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DateTopicReport TitlePurchase Link
2/26/2024LPX 022624LOUISIANA-PACIFIC ENJOYS OSB PRICE, VOLUME OR SHARE BUYBACK UPSIDES BEYOND
OUR CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL MODELS; SIDING DESERVES LOW CO2 EMISSIONS PREMIUMS
2/26/2024Inventories Double 022424METALS INVENTORIES RISE, ESPECIALLY IN SHANGHAI WAREHOUSES OR
RUSAL ALUMINUM WITHIN LME WAREHOUSE SYSTEM
2/26/2024Gold Ind 022524GOLD INDUSTRY - - “TIER ONE” OBSESSION WITH SIZE EMBRACES RISKS AND DESTROYS
SHAREHOLDER CAPITAL
2/25/2024AA 022524ALCOA TO CONSOLIDATE OR ACQUIRE 40% PARTNER ALUMINA LTD
2/22/2024NEM 022424NEWMONT MINING “REVISED” OR ERASED 23.5 MM OZ OF GOLD IN YEAR-END 2023 RESERVE
AND NONRESERVE RESOURCES ACCOUNTING

2/202024First Quantum 022024FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS WRITES DOWN RAVENSTHORPE NICKEL IN
AUSTRALIA, BUT NOT COBRE PANAMA
2/20/2024Alum Ind 022024ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - WORLD SMELTER OUTPUT UP 2.4% IN JANUARY 2024 AFTER A 2.2%
RISE IN 2023
2/11/2024Steel Ind Electric Furnace 021124STEEL INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF FEB 5-9TH ASSN. IRON AND STEEL TECHNOLOGY
“MODERN ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE STEELMAKING”
2/7/2024NUE 020724NUCOR HAS CERTAIN VERY LOW VOLUMES; COMMENTS FROM VISIT TO BRANDENBURG, KY
NEW 1.2 M.T. PLATE MILL
2/11/2024Steel Ind Electric Furnaces 021124STEEL INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF FEB 5-9TH ASSN. IRON AND STEEL TECHNOLOGY
“MODERN ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE STEELMAKING”
2/7/2024NUCOR 020424NUCOR HAS CERTAIN VERY LOW VOLUMES; COMMENTS FROM VISIT TO BRANDENBURG, KY
NEW 1.2 M.T. PLATE MILL
2/5/2024Steel Ind Volume Trends 020524STEEL INDUSTRY - - THREE POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR TERRIBLE STEEL VOLUMES
1/29/2024Metals Expansions Vol 104 012924METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 104 JANUARY 44 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 12 DELAYS
1/25/2024FCX 012524FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. SEGMENT EARNINGS MOSTLY FROM GRASBERG, CERRO VERDE
AND MORENCI, WHERE REST OF U.S. MINES, MOLYBDENUM AND CHILE ARE “CALL OPTIONS”
1/24/2024STLD 012424STEEL DYNAMICS SELLING PRICES DIP TO $1,090 IN 4Q FROM $1,257 IN 2Q
1/22/2024`AA 012224ALCOA CUTS COSTS, AND SEEKS TO CUT COSTS MORE
1/18/2024Gold Ind 011824GOLD INDUSTRY - - CLAWBACK OF EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION AT
ENDEAVOUR MINING; MERGING VERSUS A STANDALONE FUTURE
1/11/2024PAAS Jacobina 011024PAN AMERICAN SILVER FAVORABLE HIGHLIGHTS FROM JACOBINA MINE VISIT IN BRAZIL
1/12/2024Barrick 011224BARRICK GOLD COMPARISON OF 3 OPPORTUNITIES ENDEAVOUR MINING,
FIRST QUANTUM AND 50% OF REKO DIQ
1/10/2024Cerrado Gold 011124CERRADO GOLD JANUARY 9TH VISIT TO MONTE DO CARMO GOLD DEPOSIT
IN TOCATINS, BRAZIL
1/9/2024PAAS models 010924PAN AMERICAN SILVER LA COLORADA SKARN PEA DEC. 18TH; INTEGRATED FINANCIAL
MODELS NPV WITHOUT PROJECTS
1/3/2024First Quantum 010324FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS TAKEOVER SPECULATION MAY BE ACCURATE
1/2/2024AEM 010224AGNICO-EAGLE MINES TEAM SPREAD THIN WITH SO MANY PROJECTS
12/31/2023Metals Expansions Vol 103 123123METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 103 DECEMBER 22 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 7 DELAYS
12/29/2023Chinese output records 122923DATA POINTS SUGGESTING GREATER STRENGTH TO CHINA’S ECONOMY
12/23/2023Steel Ind 122223WORLD STEEL OUTPUT STRENGTHENS IN NOVEMBER
12/18/2023X 121823U.S. STEEL WINS $55 CASH OFFER FROM NIPPON STEEL TO EXCEED OUR AUGUST 13TH
ESTIMATE OF $40 TO $55 PER SHAR VALUES BROKEN INTO 5 PIECES
12/18/2023Metals Interest rates 121623IN THE CONTEXT OF A 1.2% FALL IN THIRTY YEAR TREASURY YIELDS
12/14/2023OR 121423OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES SELLS STOCKHOLDINGS

12/13/2023Conf Highlights 121323HIGHLIGHTS OF DECEMBER 12-13, 2023 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SESSIONS
Conf Highlights Dec 12-13, 2023
12/8/2023Rio 120823RIO TINTO FACES GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES AMONG SIMANDOU JOINT
VENTURERS
RIO 120823
12/6/2023Rio 120623RIO TINTO ANNOUNCEMENT DESCRIBING SIMANDOU IRON ORE PROJECT RIO 120623
12/4/2023Steel Ind 120823STEEL INDUSTRY ENJOYS HIGH U.S. SHEET AND IRON ORE PRICES
WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF STRONG DEMAND
12/6/2023WOR and WS 120623WORTHINGTON STEEL AND WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES

12/4/2023First Quantum 120423FIRST QUANTUM “DUST SETTLES” AS A FULLY BUILT MINE SHUTDOWN
INVOLVES CONSIDERABLE DETAILS

11/30/2023Investor Letter 113023BALANCING LOW COST, HIGH CASH FLOWS AND A MANDATE FOR EARLY
STAGE MINERS WITH ASSETS IN THE GROUND
11/30/2023Metals Expansions Vol 102 113023METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 102 NOVEMBER 30 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 5 DELAYS LED
BY 11 LITHIUM PROJECTS ADVANCING
11/27/2023Metals 112623DICHOTOMOUS EXTREME DEVELOPMENTS BOTH GOOD AND BAD
11/20/2023Alum Ind Iceland 112023ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - - VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN ICELAND COULD
IMPACT 1% OF WORLD SMELTER SUPPLY
11/15/2023Champion Iron Ore visit 111423IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - VISIT TO CHAMPION IRON ORE IN LABRADOR
TROUGH NOVEMBER 13-14TH

11/12/2023Price, cost, margins in 3Q 111123PRICES RISE, BUT COSTS RISE MORE OVER 2021-23 YEARS TO SQUEEZE MARGINS
11/9/2023Share Buybacks 110923SHARE BUYBACK ACTIVITY IN 2021, 2022 AND 2023 AMONG MATERIALS
STOCKS
11/8/2023Alum Ind 110823ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - “STRATEGIC METALS” TAX CREDITS EQUAL TO
10% OF PRODUCTION COST FROM UNCLE SAM
11/8/2023LPX 110823LOUISIANA-PACIFIC ENJOYS OSB PRICE, VOLUME OR SHARE BUYBACK UPSIDES BEYOND
OUR CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL MODELS; SIDING DESERVES LOW CO2 EMISSIONS PREMIUMS

11/3/2023FCX 110323FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. NOTABLE TECHNICAL ACHIEVEMENTS, BUT EARNINGS ½ OF
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS DUE TO HIGHER MINORITY INTEREST, TAXES AND EXPENSES
11/1/2023First Quantum 110123FIRST QUANTUM FACES “BINARY OUTCOME,” FULL SHUTDOWN, IN
PANAMA
10/28/2023Metal Expansions Vol 101 102823METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 101 OCTOBER 22 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 8 DELAYS
10/27/2023Metals normal 102723A “NORMAL ECONOMY” INTEREST RATE INVESTMENT CLIMATE TILTS US
TO DEFENSIVE OR LOWEST COST STOCKS AWAY FROM HIGH COSTS
10/27/2023X 102723U.S. STEEL $2 BILLION 2024 EBITDA FORECAST IGNORED BY US DUE TO ADVERSE FISCAL AND
MONETARY POLICY AND EXAMPLE OF STLD TEXAS STARTUP WITH NO 2022-23 PROFITS
10/24/2023NUE 102423NUCOR CONTINUES RAPID CAPACITY EXPANSIONS DESPITE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC
HEADWINDS FROM HIGHER INTEREST RATES
10/23/2023Gold Ind 102323GOLD PRICE REBOUND ENTIRELY FROM RETAIL BUYING WITHOUT ETF
BUILDUP AND DESPITE FIRM U.S. DOLLAR
10/23/2023Metals demand 102223EVIDENCE OF DEMAND WEAKNESSES MORE THAN STRENGTH
10/16/2023WOR 101523WORTHINGTON STEEL AND WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES

10/12/2023Steel Ind 101223STEEL INDUSTRY SIGNS OF POOR PENDING 3Q AND 4Q RESULTS
10/9/2023x 100823 OKU.S. STEEL FACES MORE CHALLENGES FOR ASSET BUYERS WITH RISING INTEREST RATES,
NERVOUS FINANCIAL MARKETS AND LOWER HOT-ROLLED SHEET PRICES
10/4/2023WRK 100423WESTROCK RISK-REWARD DETERIORATES AS SMURFIT KAPPA PRICE
FELL, INTEREST RATES RISE AND SMURFIT KAPPA NEEDS 75% APPROVAL
10/11/2023Conf Highlights Copper and Silver 101123HIGHLIGHTS OF OCTOBER 11TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE FOR 5 COPPER AND
SILVER COMPANIES
10/10/2023Conf Highlights Royalties & Gold 101023CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER 10, 2023 ROYALTY AND GOLD
COMPANIES
10/1/2023Metals Expansions 093023METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 100 SEPTEMBER 31 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 5 DELAYS
9/30/2023Ratings Changes 092923STOCK RATING REVISIONS IN REACTIONS TO SHARE PRICE ACTIONS,
INTEREST RATES AND OUTLOOK
9/30/2023Alum Ind Energy Usage 093023ALUMINUM INDUSTRY ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND USAGE DATA

9/29/2023Alum Ind S-D 092923ALUMINUM INDUSTRY OUTPUT DATA REVISED UP, CHINESE OUTPUT
RECORD, LARGER APPARENT DEMAND & 4 GLOBAL EFFICIENCY SURVEYS
9/27/2023NUE 092723NUCOR COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN ADVANCING GREEN ELECTRICITY, SECURE
ELECTRICITY AND LOW-COST ELECTRICITY; ESTIMATES CUT
9/22/2023Gold Ind 092223GOLD INDUSTRY--HIGHLIGHTS OF DENVER GOLD FORUM IN COLORADO
9/17/2023Autumn Trends Mixed 091623COMMODITIES PRICE DEVELOPMENTS UNEVEN AS AUTUMN APPROACHES;
EXCHANGE INVENTORY TOTALS 290,285 T ABOVE YEAR-END 2022 LOWS
9/15/2023WRK 091523WESTROCK COMBINATION WITH SMURFIT KAPPA REQUIRES APPROVAL
BY THE SHAREHOLDERS OF BOTH COMPANIES
9/15/2023Akora AKO 091523 JTACRAKORA RESOURCES RESIGNATION OF FOUNDER; DELAYS TO INFILL
DRILLING AND “SCOPING STUDY” FOR 2 MMT ANNUAL DSO PROJECT
8/31/2023Metals Expansion Vol 99 083123METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 99 AUGUST 18 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND NO CUTBACKS
8/28/2023China Growth Pessimism 082723THE STOCK MARKET PERCEIVES A CHINA SLOWDOWN
8/19/2023X 081823U.S. STEEL LIKELY NEEDS TIME TO GIVE POTENTIAL BIDDERS TOURS AND EVALUATE BIDSIN-
HAND FOR “PIECES” TO COMMAND A $40 TO $55 TAKEOVER BROKEN INTO UP TO 5 PIECES
8/17/2023STLD 083123STEEL DYNAMICS POTENTIAL BENEFICIARY OF THE U.S. STEEL PROCESSES
8/15/2023Price Comparisons and Costs 081523SECOND-QUARTER WE OBSERVE 21 UNIT COST INCREASES AND 13 COST DECLINES TO
AVERAGE 3.9% UNIT COST HIKES AFTER 2.2% COST INCREASES IN 1Q
8/14/2023LPX 081423LOUISIANA-PACIFIC ENJOYS OSB PRICE EXPLOSION AS HOME DEPOT 10% DISCOUNTED BULK
E-COMMERCE PRICES AVERAGE $564/000 SQ FT THIS WEEK; BUYBACKS COULD RESUME
8/14/2023X 081323U.S. STEEL LIKELY COMMANDS A $40 TO $55 TAKEOVER BROKEN INTO UP TO 5 PIECES FOR
MINIMILLS, FLAT-ROLLED, SLOVAKIA, IRON ORE AND TUBULARS
8/7/2023Alum Ind 080723ALUMINUM OUTPUT IN CHINA AND RUSSIA HIGHER THAN EXPECTED;
CHINA BURNS MORE COAL TO OFFSET A BIG FALL IN HYDRO OUTPUT
8/7/2023NUE 080723NUCOR POTENTIALS TO GROW MORE IN FABRICATED STEEL PRODUCTS
8/4/2023SAND 080323SANDSTORM GOLD BENEFITS IN GLENCORE BUYOUT OF MARA, RIO TINTO
STARTUUP IN MONGOLIA AND SSRM BUYOUT AT HOD MADEN
8/2/2023LPX 080223LOUISIANA-PACIFIC ENJOYS MORE OSB PRICE GAINS AND LOWER UNIT COSTS, PARTLY
OFFSET BY LOWER SIDING VOLUMES AND HIGHER SIDING COSTS

7/31/2023PAAS 073123PAN AMERICAN SILVER BEGINS A PROCESS OF STREAMLINING TO
SIMPLIFY
7/29/2023Metals Expansions Vol 98 072923METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 98 JULY 39 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 3 DELAYS OR
CUTBACKS MOSTLY STEEL, IRON ORE, COPPER, LITHIUM AND ALUMINUM RECYCLING

7/27/2023Grupo Mexico 072723GRUPO MEXICO RESOLVES MEXICAN GOVERNMENT ISSUES LUCRATIVELY

7/25/2023PKG 072523PACKAGING CORPORATION PRICE TARGET BENEFITS FROM MUCH LOWER CAP EX; COSTS
CUT BY IDLING OF 560,000 TON WALLULA, WA PLANT
7/24/2023Glencore 072423GLENCORE OPERATING RESULTS TO FALL WELL OVER 60% IN 2023, BUT
OFFSET PARTLY BY ASSET SALES

7/20/2023STLD 072023STEEL DYNAMICS ABOUT TO RESTART SINTON WITH REPAIRS, MID-2025
ALUMINUM STARTUP AND BIGGER SHARE BUYBACKS
7/20/2023AA 072023ALCOA SALES PRICES LOWER, LOUSIER, LONGER AS BAUXITE COSTS RISE

7/17/2023AEM 071723 Malartic exploration photos and notes AGNICO-EAGLE MINES PHOTO BOOK AND LONG-TERM EXPLORATION
IMPLICATIONS OF JUNE 20-21 VISIT TO CANADIAN MALARTIC MINE
7/17/2023AEM 071723 Malartic visit models AGNICO-EAGLE MINES JUNE 20-21 VISIT TO CANADIAN MALARTIC MINE
7/16/2023Metals and Forest price trends 071623METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - - - WINNERS AND LOSERS LOOKING
AHEAD TO 3Q GUIDANCE AND 2Q RESULTS

7/16/2023STLD 071423STEEL DYNAMICS SLOW STARTUP OF SINTON, TX FLAT-ROLLED MILL
7/14/2023TMRC 071423TEXAS MINERAL RESOURCES CORP. NEGOTIATES ALTERNATIVE OF 80% PARTNER USA RARE EARTHS FUNDING ITS 20% OF CAP EX
7/11/2023Steel Ind 2022 vs 1955 071123STEEL INDUSTRY – CHANGE IN DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS BY SHAPE IN 2022
VERSUS 1955 STUDY PEACETIME PRIOR TO DAMAGE FROM WORLD TRADE
7/9/2023Steel Ind rebar vs plate 070923STEEL INDUSTRY – REINFORCING BAR SEGMENT WITH CONSISTENT UNIT
GROWTH VERSUS PLATE SEGMENT FOR RESHORING REBOUND
7/5/2023
Steel Ind sheet prices 070523STEEL INDUSTRY - - COMPARING 2024 EARNINGS OUTLOOKS AT $1,000
VERSUS $800/TON HOT-ROLLED SHEET PRICES
7/5/2023OR 070523OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES MANAGEMENT CHANGES
7/4/2023Avalon Advanced Materials 070323AVALON ADVANCED MATERIALS (AVLNF $0.101, not rated) TO BUILD
LITHIUM MINE IN KENORA AND REFINERY IN THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO;
SAYS THEY WILL “BUILD THE COMPANY” AND NOT SELL OUT

7/1/2023Metals Expansions Vol 97 063023METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 97 JUNE 54 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 5 CUTBACKS MOSTLY
STEEL, COPPER, LITHIUM AND GOLD
6/29/2023WOR 062923WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES HAS STRONG PROFITS FROM STEEL
PROCESSING, STEEL FRAMING AND SERVIACERO IN MAY QUARTER
6/27/2023Steel Ind USA demand 062723STEEL INDUSTRY - - SEVERAL FAVORABLE DEMAND INDICATORS IN USA
6/23/2023Alum Ind 062323ALUMINUM OUTPUT AND APPARENT DEMAND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
AT $0.99/LB LOW LME SPOT PRICES
6/18/2023Iron Ore 061823IRON ORE NEW PROJECT LIST AT 853 MILLION METRIC TONNES LARGER
THAN 500+ MMT THAT WE WROTE JUNE 16TH MORNING
6/16/2023Iron Ore capacity adds 061623IRON ORE PROJECT CANCELLATIONS NEEDED TO PREVENT MASSIVE OVER SUPPLY
6/12/2023Metals 061223METALS INVENTORY STABLE; SPOT NONFERROUS BASE METALS PRICE
DECLINES BAD FOR 2Q AND 3Q EARNINGS OUTLOOKS
6/8/2023Lithium Refining 060823LITHIUM REFINING GLOBAL CAPACITY EX-CHINA SURPLUS IN 2026-28
6/7/2023Conf Highlights 060723HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR JUNE 7TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
6/6/2023Conf Highlights 060623HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR JUNE 6TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
5/31/2023Metals Expansions Vol 96 053123METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 95 MAY 11 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 3 CUTBACKS
5/31/2023Steel Ind 053123STEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINA’S STEEL EXPORTS AND STRONG MILITARY
STEEL USE DRIVE 4.1% 2023 YTD CHINA STEEL OUTPUT GAIN
5/30/2023Vale 053023VALE PHOTO BOOK FROM MAY 22-24 MINAS GERAIS TOUR
5/18/2023LPX 051823LOUISIANA-PACIFIC OSB PRICES REBOUND FOR MAY AND COSTS FALL A LOT IN MARCH
QUARTER, BUT SIDING VOLUMES SOFTEN
5/14/2023X 051423U.S. STEEL BENEFITS FROM TUBULAR PROFIT BOOM REVERSING 2015-21 LOSSES; MINIMILL
UNDERPERFORMS BUT COULD BOOM AFTER 2025 FROM INVESTMENTS; WE AWAIT POST-2025
CAP EX STRATEGY
5/11/2023Price realizations, cost and margins 051123STEEL AND ALUMINUM CUT COSTS AS MOST ENERGY INTENSIVE, BUT FIRST-QUARTER
AVERAGE UNIT COSTS ROSE 2.1% FROM 4Q DUE TO A FEW STEEP COST INCREASES
5/10/2023Akora Resources 051023AKORA RESOURCES INFILL DRILLING, BULK SAMPLE AND “SCOPING
STUDY” FOR 2 MMT ANNUAL DSO PROJECT
5/9/2023SAND 050923SANDSTORM GOLD HAS A STRONGER OPERATOR AND NEW TIMETABLE AS
SSR MINING TO BUY 40% OF HOD MADEN FROM LIDYA
5/9/2023Gold Ind 050923GOLD INDUSTRY BANKING CRISES, RISE OF REMNIBI YUAN TRADE,
CHINA’S PRIMACY AND UKRAINE CONFLICT
5/3/2023Forest Products wood ratings 050323FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. DISCUSSIONS TO EXTEND INDONESIAN MINING CONTRACT
BEYOND 2041
5/3/2023FCX 050323FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. DISCUSSIONS TO EXTEND INDONESIAN MINING CONTRACT
BEYOND 2041

5/2/2023Osisko Mining 050223OSISKO MINING (OBNNF US $2.79, not rated) JOINS WITH GOLD FIELDS LTD
(GFI $15.42, not rated) IN 50%-50% JOINT VENTURE
4/30/2023Metals Expropriative Tax Risks 043023POLITICAL RISKS WITH CHILE NATIONALIZING LITHIUM, NEW CHILEAN
CONSTITUTION, NEW MEXICAN MINING LAW, ETC.

4/30/2023Metals Expansions Vol 95 043023METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 95 APRIL 16 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 9 CUTBACKS
4/26/2023Teck and Glencore 042623GLENCORE AND TECK RESOURCES BOTH CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT
4/26/2023PKG 042523PACKAGING CORPORATION MANAGES VOLUME AND PRICE DECLINES;
FIRST TIME EVER THAT CONTAINERBOARD FALLS FAR MORE THAN STEEL
4/24/2023FCX 042423FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. FIRST-QUARTER RESULTS WITH GRASBERG OUTAGE

4/21/2023Steel Ind 042123STEEL INDUSTRY - - WORLD STEEL OUTPUT IN MARCH 8TH STRONGEST
SINGLE MONTH EVER AT 5.326 MMT/DAY
4/21/2023Molybdenum 042123MOLYBDENUM MARKET REVERSAL

4/20/2023Alum Ind 042023ALUMINUM OUTPUT FALLS 4,323 MTPD IN CHINA IN MARCH 2023 FROM
AUGUST 2022 PEAK; ESTIMATE 2.2% GLOBAL DEMAND FALL IN 2023
4/20/2023AA 042023ALCOA COSTS FALL FOR CAUSTIC SODA, TAR, PITCH AND ENERGY

4/17/2023Teck 041723TECK RESOURCES IMPACTED WITH MET COAL, MOLYBDENUM, ZINC AND COPPER PRICES;
CHINA STEEL OUTPUT UP 5.6% IN EARLY 2023
4/12/2023Conf Highlights 041223HIGHLIGHTS OF APRIL 11-12TH VIRTUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
4/10/2023Metals Impairments 041023METALS - - POLITICAL RISKS DRIVE IMPAIRMENTS IN 2022 SUCH AS FROM UKRAINE WAR AND
SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
4/7/2023OR 040723OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES ENJOYS RECORD SHARE PRICE
4/3/2023Metals Expansions Vol 94 033123METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 94 MARCH 13 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 4 CUTBACKS
4/3/2023Glencore 040323GLENCORE INTENT TO DEMERGE ITS COAL FROM METALS & TRADING
UNLOCKS A BETTER VALUATION; TECK PROPOSAL
3/31/2023SEC Whistleblower Letter 040323COMPLAINT CONCERNING FEES DEDUCTED FROM DIVIDENDS, MEXICAN
WITHHOLDING TAXES DEDUCTED FROM MY IRA RETIREMENT ACCOUNT
AND DISCRIMINATORY PRACTICES OF CANADIAN BROKERS
3/29/2023Metals sustainable 032923ALL METALS PRODUCTION CONSTRAINED WITH HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY
AND DECARBONIZATION, BUT ESPECIALLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM
3/28/2023SAND 032823SANDSTORM GOLD STEADY IN RECENT MONTHS AS TIME PASSES, NET
DEBT FALLS AND PROJECTS A LITTLE CLOSER TO ARRIVAL
3/23/2023Steel Ind 032323STEEL INDUSTRY - - WORLD STEEL ASSN RESTATES JANUARY GLOBAL
OUTPUT UP 10.1 MMT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED

3/23/2023WOR 032323STEEL INDUSTRY - - WORLD STEEL ASSN RESTATES JANUARY GLOBAL
OUTPUT UP 10.1 MMT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
3/22/2023Copper Ind 032223COPPER INDUSTRY JANUARY 2023 SUPPLY LARGER THAN EXPECED
3/22/2023Skeena geostats 032123SKEENA RESOURCES (SKE US $5.50, not rated) SEPTEMBER 2022 DEFINITIVE
FEASIBIILITY STUDY NOTES ON GOLD ASSAYS, GRADES, INTERPRETATION
3/22/2023Teck 032123COPPER INDUSTRY JANUARY 2023 SUPPLY LARGER THAN EXPECED
3/20/2023Metals after bank failures 031823TAKING STOCK OF THE PLUNGE IN MARKET INTEREST RATES AFTER
BANKING CRISES
3/16/2023FNV 031523FRANCO-NEVADA BUSINESS STABILITY ADMIRABLE
3/15/2023WY 031523WEYERHAEUSER SUFFERS SHARP LUMBER, OSB AND PLYWOOD PRICE FALLS BELOW EBITDA
BREAKEVEN, WHILE ENGINEERED SOLID SECTIONS, I-JOISTS & MDF PRICES FIRMER
3/14/2023Gold Ind 031423GOLD INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF GFC TO TODAY; 11TH CONSECUTIVE
MONTH OF BULLION ETF LIQUIDATIONS
3/13/2023AEM 031323AGNICO-EAGLE MINES FORECASTS A 2024 COST DECLINE AND HAS MANY ALTERNATIVES
3/10/2023Copper Ind Argentina 031023COPPER INDUSTRY - - FIVE PROJECTS COULD CATAPULT ARGENTINA TO 3⁄4
MMT COPPER MINE OUTPUT BY 2032
3/9/2023Toronto Highlights 030823 HIGHLIGHTS OF 2023 TORONTO PROSPECTOR AND DEVELOPERS ASSN
CONVENTION
3/9/2023Copper Ind 030823COPPER INDUSTRY FINELY BALANCED, WHERE SHORT-TERM RISKS OF
NEW SUPPLY BALANCE RECESSION IMPACTS ON DEMAND
2/23/2023AEM 022323AGNICO-EAGLE MINES FORECASTS LOWER OUTPUT AT SEVERAL MINES
2/21/2023AA 022123ALCOA FACES HEADWINDS IN BAUXITE AND ALUMINA AS SOFT
CONSTRUCTION MARKETS FALL MORE THAN OTHER USES GROW IN 2023
2/21/2023TECK 022123TECK RESOURCES SPLIT UP ‘EMASCULATED” WHERE COAL SPINOFF TO GIVE ITS CASH FLOW
TO “TECK METALS” FOR PERHAPS 5 TO 11 YEARS TO BE FREE AND CLEAR IN 2029 OR 2035
2/20/2023Alum Ind 022023ALUMINUM INDUSTRY MOVES INTO OVERSUPPLY

2/17/2023TECK 021723TECK RESOURCES SPLIT UP EXPECTATIONS DRIVE UP STOCK PRICE

2/13/2023KGC KINROSS GOLD PUBLISHES 5.0 MM OZ MAIDEN GOLD RESOURCES IN RED
LAKE, ONTARIO
2/12/2023METALS AT HIGH INTEREST RATESHIGH SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES HAVE DIVERSE ADVERSE IMPACTS
2/9/2023IRON OREIRON ORE OUPTUT CONTINUES STRONG IN FOURTH-QUARTER, STEEL
OUTPUT REMAINS WEAK AND IRON ORE PRICES REBOUND 50%

2/7/2023GPK 020723GRAPHIC PACKAGING REPAYS 1/10TH OF DEBT AND INTEGRATES BOTH
EUROPEAN LARGE ACQUISITION AND NEW KALAMAZOO MILL
2/5/2023NEM 020623NEWMONT MINING BIDS FOR NEWCREST MINING
2/5/2023Metals Diverse 020423METALS DIVERGENT TRENDS
2/3/2023MAG 020323MAG SILVER (MAG $14.04) ENERGIZED POWER LINES AND GRINDING MILLS
TO RAMP UP TOWARDS 10 MM OZ ATTRIBUTABLE OUTPUT BY YEAR-END
2/2/2023Containerboard 020123CONTAINERBOARD MARKET SHARE SHIFTS

1/31/2023IP 013123INTERNATIONAL PAPER WEATHERS TOUGH MARKETS

1/31/2023Metals Expansions Vol 92 013123METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 92 JANUARY 29 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 5 CUTBACKS

1/31/2023FCX 013023FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. MANAGES CONSERVATIVELY TO GROW
1/24/2023Copper Ind Focus on Peru 012423
OUR SURVEY OF SPANISH LANGUAGE NEWS ARTICLES FROM PERU TODAY

1/22/2023Metals 012223PERU IN NATIONAL REBELLION; SHANGHAI PUBLIC INVENTORIES RISE;
ORIENTED STRAND BOARD AND CARDBOARD SCRAP DEEP NEW LOWS
1/20/2023Alum Ind 012023ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
1/10/2023Steel Ind 011023STEEL INDUSTRY CAPACITY, OUTPUT AND DECARBONIZATION UPDATES
1/9/2023Copper Ind focus on Moly 010923COPPER INDUSTRY BENEFITS FROM DOUBLING IN MOLYBDENUM PRICES; THIS IS BONA FIDE
DUE TO MOLY OUTPUT DECLINES OVER PAST 5 YEARS

1/5/2023China Outlook, ratings and price estimates 010523METALS OVERVIEW AND UPDATE ON CHINA PLANNING GOALS FOR 2023
1/3/2023
Metals rising 010323METALS PRICES CLEARLY IN A RISING TREND FROM SEPT. 2022 LOWS,
WHERE NONFERROUS METALS RISING THE MOST
1/3/2023Metals Expansions Vol 91 123122METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 91 DECEMBER 24 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 11 CUTBACKS
12/29/2022AEM 122822AGNICO-EAGLE MINES OPPORTUNITIES TO DIVEST SURPLUS PROJECTS,
SAVE TIME OR AVOID FULL THROTTLE CAP EX OUTLAYS

12/26/2022Forest Products wood ratings 122622FOREST PRODUCTS - - MUTED OR NIL SPRING RECOVERY LIKELY
FOLLOWED BY OUTPUT CUTS CAUSE US TO CUT INVESTMENT RATINGS
12/22/2022Steel Ind 122222STEEL INDUSTRY OUTPUT AND DEMAND SUFFER

12/20/2022Gold Ind 122022GOLD INDUSTRY - - GOLD BULLION ETF NET BUYING RESUMES IN
DECEMBER TO BENEFIT GOLD PRICES AFTER 7 MONTHS OF NET SALES
12/19/2022AA 121922ALCOA COST OUTLOOKS FOR 2023 SUGGEST MORE MARGIN PRESSURES
12/14/2022Steel Ind Decarbonization121422STEEL INDUSTRY DECARBONIZATION ALTERNATIVE FOR “BIOMASS” OR
CHARCOAL
12/12/2022Metals Tax-Loss Selling 121222SECTORS WITH POTENTIALLY LARGER DECEMBER TAX-LOSS SELLING
12/12/2022Vale 121222VALE GREATLY REDUCES IRON ORE PRODUCTION FORECASTS PERHAPS NEVER RETURNING
TO 2018 PRIOR RECORD OUTPUT, ESPECIALLY IN MINAS GERAIS, TIGHTENING MARKETS
12/8/2022Conf Highlights Dec 8 120822HIGHLIGHTS OF VIRTUAL CONFERENCE DECEMBER 8TH
12/7/2022Conf. Highlights Dec 7 120722HIGHLIGHTS OF VIRTUAL CONFERENCE DECEMBER 7TH
12/6/2022Metals Outlook 2023 120622OUTLOOK FOR 2023 AND RECENT CONTRIBUTORS TO PERFORMANCE
12/6/2022Teck 120622TECK RESOURCES MANAGES CASH FLOWS UNDER PROSPERITY TO DIVIDE BETWEEN COPPER
REINVESTMENTS AND SHARE BUYBACKS; PROJECT EXECUTIONS MORE SLOWLY WITH CARE
12/5/2022Forest Products wood prices 120522FOREST PRODUCTS - - - NORMAL SEASONAL UPTURN IN WOOD PRICES IN
ANTICIPATION OF SPRING BEHIND SCHEDULE OR SLOW TO FOREST PRODUCTS - - - NORMAL SEASONAL UPTURN IN WOOD PRICES IN
ANTICIPATION OF SPRING BEHIND SCHEDULE OR SLOW TO DEVELOP DEVELOP
12/5/2022Metals Expansions Vol 90 120522METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 90 NOVEMBER 23 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 4 CUTBACKS
11/26/2022Metals 112822METALS - - SPOT MARKET OR SUPPLY-DEMAND DATA RANGES FROM
DISAPPOINTING TO MIXED, BUT NO “RAGING BULLISH” DATA
11/18/2022Barrick Gold 111822BARRICK GOLD MAJOR PROGRAMS TO EXPAND LUMWANA COPPER IN
ZAMBIA, BUILD REKO DIQ IN PAKISTAN AND EXTEND IN DOMINICAN REP
11/16/2022SAND 111622SANDSTORM GOLD MAKES $1.1 BILLION IN ACQUISITIONS AND LAUNCHES
34%-OWNED HORIZON COPPER JUST PRIOR TO MARKET DECLINES
11/14/2022Gold Ind 111422GOLD INDUSTRY - - WHILE LOWER INTEREST RATES WEAKEN US DOLLAR,
UKRAINE WAR COSTS AND MANY OTHER FACTORS UNDERMINE EURO
11/13/2022Steel Ind 111322STEEL INDUSTRY - - COLLAPSE IN STEEL, SCRAP STEEL AND IRON ORE
PRICES UNDERMINE 2023 EARNINGS OUTLOOKS

11/8/2022Century Alum 110822CENTURY ALUMINUM CONTINUES WITH VERY HIGH OPERATING COSTS, BUT REPORTS
LARGE DERIVATIVE GAINS TO SIDESTEP RED INK
11/8/2022Century Alum 110722CENTURY ALUMINUM CONTINUES WITH VERY HIGH OPERATING COSTS, BUT REPORTS
LARGE DERIVATIVE GAINS TO SIDESTEP RED INK
11/7/2022AEM 110722AGNICO-EAGLE MINES TO APPROACH 4.4 MM OZ GOLD OUTPUT WITH 100%
MALARTIC MINE OWNERSHIP AND OTHER INITIATIVES
11/3/2022Price realizations and costs 110322FOCUS ON RISING COSTS TO FORCE OUTPUT CUTS WITH LOWER PRICES
10/31/2022Metals Expansions Vol 89 103122METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 89 OCT SEES 16 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 9 CUTBACKS

10/31/2022Gold Ind 103122GOLD INDUSTRY - - WHILE WORLD MINE OUTPUT TRENDS 6% BELOW 2018 RECORD LEVELS,
LOWER PRICES AND HIGHER COSTS WILL SLOW IT MORE

10/28/2022Iron Ore 102822IRON ORE INDUSTRY – COMBINED OUTPUT OF 5 SEABORNE LEADERS IN
SEPTEMBER 2022 QUARTER BREAKS JUNE 2018 RECORD

10/24/2022Copper Ind 102122COPPER APPARENT DEMAND ABOUT 1%-2% BETTER THAN EXPECTED,
WHILE MINED & REFINED OUTPUT ABOUT 1%-2% LESS THAN EXPECTED

10/20/2022Alum Ind 102022ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - -MINOR DECLINES IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER
OUTPUTS IN CHINA; EXCHANGE INVENTORIES RISE

10/17/2022Forest Products 101722FOREST PRODUCTS - - SCRAP CONTAINERBOARD IN OCTOBER FALLS TO
$38/TON FROM $77 IN SEPT. AND $126/TON IN JULY; ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

10/16/2022Metals 101622METALS INVENTORIES RISE AND REBOUND; SOME PRICES FALL TO NEW
LOWS WHILE SOME OTHER PRICES REBOUND IN 4Q

10/12/2022Conf Highlights 101222HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER 12TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE

10/11/2022Conf Highlights 101122HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER 11, 2022 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE

10/5/2022Perth HQ visits 100322PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA COMPANY HQ VISITS

10/2/2022Metals Inventories 093022NEW 31-YEAR LOW FOR NONFERROUS METALS TOTAL EXCHANGE
INVENTORIES

9/30/2022
Metals Expansions 88
093022
METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 88 SEPT SEES 12 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 9 CUTBACKS

9/27/2022Osisko Mining 092722OSISKO MINING (OBNNF US $1.83, not rated) SUGGESTS 625 METER OR 2+ MM
OZ GOLD RESOURCE EXTENSIONS
9/26/2022GOLD INDUSTRY - - MECHANISMS TO BYPASS U.S. DOLLAR IN EARLY
STAGES OF BYPASSING DOLLAR OR EURO AS RESERVE CURRENCIES 092622
GOLD INDUSTRY - - MECHANISMS TO BYPASS U.S. DOLLAR IN EARLY
STAGES OF BYPASSING DOLLAR OR EURO AS RESERVE CURRENCIES
9/24/2022Metals Price Cuts 092322METALS PRICE REDUCTIONS DUE TO STRONGER US DOLLAR, HIGHER
INTEREST RATES GLOBALLY AND USA ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
9/20/2022Alum Ind 092022ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - AUGUST CHINA AND WORLD SMELTER OUTPUT
RISES A 5TH STRAIGHT MONTHLY RECORD; EXCHANGE INVENTORIES RISE
9/19/2022Containerboard Ind 091922CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY – FALL TO $77/TON OLD CORRUGATED
CONTAINERBOARD (OCC) SCRAP SIGNALS DEMAND WEAKNESS
9/13/2022Gold Ind 091322GOLD INDUSTRY - - HIGHER INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES CONTINUE

9/12/2022Metals Update 091122GOLD INDUSTRY - - HIGHER INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES CONTINUE
8/26/2022Metals Expansions Vol 87 082622METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 87 AUGUST SEES 26 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 11
CUTBACKS
8/26/2022Metals Irregular Dividends 082622METALS - - COMPARISONS OF 14 “IRREGULAR DIVIDENDS” OVERSEAS
8/24/2022LPX Smart-Side 082422LOUISIANA-PACIFIC “SMART-SIDE” SOLD MORE IN NORTH THAN U.S. SOUTH; MUCH UPSIDE
AS LPX SIDING ALMOST UNKNOWN IN CENTRAL FLORIDA; FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
8/24/2022AA 082422ALCOA HIGHER COSTS & LOWER PRICES ERASE EARNINGS IN 2H 2022
8/23/2022Steel Ind 082322STEEL INDUSTRY - - WORLD STEEL OUTPUT COLLAPSES IN JULY 2022
8/22/2022Alum Ind 082022ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - DEMAND AND SUPPLY BOTH LARGER THAN
EXPECTED
8/20/2022Copper D Growth Speech Final Updated 082122COPPER INDUSTRY DEMAND TRENDS IN A COMPARATIVE HISTORICAL CONTEXT
8/19/2022Metals Prices and Costs 081922METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS COMPARISONS OF JUNE QUARTER MARGINS, COSTS, PRICE
REALIZATIONS AND SEPTEMBER QUARTER OUTLOOK
8/10/2022Conf Highlights 081022HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR AUGUST 10, 2022 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE

8/9/2022Conf Highlights 080922HIGHLIGHTS OF AUGUST 9, 2022 VIRTUAL CONFERENCE

8/1/2022Metals Expansions Vol 86 073122 METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 86 JULY SEES 10 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 2 CUTBACKS
7/16/2022Metals 071622NONFERROUS METALS INVENTORIES CONTINUE TO FALL; METALS PRICES
CONTINUE TO FALL; CHINESE STATE CENTRAL IRON ORE
7/15/2022Copper Ind speech 071522COPPER INDUSTRY DEMAND TRENDS IN A COMPARATIVE HISTORICAL CONTEXT
7/14/2022X 071422U.S. STEEL FOURTH-QUARTER WILL SUFFER IMPACTS FROM CLOSURES OF UKRAINE IRON
ORE MINES AS WELL AS LOWER STEEL PRICES
7/12/2022PAAS 071222PAN AMERICAN BUILDS CASH WITH PROJECT DELAYS TO WEATHER LOWER METALS PRICES
7/11/2022Teck 070922TECK RESOURCES ENJOYS BOOM ENERGY AND METALS PRICES; RETURNS OF CAPITAL TO
SHAREHOLDERS AND PROJECT REINVESTMENTS NOW THE FOCUS
7/8/2022Gold Ind 070822GOLD INDUSTRY - - GERMANY & FRANCE BAIL OUT NATURAL GAS UTILITY TO PREVENT
CONSUMERS FROM PAYING MARKET PRICES

7/7/2022WY 7/7/2022WEYERHAEUSER A POTENTIAL BENEFICIARY AS INTEREST RATES BEGIN TO FALL WITH
CONSENSUS NOW EXPECTING A RECESSION
7/5/2022Political Risks 070522METALS - - UN VOTES CONCERNING UKRAINE WAR AS MEASURES OF RISK
7/3/2022Metals Inventories 070422METALS PRICES AND INVENTORIES BOTH FALL MORE, WHERE LARGE OUTPUT CUTS WILL
WORSEN METALS SHORTAGES
7/3/2022PKG 070422PACKAGING CORPORATION ENJOYS BIGGER EARNINGS GAINS THAN WRK
OR IP AGAIN IN 2022 AFTER OUT EARNING THEM IN 2021
7/1/2022WRK 070122WESTROCK ENJOYS GOOD SALES PRICES AND OPERATING PROFITS, BUT SHUTS DOWN
VIRGIN CONTAINERBOARD CAPACITY
6/29/2022X 062922U.S. STEEL TO CLOSE MOLTEN STEELMAKING AT GRANITE CITY, IL IN 2024; SLOVAK MILL
RUNS SMOOTHLY DESPITE UKRAINE WAR; STRONG FIRST-HALF PROFITS
6/29/2022Metals Expansions 062922METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 85 JUNE SEES 18 PROJECTS ADVANCE AND 5 CUTBACKS,
INVENTORIES FALL & SEVERAL NOTABLE WORLD OUTPUT DECLINES EMERGE
6/29/2022Galway Metals 062822GALWAY METALS FILES CLARENCE STREAM NI-43-101 RESOURCES JUNE
9
TH; 3 RIGS RUNNING AT CLARENCE STREAM AND 20+ KM ASSAYS DUE
6/27/2022Metals Inventories 062522METALS EXCHANGE INVENTORIES APPROACH DECEMBER 2006 16-YEAR
AND 1991 31-YEAR LOWS
6/23/2022WOR 062322WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES NAVIGATES ERRATIC WILD STEEL PRICES
6/22/2022CENX 062222CENTURY ALUMINUM MAKES THE RIGHT DECISION AND CUTS OUTPUT WITH LOWER
ALUMINUM PRICES AND HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
6/21/2022Conf Highlights 062122HIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 21ST VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
6/20/2022Metals 062022METALS PRICE FALLS ANTICIPATE “HARD LANDING” RECESSION WHERE
DOUBLE DIGIT OUTPUT DECLINES OR SHORTAGES LOOM
6/15/2022Gold Ind 061522GOLD INDUSTRY - - WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS A POTENTIAL LEAD
INDICATOR TO FEDERAL RESERVE AS TO EASING OF INFLATION
6/15/2022IP 061522INTERNATIONAL PAPER EXPOSURE TO RUSSIA IN CONTEXT OF “2ND HAIRCUT” TO KINROSS
GOLD ASSET SALE ON JUNE 15TH

6/13/2022Gold Ind 061022GOLD INDUSTRY - - FARCICAL POLITICIZATION OF U.S. ECONOMIC POLICY
6/4/2022Copper 060422COPPER WORLD SUPPLY-DEMAND FINELY BALANCED IN 2022
6/3/2022IP 060322INTERNATIONAL PAPER EXPOSURE TO RUSSIA INVOLVES 50% JV SELLING 60% OF PRIOR
OUTPUT DIRECTLY TO CHINA
6/1/2022Yamana 060122YAMANA GOLD ALTERNATIVES TO REPAIR GFI MAY 31ST BID, SEEK A NEW
BIDDER OR HAVE FORMALITY OF SHAREHOLDERS VOTE ON MAY 31ST BID
6/1/2022LPX 060122LOUISIANA-PACIFIC HOME OSB SIDING SUGGESTS THAT LPX SMART-SIDE RETAIL COSTS
OFFER BETTER QUALITY AT COSTS ABOUT SIMILAR TO VINYL OR HARDIE BOARD
5/11/2021Centerra Gold 051121CENTERRA GOLD A CASE STUDY IN EXPROPRIATION
5/8/2021Price Realizations 050721SPOT PRICES KEEP RISING
5/5/2021Containerboard 050521CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY SEES FIRST PRICE HIKE IN 2 YEARS
5/5/2021WRK 050521WESTROCK CEO EXPRESSES OPTIMISM; NO HINTS OF STRATEGIC OR SURGICAL CHANGES
4/23/2021Iron Ore 042321IRON ORE AND STEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINESE STEEL OUTPUT UP 15.6% IN 1Q
WITH 3.03 MMT/DAY IN MARCH; MAY CONTRACTS AT $180/T FIRMING
4/20/2021Conf Highlights 042021HIGHLIGHTS OF APRIL20TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SESSION INCLUDES 4
GOLD MINES, A ZINC, A COPPER AND 2 LITHIUM STOCKS
4/19/2021Conf Highlights 041621HIGHLIGHTS OF APRIL19TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SESSION WHERE 7 OF 8
PRESENTATIONS RELATED TO OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES ASSETS
4/17/2021Steel and Wood Prices 041621FOREST PRODUCTS AND STEEL: COMPARISON OF RISING RECORD WOOD
AND STEEL PRICES
4/16/2021Equinox Gold 041621EQUINOX GOLD A CASE STUDY IN RECENT GOLD MINE ACQUISITIONS
4/13/2021Akora AKO 041321AKORA RESOURCES FIRST EIGHT DRILL HOLES RELEASED APRIL 13TH
4/9/2021Wood Prices 040921FOREST PRODUCTS - - ALL SIGNS POINT TO OVERWHELMING WOOD
EARNINGS
4/9/2021Gold and German interest rates 040921GOLD, INTEREST RATES AND COMMODITIES: THINKING AHEAD TO NEXT
GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS SEPTEMBER 26TH
4/6/2021Metals D-S changes 040621GROWTH RATE UNUSUAL COMPARISONS IN 2021 TO 2020
4/5/2021Metals Overview 040521INTEREST RATES RISE VERY LITTLE AFTER HUGE EMPLOYMENT GAINS
3/29/2021Metals Expansions Vol 70 032921
METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 70 MARCH SEES 23 PROJECTS
ADVANCE LED BY STEEL, IRON ORE, GOLD AND LITHIUM
3/26/2021Ratings changes 032621METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - - INVESTMENT RATINGS CHANGES
3/26/2021WFG 032621WEST FRASER GROUP CONCERNS ABOUT HIGHER INTEREST RATES, BUT
CASH BUILDUPS ARE MOST FORMIDABLE
3/23/2021Steel and Alum outputs 032321STEEL INDUSRY - - - GLOBAL STEEL, ROW STEEL OUTPUT, GLOBAL
ALUMINUM OUTPUT, CHINA AL AND ROW AL ALL SET RECORDS
3/15/2021Alum Ind 031321ALUMINUM INDUSTRY -- DOWNGRADES DUE TO LARGE INVESNTORY AND PRICE APPRECIATION: COPPER, NICKEL OR ZINC MAY BE SIMILAR
3/11/2021Gold and Nonferrous 031121GOLD INDUSTRY -- TORONTO PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS CONVENTION (PDAC) GONE VIRTUAL
3/6/2021Gold 030521GOLD INDUSTRY - - PRICES RETREAT BY ALMOST ½ OF TWO-YEAR GAINS
3/2/2021WRK 030221WESTROCK HIRES NEW CEO FROM SHERWIN WILLIAMS PAINTS AND EARLIER GE
2/28/2021Metals 022821METALS MARKETS START OUT 2021 STRONGLY
2/28/2021Metals Expansions Vol 69 022821METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 69 FEBRUARY SEES 21 PROJECTS
ADVANCE LED BY STEEL, GOLD AND LITHIUM AND 8 DELAYS OR CUTS
2/19/2021Metals substitution 021921METALS SUBSTITUTION COMPARISONS AS PRICES RISE
2/17/2021Conf Highlights 021721HIGHLIGHTS OF FEB. 17TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE BASE METALS SESSIONS
2/16/2021Conf Highlights 021621HIGHLIGHTS OF FEBRUARY 16TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE GOLD SESSIONS
2/13/2021Forest Products wood 021321FOREST PRODUCTS BENEFIT AS WOOD PRICES RISE EVEN MORE
2/8/2021IP 020821INTERNATIONAL PAPER AINTERNATIONAL PAPER APPEARS TO SUFFER COST INFLATIONSPPEARS TO SUFFER COST INFLATIONS
2/2/2021Metals Expansions Vol 68 013121METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 68 JANUARY SEES 28 PROJECTS
ADVANCING LED BY STEEL AND BATTERY METALS AND 4 CUTBACKS
1/27/2021Gold fake CPI data 012821GOLD - - ESTIMATE 1.4% CPI IN 2020 AND 1.77% THIRTY YEAR TREASURY
TRANSITION TO 10+% CPI OR 10+% THIRTY YEAR TREASURY YIELD
1/22/2021Iron Ore 012221IRON ORE OUTPUT SHORTFALLS TO INTERRUPT CHINESE STEEL OUTPUT
1/21/2021Metals political regulatory outlook 012121METALS - - - POLITICAL REGULATORY OUTLOOK APPEARS TO LEAN TO
DEMOCRATS FOR MORE REGULATIONS, HIGHER TAXES, HIGHER SPENDING
1/13/2021Gold Ind 011321GOLD - - A THIRD AND FOURTH FACTOR ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
1/11/2021Domtar 011121DOMTAR SALE OF PERSONAL CARE UNIT FOR US $920 MM FAR BELOW OUR
EXPECTATIONS
1/5/2021Century Alum 010521CENTURY ALUMINUM WORKS TO PARE DEBT AND COSTS AS PRICES
REBOUND IN 2021 AFTER TOUGH 2018-20 PERIOD
12/31/2020WORK 123120WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES RIDES ROLLER COASTER TO $1,000 HOTROLLED SHEET STEEL INPUTS
12/31/2020Metals Expansions Vol 67 123020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 67 DECEMBER SEES 20 PROJECTS
ADVANCING AND 2 CUTBACKS
12/30/2020SAND 123020SANDSTORM GOLD ENJOYS STRONG PROGRESS AT SOME PROJECTS AND
DELAYS AT SOME OTHERS
12/29/2020 Metals Outlook 122920LOOKING AHEAD TO 2021 DYNAMICS
12/28/2020White Paper 122720FOREST PRODUCTS - - STAPLES MAKES THIRD LARGE WHITE PAPER PRICE
CUT IN 16 MONTHS
12/22/2020AEM 122320AGNICO EAGLE MINES 3 NEW UNDERGROUND MINES MALARTIC RAMP,
EAST GOULDIE SHAFT AND UPPER BEAVER & SANTA GERTRUDIS LEACH
12/21/2020Metals Prices 122120Metals Prices 122120
12/21/2020Akora AKO 122020 JTACRAKORA RESOURCES LIMITED BEGINS TO EVALUATE THE BEKISOPA IRON
ORE PROJECT IN MADAGASCAR
12/20/2020Alum Ind 122020ALUMINUM INDUSTRY LIKELY A STRONG BENEFICIARY OF CLIMATE
CHANGE GLOBAL TRENDS AND INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES ESG EMPHASIS
12/19/2020Wood Prices 121920FOREST PRODUCTS - - - OMG LUMBER, PLYWOOD AND OSB REBOUND
SMARTLY IN DECEMBER ! ! !
12/18/2020Spot Markets 121820SPOT MARKETS - - BASE METALS PRICES BOOM WITH RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS AND AS
VARIOUS CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGETS CONSTRAIN FUTURE OUTPUT
12/16/2020Metals Hosted Takeovers 121620METALS - - WE HAVE HOSTED 95 COMPANIES BOUGHT OUT FOR US $77.2
BILLION
12/10/2020Steel Ind 121020METALS - - BIDEN NOMINATES A U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE FROM THE
BOWELS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
12/10/2020x 121020FORTESCUE METALS TAKES “BABY STEPS” AT 1% OF “FORTESCUE FUTURE INDUSTRIES” TO
BE BIGGER THAN CHEVRON OR TOTAL AT NEAR 235 GIGA-WATTS
12/8/2020Fortescue 120820FORTESCUE METALS TAKES “BABY STEPS” AT 1% OF “FORTESCUE FUTURE INDUSTRIES” TO
BE BIGGER THAN CHEVRON OR TOTAL AT NEAR 235 GIGA-WATTS
12/8/2020ATI 120820ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES TO FOCUS ON AEROSPACE AND “REQUIEM
FOR A DREAM” IN HISTORIC FLAT-ROLLED STAINLESS
12/2/2020Gold Ind 120220GOLD BULLION ETF AND GOLD PRICE HISTORICAL CORRELATION
12/1/2020Metals Expansions Vol 66METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 66 NOVEMBER SEES 14 PROJECTS
ADVANCING AND NO CUTBACKS
12/1/2020Outlook 2021 113020OUTLOOK INCLUDES UNCERTAINTIES AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO 2021
11/25/2020Northern Dynasty 112520NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS (NAK $0.397, no rating, no financial models)
DENIED PERMITS BY U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
11/21/2020Silver 112120SILVER MARKET OUTLOOK IMPROVES AS MINE OUTPUT LESS WHILE
ELECTRIFICATION, GREEN HYDROGEN AND SOLAR MOMENTUMS BUILD
11/19/2020Steel Ind 111920STEEL INDUSTRY - - CLF MARKET SHARE AFTER MERGER OF AKS AND MT ASSETS
11/12/2020Fortescue 111220FORTESCUE METALS PREDICTS “FORTESCUE FUTURE INDUSTRIES” TO BE BIGGER THAN
CHEVRON OR TOTAL AT NEAR 235 GIGA-WATTS
11/10/2020FCX 110920FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. MAINTAINS COST CONTROLS EVEN WITH $3-$4 BILLION
PROSPECTIVE FREE CASH FLOWS BOTH IN 2021 AND 2022
11/9/2020Domtar 110920DOMTAR STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES UNFOLD AS BOTH WHITE PAPER
VOLUMES AND PERSONAL CARE IMPROVE
11/5/2020Metals Expectations 110520METALS --- MACRO STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS IN USA MAY FALL SHORT
11/5/2020Wood prices boom 110520FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES REMAIN HISTORICALLY STRONG
11/5/2020Containerboard 110520CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY SEES FIRST PRICE HIKE IN 2 YEARS
11/2/2020Metals Expansions Vol 65 103020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 65 OCTOBER SEES 19 PROJECTS
ADVANCING AND ONLY 4 CUTBACKS
10/19/2020Gold Ind 101620GOLD INDUSTRY - - UZBEKISTAN 31.7 T CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVE
SALE IN AUGUST; GOLD PRICE DOWNSIDE RISKS GROW
10/13/2020SPOT Markets 101320SPOT MARKETS - - EIGHT METALS PRICE THIRD-QUARTER AVERAGES EXCEED 2019 AVERAGE
10/9/2020Copper Ind 100920COPPER INDUSTRY - - HIGHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY ESTIMATES
10/6/2020OR 100820OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES TO SPIN OUT MANY EXPENSES INTO OSISKO DEVELOPMENT
10/1/2020Conf Highlights 100120VIRTUAL CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER 1, 2020
9/30/2020Metals Expansions Vol 64 093020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 63 SEPTEMBER SEES 12 PROJECTS
ADVANCING AND 6 CUTBACKS
9/28/2020Metals and Gold 092820METALS INDUSTRY - - LEAD INDICATORS OF U.S. INDUSTRIAL DECLINE
BEARISH FOR MANY COMPANIES, BUT BULLISH FOR GOLD
9/28/2020 Steel Ind 092820STEEL INDUSTRY - - CLF ACQUIRES MT USA OPERATIONS OF 19 PLANTS
9/24/2020 Gold Ind Colorado conf 092420GOLD - - HIGHLIGHTS OF DENVER GOLD FORUM AMERICAS
9/23/2020 WOR 092320WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES ENJOYS $10.74 PER SHARE NET GAIN ON NKLA
AND CLOSES QUARTER WITH $650.1 MM IN CASH BALANCES
9/17/2020 IP 091720INTERNATIONAL PAPER SUFFERS AS REVENUES FALL; UNCOATED FREE SHEET DECLINES
9/14/2020 Domtar 091420DOMTAR STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES AS WHITE PAPER MARKET SHRINKS;
AVOIDS RED INK AS PERSONAL CARE AND PULP IMPROVE
9/14/2020OR 091420OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES REVIEWED IN TERMS OF PRODUCING VERSUS PRE-REVENUE
ASSETS
9/11/2020 PAAS 091120PAN AMERICAN SILVER HAS 1.2 BIL. OZ AG RESOURCES TRIPLE RESERVES
AND 20.2 MM OZ AU RESOURCES QUINTUPLE AU RESERVES; LA COLORADA
SKARN 141 MM OZ AG & 6.3 MMT ZN, PB AND CU
9/10/2020 Conf Highlights 091020HIGHLIGHTS OF VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 10, 2020
9/9/2020 Grupo Mexico 090920GRUPO MEXICO: KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN REJECTS US $20 BILLION BID
ILLUSTRATING UNDERLYING VALUE OF RAIL OPERATIONS
9/8/2020BHP 090820BHP TARGETS COPPER, NICKEL AND POTASH TO LIKELY BE SMALLER
9/4/2020WY 090420WEYERHAEUSER ENJOYS WOOD PRICE BOOM WITH HOUSING REBOUNDS
9/4/2020
Spot Markets 090420SPOT MARKETS - - METALS PRICES RISE DUE TO CHINESE RECOVERY AND WEAK U.S. DOLLAR
8/30/2020
Metals Expansions Vol 63METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 63 AUGUST SEES FULL THROTTLE
TURNAROUND WITH 16 PROJECTS ADVANCING AND 4 CUTBACKS
8/28/2020Fortescue 082820FORTESCUE METALS ENJOYS IRON ORE PRICE BOOM AS CHINESE STOCKPILES RUN OUT, BUT
VALE, RIO, BHP AND FORTESCUE EACH REINVEST TO DELIVER MUCH ORE IN 2022
8/17/2020Silver 081720SILVER MARKET REVIEWED IN LONG-TERM CONTEXT
8/15/2020Wood prices boom 081520FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES ACCELERATE AUGUST 15TH TO “SUPER
BOOM” NEW RECORD LEVELS
8/14/2020Conf Highlights 081420HIGHLIGHTS OF AUGUST 14TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SESSIONS
8/13/2020Conf Highlights 081320HIGHLIGHTS OF THE AUGUST 13TH VIRTUAL CONFERENCE SESSIONS
8/12/2020Conf Highlights 081220HIGHLIGHTS OF THE AUGUST 12TH SESSION OF OUR VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
8/11/2020Conf Highlights 081120HIGHLIGHTS OF THE AUGUST 11TH SESSION OF OUR VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
8/10/2020Conf. Highlights 081020HIGHLIGHTS OF AUGUST 10TH SESSION OF OUR VIRTUAL CONFERENCES
8/3/2020
tmrc 080320 JTACRTEXAS MINERAL RESOURCES CORP. PROXY VOTE
8/2/2020Metals Expansions Vol 62METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 62 JULY SEES PROJECTS AGAIN, BUT
COMPANIES STRUGGLE TO KEEP PACE WITH PLANS IN PANDEMIC
7/31/2020Norbord 073120NORBORD BENEFITS FROM BOOM IN OSB PRICES AND HOUSING IN NORTH AMERICA
7/31/2020LPX 073120LOUISIANA-PACIFIC BENEFITS FROM BOOMS IN OSB PRICES AND HOUSING
7/30/2020Galway Metals JTACTGALWAY METALS REPORTS VERY HIGH GRADE RESULTS AT “CLARENCE
STREAM” IN NEW BRUNSWICK THAT WE VISITED LAST AUGUST 8TH
7/29/2020Metals aerospace 072920METALS - - COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE DECLINE IMPACTS GLENCORE,
VALE, WPM, NEW ARCONIC, HOWMET AEROSPACE, CONSTELLIUM, KAISER
ALUMINUM, ATI VIA COBALT, TITANIUM, ALUMINUM PLATE
7/24/2020Metals price supply shortfalls 072320METALS MACRO OVERVIEW TO HIGHER PRICES AS EVENTS CHANGE FAST;
MINE OUTPUT DECLINES IN FE, CU, AU, NI, PB AND ZN
7/21/2020PKG 072120PACKAGING CORPORATION HAS FLEXIBILITY AS CASH BALANCES RISE;
INDUSTRYWIDE WHITE PAPER SALES COLLAPSE
7/20/2020WRK 071920WESTROCK MOVES TO REPAY $1 BILLION OF DEBT FASTER; UP AND DOWN ERRATIC
MONTHLY TRENDS FOR CONTAINERBOARD AND CONSUMER PACKAGING
7/16/2020Cameco vs Solar 071620CAMECO: SOME RECENT ADVANCES IN SOLAR ENERGY
7/14/2020Chile Copper Output 071420COPPER INDUSTRY - - CHILEAN COPPER OUTPUT UP 1% FOR MAY
7/10/2020Sport Markets 071020SPOT MARKETS - - NONFERROUS METALS SPOT PRICES RISE DUE TO CHINESE RECOVERY AND
WEAKER U.S. DOLLAR, WHERE U.S. DOLLAR COULD PLUNGE IF BAD NEWS PERSISTS
7/9/2020Cameco 070820CAMECO: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND COMPETITION ADVANCE; WORLD
RECESSION LIFTS URANIUM PRICES AS MINES CLOSE & DEMAND FALLS
7/8/2020OR 070820OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES “INCUBATOR ASSETS” ADVANCE WITH MORE
DRILLING, MORE RESOURCES, ECONOMIC STUDIES AND/OR HIGHER GOLD
7/6/2020Copper Ind 070620COPPER INDUSTRY - - HIGHER DEMAND AND SUPPLY ESTIMATES FOR 2020;
PRICE FORECASTS KEPT AT MARCH 24TH REDUCTIONS; RATINGS CUT
7/4/2020Metals Inventories 070520METALS - - CHANGE IN CHINESE INVENTORY BEHAVIOR
7/4/2020Virus Comparison Macro 070420GLOBAL VIRUS DATA OR GOLD VERSUS CYCLICALS OR LONG VS. SHORT
7/1/2020WOR NKLA 070120WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES 19.05 MM SHARE INVESTMENT INTO NIKOLA MOTORS INVOLVES ELECTRICITY, HYDROGEN AND DIESEL PRICES
6/30/2020Metals Expansions Vol 61 063020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 61 JUNE SEES PROJECTS AGAIN MOVING FORWARDS AS CHINA REBOUNDS AND US MORE OPTIMISTIC
6/30/2020Virtual Conference June 30, 2020 063020HIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 30TH ZOOM WEBCASTS FOR WOLFDEN RESOURCES AND LARGO RESOURCES
6/29/2020X 062020U.S. STEEL FACES MANY CAPITAL NEEDS IN THE 2020 RECESSION
6/29/2020Steel Ind 062820STEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINA ROCKETS TO 62% OF WORLD STEEL OUTPUT IN MAY AND APRIL 2020
6/28/2020Forest Products 062820FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD AND CONTAINERBOARD HAVE MILD DOWNTURNS WITH OUTLOOKS FIRMER THAN BASE METALS
6/24/2020Virtual Conference June 23-24, 2020HIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 23-24 VIRTUAL WEBCAST MEETINGS
6/11/2020WOR 061120WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES OWNS 19.05 MM SHARES OF NKLA WORTH ABOUT $17/WOR SHARE NET 25% FOR INCOME TAXES
6/8/2020Fortescue Metals 060720FORTESCUE METALS PERFORMS SPLENDIDLY IN JUNE 2020 FY; IRON ORE MARKETS FIRM AS MANY SUPPLIERS FALL SHORT OF PRODUCTION TARGETS
6/6/2020Virtual Conference June 3-4, 2020VIRTUAL CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 3-4, 2020 WEBCASTS
6/5/2020Big Picture 060520METALS MARKET “BIG PICTURE” THOUGHTS
6/4/2020Spot Markets 030620SPOT MARKETS - - CHINESE STOCKPILE HOARDING NONFERROUS METALS WHILE MAINTAINING FULL METALS OUTPUT; PANDEMIC CRISIS ESCALATES IN THIRD WORLD
5/31/2020BHP 053020BHP SHARES REBOUND WITH BROAD FINANCIAL MARKETS
5/31/2020Metals Expansions Vol 60 053020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 60 MAY SEES VIRTUALLY FEW NEW PROJECTS AS SHUTDOWNS BEGIN TO MOUNT
5/31/2020Grupo Mexico 053020GRUPO MEXICO: CUTS ALL DIVIDENDS 50% WITH LOWER COPPER PRICES, WHILE TRANSPORTATION, COSTS AND CASH BALANCES EACH DO WELL
5/29/2020Virus Big Picture 052920METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - “BIG PICTURE” UNKNOWNS AND CERTAIN SHARE PRICE REBOUNDS TEMPT ME TO GO TO “HALF CASH”
5/29/2020SCCO 052920SOUTHERN COPPER: DIVIDENDS, EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET CUT WITH LOWER COPPER PRICES DESPITE DECENT INTERNAL DYNAMICS
5/19/2020Spot Markets 051920SPOT MARKETS - - WORLD AUTO SALES FALL 6 MM IN 1Q AND WE ESTIMATE AT LEAST AN 8 MM UNIT DECLINE IN 2Q 2020 FROM FROM ABOUT 22.5 MM/ QTR IN 2019
5/11/2020Gold Ind 051120GOLD MINING - - COMPARISON TO 1979-80 AND 2011 PRIOR GOLD PEAKSGOLD MINING - - COMPARISON TO 1979-80 AND 2011 PRIOR GOLD PEAKS
5/7/2020Norbord 050720NORBORD REPORTS LESS THAN EXPECTED VOLUMES AND PRICES ON BOTH CONTINENTS
5/6/2020KL 060620KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ENJOYS HIGH GOLD PRICES, BUT MAY DIP TO AS LOW AS 255,000 OZ JUNE QUARTER OUTPUT WITH PANDEMIC RESTRICTION
5/6/2020LPX 050620LOUISIANA-PACIFIC MARCH QUARTER VOLUMES AND PRICES FELL SHORT
5/5/2020ATI 050520ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES RICHER MIX IN BOTH SEGMENTS AS LONGTERM CONTRACTS AND BACKLOGS PRESERVE MOST PROFITABLE SALES
5/4/2020WY 050420WEYERHAEUSER OMITS DIVIDEND MAY 1ST TO STRENGTHEN BALANCE SHEET
5/2/2020Metals Expansions Vol 59 043020METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 59 APRIL SEES VIRTUALLY NO NEW PROJECTS NOR PERMANENT SHUTDOWNS AS UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS
4/28/2020BPH 042820BHP NAVIGATES DIFFICULT OPERATING CONDITIONS
4/27/2020PVG 042720PRETIUM RESOURCES NAMES JACQUES PERRON CEO; WILL HE KEEP THIRD PARTY AUTHORS OF NEGLIGENT TECHNICAL STUDIES ?
4/21/2020Wealth Effects 042120METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - BEHAVIORAL CHANGES TO REDUCE DEMAND IN CERTAIN SEGMENTS
4/20/2020Containerboard 042020CONTAINERBOARD LEAD INDICATORS OF PRICE HIKES ACCUMULATING
4/15/2020Metals Price Impairments 041520METALS - - BASE METALS, ENERGY AND STOCK PRICE DECLINES TRIGGER IMPAIRMENT CHARGES, COVENANT ISSUES OR DIVDEND CUTS
4/6/2020Domtar 040620DOMTAR TO ENJOY LOWER PULP AND PERSONAL CARE COSTS IN 2020
4/4/2020Impairments 033120METALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - IMPAIRMENTS LARGER THAN EXPECTED IN 2019 AT $31.5 BILLION AS NOTABLE LARGE PROJECTS SUFFER SETBACKS
4/3/2020Metals prices 040320METALS - - EXAMPLES OF EXTREME PRICE PHENOMENA; MORE OUTPUT CUTS TO COME
4/1/2020Gold 040120GOLD INDUSTRY - - A $2,000 TO $5,000 GOLD PRICE SCENARIO PLAUSIBLE IF PANDEMIC CONTINUES TO YEAR-END 2020
3/31/2020Metals Expansions Vo 58 033120METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 58 MARCH SEES EARLY SIGNS OF CAP EX CUTS, DELAYS AND HINTS OF A DELUGE OF CUTBACKS LATER
3/31/2020Spot Market 033120SPOT MARKETS - - WORLD AUTO SALES DOWN ABOUT ¼ IN MARCH QUARTER; METALS OUTPUT CUTS LIKE CRUDE OIL CUTS DRIBBLE OUT VERY SLOWLY
3/29/2020Forest Products wood 032920FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES FALL THIS WEEKEND AFTER BIG RUN
3/28/2020Macro Unknown 032820 MARCH 2020 IN THE CONTEXT OF PAST FINANCIAL CRISES
3/27/2020FCX 032720FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. FIRST MAJOR COMPANY TO OMIT DIVIDEND; JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL REFINED COPPER OUTUT UP 15.8% AND MINE OUTPUT UP 9.5%[purchase_link id="13117" text="Add to Cart" style="b
3/24/2020Metals and Copper 032420METALS - - SECOND ROUND OF EARNINGS ESTIMATE CUTS WITH LOWER DEMAND WITHOUT ENOUGH PRODUCTOIN CUTS
3/15/2020WY 031420WEYERHAEUSER UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT BASED ON SHARE PRICE DECLINE, RECENT STRONG HOUSING STARTS, DOUBLED OSB PRICES
3/13/2020BHP 031220BHP SUFFERS LOWER ENERGY SELLING PRICES, WHILE WE UPGRADE TO OVERWEIGHT AS SHARES FALL SHARPLY DESPITE MUCH LOWER COSTS
3/11/2020Gold, Metals, Wood Outlook 031120GOLD - - 50 BASIS POINT MARCH 3RD INTEREST RATE CUT, MARKET-BASED INTEREST RATE DECLINES OR TRUMP NEXT TAX CUT BENEFIT GOLD
3/9/2020Forest Products wood 030920FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICE “SUPER BOOM”
3/9/2020LPX 030920LOUISIANA-PACIFIC BENEFITS FROM RECORD LOW MORTGAGE RATES AND 13 YEAR PEAK IN HOUSING STARTS
3/6/2020NEM 030520NEWMONT GOLDCORP RATES OF RETURN ANALYZED IN TOTAL, FOR BODDINGTON AND A LOOK AT 50%-OWNED NORTE ABIERTO
3/4/2020Toronto PDAC Highlights 030420METALS - - HIGHLIGHTS OF TORONTO ANNUAL PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS ASSN CONVENTION
2/29/2020Spot Markets 022820SPOT MARKETS - - CORONAVIRUS CRUSHES 2020 FOR METALS, BUT USA SEEMS GOOD
2/29/2020NEM 022820NEWMONT GOLDCORP PENASQUITO MINE TOUR FEB. 26-27TH; FINANCIAL MODELS WITH SHORTER LIVES
2/29/2020Metals Expansions Vol 57 022920METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 57 FEBRUARY SEES 12 METALS EXPANSIONS AND 4 CLOSURES
2/17/2020FCX 021720FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. UPDATED PROVEN AND PROBABLE RESERVES A LITTLE SOFT
2/14/2020PVG 021320PRETIUM RESOURCES CHANGES MANAGEMENT WITHOUT FIRING THIRD PARTY AUTHORS OF NEGLIGENT TECHNICAL STUDIES
2/2/2020Metals Expansions Vol 56 METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 56 MOSTLY STEEL EXPANSIONS IN JANUARY WITH 18 NEW PROJECTS AND 10 RATIONALIZATIONS
1/29/2020Metals prices 012920CYCLICALS DEVASTATED BY CORONAVIRUS FEARS; SOME BASE METALS PRICE ESTIMATES CUT AND GOLD RAISED AGAIN
1/27/2020ARNC 012720ARCONIC GUIDES TO A $400 MM REVENUE DROP DUE TO 737MAX HALT
1/21/2020Alcoa 012020ALCOA SUFFERS FROM LOWER PRICES AND 1.2% ESTIMATED 2019 GLOBAL ALUMINUM MARKET SHRINKAGE IN 2019 WITH LOWER VEHICLE SALES
1/21/2020Alum IndALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - PACKAGING AND VEHICLE MARKETS TO INCREASE USAGES TO LEAD A REBOUND
1/16/2020PAAS 011620PAN AMERICAN SILVER HAS 1.2 BIL. OZ AG RESOURCES TRIPLE RESERVES AND 20.2 MM OZ AU RESOURCES QUINTUPLE AU RESERVES; MAIDEN LA COLORADA SKARN 102 MM OZ AG & 4.8 MMT ZN, PB AND CU
1/15/2020Metals Inventories 011520 METALS INVENTORIES FALL FOR ZINC AND COPPER, BUT RISE FOR ALUMINUM, NICKEL, LEAD AND TIN IN THE PAST MONTH
1/15/2020FCX 011520FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. BENEFITS FROM HIGHER GOLD PRICES; COPPER PRICES MAY BREAK OUT BEYOND OUR $3.25/LB 2021 ESTIMATE; FCX MERGER TALK
1/13/2020SPOT MARKETS 011320SPOT MARKETS - - COPPER AND ZINC EXCHANGE INVENTORIES FALL, WHILE ALUMINUM, NICKEL, LEAD AND TIN RISE; PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA BODES WELL
1/13/2020Forest Products 011320FOREST PRODUCTS - - NASCIENT SIGNS OF UPWARD PRICE BOOM MOMENTUM IN WOOD AND PAPER
1/8/2020Copper Ind 010820COPPER INDUSTRY - - GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND IMPROVES; EASING TRADE TENSIONS, LOW INTEREST RATES BENEFIT 2020 OUTLOOK
1/7/2020ARNC 010720ARCONIC SEC FORM 10 CIRCULAR FOR ARCONIC ROLLED PRODUCTS CORP.
1/6/2020Gold Ind 010620GOLD INDUSTRY - - DOLLAR WEAKER, GLOBAL MINE OUTPUT DOWN AND MORE GEOPOLITICAL UNKNOWNS
1/6/2020NEM 010620NEWMONT GOLDCORP HIGHER DIVIDEND AND SHARE BUYBACKS REDUCE “EXTRA MONEY” AVAILABLE FOR HIGHER RISK MEGA PROJECTS
1/3/2020Steel Ind 010320STEEL INDUSTRY - - ASIA DOMINATES WORLD DEMAND FOR IRON ORE, MET COAL, SCRAP STEEL AND THE 12 FERROALLOY
1/2/2020KL 010220KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD REVIEW OF OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSION OF DETAILS OF THE OFFERING CIRCULAR FOR DETOUR GOLD
12/31/2019Metals Expansions Vol 55 123119METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 55 STEEL EXPANSIONS DOMINATE LATE-2019 AND 278 OF 521 TOTAL CAPACITY EXPANSIONS WE IDENTIFIED FOR 2018 AND 2019
12/31/2019Steel Ind 123019STEEL INDUSTRY - - NOVEMBER STEEL IMPORTS FALL TO 30 YEAR LOWS
12/24/2019IP 122419INTERNATIONAL PAPER EARNINGS ESTIMATES REDUCED AS ALL SEGMENTS SOFTEN IN 2019 SECOND-HALF
12/20/2019Barrick Gold 122019BARRICK GOLD MAKES A PLETHORA OF ACTIONS TO IMPROVE ITS MINES
12/19/2019NEM 121919NEWMONT MINING DIGESTS GOLDCORP AND COMPLETES BARRICK NV JV
12/19/2019GOLD 121819GOLD INDUSTRY - - CENTRAL BANK DEMAND, LARGE ETF BUYS AND FALLING MINE OUTPUT HELP PRICES; CUT FIVE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
12/18/2019KL 121819KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD RATES OF RETURN DISCUSSION WITH REGARD TO DETOUR GOLD ACQUISITION
12/17/2019WY 121719WEYERHAEUSER SALE OF MONTANA LANDS FOR $230/ACRE AFTER SALE OF MICHIGAN LANDS FOR $541/ACRE
12/13/2019PAAS 121319PAN AMERICAN SILVER PUBLISHES MAIDEN LA COLORADA SKARN AT 102 MM OZ SILVER, 3.2 MMT ZN, 1.5 MMT PB AND 0.1 MMT CU
12/11/2019Spot Markets 121119SPOT MARKETS - - STEEL SCRAP MAKES $50+/T WINTER REBOUND, BUT ALUMINUM AND PAPER SCRAP REMAIN NEAR LOWS
12/10/2019KL 121019KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD DEFINES LIKELY ECONOMIC ORE GRADES AT ROBBIN’S HILL SATELLITE DEPOSIT AT FOSTERVILLE
12/5/2019Alumina Ltd 120519ALUMINA LTD SUFFERS WITH LOWER ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA PRICES
12/5/2019ARNC 120519ARCONIC SHARE PRICE GAINS REFLECT SPINOFFS, BUYBACKS, AND BETTER ENGINEERED PRODUCTS RESULT
12/4/2019Metals Expansions Vol 54 120319METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 54 32 STEEL AND 9 NONSTEEL NEW PLANTS IN NOVEMBER, AND 4 STEEL AND 5 NONFERROUS SHUTS
12/3/2019Steel Ind merger 120319STEEL INDUSTRY - - CLEVELAND-CLIFFS TO ACQUIRE AK STEEL
11/30/2019Gold Ind project streamings 112919GOLD INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF POSSIBLE LARGE GOLD OR SILVER STREAMING PROJECT POSSIBILITIES
11/29/2019Steel Ind 112919STEEL INDUSTRY - - IMPORT PENETRATON FALLS AND WILL FALL MORE WITH CAPACITY ADDITIONS
11/25/2019KL 112519KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ISSUES 77 MM SHARE TO ACCESS LOWER MARGIN 0.6+ MM OZ OUTPUT AND 15.4 MM OZ RESERVES AT DETOUR GOLD
11/22/2019Big River Steel 112219STEEL INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF VISIT NOVEMBER 21ST TO NEWEST STEEL MILL IN THE AMERICAS, BIG RIVER STEEL IN OSCEOLA, ARKANSAS
11/18/2019RIO 111819RIO TINTO - - COMPARISON OF IRON ORE QUALITY AND OUTPUTS IN 2019; SELLING PRICES UNDER PRESSURE IN CU, AL AND IRON ORE
11/17/2019Buybacks Dividends 111519SURVEY OF RECENT TRENDS IN SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
11/14/2019WOR 111419WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES PREDICTS MARGIN EXPANSION; OUR MODELS ADJUSTED FOR CONVERSION TO JV FOR ENGINEERED CABS UNIT
11/12/2019Short Sale Ideas 11219SEVERAL SHORT SALE IDEAS
11/8/2019Containerboard 110819FOREST PRODUCTS - - CONTAINERBOARD PRICE REALIZATIONS FELL MORE THAN WE EXPECTED THUS FAR IN 2019
11/8/2019PKG 110819PACKAGING CORPORATION EARNINGS ESTIMATES REDUCED DUE TO LOWER CONTAINERBOARD PRICES AND HIGHER TAX RATE
11/8/2019Metals Expansions Vol 53 METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 53 WE NOTE 6 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 16 SHUT OR DELAYED PLUS FOUR FOREST CLOSURES IN OCTOBE
11/6/2019KL 110619 KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ENJOYS NEW QUARTERLY RECORD OUTPUTS IN TOTAL AND AT FOSTERVILLE AS GOLD PRICES RISE
11/5/2019Forest Products wood prices 110519FOREST PRODUCTS - - PRICES DID NOT FALL SO SHARPLY IN 3Q WITH
HOUSING UPTICK, LOWER INTEREST RATES AND MILL CLOSURES
11/4/2019Spot Markets 110419SPOT MARKETS - - EXCHANGE INVENTORY LEVELS AT 2 DAYS OF WORLD CONSUMPTION FOR
LEAD, 3 FOR ZINC,6 DAYS FOR AL 7 DAYS FOR CU AND AT 10 DAYS FOR NI
10/30/2019Impairments 103019METALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - IMPAIRMENTS EXCEED $93 BILLION PRETAX IN 2016-19 FALLING FROM 2015 $123.5 BILLION RECORD
10/25/2019WY 102519WEYERHAEUSER SALE OF MICHIGAN TIMBER FUNDS MUCH OF CASH FLOW TO PAY 2020 DIVIDEND AS WOOD PRICES REBOUND
10/24/2019Fortescue 102419FORTESCUE METALS SEPTEMBER QUARTER PRICING ABOUT $4/T BETTER THAN ESTIMATED; WE ENCOURAGE FORTESCUE TO LIST ON NYSE TO IMPROVE TRADING VOLUMES
10/22/2019Alum Ind 102219ALUMINUM INDUSTRY DEMAND GROWTH LEADS COMMODITIES; CONUNDRUM OF LOW ALUMINUM PRICES AS SUPPLIES FALL
10/16/2019WOR 101519WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES “SQUEEZED” BY HIGHER STEEL INPUT PRICES. BUT HIGHER EQUITY INCOME AND BUYBACKS OFFSET
10/15/2019Metals Inventories 101519METALS INVENTORIES FALL NEARER TO CRISIS SHORTAGES DUE TO FALLING OUTPUT AND FALLING REINVESTMENTS
10/10/2019ATI 101019ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES NICKEL PRICE BENEFITS FLAT-ROLLED OUTLOOK WHILE 737MAX DELAYS INTO 2020 HURT HIGH PERFORMANCE
10/10/2019Spot Markets 101019SPOT MARKETS - - GOLD BULLION ETF HOLDINGS BREAK 2012 RECORD IN SEPTEMBER
10/7/2019Free Cash Flow 100719METALS/PAPER REVIEW OF FREE CASH FLOW STOCKS; DISCUSSION OF LOWEST PRICE-TO-FREE CASH FLOW MULTIPLES
10/7/2019X 100719U.S. STEEL TO CONTROL BIG RIVER STEELTO LEVERAGE LARGE ESSTIMATED SYNERGIES; NEAR-TERM HOT-ROLLED SHEET SPOT PRICES PLUNGE TO $500/TON
10/4/2019Steel Ind 100319STEEL INDUSTRY - - MORE CAPACITY, “RESHORING,” RISING DEMAND AND FALLING IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
9/30/2019Steel Ind 093019STEEL INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF INTEGRATED STEELMAKERS
9/30/2019Metals Expansions Vol 52 093019METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 52 WE TABULATE 31 NEW METALS PLANTS MOSTLY IN STEEL AND 13 SHUT OR DELAYED IN SEPT.
9/30/2019Copper Ind 093019COPPER INDUSTRY - - GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND AND SUPPLY IMPROVE; DATA REVISIONS TO 2017-18 SUGGEST TIGHTER CONDITIONS
9/30/2019Anglo American 093019ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE MINES MORE IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO EARNINGS MIX WITH HIGHER LUMP PREMIUMS AND PRICES
9/28/2019Glencore 092819GLENCORE PLC TRADING, AFRICAN COPPER AND COBALT SUFFER IN 2019
9/25/2019BHP 092519BHP GUIDES ESSENTIALLY TO A “STEADY STRATEGY” FOR THE FUTURE
9/24/2019Grupo Mexico 092418GRUPO MEXICO: LOWER COPPER PRICES AND LOW EXPECTATIONS CONTRAST TO FALLING CU COSTS, FIRM CU OUTPUT AND GOOD TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE RESULTS
9/19/2019Gold Ind Denver Highlights 091819GOLD INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF DENVER GOLD FORUM 2019
9/13/2019AEM 091319AGNICO EAGLE MINES LONG-TERM MODELS UPDATED FOR GOLD PRICES OR OUTPUT CHANGES
8/27/2019Metals Expansions Vol 51 082719METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 51 WE TABULATE 14 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 14 SHUT OR DELAYED IN AUGUST 2019 WITH TARIFF FEAR
8/27/2019Spot Markets 082719SPOT MARKETS - - WE OBSERVE 1.5 MMT OF NEW METAL-IN-CONCENTRATE INVENTORIES; TRADE SPATS WORSEN; FIRMNESS IN SEVERAL MARKETS CONTINUES DESPITE TRADE MESS
8/27/2019LPX 082619LOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODELED WITH A HIGHER LONG TERM OSB PRICE REALIZATION
8/27/2019Fortescue 082619FORTESCUE METALS GENERATES EXCELLENT CASH AND PAYS LARGE DIVIDENDS
8/23/2019WY 082319WEYERHAEUSER CANADIAN TIMBER RIGHTS COULD BE KEY “HIDDEN ASSET”
8/23/2019Forest Products OSB 088819FOREST PRODUCTS - - PRICES HIGHER THAN TRADE JOURNAL BENCHMARKS
8/23/2019Norbord 082219NORBORD MODEL UPDATED WITH A $245/000 SF UP FROM $234/000 SF LONG TERM OSB PRICE
8/21/2019Tech 082019TECK RESOURCES EXECUTES QUEBRADA BLANCA SULFIDES ON A STRONG FINANCIAL FOOTING
8/18/2019ANTO 081819ANTOFAGASTA PLC: ENJOYS LARGE YTD OUTPUT GAINS AND PLANS MORE EXPANSIONS TO OFFSET SCHEDULED GRADE DECLINES
8/18/2019Metals Peru Regulation 081919METALS INDUSTRY - - PERU COURTS CONVICT PROSECUTIONS AGAINST MINE PROTEST OR POLITICAL LEADERS
8/16/2019X 081519U.S. STEEL UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT OWING TO ANTICIPATED HIGHER IRON ORE, SCRAP STEEL AND ELECTRODE PRICES BENEFITING ITS INTEGRATED STEELMAKING ECONOMICS
8/16/2019FCX 081619FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AS SHARE PRICE AND COPPER PRICE FALL TO LEVELS WITH BETTER RISK-REWARD
8/16/2019HudBay 081519HUDBAY MINERALS: UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT AS SHARE PRICE FALLS TO ATTRACTIVE DISCOUNT TO NPV; ROSEMONT DELAY TO BUILD CASH
8/13/2019WRK 081319WESTROCK CLOSE TO COMPLETING MAJOR CAPITAL PROJECTS; LARGER DEBT PAYDOWNS IN 2020 AND 2021
8/12/2019Wolfden zinc 080912 ZINC INDUSTRY - - COMMENTS FROM AUGUST 9th VISIT TO WOLFDEN RESOURCES PICKETT MOUNTAIN DEPOSIT IN NORTHERN MAINE
8/4/2019ATI 080219ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES CAPITAL GAINS ENHANCE REPORTED EARNINGS AS OPERATING EARNINGS DO NOT MATCH 2018
8/2/2019Fortescue 080219FORTESCUE METALS BENEFITS FROM HIGHER PRICES AND DIVERSE CORPORATE PROGRESS
8/1/2019KL 080119KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD CUTS COSTS AS OUTPUT AND EARNINGS BOOM
7/31/2019SCCO 073019SOUTHERN COPPER: JULY 5TH PERMIT ISSUANCE FOR TIA MARIA TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD PROTESTS; PROJECT EXECUTION SCHEDULES IN PERU IN DOUBT
7/30/2019Metals Expansions 50 073019METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 50 WE TABULATE 26 NEW METALS PLANTS MOSTLY IN STEEL AND 7 SHUT OR DELAYED MOSTLY IN NONFERROUS METALS IN JULY 2019
7/30/2019Spot Markets 072919SPOT MARKETS - - OUTPUT CUTS CAUSE PRICE SURGES FOR NI, HOT-ROLLED SHEET STEEL IN U.S. AND WOOD PRICES IN U.S.; STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS HELP NONFERROUS METALS TOO
7/26/2019WY 072719WEYERHAEUSER TIMBER EXPORT SALES TO ASIA FALL AS WOOD PRICES WEAK; CASH FLOWS, DEBT AND FEWER ACRES THREATEN DIVIDEND
7/24/2019FCX 072419FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. LOOKS TO 2021 COPPER OUTPUT REBOUND AND BEYOND
7/24/2019Forest Products vs plastics 072319FOREST PRODUCTS - - TREND TO MORE NATIONS REFUSING TO ACCEPT PLASTICS WASTER
7/18/2019PAAS 071819PAN AMERICAN SILVER CASH FLOWS DISCOUNTED AT 9% DOWN FROM 11.5% DISCOUNT RATE
7/17/2019RIO 071719RIO TINTO - - - IRON ORE PRICE BOOMS; OYU TOLGOI PROJECT RETURNS IN DOUBT WITH GROUND STABILITY REDESIGN, DELAYS AND HIGHER COSTS[purchase_link id="12678" text=
7/15/2019Dividends 071519DIVIDEND LARGE PAYOUT COMPANIES
7/14/2019Spot Markets 071319SPOT MARKETS - - FOUNDATION FOR FOURTH-QUARTER OR 2020 PRICE RALLIES
7/12/2019FNV 071119FRANCO-NEVADA PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO FALLS WITH COBRE PANAMA REVENUES AND GOLD PRICE REBOUND
7/10/2019ATI 071019ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES SOME DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS DO POORLY
7/9/2019Forest Products Wood 070919FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD IS NOT YET “GOOD,” BUT REBOUNDS
7/8/2019Metals Stimulus 070819METALS - - COMPARISON OF 1982 AND 2009 “LIQUIDITY RALLIES” IN NONFERROUS METALS PRICES
7/3/2019OR 070319OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES MODEL UPDATED FOR LOWER DIAMOND PRICES AND 12.4 MM SHARE REPURCHASES
7/3/2019Spot Markets 070319SPOT MARKETS - -CONTAINERBOARD SCRAP BREAKS BELOW MARCH 2009 LOWS; MANY PRICE LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE BUYING OR DISCOURAGE DESTOCKING
7/2/2019Metals Brazil Senate Proposals 070219METALS - - BRAZIL’S SENATE WANTS 40% TAX ON MINING, ALL TAILINGS DAMs ILLEGAL, ENVIRONMENTAL LAW AND MURDER INDICTMENTS
7/2/2019Metals Expansion Vol 49 063019METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 49 WE TABULATE 12 NEW METALS PLANTS MOSTLY IN STEEL AND 8 SHUT OR DELAYED MOSTLY IN NONFERROUS METALS IN JUNE 2019
6/29/2019Copper Ind Cascabel Ecuador 062919COPPER INDUSTRY - - MANY DOUBTS IN SOLGOLD PLC PRELIMINARY
6/27/2019Vale 062619VALE TO APPLY TO MINE 50 MMT MORE AT CARAJAS, WET PROCESSING, 30 MMT BRUCUTU RESTART AND BRAZILIAN PROCEEDINGS
6/24/2019Conf Highlights Large Cap track 062419CONFERERNCE HIGHLIGHTS JUNE 19TH “LARGE CAP” TRACK
6/20/2019Conf Highlights Mid-Cap 062019CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS JUNE 20TH MID-CAP TRACK
6/17/2019Lundin Mining 061719LUNDIN MINING CHAPADA ACQUISITION AND LOWER METALS PRICES BUILT INTO OUR MODELS
6/17/2019Gold Ind earnings sensitivity 060619GOLD INDUSTRY SENSITIVITY OF VALUATIONS TO A $50/OZ PRICE GAIN
6/16/2019Conf Highlights Base Metals track 061919HIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 19TH CONFERENCE “BASE METALS” TRACK
6/16/2019Vale 051519VALE MOVES TO “DRY PROCESSING” REMOVES LESS IMPURITIES TO DISPOSE OF FEWER TAILINGS
6/16/2019Conf Moderators Remarks 061619MODERATORS REMARKS TO OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND PARTY ON THE JERSEY SHORE
6/15/2019Golds vs Industrials 061519GOLD INDUSTRY LOW IN DIVIDENDS, CASH FLOW, ROE & RETURNS; WE CITE 11 INDUSTRIALS AT < 9X FREE CASH OR 15 WITH YIELDS > 4%
6/14/2019Gold Ind anxiety 061419GOLD INDUSTRY - - MEGA ANXIETY RALLY PROMPTS US TO DOWNGRADE
SEVERAL COMPANIES NEARER TO OUR PRICE TARGETS
6/10/2019FCX tailings dam sites reviewedFREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TAILINGS DAM DISCLOSURES AND SCRUTINY
6/7/2019AEM 060719AGNICO EAGLE MINES SHOULD BE NEAR A 5% ROE IN 2020 OR 2021 WITH
AMARUQ AND MELIADINE CONTRIBUTING OUTPUT
6/6/2019Rio 060619RIO TINTO - - - WINU EXPLORATION UPDATE; IRON ORE AND MET COAL
REMAIN STRONG WHILE CU AND AL FADE
6/4/2019WPM 060419WHEATON PRECIOUS ENJOYS FIRM GOLD AND PALLADIUM PRICES BUT
LOWER COBALT AND SILVER PRICES
6/3/2019McEwen 053119 JTACRMcEWEN MINING- - BLACK FOX MINE SITE VISIT MAY 22ND HIGHLIGHTS;
MANY CORPORATE OPPORTUNITIES AT HIGHER PRICES NEEDING FUNDING
6/3/2019TMRC 060319 JTACRTEXAS MINERAL RESOURCE CORP. DUE TO UPDATE ITS RESOURCES TO
INCLUDE ANOTHER SEVEN ELEMENTS AND SIX SULFATE MINERALS
5/31/2019Metals Expansion Vol 48 053119METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 48 WE TABULATE 16 NEW METALS
PLANTS AND 2 SHUT OR DELAYED IN MAY 2019; EXPANSIONS MOSTLY
ARE STEEL & COPPER SMELTING, AND OUTAGES IRON ORE
5/29/2019PVG 052919PRETIUM RESOURCES UPDATES LIFE-OF-MINE PLAN AND RESERVES LAST
UPDATED IN 2016
5/28/2019Detour Gold mine visit 052819DETOUR GOLD - - HIGHLIGHTS OF VISIT TO DETOUR GOLD MINE MAY 23RD
5/27/2019Copper Ind 052719COPPER INDUSTRY - - GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND REPORTED DOWN 7.6% IN
THE 2019 FIRST-QUARTER
5/27/2019Iron Ore 052519IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF IRON ORE PORT CAPACITIES
5/26/2019Forest Products wood prices 052419FOREST PRODUCTS - - 2018-19 WOOD VOLUMES ABOUT 80% OF 2004 PEAK
5/23/2019Gold Ind 052319GOLD INDUSTRY - - NEWMONT A POTENTIAL CONSOLIDATOR OF KNOWN
REFRACTORY GOLD DEPOSITS IN THE TIMMONS, ONTARIO VICINITY
5/20/2019Fortescue diversification 052019 FORTESCUE METALS - - DIVERSIFICATION LONG-TERM STRATEGY AND MANAGEMENT EVOLUTION TO 3RD CEO
5/17/2019CENX 051719CENTURY ALUMINUM WORKS TO CUT COSTS AS PRICES FELL
5/17/2019Alumina Ltd 051719ALUMINA LTD SUFFERS WITH LOWER ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA PRICES
5/14/2019GPK 051419GRAPHIC PACKAGING INCREASES BUYBACKS AND REPORTS STRONG
QUARTER; EBIT MARGIN INCREASED 0.1% TO 8.9% LONG TERM
5/14/2019Fortescue 051419FORTESCUE METALS BENEFITS FROM HIGHER PRICES AND DIVERSE CORPORATE PROGRESS
5/12/2019Spot Markets 051019SPOT MARKETS - -U.S. MATERIALS DEMAND FALLS; STEEL, ALUMINUM, ALUMINA, NICKEL
AND WOOD PRICES FALL TO FORCE OUTPUT CUTS; CONTAINERBOARD OUTPUT CUTS MADE
5/10/2019Vale 5/10/2019VALE HAS EXCELLENT EBITDA AND MARGINS IN 1Q DESPITE LOUSY
VOLUMES IN EVERY SEGMENT; INITIAL $4.7 BILLION CHARGES LARGE
5/8/2019Forest Products OSB pricing margins 050819FOREST PRODUCTS - - FIRST-QUARTER ORIENTED STRAND BOARD
REALIZED PRICES EXCEED TRADE JOURNAL BENCHMARKS
5/7/2019KL 050719KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD CUTS COSTS AS OUTPUT AND EARNINGS BOOM
5/6/2019Containerboard 050619

CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - IP AND WRK ENJOY HIGHER PRICE REALIZATIONS WITH
NEW 2019 LARGER CUSTOMER CONTRACTS AND FEWER EXPORT TONS
5/5/2019X 050319U.S. STEEL HIGHER 2019 CONTRACT PRICES OFFSET VERY LITTLE OF THE PLUNGE IN SPOT
PRICES AND SLOVAK MARGINS FALL DEEPLY WITH HIGHER PURCHASED IRON ORE PRICES
5/3/2019Detour Gold 050319DETOUR GOLD - - RESTORED AS OVERWEIGHT AFTER STRONG MARCH QUARTER WITH
IMPROVED COSTS, AND ALSO SHARE PRICE DECLINE
5/1/2019Metals Expansions Vol 47 043019METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 47 WE TABULATE 21 NEW METALS
PLANTS AND 7 SHUT OR DELAYED IN APRIL 2019; EXPANSIONS MOSTLY
ARE STEEL & COPPER, AND OUTAGES IRON ORE
5/1/2019Cameco 050119CAMECO: REVIEW OF GLOBAL PROGRESS OF RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
4/30/2019First Quantum 043019FIRST QUANTUM BEGINS COBRE PANAMA OPERATIONS; MANY
OPTIMIZATIONS TO FOLLOW
4/30/2019ARNC 043019ARCONIC TRANSITIONS TO FLAT-ROLLED AND ENGINEERED PRODUCTS &
FORGINGS SPINOFFSFOLLOWS “SLOW LIQUIDATION” STRATEGY
4/29/2019SCCO 042919SOUTHERN COPPER: COPPER PRICES LOWER THAN PAST ESTIMATES; CAP EX HIGHER; SOME
PROJECTS A LITTLE SLOWER; EXECUTION DRIVES TIMING OF GROWTH TO 2025
4/26/2019Forest Products 042019FOREST PRODUCTS - - MARCH HOUSING STARTS CONTINUE DECLINES; WOOD PRICES MAKE SPRING LOWS INSTEAD OF PEAKS
4/25/2019FCX 042519FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. LONE STAR DRILL INTERCEPTS EXCITING
4/25/2019AA 042519ALCOA SUFFERS FROM MARKET RECESSION FEARS FOR LME INGOT AND
FALLING ALUMINA PRICES, BUT SOME DATA ARE VERY FAVORABLE
4/23/2019ATI 042319ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT AGAIN AS ATI
CUT GUIDANCES FOR BOTH SEGMENTS FOR 2019
4/22/2019HudBay 042219HUDBAY MINERALS: ROSEMONT ADVANCES; COMMENTS FROM LALOR
MINE VISIT; LOWER EARNINGS ESTIMATES AS COPPER SOFT; CONSTANCIA
SLOW TO FINISH COMMUNITY DEALS
4/19/2019Gold Ind ROE 041919GOLD INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF RETURN ON EQUITY IN 2018
4/14/2019Spot Markets 041219SPOT MARKETS - - SCRAP STEEL PRICES FALL $20-$25/T IN APRIL; SCRAP PAPER DOWN;
VEHICLE SALES FALL IN MANY REGIONS; METALS INVENTORIES FALL FAST NONETHELESS
4/12/2019Copper Ind 041219COPPER INDUSTRY - - TEN COPPER PROJECTS ADVANCE AND ANOTHER
DOZEN OR MORE IN PLANNING IN USA
4/12/2019Iron Ore 041219IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - PRICES RISE MORE AS LOST OUTPUT STEADY AT
141.8 MMT IN 1.8 BILLION TONNE EXPECTED WORLD STEEL OUTPUT
4/9/2019AU 040919ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI STABLE OUTLOOK; OBUASI RESTART IN GHANA
COULD BE 10% MORE OUTPUT IN 2021; WE MODEL 1 OF 3 ASSET SALES
4/7/2019ATI 040719ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES HAS SEVERAL NEAR-TERM HEADWINDS
4/3/2019GUYFF 040319GUYANA GOLDFIELDS FOLLOWUP TO NI 43-101 STUDY FILED MARCH 29TH
4/3/2019Iron Ore 040319IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - LOST OUTPUT RISES ANOTHER 10 MMT AT VALE, 14
MMT AT RIO AND 7 MMT AT BHP TOTAL 141.8 MMT RELATIVE TO 1.8
BILLION TONNE EXPECTED WORLD STEEL OUTPUT
4/2/2019Forest Products 040219FOREST PRODUCTS - - EU BANS 10 SINGLE-USE PLASTICS IN 2021
4/1/2019Vale demerger 040119VALE SIMPLIFICATION A VIRTUOUS LONG-TERM GOAL; WE ADVOCATE A
DEMERGER INTO FOUR ENTITIES AFTER ADDRESSING 2015 AND 2019 DAMS
3/31/2019Metals Expansions Vol 46 METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 46 WE TABULATE 18 NEW METALS
PLANTS AND 4 SHUT OR DELAYED IN MARCH 2019; EXPANSIONS
MOSTLY ARE STEEL & AL, AND OUTAGES IRON ORE AND COPPER
3/31/2019Vale 033019VALE FOURTH-QUARTER REPORTS FILED ALMOST 2 MONTHS LATE; PEAK
OUTAGES AT 120.8 MMT WITH SAMARCO; FORECASTS 320 MMT SALES
3/28/2019SAND 032819SANDSTORM GOLD’S 30%-OWNED HOD MADEN A FEATURE DISCOVERY
3/23/2019KL 032519KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ERIC SPROTT RETIRES AS CHAIRMAN; A BUYING
OPPORTUNITY
3/23/2019Forest Products 032219FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES FALL COUNTER-SEASONALLY IN
MARCH AND REGISTER MINIMAL GAINS FROM JUNE-TO-DECEMBER LOWS
3/20/2019Iron Ore 032019IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - VALE AND SAMARCO NOW IDLE 110 MMT LARGE
RELATIVE TO 1.8 BILLION TONNE EXPECTED WORLD STEEL OUTPUT
3/19/2019RIO 030519RIO TINTO - - - IRON ORE OUTLOOK IMPROVES, WHILE CU AND AL LESS
3/18/2019KL 031819KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD PROGRESS ON RESERVES, OUTPUT, COSTS,
HOLLOWAY, HOLLOWAY ROYALTY AND COSMO/LANTERN
3/11/2019NEM-Barrick JV 031119GOLD INDUSTRY - - BARRICK 61.5% AND NEWMONT 38.5% NEVADA JV
3/7/2019IP 030619INTERNATIONAL PAPER EARNINGS ESTIMATES RAISED FOR PRINTING
PAPERS, CELLULOSE FIBERS AND SHARE BUYBACKS
3/6/2019Prospector Conv Highlights 030619METALS - - TORONTO ANNUAL PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS ASSN.
CONVENTION HIGHLIGHTS
3/3/2019FCX 030119FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TO STRENGTHEN ASSETS AND FINANCES;
COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES CUT; LONE STAR AND EL ABRA MILLS
3/3/2019Spot Markets 0300119SPOT MARKETS - - TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH CHINA, CANADA, MEXICO, EU AND NUCLEAR
IMPASSES WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN FRIGHTEN EXPECTATIONS
3/1/2019Metals Expansions Vol 45 022819METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 45 WE TABULATE 6 NEW METALS
PLANTS AND 8 SHUT OR DELAYED IN FEBRUARY 2019
3/1/2019RGLD 022519ROYAL GOLD BUYS SILVER STREAM ON THE KHOEMACAU COPPER-SILVER PROJECT IN BOTSWANA; OTHER MODEL CHANGES HURT PRICE TARGET.
2/27/2019Domtar 022719DOMTAR ESTIMATES RAISED DUE TO HIGHER 2019 ONWARDS ESTIMATED
PAPER PRICE REALIZATIONS
2/25/019NEM Barrick 022519GOLD INDUSTRY - - PRO AND CON VIEWS ON A NEM-BARRICK MERGER
2/21/2019WRK 022119WESTROCK GUIDES TO STRONG JUNE AND SEPTEMBER QUARTERS AFTER
SOFTER DECEMBER AND MARCH QUARTERS
2/21/2019Market Rally 022019METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - STOCK MARKET RALLY NEAR 20%;
BRAZIL HOLDS 98 MMT IRON ORE IDLE AND “UPSTREAM” DAMS ILLEGAL
2/18/2019Forest Products Wood 021819FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD DEMAND DULL, SPRING SEASONAL PRICE
REBOUNDS MINIMAL AND OUTPUT CUTS OVERDUE
2/15/2019Osisko GR 021519OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES HAS AGNICO-EAGLE WISHING FOR IT TO TRIM
THE 5% ROYALTY ON CANADIAN MALARTIC FOR UNDERGROUND ZONES
2/14/2019LPX 021419LOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODELED REPURCHASING $638 MM OF SHARES IN 2019 AT $27/SHARE
2/13/2019PKG 021319PACKAGING CORPORATION EARNINGS ESTIMATES REDUCED SLIGHTLY
DUE TO LOWER PACKAGING SEGMENT OPERATING MARGINS; PAPER
MARGINS INCREASED DUE TO PRICING.
2/13/2019Cameco 021319CAMECO: GLOBAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND SLOWER; CHINA ENERGY
BALANCES; PACE OF URANIUM MARKET IMPROVEMENT VERY GRADUAL
2/10/2019Metals and Elections 021019METALS - - ELECTION OUTCOMES IN 2020 IMPACT REGULATORY POLICY
2/8/2019Containerboard 020819FOREST PRODUCTS: CONTAINERBOARD PRICES ROSE ON AVERAGE
$72/TON IN 2018 INCLUDING CHANGES IN PRODUCT MIX
2/8/2019Iron Ore 020819IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - VALE IDLES 40+ MMT; REVIEW OF QUALITY
DIFFERENTIAL, PRICE, QUALITY AND INVESTMENT TRENDS
2/8/2019ARNC 020819ARCONIC FOLLOWS “SLOW LIQUIDATION” STRATEGY
2/7/2019Vale 020719VALE TESTIMONY BY TUV SUD ENGINEERS “RATS” ON VALE; ANOTHER 30
MMT ATOP 40 MMT NOW IDLED
2/3/2019Metals Expansions Vol 44 020119METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 44 WE TABULATE 15 NEW METALS
PLANTS AND 6 SHUTS AND FOREST PRODUCTS 4 EXPANSIONS AND 2
SHUTS IN JANUARY 2019
2/2/2019gpk 020119GRAPHIC PACKAGING INCREASES BUYBACKS AND REPORTS WEAK
QUARTER, BUT MARGINS EXCEED OUR CAUTIOUS 7.5% EBIT FIRST LOOK
1/31/2019Detour Gold 013119DETOUR GOLD - - SHARES REBOUND; THREE RECENT MERGERS WITHOUT PREMIUMS[p
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1/31/2019RGLD 013119ROYAL GOLD MEETS OUR PRICE OBJECTIVE
1/30/2019NEM Continental 013019NEWMONT MINING BENEFITS AS 19.9%-OWNED CONTINENTAL GOLD
INCREASES RESOURCES
1/30/2019ABX 013019BARRICK GOLD TOTAL RESERVES AND RESOURCES MODELED TO FALL TO
84 MM OZS DOWN FROM 205 MM OZS AFTER $6.2 BILLION IN ASSET SALES
1/30/2019Vale 013019VALE TO SHUT 40 MMT TO REPLACE ALL 10 “UPSTREAM” TAILINGS DAMS [p
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1/28/2019Vale 012519VALE SUFFERS HUMILIATION OF ANOTHER TAILINGS DAM FAILURE
1/25/2019ABX 012419BARRICK GOLD SIMULATED SELLING MANY ASSETS AND SIMPLIFYING
1/24/2019Spot Markets 011719SPOT MARKETS - - SCRAP STEEL, SCRAP AL AND WOOD PLUNGE COUNTER-SEASONALLY
1/23/2019Metals Prices 012319METALS PRICE ESTIMATES REDUCED DUE TO SLOWING WORLD ECONOMY
1/22/2019Arconic 012219ARCONIC POSSIBLE EXPOSURES IN GRENFELL TOWER INQUIRY
1/15/2019NEM 011519NEWMONT MINING ACQUIRES GOLDCORP TO APPOACH 8 MM OZ OUTPUT
1/11/2019Domtar 011119DOMTAR ENJOYS “CHRISTMAS” ON JANUARY 10TH AS SANTA BRINGS LATE
GOOD FORTUNE WITH CLOSURE OF 630,000 TON COMPETITOR
1/9/2019Steel Ind 010919STEEL INDUSTRY - - DECLINE IN SCRAP STEEL PRICES IN JANUARY
FINALIZE AT $30-$80/T OR ABOUT 10%-20%
1/9/2019Cash Flow Study 010419METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - “FREE CASH FLOW STUDY” REFINED TO “PRUNE” THE 25 STOCKS AT 11% TO > 25% FREE CASH FLOW YIELDS
1/8/2019KL 010819KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD RECORD OUTPUT AT 39.7 G/T FOSTERVILLE AND 25.9 G/T MACASSA RECORD ORE GRADES AND LOW TONS

1/7/2019Steel Ind 010719STEEL INDUSTRY - - DECLINE IN SCRAP STEEL PRICES IN JANUARY
1/2/2019LPX 010219LOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODELED WITH LOWER Q4 2018 AND 2019 OSB PRICE
REALIZATIONS
1/1/2019GPK 123118GRAPHIC PACKAGING COMPETITORS CONSOLIDATE AND TO MODERNIZE
12/31/2018Metals Expansions Vol 43 123118METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 43 302 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 50
SHUTS AND FOREST PRODUCTS 85 EXPANSIONS AND 9 SHUTS IN 2018
12/31/2018Metals Green New Deal 123118METALS INDUSTRY - - “GREEN NEW DEAL” A RISK FACTOR
12/28/2018Gold 122818GOLD INDUSTRY - - TWELVE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES IN
JUNE 2019 TO JUNE 2020 INFLUENCE THE U.S. DOLLAR, BONDS, STOCKS
12/21/2018Cash Flow study 122118METALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - COMPARISONS OF ESTIMATED 2019
FREE CASH FLOWS SUGGESTS 28 COMPANIES UNDERVALUED
12/21/2018Norbord 122118NORBORD MODEL UPDATED WITH LOWER Q4 2018 AND 2019 OSB PRICES,
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY LOWER COSTS
12/21/2018Nucor 122118NUCOR HAS A RECORD 2018, BUT NEW CAPACITY MAY ARRIVE JUST AS
TARIFFS EXPIRE TURNING THE “SUNNY DAY 2018” INTO A NIGHTMARE
12/21/2018Vale acquisitions 122118VALE ACQUISITION OF FERROUS RESOURCES STRENGTHENS MINAS
GERAIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
12/21/2018Vale 122118VALE OUTLOOK “STABLE” AS IT FINE TUNES FOUR CORE BUSINESSES
12/20/2018China output 122018METALS INDUSTRIES - - CHINA MAKES NO WINTER SHUTDOWNS AT ALL IN
STEEL AND ALUMINUM
12/19/2018ATI 121918ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES BENEFITS IF TARIFFS END OR EXCLUSIONS
WON
12/19/2018WOR 121918WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES “SQUEEZED” BY HIGHER STEEL INPUT PRICES.
BUT HIGHER EQUITY INCOME AND BUYBACKS OFFSET
12/17/2018Metals Inventories 121418METALS EXCHANGE INVENTORIES FELL 6.1 MMT SINCE MARCH 2013 PEAK
TO 2.8 MMT; ZN, PB AND CU EXCHANGE INVENTORIES VERY LOW

12/16/2018Forest ProductsFOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES MAKE NEW LOWS AS SEASONAL
BOTOOM PASSES; PRODUCTION CUTS LIKELY
12/16/2018WPM 121418WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CANADIAN REVENUE AGENCY SETTLEMENT
12/16/2018NEM 121318NEWMONT MINING OUTPUT PROJECTIONS REFLECT CONSISTENT, STEADY
EMPHASIS ON INTERNAL PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
12/11/2018Alcoa 121118ALCOA ALUMINA FORECASTS MAINTAINED BUT INGOT FORECASTS CUT
12/10/2018BHP 121018BHP GROUP RETURNS $10.4 BILLION IN CAPITAL FROM OIL & GAS ASSET
SALES; DISDAINS “PROCYCLICAL” INVESTMENTS
12/7/2018Domtar 120318DOMTAR CONSIDERS BETWEEN WHITE PAPER, PULP AND
CONTAINERBOARD PRODUCT MIX PATHS
12/3/2018Detour Gold 130318DETOUR GOLD - - TOSSING A COIN TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO VOTE FOR MANAGEMENT
BOARD SLATE, PAULSON BOARD NOMINEES OR SIMPLY TO SELL SHARES AND MOVE ON
12/2/2018Metals Expansions Vol. 42 113018METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 42 279 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 46
SHUTS AND FOREST PRODUCTS 85 EXPANSIONS AND 9 SHUTS NOV. YTD
11/30/2018Pan Am Silver 113018PAN AMERICAN SILVER CASH FLOWS DISCOUNTED AT 11.5% RATE WITH
58% OF EBITDA EXPOSED PROPOSED MINING LAW REFORM IN MEXICO
11/30/2018KL 113018KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD COMMENTS FROM OUR SECOND VISIT TO
FOSTERVILLE ON NOVEMBER 29TH
11/24/2018bhp 112418BHP GROUP RETURNS $10.4 BILLION IN CAPITAL FROM OIL & GAS ASSET
SALES; DISDAINS “PROCYCLICAL” INVESTMENTS
11/23/2018Spot Markets 112318SPOT MARKETS - - “RECESSION PRICES” AND WORRIES, BUT INVENTORIES KEEP FALLING
AND U, MN, ALUMINA, MET COAL, THERMAL COAL, N, PHOSPHATE AND POTASH PRICES UP
11/16/2018SAND 111618SANDSTORM GOLD UPS ANTE TO 15.8 MM MORE AFTER COMPLETING 2.5
MM SHARE BUYBACK
11/16/2018RGLD 111618ROYAL GOLD NET DEBT LOWERED AND KEY ASSETS UPDATED
11/16/2018PAN AM SILVER 11618PAN AMERICAN SILVER RESEARCH COVERAGE INITIATED AT
OVERWEIGHT INVESTMENT RATING
11/13/2018WRK 111318WESTROCK TO INCREASE CAP EX 50% IN 2019 AND MAKES CAUTIOUS
DECEMBER QUARTER GUIDANCE DESPITE GOOD SEPTEMBER RESULTS
11/13/2018Metals and elections 111318METALS MARKETS IMPACTED BY SEVERAL POLITICAL EVENT VARIABLES
11/12/2018Tahoe 110918TAHOE RESOURCES: GUATEMALAN CONSULTATION TO BEGIN; GOLD MINE
OUTPUT AND COSTS BELOW ANNUAL GUIDANCE THUS FAR IN 2018
11/9/2018ATI 110918ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INVESTOR DAY GUIDANCE ABOVE OUR
ESTIMATES
11/1/2018GPK 110118GRAPHIC PACKAGING COVERAGE INITIATED DUE TO FREE CASH FLOWS
AND FAVORABLE RETURNS FROM CONSOLIDATING SMALL COMPETITORS
11/1/2018CF 110118CF INDUSTRIES BENEFITS FROM ITS PAST EXPANSIONS, BUYBACKS,
CHINA’S POLLUTION CONTROLS AND HIGHER OVERSEAS ENERGY COSTS
10/30/2018ABX Randgold 103018BARRICK GOLD DILUTES ITS “AMERICAS” APPEAL WITH RANDGOLD
10/30/2018WRK 103018WESTROCK WINS ANTITRUST APPROVAL TO ACQUIRE KAPSTONE WITH NO
ASSET SALES; KAPSTONE’S EARNINGS NEARLY TRIPLE
10/29/2018Metals Expansions Vol 41METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 41 268 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 45
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 78 EXPANSIONS AND 8
SHUTS OCTOBER YTD
10/29/2018Spot Markets 102918SPOT MARKETS - - SHARE PRICES AND SPOT PRICES PLUNGE ON EXCHANGES; NONEXCHANGE
TRADED URANIUM, MN, ALUMINA GRAPHITE AND MET COAL FIRM
10/23/2018ATI 10/23/2018ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES TOLL-ROLLING STRATEGY CYCLICALLY OR
COMPETITIVELY VOLATILE AND VULNERABLE
10/22/2018Rio Tinto 102218RIO TINTO - - - DISTRIBUTION OF NEXT $4 BILLION IN GRASBERG AND
DUNKERQUE PROCEEDS AND NEXT BIG CAP EX PROJECTS FOR 2019
10/22/2018Alum Ind Alumina 102218ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA MARKET DYNAMICS
10/18/2018Tax Rates, Politics and Trump Music 101818METALS - - PRO-BUSINESS 21% INCOME TAX RATES, DEREGULATION, PROENERGY,
PRO-MINING, STEEL & AL TARIFFS SURVIVE 2018 AND 2020 VOTES
10/16/2018Alum 101618ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - COST ESCALATIONS LARGE AND SOME PAST
SALES CONTRACTS PREVENT COST RECOVERIES
10/13/2018Wood 101218FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICE DECLINES LARGER THAN EXPECTED;
NO RUSH TO UPGRADE LPX OR OSB BACK TO OVERWEIGHT
10/12/2018Mosaic 101218MOSAIC CORP. ENJOYS MILD REBOUNDS IN PHOSPHATE AND POTASH
PRICES; VALE FERTILIZER ASSETS PROFITABLE
10/12/2018Spot Markets 101118SPOT MARKETS - - INVENTORIES MAKE NEW LOWS; NON-EXCHANGE TRADED URANIUM, MN,
ALUMINA GRAPHITE AND MET COAL FIRM WHLE EXCHANGE LISTED METALS PRICES SOFT
10/12/2018Containerboard 101218CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY SENTIMENT SWINGS FAR BEARISH; WE
UPGRADE PKG AND IP TO OVERWEIGHT
10/9/2018Century Alum 100918CENTURY ALUMINUM MAKES SIX YEAR ALUMINA SUPPLY CONTRACT
10/08/2018FIRST QUANTUM 100818FIRST QUANTUM MAY REFOCUS ON COBRE PANAMA OPTIMIZATION “BY
PROCESS OF ELIMINATION” DUE TO WORSE POLITICAL RISKS ELSEWHERE
10/08/2018Copper Ind EV simulation 100818COPPER INDUSTRY - - TAKING A STAB AT GLOBAL INCREMENTAL COPPER
DEMAND FROM ELECTRIC VEHICLES
10/7/2018Copper Ind D-S 100518COPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND DATA IN CHINA AND RUSSIA A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE ROW LANGUISHES
10/05/2018KL 010518KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LONG TERM MACASSA THROUGHPUT REDUCED TO
1,750 MTPD USING A SINGLE NEW SHAFT FROM 2,000 MTPD FROM TWO
SHAFTS, BUT AT HIGHER ORE GRADES
10/03/2018AA 100318ALCOA TO BENEFIT FROM CLOSURES IN BRAZIL AND CHINA; METAL
PRICES COULD EXCEED $1.39/LB JUNE 1988 QUARTERLY AVERAGE
10/01/2018Metals Expansions Vol 40 092818METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 40 255 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 41
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 68 EXPANSIONS AND 7
SHUTS SEPTEMBER YTD
09/30/2018FNV 093018FRANCO NEVADA UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL AND FIRST QUANTUM STUDIES
INCREMENTAL EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES IN PANAMA
9/27/2018South32 092718SOUTH32 ENJOYS UNIQUE PRODUCT MIX EXPOSURE TO STRONG NONEXCHANGE
LISTED COMMODITY PRICES; MN MARKET DISCUSSION
9/26/2018Gold Ind 092618GOLD INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF DENVER GOLD FORUM IN COLORADO
SPRINGS
9/20/2018Gold Ind 092018GOLD INDUSTRY - - PREVIEW OF COLORADO SPRINGS “DENVER GOLD
FORUM” SEPT 23-26TH
9/20/2018GG 092018GOLDCORP - - HIGHLIGHTS FROM SEPT. 18TH VISIT TO ELEONORE MINE
9/14/2018Hudbay 091418HUDBAY MINERALS: BALANCE SHEET IMPROVES AS ROSEMONT PERMITS
STALL CAP EX AND CONSTANCIA SLOW TO FINISH COMMUNITY DEALS
9/12/2018ATI 091218ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES OUTLOOK IMPROVES IN HIGH PERFORMANCE
MATERIALS AND COMPONENTS; TSINGSHAN JV UNCLEAR
9/11/2018Alcoa 091118ALCOA: ALUMINA PRICES SQUEEZE SMELTERS TO CREATE LARGE
MINORITY INTEREST AND AUSSIE TAXES; NET LIABILITIES PAYDOWNS
9/10/2018tECK 091018TECK RESOURCES COMMENTS FROM SEPT. 4-5TH FORT HILLS OIL SANDS
TRIP NORTH OF FORT McMURRAY, ALBERTA
9/2/2018Spot Markets 083118SPOT MARKETS - - STRONG U.S. DOLLAR DEFLATES PRICES, CHINESE DESTOCK AND
EXCHANGE INVENTORIES FALL TO 3.378 MMT TO MATCH DECEMBER 2008 LEVELS
8/31/2018Metals Expansions Vol 39 083118METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 39 226 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 39
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 62 EXPANSIONS AND 7
SHUTS AUGUST YTD
8/31/2018Alumina Ltd 083118ALUMINA LTD: HIGHER 2019 ONWARDS ALUMINA PRICES DRIVE HIGHER
EARNINGS WITH SINGLE TAXATION OF ALUMINA LTD
8/25/2018WRK 082518WESTROCK FAVORABLE LEAD INDICATORS
8/24/2018Gold Ind losers 082418GOLD INDUSTRY - - OVER 50 GOLD STOCKS MAKE NEW FIVE YEAR LOWS
8/24/2018SAND 082418SANDSTORM GOLD PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO A HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE
8/23/2018China Pollution 082318METALS & OTHER RESOURCES BENEFITS FROM CHINA POLLUTION RULES
8/23/2018Tahoe 082318TAHOE RESOURCES: FOUR GUATEMALAN NEWS ARTICLES; SITUATION
SIMILAR WITH NEW CEO; JULY METALS PRICE CUTS
8/22/2018Norbord 082218NORBORD MODEL UPDATED WITH LOWER OSB PRICES, PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY LOWER COSTS
8/20/2018Metals ratings changes 082018METALS - - U.S. STEEL AND ROYAL GOLD UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL FROM
UNDERWEIGHT
8/20/2018Gold Ind 082018GOLD INDUSTRY - - DIVERSE COMMOITIES SUFFER WITH STRONG DOLLAR
8/16/2018LPX 081618LOUISIANA-PACIFIC REPURCHASES 1.4 MM SHARES IN JUNE QUARTER
8/15/2018WY 081518WEYERHAEUSER FIELD TRIP TO EUGENE, OREGON TIMBER FARM AND
SAWMILL; WY MATCHES 2004 PRIOR RECORD WOOD PRODUCTS EBIT
8/12/2018Spot Markets 081218SPOT MARKETS - - CHINESE DESTOCK AL, CU, ZN, IRON ORE AND OTHERS SELLING INTO THE
DECLINING MARKETS RAISING CASH TO PAY DEBTS OR FUND OTHER PRIORITIES
8/12/2018Teck 081218TECK RESOURCES ENJOYS FIRM MET COAL MARKET AND FAVORABLE
BITUMEN COSTS, WHILE CU AND ZN PRICES SOFTEN
8/11/2018Containerboard Ind 081118CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY COMPARATIVE PROFIT MARGINS
8/10/2018ABX 081018BARRICK GOLD “FOUR MILE” DISCOVERY NEXT TO GOLDRUSH; NO
CORPORATE CHANGES DUE TO GOLD PRICE DECLINES
8/7/2018PKG 080718PACKAGING CORPORATION EARNINGS ESTIMATES RAISED BASED ON
HIGHER PACKAGING SEGMENT PRICE REALIZATIONS
8/6/2018Steel Ind 080618STEEL INDUSTRY - - BIG RIVER STEEL TAKEOVER DISCUSSIONS
8/6/2018Copper Ind 080418COPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND DATA REVISED BY WORLD BUREAU OF
METALS STATISTICS DOWN FURTHER FOR 2018 MAY YTD
8/4/2018IP 080318INTERNATIONAL PAPER UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL AS RISKS PASS AND
VALUATION IMPROVES; UPDATED FOR Q2 2018 RESULTS
8/3/2018WRK 080218WESTROCK UPDATED FOR STRONG JUNE 2018 QUARTER PERFORMANCE;
SHARES MORE ATTRACATIVE AFTER SHARE PRICE DECLINES
7/31/2018Metals Expansions Vol 38 073118METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 38 197 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 31
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 49 EXPANSIONS AND 6
SHUTS JULY YTD
7/27/2018Detour Gold 072718DETOUR GOLD - - PAULSON JULY 18TH LETTER; STRESS TESTS TO $1,200, $1,100 OR $1,000 AU
7/26/2018PVG 072618PRETIVM RESOURCES TO REFINANCE; ESTIMATGED 2018 BRUCEJACK
PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 48,000 OZS.
7/25/2018Grupo Mexico 072518GRUPO MEXICO: LOWER RECENT METALS PRICES PARTLY OFFSET BY
HIGHER TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE RESULTS
7/25/2018FCX 072518FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. MARKET OUTLOOK; GRASBERG PIT MINING TO
EARLY 2019; INDONESIAN DEAL IN “FINE PRINT” STAGES; ESTIMATES CUT
7/23/2018Metals ratings target earnings changes 072318INVESTMENT RATING, PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATE CUTS DUE
TO METALS PRICE ESTMATE CUTS WITH STRONGER US $ OR LESS DEMAND
7/23/2018Metals Price Changes 072318METALS PRICE REVISIONS DUE TO STRONGER DOLLAR OR LESS DEMAND
7/19/2018Copper Ind 071918COPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND FALLS WELL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS;
CUTTING COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES AGAIN
7/19/2018KL 071918KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ENJOYS MANY EXPLORATION SUCCESSES;
MODELS REVISED FOR $73.2 MM BUYOUT OF THE 2% NSR ON FOSTERVILLE
7/16/2018Metals 071618METALS PRICES FALL BELOW 2017 FULL YEAR AVERAGES
7/12/2018Glencore 071218GLENCORE PLC ADDRESSES U.S. SUBPOENA, ANNOUNCES BUYBACKS,
MAKES KATANGA SETTLEMENTS AND PRODUCTION REPORT
7/11/2018Detour Gold 071118DETOUR GOLD - - JUNE 27TH NEW MINE PLAN $385/OZ LIFE-OF-MINE DEPRECIATION
COMPARED TO THE MANY PUBLICLY TRADED GOLD MINERS
7/10/2018WOR 071018WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT 3% TO 9% WITH
LEANER $35/TON STEEL PROCESSING EBIT MARGIN AND NEAR NIL CABS,
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AND ENERGY PRODN. CYLINDERS
7/9/2018Spot Markets 070618SPOT MARKETS - - COMMODITY PRICE ESTIMATE REVISIONS UP AND DOWN; JULY 6TH SPOT
PRICES PLUNGE ON CHINESE WORRIES OF TRADE WAR SETTING BACK CHINA
7/6/2018Detour Gold 070618DETOUR GOLD - - JUNE 27TH NEW MINE PLAN REAFFIRMS OUTPUT, MINE LIFE AND NPV, BUT
ERODES SOME COST CUSHIONS AND SUGGEST $385/OZ LIFE-OF-MINE CAP EX
7/3/2018PKG 070318PACKAGING CORPORATION’S HIGHER PACKAGING SEGMENT OPERATING
PROFIT ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER PAPER SEGMENT PROFITS
7/3/2018Metals Expansions Vol 37 063018METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 37 184 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 23
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 39 EXPANSIONS AND 6
SHUTS JUNE YTD
7/2/2018Conf Base Metals Track 062718CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS “BASE METALS TRACK” JUNE 27TH
6/29/2018Conference Core Shack photos 062818“CORE SHACK” PHOTOS FROM OUR JUNE 27TH -28TH CONFERENCE
6/28/2018Conf. Mid-Cap Golds TrackHIGHLIGHTS OF JUNE 28TH CONFERENCE “MID-CAP GOLD TRACK”
6/27/2018Conf. Large Cap Track 062718CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS “LARGE CAP TRACK” JUNE 27TH
6/26/2018Conference Moderator's Remarks 062718INVESTORS HAVE MORE CHOICES, AND COMPANIES NEED TO OFFER
BETTER RETURNS TO ATTRACT CAPITAL
6/25/2018Alcoa 062218ALCOA: HIGHER ALUMINA PRICES AND STRONG COST CONTROLS TO
INCREASE EARNINGS; LARGER DEBT PAYDOWNS AND DIVIDENDS LIKELY
6/21/2018Southern CopperSOUTHERN COPPER: LOWER NEAR TERM COPPER & SILVER PRICES OFFSET
BY MICHIQUILLAY PRODUCTION STARTING IN 2023 SOONER THAN 2025
6/21/2018Containerboard Ind 062118CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY FORECASTED OPERATING RATES TO FALL
FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS NEW CAPACITY COMES ONLINE
6/19/2018Rio Tinto 061818RIO TINTO - - “VALUE OVER VOLUME” TARGETS 360 MMT IRON ORE
6/16/2018ANTO 061518ANTOFAGASTA PLC: HIGHER LONG TERM MOLYBDENUM AND COPPER
PRICES INCREASE EARNINGS FROM AUG. 2017 REPORT; MODELS UPDATED
FOR 2018 GUIDANCE
6/14/2018IP 061418INTERNATIONAL PAPER UPDATED FOR $25/TON HIGHER RATHER THAN
$30/TON LOWER 2018 CORRUGATED PACKAGING PRICES
6/12/2018WPM Cobalt Deal 061218WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS INVESTS $390 MM IN A COBALT STREAM
6/12/2018Gen Moly 061218GENERAL MOLY INC. MOUNT HOPE AND LIBERTY PROJECTS PUSHED
BACK UNTIL 2022 AND 2024, RESPECTIVELY
6/11/2018ARNC 061118ARCONIC POSSIBLE EXPOSURES IN GRENFELL TOWER INQUIRY
6/9/2018Steel Ind Tariffs 060818STEEL INDUSTRY - - MANY CUSTOMER TARIFF EXCLUSION REQUESTS ARE TINY OR
IMMATERIAL TONNAGES; WE NOTE FIVE LARGE REQUESTS
6/8/2018WRK 060818WESTROCK HIGH PRICES MOSTLY OFFSET BY HIGHER COSTS; KAPSTONE
ACQUISITION MODELED; CONTAINERBOARD PRICES UP WHILE OCC DOWN
6/5/2018Alumina Ltd 060518ALUMINA LTD: HIGHER ALUMINA PRICE REALIZATIONS FOR AWAC DRIVE
HIGHER EQUITY EARNINGS FOR ALUMINA LIMITED
6/5/2018Alumina Ltd 060518ALUMINA LTD: HIGHER ALUMINA PRICE REALIZATIONS FOR AWAC DRIVE
HIGHER EQUITY EARNINGS FOR ALUMINA LIMITED
6/5/2018Teck 060518TECK RESOURCES BUYOUT OF 13.5% OF QUEBRADA BLANCA; CAPITAL
EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES INCREASED
6/4/2018Rio Tinto 060418RIO TINTO - - - LARGE NEST EGG BUILDING WITH OVER $5 BILLION IN
COAL AND ALUMINUM SALES AND POTENTIAL GRASBERG SALE BENEFITS
6/1/2018Grupo Mexico 060118GRUPO MEXICO: GRUPO MEXICO AND GMXT SELL DOWN BADLY WITH
MAY BANDITO TRAIN ROBBERIES BETWEEN PUEBLA AND VERACRUZ
5/31/2018Metals 232 Tariffs 053118METALS INDUSTRIES - - TARIFFS AND QUOTAS HAVE GOOD AND BAD
INTENDED AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
5/31/2018Gold Ind 053118GOLD INDUSTRY - - “PURGE” OUR OVERWEIGHT OR “BUY”
RECOMMENDATIONS TO SIX FROM NINE PRECIOUS METALS STOCKS
5/31/2018Metals Expansions Vol 36 053118METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 36 114 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 19
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 33 EXPANSIONS AND 6
SHUTS MAY YTD
5/29/2018BHP 052918BHP BILLITON HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF PETROLEUM REVENUES
5/29/2018Spot Markets 052918SPOT MARKETS - - GOLD, COPPER, ZINC, MIDWEST ALUMINUM PREMIUMS AND IRON ORE
DROP BELOW OUR 2018 PRICE ESTIMATES
5/25/2018NAK & FQ split 052518NORTHERN DYNASTY PROBABLY WILL TALK TO “FIRST RUNNER UP”
PRIOR TO FIRST QUANTUM DECEMBER 18TH FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
5/25/2018Vale 052418VALE ENJOYS HIGHER THAN ITS FORECASTED PRICES, WHERE MARCH
VOLUMES FELL SHORT AND HIGHER OIL SIGNALS COST HEADWINDS
5/24/2018Wheaton PM cobalt test 052418WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS MODELED TO TEST POSSIBLE COBALT
STREAM ON VALE’S VOISEY’S BAY MINE ADAPTABLE TO GORO MINE TOO
5/23/2018Century Alum 052318CENTURY ALUMINUM BENEFITS FROM MIDWEST PREMIUMS AND LME
SPOT PRICE, BUT HIGH ALUMINA COSTS OFFSET REVENUE GAINS
5/21/2018Tahoe 052118TAHOE RESOURCES: GUATEMALAN SITUATION “THE SAME” WITHOUT A
RESOLUTION; PERU AND ONTARIO MINES OPERATE MOSTLY OKAY
5/21/2018Forest Products 052018FOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD PRICES MAY CONTINUE STRONG PAST
NORMAL SEASONAL PEAK
5/18/2018South32 051818SOUTH32 SHARE BUYBACKS, HIGHER MANGANESE PRICES INCREASE
EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW AND LOWERS NET DEBT
5/18/2018Detour Gold 051818DETOUR GOLD - - CEO CHANGE MAY SIGNAL INTENT TO SELL OUT TO A MAJOR
5/18/2018AEM 051718AGNICO EAGLE MINES OPERATING COST ESTIMATES INCREASED BASED
ON 2018 GUIDANCE
5/11/2018SPOT MARKETS 051118SPOT MARKETS - - GLOBAL COPPER MINE OUTPUT UP 5.3% AS CHILE, INDONESIA AND
ZAMBIA SURGE AND NICKEL MINES UP 16.9% AS INDONESIA AND PHILIPPINES SURGE
5/9/2018Detour Gold 050918DETOUR GOLD - - VAST RESERVES UNDERVALUED
5/9/2018Lundin Mining 050918LUNDIN MINING: DISCOUNT RATE RAISED FROM 8% to 9% WITH
ACQUISITION UNKNOWNS; PRODUCTION ESTIMATES RAISED SLIGHTLY
5/3/2018ARNC 050318ARCONIC STRATEGIC REVIEW TO UNFOLD IN LATE-2018; NO 2019
GUIDANCES
4/30/2018Metals Expansions Vol 35 042818

METALS EXPANSIONS- - VOLUME 35 82 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 15
CONTRACTIONS AND FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 31 EXPANSIONS AND 5
SHUTS APRIL YTD
4/30/2018HBM 041018HUDBAY MINERALS: HIGHER CONSTANCIA PRODUCTION THROUGH 2023;
REMOVAL OF 777 PRODUCTION AFTER 2019; ROSEMENT COMMERCIAL
PRODUCTION STILL ESTIMATED BY MID-2022
4/30/2018FCX 043018FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. FACES SOME EXECUTION RISKS AS IT PLANS
FOR NEW COPPER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
4/27/2018WY 4/27/2018WEYERHAEUSER ENJOYS “WATERSHED” RECORD FIRST QUARTER WOOD
PRODUCTS EBIT EARNINGS > 2004 BACK AT 2.2 MM HOUSING STARTS
4/26/2018Domtar 042618DOMTAR MODELED WITH A MILL CONVERSION TO LINERBOARD IN 2023
4/25/2018ATI 042518ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES EARNS BETTER MARGINS IN FIRST-QUARTER
4/23/2018KL Financial Models 042018KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD MODELED WITH A LOWER DISCOUNT RATE AND A
HIGHER VALUATION PREMIUM
4/23/2018KL Fosterville Tech Report 042018KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ANNOUNCES MACASSA SHAFT; VIEW OF FOSTERVILLE APRIL 2ND
TECHICAL REPORT
4/19/2018Glencore 041819GLENCORE PLC POLITICAL RISKS IN RUSSIA AND DRC CONGO
4/18/2018Alum Ind 041818ALUMINUM - - U.S. SANCTIONS STRANGLE UC RUSAL’S RAW MATERIALS
TO LIKELY CUT OUTPUT BY 2+ MMT FROM 3.7 TO UNDER 1.7 MMT
4/17/2018Norbord 041718NORBORD MODEL UPDATED FOR HIGHER 2018 CAPEX AND A HIGHER 2018
OSB PRICE REALIZATION
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4/16/2018Metals Inventories 041618METALS - - ALUMINUM INVENTORIES CONTINUE TO RISE, WHILE COPPER
FALLS IN PAST TWO WEEKS
4/11/2018Norilsk Nickel 041118NORILSK NICKEL: RUSSIAN POLITICAL RISKS; DEBT RISES; COSTS RISE
4/10/2018Fortescue MetalsFORTESCUE METALS LOWER LONG TERM REALIZED IRON ORE PRICES
4/9/2018Iron Ore 040918IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - PRICES FALL IN MARCH-APRIL WITH FALL IN
GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS OVER TRADE WAR OR RECESSION WORRIES
4/6/2018Containerboard discount rates 040618CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - RAISING DISCOUNT RATES TO REFLECT
CYCLICAL RISKS
4/5/2018IP 040518INTERNATIONAL PAPER PRICE FLUCTUATIONS IMPACT ODDS OF A
SMURFIT KAPPA ACQUISITION
4/2/2018LPX 4-2-18LOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODELED TO REFLECT HIGHER CAPEX ESTIMATES
AND A HIGHER 2018 OSB PRICE REALIZATION
3/30/2018Metals Expansions Vol 34METALS - - VOLUME 34 69 NEW METALS PLANTS AND 12 CONTRACTIONS
IN 1Q; FOREST PRODUCTS HAS 27 EXPANSIONS AND 4 SHUTS
3/30/2018Spot Markets 032918SPOT MARKETS - - BASE METALS PRICES FALL WITH HIGHER INVENTORY AND RECESSION
WORRIES; GOLD, PAPER AND WOOD PRICES FIRMEST; BOOM IN CU & NI OUTPUTS & DEMAND
3/28/2018Wheaton Precious Metals 032718WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS MODELED WITH HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE
3/26/2018Gold Mine Valuations 032618GOLD INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF BENCHMARK VALUATIONS
3/26/2018Gold 032618GOLD - - ANOMALY OF FIRMER GOLD PRICES AND SHARE WEAKNESS;
ASSETS OUTFLOWS FROM GOLD FUNDS
3/23/2018Northern Dynasty 032318NORTHERN DYNASTY ENJOYS “EARLY 2020 RECORD OF DECISION’ TARGET
DATE FROM U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
3/22/2018First Quantum 032218FIRST QUANTUM MANAGES CHALLENGES IN ZAMBIA AND PANAMA
3/19/2018Metals Inventories 031618METALS - - EXCHANGE INVENTORIES UP NEAR ¼ IN 3 MONTHS TO 4.2 MMT
3/15/2018OR 031518OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES INVESTS IN VICTORIA GOLD’S EAGLE GOLD
PROJECT; PRETIUM BRUCEJACK DISCLOSURES EVOLVE
3/12/2018IP 031218INTERNATIONAL PAPER BID FOR SMURFIT KAPPA COULD CREATE HIGH
LEVERAGE AND LARGE POTENTIAL COST SAVINGS
3/12/2018WY 031218WEYERHAEUSER VALUATION INCREASED ON HIGHER 2018 ESTIMATED
WOOD PRODUCTS EARNINGS.
3/12/2018Grupo Mexico 031218GRUPO MEXICO: UPDATED SUM OF THE PARTS VALUATION AFTER
TRANSPORTATION IPO; HIGHER FUTURE COPPER PRICES RAISE EPS
3/9/2018Steel Ind 030818STEEL INDUSTRY - - EXPECTATION OF TRADE PROTECTION OR TRUMP
SOLUTIONS MAY BE A WORSE CATASTROPHE THAN 1932, 1982 OR 2009
3/8/2018GOLD IND 030819GOLD INDUSTRY - - JEWELRY MARKET FAILS TO GROW, MAKING PRICES
HINGE ON BUILLON ETFS, CENTRAL BANKS AND PRIVATE BARS/COINS
3/8/2018Gold mine highlights Toronto conf. 030818METALS - - ANNUAL “PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS ASSOCIATION
CONVENTION” IN TORONTO DESCRIBES GLOBAL SUCCESSES
3/5/2018ABX 030518 BARRICK GOLD FORECASTS 4.4 MM OZ AVERAGE OUPTUT IN 2019-22 AS
RESERVES FALL TO 64.5 FROM 86.0 MM OZ
3/3/2018Spot Markets 030218SPOT MARKETS - - WOOD AND STEEL MAKE NEW PRICE PEAKS, BUT RECESSION WORRIES
LOOM WITH INTEREST RATES, HIGHER INVENTORY OR TARIFFS
3/2/2018Metals Expansions Vol 33 030118METALS - - VOLUME 33 HAS 20 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS, 1
CLOSING AND 1 NEW TAX ACTION IN FEBRUARY
3/1/2018Southern Copper 030118SOUTHERN COPPER BENEFITS FROM HIGHER FUTURE OUPTUT TO 1.7 MMT
MICHIQUILLAY IN 2025; DCF/NPV ACCRETION HELPS PRICE TARGET
2/26/2018 Tahoe Resources 022618TAHOE RESOURCES: COURT DELAYS DECISION; GOLD MINES REPORT
INCREASED OUTPUT, RESERVES AND RESOURCES
2/20/2018First Quantum 022018FIRST QUANTUM HIGHER COPPER PRICES AND COPPER OUTPUT DRIVE
INCREASED EARNINGS; CAP EX COMPLETION TO REBUILD FINANCES
2/20/2018 Metals Inventories 022018METALS - - TOTAL EXCHANGE INVENTORIES RISE SHARPLY TO 3.82 MMT
ON FEBRUARY 16TH FROM 3.42 MMT ON DECEMBER 10TH DUE TO AL & CU
2/20/2018FNVFRANCO NEVADA ENJOYS EXTRA 10% STAKE, FASTER 2019 STARTUP AND
EXPANDED HIGHER COBRE PANAMA GOLD AND SILVER OUTPUT
2/20/2018Alum Ind 022018ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - TARIFF OR QUOTA CHANGES TO HAVE SMALL IMPACTS ON WORLD
OR U.S. TONNAGES, BUT WILL RAISE PROFITS VIA HIGHER MIDWEST PREMIUM PRICES
2/15/2018ABX 021518BARRICK GOLD FORECASTS 4.4 MM OZ AVERAGE OUPTUT IN 2019-22 AS
RESERVES FALL TO 64.5 FROM 86.0 MM OZ
2/13/2018AWC 021318ALUMINA LTD: HIGHER ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA PRICES RAISE PRICE
TARGET AND EARNINGS, PARTLY OFFSET BY COSTS; DISCOUNT RATE CUT
2/12/2018OR 020118OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES REVISED TO LATER PVG BUYBACKS, LESS PVG
OUTPUT AND HIGHER 2020 ONWARDS OUTPUT AT CANADIAN MALARTIC.
2/9/2018 SPOTMARKETS 013118SPOT MARKETS - - GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS DRIVE FIRMER PRICES AND CASH FLOW
2/8/2018WPM 020818WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS MODELED WITHOUT BARRICK’S PASCUA
2/7/2018 SAND 010818SANDSTORM GOLD MODELS INCORPORATE 2% NSR ON ENDEAVOUR’S
HOUNDE MINE IN BURKINA FASO
2/5/2018CONTAINERBOARD 020518CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FIRST GREENFIELD U.S. MILL SINCE 1970
MAY NOT BE THE ONLY ONE; OVERSUPPLY PLAUSIBLE
2/5/2018ALUM IND 020518ALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - REVISIONS TO ALUMINUM DATA AND OUTLOOK
2/2/2018Northern Dynasty 020218NORTHERN DYNASTY HAS ROUGHLY TWENTY TIMES AS MUCH PUBLIC
COMMENT AS POLYMET’S PROJECT IN MINNESOTA
2/2/2018AA 020218ALCOA: HIGHER ALUMINUM PRICES AND ALUMINA PRODUCTION
INCREASE EARNINGS; LARGE DEBT PAYDOWNS AND DIVIDEND IN 2018
2/2/2018METALS DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION 020218METALS - - SEASONAL DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION IN CHINA
1/31/2018Metals Expansion Vol 32 013118METALS - - VOLUME 32 HAS 20 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 6
CLOSINGS IN JANUARY
1/31/2018Copper Ind supply-demand 013118COPPER INDUSTRY - - SUPPLY-DEMAND MODELS TIGHTER; DEMAND ESTIMATES RAISED AND
FUTURE MINE OUTPUT PROJECTS TRIMMED TO OFFSET MINE REBOUND IN LATE-2017
1/31/2018PVG 013118PRETIVM RESOURCES ORE GRADES FALL OVER 20% SHORT OF
GEOLOGICAL MODEL; HIGHER MILL THROUGHPUT RATES
1/29/2018 WRK 013118WESTROCK TO ACQUIRE KAPSTONE PAPER TO JUMP TO $2.9 BILLION IN
EBITDA FROM $2.3 BILLION IN 2017 TOWARDS $4+ BILLION EBITDA FY 2022
1/28/2018 Northern Dynasty 010618NORTHERN DYNASTY POTENTIAL NEW PEBBLE ECONOMIC STUDY IN
LATE-2018 OR 2019 LIKELY VERY DIFFERENT THAN FEBRUARY 2011
1/26/2018GG 010618GOLDCORP MODEL UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER CAPEX FROM NUEVA
UNION; EXPLORATION AND DEPRECIATION EXPENSES INCREASED
1/26/2018 RIO 012618RIO TINTO HIGHER LONG-TERM COPPER AND MET COAL PRICE ESTIMATES
LIFT EARNINGS AND PRICE TARGET
1/24/2018 NEM 012418NEWMONT MINING VISIT TO 19.9%-OWNED BURETICA MINE OF
CONTINENTAL GOLD IN MEDELLIN, COLOMBIA JANUARY 23RD

1/19/2018WPM 011918WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS. SAN DIMAS STREAM RESTRUCTURED; NET
DEBT REDUCED.
1/19/2018TECK 011918TECK RESOURCES LOWER FUTURE CAPEX, HIGHER PRICES AND ADDING
SAN NICOLAS AND ZAFRANAL PROJECTS IN MODEL RAISE PRICE TARGET
1/18/2018 KL 011718KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ANNOUNCES MACASSA SHAFT, COSMO MINE RESTART PLAN, MUCH EXPLORATION AND 1 MM OZ OUTPUT TARGET
1/12/2018ABX 011218BARRICK GOLD TAX RATE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR U.S. TAX ACT; DONLIN
AND PASCUA LAMA PROJECTS EACH PUSHED BACK TWO YEARS
1/11/2018FCX 011118FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: EFFECTIVE TAXES BROKEN DOWN INTO US,
GRASBERG, CERRO VERDE, AND EL ABRA SEGMENTS RESULTING IN
HIGHER NEAR TERM TAX AMD LOWER EARNINGS ESTIMATES
1/10/2018 NEM 011018NEWMONT MINING CORPORATE TAX RATE AND DISCOUNT RATE BOTH
REDUCED SLIGHTLY
1/10/2018 IRON ORE 011018IRON ORE PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE IN JANUARY AND DECEMBER
DESPITE WINTER CHINESE STEEL OUTPUT CUTS
1/9/2018 ATI 010918ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INCOME TAX AND JV REVISIONS
1/5/2018RGDL 010518ROYAL GOLD NET DEBT AND CORPORATE TAX RATE LOWERED
1/5/2018 RGLD 010518ROYAL GOLD NET DEBT AND CORPORATE TAX RATE LOWERED
1/4/2018 ARNC 010418ARCONIC BENEFITS FROM US CORPORATE TAX REFORM; LOWER FUTURE
ESTIMATES TAXES INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET
1/2/2018 Vale 010218VALE SELLS ASSETS DESPITE LOW PRICES SENDING “CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE,” “COST DISCIPLINE” AND SIMPLIFICATION MESSAGES
1/1/2018Forest Products tax-rate and EPS revisions 123118HARMONIZING FOREST PRODUCTS STOCKS FOR 21% CORPORATE TAX
RATE, OUR ESTIMATE OF 28% FROM 2022 AND OTHER CHANGES
1/1/2018
GLENCORE 123118GLENCORE PLC HIGHER FORECASTED VOLUMES FOR 2018-2020 AND
COBALT PRICES GENERATE ADDITONAL EARNINGS
12/28/2017 Metals Expansions Vol 31 122817METALS - - VOLUME 31 HAS 32 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 9
CLOSINGS IN DECEMBER
12/24/2017WRK 122217WESTROCK INVESTOR DAY TARGETS $4+ BILLION EBITDA IN FY 2022 UP
FROM $2.3 BILLION IN FY 2017
12/24/2017 SPOT MARKETS 122417SPOT MARKETS - - GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS DRIVE FIRMER PRICES
12/22/2017 Cameco 122217CAMECO: CHINESE ENERGY CRISIS SEVERE IN DECEMBER AS NATURAL
GAS SUPPLIES FALL WELL SHORT
12/22/2017 U.S. STEEL U.S. STEEL HIGHER PRICE REALIZATIONS HELP MARGINS AND INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
12/21/2017 Forest Products balance sheets 122117FOREST PRODUCTS BALANCE SHEET COMPARISONS
12/19/2017 WOR 121917WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER CORPORATE
INCOME TAX RATE, BUYBACKS AND STRONGER CYLINDER EARNINGS
12/19/2017 First Quantum 121917FIRST QUANTUM TARGET OF GREATER SCRUTINY AND REQUIRES MAYBE
$25 MM LARGER ANNUAL ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLAYS
12/18/2017First Quantum and NAKFIRST QUANTUM ORGANIZING JV ON WORLD’S LARGEST UNDEVELOPED
GOLD AND COPPER DEPOSIT IN ALASKA
12/15/2017Nucor 121517NUCOR A MAJOR BENEFICIARY OF 21% CORPORATE TAX RATE; ADDS BAR
CAPACITY, TUBULAR VALUE-ADDED AND VALUE-ADDED AUTO SHEETS
12/13/2017 NEM 121317NEWMONT MINING AHAFO NORTH AND YANACOCHA SULFIDES MODELED;
OUTPUT AND COSTS ADJUSTED TO GUIDANCES
12/12/2017Tahoe Resources 121217TAHOE RESOURCES: COURT DELAYS WITH SITE VISITS BY JUSTICES TO
FOLLOW IN JANUARY; CASILLAS ROAD BLOCKADE CONTINUES
12/11/2017Vale 121117VALE REAFFIRMS 2018 IRON ORE OUTPUT AT 390 MMT AND CUTS 2018
NICKEL OUTPUT TARGET 15% CUTTING $1.6 BILLION NI CAP EX
12/07/2017FCX 120617FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: RIO TINTO MAY SELL ITS 40% EARN-IN TO
THRUST INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT ALMOST TO ITS 51% TARGET
12/5/2017Lunding Mining 120517LUNDIN MINING: LARGE CAPITAL PROGRAMS TO REBUILD AND EXPAND
LARGEST CANDALARIA AND ZINKGRUVAN MINES
12/05/2017GG 120517GOLDCORP RETURNS BY MINE STUDIED.
12/4/2017 Iron Ore 120417IRON ORE PRICES RISE IN DECEMBER DESPITE EXPECTATION OF WINTER
CHINESE STEEL OUTPUT CUTS
12/4/2017 Gold Ind 120417GOLD SHARES A “CONTRARIAN,” LAGGARD OR TAX-SELLING TRADE
12/1/2017 BHP 120117BHP BILLITON PRESENTS MESSAGES OF CAPITAL RESTAINT AND
INCREMENTAL MARGIN ENHANCEMENTS
11/31/2017sportmarkets 113117SPOT MARKETS - - INVENTORIES FALL ON LME AND RISE IN SHANGHAI EXCHANGE; CHINA CUTS ALUMINUM 15.6%, ALUMINA 19.5% AND STEEL ONLY 4.4% FROM JUNE RECORDS
11/30/2017NEM 112717NEWMONT MINING NET DEBT PAYDOWNS CONTINUE; 2018 GOLD PRICE REQUUIRED FOR A 5% RETURN ON ASSETS DETERMINED
11/30/2017kirklnd lake 113017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
11/30/2017impairments 113017METALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - FIVE COMPANIES REVERSE BITS OF PAST CHARGES AS IMPAIRMENTS DIMINISH NICELY
11/30/2017Metals Expansions Vol 30 113017METALS - - VOLUME 30 HAS 37 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 7 CLOSINGS IN NOVEMBER
11/30/2017ccj 112717CAMECO: UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT AS NUCLEAR REACTORS LOGICAL REPLACEMENT AS CHINA AND INDIA FORCE COAL-FIRED POWER IDLINGS
11/27/2017ABX 111517BARRICK GOLD MODEL ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE SALE OF 50% OF VELADERO AND LOWER ACACIA OUTPUT
11/19/2017 AEM 111917AGNICO EAGLE MINES “ESTIMATED ROAD MAPS TO $2/SHARE EPS;” COMPARISON OF COMPANY ECONOMICS IN 2017 VERSUS 2007
11/17/2017Anglo American 11117ANGLO AMERICAN: SUM OF PARTS VALUATION ANALYSIS; RENEWED DIVIDEND PAYOUTS; SLIGHT CHANGES IN PRICE ESTIMATES
11/16/2017Fortescue 111617FORTESCUE METALS: ECONOMICS OF A 35 MMT CONCENTRATOR 67%
VERSUS 13% PRETAX, PRE-INTEREST RETURN OF 30 MMT PELLET PLANT
11/15/2017 SANDSTORM 1116178SANDSTORM GOLD MODELS INCORPORATE BUYBACKS, AMENDED
BACHELOR LAKE AGREEMENT AND SALE OF $18.2 MM IN TREK MINING
11/13/2017 Spot Markets 11132017SPOT MARKETS - - COPPER AND NICKEL PHYSICAL DEMAND SOFT DESPITE COINCIDENT WORLD GROWTH
11/10/2017 PKG 111017PACKAGING CORKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD FOSTERVILLE MINE TECHNICAL STUDY ITEMS; THREE EQUITY INVESTMENTS; IDLE MINE SALES; WIDER & DEEPER AT MACASSA DISCLOSED ON JUNE 28TH IMPRESSES US TOO PORATION OF AMERICA MODELED WITHOUT ANY BENEFIT FROM TRUMP TAX CUT
11/8/2017 KL 110817KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD FOSTERVILLE MINE TECHNICAL STUDY ITEMS; THREE EQUITY INVESTMENTS; IDLE MINE SALES; WIDER & DEEPER AT MACASSA DISCLOSED ON JUNE 28TH IMPRESSES US TOO
11/8/2017 Teck 110817TECK HIGHER PRICE TARGET DUE TO INCREASED LONG TERM COPPER OUTPUT, SHARE BUY-BACKS, AND HIGHER NEAR TERM METALS PRICES
11/8/2017 LPX 110617LOUISIANA-PACIFIC ESTIMATES RAISED DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER PERFORMANCE ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS FOR 2019 ONWARDS
11/8/2017 ATI 110817ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES ADJUSTING OUR MODELS TO 149.35 MM SHARES AFTER 19.55 MM OFFERING AND 4 ¾% DEBENTURE CONVERSION
11/6/2017 IRON ORE 110617IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - BACKWARDATION LOWEST IN THREE YEARS, AND MAY SWITCH TO CONTANGO RISING PRICE WITH PRODUCTION MISSES
11/3/2017 IP110317INTERNATIONAL PAPER SELLS NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER PACKAGING BUSINESS FOR $1.8 B TO GRAPHIC PACKAGING RETAINING 20.5% STAKE; CONTAINERBOARD MARGINS FALL SHORT
11/3/2017 Copper Ind Supply-Demand 110217COPPER INDUSTRY - - SUPPLY-DEMAND MODELS TIGHT; BOTH DEMAND AND MINE OUTPUT LESS THAN EXPECTED; MODEL EXCESS SUPPLY 2021-23
11/3/2017Copper Demand 110217COPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND GROWTH WEAK WITH 4%-6% EXPECTED IN
7 OF 31 NATIONS OR REGIONS INTO WHICH WE BREAK DOWN THE WORLD
11/3/2017Copper Industry Sensitivity $4.50COPPER INDUSTRY - - SENSITIVITY OF VARIOUS STOCKS TO $4.50/LB LONGTERM
COPPER PRICES
11/2/2017ATI Tsingshan 110217ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES JOINT VENTURE WITH TSINGSHAN DEPENDS
ON THE TOLL PRICING FOR ATI ROLLING AND TSINGSHAN SLABS
10/31/2017Southern Copper103117SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. ENJOYS COPPER PRICES NEARER TO OUR
$3.25/LB 2018 ESTIMATE VALIDATING EXPANSIONS TO 1.55 MMT BY 2025
10/31/2017bhp 103117BHP BILLITON PROGRESS TO SETTLE SAMARCO FINANCIAL CLAIMS
10/31/2017bhp 103117BHP BILLITON PROGRESS TO SETTLE SAMARCO FINANCIAL CLAIMS
10/31/2017Vale 103117VALE PROGRESS IN 50%-OWNED SAMARCO FINANCIAL CLAIMS
10/30/2017 METALS EXPANSION VOL 29 103017METALS - - VOLUME 29 HAS 17 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 17 CLOSINGS IN OCTOBER.
10/30/2017 ATI TOLL ROLLINGALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THIRD-PARTY CARBON OR SPECIALTY METALS CUSTOM ROLLING AT BRACKENRIDGE
10/25/2017 WRK 102517WESTROCK TO BENEFIT AS GRAPHIC PACKAGING CONSOLIDATES AND BUYS OUT INTERNATIONAL PAPER’S CONSUMER PACKAGING DIVISION
10/24/2017ATI 102417ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES DIVIDEND OUTLOOK MUTED UNTIL 2020;
SOME CONSIDERATIONS WEIGH IN FAVOR OF ASSET SALES
10/24/2017ARNC 102417ARCONIC NAMES LEADERSHIP TEAM AND SETS TARGETS; ONLY THE
TRANSPORTATION & CONSTRUCTION SEGMENT MEETS TARGETS
10/19/2017WRK 101919WESTROCK VULNERABLE TO SCRAP PAPER PRICE FLUCTUATIONS;
CORRUGATED COSTS RAISED BASED ON 2017 RESULTS.
10/18/2017TAHOE 101817TAHOE RESOURCES: CASILLAS ROAD BLOCKADE CONTINUES; CHOPPER
SHOT; MINES AGENCY DELAYS EXPORT PERMIT; OPPONENTS APPEAL
10/18/2017STEEL IND 101817STEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINESE EXPORTS PLUNGE IN SEPTEMBER 55% FROM
PEAKS IN 2015
10/17/2017FORTESCUE 101717FORTESCUE METALS: SENSITIVITY TO 58% IRON ORE PRICE DISCOUNTS
10/16/2017ALUM IND 101617ALUMINUM OUTPUT IN CHINA FALLS 12.5% IN AUGUST FROM JUNE 2017 ALL-TIME RECORD;
WORLD ALUMINA OUTPUTS UP 15.1% PROVIDES BUFFER AS CHINESE OUTPUT CUTS UNFOLD
10/13/2017SPOT MARKET 101317SPOT MARKETS - - PRICE DIVERGENCES “WEIRD” WITHIN GENERALLY STRONG MARKETS;
SCRAP STEEL PLUNGES OVER 10% AND CONTAINERBOARD OVER 30% FOR OCTOBER
10/12/2017 CONTAINERBOARD IND. 101217CONTAINERBOARD CAPACITY ADDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NUMEROUS COMPANIES ACROSS THE INDUSTRY
10/10/2017COPPER IND MERGER VALUES 101017COPPER INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF FIVE COPPER DEPOSITS FOR SALE;
DATA BASE OF 96 TRANSACTIONS SINCE 2005 UPDATED
10/6/2017GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC MODELS UPDATED FOR ACQUISITION OF VOLCAN ZINC
AND CHEVRON DOWNSTREAM OIL ASSETS
10/6/2017RIO TINTORIO TINTO LIFTS 2017 SHARE BUYBACK AUTHORIZATION TO $4.0 BILLION
10/4/2017WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER HIGHER NEAR-TERM WOOD PRODUCTS PRICES
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY HIGHER TIMBERLANDS OPERATING COSTS
10/3/2017METALS RETURNS METALS - - COMPARISONS OF RETURNS ON ASSETS OF MAJOR MINES
10/2/2017METALS - - VOLUME 28METALS - - VOLUME 28 HAS 25 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 17
CLOSINGS IN SEPTEMBER WITH UNEXPECTED ALUMINUM SETBACKS
10/2/2017NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING RESERVE LIFE POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS TO CARLIN
UNDERGROUND AND CRIPPLE CREEK AFTER SEPT. 21-22 NEVADA TOURS
9/29/2017LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC ESTIMATES RAISED DUE TO HIGH OSB PRICES
9/29/2017NORBORDNORBORD EARNINGS ESTIMATES RAISED DUE TO HIGH OSB PRICES
9/29/2017VALE CARAJAS S11D TOURVALE VOLUME ESTIMATES CUT FOR FOR MOST PRODUCTS; COMMENTS
FROM SEPTEMBER 21-22, 2017 CARAJAS S11D ‘TRUCKLESS MINE” SITE VISIT
9/29/2017GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC 2017 MARKETING EBITDA ESTIMATES RAISED;
ACQUISITION OF 49% OF HUNTER VALLEY COAL OPERATIONS
9/27/2017GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - DENVER GOLD FORUM HIGHLIGHTS SEPT 25-27, 2017
9/25/2017NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING VISITS SEPT. 21-22 TO CARLIN AND LONG CANYON
GOLD MINES
9/25/2017GOLDCORPGOLDCORP MODEL UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER OPERATING COSTS IN
THE FIRST HALF OF 2017
9/18/2017GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - GOLD PRICES REBOUND SUSTAINABLE WITH NEARLY
A 10% WEAKER DOLLAR
9/14/2017AEM APPENDIX MINE TOURSAGNICO EAGLE MINES APPENDIX TO SEPT 14, 2017 REPORT FOR GOLDEX,
CANADIAN MALARTIC AND MELIADINE VISIT NOTES AND
9/14/2017AGNICO EAGLEAGNICO EAGLE MINES ESTIMATES RAISED FROM INCLUSION OF EL
BARQUENO, ODYSSEY, AND HIGHER CANADIAN MALARTIC AFTER 2021
9/12/2017TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES: CASILLAS ROAD BLOCKADE, XINCAS CONSULTATION,
APPEALS TO SEPT. 10TH REVERSAL AND JULY 5TH INJUNCTION ISSUES
9/12/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: INDONESIAN OUTCOME DISAPPOINTING
9/8/2017VALEVALE LOWER 400 MMT LONG-TERM IRON ORE PRODUCTION; LOWER 2017
FE, CU, NI OUTPUTS; NICKEL OUTLAYS CUT; SHARE CONVERSIONS
9/7/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - EVIDENCE OF BROAD GLOBAL DEMAND GAINS AND WEAK DOLLAR DRIVE
HIGHER METALS PRICES AS SHARES FOLLOW
9/2/2017METALS EXPANSIONSMETALS - - VOLUME 27 HAS 25 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 22
CLOSINGS IN AUGUST WITH SEVERAL UNEXPECTED SETBACKS
9/1/2017AU 083117ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI ESTIMATED CUT FOR RESTRUCTURING OF SOUTH
AFRICAN ASSETS AND HIGHER OPERATING COSTS; TANZANIA IN DOUBT
8/31/2017NILSKY 083117NORILSK NICKEL: LOWER 2017 NI, CU, AND PT OUTPUT PARTLY OFFSET BY
HIGHER PT AND PD PRICES; HIGHER NET DEBT HURTS NPV
8/30/2017PVG 082917PRETIVM RESOURCES JUNE EARNINGS REPORT A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN MILL THROUGHPUT RATES
8/24/2017ANTO 082417ANTOFAGASTA PLC: HIGHER NEAR-TERM PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING
COSTS IMPROVE OPERATING MARGINS, INCREASING EARNINGS
ESTIMATES AND VALUATION
8/19/2017ARNC 081817ARCONIC CONTINUES PRODUCTION OF REYNOBOND (1) WITH FIRE
RETARDANT, (2) FOR LOW RISE OR (3) FOR EXTERIOR SIGNAGE/FRONTAGE
8/17/2017FIRST QUANTUM 081917FIRST QUANTUM FACES SHORT-TERM DEBT AS IT FINISHES PANAMA;
HIGHER NET DEBT LOWER NPV VALUATION
8/17/2017SPOT MARKETS 081717SPOT MARKETS - - WORLD STAINLESS OUTPUT UP 14.5% IN MARCH QUARTER AS CHINESE
“PLAY POSSUM” CUTTING Cu, Ni, Fe INVENTORIES CAUSING THOSE PRICES TO LAG
8/15/2017CONF PHOTOS AUG 3RDANNUAL “PARTY AND CONFERENCE ON THE JERSEY SHORE” PHOTOS
8/14/2017FNV 081417FRANCO NEVADA MODEL UPDATED TO INCLUDE OUTPUT FROM VICTORIA
GOLD’S DUBLIN GULCH PROJECT AND EXERCISE OF 6.4 MM WARRANTS
8/14/2017BHP 081117BHP BILLITON: HQ VISIT IN MELBOURNE JULY 10th NOTES; MODELED TO
2024 TO CAPTURE JANSEN PROJECT, HIGHER CU AND HIGHER FE OUTPUTS
8/11/2017CONF HIGHLIGHTS BASE METALS AND SMALL CAP TRACK 080317CONFERENCE ON THE JERSEY SHORE BASE METALS AND SMALL CAP
GOLD AUGUST 3RD HIGHLIGHTS
8/9/2017TAHO 080817TAHOE RESOURCES: CASILLAS ROAD BLOCKADE ALSO BLOCKS OUTPUT
IN ADDITION TO JULY 5TH INJUNCTION TO HALT GUATEMALAN MINE
8/7/2017CONF HIGHLIGHTS LARGE CAP TRACK AUG 3METALS CONF. ON JERSEY SHORE “LARGE CAP” AUG. 3RD HIGHLIGHTS
8/6/2017CONF HIGHLIGHTS DAY TWO 080417METALS CONFERENCE ON JERSEY SHORE “DAY TWO” HIGHLIGHTS
8/2/2017CONF MODERATOR SPEECH 080207METALS - - MODERATOR’S COMMENTS TO AUGUST 3-4 CONFERENCE
7/31/2017METALS EXPANSIONS VOL 26 073117METALS - - VOLUME 26 HAS 32 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 23
CLOSINGS IN JULY MOSTLY WITH NEW STEEL & NICKEL PLANTS
7/30/2017NEM 072817NEWMONT MINING GOLD OPERATING COSTS LOWER AND AHAFO OUTPUT
INCREASED AS TWO KEY PROJECTS MOVE AHEAD
7/28/2017RIO TINTORIO TINTO HIGHER 2017 ALUMINUM PRICES OFFSET BY LOWER REALIZED
2017 IRON ORE PRICES AND HIGHER ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
7/28/2017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LIFTS TOP CUTS AT FOSTERVILLE MINE; WIDER &
DEEPER AT MACASSA DISCLOSED ON JUNE 28TH IMPRESSES US TOO
7/27/2017IRON ORE 072717IRON ORE INDUSTRY - - VALE EXITS 19 MMT HIGH SILICA PRODUCTS
7/26/2017U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL SUFFERS POOR PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS EQUIVALENT TO A
$40/TON “COST MISS” OR $400/TON DEVIATION WITHIN 1 M.T. SUBSET
7/25/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: COPING WITH VERY DIFFICULT PRODUCTION
CONDITIONS BETTER THAN IMAGINABLE IN SUCH TOUGH CONDITIONS
7/24/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - EXPECTATION OF TRADE PROTECTION OR TRUMP
SOLUTIONS MAY BE A WORSE CATASTROPHE THAN 1932, 1982 OR 2009
7/17/2017FOREST PRODUCTS 071717FOREST PRODUCTS - - DRY JULY AND FIRE ACTIVITY CREATE PRICE SURGE
7/14/2017SOUTH32SOUTH32 BENEFITS FROM MANGANESE, MET COAL, THERMAL COAL AND
ALUMINUM PRICE REBOUNDS
7/7/2017PVG 070717PRETIVM RESOURCES EARNINGS OUTLOOK VERY IMPROVED WITH JUNE
2017 COMMERCIAL OUTPUT
7/7/2017OSISKO GR 070717OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES DIFFERENTIATES ITSELF FROM STREAMING
COMPANIES IN DIVERSE STRATEGIES AND ORION ACQUISITION
7/7/2017CENTURY ALUM 070617CENTURY ALUMINUM - - HIGHER 2017 LME INGOT PRICE ESTIMATE RAISES
2017 EPS ESTIMATE; HIGHER CASH COSTS AND LOWER FUTURE DIRECT
SHIPMENTS LOWER FUTURE EPS ESTIMATES
7/6/2017TAHOE 070617TAHOE RESOURCES: OUR SPANISH LANGUAGE LITERATURE SURVEY
AFTER ADVERSE JULY 5TH INJUNCTION TO HALT GUATEMALAN MINE
7/5/2017ATI 070517ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES TITANIUM JV FOR “MELTLESS” OR ADDITIVE
POWDER MANUFACTURING IN NEARER NET SHAPES SPECIALTIES
7/5/2017SPOT MARKETS 070417SPOT MARKETS - - EXCHANGE INVENTORIES FALL 15 OF 16 WEEKS TO 8 YEAR LOWS AT 3.63
MMT JUNE 30TH FROM 3.88 MMT MAY 31ST FROM 8.93 MMT MARCH 2013 RECORDS
7/3/2017CONTAINERBOARD MARKET 070317CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY STRUCTURE TO CHANGE AS #2 EUROPEAN
MILL BUYS A U.S. BOX SUPPLIER WITH TWO SMALL MILLS
7/3/2017ANGLO AMERICAN 063017ANGLO AMERICAN: 2017-2019 PRODUCTION, CAPITAL EX AND COMMODITY
PRICE ESTIMATES UPDATED; LOWER NET DEBT LEVELS RAISE NPV
7/2/2017WOR 063017WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - JUNE 2ND AMTROL CYLINDER ACQ
ACCRETIVE; STEEL PROCESSING BEATS FY 2005 RECORD BY $50 MM
7/2/2017METALS EXPANSIONS VOL 25 063017METALS - - VOLUME 25 HAS 34 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 14
CLOSINGS IN JUNE MOSTLY WITH NEW STEEL & ALUMINUM PLANTS
7/2/2017WOR 063017WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - JUNE 2ND AMTROL CYLINDER ACQ
ACCRETIVE; STEEL PROCESSING BEATS FY 2005 RECORD BY $50 MM
7/2/2017METALS - - VOLUME 25METALS - - VOLUME 25 HAS 34 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 14
CLOSINGS IN JUNE MOSTLY WITH NEW STEEL & ALUMINUM PLANTS
6/30/2017ARCONICARCONIC CONTINUES PRODUCTION OF REYNOBOND (1) WITH FIRE
RETARDANT, (2) FOR LOW RISE OR (3) FOR EXTERIOR SIGNAGE/FRONTAGE
6/30/2017ALUMINA LTD 062917ALUMINA LTD: LOWER ALUMINA OPERATING COSTS AND HIGHER
REALIZED PRICES INCREASE EARNINGS AND PRICE TARGET; HIGHER
ESTIMATED 2017 LME ALUMINUM INGOT PRICES
6/30/2017STEEL IND GERDAUSTEEL INDUSTRY - - VISIT TO GERDAU PETERSBURG, VA LARGE
STRUCTURAL MILL JUNE 27TH AND INVESTOR DAY JUNE 28TH
6/29/2017LPX HAYWARD MILL 062717LOUISIANA-PACIFIC JUNE 27TH TOUR OF HAYWARD, WISCONSIN SIDING
AND OSB MILL
6/26/2017ALCOAALCOA EARNINGS AND NPV VALUATIO BOTH BENEFIT FROM FIRM 2017
LME ALUMINUM PRICES AND LOW ALUMINA AND BAUXITE COSTS
6/22/2017CONTAINERBOARD CONTAINERBOARD DEMAND TO BENEFIT FROM AMAZON PURCHASE OF
WHOLE FOODS
6/20/2017ARNCARCONIC PRODUCT IN GRENFELL TOWER TRAGEGY IN UK
6/19/2017METALS DICHOTOMYMETALS - - DICHOTOMOUS MARKETS AS SOME COMMODITIES HIGH AND
OHTERS LOW
6/15/2017ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD PENASQUITO NEAR TERM GOLD PRODUCTION ESTIMATES
REDUCED AND RUBICON TERMS RESTRUCTURING BUILD INTO MODELS
6/13/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - RECORD WORLD STEEL OUTPUT, BUT FINISHED STEEL,
IRON ORE AND MET COAL PRICES SUBSIDE
6/6/2017GOLDCORPGOLDCORP PERSONNEL AT PENASQUITO INVENT SAFER, MORE STABLE
TAILINGS DAM DESIGN IN AN EFFORT TO CONSERVE WATER
6/6/2017EBITDA CoverageMETALS - - REVIEW OF EBITDA COVERAGE RATIOS OF 40 RESOURCE
COMPANIES WITH EYE TO BOND RATINGS
6/1/2017ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES FLAT-ROLLED DIVISION SPINOFF, JV,
TOLLING AND RELATED CHALLENGES
6/1/2017ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES VISIT TO BAKERS, NC TITATIUM MELT,
POWDER, FORGE FOCUS ON AEROSPACE AND HIGH VALUE SPECIALTIES
6/1/2017ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES CUTS COSTS AND CUTS POST-2016 CAP EX
PROFILE; FOCUS ON AEROSPACE AND HIGH VALUE SPECIALTIES
5/31/2017VALEVALE CEO ARTICULATES POLICIES OF HIS OWN FROM THE ONSET
5/30/2017OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES ENJOYS INCREASED VALUE OF EQUITY
HOLDINGS AND GIBRALTAR SILVER STREAM
5/29/2017METALS EXPANSION VOL 24METALS - - VOLUME 24 HAS 44 NEW METALS PLANTS OPENINGS AND 15
CLOSINGS IN MAY MOSTLY WITH NEW STEEL & ALUMINUM PLANTS
5/26/2017COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND REPORTED DOWN 1.6% AND REFINED
OUTPUT DOWN 0.1% WHILE MINE OUTPUT UP 2.2% IN MARCH QUARTER
5/26/2017GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC ALTERNATIVE ZINC AND COAL PRICE SCENARIOS
ANALYZED; SALE OF ZINC ASSETS TO TREVALI BUILT INTO MODELS
5/24/2017GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - CHANGES IN GDXJ HOLDINGS OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS
5/23/2017SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD EPS NPV ESTIMATE RAISED FOR MARIANA RESOURCES
30% STALE IN HOT MADEN HIGH GRADE AU-CU MINE IN TURKEY
5/22/2017ARCONICARCONIC DIVIDES SIX MAN BOARD WITH THREE DIRECTORS NOMINATED
BY ELLIOT MGT. AND THREE BY THE COMPANY
5/18/2017METALS APERAM RATINGMETALS - - EUROPEAN STAINLESS PRODUCER “APERAM” UPGRADED TO
INVESTMENT GRADE BOND RATING
5/17/2017WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER HIGHER BOND RATING SHOULD EQUATE TO FIRMER
DIVIDEND YIELD
5/17/2017METALS POLITICSMETALS - - TRUMP CONGRESSIONAL POLITICAL OPPOSITION UNDERMINES
POLICY AGENDAS
5/15/2017GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - GOLD PRICES AND DYNAMICS QUIET IN 2017; GDXJ
REBALANCE CRUSHES SOME MID-CAP GOLD MINES
5/15/2017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD INCREASES RESERVES AND RESERVE GRADES AT
MACASSA AND FOSTERVILLE
5/12/2017GRUPO MEXICOGRUPO MEXICO: FEC RAILROAD ACQUISITION INCORPORATED INTO
MODELS; PESO DEVALUATION PRESSURES DIVISIONAL MARGINS
5/8/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: POTENTIAL LONE STAR MILL AROUND 2024
5/7/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: CHINO, SAFFORD, EL ABRA, GRASBERG DEEP
ORE ZONE, OTHERS FELL AS “CONTINUING” CU OUTPUT FELL 11%
5/5/2017TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES ENJOYS “IDEAL QUARTER” FOR MARCH; ESTIMATED
EFFECTIVE TAX RATE LOWERED
5/5/2017CONTAINERBOARDCONTAINERBOARD AND CORRUGATED BOX PRICING OVER THE PAST NINE
QUARTERS
5/3/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - OUTPUT UP 6%-10% IN EARLY 2017 EXCEPT NI & AG WITH FIRM PRICES AND
RESTARTS; MAYBE WORLD DEMAND FIRM TOO
5/1/2017BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: ELABORATION ON 10 KM DISTANCE TO “SOUTH FLANK”
REPLACEMENT AND MARCH 29TH 80 MMT YANDI DEPLETION WARNING
4/27/2017BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: LOWER ESTIMATED 2017 COPPER, IRON ORE, COAL AND OIL
OUTPUTS; LOWER NEAR TERM IRON ORE PRICES; HIGHER CAP EX WITH 80
MMT YANDI DEPLETION WARNING
4/27/2017METALSMETALS - - VOLUME 23 DESCRIBES LARGE GAINS IN OUTPUT WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CHINA & ROW; MANY MORE OPENINGS AND NEW PLANTS
4/27/2017FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS: OUR LOWER IRON ORE PRODUCTION AND PRICE
ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS AND PRICE TARGET
4/26/2017U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL SUFFERS POOR PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS EQUIVALENT TO A
$40/TON “COST MISS” OR $400/TON DEVIATION WITHIN 1 M.T. SUBSET
4/26/2017FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS - - WOOD STOCKS DOWNGRADED WITH SHARE PRICE
GAINS AND HISTORIC MAY 15TH WOOD PRICE SEASONAL PEAKS
4/26/2017GOLDCORPGOLDCORP NUEVA UNION CAPEX ESTIMATED INCREASED; SEVERAL LOW
GRADE GOLD-COPPER PROJECTS COMPARED WITH CERRO CASALE
4/21/2017IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - SPOT PRICES FALL AS WORLD STEEL OUTPUT UP,
MINES DEPLETING, NECESSARY EXPANSIONS QUASHED, GRADES FALL
4/17/2017ARCONICARCONIC INSTALLES EX-PRATT & WHITNEY JET ENGINE HEAD AS CEO;
POSSIBLE TACTICS TO GROW REVENUES, CUT COSTS OR CUT DEBT
4/12/2017ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD, RUBICON’S PHOENIX PROJECT ADDED BACK TO MODEL.
PASCUA LAMA NSR PERCENTAGE INCREASED BY 0.74%
4/11/2017RIO TINTORIO TINTO DETAILED MODEL EXTENDED TO 2030 TO INCORPORATE 2025-30
MONGOLIA U/G, LA GRANJA 2024, RESOLUTION 2026-30 AND BUYBACKS
4/10/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - TRUMP DE-REGULATIONS TO ENCOURAGE OFFSHORE
DRILLING TO BENEFIT “MIX” FOR HIGH VALUE STEELMAKERS
4/5/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - OUTPUTS RISE 6% TO 30% IN EARLY 2017 WITH
RESTARTS OR NEW CAPACITY; MAYBE WORLD DEMAND FIRMER TOO
4/4/2017BIG SIX NET DEBTMETALS - - COMPARISON OF 2015, 2016, AND 2017E YEAR-END BALANCE
SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES (BHP Billiton,
Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore, and Teck)
3/31/2017METALS EXPANSIONS VOL 22METALS - - VOLUME 22 DESCRIBES MORE REOPENINGS AND NEW
INVESTMENTS THAN SHUTDOWNS
3/31/2017NEWMONT MINING SURINAMENEWMONT MINING COMMENTS FROM MARCH 2ND SURINAME MINE VISIT;
COMPANYWIDE MODELS UPDATED FOR YEAR-END RESULTS
3/31/2017GUYANA GOLDFIELDSGUYANA GOLDFIELDS SITE VISIT TO AURORA GOLD MINE MARCH 3RD
3/30/2017FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA ASSET PORTFOLIO UPDATES BENEFIT PRICE TARGET
3/29/2017GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V.GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V. BUYS FL EAST COAST RAILWAY FOR 60% OF
PRICE FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP PAID IN JUNE 2007 PRE-CRISIS
3/28/2017ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM AND ALUMINA OUTPUTS MAKE NEW RECORDS AS EXCESS
SUPPLY DEBACLE UNFOLDS
3/28/2017VALEVALE APPOINTS OUTSIDER FOR SIX YEAR CEO TERM
3/27/2017WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - RESTORED TO OVERWEIGHT AS SHARES
RETREAT FROM NOVEMBER 2016 RECORD AS FUNDAMENTALS BETTER
3/24/2017METALS OUTPUTMETALS - - DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS IN JANUARY 2017 WORLD OUTPUT;
HUDBAY AND NORILSK NICKEL TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT
3/24/2017CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - CHINESE SLOW PURCHASES NEAR $270-
$280/METRIC T AS IP PENSACOLA, FL RESTART PLAUSIBLE IN LATE-APRIL
3/23/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - WORLD OUTPUT UP 5.8% JAN-FEB 2017
3/23/2017PAPER MARKET FOREST PRODUCTS: U.S. PAPER AND BOARD MARKET LONG-TERM
GROWTH RATES COMPARING 2016 VERSUS PEAK YEAR 1999
3/21/2017TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES SHORTER MINE LIVES AND HIGHER OPERATING COST
ESTIMATES ACROSS PORTFOLIO
3/16/2017VALEVALE SHAREHOLDER SENTIMENT IMPLIED IN DISCOUNT RATE, IRON ORE
PRICE OR COSTS REFLECTED IN CURRENT SHARE PRICE
3/15/2017FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS SHAREHOLDER SENTIMENT IMPLIED IN DISCOUNT
RATE, IRON ORE PRICE OR COSTS REFLECTED IN CURRENT SHARE PRICE
3/14/2017ARCELORMITTAL CALVERT, ALARCELORMITTAL STEEL’S AM/NS CALVERT INVESTOR SITE VISIT ON
MARCH 7th 2017
3/13/2017SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON. PASCUA-LAMA MODELED AS AN UNDERGROUND MINE
BEGINNING PRODUCTION IN 2021; TOUR OF ANTAMINA MARCH 3RD
3/13/2017OUTOKUMPU STAINLESS ALSTEEL INDUSTRY - - OUTOKUMPU ANALYST SITE VISIT TO CALVERT,
ALABAMA STAINLESS FACILITY ON MARCH 7th 2017
3/12/2017METALS INVENTORIESMETALS--EXCHANGE INVENTORIES RISE 11 OF PAST 13 WEEKS BY 585,590 T
3/10/2017NORBORD SC TRIPNORBORD TOUR OF THEIR JOANNA, SOUTH CAROLINA ORIENTED STRAND
BOARD MILL
3/9/2017METALS TORONTO PROSPECTORS CONV.METALS - - ANNUAL “PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS ASSOCIATION
CONVENTION” HAS PRESENTATIONS ON WATER TREATMENT LIABILITIES
AS WELL AS MINERAL DISCOVERIES
3/8/2017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LOWER COSTS, HAS HIGHER CAP EX AND FINDS
“LANTERN ZONE” AT COSMO IN NORTHERN TERRITORIES
3/2/2017VALEVALE EARNINGS ESTIMATES INCREASED DUE TO HIGHER IRON ORE AND
COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES; INCREASED DIVIDEND PAYOUT ESTIMATES
3/2/2017BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD’S PASCUA-LAMA PROJECT AS AN UNDERGROUND MINE;
2017 GOLD PRODUCTION GUIDANCE EXCEEDS PRIOR ESTIMATES
2/28/2017NICKEL INDUSTRYNICKEL INDUSTRY - - PRICE GAINS SLOW AS INDONESIA, NEW CALEDONIA
AND PHILIPPINES COULD SURPRISE WITH MORE OUTPUT THAN EXPECTED
2/28/2017WOOD FIRM FOREST PRODUCTS : WOOD PRICES ACCELERATE IN FEBRUARY IN LINE
WITH HISTORIC SPRING FAVORABLE SEASONALITY; OSB > $300 AND
PLYWOOD & LUMBER > $400
2/28/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - NEARLY ½ MMT OF MOSTLY AL, CU AND PB EXCHANGE
INVENTORY APPEAR SINCE DECEMBER MOSTLY FROM CHINA
2/27/2017METALS EXPANSIONS VOL 21METALS - - VOLUME 21 DESCRIBES MORE REOPENINGS AND NEW
INVESTMENTS THAN SHUTDOWNS
2/26/2017AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES LONGER MINE LIVES AND HIGHER TAX DEFERRALS
MORE THAN OFFSET HIGHER OPERATING, EXPLORATION, OTHER EXPENSE
2/24/2017FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS BENEFITS FROM LOWER OPERATING COSTS AND
HIGHER REALIZED PRICES; PRODUCTION LEVELS STABLE
2/24/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: BALANCE SHEET IMPROVES, NO RESERVE
REPLACEMENT AND COMPLEX INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENTS
2/23/2017VALEVALE DECLARES $1.52 BILLION APRIL DIVIDEND OR 152% OF THE $4
BILLION WE HAD ESTIMATED FROM 2018 ONWARDS
2/16/2017DOMTAR DOMTAR CAPEX RAISED, PAPER SHIPMENTS FALL, PAPER PRICE
ESTIMATES DECREASED AND SHARE BUYBACKS NOT AS RAPID
2/15/2017SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. HIGHER OUTPUT RAISES EARNINGS AND
VALUATION AS ANNOUNCED JANUARY 31ST TO 1.5 MMT MID-2023
2/15/2017NORTHERN DYNASTYNORTHERN DYNASTY WAITS FOR POTENTIAL JV PARTNERS OWN
TECHNICAL STUDIES; VICTIM OF HISTORIC BEAR RAID
2/14/2017NORILSK NICKELNORILSK NICKEL HAS MET ABOUT ½ OF OUR UPSIDE TARGET, WHILE
NICKEL MARKET UPSIDE TRAJECTORY “GRADUAL” WITHOUT SHORTAGES
2/13/2017CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FEW ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES AFTER IP
LOSES 520,000 TONS OF CAPACITY IN PENSACOLA, FL JAN. 22ND EXPLOSION
2/9/2017COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MOST STRIKES OR DISRUPTIONS ARE TEMPORARY,
WHERE REFUSALS TO INVEST OR DECISIONS TO INVEST HAVE LEAD TIMES
2/7/2017GOLDCORPGOLDCORP FORECASTS LOWER 2017-19 AND HIGHER 2020-21 OUTPUT THAN
OUR PRIOR ESTIMATES; LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES
2/6/2017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD HIGHER CAP EX AND EXPLORATION
2/3/2017ARCONICARCONIC: LOWER ENGINEERED PRODUCTS REVENUE GROWTH HURTS
EARNINGS ESTIMATES WHILE LOWER CASH TAX RATES, HIGHER CASH
BALANCES AND HIGHER ALCOA VALUATION RAISE VALUATION
1/31/2017METALS EXPANSIONSMETALS - - VOLUME 20 LARGELY DESCRIBES REOPENINGS AND NEW
INVESTMENTS NO LONGER DISTRESS SHUTDOWNS
1/31/2017TECKTECK HIGHER EARNINGS OUTLOOK WITH LOWER COSTS AND HIGHER
NEAR TERM COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES
1/31/2017RIO TINTORIO TINTO LOWER NEAR TERM COAL PRODUCTION AND PRICES HURT
EARNINGS; HIGHER COPPER AND IRON PRICES PARTIALLY OFFSET;
GRASBERG STEPUP TO 40% IN 2023 NOT 2021 WITH SLOWER MINING;
1/31/2017COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND STEADY, WHILE SCRAP SUPPLY PLUNGES
AND SEVEN COMPANIES CUT 2017 MINE OUTPUT PROFILES
1/31/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SCRAP COLLECTIONS 68.7% OF 2011 LEVELS WITH 4 OF
6 REPORTING FOURTH-QUARTER; FEBRUARY STEEL SCRAP MAY FALL $42
1/29/2017METALS “LAZARUS STOCKS”METALS “LAZARUS STOCKS” SEE REBOUNDS OVER FIVEFOLD FROM LOWS
1/29/2017METALS INVENTORYMETALS SEE LARGEST EXCHANGE INVENTORY RISE IN FOUR YEARS
1/27/2017ALCOAALCOA HIGHER 2017 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND LOWER DEPRECIATION
INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATE; HIGHER NET DEBT EQUIVALENTS TRIP
PRICE TARGET DESPITE LOWER FUTURE CAP. EX. ESTIMATES
1/27/2017WESTROCKWESTROCK BENEFITS FROM $50/T OCTOBER 1ST CONTAINERBOARD HIKE,
POSSIBLE 2ND $50/T AFTER IP PENSACOLA MISHAP AND $50/T FOR CERTAIN
FOLDING CARTON PAPERS; BUYS MPSX AND SELLS SPRAY NOZZLES
1/26/2017FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM COPPER OUTPUT GUIDANCE LOWER THAN EXPECTED;
BULLISH IMPLICATIONS FOR COPPER PRICES
1/24/2017WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER. HIGHER LUMBER AND OSB PRICES AND LOWER NET
DEBT BALANCE BENEFIT VALUATION
1/21/2017LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC, HIGHER 2017 AND 2018 OSB ESTIMATED
REALIZATIONS PARTLY OFFSET BY HIGHER OPERATING COST ESTIMATES
1/21/2017NORBORD NORBORD 2017 AND 2018 OSB PRICE REALIZATION ESTIMATES RAISED;
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO VARIOUS 2017 AND 2018 OSB PRICES
1/13/2017TAHOE RESOURCES INCORPORATETAHOE RESOURCES INCORPORATE TWO LARGE NEW PROJECTS, HIGHER
CAP EX AND SLOWER GOLD PRICE UPTURNS
1/12/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: TAX BENEFITS FROM SALE OF US OIL&GAS
OPERATIONS INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND NPV; OTHER CHANGES
1/10/2017OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES AND ROYAL GOLD UPDATED FOR CURRENT
GOLD PRICE SCENARIO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS
1/6/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - IRON ORE DISPLACES DECLINING SCRAP VOLUMES
1/5/2017FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS DECEMBER AND MARCH QUARTERLY EARNINGS
SURPRISE UPSIDES FOR OSB, LPX, WY, WFTBF, WRK, PKG, IP, KS, OTHERS
1/5/2017ARCONICARCONIC FORECASTS HIGHER POTENTIAL MARGINS; TO SWITCH TO AUTO
SHEETS AND EXIT BEVERAGE CANS
1/4/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS DEMAND FIRM; MINERS TARDY NOT REOPENING SCRAP
YARDS AND COPPER, ZINC, LEAD, NICKEL, IRON ORE, MET COAL MINES
12/31/2016NICKEL INDUSTRYNICKEL HAS 4.7% DROP IN MINE OUTPUT, 0.2% DROP IN REFINED OUTPUT
AND 7.2% GAIN IN APPARENT DEMAND IN OCTOBER 2016 YTD WBMS DATA
12/30/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI MODELS UPDATED FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES
12/29/2016SUPERALLOY WARSMETALS “ALLOY COMPETITION” AMONG AEROSPACE, JET ENGINE AND
HIGH PRECISION SUPPLIERS
12/29/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 19METALS - - VOLUME 19 OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES 21
EXPANSIONS AND 10 SHUTDOWNS IN DECEMBEER AFTER 23 EXPANSIONS
AND 11 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN DECEMBER
12/29/2016SUPERALLOY WARSMETALS “ALLOY COMPETITION” AMONG AEROSPACE, JET ENGINE AND
HIGH PRECISION SUPPLIERS
12/29/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM AND ALUMINA OUTPUTS MAKE NEW RECORDS IN SEPTEMBER,
OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER MOVING INTO OVERSUPPLY
12/28/2016GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V.GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V. HIGHER FUTURE COPPER PRICES AND
PRODUCTION GENERATE HIGHER FUTURE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
12/28/2016CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES ENJOYS PRICE APPRECIATION EVEN THOUGH NITROGEN
PRICES AND EARNINGS FALL SHARPLY
12/24/2016AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES LOWER GOLD PRICE AND LOWER OPERATING
COSTS AT MEXICAN ASSETS DUE TO A WEAKER MEXICAN PESO
12/22/2016NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING CASH FLOW OUTLOOK UNDERMINED BY LOWER GOLD
PRICES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES
12/20/2016ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER NEAR TERM PRICES OFFSET BY LOWER
ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
12/19/2016VALEVALE ENJOYS $3+ BILLION SALES VALUE FOR FERTILIZERS
12/15/2016ALUMINUM & STEELALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIES: ARCONIC SPINOFF TO EXIT BEVERAGE
CAN BODY STOCK PRESUMABLY HAS LARGE NEW AUTO ORDERS
12/15/2016ALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIESALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIES: ARCONIC SPINOFF TO EXIT BEVERAGE
CAN BODY STOCK PRESUMABLY HAS LARGE NEW AUTO ORDERS
12/12/2016GOLDCORPGOLDCORP LOWER GOLD PRICES OFFSET BY 0.5% LOWER DISCOUNT RATE;
LOS FILOS SALE VALUED AT $400 MILLION.
12/7/2016VALEVALE CHARGES “HIGHER THAN SCREEN PRICES” FOR 65% FE CARAJAS
BLEND; FUTURE EMPHASIS ON DEBT REPAYMENT AND DIVIDENDS
12/7/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO ENHANCED COST REDUCTION TARGETS, OUTPUT RESTRAINT
AND NO DISCUSSION OF PRICING GAINS UPSIDES
12/6/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON BENEFITS FROM TURNAROUND IN BASE METALS
ESPECIALLY AT VALE VIA TWO SALOBO PENDING POSSIBLE EXPANSIONS
12/6/2016ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN: ADDITIONAL ASSET SALES, LOWER CAPEX, HIGHER
MET COAL AND IRON ORE PRICES INCREASE CASH FLOW AND VALUATION
12/2/2016SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD BENEFITS FROM DEBT PAYDOWNS AND PORTFOLIO
GAINS; PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER GOLD PRICES AND MORE SHARES
11/30/2016FORTESCUE SITE VISITFORTESCUE METALS VISITS TO HQ INVESTOR DAY, KINGS & FIRETAIL
MINES AND PORT HEDLAND; STEADY TONS, COST CUTS AND DEBT CUTS
11/30/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS VISITS TO HQ INVESTOR DAY, KINGS & FIRETAIL
MINES AND PORT HEDLAND; STEADY TONS, COST CUTS AND DEBT CUTS
11/29/2016FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA BENEFITS FROM FIRMER COPPER ENHANCING
PROJECTS, WHILE RECENT GOLD PRICE SELLOFF TRIMS REVENUES
11/28/2016METALS FOUR STRATEGIESMETALS - - COMPARING FOUR STRATEGIES
11/27/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 18METALS - - VOLUME 18 OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES 23
EXPANSIONS AND 11 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN NOVEMBER
11/23/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK EARNINGS AND PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO LOWER FOLDING
CARTON PRICES AND CONSUMER PREFERENCE TO FRESH FOODS
11/22/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LIKELY NEARER BREAKEVEN IN 2017 DUE TO
HIGHER AMORTIZATION STEP-UP BIG LOSSES ON AUSSIE MINES
11/18/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD PRICE TARGET FALLS WITH 2017 GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK;
SENSITIVITY TO LARGER AND EARLIER DONLIN CREEK PROJECT STUDIED
11/18/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING: SALE OF TENKE FUNGURUME INCORPORATED; LOWER
PRECIOUS METAL PRICE ESTIMATES
11/17/2016HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS: FAVORABLE REVISIONS TO DEFERRED TAX,
DISCOUNT RATE, CAP EX AND OP EX OFFSET SOFT 2016-17 COPPER PRICES
11/16/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - STRONG DOLLAR AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES HURT
INVESTMENT DEMAND; WE CUT 2017 GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES TO $1,200
11/16/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON. PASCUA-LAMA MODELED BEGINNING CHILE OUTPUT
IN 2026; LOWER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES.
11/16/2016METALS TRUMP INFRASTRUCTUREMETALS - - IT IS OKAY TO USE TRUMP SURPRISE ELECTION VICTORY AS
AN EXCUSE TO REVERSE OUTDATED OR DEAD WRONG INVESTMENT VIEW
11/14/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LETTER TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS
11/10/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - EARLY 2016 RALLY OVER; LOOK TO FIVE EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS BY SEPTEMBER 2017 FOR ONE OR TWO TO MOVE TO EU EXIT
11/10/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: FOCUS ON 3 KEY LARGE COPPER MINES; LOW
2017 AND 2018 CAP EX, PENT UP CAPITAL PROJECTS & LIKELY U.S. TAX CUT
11/9/2016CORP. TAX RATETRUMP PROPOSAL TO CUT CORPORATE TAX RATE IMPACTS 13 OF THE 45
OR SO COMPANIES UNDER OUR FULL RESEARCH COVERAGE
11/9/2016METALS, FOREST PRODUCTS, FERTILIZERS ELECTIONMARKET QUIET REACTIONS TO TRUMP VICTORY; TRUMP PROPOSALS TO
CUT CORPORATE INCOME TAX, REPEAL NAFTA AND CREATE JOBS
11/8/2016AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES BENEFITS AS AMARUQ LIKELY GOLD OUTPUT
BIGGER, MELIADINE ECONOMICS MAY IMPROVE AND CASH “FLOWS”
11/6/2016LPX 110618LOUISIANA-PACIFIC REPURCHASES 4.4 MM SHARES YTD; EXPECTS
DEMAND REBOUND
11/2/2016SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. LOWER COPPER AND BYPRODUCT PRICES
ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY LOWER 2016 OPERATING COSTS
11/1/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD DISCLOSES MULTIPLE BIDS AFTER SEPT. 29TH; TO
DEVELOP RESERVES AND RESOURCES TO IMPROVE MARKET CONFIDENCE
10/31/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES COULD BENEFIT FROM ACQUIRING KIRKLAND LAKE
GOLD BASED ON SYNERGIES AND LOWER KIRKLAND LAKE VALUATION
10/31/2016ARCONIC ARNCARCONIC POTENTIAL STRATEGIES TO REDUCE DEBT TO COMMAND
SINGLE-A CREDIT RATING
10/31/2016ALCOA UPSTREAMALCOA RESTRUCTURED “UPSTREAM” COMPANY EARNS ABOUT 7 CENTS
PER LB FROM CASTING AND ELECTRICITY
10/31/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 17METALS - - VOLUME SEVENTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS
TALLIES 24 EXPANSIONS AND 28 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN OCTOBER
10/22/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER MODELED ESTIMATING 40% OF OCTOBER 1, 2016
$50/TON CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKE STICKS
10/20/2016COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND GAIN, SCRAP 1+ MMT FALL AND CHILEAN
& DRC CONGO OUTPUT FALLS ABSORB NEAR RECORD NEW MINE OUTPUT
10/20/2016PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA’SPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA’S OPERATING COSTS SEE HIGHER INPUT
PRICES; 40% OF OCT 1ST $50/TON CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKE MODELED
10/20/2016ALUMINA LTDALUMINA LTD: LOWER 2016 OPERATING COSTS AND CAPEX ESTIMATES
INCREASE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW; LONG TERM ALUMINUM PRICE
ESTIMATES OF $0.87/LB DETRACT FROM PRICE TARGET
10/18/2016METALS PRICE TRENDMETALS - - TRENDS OF U.S. DOLLAR, INTEREST RATES AND DEFLATION
VERSUS PRICE CHARTS VERSUS SUPPLY ATTRITION SECTORS
10/13/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD SIMULATED WITH DONLIN GOLD, LAMA, ALTURAS, AND
PASCUA PROJECTS ADDED TO OUR MODEL WITH BETTER BALANCE SHEET
10/13/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - WHILE SCRAP STEEL PLUNGED AGAIN IN OCTOBER,
WE ESTIMATE A $75-$100/T RISE BASED ON INGREDIENT COSTS
10/7/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC LOWER COPPER PRICES OFFSET BY HIGHER ZINC, NICKEL,
AND MET COAL PRICES; SALEs OF 30% OF ERNST HENRY ECONOMIC
INTEREST AND AN ADDED 9.99% INTERST IN AG BUSINESS
10/7/2016ALUMINUMALUMINUM OUTPUT RESTRAINT IN CHINA AND ROW GREATER THAN
EXPECTED AS JUNE 2015 WORLD OUTPUT RECORDS NOT YET BROKEN
10/6/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS FALLING INVENTORIES AND LOWER ORE, CONCENTRATE
AND SCRAP SUPPLIES FOR CU, NI, PB AND ZN AT LOW PRICES
10/6/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER WOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT VALUATION RAISED ON
HIGHER OSB AND LUMBER PRICES; EFFECTIVE TAX RATE INCREASED.
10/4/2016VALEVALE: HIGHER NICKEL PRICES AND LOWER 2017 CAPEX OFFSET BY LOWER
COPPER PRICES AND IRON ORE OUTPUT; MORE ASSET SALES MADE
10/4/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO: LOWER NEAR TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT AND COPPER PRICES
OFFSET BY HIGHER MET COAL PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
10/3/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 16METALS - - VOLUME SIXTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES
26 EXPANSIONS AND 25 SHUTDOWNS IN SEPTEMBER
9/30/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ACQUIRES UNDER DEFINED UNDERGROUND GOLD
MINES AND INFUSES NEW BLOOD WITH RESPECTED MANAGERS
9/29/2016NORBORD NORBORD 2017 AND 2018 NORTH AMERICAN OSB PRICE REALIZATION
ESTIMATES RAISED
9/29/2016WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - RECORD QUARTER DRIVEN BY STEEL
PROCESSING AND CLARKDIETRICH JV SELLING-PRICE-TO-INPUT COSTS
9/27/2016FERTILIZER INDUSTRYFERTILIZER INDUSTRY - - CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER ARGUMENTS IN
FAVOR OF A VEGETARIAN DIET
9/27/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD ANDACOLLO GOLD OUTPUT INCREASED BASED ON 2016
TECK GUIDANCE; ILOVICA PROJECT REMOVED; SENSITIVITY TO PASCUA .
9/23/2016FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA UPDATED DEPRECIATION ESTIMATES RAISED BASED ON
2016 GUIDANCE WHILE OIL AND GAS REVENUES CUT.
9/21/2016GOLD CONF. COLORADO GOLD INDUSTRY- -AUDIENCE IN COLORADO SPRINGS MAYBE A RECORD
9/20/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SEPT. MET COAL RISES $75+/t ALMOST TO SCRAP
EQUAL SCRAP STEEL, WHICH PLUNGES $20-$30/T OR NOW DOWN $61-$71/T
FROM PEAKS OR SCRAP STEEL UP JUST $27-$46/T FROM LOWS
9/19/2016BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: LOWER EARNINGS, COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES, AND
PETROLEUM PRODUCTION PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER COSTS; HIGHER
NEAR TERM CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES
9/19/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON ADDITIONAL 25% GOLD STREAM ON VALE’S SALOBO
MINE IN BRAZIL BRING TOTAL GOLD STREAM TO 75%
9/15/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING COPPER, LEAD AND ZINC RESERVES FELL; UPDATED COST
AND PRODUCTION GUIDANCE
9/14/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. SALE OF GULF OF MEXICO PROPERTIES TO
ANADARKO; LOWER NEAR TERM COPPER PRICES INCORPORATED
9/13/2016LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC SIDING SEGMENT OPERATING PROFIT ESTIMATES
INCREASED BASED ON Q2 2016 RESULTS
9/10/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SEPT. SCRAP PLUNGES $20-$30/T OR NOW DOWN $61-
$71/T FROM PEAKS; UP JUST $27-$46/T FROM LOWS EVEN THOUGH
INGREDIENTS UP ABOUT $53/T
8/31/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - GOLD BULLION ETFs VS. MID-CAP GOLD SHARES VS.
LARGE CAP GOLD SHARES IN EXPECTATION OF RISING GOLD PRICES
8/31/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK FUTURE CAPEX ESTIMATES SHAVED; CONSUMER SEGMENT PROFIT
ESTIMATES RAISED BASED ON STRONG 6/30/16 QUARTER PERFORMANCE
8/31/2016IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - SPOT PRICES FIRM AS WORLD STEEL OUTPUT
RISING; VARIETY OF STATISTICAL ISSUES AND EMBELLISHMENTS
8/31/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS ENJOYS CONSISTENT VOLUMES, COST REDUCTIONS
AND DEBT REDUCTIONS
8/30/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY SUFFERS FROM EXCESS LOCAL CAPACITY AND
COMPETITION AS DEMAND FALLS AGAIN IN 2016 AFTER 10% 2015 DROP
8/29/2016U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL RAISES ALMOST $0.5 BIL. IN EQUITY TO “PREPARE FOR A RAINY
DAY” SUCH AS A RECESSION, CHINESE AUTO OR CHINESE STEEL EXPORTS
8/29/2016TECKTECK: HIGHER ZINC, MOLYBDENUM, and GOLD PRICES AND LOWER NEAR
TERM OPERATING COSTS RAISE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/26/2016SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS – EVIDENCES OF DEMAND GROWTH AS MINE SUPPLIES
FALL VERY SHARPLY IN LEAD, ZINC, NICKEL AND MOLY; PRICES RAISED
8/26/2016PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL DUE TO
SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TRIP ALONG THE MORENCI COPPER MINE
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. MOUNTAIN GOAT HERD AND DEER OBSERVED
NEAR MORENCI OPEN PITS ACCESS ROAD ON AUGUST 6TH
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TARGETS $10 BILLION NET DEBT TO APPROACH
INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT RATING OR RESUME A DIVIDEND
8/16/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI ESTIMATED COSTS RISE WITH STRONGER LONG
TERM A$ AND RAND; SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD OUTPUT ESTIMATE CUT
8/3/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM PAYS A SMALL DIVIDEND AND PREDICTS PANAMA
COMMISSIONING IN LATE-2018; HIGHER GOLD, NICKEL, AND ZINC PRICES
8/3/2016SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. LOWER COPPER PRICES, HIGHER BYPRODUCT
PRICES, AND LOWER COSTS IMPACT OUR FINANCIAL MODELS
8/2/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 14 METALS - - VOLUME FOURTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS
TALLIES 15 EXPANSIONS AND 29 SHUTDOWNS
7/26/2016PACKAGING CORP.PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA “PACKAGING” MARGINS RAISED DUE TO
LOWER COSTS AND HIGHER PRICES FROM THE TIMBAR ACQUISITION
7/26/2016MOSAIC CORP.MOSAIC CORP. LOW DAP AND POTASH PRICES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER
COSTS OF GOODS SOLD
7/26/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES BENEFITS FROM HIGHER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES
7/25/2016NICKEL MARKETNICKEL INDUSTRY ENJOYS 9.3% DROP IN MINE OUTPUT WITH 20.2% GAIN
IN APPARENT DEMAND MAY 2016 YTD WBMS DATA
7/20/2016ROYALTY REVENUE ANALYSISGOLD INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF STREAMING AND ROYALTY INSTRUMENTS
7/19/2016POLYMET MININGPOLYMET MINING QUEST FOR MINING PERMITS CONTINUES; LIKELY
OUTCOMES IN CONTEXT OF 2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
7/19/2016DOMTARDOMTAR EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET DECREASED DUE TO
LOWER PULP PRICES AND FEWER ESTIMATED FUTURE SHARE BUYBACKS
7/19/2016GOLD EUGOLD - - NEG. RATES, EU BUDGET, ELECTIONS, SECURITY AND STABILITY
7/14/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD UPGRADED DUE TO HIGHER GOLD PRICES AND
MORE GENEROUS INDUSTRYWIDE GOLD MINE VALUATIONS
7/14/2016LUNDIN MINING CORRECTIONLUNDIN MINING CORRECTION TO CUT EAGLE MINE PRODUCTION
ESTIMATES CONCERNING EAGLE EAST
7/13/2016NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING SIMPLIFIES WITH EXIT FROM INDONESIA; GOLD PRICE
ESTIMATES AND 200% UP FROM 150% PREMIUM TO NPV INCREASED
7/13/2016GOLD PRICE CHANGESHIGHER GOLD PRICES AND A HIGHER MULTIPLE TO NPV BENEFIT OUR
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGETS
7/12/2016MONETARY STIMULUSMETALS, ESPECIALLY GOLD, IMPACTED BY WEAK MONETARY POLICIES;
SUPPLY RESTRAINT AND FIRM DEMAND ALSO IMPORTANT
7/12/2016NORILSKNORILSK NICKEL HIGHER PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES DUE
TO PHILIPPINE MINE CLOSINGS, HIGHER NICKEL AND PLATINUM PRICES
7/12/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING INCLUSION OF EAGLE EAST; LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED COPPER PRICE ENVIRONMENT
7/7/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD’S MT MILLIGAN METALS GOLD STREAM RESTRUCTURED BY
CENTERRA GOLD; HIGHER GOLD PRICES AND VALUATION METRICS
7/7/2016COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND SURGE PLUS SCRAP DECLINES CREATE
“NEAR SHORTAGE” TO BLUNT MINE OUTPUT GAINS AND STRONG DOLLAR
6/29/2016ALCOAALCOA BALANCE SHEET DETAILS OF THE NEW ALCOA AND ARCONIC
6/28/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME THIRTEEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST
2015 SHOWS MORE EXPANSIONS THAN SHUTDOWNS
6/27/2016BREXIT CONFUSIONMETALS AND RESOURCES SUFFER “BREXIT CONFUSION”
6/25/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER EXPOSED TO FIVE FORCES THAT PREVENT IT FROM
BEING A “RISK-FREE ASSET” PERFECT VERSUS A TREASURY BOND
6/24/2016LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODEL UPDATED FOR RECENT PRICING GAINS AND
LOWER OSB SEGMENT OPERATING COSTS BASED ON FIRST-QUARTER 2016
6/24/2016HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS: METALS PRICE ESTIMATES CUT; ROSEMONT PUSHED
BACK TO 2021 IN OUR MODELS; EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT
6/24/2016NORILSK NICKELNORILSK NICKEL COVERAGE INITIATION AFTER PHILIPPINES AND
INDONESIA CUT NICKEL OUTPUTS
6/24/2016CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES COMPLETES CAPITAL PROGRAM, GROWS VOLUME AND
CAN ENJOY LARGE CASH FLOWS AT NORMAL NITROGREN PRICES
6/23/2016SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD BENEFITS FROM COMMERCIAL PROGRESS AS
NUMEROUS DEVELOPMENT STAGE ASSETS ADDED TO OUR MODEL
6/23/2016SPOTMARKETSFOUR DATA DUMPS – APRIL WBMS NONFERROUS AND MAY GLOBAL STEEL, GLOBAL ALUMINUM AND U.S. CORRUGATED BOX SQ FT
6/22/2016VALE ASSETSVALE HAS FOUR ALTERNATIVES CONCERNING POSSIBLE “ASSET SALES” >
$15 BILLION EXCLUDING CORE FE, NI, CU UNITS
6/18/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LARGE TRADING VOLUME NEAR CLOSE JUNE 17TH
6/16/2016ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE AND LONG TERM ALUMINA
PRODUCTION ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
6/13/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPOINTS NEW CEO; PRICE
APPRECIATION AND FUTURE DIRECTION UNCERTAINTIES
6/12/2016GOLD INDUSTRY SYNTHETIC ABX Packages 4+ mm oz OutputGOLD INDUSTRY - - CONSTRUCTION OF A “SYNTHETIC ABX” AT A
CHEAPER VALUATION < FIVE TIMES NPV
6/10/2016GOLD AND OIL GOLD INDUSTRY - - CRUDE OIL PRICES LIKELY TO FORCE GOLD PRICES UP
WHETHER OIL RISES OR FALLS; SAUDI ECONOMIC PLAN WEAKNESSES
6/10/2016CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EPS
ESTIMATES; LOWER CASH COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
6/9/2016VALEVALE: HIGHER IRON ORE PRODUCTION AND LOWER 2016 CAPEX OFFSET
BY LOWER NICKEL, COPPER, AND COAL FORECASTED PRICES
5/27/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME TWELVE OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015
SHOWS MORE EXPANSIONS THAN SHUTDOWNS AS PRICES REBOUND
5/27/2016IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - ESTIMATED GLOBAL IRON ORE MARKET FALLS
INTO SHORTAGE
5/27/2016U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME
TOUGH INDUSTRY CLIMATE
5/25/2016TAHOE MODELSTAHOE RESOURCES FINANCIAL MODELS UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER
TAX AND ROYALTY RATES, LOWER 2017-2019 SILVER PRICES, AND LONGER
PERUVIAN AND CANADIAN ASSET MINE LIVES
5/25/2016TAHOE RESOURCES TIMMONS VISIT & PHOTOS TAHOE RESOURCES VISIT TO LAKE SHORE GOLD IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO
MAY 5TH AND TORONTO CORPORATE PRESENTATION MAY 4TH
5/25/2016GG TIMMONSGOLDCORP IMPLICATIONS IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO AFTER TAHOE
RESOURCES COMPLETED ACQUISITION OF LAKE SHORE GOLD
5/19/2016GOLD MINE OUTPUTGOLD INDUSTRY - - GLOBAL GOLD MINE OUPUT UP 4.8% IN FIRSTQUARTER
TRENDING TOWARDS NEW GLOBAL OUTPUT RECORD
5/18/2016NUCORNUCOR EARNING LESS THAN EXPECTED IN 8TH YEAR OF U.S. EXPANSION
5/18/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ASSOCIATED WITH WESDOME PUT UP FOR SALE;
MARCH QUARTER RESULTS EXCELLENT SUGGESTING UPSIDES
5/18/2016GOLD STOCKSGOLD STOCKS SORTED FROM LEAST TO MOST EXPENSIVE BASED ON
PRICE-TO-NPV; TESTED UNDER $1,750 GOLD PRICES
5/13/2016OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES ENJOYS PROGRESS AT ODYSSEY, OBAN AND
FALCO RESOURCES
5/12/2016FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS - - LUMBER AND ORIENTED STRAND BOARD PRICES
SURGE; REGIONAL OSB PRICE DISCOUNTS FALL ALMOST TO NIL
5/11/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER SALE OF CELLULOSE PULP SALE TRIGGERS TAXES DUE;
HIGHER WOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT VALUES PER RISING WOOD PRICES
5/9/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. SALE OF DRC CONGO ASSETS CUTS DEBT AND
ALSO EARNINGS
5/7/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM LOWER CU PRICE ESTIMATES OFFSET BY LOWER
OPERATING COSTS; SALE OF KEVITSA & $2.5 B NONRECOURSE LOAN
PERMIT US TO EXCLUDE ADDITIONAL 20% SALE OF COBRE PANAMA
5/3/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SCRAP FLOWS HIGHER THAN DECEMBER QUARTER
5/2/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER ACQUIRES WY’S PULP BUSINESS FOR $2.2 BIL.
4/29/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME ELEVEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
CHINA RESTARTS STEEL & ALUMINUM OUTPUTS IN MARCH
4/29/2016METALS RISK-OFFMETALS - - IMPORTANCE OF MUCH STRONGER BALANCE SHEETS
4/29/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER OPERATING MARGINS TRIMMED IN PAPER AND
CONSUMER PACKAGING SEGMENT. ASIA CORRUGATED PACKAGING
SEGMENT TO BE SOLD IN Q2 2016
4/29/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: COPPER & OIL PRICE ESTIMATES LOWERED;
LOWER OIL COST ESTIMATES AND 2016 & 2017 CAP EX ESTIMATES
4/22/2016NEWMONTNEWMONT OPERATING COSTS AND SG&A LOWERED
4/22/2016METALS SCRAP METALS INDUSTRY - - MARCH QUARTER SCRAP FLOWS DID NOT RISE, BUT
JUNE AND SEPTEMBER SHOULD RISE
4/22/2016METALS CHINA MARCH OUTPUTMETALS - - CHINA UPSURGE IN REPORTED ALUMINUM AND STEEL OUTPUT
4/22/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC SALE OF 40% OF AG BUSINESSES CUTS DEBT MORE;
EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW LOWERED FROM LOWER METALS PRICES
4/20/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL OUTPUT IN CHINA RISES 12 MMT TO A RECORD; HIGHER PRICES
TOUGH TO SUSTAIN WITH SOFT DEMAND AND LOW OPERATING RATES
4/20/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM OUTPUT IN CHINA RISES SHARPLY IN MARCH AFTER POSSIBLE
RESTRAINT IN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
4/18/2016BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: LOWER EARNINGS AND PRICE ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET
BY LOWER COSTS; DIVIDENDS AND CAP EX CUTS HELP CASH FLOW
4/15/2016METALS PRICESMETALS - - COMMODITIES PRICE REVISIONS FOR MARCH 31ST EARNINGS
RUSH AND REVISIONS
4/15/2016METALS IMPAIRMENTSMETALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - 2015 IMPAIRMENTS
EXCEED $123 BIL. IN WORST YEAR OR $0.5 TRILLION SINCE 2008
4/14/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON MODEL UPDATED FOR LOWER 2016-2019 SILVER PRICES,
38.105 MILLION NEW SHARES, AND OTHER PORTFOLIO UPDATES
4/14/2016ALCOAALCOA EARNS LESS IN FIRTH RIXON, FORGED WHEELS, CONSTRUCTION
AND WE TRIM ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS
4/13/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS ENJOYS CONSISTENT VOLUMES, COST REDUCTIONS
AND DEBT REDUCTIONS
4/11/2016OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES MODEL UPDATED FOR SHORTER ELEONORE
MINE LIFE, 11.431 MM NEW SHARES, AND THE ISLAND GOLD ROYALTY
4/11/2016WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - WOR SURVIVES STEEL PRICE PLUNGE;
SHARE BUYBACKS TO MODERATE; PRICE TARGET RAISED
4/8/2016GOLDGOLD - - “SHORT SQUEEZE” BEHIND US AND GLD ETF BUYING SLOWS;
JUNE MID-YEAR SEASONAL SLOW PERIOD VERSUS CRISIS “EVENT RISKS”
4/8/2016METALS CAUCASUSMETALS - - “NAGORNO-KARABAKH” BLACK SWAN POSSIBLE EVENT RISKS
4/4/2016CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MID CAPSCONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MARCH 31ST “MID-CAP” TRACK
4/1/2016CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS LARGE CAPSCONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MARCH 31ST “LARGE CAP” TRACK
3/30/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - NO CHINESE ALUMINUM OR ALUMINA DATA; GLOBAL
NONFERROUS APPARENT DEMAND STRONG WHILE USA WEAK
3/30/2016PACKAGING CORPORATIONPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: LOWER PACKAGING SEGMENT
PRICE REALIZATIONS HURT PRICE TARGET
3/30/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK LOWER CORRUGATED PACKAGING SEGMENT OPERATING
PROFITS WITH LOWER VOLUMES AND PRICES
3/29/2016CONF. REMARKS BY JOHNPRESENTATION TO OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE MARCH 31, 2016
HIGHLIGHTS PARTICULAR STOCKS WITH LOWER RISK PROFILES
3/29/2016BIG SIX NETDEBTMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2015, 2016 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore, and Teck)
3/29/2016CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY PRICING PRESSURES SQUEEZE MARGINS
3/25/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME TEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
INCLUDES 21 OPENINGS OF NEW PLANTS AMONG 27 SHUTDOWNS
3/24/2016ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN: LOWER PRICES DRIVE NEGATIVE ESTIMATED 2016
CASH FLOW DESPITE OUPTUT CUTS, ASSET SALES, AND NO DIVIDEND
3/23/2016DIVIDENDSMETALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - ALTERNATIVES IN SEARCH OF YIELD
3/23/2016METALS RATINGS CUTSMETALS - - SIX STOCKS DOWNGRADED FROM OVERWEIGHT CUTTING OUR
“BUY RATINGS” TO 13 FROM 19
3/22/2016FORTESCUEFORTESCUE METALS JV WITH VALE IMPACTS LIKELY AFTER 2018; SPOT
IRON ORE 20% AHEAD OF OUR FORECAST FOR 2016
3/20/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD VISITS TO MACASSA, TAYLOR & HOLT MINES
FINDS “LESS IS MORE” STRATEGY AT MACASSA SUPPLEMENTED WITH
“BOLT-ON” ACQUISITIONS
3/20/2016KIRKLAND LAKE BIG PICTURE STRATEGYKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD VISITS TO MACASSA, TAYLOR & HOLT MINES
FINDS “LESS IS MORE” STRATEGY AT MACASSA SUPPLEMENTED WITH
“BOLT-ON” ACQUISITIONS
3/16/2016METALS & TRUMP POLICIESMETALS - - TRUMP REINDUSTRIALIZATION POLICIES MORE LIKELY
3/16/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC CONTINUES TO TARGET FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION
DESPITE WEAKENED METALS PRICES
3/15/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI NETANGLOGOLD ASHANTI NET DEBT CUT BY APPROXIMATELY 30% IN 2015;
WEAKER RAND AND A$ LOWER OPERATING COSTS
3/8/2016METALS TORONTO PDACMETALS - - HIGHLIGHTS OF TORONTO PROSPECTS AND DEVELOPERS ASSN.
CONVENTION
3/8/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS CUTS COSTS TO OFFSET LOW PRICES; RAISED
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX & DEBT
3/6/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA CUT MORE ALUMINUM & STEEL OUTPUTS;
SCRAP SUPPLIES FALL; NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ENCOURAGE METALS
3/4/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO: MAKES LONG-TERM PLANS AT 2015 ACTUAL METALS PRICES
OR REBOUNDS OF UP TO 25% FROM TROUGH LOW SPOT PRICES
3/4/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD AUTHORIZES FOUR PROJECTS TO LIMIT GOLD OUTPUT
DECLINE TO 4.5 MM OZ BY 2020: DEBT CUTS MADE DESPITE LOW PRICES
3/1/2016GOLD RESERVESGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESERVES FALL 8.8% IN 2015 AND 8.2% IN 2014 AFTER
13% DROP IN 2013 OR CUMULATIVELY 27.2%
2/26/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM CUTS PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
TARGETS
2/25/2016GOLDGOLD - - GLD ETF BUYING CONTINUES STRONG LIKE 2005-10; CENTRAL
BANKS, BULLION ETFs, PRIVATE INVESTORS SWAMP GOLD MARKETS
2/23/2016FRANCO-NEVADAFRANCO-NEVADA PRICE TARGET RAISED $1 DUE TO THE $500 MM
ANTAPACCAY GOLD AND SILVER STREAM AND $920 MM EQUITY RAISE
2/23/2016SOUTHERN COPPERSOUTHERN COPPER CORP. MANAGING LOW PRICES WITH LESS DAMAGE
THAN SOME OTHERS
2/23/2016METALS SISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME NINE OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
INCLUDES 8 OPENINGS OF NEW PLANTS AMONG 32 SHUTDOWNS
2/23/2016TRUMP FOR METALSMETALS - - TRUMP REINDUSTRIALIZATION POLICY ALTERNATIVES IN USA
2/18/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES BUYS LAKE SHORE GOLD TO ESTABLISH A BEACH
HEAD IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO GOLD DISTRICT DIVERSIFYING GEOGRAPHY
2/16/2016IRON ORE SAMARCOIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - SAMARCO RESTART EARLIER THAN JANUARY 2018
AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED; BRAZIL MAY WITHDRAW 20 BIL REAIS FINE
2/15/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA CUTTING ALUMINUM & STEEL OUTPUTS IN
RECOGNITION OF FALLING DEMAND; WEAK $ AND FALLING SUPPLIES
2/15/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: SALE OF 13% OF MORENCI AMONG “WORST
CASE OUTCOMES”
2/14/2016METALS RUSSIAMETALS - - RUSSIAN PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES MUCH HEALTHIER
THAN STEEL, ALUMINUM OR NICKEL PEERS IN THE AMERICAS
2/12/2016ALCOAALCOA PREDICTS $0.5 BILLION 2016 EBITDA GAIN FROM ENGINEERED
PRODUCTS AS IT IDLES MOST OF REMAINING U.S. SMELTING
2/12/2016GOLDGOLD - - STRONG CENTRAL BANK DEMAND, BOOM IN BULLION ETF BUYS
AND NEW PRIVATE/RETAIL INVESTORS MASSACRE THE SHORT SELLERS
2/9/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER “DOUBLE FALSE EXPECTATIONS” AS SHARES
ANTICIPATE A COLLAPSE
2/7/2016GOLDGOLD - - U.S. $, BASE METALS AND GOLD EACH REVERSE TREND AND
EACH DIVORCE FROM CRUDE OIL, INFLATION OR CHINA DEMISE
2/5/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS CUTS COSTS TO OFFSET LOW PRICES; RAISED
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX & DEBT
2/3/2016NORBORD SCOTLAND PROJECTNORBORD’S $135 MM INVERNESS, SCOTLAND OSB EXPANSION TO ADD 325
MM SQ FT OF OSB CAPACITY OR $0.5 BIL. SALES AFTER MID-2017
2/1/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME EIGHT OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015
1/29/2016METALS SUBSTITUTIONMETALS - - MATERIALS SUBSTITUTIONS AS PRICES OR VOLUMES CHANGE
1/29/2016SOUTH 32SOUTH 32: LOWER METALS PRICE AND NEAR TERM OUPUT ESTIMATES CUT
NEAR TERM EARNINGS AS CASH BALANCES FALL TO CUT NPV MODEL
1/27/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY- -GG, AEM, KGLIF, NGD, DRGDF SENSITIVITY TO C$ @$0.50
1/25/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINA CUTS OUTPUT MORE; U.S. DEMAND DATA
FALLS MORE; SCRAP STEEL PRICES AND U.S. OPERATING RATES RISE
1/23/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY SURPLUS FALLS AS CHINA’S OUTPUT PLUNGES
1/22/2016ALUMINA LTDALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES AND ALUMINA
REFINERY CURTAILMENTS PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
1/22/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: PREVIEW OF JANUARY 22ND CONFERENCE CALL
AND JANUARY 15TH CUTS TO 2016 COMMODITY PRICE ESTIMATES
1/21/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES EVALUATED IN CONTEXT OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE
ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES OF OUR CHOOSING
1/18/2016METALS PRICE REVISIONSMETALS PRICE REDUCTIONS FOR 2016 FORECASTS
1/16/2016COPPER PRICE REVISIONSCOPPER COVERAGE UNIVERSE EARNINGS REVISIONS TO LOWER 2015 and
2016 COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES
1/15/2016ATI LABORALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES FLAT-ROLLED LABOR RECONCILIATION AND
SETTLEMENT ALTERNATIVES
1/14/2016ATI FLAT-ROLLED STRATEGYALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES FLAT-ROLLED DIVISIONAL STRATEGIES TO
FIND MORE TONS AND REVENUES TO THRIVE AND SURVIVE
1/14/2016ATI MODELSALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES REVENUES, VOLUMES AND EARNINGS FALL
1/11/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD SUFFERS AS RUBICON’S PHOENIX PROJECT GOLD
RESOURCES CUT TO 0.41 MM FROM 3.35 MM OZ
1/11/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - TENTATIVE U.S. STEEL LABOR CONTRACT “A DRAW”
1/8/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER SUM OF PARTS VALUATION FOR WY $3.86 B HIGHER
THAN THE MIDPOINT OF “FAIRNESS OPINION” BY MORGAN STANLEY
1/8/2016VALEVALE: LOWER COSTS AND DEBT AVOIDANCE IN 2016 KEY TO “INVESTOR
DAY” MESSAGE; LOWER METALS PRICE ESTIMATES INCORPORATED
1/7/2016TECKTECK: CANADIAN SPOT CRUDE OIL PRICE BENCHMARKS AT US $1-$14/BBL
OR US $20-$30 DISCOUNTS TO WTI IMPACTING OIL SANDS VALUES
12/30/2015 METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY TIGHTENING AS MORE SHUTDOWNS EVOLVE
12/30/2015 SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - LATE-DECEMBER PRICE RISES AS CU, PB, ZN, STEEL INVENTORIES LEAN BUT DECEMBER SEES AL, NI, PB INVENTORY RISE
12/30/15NorbordNORBORD-AINSWORTH DEAL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
NPV/SHARE AT OUR BASE CASE OSB PRICING ESTIMATES
12/29/2015 METALS 2016 OUTLOOKMETALS: 2016 STRATEGY TOWARDS “OUT-ON-A-LIMB” OR “OUT-OF-THEMONEY” STOCKS OR BASE METALS
12/23/2015BHP BILLITON OVERVIEWBHP BILLITON LIKELY LOWER CAP EX AS LOW PRICES STRAIN SINGLE A
BOND RATING AND “PROGRESSIVE DIVIDEND”
12/23/2015BHP BILLITON COPPERBHP BILLITON LONG-TERM OUTLOOK OF COPPER DIVISION
12/21/2015SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT DUE TO LOWER OUTPUT
ESTIMATES FOR CERTAIN PROPERTIES AND LOWER GOLD PRICES
12/21/2015STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - UNION LABOR RELIEF DEALT A SETBACK; MORE
LOUSY DEMAND DATA
12/15/2015NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING EMPHASIZES NEW PRIORITIES IN EXPLORATION AND
“BOLT-ON” SMALL PROJECTS APPENDAGES TO EXISTING BIG MINES
12/14/2015METALS INDUSTRYMETALS INDUSTRY - - NO NONFERROUS METALS SEASONAL SECONDHALF
SLOWDOWN NOR INVENTORY GLUTS LIKE WORLD COLLAPSE
12/14/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY TIGHTENING AS MORE SHUTDOWNS EVOLVE
12/14/2015ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD SENSITIVITY TO POSSIBLE ZERO VALUE FROM MT MILLIGAN
AND RUBICON’S PHOENIX PROJECT
12/14/2015THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS FACES 2017-18 DEBT MATURITIES AND
POTENTIAL CASH FLOW SHORTFALL
12/8/2015FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS LOWERS COSTS OFFSET BY LOWER PRICES; CUT
EARNINGS ESTIMATES BUT HOLD SAME PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX
12/2/2015IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY APPROACHING BALANCE IN SIMULATION OF WORLD
STEEL INDUSTRY 5% 2015-16 DROP FOLLOWED BY 2% GROWTH
12/1/2015SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON: ANTAMINA SILVER STREAM WITH GLENCORE BUILD
INTO MODEL AND POST- 2020 HUDBAY’S 777 MINE DELETED; SENSTIVITY
TO SPOT SILVER AND GOLD PRICES.
12/1/2015RIO TINTORIO TINTO: SIMULATED AT “SPOT” AS WELL AS FORECASTED PRICE
REBOUNDS; IRON ORE AND COPPER MARKETS CLOSELY BALANCED
12/1/2015SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA LOST 1-2% WORLD AL & STEEL MARKET SHARES;
MOST INVENTORIES DECLINE; SPRING 2016 SUPPLIES IN U.S. DOUBTFUL
11/30/2015GOLDCORPGOLDCORP LARGER DEPRECIATION, LOWER RED LAKE OUTPUT AND
BORDEN OUTPUT DELIVERED TO PORCUPINE MILL IN UPDATED MODELS
11/24/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD ACHIEVES DEBT REDUCTION GOALS DESPITE ADVERSE
PRICE CLIMATE; TOUGH 2016-2017 PRICE OUTLOOK
11/24/2015CAMECOCAMECO: SOLAR, SUN, RENEWABLES ENERGY CHALLENGES URANIUM,
COAL, OIL & GAS AS CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS SO INFLUENTIAL
11/23/2015GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - “BLACK SWAN” EU EVENTS GROW LIKELIER AFTER
NOVEMBER 13TH PARIS TRAGEDIES; “EUROSKEPTICS” GAIN CLOUT AND WE
EXPECT NEW CALLS FOR EXITS FROM EUROZONE
11/23/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY SHORTAGES PLAUSIBLE IN 2016 IF DEMAND RISES, A
HARSH WINTER DISRUPTS SUPPLY OR WITH UNEXPECTED MISHAPS
11/23/2015TECKTECK: EARNINGS BENEFIT FROM LOWER LOWER EXCHANGE RATES AND
COST CUT INITIATIVES; SALE OR “GIVEAWAY” OF OIL SANDS ANALYZED
11/19/2015KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD TO ACQUIRE ST ANDREW GOLDFIELDS; OCTOBER
QUARTER MINE OUTPUT FALLS SHORT
11/16/2015GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - OUTLOOK FOR 2016 IMPROVES AS JEWELRY UPTICKS
IN 3Q 2015 AND MINE OUTPUT TURNS DOWN IN 2015 SECOND-HALF
11/13/2015SOUTH 32SOUTH 32: LOWER METALS PRICE AND NEAR TERM OUPUT ESTIMATES CUT
NEAR TERM EARNINGS WHILE HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE CUTS NPV MODEL
11/13/2015STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - APPARENT DEMAND DOWN 8% OR 9.6 M.T. IN 2015
11/12/2015LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC SENSTIVITY OF EARNINGS AND NPV AT HIGHER 2016-
2018 OSB PRICE REALIZATIONS
11/10/2015PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER - - ACCEPTS 13.8% PREMIUM BID FROM WY
11/10/2015WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER TO ACQUIRE PLUM CREEK AND STUDIES PULP EXIT
11/6/2015NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING FINANCIAL MODELS STRONGER WITH TANAMI
PROJECT, SURINAME NEARER COMPLETION, LOWER COSTS, OTHER GAINS
11/6/2015ALCOAALCOA PREDICTS $0.5 BILLION 2016 EBITDA GAIN FROM ENGINEERED
PRODUCTS WHILE IT IDLES MOST OF REMAINING U.S. SMELTING
11/6/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - INVENTORIES DROP NICE AND FAST AS (1) DEMAND
IMPROVES, (2) 1.11 MMT MINE OUPTUT CUTS ANNOUNCED AND (3) SCRAP
SUPPLIES PROBABLY DECREASING
11/5/2015ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER NEAR TERM PRICES TRIM ESTIMATES;
INCLUDED CENTINELA SECOND CONCENTRATOR ACCRETIVE TO EPS
11/3/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - MINE SHUTDOWNS DRIVE ACCELERATED INVENTORY
DECLINES IN OCTOBER; SHORTAGES POSSIBLE IN 2016 FIRST-HALF
10/30/2015NORBORDNORBORD SENSITIVITY TO SHARE BUYBACK AND OSB PRICE RISES
10/29/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY SHORTAGES PLAUSIBLE IN 2016 IF DEMAND RISES, A
HARSH WINTER DISRUPTS SUPPLY OR WITH UNEXPECTED MISHAPS
10/29/2015WESTROCKWESTROCK PRODUCTION CURTAILMENTS CUTS HURT FOURTH-QUARTER
COSTS EARNINGS ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY
10/28/2015METALS QUADRUPLEMETALS OFFER “QUADRUPLE WIN” AS TAX SELLING TRADES, SPRING
SEASONAL, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OUTPUT CUTS COINCIDE
10/28/2015NUCORNUCOR SHOULD EARN MORE IN 2016 IN ALL THREE SEGMENTS
10/27/2015ALCOAALCOA UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM UNDERWEIGHT ON THE BASIS
OF LOWER UNIT COSTS, SEPT. 28TH BREAKUPS AND POSSIBLE FOLLOW-ONS
10/26/2015VALE SUDBURYVALE: LOWER ESTIMATED IRON ORE COSTS AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
GENERATE HIGHER LONG TERM EARNINGS ESTIMATES
10/23/2015PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA:PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: HIGHER OPERATING COSTS IN
BOTH PACKAGING AND PAPER SEGMENTS BASED ON Q4 2015 OUTLOOK
10/15/2015KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD FINANCIAL MODELS INCORPORATE C$400 MM FOR
A SHAFT BUILT IN 2019 AND 2020 AND LOWER GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
10/15/2015LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING EXTENDS HIGH GRADE RESOURCES AT CANDALARIA &
EAGLE; VISIT TO CANDALARIA SEPTEMBER 21-22ND; CASH FLOWS SOLID
10/12/2015HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS FINANCIAL MODEL HURDLES INCLUDE UNUSUAL
WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS, ACQUISITIONS, ROSEMONT AND CAP EX
10/10/2015SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON: ASSUMED HEADQUARTERS MOVE IN EARLY 2018
SOLVES FUTUTRE TAX ISSUES; GOLD AND SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES CUT
10/10/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. CHANGES TO PRICE TARGET IF A 100% SPLIT
DEMERGER STRUCTURE IS MOST SHAREHOLDER FRIENDLY
10/9/2015FRANCO-NEVADAFRANCO-NEVADA INVESTS $610 MM FOR A SILVER STREAM ON TECK’S
22.5% PORTION OF ANTAMINA.
10/9/2015METALS DISTRESS ZINC & STEEL CLOSURES METALS - - ZINC UP 11% AND LEAD UP 6% ON OCT. 9TH AFTER GLENCORE
CUTS ZINC OUTPUT 0.5 MMT OR 3.7% IN 13.6 MMT MARKETS
10/6/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. ORGANIZES TWO SEPARATE BOARDS AND
STUDIES 100% DEMERGER, WHICH IMPROVES TAKEOVER APPEALS
10/6/2015FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM: PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $14 DUE TO ESTIMATED
LOWER DILUTION, DISCOUNT RATE, CAP EX, OP EX AND EXTERNAL FUNDS
10/4/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AS ALUMINUM GETS WORSE
10/4/2015TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES SHARES ANTICIPATE “BAD SURPRISES” THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN; LOWER SILVER PRICES AND HIGHER SUSTAINING CAPEX
9/30/15First QuantumFIRST QUANTUM: COVERAGE INITIATED WITH AN OVERWEIGHT RATING;
LONG TERM CASH GENERATIONS OUTWEIGH GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
9/28/2015AEM EL BARQUENOAGNICO EAGLE MINES EL BARQUENO PROJECT TOUR IN MEXICO NOTES
AND PICTURES
9/28/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TO SELL 2ND $1 BILLION IN COMMON STOCK;
STILL SEEKS OIL AND GAS JV OR IPO; COMMODITY PRICES STILL LOW
9/25/2015ALCOAALCOA: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS
ESTIMATES; LOWER ESTIMATED REFINED ALUMINA WITH SURALCO GONE
9/22/2015NGEx RESOURCESNGEx RESOURCES HAS 21 BIL LBS CU & 15.6 MM OZ OF GOLD FOR SALE
9/21/2015AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES CANADIAN MALARCTIC AND GOLDEX TOURS SEPT.
7TH ; GOLDEX “OWN ORE” EXTENSIONS TO 2025-30 MAY DELAY SATELLITE
OPPORTUNITIES AMONG VAL D’OR JUNIORS
9/17/2015GOLDCORP ELEONOREGOLDCORP MODELS UPDATED FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES, “CORRIDOR” AUCU-
MO JV AND SEPTEMBER 8TH VISIT TO ELEONORE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC
9/16/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AND CUT COSTS
9/16/2015GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC RAISES EQUITY CAPITAL, TO SELL ASSETS, CUTS COSTS,
CUTS CAP EX, OMITS DIVIDENDS AND TARGETS MUCH LOWER DEBT
9/14/2015METALS PRICESMETALS - - THIRD PRICE FORECAST REDUCTIONS IN 2015
9/11/2015NORBORDNORBORD UPGRADED AS SHARE PRICE FALLS; NO COMPETITION FROM,
SALES TO OR DIRECT EXPOSURE TO CHINA
9/11/2015METALS HISTORICAL VOLATILITYMETALS: PLATINUM, PALLADIUM, NI AND MO HAVE HIGHEST VOLATILITY;
AL & NI VOLATILITIES ROSE DURING 1988-2002 DISINFLATION ERA AFTER
CRUDE OIL PLUNGED IN 1986 WHILE CU & MO WERE THE SAME
9/7/2015METALS INDUSTRIESMETALS INDUSTRIES - - EVIDENCE OF INVENTORY BUILDING IN
ALUMINUM, NICKEL, ZINC AND OCC SCRAP CARDBOARD
9/7/2015CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EPS
ESTIMATES; LOWER NEAR TERM OPERATING COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
9/7/2015ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - CHINESE OUTPUT UP 18.3% OR 5 MMT ANNUAL
RATE IN FACE OF DECLINING CHINESE DEMAND SWAMPS MARKETS
CAUSING US TO CUT OUR PRICE FORECASTS AND EPS
9/1/2015AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES MEADOWBANK AND AMARUQ TOUR AUGUST 20TH;
MINE LIFE GAINS AT AMARUQ OFFSET BY THE REMOVAL OF UPPER
BEAVER AND 2017 ONWARD PRODUCTION FROM LAPA
8/31/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - WE UPGRADE 9 STOCKS TO OVERWEIGHT AT LOW
PRICES INCLUDING 4 FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES LESS VULNERABLE
TO CHINA, 4 COPPER-RELATED STOCKS AND U.S. STEEL
8/28/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AND CUT COSTS
8/28/2015RIO TINTORIO TINTO: LOWER METALS PRICES HURT EARNINGS BUT ARE PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
8/28/2015INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER UPGRADED DUE TO SHARE PRICE FALLING
8/27/2015WEYERHAEUSER WYWEYERHAEUSER WY $28.00 rated Overweight up from Neutral with $36 price target
maintained
8/27/2015FCXFCX CHANGES MAY OCCUR MORE QUICKLY AS CARL ICAHN CONTROLS
8.46%; A COMPLETE SHARE-FOR-SHARE DEMERGER BETTER FOR FMOG
8/26/2015GALWAY GOLDGALWAY GOLD: PERMITTING CONTINUES AND NEIGHBORING WEAKER
DEPOSIT SUBJECT TO TWO BIDDERS
8/26/2015HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS LOWER CU, ZN, AU, AG, MO PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER
EARNINGS, BUT THE SHARE PRICE FELL EVEN MORE
8/25/2015ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER GOLD AND MOLYBDENUM PRICE ESTIMATES;
INCLUSION OF ZALDIVAR INTO MODELS ACCRETIVE
8/24/2015U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME
TOUGH INDUSTRY CLIMATE
8/24/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD MAKES A CONVENTIONAL CEO ROLE; MODELS REBUILT
FOR ZALDIVAR, ROYAL GOLD, 6 U.S. DEPOSIT SALES AND LOWER COSTS
8/17/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS MARKETS CLOSURES NOT PROLIFIC IN AUGUST FIRST HALF,
WHERE CHINA DEVALUES 4% TO EXPORT AND INCREASE OUPTUT
8/17/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS OF VARIATION IN CHILEAN COPPER MINE
AVERAGE DAILY OUTPUT FROM JANUARY 2000 THROUGH MAY 2015
8/13/2015WESTROCKWESTROCK EARNINGS INCREASED DUE TO HIGHER 2016 ONWARDS
ESTIMATED PRICES IN CORRUGATED PACKAGING AND CONSUMER
PACKAGING SEGMENTS; CAP EX HIGHER
8/12/2015FCX TAXFCX TAX CONSOLIDATION, LARGE OIL & GAS NOL AND WHETHER A
COMPLETE SHARE-FOR-SHARE DEMERGER BETTER FOR FMOG
8/12/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. PREVENTS $3.3 BILLION IN DEBT BUILDUP
IGNORING ANY MORE ASSET SALES OR POSSIBLE FMOG IPO
8/11/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES IMPLICATIONS OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
$37 BILLION BID FOR PRECISION CASTPARTS
8/6/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SPOT PRICES AND SHARE PRICES AT OR BELOW 2009
DISTRESS OR RECESSION LEVELS; MORE SHUTDOWNS
8/5/2015FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. RATING RESTORED TO OVERWEIGHT
SUPPLEMENTAL DISCUSSION; A MOLY MINE MANAGER FOR FMOG CEO
8/4/2015FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. RATING RESTORED TO OVERWEIGHT MODELED
“NO ASSET SALES;” TARGET & ESTIMATES SHAVED ON PRICES; FMOG OF
DECLINING SIGNIFICANCE
8/3/2015WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - ARMSTRONG WORLD REPORTS ANOTHER
QUARTERLY DECLINE IN EQUITY INCOME FROM WAVE CEILINGS
8/3/2015TECKTECK TO BENEFIT FROM 3.3 MMT IDLING BY PEABODY IN AUSTRALIA,
ALPHA REORGANIZATION AND OTHER CHANGES BENEFIT MET COAL
8/3/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - SURVEY OF 14 PUBLIC MINERS SHOWS FIRST-HALF
COSTS ABOUT UNCHANGED AND FIRST-HALF MINE OUTPUT UP 1.8%
7/31/2015METALSMETALS MARKETS SEE SOME OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCES, NEW CAP EX
PROGRAMS, “EVALUATIONS” OF CUTS AND NOT SO MANY CUTS
7/31/2015IRON OREIRON ORE PRICES EXCEED EXPECTATIONS FOR VALE, KUMBA, BHP,
FORTESCUE & CLF AUSTRALIA, WHILE CLF IN USA DISAPPOINTS
7/28/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD BLACK-SCHOLES ANALYSIS AS AN ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBLY OVERLY GENEROUS VALUATION METHOD AT $9.74/SHARE
7/27/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INSIDERS BUY ALMOST $1 MM IN COMMON
STOCK SINCE JULY 21ST EARINGS REPORT
7/27/2015METALSMETALS MARKETS SEE TWO LARGE SCALE OUTPUT CUTS LAST WEEK
7/25/2015RGLD WITHOUT PASCUA WITH B.C. RISK DISCUSSIONROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $78.07 rated Neutral from Overweight with $67 down from $75
price target) PASCUA-LAMA REMOVED FROM LONG-TERM SIMULATION AND
JUNE 26TH COURT DECISION CONCERNS MT. MILLIGAN
7/24/2015PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: HIGHER CAPEX ESTIMATES
HURT NPV; LOWER COSTS RAISE EPS ESTIMATES
7/24/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES NEW UPSIDES IN FORGINGS SALES & UNION
BENEFITS CHANGES MORE THAN OFFSET NAGGING NEAR TERM ITEMS
7/20/2015METALS PRICESMETALS PRICES TRADE BELOW 2008-09 LOWS FOR IRON ORE, MET COAL,
HOT-ROLLED SHEET, AND MOLY; PT AND AG NEAR 2008-09 LOWS AND
NONFERROUS BASE METALS CLOSE TO 2009 ANNUAL AVERAGES
7/17/2015TECK RESOURCESTECK EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT WITH LOWER ESTIMATED ZN, MO & AU
PRICES; UPDATED ANDACOLLO GOLD SALE BUILT INTO MODELS
7/17/2015ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD BUYS REMAINDER OF ANDACOLLO GOLD OUTPUT; LOCAL
ENVIRONMENTAL OJBECTIONS REVIEWED; LOWER GOLD PRICES
7/17/2015GOLD PRICEGOLD PRICE ESTIMATES LOWERED, PROMTING INVESTMENT
DOWNGRADES AT AEM, NEM, GG AND AU
7/16/2015DOMTAR CORPORATIONDOMTAR CORPORATION: ASHDOWN MILL CONVERSION TO FLUFF PULP
OUTPUT AND LOWER COSTS BASED ON Q1 2015 RESULTS
7/10/15Southern CopperSOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION: COVERAGE INITIATED WITH AN
OVERWEIGHT RATING DUE TO LONG TERM EARNINGS POTENTIAL AT
$3.50/LB ESTIMATED LONG TERM COPPER PRICES
7/8/15Worthington IndustriesWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - WOR SURVIVES STEEL PRICE PLUNGE;
SHARE BUYBACKS TO MODERATE; PRICE TARGET & ESTIMATES CUT
7/6/15South 32 SOUTH 32: LOWER MET COAL, AL and NI PRICES CLIP EARNINGS SLIGHTLY;
ALTERNATIVE “FLAT SPOT PRICE” SCENARIO ANALYZED
7/5/15Containerboard IndustryCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY: FIRST QUARTER 2015 REALIZATIONS DOWN
$35/TON FROM THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2014
7/5/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK “NO” VOTE AFTERMATH
7/5/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - CHANGES IN OFFICIAL RESERVES DOCUMENT 1.5%
QUARTERLY SHIFT TO U.S. DOLLAR; GOLD GAINS 0.0133% PER MONTH
7/2/15ArcelorMittalSTEEL INDUSTRY: VISIT TO THE MONT WRIGHT IRON ORE MINE, PORT
CARTIER, PELLET PLANT AND ARCELORMITTAL STEEL PRESENTATIONS
6/28/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - DECLINES IN YTD APPARENT DEMANDS FOR STEEL, CU,
NI, PB, ZN, AU “FEEL LIKE A RECESSION”
6/27/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK NEGOTIATIONS WITH IMF, ECB, GERMANY, ETC.
6/26/15Agnico Eagle MinesAGNICO EAGLE MINES: MELIADINE PROJECT REMOVED AS AGNICO EAGLE
MAY FOCUS ON HEAP LEACH AND ADD ON PROJECTS
6/26/15Teck ResourcesTECK EARNINGS ESTIMATES REDUCED AS A RESULT OF LOWER
ESTIMATED COPPER, COAL, ZINC, LEAD, and GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
6/23/15South32SOUTH 32: COVERAGE INITIATED
6/19/15Osisko Gold RoyaltiesOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES PRICE TARGET CUT WITH ELEONORE ORE
GRADES; OSISKO TO ADVANCE AND DEVELOP ITS OWN ASSETS TOO
6/18/15Barrick GoldBARRICK GOLD FAVORABLE INDICATIONS OF BIDDING WAR FOR
ZALDIVAR COPPER MINE SALE; ALTURAS DISCOVERY DISCUSSION
6/17/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - SCRAP PRICES, IRON ORE PRICES, INVENTORIES AND
LOWER IMPORTS SIGNAL UPTURN; CHINESE EXPORTS, STRONG DOLLAR,
MET COAL AND SOME PRICES LAG UNFAVORABLY
6/16/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - QUARTERLY PRICES AVERAGE < $1,200
6/15/15AntofagastaANTOFAGASTA PLC PROFILE FOR CORPORATE GROWTH; SALE OF WATER
UTILITY SUGGESTS LARGER 2015 SPECIAL DIVIDEND
6/15/15Allegheny TechnologiesALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES JUNE 30TH LABOR CONTRACT EXPIRATION
HAS MUCH ACRIMONY AS COMPANY FACES NONUNION COMPETITORS
6/11/15BHP BillitonBHP BILLITON: DEMERGER OF SOUTH 32 FULLY INCORPORATED INTO OUR
MODELS UPDATING DE-MERGER ESTIMATES MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2014
6/10/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING ACQUIRES CRIPPLE CREEK, CO MINE, SEEKS
UNDERGROUND BONANZA TARGETS & ISSUES 33.35 MM COMMON SHARES
6/9/15Newmont Mining ConceptualNEWMONT MINING ACQUIRES CRIPPLE CREEK, CO MINE, SEEKS
UNDERGROUND BONANZA TARGETS & ISSUES 33.35 MM COMMON SHARES
6/8/15Polymet MiningPOLYMET MINING PERMITS LIKELY AROUND YEAR-END, WHERE TIMING
OF PROFITS PUSHED TOWARDS 2018 SECOND-HALF
6/8/15Northern DynastyNORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS SUES EPA FOR MALFEASANCE IN NOVEL
PERMIT STRATEGY; RENEWED LOOK AT PROJECT UPSIDES
6/4/15Louisiana PacificLOUISIANA PACIFIC FOCUSES ON OSB WOOD SIDING MARKET AT VISIT TO
TWIN HARBORS, MN OSB WOOD SIDING MILL 25 MI NORTH OF DULUTH
6/1/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - EVIDENCE OF MANUFACTURING RECESSION IN CHINA,
U.S. OR GLOBALLY
5/29/15Century AluminumCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER FUTURE EARNINGS
5/29/15Alumina LimitedALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS
ESTIMATES; PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
5/29/15AlcoaALCOA: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES; LOWER ESTIMATED OPERATING
COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
5/29/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - TOO MUCH CHINESE OUTPUT SWAMPS MARKETS
CAUSING US TO CUT OUR PRICE FORECASTS, EPS, TARGETS, RATINGS
5/28/15Lundin Mining Spanish News Search LUNDIN MINING SPANISH LITERATURE SEARCH CONCERNING
ENVIRONMENTAL CHARGES IN CHILE
5/28/15Lundin MiningLUNDIN MINING ENVIRONMENTAL CITATIONS IN CHILE
5/26/15Barrick GoldBARRICK GOLD : WE RAISE OUR DISCOUNT RATE TO 11% DUE TO
EVOLUTION OF “HOLDING COMPANY” FORMAT WITH LESS OPERATORSHIP
5/26/15Fortescue MetalsFORTESCUE METALS: LOWER COSTS AND CAP EX PARTLY OFFSET LOWER
PRICES; CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET
5/26/15Louisiana PacificLOUISIANA PACIFIC LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
HIGHER PROFITABILITY IN THE SIDING SEGMENT
5/18/15Lundin MiningLUNDIN MINING: LOWER Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb, Au and Ag PRICES CUT 2015 and 2016
EARNINGS ESTIMATES; LOWER OPERATING COSTS CUSHION THE BLOW
5/18/15NorbordNORBORD NEAR TERM EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT DUE TO LOWER OSB
PRICE ESTIMATES; THREE YEARS WITHOUT EARNING DIVIDEND MAY
PROMPT A 2016 DIVIDEND CUT
5/18/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION TO MATCH OUR TARGET
5/18/15Plum Creek TimberPLUM CREEK TIMBER - - FAVORABLE COMMENTS FROM CHARLESTON, SC
FIELD TRIP MAY 11-12TH
5/15/15Vale SensitivityVALE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO LOWER 2016-20 SCENARIO WITH 343 MMT
ANNUAL IRON ORE OUTPUT, $56 BENCHMARK Fe, $6.50 Ni AND $2.75 Cu
5/13/15Big Six Net DebtMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2015, 2016 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, GlencoreXstrata PLC, and Teck)
5/11/15ValeVALE: LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, NICKEL, AND COPPER PRICES CUT
5/11/15WeyerhaeuserWEYERHAEUSER COPES WITH VERY LOW SELLING PRICES
5/11/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - ANEMIC DEMAND AS CONSUMERS AND PRODUCERS
5/1/15Iron OreIRON ORE - - MAJOR PRODUCERS TREND TO 10% OUTPUT GAIN IN 2015
5/1/15Flat $1,200/oz GoldGOLD INDUSTRY - - STUDY OF NPVs AT A FLAT $1,200/OZ GOLD PRICE
5/1/15Lower Gold Price EstimatesGOLD INDUSTRY - - LOWERING SEVERAL EARNINGS ESTIMATES TO
4/30/15Barrick Gold ZaldivarBARRICK GOLD - - ZALDIVAR COPPER MINE AND WATER VALUATIONS
4/29/15Kirkland Lake GoldGOLD PRICES; EXPLORATION TO DEFINE MINE EXPANSION ALTERNATIVES
4/28/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. OIL & GAS IPO PROTECTS BOND RATING,
BALANCE SHEET AND CUTS PRICE, EXPLORATION AND EXECUTION RISKS
4/27/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 9% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUMS
4/21/15Barrick Headquarter LocationsBARRICK GOLD SENSITIVITY OF HQ LOCATIONS FOR SAVING EXECUTIVE
TIME AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO SELLING MINES
4/21/15Barrick Financial ModelsBARRICK GOLD, LOWER GOLD PRICES AND ASSUMED SALE OF ZALDIVAR
FOR $1 BILLION LOWER OUR NPV ESTIMATE
4/17/15ImpairmentsMETALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - 91 IMPAIRMENT
INCIDENTS FOR 2014 AVERAGE $756 MM EACH TO TOTAL $68.8 BILLION
4/16/15Copper DealsCOPPER INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF “PEAK” AND “RECENT” M&A
TRANSACTION VALUES
4/13/15Franco NevadaFRANCO NEVADA - - LOWER GOLD PRICES AND OIL AND GAS REVENUES
HURT EARNINGS ESTIMATES; PRICE TARGET INCREASED METHODOLOGY
DEBATED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 TIMES NPV/SHARE.
4/13/15Anglo AmericanANGLO AMERICAN: LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, PLATINUM, RHODIUM,
AND COPPER PRICES CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND VALUATION
4/7/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING HIGHER PRODUCTION, LOWER CASH COST ESTIMATES,
AND LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES OFFSET LOWER PRICES.
4/7/15Spot Markets SPOT MARKETS - - NO SPRING RECOVERIES AS CHINA HIKES OUTPUTS OF
AL, STEEL, REFINED CU, MOLY, LEAD MINES, ZINC MINES AND REFINED ZN
4/5/15Conference: Mid Cap Gold and Silver HighlightsConference: Mid Cap Gold and Silver Highlights
4/2/15Conference: Natural Resource Room Highlights HIGHLIGHTS OF THE “NATURAL RESOURCES ROOM” PRESENTATIONS AT
OUR ANNUAL MARCH 30, 2015 CONFERENCE
4/1/15Conference: Large Cap HighlightsHIGHLIGHTS OF “LARGE CAPS” AT OUR MARCH 30TH CONFERENCE
4/1/15Conference: Core Shack Highlights“CORE SHACK” GEOLOGICAL DISPLAYS AT MARCH 30, 2015 CONFERENCE
3/29/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 20% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUMS
3/29/15John Tumazos Presentation at the ConferencePRESENTATION TO OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE MARCH 30, 2015
HIGHLIGHTS FIVE PARTICULAR STOCKS
3/26/15GlencoreGLENCORE PLC LOWER METALS AND ENERGY PRICE ESTIMATES CUT
EARNINGS ESTIMATES; ESTIMATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES LOWERED
3/24/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - SPOT DYNAMICS CLOSER TO CYCLICAL LOWS, BUT
UPSIDE RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
3/24/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. MAKES 84% DIVIDEND CUT AS PRECURSOR TO
MANY MEASURES TO MAINTAIN INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT RATING
3/24/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 20% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
3/24/15AlcoaALCOA ACQUIRES TITANIUM SUPPLIER, STUDIES ASSET EXITS AND CHINA
RAISES SMELTER OUTPUT 19.9% YTD CAUSING MARKET OVERSUPPLY
3/23/15MetalsMETALS - - CHINA RAISES OUTPUT IN 2015 WITHOUT ENOUGH DEMAND
3/16/15Copper IndustryCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MINE INVESTMENT TO PLUNGE AS SEVERAL
COMPANIES BREACH COVENANTS OR SUFFER RATING DOWNGRADES
3/12/15GoldcorpGOLDCORP FORECASTS CUT DUE TO LOW PRICE ESTIMATES; IMPAIRMENT
ANALYSES ON COCHENOUR AND ELEONORE; ELEONORE ROCK BURST
3/11/15Toronto PDAC 2015METALS - -METALS PRICES UNDERMINE TORONTO GEOLOGY CONFERENCE
3/9/15Century AluminumCENTURY ALUMINUM - - ALUMINUM PRICES FALL WITH HIGH CHINESE
EXPORTS; ALCOA STUDIES SALE OR SHUTDOWN OF 0.5 MMT SMELTING;
3/6/15Silver WheatonSILVER WHEATON ADDITIONAL 25% OF SALOBO’S GOLD PRODUCTION HAS SMALL IMPACT
ON SLW’S NPV/SHARE; LOWER GOLD AND SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES
3/5/15Rio TintoRIO TINTO: WEAKER A$ LOWERS IRON ORE COSTS TO BOAST EARNINGS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES; LOWER NET DEBT EQUIVALENTS HELP
3/1/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - “SPRING RALLIES” ABSENT IN STEEL, PAPER, WOOD
WHILE BASE METALS ARE “LATE;” INVENTORY DECLINES SLOW; CHINA
SELLS STOCKPILES, EXPORTS MORE AND CANCELS EXPORT TAXES
2/27/15Fraser InstituteMETALS INDUSTRY - - FRASER INSTITUTE TAGS TWELVE LESS RISKY
NATIONS; BRAZIL SEEKS $1.5 BILLION FROM SIX PETROBRAS SUPPLIERS
2/27/15Alumina LimitedALUMINA LTD: ALUMINA BOTTLENECK LASTS JUST SIX MONTHS IN JUNENOV.
2014 DESPITE INDONESIAN BAUXITE BAN; LOWER ESTIMATED 2015
OUTPUT CUTS NEAR TERM EARNINGS; RATING AND PRICE TARGET CUT
2/27/15Gold ReservesGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESERVES FALL 7.4% IN 2014 AFTER 13% DROP IN 2013
2/26/15Fortescue Metals FORTESCUE METALS: 2015 CAPITAL EX AND C1 COST ESTIMATES CUT;
LONG TERM IRON ORE PRICE DISCOUNT TO BENCHMARK REDUCED
2/26/15Worthington IndustriesWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - FEBRUARY 24TH WARNING SUGGESTS $0.50
PER SHARE OF FY 2015 EPS RISKS; SHARE BUYBACKS MAY BE OFFSET
2/25/15GoldcorpGOLDCORP -- LOWER GRADE AND OUTPUT AND HIGHER OPERATING
COSTS AT ELEONORE; DISCOUNT RATE RAISED BY 1%.
2/25/15Osisko Gold RoyaltiesOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES PRICE TARGET CUT WITH ELEONORE ORE
GRADES; OSISKO TO ADVANCE AND DEVELOP ITS OWN ASSETS TOO
2/19/15RockTennROCKTENN EARNINGS ESTIMATES DOWN 10%-25% DUE TO A HIGH SHARE
COUNT WITH MERGER; CHEMICALS SPINOFF VALUED AT $1,875 MM.
2/19/15Teck Transportation DiscussionTECK RESOURCES - - CONSTRUCTION OF “UPGRADER” TO PRODUCE
SYNCRUDE AN ALTERNATIVE TO PIPELINE OR RAIL AT ADDED $2 BILLION
CAP EX TOWARDS 20% OF FORT HILLS
2/19/15Teck ResourcesTECK OIL SANDS PROJECTS MODELED IN DEPTH; COPPER, COAL, ZINC, and
GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES UPDATED
2/13/15Kirkland Lake GoldKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD DEFINES CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL STRATEGY
2/12/15CamecoCAMECO: LOWER FUTURE ESTIMATED SPOT URANIUM PRICES LOWER
ESTIMATED EARNINGS; URANIUM NEAR NIL SHARE OF NEW GENERATING
2/11/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - CUT 2015 NONFERROUS BASE METALS PRICE ESTIMATES
DUE TO STRONG DOLLAR AND “SYMPATHY” TO CRUDE OIL, DESPITE
APPARENT DEMAND UP AND MINE OR REFINED SUPPLIES MOSTLY TIGHT
2/9/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - FEBRUARY SCRAP DECLINES ARE A NEGATIVE NOT A
POSITIVE FOR ANY OF THE STEEL-RELATED COMPANIES
2/5/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - ALMOST A $100/TON DROP IN FEBRUARY SCRAP ! ! !
2/4/15Packaging Corporation of AmericaPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA LOWER Q1 2015 CONTAINERBOARD OUTPUT DUE TO
MAINTENANCE OUTAGES; BOISE SYNERGIES AT $200 MM FROM $175 MM.
2/4/15Corporate Income Tax Rate METALS, FOREST PRODUCTS AND FERTILIZERS - - PRESIDENT OBAMA
PROPOSES TO CUT CORPORATE TAX RATE TO 28% FROM 35%
1/30/15Royal Gold ROYAL GOLD; SHARE
PRICE GAINS, GOLD PRICE, PENASQUITO AND MT. MILLIGAN GOOD NEWS.
1/30/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. WRITEDOWNS, LOWER 2015 COPPER
PRICE ESTIMATES, LOWER OIL/GAS PRICES AND OUTPUT, AND DILUTION
FROM AN ESTIMATED $3 BILLION EQUITY OFFERING COMBINE TO SLASH
EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
1/29/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - STRONGER DOLLAR HURTS SOME CUSTOMER END
MARKETS; STRONG DECEMBER QUARTER EARNINGS WHERE SOME
SELLING PRICES ROSE, PERHAPS AGREED EARLIER WITH TIME LAGS
1/27/15Weyerhaeuser WEYERHAEUSER POTENTIAL EARNINGS SHORTFALLS OR “HEADWINDS” IN 2015
1/26/15Gold MarketGOLD - - GERMAN AND FRENCH LOSSES FROM BAILOUTS AND ECB BOND
BUYING COULD BE LARGER THAN THEIR HARD CURRENCY RESERVES
1/26/15RockTennROCKTENN “START FROM
GROUND ZERO” WITH NEW MODEL AFTER MERGER
1/22/15AntofagastaANTOFAGASTA PLC HIGHER COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES GENERATE HIGHER EPS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
1/22/15Nonferrous PricesNONFERROUS METALS - - WE MAINTAIN ABOVE-CONSENSUS 2015
NONFERROUS PRICE FORECASTS
1/21/15Goldcorp GOLDCORP UPDATED MODELS AFTER JANUARY 12th-19th PRESS RELEASES AND
JANUARY 16TH BREAKFAST
1/21/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. MORE STUDY OF OIL AND GAS CAP EX CONTRACT COMMITMENTS, “FULL
COST” TESTS BY SEPT 30TH AND “SLACK” AT OTHER OIL COMPANIES TO JV
1/19/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. PREVIEW OF CONFERENCE CALL JAN. 27TH CHOICES BETWEEN HIGHER
DEBT VERSUS SLASHING CAP EX OR CUTTING DIVIDEND
1/15/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - ALCOA’S WORLD ALUMINA AND WORLD INGOT
OUTPUT FORECASTS FOR 2015 A VERY HIGH SUPPLY OR OUTPUT LEVEL
1/12/15GlencoreGLENCORE PLC LOWER MET COAL, THERMAL
COAL, AND OIL PRICES PRODUCE LOWER EARNINGS ESTIMATES
1/12/15Gold Greek Euro ExitGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK EXIT FROM EURO
1/11/15AlcoaALCOA PHINERY ALUMINUMAIR
BATTERY GOAL “TWO SMELTERS” OF HIGH PURITY ALUMINUM
1/7/15Plum Creek TimberPLUM CREEK EARNINGS ESTIMATES DECREASED DUE TO LOWER HARVEST VOLUMES
AND LOWER LAND SALES, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SHARE REPURCHASES
1/5/15Nonferrous MetalsMETALS INDUSTRY - - CHINA MASS LIQUIDATION OF NONFERROUS ORES,
CONCENTRATES AND STOCKPILES
12/30/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF US $22.41 and NBD.to C$25.83 rated Overweight with US $33 up
from $31.50 price target) AINSWORTH DEAL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
NPV/SHARE AT OUR BASE CASE OSB PRICING ESTIMATES
12/30/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - MYSTERY OF CHINESE AL SMELTER OUTPUT UP
10.1% WITH WORLD BAUXITE MINES DOWN 20.6%
12/29/2014NICKEL INDUSTRYNICKEL INDUSTRY - - CHINESE STAINLESS OUTPUT UP 13.0% IN FIRST NINE
MONTHS AS CHINA DRAWS DOWN UP TO A FULL YEAR OF Ni INVENTORY
12/26/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $35.09, rated Overweight, price target cut to $44
from $54) EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT; ESTEEM AT LOW EBB WITH MOODY’S
BOND RATING CUT TO SUB-INVESTMENT GRADE; WORLD STAINLESS
CONSTRAINED BY Ni
12/24/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - MINE OUTPUTS OF Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt MAY NOT
REBOUND MUCH OR ENOUGH IN 2015 AFTER 2014 DECLINES
12/22/2014CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FALLING COSTS AND GOOD CORPORATE
DEVELOPMENTS VERSUS CAPACITY ADDITIONS
12/19/2014HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $8.20; Rating Neutral; Price Target $9/share )
HIGHER ESTIMATED COPPER PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
DRIVE HIGHER EARNINGS ESTIMATES; PRICE TARGET FLAT WITH HIGH
SUSTAINING CAP EX AND CONSERVATIVE NPV MODELLING
12/19/2014WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $31.36, rated Overweight, price target cut to
$59 from $62) BUYING OPPORTUNITY AFTER FALLS IN CRUDE OIL AND
STEEL MARGINS; A 7.5% CONSOLIDATED EBIT MARGIN ACHIEVABLE
12/17/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SELLING PRICES FALL, NO SCRAP RISE IN ONSET OF
WINTER AND EXCEPTIONAL STRONG FINAL DEMAND IN U.S.A.
12/16/2014DIVIDENDSMETALS, FOREST PRODUCTS AND FERTILIZERS - - REVIEW OF DIVIDENDS
12/15/2014VALEVALE ( $7.03; rated Overwieght, price target up to $16/share from $13/share) CAP EX
CUTS ADD $4/SHARE VALUES, COST CUTS ADD MORE AND HELP OF MITSUI
JV IN MOZAMBIQUE COAL ADDS FREIGHT WHILE OFFLOADING DEBT
12/15/2014ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $8.91, rated NEUTRAL and price target reduced to
$10/share from $12/share) LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, and PLATINUM
PRICES DRIVE EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND VALUATION DOWN PARTLY
OFFSET BY LOWER CAPITAL EX
12/10/2014DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS: $41.13 rated Neutral with $51.50 down from $52.50 price target)
0.55% HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE REFLECTING UNCOATED FREE SHEET AND
PERSONAL CARE MARKET RISKS; $40/TON COMMUNICATIONS PAPER PRICE
CUT ESTIMATED FOR 2015.
12/10/2014PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG U.S. $6.14; rated Neutral; no price target) CASHED UP
TO BEGIN ENGINEERING AND ADVANCE PROCUREMENT
12/8/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $16.95, rating Overweight, Price Target $23) ALUMINUM THIN STRIP
MICROMILL FOR AUTO BODY PROPOSED
12/4/2014NUCORNUCOR (NUE $55.13, rated Underweight, Price Target cut to $37 from $43) LOWER
STEEL PRICES DUE TO STRONG DOLLAR AND RECORD STEEL IMPORTS
12/3/2014TAHOE RESOURCES INCTAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $14.07, rated Neutral with $12 down from $15
price target) VARIOUS ROYALTIES INCREASED TO 10.5% FROM 5.5%
12/1/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINES AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $23.49 rated Overweight with $42 up from $39 price
target) EL BARQUENO PRODUCTION DOUBLED, MELIADINE OUTPUT NOW
EXPECTED IN 2019 UP FROM 2021
11/26/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - -BOOM LOOMING IN 2016-20 AS BAUXITE,
ALUMINA AND REFINED METAL STOCKS GETTING USED UP
11/26/2014VALEVALE ( $9.47; rated Overwieght, price target lowered to $13/share from $15/share)
FINISHING CARAJAS S11d “Serra Sul” WHILE WEATHERING IRON ORE PRICE
AND VOLUME SHORTFALLS; IPO OF CU-NI VALUED AT $20 BILLION
REQUIRING INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS OF $10 Ni and $3.50 Cu
11/26/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SUPPLIES FALLING AS COMPANIES REACT TO LOW
PRICES AND/OR POOR RETURNS; Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt VERY PROMISING
11/24/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - DEFECTS IN COMPETITION OR INSUFFICIENT
COMPETITION CREATE “NONSENSICAL” PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
11/24/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES RAISED TO $3.25 FROM
$3.00 FOR 2016-18 AND REITERATE BUY RECOMMENDATIONS; DEMAND
GROWTH NEAR 7% OUTSTRIPS “NO GAIN” IN 2014 MINE OUTPUT
11/24/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $27.84, rating Overweight; price target raised to $45
from $37/share) HIGHER ESTIMATED DIRECT/LOWER TOLL SALES AND
LOWER FUTURE POWER COSTS AT MOUNT HOLLY INCREASES EARNINGS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
11/20/2014SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD (SAND $3.05, rated Overweight, Price Target reduced to $5 from
$6) 17% GOLD STREAM ON LUNA GOLD’S AURIZONA MINE RESTRUCTURED
TO A 10% REVENUE ROYALTY AT GOLD PRICES ABOVE $1,350/OZ
11/19/2014SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON (SLW $21.35 rated Neutral, $24 down from $26 price target)
LOWER LONG TERM SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
MODEL ACCRETION AND MINOR PRODUCTION REVISIONS
11/18/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $47.25, rated Underweight, Price Target Cut to $40 from 48) MINERS
DEBATE WHETHER TO CUT MINE OUTPUT AS STEEL OUTPUT SLOWS; PRICE
TARGET AND ESTIMATES CUT TO REFLECT 2% LESS 2015 OUTPUT @ $60/T
11/18/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SUDDEN REVERSALS AFTER SHORTS SQUEEZED; BROAD
EVIDENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DECLINE IN CHINA IN SEPT. AND OCTOBER
11/17/2014GOLD ETF HIDDEN VALUEGOLD INDUSTRY - - THE SHAREHOLDERS OWN THE “GLD” ETF, WHICH
COULD BE SOLD TO REPAY A SMALL BIT OF THE WGC MEMBERS’ DEBTS
11/17/2014OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES (OKSKF US $13.25, OR.to C$15.25) UPGRADED TO
OVERWEIGHT WITH US $17 UP FROM US $14 PRICE TARGET ON VIRGINIA
MINES ACQUISITION
11/13/2014TAHOE RESOURCES INC.TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $15.86, rated Neutral with $15 down from $29
price target ) PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO LOWER SILVER PRICES, HIGHER
COSTS PER TONNE AND LOWER MINE PLAN ORE GRADE
11/12/2014ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $65.64 rated Overweight with $66 price target cut from $68)
LOWER GOLD OUTPUT FROM ANDACOLLO AND LOWER GOLD PRICES
MOSTLY OFFSET BY FAVORABLE ORE GRADES AT MT. MILLIGAN AND
FORECAST 2020 PRODUCTION FROM EUROMAX’S ILOVITZA PROJECT
11/10/2014U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL (X $37.57, rated Underweight down from Neutral, price target raised to $26
from $18) GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS BATTLING TOUGHER
INDUSTRY CLIMATE
11/7/2014ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $9.82; rated Neutral with $14 down from $18 price
target) HIGHER COSTS AND LOWER GOLD PRICES; OBUASI REMOVED FROM
OUR SIMULATIONS UNTIL NEW MODERN MINE PLAN IS ESTABLISHED
11/3/2014IRON OREMETALS INDUSTRY - - TIMING OF IRON ORE AND MET COAL OUTPUT CUTS
TOO SLOW AS CHINA’S STEEL CONSUMPTION FALLS
11/3/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $2.93bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target
lowered from $7.50 to $5) NOTES FROM OCTOBER 21-23 TOURS OF PORT, RAIL,
KINGS, FIRETAIL AND CLOUDBREAK MINES; MODELS UPDATED FOR 10%
DECLINE IN CHINA’S OUTPUT IN CALENDAR 2015 AT $70 BENCHMARK
11/2/2014GOLD AND SILVER RATINGSGOLD INDUSTRY - - RATING CHANGES DUE TO SHARE PRICE CHANGES
10/31/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - CENTRAL CONTROL STRATEGIES REVERSED AFTER
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES BOUGHT 4 MINES FROM ABX AND NEM
10/30/2014CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FALLING COSTS AND GOOD CORPORATE
DEVELOPMENTS VERSUS CAPACITY ADDITIONS
10/29/2014FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. (FCX $29.01, rated Overweight, price target cut from $72
to $40) OVERWEIGHT RATING MAINTAINED DESPITE FALL IN PRODUCT
PRICES WHILE MORE CONSERVATIVE VALUATION METHODOLOGY
LOWERS PRICE TARGET
10/28/2014GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $21.98; rated Overweight, price target $31 down from $36)
ELEONORE DRILLING ACTIVITY VERY LARGE; CAMINO ROJO CAP EX
COULD BE GG’S LARGEST.
10/22/2014AGNICO-EAGLE MINESAGNICO-EAGLE MINES (AEM $30.31 rated Overweight from Neutral with $39 up
from $37 price target) PRICE TARGET RAISED DESPIE LOWER 2014-16
ESTIMATED GOLD PRICES DUE TO EL BARQUENO AND AMARUQ OUTPUT,
LONGER MINE LIFE AT PINOS ALTOS AND 2ND EXPANSION AT KITTILA.
10/17/2014ROCK TENNROCK TENN (RKT $47.07, rated Overweight from Neutral, $63 price target) SEEKS
TO RUN LEAN & REINVEST, ACQUIRE OR BUY BACK STOCK TO KEEP DEBT
NEAR 2X EBITDA
10/15/2014CHINA DEMAND VS FE AND MET COALMETALS INDUSTRY - - TIMING OF IRON ORE AND MET COAL OUTPUT CUTS
TOO SLOW AS CHINA’S STEEL CONSUMPTION FALLS
10/13/2014CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $256.99; rated Neutral; price target $201) VOLUMES, PRICES
AND BUYBACKS FAVORABLE IN 2014; YARA INT’L REQUIRES COST CUTS
10/10/2014FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA ($51.26 rated Neutral with $44 down from $47 price target) $648
MILLION GOLD AND SILVER STREAM ON LUNDIN’S CANDELARIA COPPER
MINE IN CHILE; LOWER NEAR TERM GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
10/10/2014PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $60.76, upgraded to Overweight
from Neutral, Price Target $81) UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT
10/9/2014SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - DOLLAR STRENGTH VERSUS SOME SUPPLY CUTS
10/5/2014GOLD EMERGING ROYALTIESGOLD INDUSTRY – THREE SMALLER STREAMING/ROYALTY COMPANIES
ADDED TO COVERAGE AS BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
10/5/2014OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES (OKSKF US $12.47, OR.to C$14.10) COVERAGE
INITIATED WITH NEUTRAL INVESTMENT RATING AND US $14 PRICE
TARGET
10/5/2014SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD (SAND US $4.04 rated Overweight with $6 price target)
COVERAGE INITIATED WITH OVERWEIGHT INVESTMENT RATING AND US$
$6 PRICE TARGET
10/4/2014VIRGINIA MINESVIRGINIA MINES (VGQ.TO C$12.28 and VGMNF US $10.87) COVERAGE
INITIATED WITH A BUY RECOMMENDATION AND A US $15 PRICE TARGET
10/3/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $15.60, rating Overweight, Price Target $23) POSSIBLE BAUXITE
ALUMINA JV OR ACQUISITION OF VOTORANTIM’S BRAZILIAN ALUMINUM
10/2/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWCMY $5.82, rated Overweight, price target raised to $11 from
$10) FIRM DEMAND AND FALLING INVENTORIES PROMPT HIGHER PRICE
TARGET; CHINESE OUTPUT FIRMER THAN EXPECTED
10/1/2014WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $37.11, rated Overweight, price target $62)
HISTORICAL MARGINS IN STEEL PROCESSING AND CYLINDERS VERSUS
APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATE OR PRICE-EARNINGS MULTIPLE
10/1/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $58.59, rated Neutral, price target lowered to $65/share from
$68/share) ANALYSIS OF COMPANY POST-SPINOFF; COMPARISONS OF BHP
BILLITON AND BHP NEWCO FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS
9/23/2014GALWAY GOLDGALWAY GOLD (GAYGF US $0.054 or GLW.to C$0.06, rated Overweight with $1
down from $2 price target maintained) WAITING FOR COMPLETION OF
ARBITRATION AND LIQUIDATION OF BATISTA ESTATE
9/23/2014ECO OROECO ORO (GYSLF US$0.22 or EOM.TO C$0.25), DELETED FROM COVERAGE AS
CASH BALANCES USED UP SUGGESTING NEED TO CHANGE DIRECTION
9/16/2014DENVER GOLDGOLD INDUSTRY - - DENVER GOLD FORUM TALKS UPBEAT SURPRISINGLY
9/16/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $16.16, rating Overweight, Price Target Raised to $23 from $22) HIGHER
LME AL INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES RAISE EARNINGS TO 2017, WHILE HIGHER
ESTIMATED ALUMINA OPERATING COSTS IN 2018-19 TRIM “TWIN BOOMS”
9/15/2014TECKTECK (TCK $21.35, rated NEUTRAL; price target $22) HIGHLIGHTS OF SEPT. 9TH
OIL SANDS AND COAL PRESENTATIONS; MODELS UPDATED FOR PRICES
9/15/2014SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON ($23.02, rated Neutral, with $26 from $29 price target) HEALTHY
DESPITE LOWER PRICES AND PROJECT DELAYS
9/12/2014BHP BILLITON NEW CO.BHP BILLITON (BHP $65.18; rated Neutral, price target $68) ANALYSIS OF
PROPOSED “NEWCO” SPINOFF INCLUDING ESTIMATED OPERATING
EARNINGS AND POTENTIAL VALUATION
9/8/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $28.66, rating raised to Overweight and price target to
$37 from $16/share) RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT DUE TO DROP IN POWER COSTS
AND BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR ALUMINUM
9/8/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - DEMAND POOR IN 2014 AND STRONG U.S. DOLLAR
WITH LOW REPORTED INFLATION DISCOURAGES INVESTMENT DEMAND
9/8/2014IMPAIRMENTSBASIC INDUSTRIES - - IMPAIRMENT CHARGES FALL IN 2014 AS EXPECTED
9/8/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGLIF U.S. $4.85, rated Overweight, price target raised to
US $17 from US $12.50 price target) HIGHER GRADES AND INCORPORATION OF
500 TON/DAY SHALLOW RAMP AT 0.30 OZ/TON IN FY 2017 CREATES VALUE
9/5/2014SPOTMARKERSSPOT MARKETS - - GLOBAL GROWTH RATES SLOW AS EU STEEL OUTPUT
FELL IN JULY AND CU, NI AND ZN DEMAND HAVE SUMMER DOLDRUMS
9/5/2014LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC (LPX: $14.29 rated neutral with $18 price target maintained)
GRADUAL RATHER THAN RAPID RECOVERY IN OSB PRICING ESTIMATED;
SIDING CONVERSION AND 3RD CHILEAN MILL PROJECTS UNDER STUDY
9/5/2014LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC (LPX: $14.29 rated neutral with $18 price target maintained)
GRADUAL RATHER THAN RAPID RECOVERY IN OSB PRICING ESTIMATED;
SIDING CONVERSION AND 3RD CHILEAN MILL PROJECTS UNDER STUDY
9/3/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - GALLATIN STEEL THIN SLAB MINIMILL FOR SALE
8/29/2014OSB INDUSTRYFOREST PRODUCTS - - NORTH AMERICAN OSB PRICES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER GRADUALLY THROUGH 2021 AS HOUSING STARTS INCREASE
8/29/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - SPECIFICS OF WORLD BAUXITE OUTPUT WITH
INDONESIA IDLE INDICATE PENDING SHORTAGES
8/27/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF US $21.22 rated Overweight with US $32 down from $42 price
target) LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS AND NPV; OSB
PRICE EXPECTATION EMBEDDED IN STOCK PRICE ESTIMATED AT $221/000
SQ FT FOR 2015-2022
8/27/2014HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $10.24; Rating Neutral; Price Target RAISED from
$6/share to $9/share) ROSEMONT PROJECT INCORPORATED INTO MODELS,
RESULTING IN HIGHER FUTURE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
8/27/2014RATINGS CHANGES FOLLOW ON 082214 FROM 012314NORBORD (NBRXF US $21.22 rated Overweight with US $32 down from $42 price
target) LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS AND NPV; OSB
PRICE EXPECTATION EMBEDDED IN STOCK PRICE ESTIMATED AT $221/000
SQ FT FOR 2015-2022
8/22/2014DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DULMF US $0.296, rated Overweight,$2 to$5 price target with no
models) PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY NOT ACCEPTABLE OWING TO
ORE GRADE MEASUREMENT, RECOVERY RATES OTHER THAN COPPER TOO
LOW, SCALE OF OPERATION AND EXCESS CAP EX
8/13/2014BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $19.18 rated Underweight with $14 up from $12 price target)
LOWER EXPLORATION, LOWER S,G,+A, AND LOWER CASH OPERATING
COSTS DRIVE HIGHER NPV AND POST 2015 EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/10/2014VALEVALE (VALE $13.83, Rating OVERWEIGHT, Price Target cut to $15 from $22)
CONVERSIONS TO PELLETS TO UPGRADE QUALITY AND PRICING; SEVERE
CUTS DUE TO LOSSES IN FERTILIZER & COAL, LESS COPPER GROWTH, LESS
NICKEL OUTPUT AND IRON ORE COMPETITION
8/9/2014NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $26.39 rated Neutral with $23 up from $22 price target
maintained) CONTINUES TO CUT COSTS; MERIAN CAP EX AND INDONESIAN
ARBITRATION OFFER “LITTLE JOY”
8/9/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $4.16 bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target
lowered from $7.50 to $6) LOWER REALIZED IRON ORE PRICE ESTIMATES
LOWER CURRENT AND FUTURE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/4/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MAY YTD APPARENT DEMAND GROWTH AT 9.3% IN
EUROPE, 22.5% IN CHINA AND 3.3% FOR REMAINDER OF WORLD OUTSTRIPS
SUPPLY; DEGREE OF SEASONAL DROP IN SECOND-HALF IMPORTANT
8/4/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $37.39, rated Neutral, $37 price target) GUIDANCE
STEP-UPS DID NOT MEET EXPECTATONS
8/3/2014FREEPORT-McMoRANFREEPORT-McMoRAN (FCX $36.78, rated Overweight, price target $72) 2014
THROUGH 2017 COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES RAISED; HIGHER ROYALTIES,
DUTIES AND INDONESIAN OWNERSHIP LITTLE IMPACT ON MODELS
7/30/2014SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINESE JUNE STEEL, ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA
OUTPUTS SURGE DESPITE TIGHTER ENVIRONMENAL RULES
7/29/2014PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER (PCL $42.65 rated Overweight with $47 price target
maintained) HIGHER LAND BASIS FOR REAL ESTATE SALES MOSTLY OFFSET
BY HIGHER SOUTHERN HARVEST VOLUMES
7/29/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $5.97, RATING OVERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET RAISED
TO $10.00 from $6.00); SIMULATION OF TWIN BOOM 2018-19 $2/LB LME
YEARS BOOSTS TARGET
7/28/2014ABX CHILE WATER DISPUTEBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.51 Underweight rating, $12 price target) WATER
QUALITY VIOLATIONS AND OBJECTIONS TO PASCUA-LAMA PERMITS
FROM CHILEAN PERSPECTIVE
7/25/2014PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $67.77 rated Neutral with $81 up
from $64 price target) LOWER OPERATING COST ESTIMATES BASED ON
SYNERGIES AND THE START UP OF THE DERIDDER MILL IN Q4 2014;
HIGHER PACKAGING SEGMENT REALIZATION ESTIMATES BASED ON Q2
2014 RESULTS AND ASSUMED FLAT PACKAGING PRICING THROUGH 2017.
7/24/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $73.57, RATING REDUCED FROM OVERWEIGHT TO
NEUTRAL, price target cut from $83 to $68) LOWER LONG TERM IRON ORE
PRICE ESTIMATES DUE TO GREATER ESTIMATED DISCOUNTS TO
BENCHMARK RESULT IN LOWER ESTIMATED EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
7/23/2014RATINGS CHANGESMETALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - “THINNING” OUR OVERWEIGHT
RATINGS TO FOCUS ON HIGHER POTENTIAL COMPANIES
7/23/2014ABX STRATEHGY OVERVIEWBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.84, rated Underweight from Neutral with $12 down from
$16 price target) MAJOR POLICY DECISION ITINERARY TO 2016 WHOMEVER
RUNS THE COMPANY
7/23/2014ABX FINANCIALSBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.84 rated Underweight from Neutral with $12 down from
$16 price target) NPV/SHARE DECLINES DUE TO THE REMOVAL OF PASCUA
LAMA, LOWER 2014 AND 2015 ESTIMATD GOLD PRICES, HIGHER CASH
OPERATING COSTS AT KEY MINES, AND RECOVERY LOSSES
7/22/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $57.40, RATING LOWERED TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM
NEUTRAL, price target lowered to $48 from $55/share) ESTIMATED REALIZED
IRON ORE PRICES LOWERED FOR 2014 ONWARD; HIGHER AL PREMIUMS
AND SIMULATION OF “TWIN BOOM YEARS” IN 2018 AND 2019 INTRODUCED
7/21/2014IRON OREIRON ORE - - DISCOUNTS TO “62% BENCHMARK” RISE IN ABSOLUTE TERMS
AS THE BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS; OUTPUT CUTS ERASE SURPLUS AND
SUPPLY SHORTFALLS CONCEIVABLE
7/18/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $17.87, rating Neutral; price target raised to $16/share
from $13/share) HIGHER PREMIUMS AND OUR SIMULATION OF TWIN BOOM
YEARS IN 2018 AND 2019 BOOSTS TARGET WHILE HIGHER ESTIMATED
COSTS AND INCREASED DISCOUNT RATES IN DCF MODEL PARTLY OFFSET
7/16/2014GOLDGOLD - - EXTREME DIVERGENT SEGMENTS OF MARKET
7/15/2014VALEVALE (VALE $13.92, Rating OVERWEIGHT, Price Target raised to $22 from 18)
BIGGER QUALITY PREMIUMS AND COST CUTS ADD $4 TO PRICE TARGET
7/14/2014ROCKTENN ROCKTENN (RKT $101.10 rated Neutral with $91 down from $92 price target)
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO ASSUMED FLAT
CONTAINERBOARD/CORRUGATED BOX PRICING THROUGH 2017 AS
CAPACITY COMES ONLINE
7/14/2014THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS (TC $2.86 rating remains Neutral; price target remains
$2.50/share) FINANCIAL MODELS UPDATED FOR BETTER THAN EXPECTED
MOLY AND COPPER PRICES IN 2014, WHERE GOLD REBOUNDS LESS THAN
ESTIMATED, AND REFINANCINGS, OUTPUT AND COST DEVELOPMENTS
7/10/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGILF $3.61, rated Overweight $12.50 price target)
FOCUS ON SETTLING 2017 CONVERTIBLE MATURITIES AND NEW “NEAR
SURFACE” RAMP AND “5,600 FOOT LEVEL” OF SOUTH MINE NEAR 0.7 OZ/ton
7/9/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $15.67, rating Overweight, Price Target Raised to $22 from $18) HIGHER
PREMIUMS AND OUR SIMULATION OF TWIN BOOM YEARS BOOSTS TARGET
7/8/2014GENERAL MOLY INC.GENERAL MOLY INC. (GMO $1.09, Rating RAISED to NEUTRAL on June 4th,
Price Target RAISED to $1.25 from $1); RECENT GAINS IN MOLY PRICES
HELP FINANCING; LIBERTY PREFEASIBILITY ENCOURAGING; MT.
HOPE AND LIBERTY TIMING DELAYED TO 2018 & 2019, RESPECTIVELY
7/8/2014CHINA DEMAND-SUPPLYCHINA SLOWDOWN SCENARIOS - - WINNERS AND LOSERSCHINA SLOWDOWN SCENARIOS - - WINNERS AND LOSERS
7/7/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - UNCOMMON “ANXIETY RALLY” AS IRAQ AND SYRIAN
CRISES CONTINUE AND HISTORIC THIRD “BATTLE OF KARBALA” LOOMS
7/3/2014ALCOA W-FIRTH-RIXSONALCOA (AA $14.98, rating Overweight, Price Target $18) WE WILL BUILD ABOUT
100 MM NEW SHARES, FIRTH-RIXSON, YTD $0.19 PREMIUMS, UPDATED
ALUMINUM SUPPLY-DEMAND AND 2Q RESULTS AFTER JULY 8TH CALL
7/3/2014SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - INVENTORIES FALL AS CHINESE NONFERROUS OUTPUTS
FALL; DROPS IN IRON ORE AND COAL PENALIZE STEEL PRICES
7/3/2014DULUTH METALS RESTOREDDULUTH METALS (DULMF US $0.55, Upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; $2 to
$5 price target range instituted from prior suspended price target) TOTAL DIVORCE
FROM ANTOFAGASTA PLC A POSITIVE, AND TRIGGERS LIKELY SIX MONTH
DEADLINE TO SELL 100% OF PROJECT
7/2/2014PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $8.32, rated Neutral) FOUR SIMULATED GRADE &
TONNAGE SCENARIOS GIVE WIDE RANGE OF NPVs FROM $4,661 TO $485 MM
7/2/2014ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANFGF $12.97, RATING OVERWEIGHT since June 4th,
Price Target RAISED to $17 from $13/ADS share) HIGHER COPPER PRICE
ESTIMATES GENERATE HIGHER EPS AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
6/30/2014CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY -- SECOND HALF 2014 PRICE DISCOUNTS
LIKELY LARGER THAN OCC PRICE DECLINES; FLAT DEMAND AND
SIGNIFICANT NEW RECYCLED CAPACITY COMING ONLINE.
6/27/2014NON FERROUSCHINA 3% DECLINE IN YTD NONFERROUS OUTPUT AS GLOBAL DEMAND
GROWTH DRIVES > 50,000 T WEEKLY EXCHANGE INVENTORY FALL
6/26/2014GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, $5.53; RATED OVERWEIGHT; PRICE
TARGET RAISED TO USD $9/SHARE FROM USD $7/SHARE) HIGHER COPPER,
ZINC, AND NICKEL PRICES INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES; MARKETING
MARGINS OF METALS SEGMENT INCREASED BY 25 BASIS POINTS
6/23/2014SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON (SLW: $25.56; rated Overweight up from Neutral with $29.50 up
from $23 price target) TWO NEW PRECIOUS METALS STREAMS BUILT INTO
THE MODEL; PREMIUM TO NPV INCREASED TO 50% FROM 25%
6/20/2014GLOBAL IRON OREIRON ORE SUPPLY AND DEMAND -- CHINESE CUTS HOLD PRICES AT $90/t
6/20/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $42.45, rated Overweight, price target $54 up
from $44) STAINLESS STEEL BASE PRICE HIKES TO STICK AS 25% FALL IN YTD
WORLD NICKEL MINE OUTPUT CONSTRA
6/19/2014GOLDCORP GOLDCORP (GG $26.10; rated Overweight; $36 up from $32 price target) CAMINO
ROJO SULPHIDE PROJECT AND HIGHER PENASQUITO RECOVERY RATES
RAISE NPV/SHARE; LOWER 2014 AND 2015 GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES.
6/16/2014FREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $33.91, rated Overweight, price
target $72) HIGHLIGHTS FROM VISIT TO 55%-OWNED SERBIAN COPPER-GOLD
PROJECT
6/13/2014MEADWESTVACOMEADWESTVACO ($43.26 rated Neutral from Underweight with $36 up from $31
price target) LOWER CAPEX AND HIGHER 2015 ONWARDS EARNINGS
ESTIMATES PROMPT UPGRADE
6/13/2014CHINA IMPAIRMENTSMETALS INDUSTRY - - FIRST BLUSH ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL PRETAX
IMPAIRMENT CHARGES IN CHINA
6/4/2014NONFERROUS METALS NEW CHOKE POINTSALUMINUM, NICKEL, LEAD, ZINC AND COPPER - - TIGHT NEW “CHOKE
POINTS” USHER BULL MARKET WITH INDONESIAN BAN JANUARY 12TH
AND POST-NOVEMBER 10TH CHINESE AIR POLLUTION ENFORCEMENT
6/4/2014LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING (LUNMF U.S. $5.36, rated Overweight, price target $7)
COVERAGE INITIATED AT OVERWEIGHT RATING BASED ON EXPOSURES TO
Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn POTENTIAL PRICE RECOVERIES AND EAGLE MINE GRADES
6/3/2014WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER (WY $31.09, rated Overweight up from Neutral, $39 up from $35
price target) UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT BASED ON PREMIUM LOG PROFITS,
POTENTIAL IMPROVED VALUATION AND FALLING INTEREST RATES
6/2/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $52.24, RATED NEUTRAL, price target lowered to $55 from
$58/share) NONFERROUS METALS PRICES RAISED; SIMANDOU PROJECT
ENLARGED, PUSHED BACK AND CAP EX COSTS LARGER
5/29/2014HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $9.13; Rating Underweight; Price Target RAISED
from $3.50/ to $6/share) PRICE ESTIMATES RAISED FOR COPPER AND ZINC
RAISING EPS, CASH FLOW, TARGETS; AUGUSTA RESOURCES’ ROSEMONT
PROJECT (AZC; $2.80) EXCLUDED FROM MODELS CUTTING FUTURE CAP EX
5/29/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $29.74 rated Overweight with $37 down from $38
price target) INCLUSION OF PRODUCTION FROM CANADIAN MALARTIC,
UPPER BEAVER, AND SATELLITE ZONES OF GOLDEX; PHOTO TOUR OF MAY
21, 2014 TRIP TO LARONDE, CANADIAN MALARTIC, AND GOLDEX.
5/29/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - INVENTORIES FALL; LEAD, ZINC & NICKEL OUTPUTS
FALL WHILE STAINLESS STEEL, IRON ORE AND MET COAL OUTPUTS RISE;
PRICE ESTIMATES CUT FOR GOLD & SILVER AND Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn RAISED
5/22/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $40.77, rated Overweight with price target $44)
BOEING PLANS SLOW 787 VOLUME RISES AS COSTS STINK; VISIT TO
EVERETT, WA ASSEMBLY PLANT AND BOEING MAY 21ST INVESTOR DAY
5/22/2014NUCORNUCOR (NUE $50.99, rated Neutral up from Underweight; price target raised to $43
from $28) INVESTMENT RATING RAISED TO NEUTRAL AND PRICE TARGET
TO $43 FROM $28 AS GREATER FREE CASH FLOWS EVOLVING
5/21/2014PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER (PCL: $42.58, rated Overweight up from Neutral; price target
$47 up from $45) EARNINGS ESTIMATES INCREASED 10% TO 15% AND
UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT WITH HIGHER LOG PRICE ESTIMATES
5/16/2014LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC (LPX $14.25, rated Overweight with $18 down from $20 price
target) DESPITE AINSWORTH DEAL CANCELLATION ON ANTITRUST BASIS,
FAVORABLE 3.35% THIRTY YEAR BOND OFFERS OSB PRICE GAINS
5/16/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF: US $26.14 rated Overweight from with US $42 up from $36 price
target) LOWER 2014 AND 2015 EARNINGS ESTIMATES DUE TO LOWER OSB
PRICES; NPV IMPROVES FROM LOWER OPERATING COST ESTIMATES BOTH
IN NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN SEGMENTS.
5/15/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $71.61, rated Overweight, price target $83) INJECTS CAPITAL
INTO IMPROVING PETROHAWK SUBSIDIARY; INCORPORATED $0.14 AL
PREMIUM; WE PENALIZE VALUATION FOR ASSET SALE UNCERTAINTY
5/14/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $13.98, rating Neutral; price target raised to $13/share
from $11/share) HELGUVIK AND RAVENSWOOD REMOVED FROM OUR
MODELS; NEAR TERM LME ALUMINUM ESTIMATES LOWERED; MIDWEST
PREMIUM ESTIMATES AND FUTURE ALUMINA COSTS RAISED
5/12/2014METALS INDUSTRIESMETALS INDUSTRIES - - RESTORING INVESTOR CONFIDENCE; ESTIMATE
INDUSTRYWIDE IMPAIRMENTS FALL 80% FROM PEAK IN 2014
5/12/2014FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $33.91, rated Overweight, price
target raised from $60 to $72) HIGHER ESTIMATED MID-TERM COPPER OUPTUT
AND LONG TERM OIL AND GAS OUTPUT INCREASE CASH FLOW; HIGHER
DEPRECIATION CUTS EARNINGS WHILE INCREASING NPV VIA LESS TAXES
5/12/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - EUROPEAN GROWTH, SMELTER BOTTLENECK AND
LOW PRICES DRAW EXCHANGE INVENTORIES TO 314,905 T ON MAY 9TH
5/9/2014INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP $46.52 rated Neutral with $44 down from $52 price
target) XPEPX SPIN OUT ON JUNE 30, 2014; MODELS UPDATED BASED ON Q1
2014 RESULTS
5/5/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - NICKEL PRICE RISE, COPPER, LEAD AND ZINC FALLING
INVENTORY AND “PROCESSORS” ATI, AA, CENX, AWC AMONG LEADERS
5/2/2014WEYERHAEUSERFOREST PRODUCTS - - COMPARISON OF LARGE CAP TIMBERLANDS
COMPANIES PLUM CREEK AND WEYERHAEUSER VALUATIONS “PER ACRE,”
MARKET-BASED DISCOUNT RATE AND LOWER 4% DISCOUNT RATE
4/27/2014TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES ($22.48 rated Overweight with $29 price target) GRADE, TONS
PER DAY AND PAYABLE SALES GOVERN 18-21 MM OZ GUIDANCE; WE CUT
OUR 2014-16 DIVIDEND ESTIMATES DUE TO SILVER PRICES
4/27/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - - ESTIMATED TIMETABLE TO RESTART BARRICK’S
PASCUA-LAMA MINE IN CHILE
4/27/2014ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $66.05; rated Overweight; $75 up from $67 price target)
ASSUMED 5% GOLD STREAM ON RESTAGED ABX PASCUA-LAMA BUILT
INTO MODEL; HIGHER PREMIUM TO NPV/SHARE; ESTIMATES CUT.
4/27/2014BIG SIX NET DEBTMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2014, 2015 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, GlencoreXstrata PLC, and Teck)
4/25/2014FREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $33.85, rated Overweight, price
target $59) EXCITING OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENTS ADD VALUE
4/25/2014ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $13.09, rated NEUTRAL and price target reduced to
$10/share from $12/share) LOWER METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES DRIVE
DOWN EARNINGS; HIGHER 2014 IRON ORE AND NICKEL PRICE ESTIMATES
OFFSET IN THE NEAR TERM
4/23/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $40.62, rated Overweight with price target $44)
“ACCRETION OF TIME” AND SIX SIGNS OF AN UPTURN WITHOUT ANY
BETTER-THAN-EXEPECTED FIRST-QUARTER RESULTS
4/21/2014GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, $5.27; RATED NEUTRAL; PRICE TARGET
REMAINS AT USD $7/SHARE) LOWER METALLURGICAL COAL AND 2014
COPPER PRICES HURT EARNINGS; INCORPORATION OF LAS BAMBAS SALE
AND CARACAL ACQUISITION INTO OUR MODELS
4/21/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - LOW PRICES FORCE MERGERS AMONG LARGER FIRMS
4/21/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM: $28.39, rated Overweight, price target cut to $38 from
$44) MORE DETAILS AND IMPLICATIONS OF POSSIBLE OSISKO MERGER
4/16/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM: $27.88 rated Overweight with $44 price target)
ACQUISITION PROPOSAL POORLY UNDERSTOOD AND POORLY ACCEPTED,
WHERE AEM MAY HAVE “PUT ITSELF IN PLAY”
4/15/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $55.42, RATED NEUTRAL, price target raised to $58 from
$56/share) HIGHER MIDWEST PREMIUMS TO REALIZED ALUMINUM PRICES
RAISE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES; LOWER NEAR TERM MET
COAL AND ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET EARNINGS
4/15/2014PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER (PCL: $41.09 rated Neutral with $45 up from $44 price target)
ALMOST UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT WITH STOCK PRICE DECLINE
4/8/2014FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA (FNV $48.27 rated Neutral with $47 up from $41 price target)
HIGHER PREMIUM TO NPV ASSIGNED DUE TO PORTFOLIO EXPLORATION
UPSIDE; FOUR NEW ASSETS INCORPORATED INTO AND TASEKO “NEW
PROSPERITY” REMOVED FROM PRODUCTION PROFILE.
4/8/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $12.53, rating Overweight, Price Target Raised to $18 form $17)
ALUMINA AND INGOT PRICES BETTER THAN EXPECTED AS MIDWEST
PREMIUMS & UBC SCRAP QUOTES SIGNAL TIGHTNESS; ESTIMATES RAISED
A BIT; CAP EX HELD LOW
4/7/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - SECONDARY SMELTERS PAY LME PRICES FOR
USED BEVERAGE CAN SCRAP LARGELY JUSTIFYING MIDWEST PREMIUM
4/3/2014U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL (X $28.09; Rating Neutral; Price target $18) UNUSUAL AND WEATHER
RELATED BUSINESS INTERRUPTIONS
4/3/2014CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS OF “NATURAL RESOURCES TRACK” AT OUR MARCH 31ST
CONFERENCE
4/2/2014CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS OF MARCH 31, 2014 METALS CONFERENCE PAST ADVISORY
CLIENTS PLATINUM GROUP METALS AND TEXAS RARE EARTH RESOURCES
4/1/2014CONFERENCE HIGHTLISHTSHIGHLIGHTS OF “GOLD TRACK” AT OUR MARCH 31ST CONFERENCE
4/1/2014CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTSMetals and
Mining Conference Core Shack, March 31, 2014
3/28/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM: $31.29 rated Overweight with $44 up from $42 price
target) LOWER CASH OPERATING COST ESTIMATES AND A HIGHER
PREMIUM TO NPV SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY A HIGHER EFFECTIVE TAX RATE
3/28/2014SPOT MARKETS -SPOT MARKETS - - LARGEST WEEKLY INVENTORY RISE IN NEARLY A YEAR
3/26/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $11.92, rating raised to Overweight from Neutral, Price Target raised to
$17 from $12) HIGHER ESTIMATED MIDWEST PREMIUMS OVERCOMPENSATE
FOR LOWER ESTIMATED 2014 and 2015 LME ALUMINUM INGOT PRICES
RESULTING IN INCREASED EARNINGS ESTIMATES; ESTIMATED CAPITAL
EXPENDITURES REDUCED BY $1 BILLION ANNUALLY 2014-2017
3/26/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 5.9 MMT OF EXCHANGE INVENTORIES LINGER
WITH RECORD CHINESE OUTPUT AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ROW
OUTPUT
3/24/2014VALEVALE (VALE $13.04, Rating OVERWEIGHT, Price Target raised to $18 from $16)
HIGHER FUTURE IRON ORE PRODUCTION AND 2014 NICKEL REBOUND
INCREASES EARNINGS TO OFFSET WEAKER 2014 COPPER AND LONG TERM
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES
3/23/2014ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $17.99, rated neutral, price target $18 from $15)
LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX AND LOWER CASH OPERATING COSTS
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE REMOVAL OF THE LA COLOSA PROJECT.
3/21/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $36.20, rated Overweight with price target $44)
FOUR SIGNS OF AN UPTURN OR BETTER-THAN-EXEPECTED RESULTS
3/18/2014GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $27.84 rated Overweight; $32 up from $27 price target) SHORTER
MINE LIVES AT CERRO NEGRO, PUEBLO VIEJO, AND LOS FILOS PARTLY
OFFSET BY GAINS ON GG’S 58 MM SHARES OF TAHOE RESOURCES AND
ESTIMATED PREMIUM TO NPV INCREASED TO 50% FROM 25%
3/13/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - WEATHER DISRUPTS MANY VOLUMES DISTORTING
FIRST-QUARTER ECONOMIC AND METALS MARKET SPRING PEAK DATA
3/13/2014GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, $5.10; RATED NEUTRAL; PRICE TARGET
RAISED TO USD $7/SHARE from USD $5/SHARE) HIGHER COPPER AND ZINC
PRODUCTION ESTIMATES GENERATE ADDITIONAL CASH FLOW; LAS
BAMBAS REINCORPORATED INTO OUR MODELS ADDS TO PRICE TARGET
3/12/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - PRICE ESTIMATES DECREASED FOR 2014 BY $0.50/LB
3/6/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - SECOND OPEN LETTER TO STRESS THE IMPORTANCE
OF RETAINED EARNINGS TO YOUR STAFF IN “REBUILDING CREDIBILITY”
3/6/2014METALS TOR. CONF.COPPER AND IRON ORE DEPOSITS EVIDENT AT TORONTO PROSPECTORS
AND DEVELOPERS CONVENTION MARCH 2ND -5TH
3/2/2014BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $20.38; rated Neutral, price target reduced to $16.50 from $18)
STRATEGIES TO CUT DEBT AND PRESERVE EQUITY VALUES WITH FEWER
MINES
3/2/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESOURCE ESTIMATION METHODS OF PRETIUM (PVG
$6.21, rated Neutral, no price target) AND AGNICO-EAGLE MINES (AEM $32.12,
rated Overweight, price target $42 from $43) SHOW IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES
2/28/2014TECKTECK (TCK $22.35, raised to NEUTRAL from UNDERWEIGHT; price target raised to
$22 from $16) ESTIMATED ASSET SALES AND CAPITAL EX CUTS INCREASE
FREE CASH FLOW AND PREVENT A WEAKER BALANCE SHEET
2/27/2014GOLD MINE RESERVESGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESERVES FALL 15% TO SUGGEST GLOBAL MINE
RESERVE LIVES FALL BY TWO YEARS CLIPPING POST-2020 OUTPUT
2/26/2014PLATINUM GROUP METALSPLATINUM GROUP METALS (PLG; US $1.14, not rated) NOTES FROM MEETING
WITH SCHALK ENGLEBRECHT IN JOHANNESBURG ON JANUARY 30th
2/26/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $69.19, rating OVERWEIGHT, price target raised from $78 to
$83) LOWER OPERATING COSTS IN IRON ORE, COAL, PETROLEUM,
ALUMINUM, AND NICKEL DIVISIONS INCREASE EARNINGS AND CASH
GENERATION WHILE STRENGTHENING THE BALANCE SHEET
2/25/2014

CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $242.79; rated Neutral; price target $201) HIGHER VOLUMES
AND FEWER SHARES BENEFIT 2013-2016, BUT HIGHER NAT GAS AND
HIGHER NET DEBT SHAVE 2017-2020 ESTIMATES
2/14/2014NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $23.855 rated Neutral down from Overweight with $22
down from $40 price target) LOWER GOLD OUTPUT, HIGHER CASH COST
ESTIMATES, AND HIGHER NON-CONTROLLING INTEREST DIVIDEND
PAYMENTS. FIVE POTENTIAL BUSINESS ALTERNATIVES STUDIED.
2/12/2014PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG US $6.55, rating Neutral and price target suspended)
NEW TECHNICAL REPORT BY SNOWDEN AND SNOWDEN PRESENTATIONS
2/12/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - BULLION ETF HOLDINGS ENJOY NET ACCUMULATIONS
AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES
2/10/2014IVANHOE MINESIVANHOE MINES (IVPAF US$1.37, not rated) SITE VISITS TO HISTORIC KIPUSHI
COPPER-ZINC AND NEW KAMOA COPPER PROJECTS IN DRC CONGO
2/6/2014IVANHOE MINESIVANHOE MINES (IVPAF US$1.40, not rated) NOTES FROM SITE VISIT TO
“PLATREEF” PROJECT IN LIMPOPO, SOUTH AFRICA
2/4/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $4.59 bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target
$7.50) EARNINGS ESTIMATES RAISED DUE TO HIGHER 2014 ACTUAL PRICES,
HIGHER VOLUMES AND LOWER COSTS; $50/T CAP EX TARGET FOR NEXT 20
MMT EXPANSION TO 175 MMT
2/3/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF: $28.02 rated Overweight from Neutral with $36 up from $32 price
target) LOWER CAPEX AND LOWER NORTH AMERICAN OPERATING COSTS
DRIVES HIGHER NPV; DIVIDEND YIELD OF 7.68% ANTICIPATES $250+ OSB
1/31/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - REGULATIONS TO CUT SUPPLIES OF ALUMINUM,
NICKEL, AND COPPER; WEAKER RESOURCE CURRENCIES LOWER COSTS AS
NI, AU AND PT RISE AS ONLY IRON ORE PRICES FALL IN JANUARY
1/30/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $4.39, RATING OVERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET $6.00);
ALCOA SKEPTICAL OF INDONESIAN JANUARY 12TH EXPORT BAN, BELIEVES
CHINA HAS HUGE BAUXITE INVENTORIES AND STUDIES OUTPUT CUTS
1/28/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $4.42, RATING OVERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET RAISED
FROM $5.00 to $6.00); HIGHER ALUMINA PRICES, FULLER VOLUMES AND A
WEAKER AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPROVE OUTLOOK DESPITE LOW LME
ALUMINUM PRICES AND CONTINUED INGOT INVENTORIES
1/24/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $33.29, rated Overweight with price target $44)
PEAK EARNINGS POWER WANES WITH PRICE-COST PRESSURES
1/24/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $4.49 bid; rating raised to OVERWEIGHT from
NEUTRAL; price target raised to $7.50 from $5) HIGHER LONG TERM IRON ORE
PRICES AND DECREASED COSTS INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
1/21/2014BIG SIX BALANCE SHEETSMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2014, 2015 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, GlencoreXstrata PLC, and Teck)
1/21/2014METALS CURRENCY SHIFTNONFERROUS METALS - - METALS PRICES RISE IN PAST 2 WEEKS AS KEY
RESOURCE CURRENCIES FALL, OFFERING “DOUBLE WINS” REGIONALLY
WITH INCREASING ODDS OF FAVORABLE FIRST-QUARTER EPS SURPRISES
1/16/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGLIF $2.70, rated Overweight, price target $12.50)
Special Independent Committee presentation 1-16-2014 to Pamela Klessig,
Brian E. Bayley, Dawn Whittaker LLB
1/16/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGLIF $2.70, rated Overweight, price target $12.50) TEN
YEAR PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS AND FUTURE GOLD PRICE BREAKEVEN
1/16/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGILF $2.70, rated Overweight $12.50 price target)
COVERAGE INITIATED AT OVERWEIGHT INVESTMENT RATING BASED ON
ESTIMATED GOLD OUTPUT GAINS AND CASH FLOWS
1/13/2014GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, 5.24; RATED RAISED TO NEUTRAL
FROM UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET USD $5) HIGHER COPPER PRICES AND
INCREASED PRODUCTION ESTIMATES GENERATE ADDITIONAL CASH
FLOW TO HELP BALANCE SHEET
1/13/2014GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $23.10, rated Overweight, price target lowered to $27 from $30)
FAVORABLE COMMENTS CONCERNING OSISKO ACQUISITION. HIGHER TAX
RATES AND SHORTER PENASQUITO MINE LIFE MORE THAN OFFSET
POSITIVE IMPACT OF CANADIAN MALARTIC ACQUISITION.
1/11/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - RELATIVE FINANCIAL STRENGTH MEASURED AS GOLD
PRICE BREAKEVEN FOR EACH MAJOR COMPANY’S NPV/SHARE= ZERO
1/9/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - PRICE ESTIMATES INCREASED FOR 2014-2016 BASED
ON HIGHER CONSUMPTION ABSORBING MUCH OF MINE OUPUT GAINS
1/8/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - IMPACT OF HIGHER LONG TERM GOLD PRICES ON
EARNINGS AND NPV/SHARE ESTIMATES FOR ROYALTY COMPANIES;
PASCUA-LAMA DELAY TO 2019 HURTS NPV AND EPS FOR RGLD AND SLW
1/8/2014CHINA DEMOGRAPHICS 2ND LOOKA CLOSER LOOK AT CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHICS, “ONE CHILD” POLICY 36%
ENFORCED IN 1979-2013 AND OUTLOOK; WE APPLY HIGHER TERMINAL
DISCOUNT RATES AFTER 2022 TO SHAVE RATINGS ON RIO, VALE & ABX
1/4/2014ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $12.15 rated Neutral from Overweight with $15 down
from $23 price target) LOWER GOLD PRODUCTION, HIGHER COSTS, HIGHER
DISCOUNT RATES FOR AFRICAN MINES, AND A LOWER PREMIUM TO NPV
1/3/2014EXTRA NORMAL CYCLES“DEMAND DESTRUCTION” OR “MARKET DESTRUCTION” DUE TO HIGH
PRICES PREVENTS KEEPS SOME COMMODITIES IN THE PENALTY BOX
1/3/2014POST-2020 OUTLOOKPOST-2020 BASE METALS OUTLOOK GLOOMY WITH 67 MM FEWER PERSONS
IN CHINESE WORK FORCE BY 2030, DEBT LOADS AND WAGE TRENDS
12/24/2013WEYERHAUSERWEYERHAUSER (WY: $31.28 rated Neutral with $35 up from $34 price target)
LOWER YEAR END 2013 PENSION AND OTHER EMPLOYEE BENEFIT
OBLIGATION MORE THAN OFFSETS LOWER OPERATING MARGIN
ESTIMATES IN CELLULOSE FIBERS AND WOOD PRODUCTS
12/24/2013SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINESE STEEL & COPPER SLOW FROM SEPTEMBER;
WBMS REVISES CHINA MINE OUTPUT UP FOR Cu, Pb, Zn, Au and Ag
12/20/2013DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS $91.84 rated Neutral with $105 up from $74 price target) HIGHER
EBITDA ESTIMATES IN PERSONAL CARE SEGMENT, LOWER ESTIMATED
YEAR END 2013 PENSION AND MEDICAL LIABILITIES, HIGHER LONG RUN
OPERATING MARGINS IN PULP AND PAPER SEGMENT.
12/20/2013TECKTECK (TCK $24.44, lowered to Underweight; price target lowered to $18 from $25)
LOWER OIL AND COAL PRICES HURT FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL;
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED NEAR TERM COPPER PRICES AND
COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES OFFSET SHORT TERM EARNINGS
12/20/2013COPPER INDUSTRY WORLD S-D COPPER INDUSTRY - - 4 COPPER-RELATED STOCKS RATED OVERWEIGHT
AND TWO COPPER PRICE ESTIMATE HIKES DUE TO STRONGER DEMAND
12/20/2013COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - HEAP LEACH NEW OUTPUT IN DRC CONGO, MEXICO
AND SMALL NATIONS OFFSETS FALL IN CHILE, MYANMAR AND PERU
12/15/2013INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP $48.83, rating raised to Neutral from Underweight, price
target cut to $52 from $55) LARGE ESTIMATED REDUCTION IN YEAR-END
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS LIABILITY PARTLY OFFSETS LESSER PRICE GAINS IN
CONTAINERBOARD
12/15/2013CONTAINERBOARDCONTAINERBOARD 6% CAPACITY GAINS AND SLACK DEMAND GROWTH
ERODE PRICES, BUT VARIOUS COMPANY-SPECIFIC GAINS EVOLVE; IP
PRICE TARGET LOWERED, BUT INVESTMENT RATING UPGRADED.
12/9/2013GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - PRICES AVOID NEW LOWS IN “WORST OF ALL
WORLDS” WITH MUCH NEW BAD NEWS
12/9/2013GOLDCORPGOLDCORP ($21.07 rated Overweight with $32 down from $35 price target) EL
MORRO MODELED ASSUMING A CHINESE SMELTER BUYS A 33.3% STAKE
IN 2016 AT GG’S COST; HIGHER CAPEX & SLOWER OUTPUT AT CERRO
NEGRO IN ARGENTINA
12/9/2013COPPER SMELTER NEW MINE ECONOMICSCOPPER INDUSTRY- - EXPLANATION OF TENDENCY OF SMELTING AND
REFINERS TO PAY A PREMIUM TO BUY INTO A COPPER MINE
12/5/2013RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $53.11, RATING OVERWEIGHT, price target raised to $56 from
$55/share) HIGHER NEAR TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT AND LOWER FUTURE CAP
EX PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER LONG TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT
12/4/2013VALEVALE (VALE $14.98, Neutral, PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $18 from $16/share)
BRAZILIAN TAX SETTLEMENT REDUCES RISKS; POOR CLIMATE TO
PARNTER OR IPO EITHER COAL OR FERTILIZER UNITS
12/3/2013TIMBER ROEFOREST PRODUCTS - - COMPARISON OF THE ROEs OF THREE LARGE
TIMBER COMPANIES FAVORS PLUM CREEK AND DISPARAGES FIBRIA
12/1/2013KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGILF $2.69, not rated) PREVIEW OF POSSIBLE FIRST
QUARTERLY CONFERENCE CALL AROUND DECEMBER 12TH; FOCUS MAY BE
QUICK MEASURES TO RETURN TO 25 FROM 12 TONS PER STOPE PER DAY
12/1/2013PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $5.43, rating Neutral and price target suspended from
$14 previously) BULK SAMPLE TO RECOVER NEAR 5,000 OZ OR 25% ABOVE
TARGET, BUT DEBATE OVER INTERPRETATION OF HIGH GRADE ASSAYS
ONGOING
12/1/2013SPOT MARKETS -SPOT MARKETS - - ROW OCTOBER STEEL OUTPUT UP 4.3% AND ROW SEPT.
DEMAND UP 3.6% Cu, 6% Ni, 10% Pb and 12% Zn WITH COINCIDENT GROWTH
11/26/2013BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $16.39 rated Overweight with $21 down from $23 price target)
BARRICK’S GOLDRUSH PROJECT RETURNS CALCULATED UNDER VARIOUS
SCENARIOS; IMPACTS OF STOCK OFFERING, GOLDRUSH LIKELY DELAYS,
PASCUA LAMA AND OTHER MODELING CHANGES.
11/22/2013THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS (TC $2.77, rating raised to Neutral from Underweight;
price target raised to $2.50/share from $1.50/share) THOMPSON CREEK MINE
CLOSED AFTER 2014; LOWER SHORT TERM MOLYBDENUM AND GOLD
PRICES HURT NEAR TERM EARNINGS WHILE HIGHER LONG TERM GOLD
PRICES INCREASE LONG TERM EARNINGS ESTIMATES
11/19/2013PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER (PCL $43.56, Neutral, price target $44) BUYS
TIMBERLANDS AT HIGH VALUES BASED ON HIGHER OUTPUT PER ACRE
11/19/2013KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGILF $3.05, not rated) CHANGE IN MANAGEMENT
AND $50 MM ROYALTY FINANCING
11/15/2013WEYERHAUSERWEYERHAUSER (WY $29.86 rated Neutral with $34 down from $35 price target)
MERGER WITH TRI POINTE A SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUATION THAN
EXPECTED
11/12/2013RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $52.41, RATING RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT from Underweight,
price target raised to $55 from $23/share) HIGHER COPPER AND IRON ORE PRICES
INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES; ESTIMATED NET DEBT TO FALL
RAPIDLY AFTER 2015 AS PRICES RISE AND CAP EX PROJECTS DONE
11/11/2013PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $60.67 rated Neutral with $64
price target maintained) ACQUISITION OF BOISE BENEFITS-POST 2015
EARNINGS; HIGHER SUSTAINING AND PROJECT CAPEX HURT VALUATION.
11/11/2013ROCKTENNROCKTENN (RKT $95.51 rating raised to Neutral from Underweight; price target cut to
$92 from $106) FAST DEBT AND PENSION PAYDOWNS OFFSET BY HIGHER
CAP EX AND $25/TON HIGHER 2013 CONTAINERBOARD OPERATING COSTS
11/8/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $219.36; rated Neutral; price target cut to $201 from $218)
VOLUME, PRICE, EARNINGS, PRICE TARGET AND RATING ALL CUT; LOWER
CORN PRICES HIT VOLUME AND PRICE AS EXPORTS OFFSET SOFT DEMAND
11/6/2013NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $27.26 rated Overweight with $42 price target maintained)
POTENTIAL SALE OF BARRICK’S 50% SHARE OF KALGOORLIE “SUPERPIT”
MINE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA ESTIMATED AT SEVERAL PRICE SCENARIOS
11/5/2013SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - DEMAND BOOMS IN SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER, BUT PRICES
AND INVENTORIES STABLE
11/1/2013FREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $36.76, rated Overweight, price
target raised from $56 to $59) OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS REVIEWED; CERRO
VERDE REINCORPORATED INTO OUR MODELS; 2014-2016 CAPITAL
EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES INCREASED; 2014 AND 2015 COPPER PRICE
ESTIMATES INCREASED
11/1/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $33.29, rated Overweight with price target $44)
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT AS EACH SEGMENT WEAKENS
11/1/2013MEADWESTVACOMEADWESTVACO ($35.12 rated Underweight with $31 up from $30 price target)
MWV SELLS 501,000 ACRES OF TIMBERLANDS AND SETS UP TWO REAL
ESTATE JOINT VENTURES WITH PLUM CREEK TIMBER
10/29/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $216.22; rated Overweight ; price target cut to $218)
PHOSPHATES SALE REDUCES NPV, APPLYING A 2% RETURN ON CASH
BALANCES, WHERE NOW WE WONDER HOW THE EXTRA CASH IS SPENT
10/29/2013BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $20.25, rated Overweight, price target $23) COPPER
DIVISIONAL ASSET SALE OPPORTUNITIES ESTIMATED AT $4 BIL. AND 3
SELECTED GOLD ASSETS $2.5 BIL. BEFORE TAXES
10/25/2013FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $5.04; rating lowered to NEUTRAL from
OVERWEIGHT; price target same at $5) PRICE APPRECIATION, LOWER
REALIZED IRON ORE PRICE ESTIMATES AND A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED OPERATING COSTS LOWER EARNINGS; “IRONN BRIDGE JV”
10/24/2013CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS CORE SHACKJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and
Mining Conference Core Shack, October 16, 2013
10/24/2013CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS NATURAL RESOURCES HIGHLIGHTS OF “NATURAL RESOURCES TRACK” AT OUR OCTOBER 16TH
CONFERENCE
10/22/2013PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $4.63 rating cut to Neutral and price target suspended
from $14 previously) FIRST STAGE OF BULK SAMPLE RECOVERS ONLY 30%
OF EXPECTED GOLD VALUES, SUGGESTING “AREA OF INFLUENCE” OF 0.5
METER HIGH GRADE VALUES NOT 10M X 35M X 35M
10/21/2013BIG SIX BALANCE SHEETSMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2014, 2015 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, GlencoreXstrata PLC, and Teck)
10/20/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $215.16; rated Overweight ; price target cut to$250 from $310)
DIVIDEND HIKE CAUSES SHARES PRICE TO RISE, BUT COMPETING NEW
NITROGEN PROJECTS MAKE PROGRESS; PRICE TARGET CUT TO $233
10/17/2013CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS GOLD TRACKHIGHLIGHTS OF “GOLD TRACK” AT OUR OCTOBER 16TH CONFERENCE
10/14/2013VALEVALE (VALE $15.51, Neutral, PRICE TARGET $16) VALE AND GLENCORE
XSTRATA PLC NICKEL DIVISIONAL COOPERATION DISCUSSIONS
10/11/2013PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $4.93; rated Overweight with $14 down from $16 price
target) SIMULATION ERASING 9.4 OF PRIOR 30.4 MMT RESOURCES, ERASING
5.8 OF PRIOR 13.1 MM OZ GOLD AND USING SAME PRIOR $662 MM CAP EX
10/10/2013THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS (TC $3.24, rating remains at UNDERWEIGHT; price
target remains $1.50/share) SITE VISIT TO MOUNT MILLIGAN
10/7/2013RELATIVE RETURNSMETALS INDUSTRY- -REVERSALS IN “HURDLE” RATES OF RETURN
10/6/2013PARAMOUNT GOLD AND SILVERPARAMOUNT GOLD AND SILVER (PZG $1.28 RATED OVERWEIGHT; $1.75
PRICE TARGET) FINANCIAL MODELS BUILT ASSUMING PZG ABLE TO RAISE
ONLY $30 MM FOR A $25 MM SAN FRANCISCO 5,000 mtpd HEAP LEACH IN
2016 TO RETAIN EARNINGS TO BUILD 500 mtpd DON ESE UNDERGROUND
10/2/2013GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, $5.51; RATED UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE
TARGET RAISED TO USD $4 from USD $2) SALE OF LAS BAMBAS MINE CUTS
DEBT 1/10TH AND CAPITAL EX AND REDUCES VOLATILITY
9/30/2013TOREX GOLDTOREX GOLD (TORXF $1.46, not rated) FIELD VISIT SEPTEMBER 26TH
9/30/2013METALS INDUSTRIESMETALS INDUSTRIES - - SIGNS OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND/OR
FUNDAMENTAL TURNAROUNDS
9/30/2013SILVERCREST MINESSILVERCREST MINES (SLVC $1.80, not rated) COMMENTS FROM VISIT TO THE
SANTA ELENA MINE IN SONORA, MEXICO
9/27/2013WEYERHAUSERWEYERHAUSER (WY $28.80 rated Neutral with $35 price target) NOTES FROM
SEPTEMBER 24, 2013 TOUR OF WY’S LONGVIEW TIMBERLANDS, LONGVIEW
EXPORT PORT, AND LONGVIEW SAW MILL IN WASHINGTON.
9/26/2013VALEVALE (VALE $16.05, Neutral, PRICE TARGET CUT TO $16 from $21/share) VALE
MODELS DEDUCT $10 BIL. CASH OUTLAY FOR TAX SETTLEMENT AND
LATE-DECADE DEBT PAYDOWNS; VALE SEPT. 11-12 TRIP EMPHASIZES
COPPER OPPORTUNITIES NEAR CARAJAS
9/25/2013GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - HIGHLIGHTS OF DENVER GOLD SHOW
9/23/2013SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - INVENTORIES OTHER THAN NICKEL INVENTORIES FALL
LITTLE BY LITTLE
9/21/2013GOLD INDSUTRYGOLD INDSUTRY - - AVERAGE SECOND-QUARTER 2013 PRETAX
BREAKEVEN COST FOR 13 OF WORLD’S LARGEST GOLD COMPANIES
ESTIMATED AT $1,165/OZ, UP $25/OZ FROM THE FIRST-QUARTER OF 2013.
9/17/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $30.95, rated Overweight with price target $44)
TUNGSTEN BUSINESS SOLD FOR 3.56 TIMES OUR ESTIMATED VALUATION
9/17/2013ALCOAALCOA (AA $8.16, rated Neutral, Price Target cut from $8 to $7) LOWER
ESTIMATED 2014 THROUGH 2017 LME ALUMINUM INGOT PRICES LOWER
EARNINGS ESTIMATES; NEW AUTO SHEET CAPACITY IN TENNESSEE
8/30/2013CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $7.99, rating remains at Neutral; price target raised to
$11/share from $10/share) LOWER POWER COSTS STRENGTHEN LONG TERM
EARNINGS AND HELP OFFSET LOWER SHORT TERM ALUMINUM PRICES
8/28/2013SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - AS MANY DIVIDENDS RISE AS FALL; RALLIES OFF LOWS
8/28/2013TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES ($18.29 rated Overweight with $29 price target maintained)
MINE STARTUP UNDERWAY WITH PUBLIC SUPPORT; EARNINGS ESTIMATES
AND NPV LOWERED DUE TO LOWER ORE GRADES, HIGHER DEPRECIATION
AND MORE ROYALTIES PARTLY OFFSET BY THROUGHPUT AND LOWER
SUSTAINING CAPEX.
8/28/2013ALUMINA LTD. ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $3.66, RATING UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET $3.00);
LOWER ESTIMATED 2013 ALUMINA AND ALUMINUM OUTPUT OFFSET BY
LOWER ESTIMATED 2013 OPERATING COSTS; 2014-2017 LME ALUMINUM
INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES LOWERED
8/28/2013KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGILF $4.403, not rated) FAVORABLE IMPLICATIONS
OF EXPANSION PROGRAM; INCORPORATED INTO OUR RESEARCH
COVERAGE WITHOUT AN INVESTMENT RATING
8/26/2013OSISKOOSISKO (OSKFF $5.35; not rated) FAVORABLE COMMENTS FROM VISIT TO
CANADIAN MALARCTIC MINE IN QUEBEC ON AUGUST 23RD
8/26/2013GOLD COSTSGOLD INDUSTRY - - COST ESCALATIONS CONTINUE IN EASTERN CANADA
8/24/2013BRIGUS GOLDBRIGUS GOLD (BRD $0.58, not rated) EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
WHOMEVER CHOOSES TO FUND THEM
8/24/2013HECLA MINING HECLA MINING (HL $3.84, not rated) VISIT TO QUEBEC FORMER “AURIZON
MINES” DIVISION FOCUS ON “HEVA” RESOURCE UPDATE
8/18/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $187.84; rated Overweight ; price target $310) REVIEW OF
COMPETING NEW NITROGEN PROJECTS; NITROGEN EXPORTS TO MOVE
VOLUMES IN ALL SEASONS; CORN PRICES AND FERTILIZER PRICES LOWER
8/16/2013FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $3.76; RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM
UNDERWEIGHT; price target raised from $4 to $5) HIGHER NEAR TERM IRON
ORE PRICES GENERATE $5 BIL. XTRA CASH FLOW TO IMPROVE CREDIT
8/16/2013CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - SKEPTICAL THAT APRIL 1ST $50/T
CONTAINERBOARD AND MAY 1ST 10% OR $100/T BOX PRICES LAST
8/8/2013BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $16.99 rated Overweight with $20 down from $25 price target)
UPDATED FINANCIAL MODELS AFTER AUGUST 1ST CHARGES, TWO-YEAR
PASCUA DELAY AND OTHER UPDATES. HIGHER 2016 ONWARD GOLD PRICE
ESTIMATES INCLUDED
8/8/2013ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $11.26, rated NEUTRAL and price target cut to
$11/share from $21/share) PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO LOWER CU, NI AND MET
COAL PRICES, LOWER IRON ORE OUTPUT AND LOWER PT EARNINGS AND
INCLUSION OF “OTHER LIABILITIES” TO CUT ESTIMATED BREAK-UP VALUE
8/5/2013SPOTMARKETSEXCEPT NICKEL, CHINESE AND OTHER CONSUMERS BEGIN TO RESTOCK
8/4/2013MOSAIC CORP.MOSAIC CORP. (MOS $40.98, rated Underweight with $30 price target) PUTTING
$3.7 BILLION IN CASH AND UNDERLEVERED BALANCE SHEET TO WORK
8/2/2013NUCORNUCOR (NUE $46.85, rated Underweight target cut to $28 from $30) LOWER LONG
TERM STEEL PRICE ESTIMATES HURT FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL
7/31/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $26.09, rated Overweight with price target $44)
MERCHANT OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL ROLLING TIME AFTER 2015 TO HOTROLL
“ADVANCED HIGH STRENGTH CARBON STEELS” FOR AUTOS
7/31/2013NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF $32.18 rated Neutral with $32 down from $35 price target)
HIGHER OPERATING COSTS DUE TO WAX AND RESIN COST PRESSURE
HURT EBITDA MARGINS; HOUSING STARTS SLOW IN JUNE COMPARED
WHERE HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD DAMPEN HOUSING RECOVERY
7/27/2013IMPAIRMENTSMETALS - - WRITEDOWNS BREACHING $200 BILLION TOTAL SINCE 2008
7/25/2013SPOTMARKETSWAITING FOR PRODUCTION AND PERMANENT CAPACITY CUTS IN
ALUMINUM, ALUMINA, STEEL, IRON ORE, COPPER AND NICKEL
7/24/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $26.09, rated Overweight with price target $44)
SHORTFALLS IN TITANIUM AND HIGH NICKEL ALLOYS PARTLY OFFSET BY
LOWER INTEREST EXPENSE, PROFIT-SHARING AND OTHER EXPENSES AND
LOSS AVOIDANCES IN FLAT-ROLLED AND ENGINEERED PRODUCTS
7/23/2013GOLD INDUSTRY -GOLD INDUSTRY - - JULIAN ROBERTSON’S COMMENTS ON QE3
7/23/2013FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS - - DOWNGRADE OF INVESTMENT RATINGS DUE TO
STRONGER DOLLAR, HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND DEMAND WORRIES
7/19/2013ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANFGF $12.05, RATING RAISED TO NEUTRAL, Price
Target RAISED to $11/share from $9/US ADS share) ACQUISITION OF 40% OF
HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT LOWERS FUTURE COSTS;
INCREMENTAL EXPANSION, HIGHER PRODUCTION AT EL TESORO,
ESPERANZA, and LOS PELAMBRES RAISE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
7/19/2013NONFERROUS WAREHOUSESMETALS INDUSTRY - - PRESSURES TO UNWIND WAREHOUSING PRACTICES
TO MOBILIZE OR “FREE UP”
7/19/2013GOLD GOLD - - LENGTH OF BEAR MARKET, DECLINING VELOCITY OF MONEY,
SPECIFIC MODEL CHANGES, PRICE OUTLOOK AND COMPANY ISSUES
7/18/2013BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $15.89 rated Overweight with $25 price target) “QUALITY
BARRICK” TO EMERGE A STREAMLINED COMPANY AFTER EXIT FROM
BARRICK ENERGY, TANZANIA, AUSTRALIA AND LUMWANA
7/17/2013NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $28.03 rated Overweight with $42 price target maintained)
POTENTIAL SALE OF BARRICK’S 50% SHARE OF KALGOORLIE “SUPERPIT”
MINE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA ESTIMATED AT $889 MM
7/14/2013ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $12.75 rated Overweight with $23 up from $18 price
target) HIGHER GOLD PRICES DRIVE HIGHER NPV/SHARE. ANGLOGOLD
ASHANTI’S CASH BALANCE TURNS NEGATIVE AT YEAR END 2014 AT
$1,200/OZ GOLD
7/14/2013ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $3.89, RATING UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET $3.00);
LOWER ESTIMATED ALUMINA PRODUCTION AND 2013 LME ALUMINUM
INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS ESTIMATES
7/12/2013ALCOAALCOA (AA $8.10, rated Neutral, Price Target cut from $10 to $8) WE CUT OUR
MIDWEST PREMIUM ESTIMATES, PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS
ESTIMATES; “STRESS TEST” $0.75/LB LME DEDUCTS $1 BIL. PER YEAR
7/9/2013NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $27.07 rated Overweight with $42 up from $30 price
target) WRITE-DOWNS OF CONGA, OTHER AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND AND
ORE STOCKPILES ANTICIPATED IN 2013. HIGHER 2016 ONWARDS GOLD
PRICE ESTIMATES INCREASE NEM NPV/SHARE SIGNIFICANTLY.
7/2/2013STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SLOW GROWTH, 80% GLOBAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION
AND TOUGH COMPETITON
7/2/2013U.S. STEEL U.S. STEEL (X $18.04; Rating Neutral; Price target cut to $18 from $44) PRICE/COST
DEFLATION, SLOW GROWTH AND EXCESS CAPACITY
7/1/2013FREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $28.27, rated Overweight, price
target raised from $53 to $56) EXPECTATIONS IMPLICIT IN SHARE PRICE
7/1/2013AGNICO-EAGLE MINESAGNICO-EAGLE MINES (AEM $28.61 rated Overweight; $43 up from $38 price
target) HIGHER 2016 AND BEYOND GOLD PRICES BENEFIT TO AEM’S
VALUATION; ASSUME MELIADINE PROJECT DELAYED; STRESS TEST AEM
CAN LIVE WITHIN FREE CASH FLOW AT $1,200/OZ BUT NOT $1,000/OZ GOLD.
7/1/2013FREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMoRAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $27.61, rated Overweight, price
target raised from $53 to $56) ASSET SALES AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
REDUCTIONS SHOULD FUEL REDUCTION IN $17.5 BILLION NET DEBT;
IMPRESSIONS FROM NYC INVESTOR DAY ON JUNE 24, 2013
6/28/2013DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DULMF U.S. $1.30, rated Neutral and price target “suspended”)
BOND OFFERING AND FEASIBILITY STUDY OUTLOOK ISSUES
6/27/2013GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $22.35, rated Overweight, price target maintained at $36) UPDATED
DETAILED SIMULATIONS FOCUS ON POLICY OPTIONS AS METALS PRICES
FALL; WE ESTIMATE HIGHER GOLD PRICES IN 2016 AND BEYOND
6/27/2013GOLD INDUSTRY GG ACQUIRERGOLD INDUSTRY - - STUDY OF GOLDCORP (GG $22.35, rated Overweight, Target
$36) AS A POTENTIAL ACQUIRER
6/25/2013GENERAL MOLY INC.GENERAL MOLY INC. (GMO $1.84, Rating Maintained at UNDERWEIGHT,
Price Target Lowered to $1 from $2); LOWER COPPER AND MOLYBDENUM
PRICE ESTIMATES HURT FUTURE CASH FLOW ESTIMATES;
ALTERNATIVE FINANCING INCORPORATED INTO MODELS
6/23/2013SPOTMARKETSLOW PRICE LEVELS, HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND DEMAND
UNCERTAINTY TO FORCE OUTPUT CUTS
6/21/2013CONTAINERBOARD MARKETCONTAINERBOARD - - MARKET OVERVIEW AND KAPSTONE’S ACQUISITION
OF LONGVIEW FIBER
6/20/2013WEYERHAUESERWEYERHAUESER ($27.67 rated Overweight with $35 price target) WY
HOMEBUILDING SEGMENT PUT ON SALE AS WY LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE
SHAREHOLDER VALUE
6/18/2013CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $10.06, rating raised to Neutral from Underweight;
price target raised to $10/share from $4/share) SEBREE, KY SMELTER BUYOUT
TERMS, HIGHER ESTIMATED MIDWEST PREMIUMS AND INCLUSION OF
PURITY PREMIUMS FOR HAWESVILLE INCREASES EARNINGS ESTIMATES
6/16/2013SPOTMARKETSALL INDICATORS POINT TO SLOWDOWN AS EVEN WOOD, FARM AND
FERTILIZERS SLOW, WHILE METALS EXCHANGE INVENTORIES FALL
6/13/2013PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $8.17 rated Overweight with $16 down from $33 price)
FEASIBILITY STUDY RESULTS SHOW HIGHER CAPEX, HIGHER OPEX,
HIGHER TAXES, LOWER RECOVERY RATES, AND LOWER ORE GRADES
6/13/2013GLENCOREXSTRATA PLCGLENCOREXSTRATA PLC (GLCNF, $4.78; RATED UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE
TARGET REMAINS AT USD $2.00) LOWER EFFECTIVE TAX RATES ARE
OFFSET BY A HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE ON CASH FLOWS; PRODUCTION
MODELS REBUILT
6/12/2013POLYMET MININGPOLYMET MINING (PLM $0.87, rated Neutral) PRICE TARGET CUT FROM $3 TO
$1.50 AS LOWER LONG TERM COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES AND DILUTION
LOWER SHAREHOLDER VALUE
6/10/2013ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $54.03 rated Overweight with $72 price target)
FRANCO NEVADA (FNV: $41.30 rated Overweight with $44 price target)
SILVER WHEATON (SLW: $23.58 rated Overweight with $29 price target)
6/10/2013RATINGS CHANGESOVERVIEW - - “SIGNIFICANT SLOWDOWN,” RECESSION AND “HYPER-GOLD”
6/2/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $27.57, rated Overweight with price target $44)
BREAKUP VALUES VERSUS DCF VALUATIONS COMPARED; ESTIMATES CUT
5/31/2013FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $31.39, rated Overweight, price
target $53) NEW BOARD MEMBERS REINFORCE CONSIDATION OF OIL AND
GAS OPPORTUNITIES, WHICH MAY BE SUPERIOR IN MANY RESPECTS
5/30/2013FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $31.06, rated Overweight, price
target raised from $48 to $53) HIGHER ESTIMATED NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE
OIL PRICES SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOWER ESTIMATED MOLYBDENUM
PRICES
5/30/2013COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND MINIATURIZATION DOWN 3.6%, WORLD
MINE OUTPUT UP “ONLY” 7.2% AS CHINESE MINES SLOW, REFINED OUTPUT
UP 5.2% AND 252,700 t 1Q REFINED OUTPUT SURPLUS PER WBMS MAY 22ND
5/23/2013BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $67.46, rated Neutral, price target lowered to $86 from $88)
LOWER ESTIMATED COPPER AND NICKEL PRICES HURT EARNINGS
ESTIMATES, NPV AND PRICE TARGET MORE THAN THE BENEFITS OF
HIGHER LONG TERM NATURAL GAS AND OIL PRICE ESTIMATES AND OIL
AND GAS OUTPUT
5/22/2013FRANCO-NEVADAFRANCO-NEVADA (FNV $41.24, rated Neutral, Price Target of $44 up from $43)
PRETIUM BRUCEJACK 1.2% ROYALTY VERY ENCOURAGING; “DEAL FLOW”
MAY SHIFT TO KEEPING MINES OPEN AS NEW MINES DRY UP; MOSTLY
OFFSETTING CHANGES TO FNV UNDERLYING DYNAMICS.
5/20/2013MEADWESTVACOMEADWESTVACO (MWV: $35.77, Rating cut to Underweight from Neutral with $30
up from $29 price target) HIGHER LONG TERM OPERATING MARGIN
ESTIMATES IN THE INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT AND HIGHER PER ACRE LAND
VALUE ESTIMATES ARE MORE THAN OFFSET BY HIGHER CAPEX, LAND
SALES CASH FLOW, AND OTHER DEBT-LIKE LIABILITIES
5/16/2013VALEVALE (VALE $15.58, Neutral, PRICE TARGET CUT TO $21 from $25/share) GOOD
COST DYNAMICS AND FIRMER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET BY TAX CASE,
LOWER ESTIMATED CU AND NI PRICES AND LESS FUTURE POTASH OUTPUT
5/15/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $192.52; rated Overweight ; price target cut to $310 from $360)
LONG-TERM 2018-20 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT 20% OWING TO CAPACITY
ADDITIONS; SPRING NITROGEN PRICES DO NOT FALL AS FEARED;
BUYBACKS LARGER THAN EXPECTED
5/14/2013GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - FIRST QUARTER 2013 PRETAX AND DIRECT CASH
COSTS PER OUNCE OF GOLD COMPARED WITH THE FIRST QUARTER 2012
FOR FOURTEEN LARGE CAP GOLD COMPANIES.
5/14/2013GOLD STRONG US $$ BLUNTED BY RISING COSTGOLD INDUSTRY – GOLD PRICES AND SHARES SUPPORTED BY RISING
COSTS EVEN WITH A U.S. DOLLAR BULL CURRENCY TREND; STABILIZING
TRENDS AS GOLD “BUILDS A BASE”
5/10/2013HUDBAY MINERALS HUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $8.22; Rating remains at Underweight; Price Target
LOWERED from $12/share to $4/share) LOWER LME COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES
LOWER ESTIMATED EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
5/6/2013SPOTMARKETSALUMINUM, LEAD AND ZINC INVENTORIES FALL RAPIDLY IN APRIL AS
NICKEL, COPPER, STEEL, WOOD, CONTAINERBOARD OR NITROGEN
FERTILIZER MARKETS SOFTEN
5/6/2013NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $33.07 rated Neutral with $30 down from $39 price target)
REMOVAL OF SUBIKA UNDERGROUND, TANAMI SHAFT, & PHOENIX MILL
EXPANSION AND 1.5% HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE TO 9.5% DUE TO COUNTRY
RISK IN SURINAME, GHANA, AND INDONESIA HURT VALUATION
5/5/2013ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANFGF $14.20, RATING UNDERWEIGHT, Price Target
Cut to $9/share from $13/US ADS share) LOWER COPPER AND MOLY PRICE
ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS; RE-INTRODUCTION OF ANTUCOYA
4/30/2013METALS TIGHTER STANDARDS METALS - - EVALUATION AND “DUE DILIGENCE” RIGOR AT 16%-19%
DISCOUNT RATES AS WORLD ECONOMY SLOWS OR OVERSUPPLY GROWS
4/30/2013PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $7.10 rated Overweight with $33 down from $37 price)
PRICE TARGET CUT TO $33 FROM $37 DUE TO EQUITY ISSUANCE
4/25/2013DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS $68.40 rated Neutral from Overweight with $74 down from $94 price
target) DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT DUE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED END MARKET DECAY AND BETTER ALTERNATIVES. REMOVAL
OF 2014-2016 SHARE REPURCHASES HURTS NPV AND EPS ESTIMATES.
4/25/2013WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $31.XX) INVESTMENT RATING CUT TO
NEUTRAL OWING TO PRICE APPRECIATION AND BUSINESS RISKS
4/24/2013ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $19.35 rated Neutral with $18 from $24 price target)
HIGHER SOUTH AFRICAN OPERATING COSTS, MUCH LOWER 2013 OUTPUT
AND HIGHER COST ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET BY 2012 ACQUISITIONS OF
MINE WASTE SOLUTIONS AND 50% OF CRIXAS “SERRO GRANDE”
4/24/2013SME PAPERThis paper will be given to the Society of Mining Engineers “Current Trends in Mining
Finance” program at 11 a.m. on April 29, 2013 at the City University of New York
(CUNY) Graduate Center at 34th Street and Fifth Avenue. We provide it for your
convenience here.
4/18/2013ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $3.90, RATING LOWERED FROM NEUTRAL TO
UNDERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET LOWERED FROM $4.00 TO $3.00); LOWER
ESTIMATED NEAR TERM LME ALUMINUM PRICES HURT EARNINGS;
ESTIMATED DEBT ISSUANCE TO FUND POTENTIAL CASH SHORTFALL
DESPITE RECENT CHINESE PRIVATE PLACEMENT
4/18/2013DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS $74.26 rated Overweight with $94 down from $111 price target)
HIGHER NATURAL GAS PRICES TRIM MARGINS AND LONG-TERM
LIABILITIES A DRAG ON VALUATION, PARTLY OFFSET BY NBSK AND NBHK
PULP PRICES UP AS FLUFF PULP PRICES FLAT AND WHITE PAPER DOWN
4/16/2013GOLD MINE COST SUPPORT GOLD INDUSTRY: COST-BASED TRADING RANGE OF $1,200 TO $1,500 PER
OZ CORRESPONDS TO $300 TO $400 RANGE IN 1982-2002 ERA
4/15/2013GOLD FOLLOWUPGOLD INDUSTRY: SENSITIVITY ANALYSES AS PRICES CHANGE
4/12/2013GOLD UPGRADESGOLD INDUSTRY: INVESTMENT RATING INCREASES OWING TO UPSIDES
TO GOLD AND SILVER PRICES AND LARGE SHARE PRICE DECLINES IN
RISING STOCK MARKET
4/12/2013COPPER MARGINAL COSTSCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DISCUSSION OF “COST CURVES” AND COST-BASED
PRICE FLOORS AS CURRENCIES WEAKEN AND MINE PLANS DEFER COSTS
4/12/2013RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $47.38, Underweight, price target lowered to $28/share from
$30/share) LOWER ALUMINUM PRICES AND UTAH PIT WALL SLIDE
NEGATIVES VERSUS FIRMER THAN EXPECTED IRON ORE
4/12/2013ROCKTENNROCKTENN (RKT $88.80 rated Overweight with $106 down from $126 price target)
HIGHER NATURAL GAS INPUT COSTS, REMOVAL OF SECOND PRICE HIKE,
AND HIGHER 2015 ONWARDS CAPEX TO MAINTAIN OPERATING MARGINS
HURT VALUATION PARTLY OFFSET BY FULLER CURRENT BOX PRICE HIKE.
4/11/2013CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $7.44, rating lowered to Underweight from Neutral;
price target lowered to $4/share from $5/share) LOWER ESTIMATED NEAR TERM
LME ALUMINUM INGOT PRICES LOWER ESTIMATED EARNINGS
4/10/2013ALCOAALCOA (AA $8.39, rated Neutral, Price Target cut from $14 to $10) DESPITE GOOD
RESULTS, WE CUT OUR LME ALUMINUM PRICE, PRICE TARGET AND
EARNINGS ESTIMATES DUE TO EXCESS CHINESE OUTPUT
4/10/2013INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP $47.32 rated Overweight with $55 down from $61 price
target) HIGHER NATURAL GAS PRICES AND REMOVAL OF SECOND PRICE
HIKE LOWERS LONG TERM OPERATING MARGINS. PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
MORE FULL REALIZATION OF CURRENT CORRUGATED PRICE HIKE
4/8/2013SPOTMARKETSAGGRESSIVE CHINESE EXCESS OUTPUT DRIVES OVERSUPPLY AND RISING
STOCKPILES; WOOD PRICES RISING TOWARDS 2004 DAILY RECORDS
LIKELY TO EXCEED 2004 ANNUAL AVERAGES AND CONTAINERBOARD
OPERATES NEAR 97%
4/5/2013THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS (TC $2.85, rating cut to Underweight from NEUTRAL;
price target cut from $5/share to $1.5/share) RATING AND EARNINGS CUT WITH
LOWER COPPER AND MOLY PRICES; RELOOK AT AUGUST 2009 STUDY
4/4/2013AGNICO-EAGLE MINESAGNICO-EAGLE MINES (AEM $37.76; rated Neutral with $36 from $40 target)
TARACHI REMOVED, MELIADINE ONE YEAR PUSHBACK, HIGHER CAPEX,
LOWER COPPER, AND HIGHER OP EX PARTLY OFFSET BY KITTILA
EXPANSION, HIGHER MEADOWBANK OUTPUT, LOWER CASH TAX IN NPV
4/3/2013CONF. HIGHLIGHTS John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and
Mining Conference Core Shack, March 28, 2013
4/3/2013CONF. HIGHLIGHTS METALS CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS - - GOLD TRACT
3/31/2013CONF. HIGHLIGHTS CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS – NATURAL RESOURCES TRACT
3/27/2013BIG SIX NET DEBTMETALS - - COMPARISON OF BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE
DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES IN OUR COVERAGE UNIVERSE (BHP, Rio
Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore, Teck, and Vale)
3/22/2013GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY: BARRICK GOLD, NEWMONT MINING AND GOLDCORP
PRICE TARGETS CUT BY $13, $8 AND $1 PER SHARE, RESPECTIVELY, DUE
TO LOWER COPPER PRICES AND UPDATED DEBT, CAP EX, RECLMATION,
OUTPUT, COSTS AND CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS
3/22/2013MERCATOR MINERALSMERCATOR MINERALS (MLKKF $.377, rating lowered to UNDERWEIGHT from
NEUTRAL) PRICE TARGET CUT FROM $0.30 to $0.09 DUE TO LOWER
MINERAL PARK 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES and LOWER ESTIMATED
COPPER & MOLY PRICES; EL CRESTON PROJECT REMOVED FROM MODELS
3/22/2013COPPER & WEEKLY SHORTMETALS - - JANUARY COPPER MINE OUTPUT UP 12.6% AS DEMAND FALLS
3.4%; COPPER EXCHANGE INVENTORIES RISE EVERY DAY THROUGH
MARCH SEASONAL PEAK
3/19/2013GOLD PRIVATE INV. D AND CENTRAL BANKS REGIONALLYGOLD INDUSTRY - - REGIONAL SUBDIVISION OF PAST “PRIVATE
INVESTOR” AND CENTRAL BANK INVESTMENT DEMANDS
3/19/2013GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLCGLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLC (GLCNF, $5.53; RATED UNDERWEIGHT;
PRICE TARGET REDUCED TO USD $2.00 FROM USD $3.00) LOWER COPPER
PRICE ESTIMATES REDUCE EARNINGS; ESTIMATED $10 BILLION OR 5 BIL.
SHARE RIGHTS ISSUE MODELED AT $2/SHARE TO REPAY DEBT
3/18/2013METALS CAP EXMINING INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF BULK TONNAGE MINE CAP EX
3/14/2013FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $33.16, rated Overweight, price
target cut from $56 to $48) LOWER ESTIMATED COPPER PRICES CUT
ESTIMATED EARNINGS, CASH FLOW & PACE OF DEBT REPAYMENTS;
“PERCENTAGE USA” EARNINGS ANALYZED AT COPPER PRICE SCENARIOS
3/8/2013WEEKLY SHORTMETALS - - COPPER EXCHANGE INVENTORIES AT TEN YEAR HIGH RISING
AT PACE TO SET NEW ALL-TIME RECORD IN EARLY JULY
3/7/2013METALS IMPAIRMENTSMETALS - - “PART TWO” IMPAIRMENTS NEAR $69.3 BILLION OR LARGELY
THE SIZE OF DIVIDEND & BUYBACK RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS
3/7/2013PDACMETALS - - COMMENTS FROM PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS
ASSOCIATION OF CANADA CONFERENCE
3/2/2013WEEKLY SHORTMETALS - - OVERSUPPLY EVIDENCE AT SEASONAL PEAK IN “NIGHTMARE”
SORT OF SCENARIO
3/1/2013CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY OLIGOPOLY STRENTH SEEN IN $50/TON
BOARD AND BOX PRICE HIKE THIS WEEK; PRICE TARGETS RAISED TO $126
FROM $92 FOR RKT, $64 FROM $47 FOR PKG AND $61 FROM 47 FOR IP
3/1/2013GOLD DEMANDGOLD DEMAND-SUPPLY AND PRICE OUTLOOK WITH DISINVESTMENT
2/27/2013COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY: REVIEW OF SECONDARY SCRAP AND MINE OPERATING
COST POSSIBLE COST-BASED PRICE FLOORS
2/26/2013SPOTMARKETSMETALS DATA UNIFORMLY POOR DUE TO EXCESS OUTPUT; WOOD PRICES
RISING TOWARDS 2004 RECORDS AND CONTAINERBOARD OPERATES AT
97.1% IN JAN. AND 95.2% OPERATING RATE IN DEC.
2/25/2013BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $74.80, rated Neutral, price target cut to $88 from $107) NET
DEBT-EQUIV. RISES $6.8 BILLION IN DECEMBER HALF TO NET $39.6 BILLION
2/21/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $203.93, rated Overweight, $360 price target) - -ESTIMATES
SHAVED DUE TO LOWER UREA PRICE REALIZED AT $291/T IN 4Q
2/21/2013COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEC. DAILY WORLD MINE OUTPUT 17% > JAN. 2012
2/21/2013ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANFGF $17.30, RATING REMAINS AT
UNDERWEIGHT, Price Target Lowered to $13/share from $16/US ADS share)
LOWER PRICE TARGET REFLECTS 2ND COPPER PRICE OUTLOOK CUT,
LOWER PROVISIONAL PRICING ADJUSTMENT ESTIMATES; HIGHER
NEAR TERM OPERATING COSTS AT MICHILLA
2/19/2013NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF $30.55 rated Neutral with $35 up from $23 price target)
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER NEAR TERM OSB PRICE REALIZATION ESTIMATES
AND A $10 INCREASE IN OUR LONG TERM OSB REALIZATION PRICE DRIVES
$12 HIGHER PRICE TARGET
2/19/2013LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC (LPX $21.79 rated Neutral with $20 up from $19 price target)
HIGHER OSB PRICES AND MORE LENIENT TREATMENT OF TAXES IN DCF
ANALYSIS MOSTLY OFFSET LOWER OPERATING MARGIN GROWTH IN
LPX’S SIDING SEGMENT
2/18/2013METALS IMPAIRMENTSMETALS - - 15 COMPANIES REPORT IMPAIRMENTS WHILE ANOTHER 8 OR
SO HAVE NOT YET REPORTED RESULTS
2/15/2013ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $15.49, rated NEUTRAL and price target reduced to
$21/share from $23/share) PLATINUM EARNINGS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED;
COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES REDUCED; ANALYSIS OF BREAK-UP VALUE
2/12/2013SPOTMARKETSCOPPER INVENTORIES RISING AS SPRING APPROACHES; STEEL SCRAP
FALLS AT SEASONAL PEAK; WOOD PRICES APPROACH 2004 RECORDS
2/11/2013DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS $76.35 rated Overweight with $111 down from $130 price target)
HIGHER CAPEX ESTIMATES AS DOMTAR INVESTS IN PERSONAL CARE
SEGMENT CROWD OUT SHARE REPURCHASES COMBINED WITH LOWER,
MORE CONSERVATIVE, LONG TERM PRICING FOR PULP AND PAPER
SEGMENT AS DOMESTIC UFS DEMAND DECLINES AT 3%-4% PER YEAR.
2/8/2013TECKTECK (TCK $33.86, Underweight; price target raised to $29 from $27) CORRECTION
FOR OVERSTATEMENT OF ESTIMATED COAL MINE WATER MANAGEMENT
COSTS
2/7/2013TECK TECK (TCK $34.50, Underweight; price target cut to $27 from $47) LOWER COAL
PRICE FORECASTS ALONG WITH HIGHER ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
BEGINNING IN 2015 LOWER EARNINGS
2/6/2013VALEVALE (VALE $20.19, Rating raised to Neutral from Underweight; price target raised to
$25 from $22) ANALYSIS OF GOLD STREAM SALE TO SILVER WHEATON
(SLW, $36.79); HIGHER 2013 ESTIMATED IRON ORE PRICES AND FUTURE
EXPANSIONS HELP TO INCREASE EARNINGS AND REDUCE NET DEBT
2/6/2013SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON (SLW $36.79; rated Underweight, price target $21) ACQUISTION
OF GOLD STREAMS FROM VALE HAS AN IRR OF 5.35% USING OUR BASE
CASE ASSUMPTIONS; SHORT OF OUR DISCOUNT RATE ESTIMATE OF 7.5%.
2/5/2013BARRICKBARRICK (ABX $32.35, Neutral rating; price target decreased to $34 from $36)
PREVIEW OF POSSIBLE FEBRUARY 14TH DISCLOSURES; MODELS ADJUSTED
FOR HIGHER AU & AG PRICES AND LOWER AFRICAN OUTPUTS
2/1/2013INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP $42.35 rated Overweight with $47 price target
maintained) HIGHER LONG TERM CONTAINERBOARD PRICING AND MARGINS
MOSTLY OFFSET BY LOWER PRICES FOR PRINTING PAPERS, CONSUMER
PACKAGING AND EMPLOYEE BENEFITS
2/1/2013RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $57.88, rating remains UNDERWEIGHT, price target cut to $36 from
$39) LOWER COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES HURT EARNINGS AND NPV; SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ESTIMATED IRON ORE PRODUCTION HELPS OFFSET
1/31/2013DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DULMF U.S. $2.32, rated Neutral and price target “suspended”)
DECEMBER 4TH RESOURCE STATEMENT ADDS DOUBTS ABOUT RECOVERY
RATES
1/30/2013WEYERHAUSERWEYERHAUSER (WY $29.89 rated Overweight with $35 up from $30 price target)
HIGHER PER ACRE TIMBERLANDS VALUE ESTIMATES BENEFIT
VALUATION; MORE AGGRESSIVE DEBT REPAYMENT AND ESTIMATED
FUTURE SOUTHERN TIMERLANDS ACQUISITIONS BENEFIT EARNINGS
1/28/2013AEMAEM (AEM $45.79 raised to Neutral from Underweight with $40 price target) RATING
RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERWEIGHT DUE TO SHARE PRICE
DECLINE; POTENTIAL FOR UPWARD REVISIONS AS GOLD AND OTHER
PRICES > OUR LONG-TERM ESTIMATES AND WITH EXPLORATION
1/28/2013FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $34.66, rated Overweight, price
target remains at $56/share) INCLUSION OF PXP/MMR ACQUISITION IN OUR
FINANCIAL MODELS; COPPER AND MOLY PRICES LOWERED; 2017 and 2018
GRASBERG PRODUCTION ESTIMATES INCREASED
1/24/2013ROCKTENNROCKTENN (RKT $79.66 rated Overweight with $92 up from $81 price target)
DECEMBER 2012 CONTAINERBOARD OPERATING RATE OF 95.2% IS THE
HIGHEST DECEMBER LEVEL SINCE 2007 AS PRICES ROSE DESPITE CHEAP
GAS AND SCRAP; CONSERVATIVE MODELS SUBDUE FORECASTS
1/24/2013ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $27.37, rated Overweight with price target cut to
$36 from $80) ROAD MAP TO 2013, 2014 AND 2015 GAINS CLEARER WITH LOSS
AVOIDED IN FOURTH-QUARTER; PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $44 FROM $36
1/22/2013PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $38.81 rated Overweight with
$47 up from $39 price target) HIGHER LONG TERM CONTAINERBOARD PRICE
REALIZATIONS DRIVE VALUATION HIGHER, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
HIGHER OPERATING COSTS AND CAPEX.
1/22/2013ALCOAALCOA (AA $9.20, rating NEUTRAL; PRICE TARGET raised to $14/share) HIGH
PRICING PREMIUMS HELPS OFFSET WEAK ALUMINUM MARKET
CONDITIONS
1/17/2013GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $37.48, rated underweight with price target $29 up from $26)
LOWER TAX BURDEN WITH HIGH DEPRECIATION OFFSET BY HIGHER CAP
EX, HIGHER OPERATING COSTS, AND LOWER PRODUCTION.
1/9/2013SPOTMARKETS NONFERROUS METALS NONFERROUS METALS INVENTORIES FALL 3 OF 4 PAST WEEKS AND EARLY
THIS WEEK, REVERSING UPTREND, AND RAISING HOPE OF SPRING RALLIES
1/9/2013GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLCGLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLC (GLCNF, $6.11; RATED UNDERWEIGHT;
PRICE TARGET REDUCED TO USD $3.00 FROM USD $4.50) PRICE TARGET
REDUCED REFLECTING LOWER COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES AND SALE OF
FERTILIZER ASSETS
1/7/2013CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $210.09, rated Overweight with $360 price target) - -
COVERAGE INITIATED AT OVERWEIGHT DUE TO UNIT VOLUME GROWTH
AT DISCOUNTED VALUATION
1/4/2013ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC (ANFGF $21.62, RATING LOWERED TO
UNDERWEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT, Price Target Lowered to $16/share
from $24/US ADS share) INVESTMENT RATING LOWERED DUE TO LOWER
COPPER AND MOLY PRICE ESTIMATES, SHUTDOWN OF ANTUCOYA
PROJECT AND REMOVAL OF NOKOMIS PROJECT FROM OUR MODELS
1/3/2013WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $27.00; rated OVERWEIGHT with $35 up
from $30 target) STRONG CYLINDERS, STEEL PROCESSING, AND JOINT
VENTURES OFFSET BREAKEVEN ENGINEERED CABS AND “OTHER” LOSSES
12/28/2012SPOTMARKETSWHILE WE HOPE FOR A “SPRING THAW” IN A COUPLE MONTHS, DECEMBER
DATA BRINGS HIGHER INVENTORIES, WRITEOFFS AND CAUTION
12/28/2012TECKTECK (TCK $35.22, Overweight; price target cut to $47 from $63) LOWER COPPER
PRICE FORECAST CAUSES SUBSTANTIAL CUT TO TCK’S PRICE TARGET
AND EPS ESTIMATES. BUY RECOMMENDATION REITERATED.
12/28/2012BARRICKBARRICK (ABX $34.26, Neutral rating; price target increased to $36 from $34)
LOWER COPPER PRICES, A HIGHER CONSOLIDATED TAX RATE AND MORE
LENIENT NPV ANALYSIS
12/26/2012NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $44.80, rated Underweight with $38 up from $36 price
target) BETTER BATU HIJAU OPERATING PERFORMANCE BEGINNING IN 2014,
OPTIMIZED GHANA AND PERU INVESTMENTS AND LOWER CAPEX AND
EXPLORATION MOSTLY OFFSET BY LOWER LONG TERM COPPER PRICING
12/21/2012COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - PRICE OUTLOOK CUT AS GRADUAL WORLD GROWTH
RATES AND MANY NEW MINES HURT DEMAND-SUPPLY SIMULATION
12/21/2012WEEKLY GRAPHSMETALS, CONTAINERBOARD, WOOD AND FARM GRAPHS (PART 2)
12/18/2012METALS INDUSTRYMETALS INDUSTRY - - - FIRING ENGINEERING FIRMS TO INCREASE
SHAREHOLDER VALUE
12/18/2012INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP: $38.16 rated Overweight with $47 price target
maintained) IP’S SALE OF TEMPLE INLAND BUILDING PRODUCTS SEGMENT
FOR $750 MILLION EXCEEDS OUR ESTIMATE OF $477 MILLION; OTHER
OFFSETTING MODEL CHANGES
12/14/2012WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER ($27.25 rated Overweight up from Neutral with $30 up from $24
price target) HIGHER NEAR TERM WOOD PRODUCTS OPERATING MARGINS
AS PRICES REMAIN HIGH. STRONG LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS DUE TO
RECOVERING US HOUSING MARKET
12/11/2012LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC (LPX $17.59 rated Neutral with $19 up from $12 price target)
STRONGER OSB VOLUMES DRIVEN BY HIGHER HOUSING STARTS AND
PRICE REALIZATIONS BENEFIT VALUATION
12/11/2012WEEKLY GRAPHS GRAPHIC REVIEW OF 38 DATA SERIES DATING BACK UP TO 25 YEARS OF
METALS PRICES, INVENTORIES, GLOBAL SUPPLY and GLOBAL DEMAND
12/11/2012FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $32.04, rated Overweight, price
target $56) IMPACT ON FINANCIAL STATEMENTS VERSUS THE IMPACT ON
DIVIDENDS & SHARE BUYBACKS VERSUS THE FCX SHARE PRICE
12/07/2012TAHOE RESOURCES INC.TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $17.62, $29 target, rated OVERWEIGHT) MORE
DATA ACCUMULATING TO UPGRADE OUR FORECASTS AFTER NEXT
UPDATED 43-101 RESOURCES CALCULATED; COMMENTS FROM
GUATEMALA SITE VISIT
12/7/2012FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $32.17, rated Overweight, price
target $56) REITERATE BUY RATING BASED ON PRE-MERGER CASH FLOWS,
PROPOSED MERGER OR CHANGES TO PROPOSED MERGER
12/6/2012STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - LEAD INDICATOR OF RISING STEEL IMPORTS, FALLING
EXPORTS, FAILED PRICE HIKES AND POOR PROFITS
12/2/2012FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRYFOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRY - - LOUISIANA-PACIFIC BUYS OSB
CAPACITY FOR $183 PER 000 SQ FT PLUS A DEFERRED PAYMENT, OR ABOUT
HALF OF THE VALUATION IMPLIED BY LPX OR NORBORD SHARE PRICES
11/30/2012METALS BEST LARGE CAP SHORTMETALS - - - DISCUSSION AS TO WHICH WILL BE A BETTER SHORT AMONG
THE DEBT-LADEN SUPERMAJORS GLENCORE, BHP, VALE AND RIO TINTO
11/30/2012GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLCGLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLC (GLCNF, $5.42; RATED UNDERWEIGHT;
PRICE TARGET REDUCED TO USD $4.50 FROM USD $6) COMPLETION OF
XSTRATA MERGER; ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DEBT REDUCTION
METHODS
11/28/2012NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF $23.87 rated Neutral with $23 from $15 price target) HIGHER
NORTH AMERICAN OSB PRICE REALIZATIONS GOING FORWARD DRIVE
IMPROVED VALUATION
11/28/2012SPOTMARKETSMORE GRIM DATA FROM BASE METALS GLOBALLY
11/23/2012METALS INDUSTRIESMETALS INDUSTRIES - - TEN CASE STUDIES AS CHINESE PRODUCE MORE
AND FEW WESTERN MINES CUT OUTPUT TO ADJUST TO SLOW GROWTH
11/23/2012PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $13.03 rated overweight with $37 price target
maintained) HIGHER TONNAGE VALLEY OF THE KINGS RESOURCE
PUBLISHED 11/20/12 OFFSETS LOWER GRADES; SUPPORTS OPERATING
RATE INCREASING TO 4,000 SAY IN 2019 > FEASIBILITY RATE OF 2,700 MTPD
11/20/2012DIVIDENDSUPDATE AND ANALYSIS OF DIVIDEND POLICIES OF THE 43 STOCKS IN OUR
COVERAGE UNIVERSE AND COMPARISON TO 16 LARGE CAP U.S.
CONSUMER STOCKS
11/20/2012ROCKTENNROCKTENN (RKT: $64.61 rated Overweight up from Neutral with $81 price target)
FAVORABLE PRICE, COST, SYNERGY TRENDS; POTENTIAL “MACRO
BENEFICIARY” OF SLOW GROWTH VIA CHEAP SCRAP AND GAS
11/17/2012ALL TIME INVENTORYRECORD CAP EX AMID GLOBAL SLOWDOWN WORSENS OVERSUPPLY AND
THREATENS “WORST EVER CYCLE;” BHP, GLENCORE AND XSTRATA
DOWNGRADED FROM OVERWEIGHT AND GLENCORE, XSTRATA, HUDBAY,
THOMPSON CREEK, FORTESCUE AND VALE CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT
11/13/2012BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $35.29, rated Neutral down from Overweight, $34 down from
$43 price target) INCREASED NEAR TERM CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AT
PASCUA, OUTPUT DELAYED TWO YEARS JABAL SAYID, AND HIGH Q3 2012
LUMWANA OPERATING COSTS DRIVEN BY WASTE STRIPPING
11/13/2012VALEVALE (VALE $17.74, Rating Neutral; price target lowered to $22 from $25)
LOWER ESTIMATED NICKEL OUTPUT HURTS LONG TERM EARNINGS;
LOWER ESTIMATED 2012 COPPER OUTPUT, IRON ORE, AND NICKEL PRICES
11/13/2012ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $27.37, rated Overweight with price target cut to
$36 from $80) PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT; TIMET
TAKEOVER SHOWS ATI POOR MARKET VALUATION AS ATI PROFITS FALL
11/9/2012ALCOAALCOA (AA $8.39, rating NEUTRAL; PRICE TARGET RAISED FROM $10 to $13)
LARGE PROFIT BENEFIT FROM “ARBITRAGE” BETWEEN QUALITY
PREMIUMS, MIDWEST PREMIUMS, AND INPUTS LIKE UBC SCRAP
DISCOUNTS; ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS SEGMENT VALUES
11/6/2012AEMAEM (AEM $54.93 rated Underweight cut from Neutral with $40 up from $37 price
target) NPV/SHARE INCREASES BY $2.45 DUE TO LOWER LONG TERM
OPERATING COSTS AT MEADOWBANK AND LARONDE; SHARE PRICE
APPRECIATION > TWICE ESTIMATED NPV/SHARE CAUSES DOWNGRADE.
11/6/2012SPOTMARKETSMUCH CONFIRMATION OF WORLD SLOWDOWN WITH RECORD ALUMINUM,
ZINC AND TOTAL EXCHANGE INVENTORY
11/6/2012MERCATOR MINERALSMERCATOR MINERALS (MLKKF $$0.50, rated NEUTRAL) PRICE TARGET CUT
FROM $2.50 to $0.50 DUE TO DILUTION, USE OF HIGHER 12.5% DISCOUNT
RATE, LOWER PRICES AND “BLOCKING POSITION”
11/4/2012INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER ($35.93 rated overweight with $47 down from $50 price
target) SHAVED PRICE TARGET $3 PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER PRICE
CONTAINERBOARD PRICE GAIN ESTIMATE BASED ON 3Q ACTUAL AND
ESTIMATE OF ¼ OF ANNOUNCED HIKE WITH LOW OCC
10/26/2012ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $15.48, rated NEUTRAL and price target $23/share)
CEO VACANCY A “STRADDLE TRADE,” OR EITHER VERY BAD OR VERY
GOOD
10/24/2012FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $38.79, rated Overweight, price
target cut to $56 from $61) NEAR TERM COPPER, GOLD, and MOLYBDENUM
PRICES CUT; NEAR TERM GRASBERG PRODUCTION ESTIMATES LOWERED
10/21/2012GALWAY RESOURCESGALWAY RESOURCES (GWYRF US $2.201 or C$2.15, rated Overweight with
price target over $3) VETAS SPINOUT MAY PROVE WORTH 1.5 TIMES
MORE THAN CALIFORNIA, BUT VALUED NEAR NIL ON OCTOBER 19TH
10/17/2012PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA (PKG $36.26 rated Overweight with $39 price
target) NUMEROUS CONSERVATISMS ADDED TO THE MODEL INCLUDING
FEWER STOCK BUYBACKS AT HIGHER SHARE PRICES AND ONLY 25% OF
ANNOUNCED $50/TON INDUSTRYWIDE CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKES.
10/16/2012TAHOE RESOURCES INC.TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $20.72, $29 target, rated OVERWEIGHT) WE
WILL INCORPORATE 10% HIGHER MILL TONNAGES AND 15 MMT INCREASE
TO TAHOE’S RESOURCE TONNAGES AFTER NEW SILVER GRADES VERIFIED
10/15/2012GOLD STOCK RETURNSGOLD AND SILVER STOCK DIVERGENT RETURNS SINCE JUNE 6, 2012
10/15/2012GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLCGLENCORE INTERNATIONAL PLC (GLCNF, 5.35; RATED OVERWEIGHT;
PRICE TARGET LOWERED FROM $7 to $6/share) BREAKDOWN OF SOUTH
AFRICAN COAL PROJECTS; LOWER ESTIMATED 2012 COPPER AND ZINC
OUTPUT AND HIGHER ESTIMATED 2012 OIL OUTPUT; LARGER NET DEBT
10/12/2012ROCKTENNROCKTENN (RKT $71.43; rated neutral up from underweight with $81 up from $47
price target) CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKE ON BOTH BOXES AND BOARD
BENEFITS EARNINGS; ADDED COST SAVING SYNERGIES ESTIMATED IN
CORRUGATED SEGMENT AS SMURFIT INTEGRATION CONTINUES.
11/20/2007RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RTP $416.05, rated Overweight) OFFENSIVE ALTERNATIVES TO BID
ON BHP BILLITON (BHP $70.84, rated Neutral), “PREVIEW” OF NOV. 26TH CALL
11/19/2007DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DM.TO C$3.55, rated Overweight) METALLURGICAL
RECOVERY RESULTS PRESS RELEASE NOTES EXACTLY AS WE ESTIMATED
IN PRIOR OCTOBER 8TH AND 19TH REPORTS
11/16/2007WEYERHAEUSER WEYERHAEUSER (WY $71.78 11/16/07, Overweight) EARNINGS ESTIMATES LOWERED
DUE TO CONTINUED POOR HOUSING MARKETS.
11/16/2007BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $74.10, rated Neutral) PERMUTATIONS AND
COMBINATIONS OF COMPETING BIDS OR DEFENSES FROM RIO TINTO (RTP
$440.96, rated Overweight); “PAC-MAN” IMPROBABLE IN OUR VIEW
11/15/2007COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF CARLOTA AND SAFFORD COPPER MINES
ENVIRONMENTAL PERMITTING TIME LINES
11/12/2007BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $72.23, rated Neutral) COMPANY’S ESTIMATE $3.7 BILLION
SYNERGIES FROM RIO TINTO (RTP $441,14, rated Overweight) COMBINATION
MUCH LARGER THAN $1 BILLION-PLUS WE ESTIMATED LAST MAY 10TH
11/11/2007STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY – RECORD EXPORTS LIKELY TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
WITH WEAK DOLLAR AND CONSTRUCTION OF NEW GULF STEEL MILLS
11/11/2007STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY – COMMENTS FROM VISIT TO SEVERCORR NEW STEEL
MILL IN COLUMBUS, MS ON NOVEMBER 9-10th; HALF OF A 5 M.T. OUTPUT
ULTIMATELY COULD BE EXPORTED
11/4/2007SPORTMARKETSGOLD AND ALUMINUM PRICES STRONGER WHILE COPPER WEAK; ALL
INVENTORIES RISE EXCEPT ALUMINUM
11/1/2007FNX MININGFNX MINING (FNXMF $29.00, rated Overweight) NO DATA ON LEVACK FOOTWALL
YET; PODOLSKY INITIAL RESERVE FROM HIGH GRADE TUNNEL; EARNINGS POOR
11/1/2007NEWMONT MINNGNEWMONT MINNG (NEM $50.90, Overweight) EARNINGS ESTIMATE RAISED
11/1/2007BARRICK GOLD BARRICK GOLD (ABX $44.13, rated Overweight) TWO ACQUISITIONS BENEFIT
RESOURCE BASE; EARNINGS SUFFER LOW GRADES
10/30/2007LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC (LPX $16.46, rated Neutral) PROSPECTS FOR SMALLER
LOSSES AND LESSER CASH OUTFLOWS COULD PERMIT BULL TRADE FROM
FOURTH QUARTER SEASONAL LOW TO MAY/SPRING SEASONAL HIGH
10/28/2007FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLDFREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $95.00, 9-19-05, rated
Overweight) MANY OFFSETTING INFLUENCES IN QUARTERLY RESULTS
10/27/2007ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $101.90, rated NEUTRAL WEIGHT)
ESTIMATES CUT MORE
10/26/2007MEADWESTVACOMEADWESTVACO (MWV $32.92 1-1-07, rated Neutral) GOOD RESULTS AND
LAND SALES FUND CONTINUED SHARE REPURCHASES
10/26/2007CHINA REPORTMETALS DEMAND: IMPRESSIONS OF SIXTEEN DAY CHINA TRIP
10/25/2007SMURFIT-STONESMURFIT-STONE CONTAINER (SSCC $11.93, rated Underweight) STRONG
INDUSTRY CLIMATE PERMITS OPERATING PROFITABILITY
10/25/2007NUCORNUCOR (NUE $61.19, 10-24-07, rated Neutral Weight) INVESTMENT RATING
RAISED TO NEUTRAL OWING TO LIKELY FIRST-HALF 2008 STEEL MARKET
REBOUND, TEMPERED BY 11X P/E AND 20% SHEET MARKET CAPACITY ADD
10/24/2007PLUM CREEKPLUM CREEK (PCL $41.84, Overweight) EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UNIT COST, VOLUME AND SALES PRICE TRENDS; SHARE
REPURCHASES A PLUS, THOUGH CASH FLOWS SLOWING
10/21/2007SPOTPRICESMETALS MARKETS MIXED, BUT STEEL AND COPPER SHOW GOOD SIGNS
10/21/2007DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DM.TO C$3.55, rated Overweight) NOTES FROM
MANAGEMENT BREAKFAST MEETING WE HOSTED OCTOBER 19TH
10/18/2007NEWMONT MINNGNEWMONT MINNG (NEM $46.14, Overweight) MANAGEMENT VACANCIES
SUGGEST NEWMONT COULD LEND SUPPORT TO HOPE BAY DEVELOPMENT;
MEADOWBANK PROJECT ALSO IN NUNAVUT FURTHER ALONG
10/16/2007CVRDCVRD (RIO $34.23, rating under development) ANALYSIS OF WORLD’S LARGEST
EVER METALS CAPITAL BUDGET
10/14/2007SPOTPRICESMANY PRICES AND MOST INVENTORIES RISE
10/14/2007NEWMONT MINNG BUYS HOPEBAYNEWMONT MINNG (NEM $47.54, Overweight) FOUR UNKNOWNS KEY TO THE
ASSESSMENT OF THE MANY HOPE BAY DEPOSITS OF MIRAMAR
10/14/2007ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $100.04, rated NEUTRAL WEIGHT)
IMPLICATIONS OF FOURTH-QUARTER OUTLOOK REVISION DEPEND ON
SPECIFIC CAUSES
10/11/2007ALUMINUM INDUSTRY RUSALALUMINUM INDUSTRY CAPACITY UPDATE AS UC RUSAL PLANS 3.1 MMT
NEW CAPACITY TO TOTAL 7 MMT BY 2011 WITH NEW 1.05 MMT SMELTER
IN SARATOV, RUSSIA ANNOUNCED OCTOBER 9TH
10/10/2007ALCOAALCOA (AA $38.30, rated Neutral) EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT SHARPLY DUE
TO COSTS, LME PRICE ESTIMATES THE SAME AND 25% REPURCHASE
ESTIMATED TO NEED $3.1 BILLION IN DEBT PLUS CAPITAL SPENDING CUTS
10/8/2007MINE SAFETY CAPACITYMINE SAFETY INTERACTS WITH “CAPACITY” THROUGHPUT, AND NEW
MINE SAFETY RULES PROBABLY WILL REDUCE GLOBAL MINING
CAPACITY 1% TO 3%
10/7/2007POLYMET MINING INITIATIONPOLYMET MINING (PLM $4.02, rated Overweight) COVERAGE INITIATED AT
OVERWEIGHT OWING TO 2009 STARTUP OF ROUGHLY 800 MILLION METRIC
TONNE NICKEL-COPPER-COBALT-PRECIOUS METALS DEPOSIT IN MN
10/7/2007DULUTH METALS INITIATIONDULUTH METALS (DM.TO C$3.04, rated Overweight) COVERAGE INITIATED AT
OVERWEIGHT OWING TO ROUGHLY 600 MILLION METRIC TONNE NICKELCOPPER-
COBALT-PRECIOUS METALS DEPOSIT IN MINNESOTA
10/7/2007DULUTH NI CUNICKEL AND COPPER --- EVALUATION AND COMPARISON OF DULUTH
COMPLEX NICKEL, COPPER, COBALT, PLATINUM GROUP AND GOLD
10/6/2007BARRICK GOLD COSTSBARRICK GOLD (ABX $40.92, rated Overweight) ORE GRADES, LOWER
STRIPPING AND COST HEDGING BENEFIT 2008 COST OUTLOOK
10/6/2007SPOTPRICES MIXEDPRICES AND INVENTORIES MIXED AS MANY MOVE ADVERSELY