming home: Alcoa to move headquarters from New York to Pittsburgh
April 19, 2017
TribLive
By: Aaron Aupperlee
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/12211633-74/coming-home-alcoa-to-move-headquarters-from-new-york-to-pittsburgh
Alcoa moving its headquarters back home to Pittsburgh
April19, 2017
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By: Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/04/19/Alcoa-coming-home-Pittsburgh-aluminum-headquarters/stories/201704190181
Taiwanese steelmaker considering US mill
April 18, 2017
American Metal Market
By: Grace LavigneThe reported investment of $1.65 billion could be enough to build a stainless steel facility with melting and hot-rolling capabilities, and would be more than adequate for a stainless operation with just cold-rolling or finishing capabilities, according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“Even at $4 per pound, nickel is high value so stainless slabs carry the freight much better than carbon slabs,” Tumazos toldAMM.In terms of the current political environment, “building a new mill creates jobs,” he said. “The bigger question is whether the U.S. needs another stainless mill. There appears to be no business rationale to add another stainless mill in the U.S.”
Analysts see some challenges still facing the market
Mar. 9, 2017
AMM@AMM1882 Twitter
AMM‏ @AMM1882 2h2 hours ago
Commercial aerospace volumes and prices are “unstable” raising short-term questions. https://goo.gl/Iocucr @Deloitte @JohnTumazosTrump to drive US steel prices in 2017: poll
Feb. 20, 2017
American Metal Market
By Millicent Dent“The people who are concerned about Mr. Trump might be following the Twitter flow or reading CNN too much,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said.Fluctuations in the prices of iron ore, metallurgical coal and scrap will be the largest drivers of steel prices, according to Tumazos. “I expect the raw materials that pass through the model of steel pricing to prevail. Steel prices are numbers.”
Northern Dynasty’s Pebble Project Has Been Assessed by Independent Experts as a Globally Important Copper/Gold Asset with Multiple Development Options for Commercial Success
Feb. 17, 20174
http://www.northerndynastyminerals.com/ndm/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=778879From Very Independent Research:
The short seller report was neither a mining technical report nor very much new.
– John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC. February 15, 2017
Elliott Dials Back Arconic Share Target a Week Into Board Fight
Feb. 7, 2017
The Wall Street Journal
By: David Benoit and Bob Tita
https://www.wsj.com/articles/elliott-dials-back-arconic-share-target-a-week-into-board-fight-1486506936
John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst for Very Independent Research LLC, said Elliott’s cost forecasts oversimplify Arconic’s diverse set of business lines, expenses and end markets.“The cost structure is not going to be addressed by one action in one fell swoop because they’re in all these different business,” he said. “It isn’t like there’s a cookbook for best practices.”Trump Reviving Fortunes for Mine Explorer With Zero Revenue
Jan. 19, 2017
Bloomberg
By: Natalie Obiko Pearson
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/trump-makes-canadian-mine-explorer-with-zero-revenue-great-again“On Friday, Trump gets inaugurated — that’s a good thing,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, New Jersey-based independent mining analyst, who owns Northern Dynasty shares and believes the EPA under Trump will reverse a 2014 move to prevent Pebble from obtaining a permit. Nomination hearings began Wednesday for Trump’s pick to head the agency, Scott Pruitt, a climate-change skeptic who has called for “regulatory rollback.” That can’t happen soon enough for Northern Dynasty.“This is like 100 junior gold miners rolled into one,” said Tumazos, who retains about 120,000 Northern Dynasty shares after selling a small holding recently to recoup his initial outlay. “I think it’s the most significant mining project in the world.”
Aerospace, defense marts set for takeoff: Deloitte
Jan. 13, 2017
American Metal Market
By: Grace LavigneIndeed, commercial aerospace volumes and product prices are “unstable,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.In addition, Tumazos said, Airbus’ A380 wide-body airliner is not profitable, and both Boeing and Airbus are trying to push down input prices to remedy their cost issues. In addition, Tumazos said, Airbus’ A380 wide-body airliner is not profitable, and both Boeing and Airbus are trying to push down input prices to remedy their cost issues.However, for the metals-intensive aerospace supply chain, production volumes from the defense sector hold less significance than the commercial side, according to Tumazos. Commercial aerospace trends are more meaningful for the metals industry overall, he said.
Trump stocks reveal manufacturing interests
Dec. 13, 2016
American Metal Market
By: Grace LavigneRegardless, Trump’s 2015 stock portfolio values are “immaterial,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“I would characterize this as a broadly diversified portfolio that is worth a couple of holes on a golf course,” he told AMM. “Clearly the stock portfolio is not significant.”However, Trump should probably “step back” from his running any businesses he owns directly—which are mostly within the realm of commercial real estate—and maybe let his children take the reins, according to Tumazos.“Trump’s situation is complicated and we should accept the fact that we have a president with practical business and life experience,” he said.An initial public offering of his businesses does not seem like an ideal alternative for Trump because it would require him to pay 7 percent in underwriting fees and 15 percent in discounts to entice mutual funds to buy the stocks, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, Tumazos noted.
Regardless, Trump’s 2015 stock portfolio values are “immaterial,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“I would characterize this as a broadly diversified portfolio that is worth a couple of holes on a golf course,” he told AMM. “Clearly the stock portfolio is not significant.”However, Trump should probably “step back” from his running any businesses he owns directly—which are mostly within the realm of commercial real estate—and maybe let his children take the reins, according to Tumazos.“Trump’s situation is complicated and we should accept the fact that we have a president with practical business and life experience,” he said.An initial public offering of his businesses does not seem like an ideal alternative for Trump because it would require him to pay 7 percent in underwriting fees and 15 percent in discounts to entice mutual funds to buy the stocks, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, Tumazos noted.
Trump win sends steel stocks higher
Dec. 1, 2016
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
A sluggish US steel market is piling extra pressure on its domestic scrap industry, while the strong dollar has been hitting scrap exports, writes Myra Pinkham
Nov. 2016
Metal Bulletin Magazine
By: Myra PinkhamNot everyone, however, has been able to do so. John Tumazos, the principal and metal analyst for New Jersey-based Very Independent Research, estimates that about 500 US scrap yards have either gone out of business or have been sold off to either other scrap processors or steel mills with scrap processing assets over the past two years.
Some Kirkland Lake shareholders urde miner to engage with bidders
Nov. 16, 2016
The Globe and Mail
By Reuters Nicole Mordant and John Tilak
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/some-kirkland-lake-shareholders-urge-miner-to-engage-with-bidders/article32877865/
“Your shareholders deserve the opportunity to vote on the best offer for the company, and the board has a fiduciary duty to find it,” Kirkland Lake shareholder John Tumazos, chief executive of New Jersey-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research, wrote in a Nov. 14 letter to the miner’s board.Mr. Tumazos has voted his 215,950 Kirkland Lake shares against the Newmarket deal, he said in the letter seen by Reuters.Some Kirkland Lake shareholders urge miner to engage with bidders
Nov. 16, 2016
Reuters
By Nicole Mordant and John Tilak
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kirkland-lake-m-a-idUSKBN13B2MG“Your shareholders deserve the opportunity to vote on the best offer for the company, and the board has a fiduciary duty to find it,” Kirkland Lake shareholder John Tumazos, Chief Executive of New Jersey-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research, wrote in a Nov. 14 letter to the miner’s board.Tumazos has voted his 215,950 Kirkland Lake shares against the Newmarket deal, he said in the letter seen by Reuters.
Gold miner Kirkland Lake shares rise on bid speculation
Nov. 14, 2016
Reuters
Reporting by Nicole Mordant in Vancouver; Editing by Will Dunham and Meredith Mazzilli
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kirkland-lake-m-a-idUSKBN1391SG“People are hoping that there is another bid or that somebody else votes against the merger,” said John Tumazos, owner and chief executive of John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
“Now that the C$1.4 billion price is in the market, some other company can look at that and say, we’ll bid C$100 million more,” he said.
ATI idling Pa. titanium bar, wire operations
Sept. 28, 2016
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
The Frackville idling is consistent with ATI’s cost-cutting strategy, according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
Kennametal expects flat sales next year, hopes to boost profits through cost-cutting
Sept. 13, 2016
TribeLive Business
By Chris Fleisher
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/11135101-74/kennametal-prices-oil
Kennametal’s outlook may be better than the company is forecasting, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey. Tumazos said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back. Oil and natural gas prices have nearly doubled since February and March.
Kennametal to eliminate 1,000 jobs amid downturn
Aug. 1, 2016
TribeLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10887053-74/million-kennametal-cents
John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back from lows earlier this year.Kennametal would be expected to benefit from the rebound, Tumazos said.“The worst is over,” he said. “The mining and metals and oil and gas will rebound back and forth, and the downturns may last for a couple years, but there will be a cyclical recovery.”John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back from lows earlier this year.Kennametal would be expected to benefit from the rebound, Tumazos said.“The worst is over,” he said. “The mining and metals and oil and gas will rebound back and forth, and the downturns may last for a couple years, but there will be a cyclical recovery.”Aluminum producer Alcoa spinoff to shed $9 billion in debt
Wednesday, June 29, 2016, 11:00 p.m.
BY ALEX NIXON
Link: http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10706591-74/alcoa-company-debt
With low metal prices causing financial losses in Alcoa’s commodity aluminum business, it’s important that the spin-off company starts out with low debt levels, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.Alcoa Corp. is going to have difficultly turning a profit following the separation given the global overcapacity in the aluminum market, Tumazos said.“The aluminum business is difficult,” he said. “That’s why all the debt went to the other company.”
Investors don’t embrace Alcoa’s plan for splitting company, debt
June 29, 2016 10:03 PM
By Len Boselovic / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Link: http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2016/06/29/Alcoa-vows-to-complete-split-this-year/stories/201606290179
“The upside of separating is not as much as we hoped,” said John Tumazos, an independent Holmdel, N.J. metals industry analyst.He blamed depressed metal prices, the strong dollar, and a disappointing performance from Firth Rixson, a jet engine components manufacturer Alcoa acquired two years ago. The United Kingdom-based unit will become part of the Arconic business following the split.
A Contrarian take on Kirkland
June 21, 2016
Bloomberg
By Barry Critchley
June 21 (Financial Post) — John Tumazos is a U.S.-based
metals and forest products analyst who has a particular
interest in the Canadian gold sector. For many years Tumazos
plied his trade on the Street – where he was a perennial all-
star. For the past few years he has run his own research
company – known as Very Independent Research LLC – where he
sells the service to more than 30 institutional investors. He
is also an investor in some of the companies that he researches.
Recently he weighed in on Kirkland Lake Gold Inc., an
Ontario-based company that “owns the five former high grade
mines,” and which expects to produce 270,000-290,000 ounces of
gold this year. The company recently replaced its chief
executive, George Ogilvie, with Tony Makuch, who is expected to
arrive in a few weeks. In February 2015, Eric Sprott was named
chairman.
Tumazos has now downgraded Kirkland Lake, a stock that he
owns, to neutral from overweight. He gave two reasons: price
appreciation (over the past year the stock is up by 86.90 per
cent) and “future direction uncertainties.” Part of his
reasoning is that none of the company’s board – there are six
directors in all with Makuch set to be named to the board
shortly – had the “strength of will” to tell Sprott to stand
down to keep former CEO George Ogilvie. In his report, Tumazos
said Kirkland had “just reported record gold output and record
quarterly profits after turning around the difficult Macassa
mine.”
According to Bloomberg, 10 analysts, eight of whom rate it
either a buy or outperform, follow Kirkland. Four of the 10
have published reports since last week’s annual meeting, none
of whom have changed their view. Dundee’s Ron Stewart is the
last to alter his view: He changed to neutral from a buy in mid-
May but he upped his target to $12 from $10.50. Stewart changed
his view based on valuation.
Tumazos’ report was written after last week’s annual
meeting, which showed that Sprott received the highest support
from shareholders, with more than 98 per cent of the votes
being for Sprott. Support for the other five directors was in
the 83 to 84 per cent range. About 70 per cent of 115.6 million
shares outstanding were voted at the meeting. “The safety of
taking profits and the boardroom uncertainty at Kirkland
motivate our downgrade to neutral weight,” he wrote.
Tumazos said that “ultimately” he expects Kirkland Lake to
be bought by another Canadian gold miner.
He discounts an overseas buyer and doesn’t rule out the
return of George Ogilvie, the former chief executive. “However,
boardroom uncertainty may depress Kirkland’s valuation until it
is bought out,” he wrote.
A couple of days after that report, more than eight
million shares of Kirkland Lake were traded on the TSX. That
amount of stock represents more than five times the normal
average trading volume. Given the number of trades and the
number of brokerage firms involved, it’s not obvious that one
investor was acquiring a meaningful position, as part of a
possible takeover.
Trading on Friday capped a busy week with volume on all
five days being larger than normal. For the week the shares
were off by $1 – or 8.32 per cent. On Monday, trading volume
had returned to more normal levels. The shares closed at $11.
Financial Post says Tumazos cuts Kirkland Lake Gold to “neutral”
June 21, 2016
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc (C:KGI)
Shares Issued 114,321,605
Last Close 6/20/2016 $11.00
Tuesday June 21 2016 – In the NewsThe Financial Post reports in its Tuesday, June 21, edition that John Tumazos is a metals and forest products analyst who has a particular interest in the Canadian gold sector. The Post’s Barry Critchley writes that for the past few years he has run his own research company — known as Very Independent Research LLC — where he sells the service to more than 30 institutional investors. He is also an investor in some of the companies that he researches. Recently he weighed in on Kirkland Lake Gold. Mr. Tumazos has cut Kirkland Lake to “neutral” from “overweight.” He gave two reasons: price appreciation (over the past year the stock is up by 86.9 per cent) and “future direction uncertainties.” Part of his reasoning is that none of the company’s board had the “strength of will” to tell chairman Eric Sprott to stand down to keep former chief executive officer George Ogilvie. Mr. Tumazos notes Kirkland had “reported record gold output and record quarterly profits after turning around the difficult Macassa mine.” Ten analysts, eight of whom rate it either a “buy” or “outperform,” follow Kirkland. Four of the 10 have published reports since last week’s annual meeting, none of have changed their view.© 2016 Canjex Publishing Ltd
U. S. to investigate U. S. Steel’s complaints against Chinese producers
May 26, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10533931-74/steel-chinese-producers
U.S. Steel alleged China’s military hacked the company’s computers in 2011 and stole formulas for specialized high-strength steel used in the automotive industry. The military allegedly shared the proprietary information with Chinese steelmakers, allowing them to quickly develop the technology.The alleged hacking led to a 2014 federal indictment of Chinese military officials, who were charged by the U.S. Attorney in Pittsburgh with infiltrating computers at American companies, including U.S. Steel, Alcoa Inc. and Westinghouse Electric Co.John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said U.S. Steel was right to fight back, but that even if the company prevails, the domestic steel industry faces a fundamental headwind in weak demand.“The rhetoric of the steel industry focuses on imports, but the practical issue is that consumption is very poor,” he said.
Union set to discuss ArcelorMittal labor pact
April 29, 2016
American Metal Market
By Nat Rudarakanchana
ArcelorMittal has had the “strongest bargaining position” compared with other U.S. producers lately, partly because it had the option of closing unionized mills and running healthy non-union mills, said John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC,
“I expect that they (ArcelorMittal) bargained harder than any other company,” he said. “I’m surprised that ArcelorMittal did not play the strong hand they had even more emphatically.”
ATI staff cuts seen reflecting low output
April 19, 2016
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal“Now that those (unionized) workers have come back, ATI is recalibrating things for the amount of sales they (are expecting),” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
The layoffs, coupled with no new arrangements with the United Steelworkers union to restart its plants in Midland and Bagdad, Pa.—and no potential joint ventures with West Chester, Ohio-based AK Steel Corp. or Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp. to get more volume through the billion-dollar hot-rolling and processing facility in Brackenridge, Pa. (amm.com, Feb. 10)—suggest the steelmaker is preparing for low production volumes, he said.Tumazos called the development “very sad” as a lot of skilled people will lose their jobs, some of whom might have worked in production roles at the mills while unionized workers were locked out.
U.S. Steel will lay off 25 percent of its salaried workers
April 6, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10263460-74/steel-workers-salarie
“U.S. Steel is just trying to survive,” said John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst from New Jersey. “There are a number of indicators in the steel market that aren’t very good.”
ATI shares outlook at @John Tumazos event, upbeat on #aerospace, #automotive following rightsizing, labor strife:
April 1, 2016
Twitter
Grace Lavigne@GraceLavigne
ATI pins hopes on next-gen aero, auto marts
April 1, 2016
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
ATI shares outlook at @JohnTumazos event, upbeat on #aerospace, #automotive following rightsizing, labor strife: http://www.amm.com/Article/3542452/Home/ATI-pins-hopes-on-next-gen-aero-auto-marts.html …
“Our largest market is commercial aerospace,” Greenfield said during a presentation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York March 31. “Of that subset, jet engines is our largest market, and that’s where we see part of our growth going forward, particularly next-generation engine materials as well as spare parts.”
“A significant number of cars around the world are moving from fuel-injected to turbocharged engines, and they’re just running hotter,” he told AMM on the sidelines of the conference.
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://tmrcorp.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=164
TEXAS MINERAL RESOURCES TO WEBCAST PRESENTATION AT THE JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH METALS AND NATURAL RESOURCES CONFERENCE ON MARCH 31
SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, March 29, 2016 (MARKETWIRED) — Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TMRC), an exploration company specializing in the heavy rare earths and a variety of other high-value elements and minerals, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Chairman of the Board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Natural Resources Conference at 8:00 A.M. EDT in NYC. The Conference will be available via webcast.John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Details:Date: Thursday, March 31, 2016
Presenting Time: 8:00 A.M. to 8:35 A.M. EDT
Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
212 East 42nd Street, New York
Room: Grand Central “A” RoomFor more information please visit: http://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/Webcasting link: http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15
Azimut will present today at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2016 Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New YorkLongueuil, Quebec – Azimut Exploration Inc. (“Azimut” or “the Company”) (TSXV: AZM) announces that the Company will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference to be held in New York city on Thursday March 31, 2016.Jean-Marc Lulin, President and CEO of Azimut, will be presenting at the conference at 5:40 P.M. (ET) Thursday, March 31, 2016. Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15. No password is required.Azimut is a mineral exploration company with the objective of discovering major ore deposits. The Company’s core business is target generation using advanced data processing methodologies, concurrently with partnership development. Azimut maintains a rigorous financial discipline to limit shareholder dilution. The Company has 37.6 million shares outstanding (43.4% held by insiders and institutional funds), no debt and $1.2 million in working capital.
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
ow.ly/1064Tw
NorthAmericanNickel@NAmericanNickel
We’re on site TODAY @JohnTumazos #mining conference in #NYC! Tune in at 9:45am EST to hear the #NAN team speak: ow.ly/1064Tw
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://www.terangagold.com/investors/events/default.aspx
John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference
March 31, 2016
01:00 PM EST
New York City
Speaker(s):
Richard Young , President & CEO
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://www.trimetalsmining.com/news/
TriMetals Mining Inc. to Attend the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2016 Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York on Thursday, March 31, 2016
by tmadmin | Mar 29, 2016 | 2016 |
March 29, 2016, Vancouver, British Columbia—TriMetals Mining Inc. (TSX: TMI and TMI.B, US OTCQX: TMIAF and TMIBF), (the “Company”), is pleased to announce that the Company will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference to be held in New York city on Thursday March 31, 2016.
Ralph Fitch, President and CEO of the Company, will be presenting at the conference at 3.55 P.M. (ET) this Thursday, March 31, 2016. Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15. No password is required.
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://www.westerncopperandgold.com/event/john-tumazos-very-independent-research-llc-metals-and-mining-conference-2/
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC: Metals and Mining Conference
Mar 31, 2016
Event Navigation
Dr. Paul West-Sells, President and CEO, and Chris Donaldson, Manager, Corporate Development will be attending the annual John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference in New York City.Paul West-Sells will be presenting at 1pm Eastern Time on March 31, 2016.
Details
Date:
Mar 31, 2016
Website:
http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/conferences/
Venue
Western Grand Central Hotel
212 East 42nd Street
New York, NY United StatesView the webcast here http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/conferences/
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
Henk J. Krasenberg’s photo
https://twitter.com/goldview
http://www.europeangoldcentre.com/audio-video
Good morning to you John,To my sincere regret, I am still not able to come to New York and attend your conference this Thursday. My recovery process from my leg operation is still bothering me too much. Nevertheless, I wish you all the possible success with your event. You succeeded again in assembling a nice and high quality group of companies that have the substance to enable investors to benefit from what in my opinion is coming in the resource markets over the remainder of this year.This morning, I posted the announcement below on my website, inviting my audience to follow your event via the webcast. I will be certainly glued to my computer this Thursday not to miss anything of the presentations.I will also post an announcement in the Social Media
John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
http://www.otisgold.com/news/index.php?&content_id=163
News Otis to Present at Tumazos Conference
March 24, 2016Vancouver, B.C. – Otis Gold Corp. (“Otis” or “the Company”) will be presenting at The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference on March 31st, 2016 in New York City, NY. CEO and President Craig Lindsay will present on March 31st at 4:30 pm (EST) in the Mid Caps Track. Interested parties are invited to register and listen to the live webcast by visiting www.veryindependentresearch.com and clicking the “conferences” tab or Click Here. No security or password is required. Mr. Lindsay will be also available for one-on-one meetings on March 31st and April 1st and can be reached via email at info@otisgold.com or the contact information below to arrange.About the CompanyOtis is a resource company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal deposits in Idaho, USA. Otis is currently developing its flagship property, the Kilgore Gold Project, located in Clark County, Idaho.ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD“Craig T. Lindsay”
Invest Yukon New York Reception March 30, 2016
http://www.yukonminingalliance.ca/YMA-NY-Luncheon2016.html
On behalf of everyone at the Yukon Mining Alliance, we would like to extend an invitation to our spring NYC reception sponsored by Alexco Resource Corp, Western Copper and Gold Corp and Victoria Gold Corp. Join us this evening for appetizers and beverages at the Salon de Ning, Peninsula Hotel from 4pm-6pm.We wish everyone a positive and productive time at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Convention and a prosperous year.We look forward to seeing you this evening.On behalf of everyone at the Yukon Mining Alliance, we would like to extend an invitation to our spring NYC reception sponsored by Alexco Resource Corp, Western Copper and Gold Corp and Victoria Gold Corp. Join us this evening for appetizers and beverages at the Salon de Ning, Peninsula Hotel from 4pm-6pm.We wish everyone a positive and productive time at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Convention and a prosperous year.We look forward to seeing you this evening.
John Tumazos-Will Doom for Central Bankers Mean “Boom Time: for Gold Shares?
Interview with Jay Taylor
March 1, 2016
By J. Taylor Media
Taylor Hard Money Advisors, Inc.Audio:
http://jaytaylormedia.com/media/JohnTumazos20160301.mp3
You Tube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZB9DflQRL0&feature=youtu.be
Allegheny Technologies, steelworkers have fences to mend after lockout
Feb. 24, 2016
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
“Business is worse now than it was when the contract expired June 30. Business is worse than it was when the lockout started,” said John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. ”They’ve got to figure out how to get more business.
ATI and USW reach tentative agreement
Feb. 24, 2016
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal“It’s notable the steelworkers aren’t crowing about the specific terms (of the agreement) because they have to sell it to the workers,” analyst John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. Among the variables to consider, he said, will be whether or not there are any changes to wages, signing bonuses, and health premiums and co-payments.“The settlement is like the first kickoff in a football game,” he said, noting that nobody wins in a strike or lockout,The whole situation is “very sad” for the rank and file, Tumazos added, because those 2,200 locked-out workers went for half a year without pay. “It’s possible some of the union members will have a rally and protest the union, he said. “The union charges them dues and what they got in return was losing half-a-year’s pay.”Tumazos noted that business conditions have deteriorated since the lockout. Close to 600 people were laid off and about a quarter of flat-rolled output was taken offline after ATI announced it would temporarily shutter its facilities at Midland and Bagdad, Pa.The company now has to figure out how to make these facilities low-cost and viable, or else how to be more competitive in new product lines, Tumazos said. The new challenge will be figuring out how to make new steel, he added.
Bad blood in ATI lockout expected to linger
TribLive Business
Feb. 23, 2016
By Alex Nixon and Tom Yerace
Link:
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10023623-74/ati-union-labor
John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., suggested that the ill will may flow the other way because the union was unwilling to offer concessions when ATI was hurting financially.The company in January reported a 29 percent drop in fourth-quarter revenue and a $227 million loss driven by one-time expenses related to the declining value of its Flat Rolled Products unit.“Allegheny said they needed concessions, and I think they were telling the truth,” Tumazos said. “Their numbers haven’t been good.”
ATI seeks hot mill partners, analysts skeptical
Feb. 11, 2016
American Metal Market
By Carla BridglalU.S. Steel might be an option, but the company is in worse shape than when it first started considering teaming up with ATI two or three years ago, echoed John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Very Independent Resarch LLC in Holmdel, N.J. “Think of the causality involving ATI, and don’t think of it being driven by U.S. Steel,” he said.But ATI’s priority should be asset turnover, he said—the more products and revenue it can get from use of the new facility, the more likely it is to turn a profit. “There are a litany of things possible, but what is needed is for ATI to get many more profitable tons across Brackenridge,” Tumazos said
Among possible options, Tumazos said ATI could consider striking a deal with the local union in Midland to restart production, creating a supply for Brackenridge and stimulating profitability. The company might also consider a joint venture for a foreign company to process its unfinished material at ATI’s facility, he said.
Steel workers ratify contract with U.S. Steel
Feb. 2, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9898424-74/union-steel-health
John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., called the pact “a draw.” Based on a summary of the contract proposal sent to union members, Tumazos said, he estimated U.S. Steel will save between 2 percent and 4 percent a year on costs related to the union workforce.“Given the kind of money U.S. Steel lost in the fourth quarter … the union didn’t step up to save them,” he said..
ATI notches loss in 4Q to end “difficult year”
Jan. 26, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9858807-74/company-ati-million
John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he is concerned about how the company will increase revenue as it idles capacity and cuts capital spending that is needed to develop high-value products.In particular, Tumazos said ATI needs to boost volumes at its Brackenridge Hot Rolling & Processing Facility, a $1.2 billion state-of-the-art plant in Harrison that was opened last year.“They have this problem: they need more volume for Brackenridge,” he said. “They need more volume and more revenue, especially in the flat-rolled segment.”
$ B loss booked by U. S. Steel
Jan. 26, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9859057-74/steel-company-loss
But the company’s cash flow in 2015 was down 77 percent from the previous year, which is a better indicator of its weakness than the large net loss, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. The loss included $1.2 billion in one-time, non-cash charges.After stashing nearly $1.5 billion in cash through 2014, which had been the highest level in nine years, U.S. Steel dipped into its savings to get through 2015, and “they will need it in 2016,” Tumazos said.Longhi didn’t “sugarcoat the crap,” Tumazos said, in delivering an outlook that includes continued pressure from depressed prices.
Stainless import spike spurs talk of trade cases
Jan. 13, 2016
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
“The December imports are very high in relation to how poor the demand for stainless has been in the last couple of months,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. Most stainless steel products are very tailored to the application, so there is probably a “terrible excess” of commodity products.Still, the U.S. industry will likely opt to petition Congress for more help curbing imports than file trade cases, he added. “They’re only going to ask Congress to change the law to (better regulate imports).”U.S. imports of blooms, billets and slabs logged the biggest month-on-month increase, surging by nearly sevenfold, while cold-rolled sheet registered a 3,417-tonne (18.3-percent) gain in the same comparison.
Rubicon Minerals’ F2 deposit is uneconomic
Jan. 11, 2016
The Northern Miner
By Trish Saywell
http://www.northernminer.com/news/rubicon-minerals-f2-deposit-is-uneconomic/1003746846/
A revised geological model and updated resource estimate that eviscerates much of the tonnes and grade at Rubicon Minerals Corp (TSX: RMX; NYSE-MKT: RBY) F2 gold deposit means that more exploration would be required at depth and along strike to develop an economic mining operation there, and the company is now evaluating strategic options that could include a sale.
The company started trial mining the F2 deposit on its Phoenix property in the Red Lake district of Ontario last year, but the geology was more complex than previously thought, and underground operations were halted in November to allow Rubicon and its independent consultants the time to analyze geological models.On Jan. 11 the company announced that contained gold ounces in the updated 2016 indicated resource category have plunged 91% from the 2013 resource estimate, while contained gold ounces in the inferred category have fallen 86% compared with the earlier estimate.The revised model and updated resource prepared by SRK Consulting was based upon information from recent development, trial stoping, chip sampling, underground structural mapping, and 94,600 metres of infill drilling within a concentrated shallow area of the deposit, all of which were not previously available, Rubicon said.“We believe that at current and projected gold prices, there just isn’t enough tonnes and grade above the 305-level to economically support stand-alone trial stoping,” Michael Winship, Rubicon’s interim president and chief executive officer, said on a brief conference call.The updated resource estimate now puts indicated resources at 492,000 tonnes grading 6.73 grams gold per tonne for 106,000 oz. of contained gold, down from the 2013 estimate of 4.12 million tonnes grading 8.52 grams gold for 1.13 million oz. contained gold. The revised numbers were based on a 4.0 gram gold per tonne cut-off.Inferred resources have fallen from the 7.45 million tonnes grading 9.26 grams gold for 2.22 million oz. of contained gold in 2013, to 1.52 million tonnes averaging 6.28 grams gold for 307,000 oz. gold.In a press release and accompanying conference call, Rubicon’s management team explained that information from the new drilling and recent trial stoping had significantly changed the understanding of the variable spatial distribution of the gold mineralization and that the new geological information “highlighted the complexity of controls on the distribution of the gold mineralization, its grade, and its continuity.”“In particular, the distribution of the higher-grade mineralization is controlled by the intersection between the east-west trending D2 structures and the north-trending high-titanium basalt unit. The new data shows that the high-grade gold mineralization is less continuous than indicated in the 2013 SRK resource estimate, which was based upon less widely-spaced drilling data that was drilled sub-parallel to the D2 structures.”“Although this new resource estimate is very disappointing, we still believe in the potential of the F2 deposit and the land package we hold in Red Lake,” interim CEO Winship told investors and analysts on the call, adding that any further significant exploration work in the future “would require a recapitalization of the company.” Winship joined Rubicon’s board of directors in 2011 and was appointed interim president and CEO in October 2015, replacing Michael Lalonde.Nicholas Nikolakakis, Rubicon’s vice president and chief financial officer, noted on the conference call that the company’s $26.9 million of cash, of which $22.4 million is unrestricted cash, means that “the company currently has a definitely workable cash balance to see us through the strategic review process.”Winship added that the company continues to have ongoing discussions with its lenders, which include the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.In May 2015, Rubicon entered into a financing agreement with CPPIB Credit Investments for a US$50 million secured loan facility. The loan facility contained a covenant to achieve commercial production — defined as sixty consecutive days of production at 875 tonnes per day of processed mineralized material from the Phoenix gold project — by Feb. 12, 2016.Allan Candelario, Rubicon’s vice president investor relations, failed to provide answers to questions from The Northern Miner before press time regarding a breach of the production deadline outlined in the CPPIB debt covenant, or why Rubicon decided to proceed with mine development at F2 on the basis of a preliminary economic assessment alone, rather than taking the more conventional steps of completing a prefeasibility or feasibility study.Financing for the Phoenix project and construction of F2 has also come from Royal Gold (TSX: RGL; NASDAQ: RGLD), which in February 2014 entered into a $75 million gold stream with Rubicon. Royal Gold’s shares fell 10.2%, or $5.42, to $47.70.In a brief note to clients entitled “Royal Gold Singed by the Phoenix,” analyst Andrew Kaip of BMO Nesbitt Burns commented that the Phoenix gold stream downgrade “highlights the risk in investing in projects without adequate technical information and, in our view, will probably feed into investors concerns regarding the overall risk profile of the Royal Gold portfolio of streaming assets, which is dominated by Mt. Milligan. Additionally, the updated mineral resource may trigger an impairment of the Phoenix stream.”John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research and a senior analyst, told The Northern Miner that the implications of the F2 case far exceed the immediate impact on Rubicon, its lenders and its shareholders, and risks tainting the wider industry.”The interpretation of any high-grade resource loses credibility and real value after a situation like Rubicon’s,” he says in an interview following Rubicon’s conference call. “It makes everybody in the business lose some credibility with investors, whether it’s management, QPs, engineering firms, investment analysts — everybody has egg on their face.”As far as the prospects of a lawsuit are concerned, Tumazos says the biggest deterrent would be that there may not be anything left for subordinate creditors after the company pays back its debt.”In order for a plaintiff to have an economic victory the company has to have money to distribute,” he says. “A 90% reduction in the resource estimate undermines the ability of creditors or equity holders to get paid.”Tumazos calculates that of the company’s $228 million worth of fixed assets on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30, the majority is probably sunk into underground shaft and tunnels and development, with the mill representing about one-third of its fixed assets, and estimates the mill would command ten cents on the dollar in the current gold price environment.Shares of Rubicon declined 64.3%, or 9¢, to finish at 5¢ per share on a trading volume of 17.12 million.”This is a real shock as to what you’ve done here with this company … this is hurting me tremendously,” a private investor commented during the question and answer session of Rubicon’s Jan. 11 conference call. “I paid a lot of money for this stock and now you’re talking about a recapitalization, what does that mean?”In response, Winship said the news had disappointed the company, as well, and it was assessing various strategic alternatives.”I can assure you we’re very disappointed, as management and the board, at what’s transpired,” Winship said. “We certainly have moved very quickly as we realized through the trial stoping period in the summer and into the fall. We made press releases in October and November as we understood the implications, and then of course we’ve just very recently, in the last few days, received the resource estimate. We’re looking at the various strategic alternatives as we said in the press release, you know, whether it’s a divestiture or to find a way for Rubicon to go ahead as an exploration company. So really we can’t provide you a lot more detail at this time on those various strategic alternatives.”
Aluminum maker Alcoa tapers U.S. smelting, refining capacity
Jan. 7, 2016
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9758721-74/alcoa-company-capacity#axzz3wZSttYOP
Aluminum prices dropped 30 percent last year, and alumina prices fell 40 percent, the company said. At the same time, aluminum production around the world has remained high, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.Global output in November was the third-largest monthly total ever, Tumazos said, and Chinese production was up 16.5 percent through November, compared with the same period in 2014.Alcoa’s capacity reductions are a “natural reaction to low prices,” he said. “I think they’re just saying, ‘The market looks worse. The prices are bad. We’re going to produce less.’ ”Tumazos said the capacity reductions should not affect the viability of the primary metals company, which will retain the Alcoa name. Despite the weakness in its markets, it should be in good financial shape because the parts-manufacturing company, which has not been named, will retain Alcoa’s debt.“I don’t think this affects the spinoff,” he said.
ArcelorMittal pressured to follow USS labor deal
Dec. 21, 2015
American Metal Market
By:Michael CowdenThe U.S. Steel agreement represents a template that ArcelorMittal USA could choose to follow, but that doesn’t mean it will, said John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. ArcelorMittal, unlike U.S. Steel, has a “unique hardball alternative,” given its global scope and its nonunion plants in North America, in particular Hamilton, Ontario-based ArcelorMittal Dofasco Inc. and AM/NS Calvert LLC in Alabama, he said.ArcelorMittal will probably look at its union plants in the United States and decide whether it can operate them profitably under terms similar to those agreed to by U.S. Steel. If the math doesn’t work, the steelmaker could opt to “permanently shut them,” Tumazos said.“They are not making money, and people are in business to make money, not to dream,” he said. Besides, there is no way to dream away what Tumazos estimated is 763.5 million tonnes of unused crude steel capacity worldwide. “Anyone who hesitates to cut capacity right now might have a decision-making defect,” he said
U.S. Steel contract deal possibly forges path to end of disputes at ATI, ArcelorMittal
Dec. 21, 2015
TribLive Business
By: Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9672406-74/union-ati-steel#axzz3uxbjlVWR“Chances are U.S. Steel’s agreement is going to set the pattern” for concessions the union is willing to accept from ATI and ArcelorMittal, said John Tumazos, a steel industry analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.ATI’s labor costs per worker are higher than U.S. Steel’s, Tumazos said.Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal, which is headquartered in Luxembourg, has union-represented and non-union steel mills in the United States. The company, which owns a coke plant in Monessen, is taking “the hardest position” with the Steelworkers union to more closely align costs between its union and non-union mills, Tumazos said.“Arcelor has two large plants that are non-union, and they’re their most profitable plants,” he said.
Loss of trade case, competitive pressure precipitate ATI adlings
Dec. 14, 2015
American Metal Market
By: Thorsten Schier
Carla Bridglal, New York, contributed to this story.”ATI and AK (Steel Corp.) lost the GOES trade cases. The (preliminary) rulings were high dumping margins, and the (U.S. International Trade Commission) threw it out,” John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM via e-mail, referring to the ITC’s decision in October to strike down a trade case against GOES imports from China, the Czech Republic, Russia and South Korea (amm.com, Oct. 23).”The U.S. dollar is stronger, and there is huge overcapacity overseas,” he added.”Ditto (for) imports of stainless, and competition from (North American Stainless Inc.) in Kentucky and Outokumpu (Coil Americas) in Alabama, where employment costs 40 percent less. So business is terrible,” Tumazos said, noting that he didn’t see the ongoing labor dispute at the specialty steelmaker playing a role in the idlings.
Planned stainless hikes gain steam, stir doubt
Dec. 11, 2015
American Metal Market
By: Carla Bridglal
NEW YORK — U.S. stainless steel producers’ efforts to raise base prices in January appeared to gain momentum Dec. 10 as a third mill jumped on board the move, although some market sources are still skeptical the increase will succeed.Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI), which kicked off the move Dec. 7 and was followed two days later by AK Steel Corp., said they would lower their functional discounts by 4 percentage points.Outokumpu Coil Americas—part of Espoo, Finland-based Outokumpu Oyj—joined the effort Dec. 10, telling customers it would lift 200-, 300- and 430-series cold-rolled products by four discount points and all hot-rolled continuous mill plate products by 2 cents per pound, and polished extras will be reduced by 10 percentage points.Pittsburgh-based ATI’s base price increase applies to all grades of cold-rolled sheet and strip as well as tubular quality sheet and strip products. “The price increase is necessary to support continued growth and investment in our business,” the company said in a letter to customers.AK Steel’s increase applies to commodity sheet and strip, specialty sheet and strip, and pipe and tube sheet and strip products. Base prices for all other stainless steel products, including automotive sheet and strip, will be increased by $40 per ton ($2 per hundredweight), the West Chester, Ohio-based steelmaker said.Some industry sources suggested the increase is unlikely to stick unless market leader North American Stainless Inc. (NAS) backs the move.“I don’t know if (the price increase) will hold, especially in current market conditions,” one southern distributor source said.“The increase is fairly large, and though the producing mills certainly need a higher price, what they need may not always be collectable if competitive pressures exist that keep prices lower,” a market source in the Midwest said. “And those competitive pressures do exist. The sad fact of the global stainless market is that there is too much capacity, not just in China and Europe but in the U.S.”Outokumpu’s strategy has been to “fill the mill,” a move that has been criticized by its competitors for driving prices down but which has made the company more competitive because of more-efficient economies of scale at its Calvert, Ala., mill—a move that London-based financial advisory firm Jefferies International Ltd. highlighted in an analyst note earlier last week would be beneficial to the company but not so much to the industry (amm.com, Dec. 7).“Outokumpu has been a leader this year in a fill-the-mill strategy that has been a contributor to lower pricing. But taking all of this into account, if North American Stainless follows with their own price increase announcement then it’s likely that some increase will take effect,” the Midwest source said. “I hope the mills are able to collect it all, but with the capacity that exists it could be less than they want.”AMM’s latest assessment for cold-rolled stainless sheet ranges from $91.50 to $117 per cwt ($1,830 to $2,340 per ton), depending on the grade, down significantly from the start of the year, when prices were at $136 to $185 per cwt ($2,720 to $3,700 per ton).The increase could have been triggered by Tisco Trading USA Inc.’s notice last week that it intended to increase prices, market sources indicated.Canonsburg, Pa.-based Tisco did not immediately respond to AMM’s request for comment.It is unusual for an importer to lead a price increase, according to a source in the Northeast, but he said it “has no chance of sticking” unless Ghent, Ky.-based NAS makes a move. “I suspect that it’s a revenue-neutral move since surcharges have been dropping and they’re trying to create a bottom in the market,” he added.Surcharges have been tumbling since May, pushed down by plummeting commodity prices, notably nickel, iron ore and molybdenum (amm.com, Nov. 24).The move is curious, some sources said, especially since NAS has already begun informing customers that it will lower prices on bar products beginning next month (amm.com, Dec. 7).John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, disagreed. He suggested that the mills’ increase might be in anticipation of a restocking cycle, or a rebound in nickel prices as stocks fall, following a reduction in inventory across the industry. “I don’t think it’s weird (that some producers have raised prices); it might be dumb for NAS to cut prices while nickel supply is falling,” he said.Nickel stocks on the London Metal Exchange stood at 399,888 tonnes at the start of business Dec. 10, down 15 percent from this year’s peak of 470,376 tonnes in early June. However, U.S. stocks have been increasing, with 3,588 tonnes held in Baltimore warehouses at the close of business Dec. 8 vs. 1,548 tonnes June 3.
In Pennsylvania, a Steel Mill and Its Workers at a Crossroads
Dec. 3, 2015
The New York Times
By: Steven Greenhouse
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/in-pennsylvania-a-steel-mill-and-its-workers-at-a-crossroads.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&_r=0
But John Tumazos, a steel industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J., criticized the union’s approach. “Leo Gerard, the union’s president, is thinking of the century-old model, holding rallies in downtown Pittsburgh and mill towns, when this company is between a rock and a hard place,” Mr. Tumazos said. “The union isn’t making things better. They should be holding their protest rallies in Beijing.”
Reliance tube distributor buy deemed timely
Dec. 2, 2015
American Metal Market
By Emilia David
The move is well-timed, according to one analyst. “Reliance seems to have bought an energy-related company at an opportune time. Oil prices have collapsed, so they’re not paying a peak price,” John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
The Los Angeles-based company was fortunate because “people don’t like to sell business at the worst moment in the business,” he said, referring to the low price environment for most metals, particularly steel, and the continuing downtrend of the energy sector.
USS temporarily idling steelmaking, finishing operations at Granite City
Nov. 24, 2015
American Metal Market
By: Michael Cowden
CHICAGO — U.S. Steel Corp.’s idling of its Granite City Works in Illinois could be among the catalysts for a 2016 price rebound, according to one steel industry analyst
Other steel experts disagreed, however, contending that the mill will continue to struggle with an import glut and competition from lower-cost domestic mini-mills.
The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker had to idle Granite City (amm.com, Nov. 23), given a steep decline in oilfield activity and demand for the flat-rolled steel used to make welded energy tubulars, said John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
But consumers shouldn’t assume that steel will remain abundant and prices cheap, Tumazos warned. With gasoline prices low and employment strong, automotive demand—a big driver of steel consumption—should remain firm even as steelmakers continue to cut capacity, he said. As steel capacity is slashed, scrapyards are going out of business and service centers are consolidating or filing for bankruptcy, Tumazos said, and as they do, inventory is liquidated, further accelerating a destocking process that has been underway for months.
With additional integrated mill shutdowns expected, the market could become tight should a harsh winter impede iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes or if a mill were to go offline unexpectedly, perhaps because of a mishap or labor dispute, Tumazos said. And if mini-mills look to ramp up in response, they might find scrap harder than expected to come by. While Granite City is idled for the time being, it might restart as soon as the second quarter of 2016, Tumazos said. That’s when the market is likely to rebound—even if the flat-rolled trade cases have little impact—because of capacity cuts and leaner inventories. The world is awash in excess steel and base metals, Tumazos conceded, but that capacity is “geographically maldistributed.” “Having excess steel or aluminum capacity in China is not going to help someone manufacture in Ohio in a pinch in the middle of winter,” he said. “Are manufacturers in the Midwest going to airfreight it from China?”
Brazil’s mining tragedy: was it a preventable disaster?
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/nov/25/brazils-mining-tragedy-dam-preventable-disaster-samarco-vale-bhp-billiton
ATI to nix locked-out workers’ health benefits
Nov. 10, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal“It’s all very sad and I don’t know how it’s going to play out,” according to John Tumazos, analyst and president of Very Independent Research LLC in Holmdel, N.J. “When ATI made their last, best, final offer their results got worse; it appears (their offer) was to be too generous based on market conditions.”“For ATI, trying to maintain wages and pensions and giving a signing bonus appears to be too generous relative to their ability to make a profit or in the long run stay in business,” Tumazos said.The union should really be negotiating with the Chinese government, Tumazos said, because of the shifting dynamic in the industry, and the U.S. government doesn’t seem to realize there’s a problem in the industry.“We wish the Chinese hadn’t built so many steel mills and the U.S. dollar wasn’t so strong, and we wish the non-union competitors in Alabama and Kentucky weren’t making a million and a half tons of stainless, but it is what it is,” he said.For the union—currently in negotiations with U.S. Steel Corp, Pittsburgh; ArcelorMittal SA, Luxembourg; and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., Cleveland—ATI might not be the biggest challenge it faces.“Arcelor(Mittal)’s two biggest plants are non-union, in Hamilton, Ontario, and Calvert, Ala. There is a scenario where Arcelor(Mittal) locks out their union plants and simply runs their two non-union plants full and profitably. So ATI terminating health-care benefits is not the worst thing happening maybe if these negotiations play out,” Tumazos said.
U. S. Steel praises tariffs on Chinese imports, doesn’t rule out plant closures
Nov. 5, 2015
TribLive Business
By Chris Fleisher
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9378344-74/steel-company-longhi#axzz3qchIItAR
U.S. Steel must get its labor costs down, analysts said. The company is negotiating a new contract with the United Steelworkers. Longhi said he hopes to reach an agreement “that recognized the structural challenges in our industry” and would avoid a work stoppage. The union did not respond to requests for comment.“What’s most important is that they do not sign a contract where they cannot make a profit,” said John Tumazos, an independent steel industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J. “The union bargaining position that says all this is temporary and they can just go on like before is really not realistic. It’s a bargaining position, but it’s not realistic.
The outlook for U.S. Steel: bleak and bleaker
Nov. 1, 2015
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/image/2015/10/31/20151101us-steel-shares481-png
“Many things look very bleak,” said John Tumazos, an independent metals analyst from Holmdel, N.J. “Mario has done a lot of what he can do. I think they’ve done a good job not to be in worse shape.”What ails U.S. Steel and other domestic producers is largely out of their control — China’s huge surplus of steelmaking capacity.Mr. Tumazos estimates there may be 700 million or 800 million metric tons of excess steelmaking capacity globally, with China accounting for 500 million to 600 million metric tons of it. By comparison, U.S. mills shipped 98 million tons last year.“I don’t see any scenario where the tube business is good next year,” Mr. Tumazos said.Because China’s massive overcapacity augurs tough days ahead for U.S. steel producers, Mr. Tumazos believes the time is ripe for U.S. Steel to win concessions.“The issue is: how long does the union maintain this illusion that business is temporarily bad,” he said.
ATI lockout seen unlikely to end soon
Oct. 14, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said there didn’t seem to be any other reasonable alternatives to the current options: bringing in replacement workers; ATI spinning off its flat-rolled division similar to Alcoa Inc.’s planned split of its upstream and downstream business; and ATI filing for bankruptcy protection, which could erase many retirement benefit obligations.Tumazos also noted that union officials weren’t acting in the best interest of workers by prolonging the negotiations. “People aren’t drawing paychecks and the union strike fund is very small,” he said. “The union does not want the individual plant work forces competing with one another on wages.”
Other segments nudge Alcoa to slim profit
Oct. 8, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9232618-74/alcoa-aluminum-million#axzz3nt3XQR4D
“God bless them to not have lost any money,” said John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. “To be just down a little bit when the aluminum price has been falling like a rock is pretty good.
ATI gearing up for third-quarter loss
Oct. 8, 2015
American Metal Market
By Mei Ling Toh
“ATI’s employment cost of union workers is $77 per hour compared to U.S. Steel (Corp.)’s at $57 per hour. This is a very big gap,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM Oct. 7.Tumazos pointed out that ATI did not shut any of its larger plants, while Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel has shut down many of its steel mills over the last 40 years. “U.S. Steel is more disadvantaged in retiree benefits and they are still lower in cost. These issues are very substantial,” he said.“There will be a little bit about specific volume declines when they report earnings later this month. If the high-performance business has declined in earnings, we can assume the deterioration in nickel prices had a larger impact than titanium volume and forging mix,” he said.
Freeport-McMoRan Reviewing Options for Oil and Gas Business
Oct. 6, 2015
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Miller and Tess Stynes
http://www.wsj.com/articles/freeport-mcmoran-reviewing-options-for-oil-and-gas-business-1444136221?cb=logged0.5429269601590931
Splitting the firm in two “makes each a more viable takeover target,” said John Tumazos,a New Jersey-based metals analyst and investor who said he owns 3,000 shares in Freeport……One aim of the new structure would be “self-funding of the oil and gas business from its cash flows and resources,” Freeport said.“The mining company won’t have to pay for drilling contracts anymore,” said Mr. Tumazos. “The oil and gas company won’t be allowed to rob the piggy bank.”
Analysts divided on path ATI should take
Oct. 2, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
But the suggestion isn’t entirely new. John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, suggested in an August report that if the company were to split into two distinct units-an aerospace/specialty division and the stainless/electrical steel division-the combined share price would be almost four and half times its current value of around $14.
The aerospace division, including titanium products and specialty alloys, would be valued at $51.32 per share, the report estimated, while the stainless/electrical division, including flat-rolled products, would be valued at $10.91 per share.
While ATI’s current business model is built on pursuing “a strategy of product growth, innovation, higher value added and cost reduction in diverse long-term investments…(possible alternatives) include a second strategy of demerging flat-rolled products and high-performance alloys to permit a premium valuation to aerospace units; a third tactic of selling out in total’ or a fourth strategy of selling zirconium, forgings, the Rowley titanium sponge or exiting electrical steels to focus on the three larger stainless, titanium and nickel units,” it added.
Market forces could prompt change as the company’s share rice underperforms, and many of ATI’s various technologies are highly marketable as individual assets, the report said. “The $605-million sale of the tungsten division in 2013 illustrates that some ATI assets and technologies are worth much to another strategic owner even though no earnings are discernible within ATI.”
Icahn can flex his muscles
Sept. 30, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keen
http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/icahn-can-flex-his-muscles/
Clearly, one possible explanation for the short turnaround on what were long-life contracts is that he is keen to start work on a proxy fight. “The quick exercise gives him voting power earlier,” notes John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, in an email. “He may be committing capital to prepare a proxy battle. Proposals could include a demerger like Alcoa announced Monday, or South32 from BHP; reduced management compensation; and eliminating ‘office of the chairman.’” If Icahn takes control of the company, Freeport’s “office of the chairman” trio become a prime target. The tight-knit group comprises James R. Moffett, Chairman, Richard C. Adkerson, vice chairman and President and CEO, and James C. Flores, also vice chairman
Alcoa splitting into 2 companies, separating core aluminum, components
Sept. 28, 2015
TribLive News
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/9169777-74/company-products-aluminum#axzz3n8gMTGvP
John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research, in Holmdel, N.J., said Alcoa’s aluminum commodity business has been hurt by China’s lower consumption and by cheaper Chinese supplies.Those pressures have increased more than expected this year, Tumazos said.“I think the catalyst (for the separation) is how tough this year has been in aluminum,” he said
Alcoa announces it’s splitting into two companies
Sept. 28, 2015
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/09/28/Alcoa-splitting-into-2-companies/stories/201509280140
John Tumazos, an independent metals analyst based in Holmdel, N.J., said aluminum prices are about 44 cents a pound lower than they were a year ago. He blames China, which he believes wants to control 60 or 70 percent of the world’s steel and aluminum production. The devaluation of that country’s currency last month was part of its strategy for reaching that objective, he said.Mr. Tumazos called Alcoa’s announcement “a negative outlook statement concerning aluminum.”“The Alcoa guys are basically saying they don’t want the ingot business to kill them, or drag them down,” he said.….Other unanswered questions include how its approximately 2,000 employees in the Pittsburgh region will be affected and the fate of Alcoa’s Technical Center in Upper Burrell. Mr. Tumazos said much of the work coming out of the research center has been focused on Alcoa’s downstream businesses, whose post-split chairman and CEO will be Mr. Kleinfeld.
Global supply could be steel’s Achilles heel
January 2015
American Metal Market
By Michael Cowden
“We’re hoping that domestics recapture
(market) share (in 2015), but it will take
lower prices to do that,” said John C. Tumazos,
owner and senior analyst at Holmdel,
N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
The United States appears to be on pace
to import 44.75 million tons of steel in
2014, or 34.4 percent of apparent steel consumption,
Tumazos said. That won’t break
the record volume of 45.3 million tons in
2006, but because apparent consumption
in 2014 is lower than in 2006 it could set
a new high-water mark when it comes to
imports’ share of the U.S. market, he said.
Domestic mill shipments should see gains
in 2015 as imports fall to 35 million tons,
Tumazos predicted, but the key to North
American mills regaining market share
lost to imports will be competitiveness,
not trade action. “Dumping suits make attorneys
rich, but they hurt steel companies
because they encourage customers to import
offshore assemblies of steel-intensive
items,” he said.
Alcoa to Split as Aluminum Glut Pressures Prices
Aluminum maker joins list of firms seeking to break up to perform better
Sept. 28, 2015
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Miller and Chelsey Dulaney
http://www.wsj.com/articles/alcoa-to-split-into-two-companies-1443437130
Raw aluminum prices are down over 40% since 2011, to around $1,500 a ton. A split allows Alcoa to “prevent the market from assigning a negative value to the ingot business,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC. And with Alcoa due to report earnings on Oct. 8, “the timing is convenient,” he added
U. S. Steel to enable scrap melting by building electric arc furnace
Sept. 16, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8936603-74/steel-furnace-fairfield#axzz3m0NChPQd
But it’s not a panacea for U.S. Steel’s problems, analysts warned.“I don’t think this is the salvation of U.S. Steel,” said John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. “But it’s their best solution for a tough situation.
Ford to use more aluminum alloy in F – 150 pickup truck in deal with Alcoa
Sept. 14, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9091881-74/alcoa-aluminum-ford#axzz3liGok3uf
The deal helps Ford improve the fuel economy of its vehicles by lowering their weight, and it benefits Alcoa by diversifying the company’s sales beyond raw material production to higher-value parts manufacturing. It could put pressure on steel producers, which have traditionally supplied most of the metal for cars and trucks, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.“It’s not a good thing if you’re AK Steel or ArcelorMittal or U.S. Steel,” Tumazos said. “If Alcoa can make the aluminum cheaply, and they lower their price at some point, aluminum will gain more penetration versus steel.”Alcoa first announced the aluminum alloy technology, known as Micromill technology, in December, saying that it was working with an unidentified automotive company on the alloy that was 30 percent lighter and twice as malleable as high-strength steel typically used in vehicles, meaning it could be more easily molded into a particular shape.
What new WTO appeals by foreign steel manufacturers could mean for U. S. Steel
Sept. 14, 2015
Pittsburgh Business Times
By Justine Coyne
http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/blog/innovation/2015/09/what-new-wto-appeals-by-foreign-steel.html
But even if the duties are upheld against countries like South Korea and Turkey, it’s unlikely trade litigation alone can turn around U.S. Steel’s tubular division, according to John Tumazos, president and CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Crude oil and natural gas prices have dropped while at the same time about 4 million tons of new domestic tubular capacity has come online from competitors, he said.”Two to three years ago everybody was optimistic the shale was going to boom, boom, boom…but there was anticipation of a much larger market than what has come to pass,” Tumazos said.Sales in the company’s tubular segment dropped significantly in its most recent quarter with the company recording a net loss of $66 million for the second quarter of 2015. This compares to income of $47 million in the second quarter of 2014.”Shipments continue to be adversely impacted by reduced drilling activity caused by low crude oil prices and the near record levels of tubular imports, much of which we believe are unfairly traded,” the company said in a statement announcing its second quarter performance. “The decrease in results is also attributable to operating inefficiencies as a result of reduced production levels.”
The learning curve has also improved to allow oil companies to get more production from fewer wells, he said.Because the market has shrunk, product differentiation and service is going to be key in securing those orders that remain, according to Tumazos.
In July, U.S. Steel Tubular Products announced the introduction of USS-Liberty TC, a highly engineered connection offering for the energy industry. The connection was successfully installed at a Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) well in West Alexander, Pa., about 45 miles southwest of Pittsburgh near the West Virginia border.”It’s a tough environment, and in the end, U.S. Steel is going to have to lower their own costs,” Tumazos said.
Glencore’s big copper cut
Sept. 9, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keen
http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/glencores-big-copper-cut/
“in the short term.” John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, says the move is: “Huge. It could turn the market, or create a shortage.”
Tumazos estimates. These cuts come at a time when prices have been on the decline for years.
What does Carl Icahn want with Freeport-McMoran?
Aug. 28, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keen
http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/what-does-carl-icahn-want-with-freeport-mcmoran/
But one possibility is a break-up. John Tumazos, over at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, sees it that way.For it’s no secret there was grumbling by some shareholders over the marriage of mining and oil & gas assets back in 2012, with FCX’s takeover of Plains Exploration & Production Company and McMoRan Exploration Co. (Subsequently the company was renamed Freeport- McMoRan.) This has made Freeport one of the most indebted miners in the world – with $20 billion in long-term debt, or twice its recent market capitalization.With this discontent, Tumazos wonders if Icahn might angle for a Freeport break-up, putting the mining and oil and gas units into separate companies. Then the oil and gas assets – considered high cost – might become a compelling target for an oil and gas company, he thinks.Tumazos thinks it might also make sense from a taxes point of view. Talking with me Thursday night, Tumazos notes that Freeport stands to write-down assets by as much as $3 billion in September in large part owing to the decline in oil and gas prices, by his calculation. “There’s a lot of value in the losses in the oil and gas,” Tumazos says.And there’s unhappy shareholders to sway. Tumazos hit Freeport hard saying Icahn speaks for a silent majority of shareholders who want change in the company. Freeport’s office of the Chairman has been “slow moving and wrong-minded,” he said, adding, “investors will cheer decisions that create value and cause Freeport to react quicker.” (Disclosure: Tumazos owns Freeport shares.)Nickel, stainless set for tough 2015
Aug. 25, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
“Not very many nickel mines are very profitable at (these prices) and in most cases there are significant costs in addition to what the miners report as cash costs. Hydromet (processing) plants and various ferronickel plants would be candidates for shutdown,” John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., told AMM, adding that he would be very surprised if the price remained at its current level for long.The stainless market is more complicated, Tumazos said. “Last year, (global) stainless output rose 8 percent; this year it’s up by 0.1 percent in the first quarter. There is the risk that a large portion of stainless in China went to inventory. There are too many stainless mills in China; the world appears to be in overcapacity.”
Base metal tags take beating amid China slowdown fears
Aug. 25, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
Meanwhile, John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said that China’s weakness does not necessarily translate into broader weakness on a global level, but noted that it might have different implications depending on the metal.
“It is not obvious to me that the turmoil in China is necessarily bad for the (United States) and Europe…but there are commodities that China produces for itself, and then there commodities that it doesn’t have much of copper and nickel it might hurt,” he said.U. S. Steel freezes traditional pensions for long-serving nonunion staff
Aug. 24, 2015
TribLive Business
By Tom Fontaine
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8969821-74/company-steel-workers#axzz3jl8tF5gK
“It’s a prudent time to lower costs. No one ever got in trouble lowering costs and reducing debt,” said stock analyst John Tumazos of New Jersey-based Very Independent Research LLC.Tumazos pointed to recent turbulence in the stock market and falling sales in China’s auto market, adding, “It makes sense for U.S. Steel to control any costs that it can control.”
U. S. Steel to shutter Alabama furnace, lay off 1,100
Aug. 17, 2015
TribLive Business
By David Conti and Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8929917-74/furnace-fairfield-operations#axzz3jAZ02fzY
John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research, said oversupply of steel from imports and domestic producers, along with weak demand from customers in the oil and gas industry, drove the decision.“What they really are saying is that in the next 12 to 24 months, they don’t need to restart that blast furnace and they don’t need that mill,” he said.
ATI locks out union workers
Aug. 15, 2015
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/08/15/ATI-locks-out-union-workers/stories/201508150044
Independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos said a provision of the Affordable Care Act that subjects companies to a tax if the premiums on their employee healthcare coverage exceed certain levels is one issue at the bargaining table. The tax had been dubbed the “Cadillac tax” because it was expected to apply only to high-paid employees. But in fact, it is expected to apply to many companies with union workers when it takes effect in 2018.Mr. Tumazos also said Allegheny Technologies must curb costs because it faces competition from cheap imports as well as domestic competitors with non-union work forces. He expects that operating plants with non-union personnel will make the company realize that it doesn’t need as many employees as it currently has.“I expect the company will learn that 10 to 30 percent of its workers are not necessary,” Mr. Tumazos said.
ATI locking out Flat Rolled Products workers
Aug. 14, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8916540-74/union-ati-negotiations#ixzz3ioUVyfwi
John Tumazos, owner of Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said ATI faces substantial competition from steel producers with non-union workforces and lower labor costs.“Allegheny is up against it,” Tumazos said. “It’s actually in the workers’ interest to take the deeper cuts. … It will help the company survive.
ATI offers “final proposal” to steelworkers union
Aug. 7, 2015
TribLive Neighborhoods
By Tom Yerace and Alex Nixon
Union officials have been critical of the companies’ attempts to link short-term financial challenges with the cost of employee benefits.John Tumazos, a stock analyst with Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., was surprised that ATI would take the step of delivering a final offer now, rather than waiting to see what happens with the talks at U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal.The steelworkers contract with ATI expired on June 30. The union agreed to continue working under terms of the previous labor pact.The contracts at U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal will expire on Sept. 1.“(ATI) may benefit from seeing U.S. Steel’s or Arcelor’s hand,” Tumazos said. “I just wish they took their time and let the other negotiations evolve.”The contracts cover about 17,000 workers at U.S. Steel, 13,000 at ArcelorMittal and about 2,200 at ATI.All three companies have reported worsening financial losses in the second quarter, driven by weak demand from oil and gas producers, low steel prices and high imports.
http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourallekiskivalley/yourallekiskivalleymore/8878194-74/ati-proposal-union#axzz3iFfzdqn6
Trade cases not Rx for stainless’ woes: analysts
August 5, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
“Rigorous trade law enforcement injures the steel companies and injures their customers,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.- based Very Independent Research LLC told AMM. “It (filing trade cases is often counterproductive, costs attorney fees and managers spend a lot of time on it when they could be focusing on running their companies. It’s just a large distraction.”
Rather than filing a trade case, domestic producers should look to lower their cost of production to compete with foreign product, he advised.
Steel is an intermediate capital good; if the cost of production and price is cheaper overseas, the customer can still import the final product made from stainless steel, Tumazos argued. “Trade cases work best for end products and not intermediate goods,” he said.
A second analyst agreed with Tumazos that a trade case might not be the way to go.
The company is likely losing money due to inefficiencies at Calvert, which was built to run al high capacity, Tumazos said.
Grace Lavigne retweeted John C. Tumazos
August 4, 2015
Tweeter
By Grace Lavigne
14 public miners that are majority of world copper mines had 1.8% more output in June half that one yr ago. Output is slowing
John C. Tumazos @JohnTumazos
Marketers Use Metal to Talk Tough
July 29, 2015
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Miller
That raised the eyebrows of at least one metallurgist. “The reason those hulls are so strong is that they’re coated with titanium,” says John Tumazos, a longtime investor in metals companies.
http://on.wsj.com/1Ir0HVYU. S. Steel CEO expects rebound
July 29, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
John Tumazos, of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel to achieve long-term savings through renegotiating benefits for union-represented employees. The company is in talks with the United Steelworkers union, which represents about 17,000 U.S. Steel employees, on a contract to replace a three-year agreement that expires Sept. 1.“From their projections, the company must be very optimistic in their negotiating for a new contract and the changes they’re going to make in benefits,” Tumazos said.Read more: http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8818425-74/steel-company-million#ixzz3hOjXcTtzFreeport “aggressively” looking to cut mining costs
July 29, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
Miners will likely first look to cut costs by high grading production or laying off personnel before lowering output, according to John Tumazos, chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
“It is imperative for Freeport to reduce debt and avoid increasing debt so that they are still able to run their company,” he said.
“They may get the most bang for their buck if they cut or postpone (capital expenditures) as opposed to a change in production.”
Allegheny Technologies posts second-quarter loss
July 21, 2015
Post-Gazette’s
By Len Boselovic / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
U.S. Steel and other steel producers could use the rolling mill to produce products they cannot make on their existing mills. Mr. Harshman said he hopes to find a partner by the end of the year.Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst John Tumazos said depressed conditions throughout the industry may complicate the search for a partner.“There aren’t too many steel companies that can rub nickels together,” Mr. Tumazos said.He was at a loss to explain the stock’s slide. Allegheny Technologies shares closed Wednesday at $21.67, down $3.40, in heavy trading.Mr. Tumazos said poor industry conditions, an unclear outlook, troubled labor relations and the weak U.S. manufacturing economy may have made investors react the way they did.“It’s kind of hard to figure out what spooks people,”
http://www.post-gazette.com/business/2015/07/21/Allegheny-Technologies-posts-second-quarter-loss-pittsburgh.html
Allegheny Technologies’ CEO ties 2Q losses to benefits, working conditions
July 21, 2015
TribLive Business
By Alex Nixon
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8775092-74/quarter-million-cents#axzz3gk8Iyjvy
John Tumazos, an analyst with Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said investor sentiment turned negative because there was nothing hopeful in Harshman’s comments to gauge when conditions may improve at ATI.Steel prices are still falling, imports from China continue unabated, contract negotiations with the steelworkers union haven’t wrapped up and financial losses are increasing, Tumazos said.“They didn’t predict any improvement,” he said. “They didn’t say anything other than business is difficult.”LME warehouse reforms not driving premiums.
July 17, 2015
American Metal Market
By Kirk Maltas
Meanwhile, “the rise in the Midwest premium to several times historical levels is similar to an anaconda eating a baby elephant. It’s just passing through,” said John Tumazos, chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC.
Tumazos attributed the 2015 collapse of the Midwest premium to Chinese aluminum oversupply rather than LME reforms.
ATI bracing for 2d-qtr. loss on soft stainless mart.
July 16, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla Bridglal
“In their earnings call in late April, their guidance had been that (the fourth quarter) will be more than (the third quarter) will be more that (the first quarter). So they deteriorated by at least $25 million (in) net income rather than improving. “John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
“I don’t think that specific piece of machinery was the first issue; I think that 100,000 tons of imports and $5 (per pound) nickel hurt their stainless division much more, “Tumazos said.
“It’s possible that ATI gets to a certain point in the negotiation where either the management caves in, the workers cave in or (no one caves in) and ATI just locks (workers) out,” Tumazos said.ArcelorMittal has ‘no intention’ of cutting BF capacity
July 16, 2015
American Metal Market
By Michael Cowden
The threat of a shutdown alone could be used to drive a harder bargain not only with the union but also with raw material suppliers, according to John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
“We estimate a feigned shutdown could generate a $50- to $100-per-ton reduction in steelmaking costs based on potential concessions in the labor contract, the iron ore contract and coal procurement without counting electricity, refractories and other smaller suppliers,” Tumazos said.
And those savings might be spread not only across Indiana Harbor but “over the entire system,” he said.Ford’s planned move seen bad sign for small suppliers
July 16, 2015
American Metal Market
By Emilia David
“There are no mills yet in Mexico that can make auto-grade steel, so it could very well be supplied by American steel companies,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. What would be more worrisome for steelmakers is if Ford changes the metal mix of its small cars, he added.
Copper is a victim of (market) forces, not fundamentals
July 10, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
“Fundamental demand has been down, and some expect that it’s going to be down a lot more because of China and Europe” according to John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
Restructuring costs weigh down Alcoa 2Q profit
July 8, 2015
Trib Live Business
By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/8702504-74/quarter-alcoa-percent#axzz3fOkombLP
John Tumazos, of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said recent aluminum price declines hurt Alcoa’s results more than expected.“Given how much the aluminum price fell, they did well not to lose money,” he said.And the falling prices are likely to weigh heavily on earnings the rest of this year, he said. “There’s a good chance they won’t make a profit in the third and fourth quarter.”Steel’s sights on summer contract talks
June 25, 2015
American Metal Market
By Carla BridglalThe negotiations with autoworkers will be very different than those with steelworkers, according to John Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. “The auto industry has been profitable, with sales at a near record and continuing to improve. Expectations from workers are probably much higher in the auto sector,” he (Tumazos) said.U.S. Steel, on the other hand, has been temporarily idling some of its plants and running at low operating rates, Tumazos said. “U.S. Steel has a tough battle in the market. The company is probably wishing for substantial labor cost reductions. It’s not making lots of money and might already be performing as badly as if it were on strike.””ATI has its own unique circumstances,” Tumazos said, noting that the company has to share the market with non-unionized competitors. “ATI has a particularly aggressive union that takes full credit for (the company’s) new $1.2-billion rolling mill. It is possibly that ATI is fully prepared to operate with salaried or replacement workers”
ATI has forgotten teamwork
June 17, 2015
Trib Live Opinion/The Review
Letter to the Editorhttp://triblive.com/opinion/letters/8575745-74/ati-company-teamwork#axzz3dVndaJ92
The article also quoted stock analyst John Tumazos saying ATI workers “should send a ‘thank you’ note every day to the company.” He’s probably shorting ATI stock to pad his portfolio.
ATI braces for failure of labor talks, USW says
June 16, 2015
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/06/16/ATI-braces-for-failure-of-labor-talks-USW-says/stories/201506160057
Metals industry analyst John Tumazos said the company needs concessions if it is to compete with imports as well as at least three U.S. mills that make similar products with modern equipment. None of those U.S. mills has retiree benefit obligations, past environmental issues or unions, Mr. Tumazos said.He said what little money Allegheny has made in recent years was generated by its titanium and alloyed business. The Brackenridge workers and others covered by the contract work for the company’s flat-rolled unit, which has not done well because of slumping demand and competition, he said.“Management is going to take a very hard line because they’re not making money,” Mr. Tumazos said.
Handbills posted on website not optimistic about ATI talks
June 14, 2015
Trib Live Neighborhoods
By Tom Yeracehttp://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourallekiskivalley/yourallekiskivalleymore/8560489-74/ati-company-strike#axzz3d2qgZycY
Stock analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey follows ATI. He downplayed any negative effect a work stoppage might have on ATI.“I think the company is strong enough to survive a strike, but they want to make steel and not have a strike,” he said.Tumazos said over the past few years ATI has made “peanuts.” The money it did make was due to its high-end specialty alloys, which use metals such as titanium and zirconium, while the flat-rolled products made little or lost money.He said if there is a prolonged strike, it could lead to “activist shareholders” buying up controlling interests in the company and then breaking it apart.“The flat-rolled division might be worth more ‘cold,’ idled — without the workers,” Tumazos said. “I think the workers should write a ‘thank-you’ every day to the company.”Defective shear crimps ATI’s new rolling mill
May 29, 2015
American Metal Market
By Thorsten Schier”A steel mill is a linearly sequential production process, just like an auto assembly line or many types of factories. If a 39-cent washer causes you to lose four months, it’s a big deal” said John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.He (Tumazos) added that as a shareholder of the company he was “very frustrated” with the failure so soon after start-up of a piece of equipment typically expected to run for decades. “We’re not supposed to be hearing about this in May 2015,” although the defect was “the suppliers fault, not Allegheny’s”
Copper M&A values seen continuing to fall
Date April 20, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
“We expect declining transaction values as long as capital markets are hostile to commodities, copper companies run short of cash and non-copper commodities further drain treasuries with losses from iron ore, coal, oil, nickel or other products,” John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said in a research report.”The deeper prices fall below $3 per pound, the more shutdown mines or excess borrowings or capital expenditure budgets will force asset mine sales,” Tumazos said. “Small copper mines shut down have no resale value at the moment.””The slower rates of economic growth in China, declines in construction in China, leveling off of Chinese steel output, declines in other commodities and evidences of recession in Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, parts of Europe, parts of the Mideast or other pockets have given rise to renewed bear copper market expectations,” Tumazos said.”The peak period to sell copper mines has passed,” Tumazos said.
Copper seen rising, but timing, degree unclear
Date: March 31, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavignehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3441455/Copper-seen-rising-but-timing-degree-unclear.html
Copper price governs Thompson Creek upgrade
Date: March 31, 2015
By Grace Lavigne
http://www.amm.com/Article/3441421/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creek-upgrade-pivots-on-copper-prices.html?ArticleId=3441421
http://www.europeangoldcentre.com/
Date: April 1, 2015I can assure you that despite my quite critical look at the markets and in doing my research to find the companies that stand out from the crowd, I get a lot of confirmation in my belief that the markets deserve to be approached with a willing and entrepreneurial attitude. Just at the beginning of this week, I found enough ground to confirm my confidence when I had a long session behind my computer, following the webcast of the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference in New York, where a large number of mining and exploration companies were presenting their projects, accomplishments and progress to a highly qualified audience. Listening to the company executives unfolding the scenarios of their projects acknowledged my vision: there is a whole next generation of gold and silver producers in the making. Not in promises and wishful thinking, but based on facts and figures resulting from extensive exploration programs with on top of that, highly qualified expertise to channel their projects through the challenging and capital-intensive phases of development towards production decisions and actual production over the next few years
Allstar Analysts
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/topguns97.htm
Ashton Bay to Present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference
Press Release Date: March 27, 2015
Vancouver, British Columbia – March 27, 2015 – Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX-V: BAY) (“Aston Bay” or the “Company”), a junior exploration company advancing development of the Storm Copper Project (the “Project”), announced today that it will be presenting at the Metals and Natural Resources Conference being hosted by John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC at the Westin Grand Central Hotel in New York, on Monday, March 30, 2015. Benjamin Cox, Chief Executive Officer of Aston Bay, will present at 8:00 AM EST. To access the live webcast or a replay of Mr. Cox’s presentation, please use the link below:http://www.wsw.com/admin/~log/?conference=vir14&page=&key=ctqhcnvfjThe related presentation will be available as part of the webcast or can be found on the Company’s website at:http://astonbayholdings.com/116-2/investors/presentations/Pershing Gold to Present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Natural Resource Conference
Press Release Date: March 27, 2015
Link: http://ir.stockpr.com/pershinggold/press-releases/detail/774/pershing-gold-to-present-at-john-tumazos-very-independent-research-llc-metals-and-natural-resource-conference
Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference on March 30th
Release Date: March 25, 2015
Link to Full Release: http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=131
Teranga Gold to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference
Press Release Date: March 24, 2015
Link: http://www.terangagold.com/English/investors/news/newsreleasedetails/2015/Teranga-Gold-to-Present-at-The-John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-Metals–Natural-Resources-Conference-on-March-30-2015/default.aspx
Western Copper and Gold to Attend The John Tumazos Conference and a Series of Florida Events
Release Date: March 23, 2015
Western Copper and Gold will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference on March 30th, 2015.
Dr. Paul West-Sells will present at 9:10 am (ET) in the Natural Resources Track at the conference, which will take place in New York. Interested parties are invited to register and listen to the live webcast by visiting www.veryindependentresearch.net and clicking the “conferences” tab or Click Here. No security or password is required.
Acquisition makes Alcoa a bigger player in aerospace industry
March 9, 2015
Pittsburgh Post Gazette
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2015/03/09/Alcoa-to-buy-RTI-for-1-26-billion-to-expand-aerospace-unit/stories/201503090119
“Alcoa will leverage these technologies more broadly and will have them immediately without having to work around patent and know-how issues,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst.He (Tumazos) said linking up with Alcoa makes sense for RTI, whose major competitors, including Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Technologies, are much larger.Mr. Tumazos said Allegheny Technologies would have made a more attractive acquisition for Alcoa because it has a larger titanium business, broader capabilities in more businesses, and extra capacity for processing metals at its new plant in Brackenridge.If RTI terminates the merger agreement because it finds a more attractive offer, it would have to pay Alcoa a $50 million breakup fee, according to an RTI securities filing. Mr. Tumazos said a higher offer is unlikely because “the Alcoa offer is pretty generous.”
Alcoa may close or sell some aluminum plants to cut costs
March 6, 2015
Trib Live Business
By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7914995-74/aluminum-alcoa-capacity#axzz3TY8aLh69“I was surprised at the magnitude” of the potential capacity cuts, said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.
Barrick rides the DeLorean
February 23, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/barrick-rides-the-delorean/One analyst, John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, while highly supportive of the debt pay-down plan, noted Barrick, like other miners, was selling known quantities yet keeping projects proven to be “a treasure trove of cost overruns”. He argued the miner should focus on bringing capital expenditures down to half of depreciation (they’re about equal now) through more cuts, particularly by taking the scalpel to typically cozy relationships with contractors. As Tumazos put it, “I think they should sell their problems and not the mines that work”.
Tahoe to buy Rio Alto in C$1.4 bn deal
February 10, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/tahoe-buy-rio-alto-c1-4bn-deal/
In a short question and answer session, the main questions from analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Rsearch centered on the rationale for the 65-35 structure of the Tahoe-Rio Alto tie up.“How did you grow comfortable (with that)?” Tumazos asked McArthur, noting Rio Alto’s mine life on the operating La Arena oxide gold mine is substantially less than Tahoe’s Escobal mine life.
Sale of Vale’s nickel business unlikely
February 6, 2015
Global Monitor News
By Stephen KurczyVale is not going to sell when the price of nickel is at the low end of its range. Vale is going to sell when the price is surging like it was early last year.”But with the price of nickel currently at about $15,000 per metric ton – 25 percent below
Vale’s minimum target range – it’s unlikely that any serious offers will come for Vale’s entire base
metals division, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research. He sees it more
likely that Vale might sell an undeveloped mine, such as the Vermelho nickel project in northeastern
Brazil, which has been put on hold.”It is possible that Mick Davis negotiates to buy a particular mine or undeveloped project that Vale does
not want to develop, like the Vermelho project,” says Mr. Tumazos. As to the IPO of the base metals
division, he adds, “Vale is not going to sell when the price of nickel is at the low end of its range. Vale is
going to sell when the price is surging, like it was early last year.”
U.S. Steel maps out greater efficiency for 2015
January 28, 2015
Trib Live Business
By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7649794-74/steel-company-prices#axzz3Py7ATlBM
U.S. Steel maintained strong prices for flat-rolled and tubular products in the October-December quarter, which boosted profits, the company said Tuesday. But that isn’t expected to last as contracts to supply steel at higher prices expire, said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.“The fourth-quarter prices were all better than expected because prices were negotiated earlier in the year,” Tumazos said. “The March (first-quarter) or June (second-quarter) results will probably be significantly less.”
Despite these challenges, U.S. Steel is in a much better place financially than it was a year ago, Tumazos said. “Had a number of the tough decisions not been made that have been made, U.S. Steel would be doing half a billion to a billion dollars worse, which probably would not be sustainable.”

Low steel tags hurting integrated mills
January 21, 2015
American Metal Market
By Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3419661/Search/Results/Low-steel-prices-pushing-US-integrated-mills-under-water.html?ArticleId=3419661Whatever the means of production, North American steelmakers potentially looking to boost prices do so at their own risk, according to John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, who blamed a surge in steel imports in recent months on “excessively high” domestic steel prices in 2014.”The domestic mills have to adjust to world market conditions,” Tumazos said. “No economic textbook says that the appropriate policy for a strong currency is to raise prices as overseas prices fall to force your prices further out of line with world levels.”The iron ore and metallurgical coal to make a tonne of pig iron cost less than $200 per tonne, Tumazos estimated, which suggests that world market prices for hot band should be between $500 and $550 per tonne, or $455 to $500 per short ton ($22.75 to $25 per cwt) assuming conversion costs of $300 per ton ($15 per cwt).”Domestic scrap steel and finished steel quotes are too high,” Tumazos said.
Highest cost mine among top 50 very large sites worldwide reported $0.5 bil profits
January 15, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavignehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3417889/Home/Copper-price-slide-may-idle-mines-halt-projects.html
Inglorious writedowns: Gold sector’s bad bets wiping out lifetime earnings-and investor confidence
January 14, 2015
Financial Post
By Peter Kovenhttp://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/inglorious-writedowns-gold-sectors-bad-bets-wiping-out-lifetime-earnings-and-investor-confidence/“It matters when you write off more than you ever earned,” said John Tumazos, an independent analyst. “The message is these particular companies were reckless and irresponsible with their shareholders’ capital.”“In the U.S., it sticks out like a sore thumb [to investors] when a historic company has no retained earnings,” Mr. Tumazos said. He added that generalist investors in Canada may be more tolerant of these gold miners because mining is such a huge portion of the Canadian stock market.
“Copper Prices Slide; Surplus Estimates Called Overblown”
January 14, 2015
American Metal Market
By Grace Lavigne
But some analysts say these numbers have been inflated. “There is a false perception of rising world copper mine output,” according John C. Tumazos owner and senior analyst at Very Independent Research, LLC in Holmdel, NJ. Last year started off “like gangbusters for mine production, and then collapsed in the second half of the year….there’s no real surplus.”

Yesterday’s top story: Top 100 mining companies — but not so ugly below (Part 2)
January 11, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keenwww.mineweb.com/top-100-mining-companies-not-ugly-part-2/
In other ways, 2014 was also notable for declining output of non-ferrous metals, which could prove bullish. Analyst John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, thinks so and points out that it’s widely under appreciated non-ferrous mine production was way down in 2014.He rattles off a list: zinc production down 7%, lead down 18%, bauxite down 21%, nickel down 27%, platinum down about 25%, and copper about even. These production declines were one of the most significant stories of 2014, Tumazos reckons, not the the crashing iron ore price. Combine this with other supply issues, and Tumazos concludes there are “many bullish developments in the non-ferrous metals.”
Top 1oo mining companies: Ugly at the top (Part 1)
January 9, 2015
Mineweb
By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/top-100-mining-companies-ugly-top-pt-1/Some analysts and mining management lambaste the diversifieds for angling to maintain market share through mine expansion. Ivan Glasenberg – chief executive of Glencore – has cut into BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto for their strategy to grow amid an iron ore glut as being ill conceived and bad for business. Likewise, analyst John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, derides the business strategy.“The iron ore companies are uniquely delusional,” Tumazos says. He points to clear signs that Chinese steel demand, which dominates iron ore use, is set to be lacklustre relative to supply growth for years to come. But “the guys that own 400 tonne trucks just don’t want to admit it”.
Alcoa, Israeli company collaborate on aluminum-air battery
January 10, 2015
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7431480-74/battery-aluminum-alcoa#axzz3OYg54Qo0
John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said selling aluminum for the battery “could be a big number for them” if Phinergy’s technology proves commercially successful.

If the aluminum-air battery becomes the success Kilmer described, two smelters’ worth of aluminum, it could mean production of 400,000 metric tons a year, Tumazos said.

“It would be one of their five largest customers if it grew to two smelters of 200,000 tons each. That would be over 10 percent of their smelter output and 8 percent of their shipments, but Phinergy has to be commercially successful. That volume would rank in the same league as InBev, Coke, Pepsi, Ford, GM and Boeing and other large customers.”

U.S. Steel to idle two oil, gas pipe plants, laying off 756
January 6, 2015
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7508038-74/steel-oil-plant#axzz3O8zJMemC
But John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., Tumazos said the market for oil and gas pipe in 2015 may be only half of what it was in 2013 and 2014 if oil stays near $50.

Besides the effect of lower oil prices on orders, more pipe manufacturing capacity is coming online. That includes the Vallourec Star tubing plant in Youngstown, Ohio; Borusan Mannesmann, a Turkish steel pipe manufacturer, building its first U.S. plant in Baytown, Texas; and Tenaris SA of Luxembourg, building its first U.S. seamless plant in Bay City, Texas, which will have capacity of 600,000 tons a year.

U.S. Steel is still operating tubular plants in Texas and Fairfield, Ala.

“These brand new mills are going to take market share from older producers,” Tumazos said. “And then there’s the question of imported steel.”

Alcoa buying jet engine components maker Tital to help expand aerospace unit
December 15, 2014
Trib Live Business
By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7384080-74/alcoa-aluminum-tital#axzz3LzADRl9aJohn Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said, “It’s nice that Alcoa bought Tital, but it’s probably not going to be the thing that moves the needle.”
Automotive and aerospace markets may have more attractive profit margins now, Tumazos said, but aircraft makers and car companies have histories of squeezing suppliers when times get tough.

“Aerospace does not guarantee profits,” he said.

Tumazos predicts demand for aluminum will start to grow next year, which will boost aluminum prices and Alcoa’s profits.

“We think the world aluminum business is getting better, so we don’t think they necessarily need to get away from it,” he said.

Vale eyes possible return of ‘Inco’ to Canadian market as it mulls IPO for part of base metals unit
December 2, 2014
Financial Post
By Peter Kovenhttp://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/02/brazils-vale-mulls-toronto-and-london-listings-for-some-base-metals-units-sources-say/
“I think it’s eminently logical for Vale to spin back Inco, and for Rio Tinto to spin back Alcan,” independent analyst John Tumazos said in an interview.“The iron ore business has grown so much over the past decade, both in volume and price, that it dominates those companies.”
Plunging iron ore price exposes ailing Chinese growth
November 19, 2014
Mineweb
By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/plunging-iron-ore-price-exposes-ailing-chinese-growth/
John Tumazos, of Very Independent Research, expects Chinese steel output (which requires iron ore as input) to decline 10% next year, equally due to falling demand, exports and inventory cuts, and predicts a sea-change in longer-term Chinese growth.“The Chinese economy is changing and the iron ore miners don’t want to stop buying 400-tonne trucks,” Tumazos said in an interview on Wednesday.Tumazos said China, where the economy is rebalancing after furious growth over the past decade, faces numerous issues that will challenge growth in the coming years and decades. Among other issues, he highlights China’s demographic challenge – a declining workforce; anti-dumping opposition it may face as its steel exports rise; and a GDP that will, in his view, take a hefty knock once the country starts importing vast amounts of expensive Russian natural gas in a few years, as invisioned by a recent Russia-China agreement.The deal will be a “huge detriment to GDP,” he says.
U.S. Steel reports 3Q loss of $207 M on special charges
October 28, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7045925-74/steel-million-share#axzz3HSv8slhA“They sure had a nice quarter in flat-rolled,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J. “Historically, there have been good economic cycles where the profit in flat-rolled was not $94 a ton. So this is a very good performance.” The unit makes sheet for autos and appliances.
Sale Seen a Good Move, Raises Some Questions; Aleris Targeting Core Expansion:
October 21, 2014
American Metal Market

Aleris Corp.’s sale of its global recycling and specification alloys business….appears to be a consequence of Aleris deciding to reduce debt, according to John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research, LLC.The division being sold would have great value to Alcoa, Novelis, Constellium or Kaiser Aluminum “as their livelihood involves sourcing quality metal units at the most competitive cost,” John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research, LLC, said.Tumazos called on Bouchard to describe Signature’s strategy to increase the value of the aluminum business it has agreed to acquire. “I am sure he has a combination of (1) expanding and growing the business perhaps buying some other nonferrous recyclers, (2) may want to ride a future aluminum upcycle as aluminum demand grows, but few primary smelters are proposed outside China and (3) may choose either (an) IPO or sell out to Alcoa, Novelis, Constellium, etc. in the future when both aluminum markets and the stock market (are) simultaneously favorable,” he said.
Cliffs Plans to Write Down $6 Billion in Assets
October 17, 2014
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/cliffs-plans-to-write-down-6-billion-in-assets-1413542547In 2011, Cliffs “over-paid and over-invested based on high iron ore price,” said John Tumazos, an investor and analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “The write-off is not a business decision, it’s simply acknowledging what is the status quo.”
U.S. Steel shares jump on turnaround strategy
September 18, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6812511-74/steel-company-million#axzz3DfVuwgk4“They don’t seem to want to tolerate anything that is losing money. It turns out that Canada was losing quite a bit, $25 million a month,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.“They are saying small is beautiful,” Tumazos said. “They are scrutinizing everything,” and other plants they might sell include U.S. Steel Europe, now consisting only of a plant in Kosice, Slovakia, which must purchase its raw materials at more expensive prices. “Having gotten rid of Serbia and Canada, the headquarters has to become smaller because there isn’t as much to manage. And they have been doing that,” said Tumazos. “But they might pause for a while. I don’t think they will be killing a major plant every quarter or two.”
Alcoa shifts retirees to private health insurance exchanges
September 8, 2014
Trib Live Business
By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6758936-74/health-alcoa-private#axzz3CoaihRiEAlcoa, which is based in New York but has an operations center in Pittsburgh, may have been able to provide rich employee benefits in the past, but it is facing serious competitive pressure today, said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.There is an oversupply of aluminum caused by increasing Chinese production, which has depressed the metal’s price, he said. Alcoa has responded by closing smelters across the nation and trimming expenses.“They’re not the pre-eminent company they once were,” he said. “They haven’t taken the controls off of cost. They’re still attacking any and every cost.”
U.S. Steel’s 2Q loss beats analysts’ estimates
July 29, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6524660-74/million-loss-cents#axzz38tnZnyxQ“The loss of 12 cents was a great achievement in view of the mishap at the Great Lakes (plant in Ecorse, Mich.) and the iron ore delivery delays due to Lake Superior’s prolonged ice blocks,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.
Steel said still on top despite Toyota shift
July 17, 2014
American Metal Market, Volume 122, Number 29-4
By Thorsten Schier”In a way it’s a bigger victory for aluminum to access Toyota because Toyota is a leader in fuel economy by hybrid and Toyota separately is a leader in gains in fuel economy by engineering and conventional technologies,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM, adding that there are “enormous opportunities (for lightweighting) in mainstream midsize cars, not just the bigger trucks, Corvettes and Cadillacs.””It’s early days in the research and each model year the optimization will change as the price of aluminum, steel and other material changes,” Tumazos said.
Commerce imposes higher penalties on S. Korean drilling pipe; impact questioned
July 11, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6430406-74/steel-percent-industry#axzz37H0zAoIhJohn Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the decision likely won’t change South Korea’s behavior.“I don’t think that’s a big deal because some of these products sell for $1,500 a ton and have large profit margins. A $150-per-ton duty clips them but there’s still significant profit,” Tumazos said. “I don’t expect a 10-15 percent duty to change their behavior; it could actually embolden them because it’s so small.”“Dumping duties of at least 30 percent would be needed to chase them away, and 50 percent would be better,” Tumazos said.
Foresight Energy Bets That There’s Gold in Coal
Illinois Miner Raises $350 Million in IPO Despite Industry’s Threats From Regulators, Natural Gas
June 17, 2014
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/foresight-energy-bets-that-theres-gold-in-coal-1403042566?KEYWORDS=TumazosJohn Tumazos, a New Jersey investor in mining and metals stocks, says he hasn’t studied the Foresight prospectus but probably wouldn’t invest in coal right now. “I’d be concerned the thermal business is in secular decline because of carbon regulations,” he said.
U.S. Steel to idle two tubular plants, affecting 260
June 2, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6214872-74/steel-tubular-plants#axzz33WTjTfurThe shutdowns are the result of several factors, according to John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.“This is a combination of less-than-expected domestic demand, lower gas prices, domestic competition from newly built mills and then foreign competition.”Drilling activity has declined, he said, because drillers are getting more output from each well drilled, and lower prices.
U.S. Steel issues may boost near-term prices: analysts
April 15, 2014
American Metal Market Daily
By Michael Cowden”These twin interuptions at Great Lakes and Gary are unique and unprecedented,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM April 14, noting that both facilities serve similar geographic and end-use markets. This presents opportunities, but not to steel producers in the “penalty box” because of production problems, he said.”You certainly don’t want to be the one who is raising prices most if you’re also the one who can’t deliver steel,: Tumazos said. “People have long memories.”
U.S. Steel say cost savings rise to $290 M
April 30, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6034710-74/steel-million-quarter#axzz30SnjogV6Analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., estimated the company will lose 700,000 tons of finished steel because of shutdowns, about 15 to 18 percent of normal volume. The impact on profit could be $1 to $2 per share, Tumazos said.“There is an issue of how well they control the damage,” he said, in terms of business lost to competitors, discounts required to retain or recapture business, and whether impatient customers place import orders to keep plants running. Tumazos said.
Who will rule Malartic after Yamana-Agnico-Osisko deal?
April 17, 2014
Mineweb
By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=237909&sn=DetailA note by analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazo’s Very Independent Research proclaimed in all caps: “ACQUISITION PROPOSAL POORLY UNDERSTOOD AND POORLY ACCEPTED.”“AEM’S proposal to buy ½ of Osisko in partnership with Yamana Gold caused a $457 million or 8.56% or $2.61/share meltdown in AEM’s market value, which we do not blame on the US$475 MM in new net debt-equivalents from Osisko or 33 million new AEM shares,” said Tumazos.“We believe there were ‘inefficiencies’ inherent in the complicated four-term offer AEM and AUY made for Osisko, where the market penalized AEM and AUY and rewarded GG today,” he suggested. “We suspect the 4-way negotiations were very tedious.”“In our opinion, Goldcorp’s C$7.65 bid made April 10th for Osisko in worth more than the C$8.15 April 16th bid made by AUY and AEM for Osisko,” Tumazos advised.“It could prove cheaper for Goldcorp to buy AEM after AEM share price declines than to have bought Osisko from the outset,” he observed. “We hope for AEM’s sake that Goldcorp outbids AUY and AEM, and AEM does not labor under the complex structures. We assume these complex structures were the suggestions of either Osisko or AEM’s advisors seeking fees.”
DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
March 31, 2014http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MS33F20140331
DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
March 28, 2014http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MP2SE20140328
Rusal derails London Metal Exchange plan to cut warehouse queues
March 27, 2014
Reuters
By Eric Onstad and Veronica Brownhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-metals-warehouse-idUSBREA2Q19R20140327Shares in Alcoa Inc (AA.N), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, jumped 5.3 percent to $12.50 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. “There could be a perception that the premiums… could be larger as a result,” said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.

U.S. Steel curtails operations
April 3, 2014
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/04/04/ussteel0404/stories/201404030300The Gary plant is capable of producing 7.5 million tons of steel annually, while the Great Lakes mill can produce 3.8 million tons. Both mills serve primarily the auto industry, according to John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. He said that, depending on how long the outages last, they could create problems for motor vehicle producers.

U.S. Steel shuffles execs; shutdowns could cost millions, analysts say
April 4, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5883844-74/steel-customers-cost#axzz2xrbUoXx4John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said Turk’s appointment to head the Carnegie Way “implies an effort to be more customer centric. Caterpillar is both a large manufacturer and a customer, and bringing someone in from a customer means there are profit and cost-reduction opportunities in the way U.S. Steel works with customers. The guy from CAT will take a broader view of things.”“It’s like dropping a bomb on customers when you have plant outages,” Tumazos said. “It’s a very bad break for U.S. Steel. Each location could cost millions a day, and the impact at Gary would probably be two-and-a-half times Great Lakes because of the relative size of the plants.”Tumazos estimated the financial impact of the shutdowns at $1 a share or more in the second quarter. For 2013, U.S. Steel reported a net loss of $1.67 billion, or $11.56 per share.
‘Very Independent’ Tumazos highlights Largo, Rare Element Resources and Texas Rare Earth
April 2, 2014
Investor Intel
By Tracy Wesloskyhttp://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/independent-tumazos-highlights-largo-rare-element-resources-texas-rare-earth/
Mega Precious Metals Webcast Presentation is Available From the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining ConferenceNEW YORK, NEW YORK–(Marketwired – April 1, 2014) – Mega Precious Metals’ (TSX:MGP) webcast from the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference is available on the link below and on its website www.megapmi.com. Glen Kuntz, President & CEO, presented to a group of institutional investors this morning.WEBCAST LINK
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/mgp.v/Mega Precious Metals Inc. is a leading Canadian-based exploration company with a high quality pipeline of projects located in the mining friendly jurisdictions of Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario and Nunavut. The Company’s significant portfolio includes the flagship Monument Bay Gold Tungsten Project in NE Manitoba as well as the N. Madsen Gold Project in the prolific gold mining district of Red Lake, Ontario. Mega has established a record of delivering rapid growth through their focused and low cost approach to exploration and resource development. The Company’s common shares trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol MGP.For further information and presentation material, please review the Mega website at www.megapmi.com.CONTACT INFORMATION:
Mega Precious Metals Inc.
Glen Kuntz, P.Geo.
President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
O: 807-766-3380
TF: 877-592-3380
info@megapmi.com
X2 Resources Raises Up to $3.75 Billion
Former Xstrata CEO Mick Davis to Finance Midsize Metals, Mining Group
March 31, 2014
The Wall Street Journal
By John W. Miller, Alistair MacDonald, and Alex MacDonaldhttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304157204579472872228153100?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mg=reno64-wsj“Mick is likely going to pursue a low-risk strategy,” adds John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investor and analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.

Virginia Mines Corporate Presentation Monday March 31, 2014Virginia Mines will be presenting at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference a corporate presentation on Monday March 31, 2014 at 2:15 p.m.(EDT)The conference will be held at The Westin Grand Central Hotel, 212 East 42nd Street, New York.A webcast will be launched. Click here to access the Webcast.For more information please contact:
Stéphanie Boivin at info@minesvirginia.com

Orient Paper to Attend John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York
March 24, 2014http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=66600592&topic=ONP&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=101168BAODING, China, March 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKD: ONP) (“Orient Paper” or the “Company”), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, today announced that Mr. Winston Yen, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference, to be held on March 31, 2014 in New York, NY. Details for the conference are as follows:John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference
Date: Monday March 31, 2014
Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
Organizers: John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
Webcast Link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13Investors who wish to meet Mr. Yen may contact the Company’s investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference, please contact John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

Orvana Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research ConferencePresentation Information: Michael Winship, Interim President and CEO will be presenting at 4:00 pm ET on Monday, March 31, 2014Register to View Presentation: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/

Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference on March 31st
March 26, 2014http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=94SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, March 26, 2014 (MARKETWIRED) – Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Chairman of the Board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference on Monday, March 31st at 5:10 p.m. Eastern in NYC. The Conference will be available via webcast.John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Details:
Date: Monday March 31, 2014
Presenting Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
Tract: Natural Resources
For more information please visit:
http://veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_31,_2014.htmWebcasting Link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13

Apollo cutting Noranda stake to 34 percent
March 12, 2014
American Metals Market
By Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3318405/Nonferrous/Apollo-cutting-Noranda-stake-to-34-percent.html

Apollo probably hadn’t planned to own Noranda for as long as it has, independent analyst John Tumazos said, noting that private equity firms generally prefer to sell more quickly. But that’s llikely not an option in the current market.”So then the public market is the only exit mechanism. You want to think of this like you’re trying to get rid of a bad girlfriend,” Tumazos said.Apollo bought Noranda at the top of the aluminum market in 2007, a year before the “bottom fell out,” he said. “This is a (timing error) of epic proportions, where Apollo bought within weeks of a multidecade high in aluminum prices.”Xstrata Plc sold Noranda Aluminum Inc. to Apollo for $1.15 billion in 2007 (amm.com April 11, 2007).
“It’s an extraordinary achievement that Noranda has survived all of the tough events since Apollo bought in because there has been no good luck in this business since then.”
Gold industry must rebuild credibility and refine focus – Tumazos
March 7, 2014
Mineweb
By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=231968&sn=DetailMining analyst John Tumazos urges the CEOs of major gold companies “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”Recently at PDAC, mining analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research noted he received “an earful from in-my-face managers offended that I did not appreciate the wonderful mines or development projects they had conceived.”What incurred the managers’ wrath was a February 28th letter Tumazos sent to the CEOs of gold mining companies, Barrick, Newmont, Goldcorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Agnico-Eagle and Kinross, urging them “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”Tumazos estimated that through February 27th, gold mines have written off $45 billion before taxes for calendar 2013 and “$72 billion since 2008 solely for precious metals aside from copper or energy mishaps. These charges are very large in relation to historic dividends or earnings and have shaken confidence.”
Falling prices may negate U.S. Steel cost-cutting plan
February 22, 2014
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/02/23/Falling-prices-may-negate-U-S-Steel-cost-cutting-plan/stories/201402230118

Analyst John Tumazos said domestic producers also will be dented by the stronger U.S. dollar, which makes imports more competitively priced compared to domestically produced steel.”It’s difficult to pass price hikes when the dollar strengthens,” the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said.Despite that, Mr. Tumazos is expecting an improved performance from the Pittsburgh company this year.”I think U.S. Steel’s costs will fall more than prices might. And there’s a good chance they won’t lose money in 2014,” he said.Despite the concern about lower prices, U.S. Steel shares topped $30 in January, nearly 70 percent higher than they were when Mr. Longhi took over Sept. 1.Their ascent reflected investor confidence that the former Alcoa executive will be able to right the ship, optimism Mr. Tumazos jokingly referred to as “the Super Mario bubble.”
South Korea escapes pipe-dumping duties
February 18, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5618919-74/steel-dumping-tons#axzz2thy4Dcj5“It affected a couple of countries, but had no affect on others,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J. “It’s better to spend time on cutting costs like (CEO) Mario Longhi at U.S. Steel is doing than pursue anti-dumping suits, which are not effective.”Tumazos said, “In many ways, trade cases are a waste of time and expensive, costing several million dollars each. They distract management and send a bad message to the rank and file, who don’t feel they have to reduce costs. They are as significant as the kicking game in football to the overall outcome.”As a result of this case, U.S. Steel might ship 100,000 more tons of tubing and get $25-$50 more per ton sold, Tumazos said.The overall market for oil and gas tubing is about 3 million to 4 million tons per year, Tumazos said, based on industry reports.As much a problem as imports is new domestic manufacturing capacity. “Everybody except U.S. Steel is building a tube mill,” Tumazos said. They include the Vallourec plant in Youngstown, and others by Borusan Mannesmann in Baytown, Texas, Tenaris in Bay City, Texas, and Benteler in Caddo, La.“There are competitive factors over and above the imports,” he said. “There was more demand anticipated than actually happened. There are three to five more tube mills in the U.S. than are needed. It’s going to be competitive unless demand brings natural gas prices back to $7 (per mcf) on a sustained basis.”
Allegheny Technologies’ 4Q profit up despite lower sales
January 22, 2014
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5462717-74/million-ati-business#axzz2rAOtgOQL

“They had an unusually bad quarter in titanium and a loss from operations. It was not a quarter to write home about,” said analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.Tumazos said the market was reacting to the fact that only one of Allegheny Technologies various businesses, high-nickel alloys, had reasonable performance in 2013.“Their fourth quarter was perverse,” he said, citing only eight million pounds of titanium sold during the period, even as Boeing is increasing production of its 787 Dreamliner from 10 to 14 planes per month.“I think Allegheny is improving, but they’ve got to get more out of titanium, their core stainless steel and forging businesses,” Tumazos said.Tumazos said the key for the company will be the Brackenridge mill. “It’s going to be huge; in the fourth-quarter, in 2015 and 2016, they should see the benefits,” he said. “It’s the mother of all rolling mills, the most versatile in the world.”Tumazos said the sale of the tungsten business was the “right thing to do.” That combined with ATI’s other plant closings means management will have 13 fewer plants, and can focus on Brackenridge. “They have simplified the company.”
Alcoa to pay $384 million to settle Bahrain bribery charges
January 9, 2014
Reuters
By Allison Martellhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/09/us-alcoa-settlement-idUSBREA080PN20140109

“I don’t think there is too much relevance to the current personnel or the future. It is water under the bridge,” said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.
Lessons from Barrick Gold’s Pascua Lama
November 7, 2013
SNL Metals Economics Group
By Tiffany GrabskiLessons from Barrick Gold’s Pascua Lama.pdfCapEx projections have nearly tripled since the 2009 estimate to at least US$8.5 billion– with more than US$5 billion already spent–which John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research sees as the consequence of a sector that has become “hypnotized.””What is going on is the dynamic related to building things fast, what I call the hypnosis or brainwashing,” Tumazos told SNL, a dynamic that has upped costs and decreased direct responsibility.Adding to that, “this hypnosis’ that you have to build [projects] fast, is just what the contractors want, because there is no oversight checks or balances,” which Tumazos said is at the root of Pascua Lama’s current state and a warnings to other miners who may be following the same path.”Barrick used to brag two or three years ago that they have lots of their own managers to watch the contractors, but at one point early this year, Barrick hired a second engineering firm to watch the first — that’s like three levels of cost inefficiency and stupidity,” Tumazos said.”I suspect what they are trying to do is create a manageable process,” Tumazos told SNL, adding that he thinks it was “only good that Barrick put the project on hold.””By demobilizing and going back to square one, they are trying to watch the process, which I think is progress,” Tumazos said.Tumazos also suggested that Barrick might choose to develop the project in stages, rather than the full throttle 850,000 ounces per gold original plan. “They might start up at a third or half in the first year and build it in phases,” he said.

U.S. Steel to close Canadian plant, Gary coke facilities to cut costs
October 29, 2013
Trib Live Business
By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/4964727-74/steel-million-longhi#axzz2j8Xk8FL2John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the company faces a decision on its Fairfield, Ala., Works, which faces intense competition from at least six mills built in the South in recent years, amid a declining market for steel.In the last six years, steel shipments in the United States have declined from 109.5 million tons in 2006 to a projected 95.7 million tons this year, a decline of 14 million. In addition, steel imports have declined by an additional 14 million tons over the same period. “The steel market is 28 million tons less,” he said. Fairfield is an issue because “16 million to 17 million tons of capacity have been built in their lap as the market has gotten smaller,” Tumazos said, referring to the new mills.

Veris Gold Corp. Presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference
October 11, 2013Mr. Shaun Heinrichs will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference on Wednesday, October 16th at 7:40 AM (PST) / 10:40 AM (EST). The conference will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel.Link to the Webcast

Entree Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference October 16, 2013Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place October 16, 2013. Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 2:20 pm (EDT) during the Natural Resources track. The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017).

Glencore, Vale discuss merger of nickel operations in Ontario
October 11, 2013
The Globe and Mail
by Eric Reguly and Marta Lillohttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/glencore-vale-revive-talks-over-canadian-nickel-tie-up-sources/article14827267/“Nickel has become a financial catastrophe for Vale in Canada,” said John Tumazos, research analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “Also, the CAD has strengthened since Vale acquired Inco, making it more expensive to pay wages. Meanwhile, nickel prices have fallen about 75 per cent since 2007.”
Orvana To Attend The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
October 15, 2013http://www.orvana.com/news/pdf/131015-2.pdfTORONTO, ONTARIO, October 15, 2013 – Orvana Minerals Corp. (TSX:ORV, the “Company”) a multimine gold and copper producer, reports that Michael Winship, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference at 11:20 am (ET) on October 16, 2013. The conference will take place in New York, NY.Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting the front page of the Company website at www.orvana.com.

Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
October 10, 2013http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=74SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, October 10, 2013 (MARKETWIRE) — Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Non-Executive Chairman, will present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference on October 16th in New York City.Metals & Mining Presentation Details:
Where:
Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
212 East 42nd Street
New York, NY 10017When:
Wednesday, October 16th at 3:40 p.m.
Webcast Link: Please click here
Conference Website: http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/
Comstock Mining To Present At The New York City Metals & Mining Conference Hosted By John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
October 9, 2013http://www.comstockmining.com/news/press-releasesVIRGINIA CITY, Nev., Oct. 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Comstock Mining Inc. (“Comstock Mining” or “the Company”) (NYSE MKT: LODE), a producing, Nevada-based, gold and silver mining company, today announced that Mr. Corrado De Gasperis, President and CEO, will present on Wednesday, October 16, 2013, at the Metals & Mining Conference hosted by John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
Is Wall Street warehousing the price of aluminum?
October 6, 2013
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
by Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/is-wall-street-warehousing-the-price-of-aluminum-706363/One longtime metals industry analyst disagrees.”I believe the complaints of the beverage brewing customers are completely valid,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst.Warehouses “bring it in, but they don’t bring it out”, he (Tumazos) added.
Can U.S. Steel stage a comeback?
Many of its problems are the product of a management that is being replaced wholesale
August 25, 2013
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/can-us-steel-stage-comeback-700640/Analyst John Tumazos told clients last month that U.S. Steel “may not be able to achieved sustained profitability unless either domestic steel demand increased 10 percent, capacity falls 10 percent or some combination”

Heard Off the Street: Investors, the trend is not always your friend
August 4, 2013
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-investors-the-trend-is-not-always-your-friend-698028/If people drive less, they will be able to hold onto their cars longer, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst. “If people drive their cars 10 percent fewer miles, their cars will last 10 percent longer, and they’ll buy 10 percent fewer.”

Metals writedowns since 2008 breach $200bn – Tumazos
July 31, 2013
Mineweb
by Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-mining-finance-investment-old?oid=199293&sn=DetailIn a recent analysis, John Tumazos Very Independent Research attributed metals and mining writedowns to “volatile reversals from the 1975-78, 1982-86, 1997-2003 and 2012-13 commodity price depressions to 2004-08 to 2010-11 ‘Supercycle Euphoria’.”Mining and Metals Analyst John Tumazos observed that the total of metals write-downs from 2008 to 2013 will breach the $200 billion mark this year.In his analysis, Tumazos notes, “Since 2008 the break down by sector…is Gold $48.9 billion, Aluminum and Alumina $42.3 billion, Integrated Steel $27.8 billion, Copper $25.9 billion, Nickel $12.8 billion, Met Coal $9.8 billion…Platinum $2.2 billion, Thermal Coal $1.8 billion…Diamonds $1.1 billion, Molybdenum $0.7 billion…Rare Earths $0.3 billion, Uranium $0.3 billion, and Silver $0.1 billion.”Year-to-date, the 2013 metals total is $19.9 billion of gold and $2.7 billion of nongold writedowns including $900 million for integrated steel, $200 million in iron ore, $500 million in coal, $500 million in energy and $500 million in the others category.“Some companies reported June 30th results without writing down assets that we view as eventual writedowns by year-end 2015, including Nucor (scrap acqs), Steel Dynamics (scrap acqs), Goldcorp (El Morro cu-au) and Newmont (Conga au-cu). Perhaps we anticipate half of those yet to come,” he observed.The largest losses from 2008-2013 have been Rio Tinto $36.2B, Barrick Gold $19.4B, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & gold $17.7B, ArcelorMittal Steel $16.6B, BHP Billiton $11.9B, ThyssenKrupp $10.2B, Kinross Gold $10.2B, Anglo American $9.8B, Vale $7.2B, Newcrest Mining $7.1B, AngloGold Ashanti $6.6b, Xstrata $6.6B, Newmont Mining $6B, Kazakhmys $3,8B, Alpha Natural Resources $2.8B, Goldcorp $2.6B, Cliffs Natural Resources $1.8B, Alcoa $1.6B, Glencore $1.5B, Eurasian Natural Resources $1.5B, and Agnico-Eagle $1.2B, according to Tumazos.In his analysis, Tumazos observed that hedging and the Pascua-Lama project in Chile have contributed most of Barrick Gold’s losses to date. However, bad operations or projects were a minority of Rio Tinto, AcelorMittal, and BHP’s losses.“In general, small losses (under $1 billion) involved aged operations, cap ex overruns, no permits, currency shifts or other mishaps,” Tumazos noted. “Big losses usually were big buyouts.
John Tumazos Schedule 13D Texas Rare Earth Resources
TRER 13D_A2 – executed.pdf
Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Board Changes
Marketwatch
June 5, 2013
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/texas-rare-earth-resources-announces-board-changes-2013-06-05SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, Jun 05, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) — Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (otcqx:TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced the appointment of Mr. Anthony Marchese as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board after having served as a director of the Company and Chairman of the Audit Committee since December 2009. Mr. Marchese replaces Mr. John Tumazos, who has resigned from the board. The company has also appointed Ms. Laura Lynch to the Board of Directors.
Form 8-K for TEXAS RARE EARTH RESOURCES CORP.
31-May-2013Change in Directors or Principal OfficersItem 5.02. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain OfficersOn May 27, 2013, Mr. John Tumazos resigned as a director and non-executive chairman of the board of the Corporation. Mr. Tumazos resigned from the board to dedicate more of his time to his own business and personal pursuits.Mr. Tumazos has informed the board that while he was pleased at the metallurgical progress evident in the company’s press releases between March 20, 2013 and May 8, 2013, his resignation was due to his disagreement with certain policy decisions of the board regarding the operations of the Corporation and his belief that now is the appropriate time to sell the Corporation to a larger concern.The board does not believe that his concerns as expressed to the board were truly disagreements with the board’s fundamental business strategy for the Corporation and its operations. The board takes its obligation to increase shareholder value seriously and is actively considering all pathways available to the Corporation while also finalizing the Corporation’s current technical work to prove out alternative production methodologies from its Preliminary Economic Assessment of June 2012. The board believes that finalizing these methodologies in a cost efficient manner while simutaneously pursuing alternative strategic arrangements, including the possibility of selling the Corporation, is the best path to maximize shareholder value. The board has overseen a drastic reduction of the Corporation’s use of funds and remains dedicated to using Corporate funds in an efficient manner best suited to maximizing the Corporation’s value. The board will continue to consistently, actively consider and pursue all available opportunities for the Corporation and will engage qualified consultants as deemed necessary and appropriate by the board to effectively assist the board in evaluating and implementing its strategy, including if deemed appropriate, in assisting in selling the Corporation.The Corporation thanks Mr. Tumazos for his dedicated service to the Corporation and looks forward to continuing to work with Mr. Tumazos as a significant shareholder of the Corporation to maximize value.Pursuant to Item 5.02(a)(3), this Form 8-K has been provided to Mr. Tumazos. The Corporation will promptly file any letter provided by Mr. Tumazos in relation thereto by amendment to this Form 8-K.John Tumazos Resignation Letter: TRER jct resignation for 8k June 3.pdf8K Filed on EDGAR: TRER 8k jct resignation May 31 2013.pdf
U.S. Steel promotes COO Mario Longhi to president
May 31, 2013
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-promotes-coo-mario-longhi-to-president-689731/Analyst John Tumazos said the purpose of giving Mr. Longhi more responsibilities is to “attack costs and bring a fresh perspective from the outside.””The company is attacking their costs for their survival and the prosperity of the company,” the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said. “What U.S. Steel is doing is the right thing.”U.S. Steel is not the only metals producer suffering. Mr. Tumazos said Pittsburgh specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies and aluminum producer Alcoa also have failed to capitalize on the recovery.”All three companies are the same. None of them are in good shape if six to 12 months from now we have a recession,” Mr. Tumazos said.

U.S. Steel promotes Mario Longhi to president
May 30, 2013
Trib Live Business
by Thomas Olsonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/4109921-74/longhi-steel-president#axzz2UsNYFFoX“I interpret Mario’s title (of president) as signifying the importance of lowering the cost of operating the company. The board is preparing for tougher days,” said John Tumazos, head of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.”John (Surma) may rejoice at having someone help him do the cost reductions,” said Tumazos.
Steel prices fall before scrap in ‘curious’ move
May 3, 2013
American Metal Market
by Samuel Frizellhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3201325/Steel/Mills-tweak-steel-prices-before-scrap-in-curious-move.html“Mills could have greater control over their pricing if they moved away from surcharges, a number of analysts told AMM. ‘It’s logical that the mills would not want their customers asking them for a $20 per ton price drop every time the scrap price falls,” said John Tumaos, senior analyst and owner of Very Independent Research.
Heard Off the Street: U.S. Steel woes surprise analysts
May 5, 2013
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
by Len Boselovic
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-us-steel-woes-surprise-analysts-686356/Any cost-cutting efforts will be hampered by the company’s labor agreements with the United Steelworkers union, commercial contracts and other factors, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. He said renegotiating medical benefits for union workers and retirees could result in substantial savings. But a good portion of those costs were fixed in September, when USW members ratified a three-year labor agreement covering about 17,000 U.S. workers.Mr. Surma’s “mission appears to be to save more than nine figures, or $4 to $5 a ton. Given the condition of the steel market, they need something like $20 or more,” Mr. Tumazos said.Having Mr. Longhi, a newcomer to the company, manage the review should be a good thing, he (Tumazos) added.”He is not accustomed to the status quo and has a fresh look,” Mr. Tumazos said.
Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER’s Rich Round Top ProjectProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/?p=43129YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icO3OE-Y-VUSocial Media: #Beryllium: a Key Asset in #TRER’s Rich Round Top Project: http://youtu.be/icO3OE-Y-VU via @youtube #texasrareearthresourceMay 2, 2013 — John Tumazos, President, Chairman, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TSXV: ZEN) in an interview with Dave Glover for ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) describes the characteristics of the Round Top project in Hudspeth County, Texas. John states “There’s a high enriched uranium zone and beryllium zone, which we believe is the richest beryllium resource in the world.” For the balance of 2013 Texas Rare Earth Resources will be focusing “…rigorously engineering our process.”Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER) is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities.Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.trer.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.Regards,
Sean Benson
Alcoa may cut output as prices continue dive
American Metal Market
May 1, 2013
by Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3199756/Search/Results/Alcoa-may-cut-output-as-prices-continue-dive.html?Keywords=alcoa&OrderType=1

“This is a logical reaction to where current aluminum prices are and various pockets of weakness in different parts of the world,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. “It’s unfortunate, but when (the aluminum price) is 80 cents (per pound) these things are going to happen.”Aluminum producers might have missed a window to secure lower power prices as natural gas prices have recovered over the past year, Tumazos said. “The recovery of natural gas to $4.40 (per mm BTU) reduces the likelihood of deep concessionary power contracts and raises the possibility of a minor, mild recovery in coal prices. The window for getting deep concessionary power contracts was $1.90 (mm BTU) gas – – 13 months ago…..So the cheap power window is now gone, and the aluminum price is lousy.”
UPDATE AND CLARIFICATIONS: 1/3 of global gold mines have pre-tax costs of $1,250-$1,750-Tumazos16 out of 49 publicly traded gold producers have very low pre-tax costs accounting for 11.5 million gold ounces, says a recent survey by John Tumazos Very Independent Research.Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 17 Apr 2013
MINEWEB LINK: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=186433&sn=Detail
RENO (MINEWEB) -A survey by of 49 publicly traded companies accounting for 60% of world gold output, which was conducted by New Jersey’s John Tumazos Very Independent Research, estimates that one-third of gold mines have pretax costs of $1,250 to $1,750 per ounce.“The selloff from $1,900 in September 2011 to nearly $1,350 on April 15th places prices squarely within the costs of the highest one-third of mines,” wrote long-time gold analyst John Tumazos.“Large gold mines have about $450 per oz of other costs beyond mine cash production costs such as exploration, SG&A, interest, depreciation, etc.,” said Tumazos. “In 2013 we estimated ABX [Barrick] at $422, NEW [Newmont] at $449 and GG [Goldcorp] at $453 per oz.”“There were 16 of 49 companies with very low costs, having all mines <$800 direct cash production costs, accounting for 23% or 11.5 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 tonne sample,” the survey revealed. “There were 15 of 49 companies with very high costs, having all mines >$800 direct cash costs, for 12% or 5.8 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 t sample.”In a statement received by Mineweb Wednesday, Tumazos clarified that only four companies, not the five originally contained in his analysis—Sibanye Gold (just spun out of Gold Fields), and DRD Gold, Veris Gold (Jerritt Canyon, NV) and about ¾ of Harmony Gold–have direct costs exceeding $1,000 for all mines. “These companies are under the most pressure,” he noted.Tumazos predicted, “While a few old mines will be lost, unfunded new projects slated for 2016 or 2017 may likely die off given the lack of gold mine equity capital. We estimate that up to 5% of current output may wither then die, but 10% of prospective 2016 or 2017 output will not arrive on time.”In his analysis Tumazos observed the cost structure of the global gold mining industry suggests a temporary spike below $1,000 gold is improbable. “We stop short of using the word ‘impossible’, but it is clear that costs are about three times as high as they were a decade ago as the mining boom began. Lower grade mines, $90 per barrel crude oil, appreciated resource currencies, wage inflation, government royalties and natural productivity losses to depth have driven costs higher. This is another factor suggesting to us that the past month’s decline in gold prices constitute a ‘panic.’”Over long periods of time such as five or more years, Tumazos expects gold mining costs to rise as open pit and underground mines deepen to lose productivity and suffer high stripping, metallurgies grow more complex at depth and grades decline.Tumazos also advised that direct cash production costs may change with currency, mine practices or other input costs. “Higher cutoffs grades, deferred stripping, deferred underground tunnel, stope and infrastructure development and bypassing hard-to-mine zones can cut costs by 25% or more for a year or two. Exploration and administrative charges will fall.”Observing that base metals mines account for cost to 20% of world gold mine output, Tumazos said, “Recent prices near $7 for nickel, $0.80 for zinc, $0.90 for lead and $3.25 per lb for copper put mild pressure on some of those mines.”
TRER’s Texas Sized Rare Earth Deposit Advantage
April 4, 2013
ProEdgeWire
ProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/rare-earth-tv/trers-texas-sized-rare-earth-deposit-advantage/
Youtube Link: http://youtu.be/IQYKkJnlFE8April 4 2013 — John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER, OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states “…we think we’ll have the lowest mining costs per ton of any (copper mine, iron ore mine) mine in North America of like size.” Adding: “We have a billion pounds of heavy rare earth oxides” and the “…richest beryllium deposit in the world.” And concludes with infrastructure advantages such as the land buffer package the State of Texas has placed around their property.TRER is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities. Their primary focus is exploring and, if warranted, developing its Round Top rare earth minerals project located in Hudspeth County, Texas, 85 miles east of El Paso.Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.TRER.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.If you need any additional assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me.Regards,
Sean Benson
U.S. Steel plant’s fate unsolved, Slovak prime minister says
by Alex Nixon
March 25, 2013
Trib Live Businesshttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/3724303-74/steel-plant-slovakia#axzz2OgQJzmWlU.S. Steel had hoped to sell the plant, but industry analyst John Tumazos, with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said economics don’t favor that.“The way that the world has unfolded in the last two years does not make it easy to sell steel from Kosice,” Tumazos said. “I don’t think it’s in the power of the Slovak government to make steel prices higher or production costs lower.”The Serbian plant accounted for most of the $200 million loss on European operations U.S. Steel recorded in 2011, Tumazos said.“It appeared when they were running the two plants that Kosice was break-even,” he (Tumazos) said. “But conditions seem to be worse than when they walked out of Serbia.”

Entrée Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference March 28, 2013Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place March 28, 2013.The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017). Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 10:20 am (est).Presentation slides and a simultaneous audio webcast of the presentation will be available through the following link:
John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC’s Metals & Mining Conference Webcast

A link to the webcast along with presentation slides will also be available on the Entrée Gold website:
http://www.entreegold.com/investors/presentations/Please contact us if you require further information.
Kind regards,
Entrée Gold Inc.Monica Hamm
Manager Investor Relations
Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Conference on March 28thMarch 25, 2013- Sierra Blanca, TX- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX:TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that John C. Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, will present at the Very Independent Research Conference on Thursday, March 28th at 5:05 p.m. Eastern in NYCVery Independent Research Conference Details:
Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
Presenting Time: 5:05 p.m. Eastern
Location: Westin Grand Central 212 East 42nd Street, New York
Tract: Natural ResourcesFor more information including webcasting please visit
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/register.aspx?conf=vir11&page=index&url=http%3A//www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/.

Orient Paper to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in New YorkBAODING, China, March 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKT: ONP) (“Orient Paper” or the “Company”), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, announced today that it will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference on March 28, 2013.The date, time and location of Orient Paper’s presentation at the conference are as follows:
Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
Time: 8:35 to 9:10 a.m. US Eastern Time
Presenter: Mr. Winston Yen, Chief Financial Officer
Venue: Westin Grand Central, 212 East 42nd Street, New York, NYThe presentation will be available for download from the Company’s website at http://www.orientpaperinc.com/corporate-presentation.html on March 29, 2013Investors who wish to meet with Orient Paper’s management may contact John Tumazos via john@veryindependentresearch.com from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC or the Company’s investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference and registration, please visit:http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_28,_2013.htm

U.S. Steel, Nucor CEOs urge caution on natural gas exports
March 22, 2013
by John D. Oravecz
Trib Live Businesshttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/3703788-74/gas-steel-natural#axzz2OGoc8M4dJohn Tumazos, a steel analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said the U.S. Steel and Nucor comments were self-serving.“If you own ground in Beaver or Westmoreland counties with shale gas, and got royalties, you’d want the producer to sell for the highest price. … A natural gas producer in a free-market economy should be able to sell to whomever he wants.”

“In the long run I don’t think exports will be a big deal,” Tumazos said. The process of cooling natural gas to a liquid is complicated, demanding and expensive. “I’ll be surprised if 10 (percent) to 20 percent is exported.”

Steel analyst Tumazos said it’s unfortunate that Chinese companies are subsidized, but American manufacturers that make products from steel are “at a disadvantage if they don’t get cheaper steel.”

He (Tumazos) said steelmakers should cut prices to discourage imports and sell more products here and overseas.In the era when hot-rolled coil sold for $300 to $400 a ton, companies watched costs more closely. With prices now at $620 or higher, they aren’t as diligent, he (Tumazos) said.

Aluminum pins 2013 hopes on political fortunes
December 31, 2012
by Suzy Waite
American Metal Markethttp://www.amm.com/Article/3155193/Aluminum-pins-2013-hopes-on-political-fortunes.htmlJohn Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. agreed. “China is growing, but not as fast. And the Chinese are expanding production when demand is slower,” he said. “U.S. and European output doesn’t matter. The issue is whether the Chinese expand five, 10 or 15 percent. They are 45 percent of world output, and no one thinks (demand) will grow by 10 or 12 percent (in 2013)””I think you have to be worried (about the price) when there are consecutive weeks of record exchange inventories and most regions in the world appear to be slowing,” said Tumazos, who expects the average aluminum price to hover around $1,984 per tonne this year.
Title: TRER a ‘multi-trick pony’ Deposit with 25 Minerals: 15 Rare Earths and 2 Energy MineralsCONTENT: John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states: “We believe we are the richest beryllium deposit known” and adds “we think we have the best logistics in the world and the lowest mining costs per ton of any mine in North America of any type.”Tumazos noted that TRER is a “multi-trick pony” deposit having 25 minerals, 15 of which rare earths and two energy minerals. TRER has the capability to recover 18 or 19 of these, which suggests that the property could “earn an economic return from the 15 rare earths alone or uranium and thorium alone”. TRER can also capitalize on its beryllium (298,000 ton historical resource estimate) and niobium resources. It should be an exciting 2013 for TRERDisclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. is a member of ProEdgeWire.Interview Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqQoT_mo4A&feature=youtu.be
Vale’s nickel production down 1.9% in 2012
February 4, 2013
by Carolina Guerra
Metal Bulletinhttp://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3150453/Vales-nickel-production-down-19-in-2012.html“Many many problems exist in the nickel supply-demand balance and specific Vale operations, where Vale employs billions of dollars of assets to earn little or nothing prior to impairments,” John Tumazos, from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, told Metal Bulletin.“I think their best strategy for nickel is to try to fix their mines not started up to full potential, and wait for a better time with a stronger world economy,” Tumazos added referring to a current situation of low prices and high refined inventories in the nickel market.
US construction to help copper in 2013
January 24, 2013
By Suzy Waite
American Metal Markethttp://www.amm.com/Article/3146208/US-construction-to-help-copper-in-2013.html“I think copper is the tightest of the metals,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. “But I don’t think it is a complete statement.” While some companies are delaying projects, others such as a Rio Tinto PLC and Freeport, are expanding copper production, which could put excess copper on the marketplace, he said.

Anglo’s New CEO Takes Tough Task
January 9, 2013
By Devon Maylie and John Miller
The Wall Street Journalhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323706704578229531018722450.htmlAnglo American’s Minas Rio project in Brazil “is going to be a headache no matter who runs it,” said analyst John Tumazos, a New Jersey analyst who owns 8,000 shares of Anglo American. “It’s going to take time before he knows enough to add value there with his expertise.” He (Tumazos) predicted that Mr. Cutifani would write down the investment at the first opportunity.

Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER’s Strategy
Proedgewire
December 6, 2012
by Alessandro Brunohttp://proedgewire.com/rare-earth-intel/beryllium-a-key-asset-in-trers-strategy-for-future-growth/“The beryllium mineralization structure, according to Trer, is present alongside areas of potentially economic grade uranium deposits. Trer has also found evidence to suggest that this mineralization also exists under Sierra Blanca. Based on the Cyprus results there could be as much as 298,000 short tons at 1.9% of beryllium ore, which would guarantee sufficient resources to operate for several years given that the beryllium market is rather small at around 100 tons a year. Indeed, Chairman, John Tumazos, believes that Trer’s deposits “is one of the largest and richest in the world”. The extraction process, moreover, would be based around the original tunnel built by Cyprus inside the mountain, which should be capable of yielding some 30,000 tons. Beryllium is mostly found in the United States and Kazakhstan, which also hold the only related processing facilities.”

Clarification and Retraction of Technical Disclosure
Galway Resources Press Release
December 7, 2012http://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=560770&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Clarification-and-Retraction-of-Technical-DisclosureJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research Explanation: We removed the August 20, 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions memorandum on the Victorio molybdenum-tungsten deposit from our John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions website, http://www.veryindependentopinions.com/ following a November 4, 2011 visit to the New Mexico site as our 2008 memorandum had become outdated.

Heard Off the Street: Aerospace firms facing a dilemma
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
November 18, 2012
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/heard-off-the-street-aerospace-firms-facing-a-dilemma-662599/Consequently, their suppliers “want to sell a system or solutions rather than something that costs so many cents a pound,” said John Tumazos, an industry analyst from Holmdel, N.J.”They know they have a bunch of businesses that are not well understood in the market,” Mr. Tumazos said. “Aerospace investors treat the steel company like a liability.”
U.S. Steel weighs bids for Slovakia plant
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
November 14, 2012
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-weighs-bids-for-slovakia-plant-662001/“The Slovak mill is a good mill. It’s doing really well not to lose money this year given that Europe’s not so good,” said John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.He (Tumazos) said the plant is worth more now than it was when U.S. Steel arrived, based on investments the steel producer has made during its tenure.Mr. Tumazos said ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel producer, probably is not interested because it is slashing costs. Stung by a $709 million third-quarter loss, the Luxembourg steel producer will save $1 billion annually by slashing its dividend from 75 cents to 20 cents. ArcelorMittal’s chairman, CEO and president, Lakshmi Mittal, “is a seller these days, not a buyer,” Mr. Tumazos said.
Thompson Creek offering $350 M in notes
American Metal Market
November 13, 2012
By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3117336/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creek-offering-350M-in-notes.htmlAnalyst John Tumazos of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC agreed that revolving credit facilities were more constraining, involving “strict covenants, regular oversight and ongoing input as (to) how to run the business,” and the replacement of the revolving facility would be a positive development for the company.”Management chooses a higher interest rate cost and higher underwriting fee schedule from a ‘junk bond’ in place of bank debt to keep management jobs,” Tumazos told AMM in an e-mail. “More debt and higher financing costs will not make the company healthier.”
Thompson Creek’s Loughrey announces plans to retire
American Metal Market
November 9, 2012
By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3116080/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creeks-Loughrey-announces-plans-to-retire.html“Usually in a financially weak company, the creditors or banks appoint the successor chief executive officer, which is what I would expect here,” John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. “I think Kevin will be replaced by someone whose job is to prevent the company from spending any discretionary money, such as the lenders might dictate,” adding that personnel cuts at the company were likely.
Yukon-Nevada Gold Presents at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conferencehttp://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/Events.asp?ReportID=539703&_Type=Events&_Title=John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-LLC-Metals-Mining-Conference
Golden Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining ConferenceSeptember 27, 2012
http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-Sept-27-12-Presents-Tumazos.pdfGOLDEN, Colo., September 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Golden Minerals Company (NYSE MKT: AUMN) (TSX: AUM), a growing mid-tier silver and gold producer with mining operations in Durango State, Mexico, announced today that it is participating in the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference being held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42ndStreet in New York, October 2 through 3, 2012. At 12:00pm ET on October 2, 2012, Jeffrey Clevenger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Golden Minerals Company, will participate in a webcast company presentation where he will discuss the company’s current operations and future outlook.A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with the accompanying presentation materials, will be available at http://www.goldenminerals.com/. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast will be available at www.wsw.com or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm .
Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference
September 27, 2012http://trer.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Press_Release_Sept26_PresentatConference.pdfSIERRA BLANCA, TX, September 27, 2012– Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQB: TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration and development company, announced today that John Tumazos, non-executive chairman of the board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42nd Street in New York City on Wednesday, October 3rd at 4:00 PM ET. A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with presentation materials, will be available at www.trer.com. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast be available athttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir10/ or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm
Aluminum price slide could cap smelter capacity
American Metal Market
August 28, 2012
By Suzy Waitehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3080615/Home/Aluminum-price-slide-could-cap-smelter-capacity.html“The price will drop until companies cut output,” said John Tumazos, an analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, who said he expects “large output cuts” in the coming weeks.
Union contract with U.S. Steel expected
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
August 29, 2012
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/union-contract-with-us-steel-expected-650919/

“I think the [Mittal] furnaces are going to be cold. Whether it’s a lockout or a strike, it doesn’t matter,” said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. “It is not tenable to have $75-and-change employment costs. Around the world, people build new mills and pay their workers $20 and less per hour.”

Mr. Tumazos estimated those liabilities (health and life insurance benefits to retirees) could increase 20 percent by the end of the year — excluding any increases caused by higher health care costs — because of record low interest rates. The value of retiree pension and health care benefits is determined by interest rates. The lower the rate, the bigger the liability.

Mr. Tumazos is not so sure (that ArcelorMittal would be unable to hold out for more than U.S. Steel gets). He believes ArcelorMittal chairman, president and CEO Lakshmi Mittal, who owns 40 percent of the steelmaker’s stock, “is completely serious” about demanding $28 an hour in concessions. Consequently, U.S. Steel will be at a disadvantage if Mittal receives more generous concessions, Mr. Tumazos said.
Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO CompensationTRER – Form 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO Compensation.pdf
Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Change in Directors or Principal Officerstrer8-k August 3, 2012 Change in Directors or Principal Officers.pdf
Texas Rare Earth Resources August 7, 2012 Conference Call TranscriptTRER Conf.-Call-Transcript-08.07.2012.pdf
Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Newly Appointed Chief Executive Officer and New Board Members
Source: August 6, 2012 Press Release from Texas Rare Earth Resources WebsiteDENVER & SIERRA BLANCA, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (the “Company”) (OTCQX: TRER), a rare earths mineral exploration and development company, has announced the appointment of Mr. Daniel Gorski as its chief executive officer, as well as the addition of five new members to its board of directors: Mr. John C. Tumazos, CFA, as non-executive chairman, and Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, Mr. Cecil Wall, and Mr. James Wolfe as directors. Mr. Gorski commented, “I am pleased to have these very experienced and talented individuals joining the Texas Rare Earth Resources’ board. We are continuing to advance the Round Top project in Texas, and in the near term we plan to focus on metallurgy and proving out our ability to extract the valuable minerals in this deposit.” Full Press Release: TRER_New-CEO-Board-Members_FINAL-PR.pdf
With Demand Sputtering, Miners Pause Big Projects
August 3, 2012
by Liam Pleven and John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444840104577553460712866028.html“About half of the institutional investors have stopped investing in mining and cyclical resources,” says John Tumazos, an investment adviser based in New Jersey.
Texas Rare Earth Resources, Form 8K for change in control dated July 24, 2012TRER – Form 8-K for Change in Control (7-24) v4.pdf
Texas Rare Earth Resources, Excerpt from July 16, 2012 10QOn June 12, 2012, three of our shareholders filed a Schedule 13D with the SEC to act together to explore their options concerning proposing and voting as a group on candidates for the Board of Directors of TRER, including potentially for the purpose of changing control of TRER.On July 5, 2012, the three shareholders who had filed a Schedule 13D on June 12, 2012, plus a group of other participants, including some additional shareholders of the Company, filed a preliminary Schedule 14A with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, regarding the solicitation of consents to four separate proposals to the shareholders: (i) repeal any provision of the Company’s bylaws in effect on that date the proposal is adopted that was not in the Amended and Restated Bylaws of Standard Silver Corporation (now known as Texas Rare Earth Resource Corporation) that became effective by written consent of the board of directors on September 8, 2008; (ii) remove without cause the following directors of the Company: James Graham, Graham Karklin, Gregory Martin and Marc LeVier; (iii) amended section 4.06 of the Amended and Restated Bylaws to provide that any vacancies on the board of directors resulting from the removal of directors by the shareholders of the Company pursuant to the solicited consents be filled exclusively by the shareholders of the Company and (iv) elect Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, John Tumazos, Cecil C. Wall and Dr. James R. Wolfe to serve as directors of the Company.
Analysts revise Alcoa forecasts downwardJuly 5, 2012
American Metal Market
Suzy Waitehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3056703/Home/Analysts-revise-Alcoa-forecasts-downward.htmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed. “(Unfortunately), the reality is that the low ingot price is causing the entire company to be discounted when flat-rolled and engineered products are having record years,” he said. “Those divisions are improving the value of the entire enterprise. And that’s all lost in the aluminum price.””The dollar being stronger does lower costs in Australia, Brazil, and Europe due to the exchange rate. (But) the change in the dollar is less significant than the price of aluminum,” Tumazos said. “The aluminum price has fallen more than the dollar has risen by a large margin.”
Tough on steel: Makers barely breaking even as shares fall, supplies swell
June 9, 2012
Trib Live Business
By Kim Leonardhttp://triblive.com/business/1944638-74/steel-prices-makers-market-analysts-bradford-based-million-production-added“From a volume standpoint, the steel business is quite good,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.”A lot of capacity has been added in the U.S. — I estimate 31.7 million tons has been added, or is being added, since 2007,” while just two or three plants have closed, he said.Steel shipments could reach 97 million tons this year, compared to a peak of 109.5 million in 2006 and a low of 60.3 million in recession year 2009. “That suggests we’re on our way back,” Tumazos said.
Was Regent the heavy or the fall-guy for Barrick’s missteps?
June 7, 2012
Mineweb
By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=152812&sn=Detail&pid=102055In an e-mail Wednesday to Mineweb, however, analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research suggested “certainly the market valuation of ABX has discounted its outlook. ABX trades at about a 25% discount to estimated NPV, and most gold stocks trade at a 25% or more premium.”Tumazos told Mineweb, “Peter Munk was born November 8, 1927. God bless his longevity, but the appointment of such as distinguished co-chairman appears only prudent at age 84 ½.””The biggest challenge to Jamie Sokalsky’s team will be to prune or kill projects,” Tumazos advised. “Goldrush and the Turquoise Ridge open pit appear years better than Donlin Creek and Cerro Casale, and markets will rejoice if he puts the latter two projects on ice.”Tumazos suggests, “A reasonable press release might read, ‘Engineering and construction costs in today’s world are unreasonable, and we will not embark on any capital projects exceeding xxx billion dollars’ where perhaps the maximum outlays should be $2 billion ‘brownfield expansions near current sites’”.”Barrick’s share price will rally after investors are convinced its projects will earn over 15% after tax returns without undue risks,” Tumazos advised. “Its heavily discounted valuation reflects doubts that new mines will produce gold at state costs and, in effect, doubts that projects will earn suitable returns.”
RG Steel’s demise renews economic worriesJune 1, 2012
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/rg-steels-demise-renews-economic-worries-638426/“It’s wonderful the steel market is as good as it is without non-residential construction and high imports,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst. “Autos, appliances and capital goods are steadily improving from the abysmal 2009.”Mr. Tumazos said U.S. steel producers have only themselves to blame for the recent rise in imports. He said they were too aggressive in raising prices, which opened the door to lower-priced imports.Mr. Tumazos anticipates some of RG’s equipment may run again, but not before a more robust economic recovery takes hold.
Xstrata Sets Vote on MergerMay 31, 2012
Wall Street Journal
By John W. Miller and Alex Macdonaldhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304821304577438730419542176.htmlThe compensation package is prompting new complaints. “The retention bonus is like a lump sum paid to the fox for raiding the chicken coop,” said John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investment adviser who owns 19,000 shares in Xstrata, a U.K.-listed miner of copper, coal and other products.
Thompson Creek Mine suffers wall slough
May 21, 2012
American Metal Market
By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3033587/Thompson-Creek-Mine-suffers-wall-slough.htmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said the event, which displaced about 300,000 tonnes of rock, will likely have a minor impact on the company’s operations. “There may be no loss of revenue but some cost inefficiencies related to the cleanup or trucks, shovels, etc. ‘standing by’ for several days awaiting the cleanup’s completion,” he (Tumazos) told AMM in an email, adding that stockpiled ore should be able to cover the loss of material.The molybdenum market is not expected to be affected due to a recent softening in demand. “Our hunch, based on spot prices and world stainless output, is that many roasters have more finished product than they can sell anyway,” Tumazos said.
Coal, the Hot Commodity for Deals
March 5, 2012
Wall Street Journal
John W. Miller and Kris Maherhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577229123703258182.html?KEYWORDS=tumazos“Coking coal is scarce,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC. who expects the M&A appetite for coal to continue in 2012. “There are folks willing to buy [companies] because of bullish demand and China, and folks willing to sell because of fears of carbon taxes and new environmental regulations,” he said.
Alcoa gives positive aluminum outlook

January 9, 2012
Reuters
By Alexandra Ulmerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-alcoa-idUSTRE80826Z20120110“It’s never good to see a loss, but some of this could have been worse,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research.
Chile miner Antofagasta seeks hands-on CEO
March 16, 2012
Reuters
By Alexandra Ulmerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/chile-antofagasta-ceo-idUSL2E8EG5XG20120316“I assume Antofagasta recruits a hands-on engineer type,” said John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research.
Aleris roadshow signals nearing IPO
April 3, 2012
American Metal Market
by Suzy Waitehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3006617/Aleris-roadshow-signals-nearing-IPO.htmlThe dropping price of aluminum, coupled with high global inventory levels, don’t make an IPO of an aluminum company an appealing prospect at the moment, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.”Maybe they’ll raise half as many shares as they intended at two-thirds of the price,” he (Tumazos) said. “If they get the deal done on schedule at the terms they promised, it would be a great achievement.”
Glencore Merger Could Take Two Years
March 26, 2012
The Wall Street Journal
by John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577293760744266818.html?mod=WSJ_MetalsAndMining_leftHeadlines“It is absurd that Glencore maintains the demeanor that this could be a reasonable bid,” says John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investment adviser who owns 19,000 shares in Xstrata.
Hecla to Present at Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in BostonMar 20, 2012 08:00:03 (ET)COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho, Mar 20, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Hecla Mining Company’s (HL, Trade ) Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James A. Sabala will speak at the Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in Boston on March 27 at 8:00 a.m. (EDT). Mr. Sabala will present an overview of Hecla’s business strategy and its position as the largest North America-focused silver producer.A webcast of the presentation will be available at http://www.wsw.com/admin/spreadsheet/?vir9 as well as on Hecla’s web site at Investors Home page. The slides used by Mr. Sabala will also be available in the Investor Relations section of Hecla’s web site at www.hecla-mining.com , following his presentation.About HeclaEstablished in 1891, Hecla Mining Company has distinguished itself as the largest and lowest cash cost silver producer in the U.S. The company has two operating mines and exploration properties in four world-class silver mining districts in the U.S. and Mexico.
Ravenswood restart increasingly likely: analystswww.amm.com by Suzy Waite on March 2, 2012
http://www.amm.com/Article/2988490/Ravenswood-restart-increasingly-likely-analysts.html“The economics of electricity are more attractive because of cheap natural gas prices,” according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.However, the company needs more than a competitive power agreement-it also needs sustainably high aluminum prices, which Tumazos said might be a challenge until aluminum stocks at London Metal Exchange-listed warehouse-currently more than 5 million tonnes-come down”The power agreement to restart output, whether natural gas or coal, and the actual decision to restart output, are likely to depend on market conditions,” he (Tumazos) said. “The warehouses are the next hurdle, and my sense is that Century will wait until inventories fall.”
USS confirms Serbia sale, to record $400 M+ charge
www.amm.com by Michael Cowden http://www.amm.com/pdf/AMMDaily01-31-12.pdf?LS=EMS609149U.S. Steel’s facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge. “you could ship south Greece, but Greece is dead.””The only good thing about losing $400 million to $450 million is that the first digit wasn’t a six or a seven instead.”–John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.
Xstrata Investors May BalkWall Street Journal February 7, 2012 by Dana Cimilluca http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577207292473999200.html?mod=googlenews_wsjJohn Tumazos, an investment adviser specializing in mining and metals in Holmdel, N.J., owns 19,000 shares of Xstrata. Like many shareholders in the Switzerland-based firm, he sees uncounted value in Xstrata’s status as an actual “dig-up-rocks” miner with premium assets, which he and others contrast to Glencore’s smaller mining portfolio and reliance on global trading operations.Mr. Tumazos said he is holding out for an exchange ratio of 4-to-1. “This deal is like the Super Bowl, except it’s going to go more than 60 minutes.”
USS confirms Serbia sale, will record chargewww.AMM.com by Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/2970097/USS-confirms-Serbia-sale-will-record-charge.htmlU.S. Steel’s facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge. “You could ship south to Greece, but Greece is dead.”
US Steel mum on Serbia venturePittsburgh Post Gazette by Len Boselovic”I don’t think Serbian politicians are better metallurgists than U.S. Steel,” said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., industry analyst. “It appears the Serbian government had a hard time swallowing the business decision to reduce output in the current climate.”
Alcoa gives positive aluminum outlookReuters.com by Steve James and Ernest Scheyderhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-alcoa-idUSTRE80826Z20120110“It’s never good to see a loss, but some of this could have been worse,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with VeryIndependentResearch.com.
Aluminum price dip may trigger buysAMM.com by Suzy Walte December 16, 2011″Take Century (Aluminum Co’s) Ravenswood (smelter in West Virginia). This would not be the perfect week to restart it, or to conclude a new power agreement,” John Tumazos, principal at Very Independent Research LLC told AMM.
Quadra Sale suggest bearish outlook: analystsAMM.com by Chris Prentice December 15, 2011http://www.amm.com/Article/2950065/Quadra-sale-suggests-bearish-outlook-analysts.html?ArticleId=2950065Others agreed. John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said he was not surprised by the deal. “This is probably a good deal, and analysts just don’t know it (yet),” Tumazos told AMM. “The management (at Quadra) obviously don’t believe the copper price is going to be as high as analysts believe. Maybe they are a little nervous about Europe and the U.S.”
Texas Rare Earth to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining ConferencePDF of release
Val d’Or mine shut down over safetyThe Montreal Gazette October 19, 2011 by Peter Kovenhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/gold+mine+shut+down+over+safety/5572996/story.html#ixzz1bKTvDmEt“My impression was that of the five mines Agnico built at once, Goldex was the one that hit the volume, the operating cost, the capital cost,” independent analyst John Tumazos said.
Rio Tinto selling aluminum assets in cost-cut moveOctober 18, 2011 by Suzy Walte www.Amm.comdownload pdf
Hall of Fame 49-John TumazosOctober 13, 2011 by Frances Denmark http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/2916773/AART/Hall-of-Fame-49-John-Tumazos.html?edit=true
US mart seen unlikely to nix stainless extraOctober 10, 2011 by Thorsten Schier www.Amm.com“In the past, when there were fixed prices, it was during years of low or no nickel price volatility. In periods of very high volatility, it’s an appropriate system,” according to John Tumazos, principal of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
Aluminum suppliers have upper hand for ’12September 6, 2011 by Suzy White www.Amm.comVery Independent Research LLC’s John Tumazos is more optimistic. “We don’t think countries doing badly in the world matter,” he said, predicting that global auto sales will break records of 74 million units or more this year.
USW workers say no to Allegheny Ludlum pacthttp://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11208/1163098-28-2.stm
Ludlum workers emphatically reject 4-year pacthttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/valleynewsdispatch/s_748499.html
ATI Changing stainless surcharge calculations“In the existing system, the customer always wins and the supplier always loses. In a rising (raw materials) market the stainless steel supplier with a 60-day lag sees a lot of orders, and then when the price falls the customers simply refuse to purchase and wait until the decline stops,” John Tumazos, principal of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said. “The most equitable system would reduce the lag to overnight pricing.”http://www.amm.com/Article/2856803/ATI-changing-stainless-surcharge-calculations.html
Steelworkers, ATI working on new contracthttp://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_739521.html
Galway Provides a Corporate Update on Progree of its Projectshttp://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=456551&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Galway-Provides-a-Corporate-Update-on-Progress-of-its-Projects
Augen Gold Engages John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions, LLC for Asset ValuationGLD PR 110426 Augen Gold Engages John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions LLC for Asset Valuation.pdf
JOHN TUMAZOS, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM, NEW JERSEY“All four businesses did well. That’s a bit unusual for everything to do well. But all four segments did better than any quarter last year, with alumina being almost twice the average quarter of last year.”Flat rolled could easily be squeezed by rising ingot prices. So it was particularly good that it had its best quarter in a while.”Primary (aluminum) in March was better than in December, and should improve much more. Ingot should be a good bit better in the second quarter than the first, and alumina is indexed to ingot. So the company should be happy in the outlook on their conference call.”Reuters.com 4/11/2011
VIP confab might legitimize ignored miners: Wits, Revetthttp://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Mar/25/West-Africa-mining-prospector-stocks-could-surge-n
Renco mill restart plan stirs market concerns

http://www.amm.com/Article/2780008/Renco-mill-restart-plan-stirs-market-concerns.htmlJohn Tumazos, principal of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., offered a similar view, pointing out that the flat-rolled market has strengthened, buoyed by increased production and demand from the automotive sector.”I think it’s very encouraging that automotive sales were up 27 percent in February to 13.4 million units,” he said. “That (unit figure) is still 20 percent below pre-recession levels. What you have then is a market that is smaller against capacity that is increasing. It’s (capacity from RG Steel) a competing presence against capacity coming online from ThyssenKrupp and others. It looks like a deconsolidation of companies that were put together in 2006, 2007 and 2008.”
ATI announces its president to take over as chief executive
By Joe Napsha, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_725135.html
ATI Ceo Hassey to retire May 1
By Len Boselovic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11060/1128718-28.stm
Deep Possibilities
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL. Published Saturday February 26, 2011
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204395804576162552443416210.html?ru=yahoo&mod=BOL_hpp_latestticker
John Tumazos, a longtime metals analyst who operates John Tumazos Very Independent Research, notes Xstrata trades at a 10% discount to its coal and copper assets, leaving its fixed-asset development investments and other mineral groups essentially free. Tumazos recently raised his price target on Xstrata to $33 a share from $28, based on a discounted cash-flow model. That would represent a 50% increase from the $21.90 its shares recently fetched in New York. The shares trade primarily in London under the ticker XTA.
US steel exports forecast to rise on weak dollar, demand surge
By Maria Guzzo, February 16, 2011John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., told AMM the December pullback ma y have been a factor of higher prices.”When domestic mills raise prices sky high, imports rise and exports fall,” he said. “So December appeared to be beginning to show that effect with a 100,000-ton increase in imports and a 100,000-ton decrease in exports.”
First Coverage Article
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Barron’s ArticlePDF Download
Instant view: Alcoa Q4 profits tops Wall Streethttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7095VZ20110110?pageNumber=2 January 10, 2011JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT OF VERYINDEPENDENT RESEARCH IN HOLMDEL, NEW JERSEY”What really knocked my socks off was when they said they’re projecting 12 percent demand growth for 2011. I don’t think there’s enough aluminum in the world…””In order to get a 12 percent growth rate in 2011, the world auto industry would have to be very strong, and each region of the world would have to be very strong. China would have to have enough electricity to make aluminum and use aluminum, and construction would need to recover in various regions: stay strong in China, and rebound in the U.S.””The (beverage) cans are never going to grow that much, unless somebody starts drinking really hard somewhere in the world.”
USS, Kobe commit $400 M to Pro-TecBy Corinna Petry www.AMM.com December 2, 2010John Tumazos, analyst of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel and Kobe to have, at the very least, “a strong assurance from an important customer that they will pay them more for high-quality heat treating. You don’t spend $400 million on a wink and a nod.”

Teck press release speaking on November 9, 2010 at JTVIR Metals ConferencePress Release
Klondex To Review Nevada High-Grade Gold Program at Tumazos Metals & Mining Conference Wednesday, November 10th at 2:20 P.M.
Press Release
Letter to the Editor: SDCO outlay much ado about nothing
www.AMM.com
Hans Mueller July 26, 2010Brebach and John Tumazos (senior analyst at Very Independent Research LLC) have pointed out why John Correnti’s SDCO project is too insignificant to deserve congressional attention
Iron ore surcharge said failing to gain traction
www.AMM.com
By Scott Robertson July 16, 2010Analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research said that AK has a history of “tedious negotiations with GM. It has happened that way many times. U.S. Steel and (Arcelor)Mittal, for whatever reason, have not had that problem.”Tumazos believes that surcharges, first floated in stainless steel and then instituted by carbon steel mini-mills in April 2004 to deal with fluctuating scrap costs, eventually will be a thing of the past.”It is possible that for both good and bad reasons surcharges either confuse or eventually lose credibility with customers,” he said. “The concept of surcharges has been wearing itself out with customers.” He referred to remarks by an executive of Bloomfield, Colo.-based packaging company Ball Corp., who once referred to aluminum can makers as “that thin strip of meat” between aluminum companies and consumers.”Similarly, I believe the steel business is maybe a slightly thicker strip of meat between the three iron ore producers and the large auto companies like Toyota and GM,” Tumazos said. “If the ore and coal companies go to quarterly contracts and the mini-mills are adjusting monthly for scrap, the integrated mills will need to not have long-term fixed contracts like they had in the ’80s.”They’ll need to adjust quickly, whether they call it a surcharge or not, he said. “In fact, it might be better not to call it a surcharge, because such a word has worn out the patience of customers.”
Alcoa
Reuters.com July 12, 2010
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC”The results were a little better than expected. Each of their four reporting segments did well. It appeared in particular that their capital spending and cost-reduction programs were working smoothly. None of the four segments dropped the ball.”
Letter to the Editor: SOCO will create American jobs, boost US tax revenues
www.amm.com by John C Tumazos July 7, 2010full report
Cliffs buying met coal assets in West Virginiawww.amm.com by Maria Guzzo July 6, 2010John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said what Cliffs has doing in acquiring chromite ores in Canada is “brilliant,” but he is less excited about the INR purchase. “It’s a complicated set of variables,” he said, including a mix of met and thermal coal, the relatively small current coal production and the ratio of production to reserves. “But there may be more here th an meets the eye.”
Latrobe Specialty Steel said mulling IPO within next 2 yearswww.amm.com by Maria Guzzo June 24, 2010John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said Latrobe is a smaller company than Carpenter Technology Corp., Haynes International Inc. or Allegheny Technologies Inc., all of which also produce specialty metals.”Trading near $36 (per share on Thursday), Carpenter Technologies is well below its peak 2007 valuation of $75 per share or mid-range 2006-07 values near $60 per share,” he said. “Probably Latrobe is worth something similarly less than peak values similar to Carpenter Technologies.”
Noranda slashes IPO share price on weak aluminum marketwww.amm.com by Anne Riley May 13, 2010The decision by Noranda’s majority owner, New York-based investment fund Apollo Management LP, to reduce the size of the offering may have done the stock a disservice, said John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.”It doesn’t communicate vitality that they cut the price 44 percent,” he said. “It’s a sign of weakness and it suggests some discomfort, like they don’t have confidence in their electricity supplier or maybe they don’t like the bauxite and alumina business that Century (Aluminum Corp.) paid them $10 million to take. It’s not a good sign when your partner pays you $10 million to take (an asset). My hunch is that something in this transaction gives Apollo indigestion.”
Apollo unlikely to face antitrust hurdles
www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 7, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that as long as Apollo isn’t Aleris’ primary owner, there shouldn’t be a problem. “A reasonable defense that Apollo could mount is that Apollo no longer controls Aleris after the bankruptcy filing, that Aleris is controlled by a bankruptcy judge or at least reports to one, and that the ownership of Aleris is transferred to the creditors. So the antitrust objection is not a strong one,” he said. “Apollo is part of the pie but they’re no longer the whole pie.”
Noranda public offering doubt as stock market tumbleswww.amm.com By Anne Riley May 7, 2010John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that the market is no longer prime for a Noranda IPO. “The financial markets are in a collapse led by cyclical stocks,” he said. “Let’s just say (the number of possible) investors are going down 3 percent a day because the stock market is going down 3 percent a day. I would expect that the majority of their appointments are getting canceled.”
Analysts: Slumping demand why Franklin paper mill closingwww.istockanalyst.com by Philip Walzer April 11 ,2010John Tumazos, who runs Very Independent Research in New Jersey, isn’t so sure.”I don’t think that ‘hope’ was a business alternative,” Tumazos said last week, “but I think there’s a choice.”
Apollo seen as main contender for Alcan rolled assets
www.amm.com By David Brooks April 16, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, raised similar concerns. “I don’t think the business is particularly flush with cash to go out and make a big acquisition,” he previously told AMM.
Vale Inco strike could linger despite union pact, higher nickel priceswww.amm.com By Tom Jennemann April 9, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said the office staff labor deal won’t impact the position of production workers.
Alcoa to demolish two idled aluminum smelters in US
www.amm.com By Anne Riley April 6, 2010″Electricity and fuel are cyclical, so when the (smelters) were idled the company may have held out a hope that a better opportunity could occur to bring them back,” according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “I would imagine .?.?. that they have been hoping that circumstances would change, which hasn’t transpired.”
Novelis is free to enter aerospace, but will it?
www.amm.com By Anne Riley March 8, 2010″There have been over-expansions,” John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said.
SSAB scales down plant for Alabama
www.amm.com By Corinna Petry February 11, 2010John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the classic application for QT plate is to transmit natural gas from Alaska and Canada to the lower 48 states.”Because of the natural gas surplus in the U.S. and the huge reserves found in (oil shale fields in) West Virginia, New York, Penn sylvania, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, there is a chance that these (trans-Canadian) pipelines don’t get built or not as quickly,” he said. In addition, electricity use in the United States last year “was 4.7 percent less than in 2007, so the use of natural gas and coal for power generation has diminished.”
Instant View: Alcoa reports narrower loss
www.reuters.com Monday Jan 11, 2010
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60A54O20100111

JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM”It was a bit surprising that they broke even excluding the 28-cent charges. They say they had special charges, and if you take that out they nearly broke even including discontinued operations.”It appears that costs rose faster than prices. Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going for them.”
Update 3- Alcoa misses street estimate shares fallMonday Jan 11, 2010 by Steve James www.reuters.com http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1115520120100112

“It appears that costs rose faster than prices,” said John Tumazos, president of veryindependentresearch.com.”Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going (up) for them.
Thompson Creek raises cost estimates for EndakoAMM.com by Anne Riley December 7, 2009

John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said it was unlikely that Sojitz would pull out of the project.”Sojitz just contributed C$180 million ($170.9 million) to buy 25 percent of the Gibraltar mine from Taseko Mines (Ltd.), so I’m assuming that Sojitz knows the Endako expansion was contemplated and is prepared for it. I don’t think Sojitz is a risk,” he said. Sojitz bought the stake in the Gibraltar copper and molybdenum mine last week
Century to restart construction of Iceland smelter
AMM.com November 19, 2009NEW YORK — Century Aluminum Co. is set to restart construction at its greenfield smelter in Helguvik, Iceland, in the spring of 2010 and is targeting first production by 2012, a top executive said.Work at the Helguvik smelter site was effectively put on hold late last year due to tightening credit markets, low aluminum prices and the collapse of the Icelandic economy. Conditions in the credit and aluminum markets have since improved and Century is prepared to proceed with full-scale construction, Mike Bless, chief financial officer, said at a Metals and Mining investor conference in New York hosted by Knight Capital Group Inc. and John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, according to a Webcast of the event.Monterey, Calif.-based Century plans to build the smelter in four phases of 90,000 tonnes each, for a final annual capacity of 360,000 tonnes. The first phase will cost about $600 million, according to Bless.
Aluminum price rally may drive Century to restart RavenswoodAMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009

Independent analyst John Tumazos said he found the ta lk of a Ravenswood restart surprising. “I would have thought it more logical to restart the idled line at Hawesville (Ky.) if there were to be a first step at Century,” he said.Although today’s lower energy input prices and possible union concessions could mean an improvement in Ravenswood’s costs, the plant might bring in the most money for Century if it were to be sold, Tumazos said.”The Ravenswood plant is a much more formidable asset empty and cold without a work force. If they let it sit five years and sold it to some new company with no obligation to a labor contract and start fresh, it would in my opinion be the fullest value of the asset,” he said, estimating that the plant, “sold cold,” could bring in some $300 million.
Noranda profitable as output climbsAMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009Another challenge in store for Noranda is the profusion of new aluminum capacity expected to enter the global market next year, sources said. According to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, the world could see some 10 percent more smelter output, or an increase of some 1.5 million tonnes, in 2010, which could put some strain on higher-cost Western producers.”If you get subs tantial restarts in the U.S. and Europe, where production has been reduced, then you need a higher threshold, more than 10-percent demand growth, to keep inventories even, just even,” Tumazos said.
Ohio politician hints at interest in some Severstal NA plantsAMM.com by Scott Robertson October 23, 2009Independent analyst John Tumazos is one who believes there is potential in Severstal’s North American operations, perhaps with the conversion of some facilities into merchant pig iron producers.In a recent research note, he characterized reports by AMM and others claiming “sales book” offers for the Russian steelmaker’s five North American mills as “sensational,” adding that “some commentary appears to exaggerate (the) potential demise” of Severstal.”We believe Severstal has numerous fine financing alternatives should the current recession grow worse, including (a) selling more public common stock in the Severstal parent, (b) an IPO (initial public offering) of Severstal Resources, (c) an IPO of Severstal North America, (d) selected asset sales or (e) a hybrid format of the four U.S. integrated plants between sheet and merchant pig iron strategies,” Tumazos said, estimating that Severstal’s 8 million tons of pig iron capacity, 4 million tons of coatings capacity, its Columbus, Miss., electric furnace mill and coal, coke and corrugating are worth $5 billion.
Despite Positive results Alcoa faces challengesAMM.com by Anne Riley 10/8/2009

John Tumazos an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, also pointed to currency fluctuations as a key factor for Alcoa. “Alcoa’s break-even point appeared to rise 3 to 5 cents a pound in the third quarter due to the appreciation of their production cost currencies,” he said. “I think Alcoa is doing everything diligent and wonderful but they can’t control the Australian dollar,” which has shot up recently against the greenback.
What Stimulus?American Metal Market by Maria Guzzo October 2009John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ, was even less optimistic that ARRA will benefit the steal industry. “Any expectation of a substantial impact on particular steel shapes or products probably won’t be fulfilled,” he said. “I think most of these initiatives are going to get crowded out by various social welfare programs and the need to pay schoolteachers, policemen, firemen, and government officials,” Tumazos said.
Metals complex holds aluminum backAMM.com by Anne Riley September 29, 2009

“There was never a shortage of aluminum this decade,” said John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “There always was a large amount in LME warehouses, where copper, nickel, lead and zinc almost fell to zero.”Granted, some of that metal is locked up in financing deals-as much as 90 percent, according to some accounts-but regardless, “the aluminum exists,” Tumazos said. “It surprises me that people are so cavalier to how quickly 5 million tonnes will disappear.”
Always on the MendAmerican Metal Market August/September 2009 issue byTom JennemannJohn Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLc, told AMM that extruders likely will have only about two thirds of the business they had before the industry’s downturn.
From the Associated Press July 8, 2009John Tumazos, an industry analyst, said of Alcoa’s latest results: “They did good.”The company lost considerably less money on ventures in China and Russia than in the past, and it gathered contributions from operations in Iceland and Norway, he said. Alcoa should have a positive cash flow in the third quarter, Tumazos added.
TK may cancel plans to melt stainless in Ala.www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo July 8, 2009″The latter case would be great news for ATI, AK or Acerinox (NAS),” John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J., said. “In this scenario, ThyssenKrupp would be content to operate Mexinox in San Luis Potosi (Mexico) as a standalone unit, accepting stainless hot-rolled coil from Europe, without any U.S. link.”
Steelmakers face battle as antitrust suit proceedswww.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo June 16, 2009Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos also expects the steel litigation to take years, noting that the steel case resembles one in the container board industry where similar coincidental production cuts were made
Steel output rise sign of life, but will it last?
www.AMM.com by Scott Robertson June 12, 2009John Tumazos, analyst at Independent Research LLC, said several factors appear to be in play in pushing utilization rates higher. He cited the recent upward move in crude oil prices to again breach $70 per barrel, a move that should spark increased oil drilling activity. And steel inventories in general have been reduced over the past several months, leading service center customers to increase orders slightly in recent weeks, he said.
US aluminum output dips further in May

www.AMM.com by June 10, 2009But U.S. aluminum output still has further to fall, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC. “A 37-percent cut in U.S. aluminum output is a deep, deep cut, but autos and housing are down even more. They’re going to have to cut further unless all of a sudden auto sales and housing figures rebound,” he said, noting that such a turnaround is quite unlikely in the near-term.
Cliff’s buffered from pellet tag drop: analystswww.AMM.com by Mick Bowen June 10, 2009

John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, pointed out the two steel markets that primarily use pellets-North America and Europe-are also the two markets where output was hardest hit by the economic crisis. In the United States, for exampl e, the capability utilization rate averaged 47.1 percent last week compared with 91.1 percent in the corresponding week last year, according to numbers from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AMM, June 10).
Lower demand imperils domestic steelmakers: Analysts predict permanent closure of some U.S. millshttp://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09156/975244-28.stm The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Len Boselovic June 5, 2009Analyst John C. Tumazos, of Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., forecasts U.S. mills will ship 57 million tons this year, down from 98 million last year and 106 million in 2007.
China Probes Imports of U.S. Steelhttp://online.wsj.com/search?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mod=DNH_S By Kris Maher June 2, 2009″I’m assuming that the prices into China were new sales at spot prices that were escalating,” said John Tumazos, a metals analyst who heads Very Independent Research LLC.
“Buy American” among factors limiting importswww.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 29, 2009

“There is very low domestic demand for steel. Second, when the demand transitions to stimulus programs, they will be ‘Buy America’ (orders) and not imported. Third, domestic prices have been falling,” independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said. “I believe that high domestic steel prices cause imports and, as domestic mill operating rates remained in the low 40 (percent range), prices fell enough to discourage imports.”
Cliffs’ iron ore contract prices seen falling 10%AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 29, 2009According to John Tumazos, a steel analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, the structure of the local steel market and its recent woes mean the international negoti ations will have little direct impact on North America.
US aluminum demand still feeling for bottom
www.AMM.com by Tom Jennemann May 12, 2009John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said that aluminum demand is about the same as it was last month. “The packaging portion of the aluminum market is stable but the auto market was down 34 percent in April and construction activity is poor,” Tumazos said. “Also, virtually no money has flowed from the federal programs. It’s sad that the exchange inventories rise 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes every day. Aluminum companies need to cut production more, unfortunately.”
Credit pains to linger; plan well, metals toldwww.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo May 8, 2009

Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said he was impressed that U.S. Steel raised twice as much as originally intended, and they did it in 24 hours.”Commercial banks are still sucking their thumbs, but stock market money is coming off the sidelines,” he said. “Money can be obtained from public or private stock and bond sales. But the commercial lending area from banks is still difficult.”
Analysts applaud Nyrstar’s Tenn. buy
AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 6, 2009
Steel distributor Certified set to go solar at N.J. plantwww.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 5, 2009
ISRI CONVENTION: Commodities boom masked aluminum glut, Tumazos saysAMM.com by Michael MArley May 1, 2009Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, criticized aluminum producers outside of China, saying they produced more metal than Western markets needed. “The aluminum producers misjudged demand and built capacity to serve phantom buyers,” he said.
ArcelorMittal tries EU price freeze, expects stable May

Platts Steel Markets Daily by Julien Hall with Joe Innace in New York April 16, 2009“This is humorous,” said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research. “A supplier ‘price freeze’ in a very strong market, such as one to three years ago, is enforceable as it would be a form of ‘self restraint,’ he wrote in an e-mail to Platts.
“A supplier ‘price freeze’ with world steel output down about 23%, or nearly 50% outside China, is a little bit like trying to stop the flow of Niagara Falls,” he quipped.
Aluminum market continues to falter
amm.com by Tom Jennemann April 14, 2009But the month-on-month increase is somewhat deceptive as it’s based on a calendar month and isn’t adjusted for the actual number of working days. It is also the normal seasonal pattern for demand to improve sequentially as winter ends, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC.
Steel import, export price indicies dropAmm.com by Corinna Petry April 9, 2009″Imports and exports of everything, not just steel, are falling worldwide because there is less need for trade in a recession as countries are more self reliant and less willing to buy,” said independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos. “High prices cause imports, (but domestic steel prices have fallen to around $400 per ton for many products) so now steel imports are relatively low-1.5 million tons per month or less-because domestic producers have cut prices.”
Alcoa reports $497M loss in 1Q on lower pricesAssociated Press April 7, 2009 by Daniel Lovering http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EARNS_ALCOA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULTAnalysts point to the excess supplies of aluminum worldwide and say further production cuts are needed to match falling orders. Industry analyst John Tumazos said the actual market decline will be twice as much as Alcoa projected.
6 months after USW deal, steel is in a slumpPittsburgh Post-Gazette by Leo Boselovic http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09088/958881-435.stm
Alcoa unveils new cuts, changes margin policyAmerican Metal market by tom Jenneman Mar 16, 2009 http://amm.com/2009-03-16__17-16-36.html

“When aluminum prices were higher and margins big, there may have been a tendancy to provide a lot of services free or, in this case, provide credit or hedging support,” said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC.
Aluminum sheet, plate shipments inch higherAmerican Metal market by Tom Jennemann March 3, 2009

That optimism wasn’t shared by analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, who said that it would be premature to assume that a month-on-month uptick in January’s sheet and plate shipments signals a bottom for aluminum demand.
DLA seeks better steel ‘Warstopper’ responseAmerican Metal Market by Mick Bowen March 9, 2009John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said the DLA letter nay be nothing out of the ordinary. “I don’t think they’ve run out of anything,” he said. “None of the basic large volume industrial materials are in low supply and we have the prices to show that’s true.”
USS’ Minntac Mine set for hit, III. cuts growAmerican Metal Market by Mick Bowen

“It’s an unfortunate and natural response to end markets,” independent steel analyst John Tumazos said, citing a 50-percent drop in car manufacturing and an 80-percent fall in new housing starts, among other factors.
Parts makers may not suffer full impact of auto cutbacksAmerican metal Market by Anne Riley http://www.amm.com/2009-02-18__18-04-34.html

“If it’s a transplant vehicle, most of the steel and components will be American. we’re really talking about how the pie is divided and how much of the sales the Big Three lose,” independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said.
Aluminum picks up old script with talk of MoUAmerican Metal Market By Tom Jennemann http://www.amm.com/2009-02-05__16-59-35.html

“The MoU approach may be the only solution to the aluminum mess,” said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. “It solved the problem 15 years ago and the inventories on commodity exchanges are 700,000 tonnes higher today than they were at the peak in 1994, when you factor in (the) Shanghai (futures exchange) and Comex (division of the New York Mercantile exchange)”
AMM State of Steel ’09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrexhttp://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=337122
AMM State of Steel ’09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrex

American Metal Market by Michael Bowen http://www.amm.com/2009-01-26__14-22-05.htmlAnalyst John Tumazos from Very Independent Research, LLC said blast furnace operators would turn to high grade iron ore in a market currently characterized by lower prices and higher surpluses. “The usage per ton will fall as the grade improves,” he said, adding that shipping less ore translates into lower freight costs, while using higher-grade ore lowers coal and coke use and improves blast furnace productivity.
Freeport-McMoran results top view, shares upReuters by Steve James http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/reuters/MTFH75123_2009-01-26_16-12-03_N26370152.htm“When purchase accounting values are written off they never get written back,” said independent metals analyst John Tumazos. “So, what they wrote off today will never come back.”
Thompson Creek may be mulling buy: analystsAmerican Metal Market by Mick Bowen http://amm.com/2008-12-05__15-30-54.htmlIndependent analyst John Tumazos said there was a chance Thompson Creek could use cash on hand to acquire any one of a half dozen molybdenum projects, but added it was just as likely the company hold on to it in case the price of molybdenum got worse. Molybdenum oide is currently selling for $9 to 410 a pound, while it averaged $30 a pound in 2007 and $33 a pound in the first nine months of this year.
Alcoa Searches for Fresh Start in Troubled MarketWall Street Journal Wed. December 3, 2008 page B4. by Robert Guy MathewsJohn Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research, said the company has few good options as its influence in the commodity world is nowhere as sure as it once was. “They need to idle more smelters than they have cut,” he said.
(BN) Freeport Cuts Molybdenum Output on `Sharp’ Price DropBy Stewart Bailey
Smaller nickel miners facing an uphill road
By Michael Cowden October 28, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-28__18-37-45.html Independent analyst John Tumazos also doubted there would be a wave of consolidation, but said smaller producers could become insolvent and eventually fail. “Nobody in the nickel business makes money at $4.50 a pound,” he said.
Nickel premiums steady despite lullBy Michael Cowden October 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-24__17-15-45.htmlIndependent mining analyst John Tumazos said current prices don’t justify energy and chipping costs in many cases. however, LME stockpiles amount to less than 3 percent of world usage, he pointed out, adding that many stainless steelmakers have been destocking since the second half of 2006.
NY group is kicking tires at former McLouth SteelBy Michael Cowden October 16, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-16__17-44-48.htmlStill, despite all the economic gloom and doom, the site’s infrastructure and potentially generous government incentives could make restarting the former mill a good idea, independent industry analyst John Tumazos said.
Delay in Rio asset sale to bolster BHP bidBy Tom Jennemann October 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-15__18-31-08.html

But not everyone sees the divestment delay as a negative for the Anglo-Australian mining giant. “The drop in oil prices almost cuts resin feedstock costs in half. Whatever the packaging business was worth on July 3 as oil peaked, it’s probably worth 25 percent more today because their profit margins should be much larger because the squeezes are alleviated,” said independent metals analyst John tumazos. “Delaying the sale because of finanical markets could be clever and a sign of strength and not weakness, particularly as it relates to the packaging (unit).”
Analysts mixed on financial crisis impact on steel M&AsBy Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-07__10-38-35.html

Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon. “Steelmakers just got kicked out of ‘paradise’,” he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
Surma, Mital optimistic on M&As; investors notBy Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-07__16-48-14.xml

Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon. “Steelmakers just got kicked out of ‘paradise’,” he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
Output cuts widen as mills react to slowdownBy Scott Robertson October 3, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-03__16-53-34.xml

The lack of steel orders is a cause for concern among mills as they eye production cuts, according to John Tumazos, principal for Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
SDI mulling flat-roll mill, may target auto: BusseBy Scott Robertson September 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-09-15__17-41-50.html

“SDI earns slightly better margins and returns than its competitors,” John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said. “there is always room for the best player,” he added.
Labor deal “expensive” for U.S. SteelBy Scott Robertson August 25, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-25__19-29-35.html

John Tumazos analyst at Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J. said investors may be calculating that growth in other steel production is about to slow due to a drop in global demand. there is some evidence that tightness in the market for steelmaking could be easing, he said.
USW-ArcelorMittal talks halt; strike said unlikelyBy Maria Guzzo Aug 11, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-11__19-49-46.htmlThe cost of steel these days could also impact market movements, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.
SeverCorr shift in scrap mix a “natural” processBy Michael Cowden August 6, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-06__19-14-33.html

No. 1 bundles and No. 1 busheling prices currently stand at a premium to other grades of steel scrap in the United States and steel mills could be using other grades to avoid the high tags, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
ArcelorMittal said eyeing Alpha bid trumping CliffsBy Maria Guzzo August 1, 2008 http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-08-01__21-00-28.xml

“ArcelorMittal has expressed a goal to be more self-sufficient in metallurgical coal and iron ore,” John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said. “It may be that Mittal considers Alpha to be much more attractive than the typical met coal opportunity around the globe.
Teck’s $13.8B deal to buy Fording Feeds M&A feverBy Maria Guzzo July 29, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-29__19-35-57.htmlSteelmakers worldwide will be largely unaffected because the existing combination of ownership of supply and management will be maintained, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.
Cliffs risks going from hunter to buyout targetBy Maria Guzzo July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-07-25__20-24-08.xmlAnalyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said he, too, understands Harbinger’s actions. “Shareholders own pieces of paper and sometimes they just assume the piece of paper is going to be the same,” he said. “It’s always possible investors at Harbinger thought they were buying mostly into iron ore and weren’t expecting $10 billion worth of coal.”
Mine start-ups might be least of nickel’s worriesBy Darcy Keith July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-25__20-25-14.html“There are a number of places around the world where the existing production should not be taken for granted,” said analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=attGHLC37ww8download
Correnti Departs in Severcorr Reshuffle
Febuary 2008 edition of American Metal marketsteel industry analyst John Tumazos said the move raised several questions. “There’s more that we don’t know than we do know,” he said. “We would like to think that everyone would be fairly rewarded.”
John Tumazos interview with The Gold Report transcriptDownload Document
HudBay dives into nickel via Skye buyBy Darcy Keith June 24, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-06-24__21-39-44.htmlFenix contains proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.63-percent nickel, which, according to John Tumazos of Very independent Research, LLC, represents two to three years of world consumption. “The deposit is massive. I think the offer is low and is favorable to HudBay and a little light to Skye.?Misquote: “proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million”
Correction: 11 billion lb of ni resources or 5 mmt contained NI resources.
Esmark smells profit, says Severstal offer falls short
By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-12__19-42-34.htmlThe primary concern of Esmark’s board should be finding the best deal for shareholders and making sure “the $17 or $19 check clears,” analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLc, Holmdel, N.J. said.
Vale sparks takeover talk with $15B Share offering
By Roberta Pregnaca, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-10__19-33-15.htmlAlcoa has more downstream exposure and might not be such a good fit with Vale’s core competence, according to analyst John Tumazos, owner of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
Galway seeks steel partner for N.M. mineBy Sean Barry, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-05__19-58-37.html“It’s a big-time discovery and my job is to figure out the best way to maximize the value of this project,” Tumazos said. “we’re looking at possibly bringing in a steel company as a partner similar to what General Moly Inc. has done. We’re also looking at bringing in financial partners.”
Severstal’s Esmark bid might be hard to beatBy Scott Robertson, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-05-30__20-03-28.html

“If Franklin is backing Severstal, then it’s a done deal,” said John Tumazos, analyst at john Tumazos Very Independent Research, Holmdel N.J. “Presumably, Franklin is a knowledgeable shareholder as a large institution. If they are backing Severstal that should get it done.”
GM truck, SUV cutbacks could trickle upstreamBy Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-04-29__20-03-26.html

The real problem for the steel industry is not declining auto sales, but supply constraints of raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, according to john Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Holmdel, NJ.
Esmark deal pales next to old W-P bid
By Scott Paterson, American Metal market http://amm.com/com/2008-05-01__15-47-28.html“The market got better, but (Wheeling-Pittsburgh’s) operations got worse,” analyst John Tumazos said. “The problem with comparing this offer to CSN’s is that things change over time. Wheeling-Pitt installed the electric-arc furnace (at Mingo Junction, Ohio) and it obviously is not working properly based on their financial numbers. But even forgetting those numbers, it’s better to sell early. CSN would have brought in slabs that would have bypassed those molten steel operations.”
NC Legal Blog
http://womblencappellate.blogspot.com/2008/04/coa-holds-that-stock-analysts-report.html Nucor loses appeal in libel suitgsrg – nucor loses appeal vs Tumazos 4-24-08.pdf
Nucor Loses Bid to Reinstate Libel Lawsuit Against Prudential
by Linda Sandler (Bloomberg)
http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/News/news_story.txt
Full Story
Jury set in Nucor secrets case; libel suit shot down
American Metal market
htp://amm.com/2008-04-24__19-15-45.html
ATI Stock Climbs on Rumors about takeover by U.S. Steel
American Metal Market,
by Maria Guzzo: April 7, 2008
http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-04-07__18-51-50.xml
John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. said he did not see how either company would benefit from such a combination. He said he didn’t believe U.S. Steel would but ATI as U.S. Steel is seeking “bolt-on” extensions with large synergies to existing U.S. iron ore, sheet, and tube or East European sheet units.
Skye resources to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008
2008-03-25 JTVIR Announcement.pdf
Duluth Metals to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008
http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp
Taseko Mines to present at JTVIR Metals Conference
http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/newsreleases.asp?reportid=292166
Dofasco sues for iron ore mine
By Naomi Powell The Hamilton Spectator March 14, 2008 page A16Dofasco.doc
Tumazos Sees Global Economic `Boom’ on Low Rates
Mar. 11 (Bloomberg)
— John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research LLC, spoke yesterday with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene from Holmdel, New Jersey, about commodity prices, the gold market and the global economy.weblink
Interview with John Tumazos
htttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir/video.html
Hot-roll band prices surge to new highs: Benchmarker
American metal Market
by Maria Guzzo
http://amm.com/2008-02-13__19-25-29.htmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the price hikes “reflect December/ January scrap cost increases, which mills are now trying to recover with a time lag after the fact.”
Century Aluminum Sunday
(Charleston, WV) Gazette-Mail
Sunday Feb 3, 2008
“Century has to face the numbers” By George HohmanChief Operating Officer Wayne Hale said in September that alumina accounts for 37 percent of Ravenswood’s costs; electricity, 26 percent; labor, 16 percent; carbon, 8 percent; and other raw materials, 12 percent. John Tumazos, an independent analyst, said Ravenswood’s expenses are in the ballpark when compared to others.
U.S. Steel to raise production at Stelco facilities
American Metal Markets
By Michael Cowden
http://amm.com/2008-02-04__15-44-12.html
One industry analyst said the depreciating dollar was a concern. It is unclear whether U.S. Steel will earn suitable returns from Stelco unless exchange rates change, according to John C. Tumazos, head of John Tumazos Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
SSAB said in talks to divest Ipsco’s tubular operations
American Metal Market
by Michael Cowden
Feb 4, 2008.
http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-02-04__20-42-29.xml
”The price SSAB paid was very generous,” said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ. And SSAB might be “very Happy” to exit a product line or two in order to reduce debt and capital employed, especially in the face of turmoil in the credit markets, he said.
Alcoa awaits BHP decision as Rio offer deadline looms
American Metal Market by Mathew Lerner
http://amm.com/2008-02-05__19-02-19.html
Feb 5, 2008
Alcoa could be taking a two-track approach, according to John C. Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LC, Holmdel, NJ. Alcoa owns only 9 percent of the stake it purchased with Chinalco, meaning it directly controls no more than 1 percent of Rio stock. Alcoa might swap that stake for a specific asset or flip it later at a profit, he said.
USS reportedly eyeing Bulgaria mill acquisition
American Metal Market
http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-15-40.html
By Maria Guzzo
”It makes sense to integrate it with Belgrade and Kosice into their system. Their advantage is defined as how efficient they could make them all.” said John Tumazos, head of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., who added that although he had heard nothing about the negotiations, such a purchase could be beneficial to the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.
Hot-roll band on strong drive in US, world export markets
American Metal Markets
http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-12-53.html
By Michael Cowden”Currency fluctuations could be partially accountable for the difference between U.S. and Chinese prices, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken while the Chinese Yuan strengthens, said John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. And, of course, low customer inventories are encouraging North American steelmakers to increase domestic market prices, he added.Tumazos speculated that world export prices might be rising as U.S. mills divert supplies away from export markets to long-standing distributor customers- a move that might at first glance appear counterintuitive, given strong prices abroad. “You can sell to the person you get the highest bid from, or you can go out and serve the customer who orders from every month,” he said.
Duluth Complex projects move forward
Article from The Northern Miner, Volume 93 Number 47, Jan 14-20, 2008″In a third-quarter conference call, Teck chief executive Don Lindsay told research analyst John Tumazos that there was “nothing material to report” on Mesaba, and that there “won’t be for some time.””
Alcoa’s Stint in the Minor Leagues
Tuesday January 29, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page C1By 2015, the Middle East smelters could produce aluminum 25% cheaper than Alcoa does now, says John Tumazos, who runs a metals-research concern called Very Independent Research. “It will be very difficult for Alcoa to compete,” he says.
Steel mat feel minimal recession fallout
Article from American Metal Market January 22, 2008
http://amm.com/2008-01-22__19-22-39.html
“The outlook for metal industries in general remains strong, according to John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ. Companies such as U.S. Steel and Nucor could even use the market downturn as an opportunity to buy back shares at bargain prices.”
Anglo American May Buy Brazil Projects
Friday January 18, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page 9″It is a coup that Anglo American is doing this deal,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC. “All the iron-ore producers of the world envy Vale’s spectacular resources in Brazil and would like to have something like it” He said the price is justified, given the entry into a rich market
SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs.
Article from American Metals Markets.
http://SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs

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