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2/16/2017DOMTAR DOMTAR CAPEX RAISED, PAPER SHIPMENTS FALL, PAPER PRICE
ESTIMATES DECREASED AND SHARE BUYBACKS NOT AS RAPID
2/15/2017SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. HIGHER OUTPUT RAISES EARNINGS AND
VALUATION AS ANNOUNCED JANUARY 31ST TO 1.5 MMT MID-2023
2/15/2017NORTHERN DYNASTYNORTHERN DYNASTY WAITS FOR POTENTIAL JV PARTNERS OWN
TECHNICAL STUDIES; VICTIM OF HISTORIC BEAR RAID
2/14/2017NORILSK NICKELNORILSK NICKEL HAS MET ABOUT ½ OF OUR UPSIDE TARGET, WHILE
NICKEL MARKET UPSIDE TRAJECTORY “GRADUAL” WITHOUT SHORTAGES
2/13/2017CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FEW ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES AFTER IP
LOSES 520,000 TONS OF CAPACITY IN PENSACOLA, FL JAN. 22ND EXPLOSION
2/9/2017COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MOST STRIKES OR DISRUPTIONS ARE TEMPORARY,
WHERE REFUSALS TO INVEST OR DECISIONS TO INVEST HAVE LEAD TIMES
2/7/2017GOLDCORPGOLDCORP FORECASTS LOWER 2017-19 AND HIGHER 2020-21 OUTPUT THAN
OUR PRIOR ESTIMATES; LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES
2/6/2017KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD HIGHER CAP EX AND EXPLORATION
2/3/2017ARCONICARCONIC: LOWER ENGINEERED PRODUCTS REVENUE GROWTH HURTS
EARNINGS ESTIMATES WHILE LOWER CASH TAX RATES, HIGHER CASH
BALANCES AND HIGHER ALCOA VALUATION RAISE VALUATION
1/31/2017METALS EXPANSIONSMETALS - - VOLUME 20 LARGELY DESCRIBES REOPENINGS AND NEW
INVESTMENTS NO LONGER DISTRESS SHUTDOWNS
1/31/2017TECKTECK HIGHER EARNINGS OUTLOOK WITH LOWER COSTS AND HIGHER
NEAR TERM COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES
1/31/2017RIO TINTORIO TINTO LOWER NEAR TERM COAL PRODUCTION AND PRICES HURT
EARNINGS; HIGHER COPPER AND IRON PRICES PARTIALLY OFFSET;
GRASBERG STEPUP TO 40% IN 2023 NOT 2021 WITH SLOWER MINING;
1/31/2017COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND STEADY, WHILE SCRAP SUPPLY PLUNGES
AND SEVEN COMPANIES CUT 2017 MINE OUTPUT PROFILES
1/31/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SCRAP COLLECTIONS 68.7% OF 2011 LEVELS WITH 4 OF
6 REPORTING FOURTH-QUARTER; FEBRUARY STEEL SCRAP MAY FALL $42
1/29/2017METALS “LAZARUS STOCKS”METALS “LAZARUS STOCKS” SEE REBOUNDS OVER FIVEFOLD FROM LOWS
1/29/2017METALS INVENTORYMETALS SEE LARGEST EXCHANGE INVENTORY RISE IN FOUR YEARS
1/27/2017ALCOAALCOA HIGHER 2017 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND LOWER DEPRECIATION
INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATE; HIGHER NET DEBT EQUIVALENTS TRIP
PRICE TARGET DESPITE LOWER FUTURE CAP. EX. ESTIMATES
1/27/2017WESTROCKWESTROCK BENEFITS FROM $50/T OCTOBER 1ST CONTAINERBOARD HIKE,
POSSIBLE 2ND $50/T AFTER IP PENSACOLA MISHAP AND $50/T FOR CERTAIN
FOLDING CARTON PAPERS; BUYS MPSX AND SELLS SPRAY NOZZLES
1/26/2017FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM COPPER OUTPUT GUIDANCE LOWER THAN EXPECTED;
BULLISH IMPLICATIONS FOR COPPER PRICES
1/24/2017WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER. HIGHER LUMBER AND OSB PRICES AND LOWER NET
DEBT BALANCE BENEFIT VALUATION
1/21/2017LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC, HIGHER 2017 AND 2018 OSB ESTIMATED
REALIZATIONS PARTLY OFFSET BY HIGHER OPERATING COST ESTIMATES
1/21/2017NORBORD NORBORD 2017 AND 2018 OSB PRICE REALIZATION ESTIMATES RAISED;
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO VARIOUS 2017 AND 2018 OSB PRICES
1/13/2017TAHOE RESOURCES INCORPORATETAHOE RESOURCES INCORPORATE TWO LARGE NEW PROJECTS, HIGHER
CAP EX AND SLOWER GOLD PRICE UPTURNS
1/12/2017FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: TAX BENEFITS FROM SALE OF US OIL&GAS
OPERATIONS INCREASE EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND NPV; OTHER CHANGES
1/10/2017OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES AND ROYAL GOLD UPDATED FOR CURRENT
GOLD PRICE SCENARIO AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS
1/6/2017STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - IRON ORE DISPLACES DECLINING SCRAP VOLUMES
1/5/2017FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS DECEMBER AND MARCH QUARTERLY EARNINGS
SURPRISE UPSIDES FOR OSB, LPX, WY, WFTBF, WRK, PKG, IP, KS, OTHERS
1/5/2017ARCONICARCONIC FORECASTS HIGHER POTENTIAL MARGINS; TO SWITCH TO AUTO
SHEETS AND EXIT BEVERAGE CANS
12/15/2016ALUMINUM & STEELALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIES: ARCONIC SPINOFF TO EXIT BEVERAGE
CAN BODY STOCK PRESUMABLY HAS LARGE NEW AUTO ORDERS
12/29/2016SUPERALLOY WARSMETALS “ALLOY COMPETITION” AMONG AEROSPACE, JET ENGINE AND
HIGH PRECISION SUPPLIERS
1/4/2017SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS DEMAND FIRM; MINERS TARDY NOT REOPENING SCRAP
YARDS AND COPPER, ZINC, LEAD, NICKEL, IRON ORE, MET COAL MINES
12/31/2016NICKEL INDUSTRYNICKEL HAS 4.7% DROP IN MINE OUTPUT, 0.2% DROP IN REFINED OUTPUT
AND 7.2% GAIN IN APPARENT DEMAND IN OCTOBER 2016 YTD WBMS DATA
12/30/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI MODELS UPDATED FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES
12/29/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 19METALS - - VOLUME 19 OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES 21
EXPANSIONS AND 10 SHUTDOWNS IN DECEMBEER AFTER 23 EXPANSIONS
AND 11 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN DECEMBER
12/29/2016SUPERALLOY WARSMETALS “ALLOY COMPETITION” AMONG AEROSPACE, JET ENGINE AND
HIGH PRECISION SUPPLIERS
12/29/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM AND ALUMINA OUTPUTS MAKE NEW RECORDS IN SEPTEMBER,
OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER MOVING INTO OVERSUPPLY
12/28/2016GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V.GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. de C.V. HIGHER FUTURE COPPER PRICES AND
PRODUCTION GENERATE HIGHER FUTURE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
12/28/2016CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES ENJOYS PRICE APPRECIATION EVEN THOUGH NITROGEN
PRICES AND EARNINGS FALL SHARPLY
12/24/2016AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES LOWER GOLD PRICE AND LOWER OPERATING
COSTS AT MEXICAN ASSETS DUE TO A WEAKER MEXICAN PESO
12/22/2016NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING CASH FLOW OUTLOOK UNDERMINED BY LOWER GOLD
PRICES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES
12/20/2016ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER NEAR TERM PRICES OFFSET BY LOWER
ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
12/19/2016VALEVALE ENJOYS $3+ BILLION SALES VALUE FOR FERTILIZERS
12/15/2016ALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIESALUMINUM & STEEL INDUSTRIES: ARCONIC SPINOFF TO EXIT BEVERAGE
CAN BODY STOCK PRESUMABLY HAS LARGE NEW AUTO ORDERS
12/12/2016GOLDCORPGOLDCORP LOWER GOLD PRICES OFFSET BY 0.5% LOWER DISCOUNT RATE;
LOS FILOS SALE VALUED AT $400 MILLION.
12/7/2016VALEVALE CHARGES “HIGHER THAN SCREEN PRICES” FOR 65% FE CARAJAS
BLEND; FUTURE EMPHASIS ON DEBT REPAYMENT AND DIVIDENDS
12/7/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO ENHANCED COST REDUCTION TARGETS, OUTPUT RESTRAINT
AND NO DISCUSSION OF PRICING GAINS UPSIDES
12/6/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON BENEFITS FROM TURNAROUND IN BASE METALS
ESPECIALLY AT VALE VIA TWO SALOBO PENDING POSSIBLE EXPANSIONS
12/6/2016ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN: ADDITIONAL ASSET SALES, LOWER CAPEX, HIGHER
MET COAL AND IRON ORE PRICES INCREASE CASH FLOW AND VALUATION
12/2/2016SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD BENEFITS FROM DEBT PAYDOWNS AND PORTFOLIO
GAINS; PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER GOLD PRICES AND MORE SHARES
11/30/2016FORTESCUE SITE VISITFORTESCUE METALS VISITS TO HQ INVESTOR DAY, KINGS & FIRETAIL
MINES AND PORT HEDLAND; STEADY TONS, COST CUTS AND DEBT CUTS
11/30/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS VISITS TO HQ INVESTOR DAY, KINGS & FIRETAIL
MINES AND PORT HEDLAND; STEADY TONS, COST CUTS AND DEBT CUTS
11/29/2016FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA BENEFITS FROM FIRMER COPPER ENHANCING
PROJECTS, WHILE RECENT GOLD PRICE SELLOFF TRIMS REVENUES
11/28/2016METALS FOUR STRATEGIESMETALS - - COMPARING FOUR STRATEGIES
11/27/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 18METALS - - VOLUME 18 OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES 23
EXPANSIONS AND 11 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN NOVEMBER
11/23/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK EARNINGS AND PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO LOWER FOLDING
CARTON PRICES AND CONSUMER PREFERENCE TO FRESH FOODS
11/22/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LIKELY NEARER BREAKEVEN IN 2017 DUE TO
HIGHER AMORTIZATION STEP-UP BIG LOSSES ON AUSSIE MINES
11/18/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD PRICE TARGET FALLS WITH 2017 GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK;
SENSITIVITY TO LARGER AND EARLIER DONLIN CREEK PROJECT STUDIED
11/18/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING: SALE OF TENKE FUNGURUME INCORPORATED; LOWER
PRECIOUS METAL PRICE ESTIMATES
11/17/2016HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS: FAVORABLE REVISIONS TO DEFERRED TAX,
DISCOUNT RATE, CAP EX AND OP EX OFFSET SOFT 2016-17 COPPER PRICES
11/16/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - STRONG DOLLAR AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES HURT
INVESTMENT DEMAND; WE CUT 2017 GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES TO $1,200
11/16/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON. PASCUA-LAMA MODELED BEGINNING CHILE OUTPUT
IN 2026; LOWER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES.
11/16/2016METALS TRUMP INFRASTRUCTUREMETALS - - IT IS OKAY TO USE TRUMP SURPRISE ELECTION VICTORY AS
AN EXCUSE TO REVERSE OUTDATED OR DEAD WRONG INVESTMENT VIEW
11/14/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LETTER TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS
11/10/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - EARLY 2016 RALLY OVER; LOOK TO FIVE EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS BY SEPTEMBER 2017 FOR ONE OR TWO TO MOVE TO EU EXIT
11/10/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: FOCUS ON 3 KEY LARGE COPPER MINES; LOW
2017 AND 2018 CAP EX, PENT UP CAPITAL PROJECTS & LIKELY U.S. TAX CUT
11/9/2016CORP. TAX RATETRUMP PROPOSAL TO CUT CORPORATE TAX RATE IMPACTS 13 OF THE 45
OR SO COMPANIES UNDER OUR FULL RESEARCH COVERAGE
11/9/2016METALS, FOREST PRODUCTS, FERTILIZERS ELECTIONMARKET QUIET REACTIONS TO TRUMP VICTORY; TRUMP PROPOSALS TO
CUT CORPORATE INCOME TAX, REPEAL NAFTA AND CREATE JOBS
11/8/2016AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES BENEFITS AS AMARUQ LIKELY GOLD OUTPUT
BIGGER, MELIADINE ECONOMICS MAY IMPROVE AND CASH “FLOWS”
11/2/2016SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. LOWER COPPER AND BYPRODUCT PRICES
ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY LOWER 2016 OPERATING COSTS
11/1/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD DISCLOSES MULTIPLE BIDS AFTER SEPT. 29TH; TO
DEVELOP RESERVES AND RESOURCES TO IMPROVE MARKET CONFIDENCE
10/31/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES COULD BENEFIT FROM ACQUIRING KIRKLAND LAKE
GOLD BASED ON SYNERGIES AND LOWER KIRKLAND LAKE VALUATION
10/31/2016ARCONIC ARNCARCONIC POTENTIAL STRATEGIES TO REDUCE DEBT TO COMMAND
SINGLE-A CREDIT RATING
10/31/2016ALCOA UPSTREAMALCOA RESTRUCTURED “UPSTREAM” COMPANY EARNS ABOUT 7 CENTS
PER LB FROM CASTING AND ELECTRICITY
10/31/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 17METALS - - VOLUME SEVENTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS
TALLIES 24 EXPANSIONS AND 28 SHUTDOWNS OR CUTBACKS IN OCTOBER
10/22/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER MODELED ESTIMATING 40% OF OCTOBER 1, 2016
$50/TON CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKE STICKS
10/20/2016COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND GAIN, SCRAP 1+ MMT FALL AND CHILEAN
& DRC CONGO OUTPUT FALLS ABSORB NEAR RECORD NEW MINE OUTPUT
10/20/2016PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA’SPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA’S OPERATING COSTS SEE HIGHER INPUT
PRICES; 40% OF OCT 1ST $50/TON CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKE MODELED
10/20/2016ALUMINA LTDALUMINA LTD: LOWER 2016 OPERATING COSTS AND CAPEX ESTIMATES
INCREASE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW; LONG TERM ALUMINUM PRICE
ESTIMATES OF $0.87/LB DETRACT FROM PRICE TARGET
10/18/2016METALS PRICE TRENDMETALS - - TRENDS OF U.S. DOLLAR, INTEREST RATES AND DEFLATION
VERSUS PRICE CHARTS VERSUS SUPPLY ATTRITION SECTORS
10/13/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD SIMULATED WITH DONLIN GOLD, LAMA, ALTURAS, AND
PASCUA PROJECTS ADDED TO OUR MODEL WITH BETTER BALANCE SHEET
10/13/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - WHILE SCRAP STEEL PLUNGED AGAIN IN OCTOBER,
WE ESTIMATE A $75-$100/T RISE BASED ON INGREDIENT COSTS
10/7/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC LOWER COPPER PRICES OFFSET BY HIGHER ZINC, NICKEL,
AND MET COAL PRICES; SALEs OF 30% OF ERNST HENRY ECONOMIC
INTEREST AND AN ADDED 9.99% INTERST IN AG BUSINESS
10/7/2016ALUMINUMALUMINUM OUTPUT RESTRAINT IN CHINA AND ROW GREATER THAN
EXPECTED AS JUNE 2015 WORLD OUTPUT RECORDS NOT YET BROKEN
10/6/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS FALLING INVENTORIES AND LOWER ORE, CONCENTRATE
AND SCRAP SUPPLIES FOR CU, NI, PB AND ZN AT LOW PRICES
10/6/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER WOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT VALUATION RAISED ON
HIGHER OSB AND LUMBER PRICES; EFFECTIVE TAX RATE INCREASED.
10/4/2016VALEVALE: HIGHER NICKEL PRICES AND LOWER 2017 CAPEX OFFSET BY LOWER
COPPER PRICES AND IRON ORE OUTPUT; MORE ASSET SALES MADE
10/4/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO: LOWER NEAR TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT AND COPPER PRICES
OFFSET BY HIGHER MET COAL PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
10/3/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 16METALS - - VOLUME SIXTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS TALLIES
26 EXPANSIONS AND 25 SHUTDOWNS IN SEPTEMBER
9/30/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ACQUIRES UNDER DEFINED UNDERGROUND GOLD
MINES AND INFUSES NEW BLOOD WITH RESPECTED MANAGERS
9/29/2016NORBORD NORBORD 2017 AND 2018 NORTH AMERICAN OSB PRICE REALIZATION
ESTIMATES RAISED
9/29/2016WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - RECORD QUARTER DRIVEN BY STEEL
PROCESSING AND CLARKDIETRICH JV SELLING-PRICE-TO-INPUT COSTS
9/27/2016FERTILIZER INDUSTRYFERTILIZER INDUSTRY - - CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER ARGUMENTS IN
FAVOR OF A VEGETARIAN DIET
9/27/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD ANDACOLLO GOLD OUTPUT INCREASED BASED ON 2016
TECK GUIDANCE; ILOVICA PROJECT REMOVED; SENSITIVITY TO PASCUA .
9/23/2016FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA UPDATED DEPRECIATION ESTIMATES RAISED BASED ON
2016 GUIDANCE WHILE OIL AND GAS REVENUES CUT.
9/21/2016GOLD CONF. COLORADO GOLD INDUSTRY- -AUDIENCE IN COLORADO SPRINGS MAYBE A RECORD
9/20/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SEPT. MET COAL RISES $75+/t ALMOST TO SCRAP
EQUAL SCRAP STEEL, WHICH PLUNGES $20-$30/T OR NOW DOWN $61-$71/T
FROM PEAKS OR SCRAP STEEL UP JUST $27-$46/T FROM LOWS
9/19/2016BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: LOWER EARNINGS, COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES, AND
PETROLEUM PRODUCTION PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER COSTS; HIGHER
NEAR TERM CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES
9/19/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON ADDITIONAL 25% GOLD STREAM ON VALE’S SALOBO
MINE IN BRAZIL BRING TOTAL GOLD STREAM TO 75%
9/15/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING COPPER, LEAD AND ZINC RESERVES FELL; UPDATED COST
AND PRODUCTION GUIDANCE
9/14/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. SALE OF GULF OF MEXICO PROPERTIES TO
ANADARKO; LOWER NEAR TERM COPPER PRICES INCORPORATED
9/13/2016LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC SIDING SEGMENT OPERATING PROFIT ESTIMATES
INCREASED BASED ON Q2 2016 RESULTS
9/10/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SEPT. SCRAP PLUNGES $20-$30/T OR NOW DOWN $61-
$71/T FROM PEAKS; UP JUST $27-$46/T FROM LOWS EVEN THOUGH
INGREDIENTS UP ABOUT $53/T
8/31/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - GOLD BULLION ETFs VS. MID-CAP GOLD SHARES VS.
LARGE CAP GOLD SHARES IN EXPECTATION OF RISING GOLD PRICES
8/31/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK FUTURE CAPEX ESTIMATES SHAVED; CONSUMER SEGMENT PROFIT
ESTIMATES RAISED BASED ON STRONG 6/30/16 QUARTER PERFORMANCE
8/31/2016IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - SPOT PRICES FIRM AS WORLD STEEL OUTPUT
RISING; VARIETY OF STATISTICAL ISSUES AND EMBELLISHMENTS
8/31/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS ENJOYS CONSISTENT VOLUMES, COST REDUCTIONS
AND DEBT REDUCTIONS
8/30/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY SUFFERS FROM EXCESS LOCAL CAPACITY AND
COMPETITION AS DEMAND FALLS AGAIN IN 2016 AFTER 10% 2015 DROP
8/29/2016U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL RAISES ALMOST $0.5 BIL. IN EQUITY TO “PREPARE FOR A RAINY
DAY” SUCH AS A RECESSION, CHINESE AUTO OR CHINESE STEEL EXPORTS
8/29/2016TECKTECK: HIGHER ZINC, MOLYBDENUM, and GOLD PRICES AND LOWER NEAR
TERM OPERATING COSTS RAISE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/26/2016SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS – EVIDENCES OF DEMAND GROWTH AS MINE SUPPLIES
FALL VERY SHARPLY IN LEAD, ZINC, NICKEL AND MOLY; PRICES RAISED
8/26/2016PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL DUE TO
SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TRIP ALONG THE MORENCI COPPER MINE
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. MOUNTAIN GOAT HERD AND DEER OBSERVED
NEAR MORENCI OPEN PITS ACCESS ROAD ON AUGUST 6TH
8/16/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TARGETS $10 BILLION NET DEBT TO APPROACH
INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT RATING OR RESUME A DIVIDEND
8/16/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI ESTIMATED COSTS RISE WITH STRONGER LONG
TERM A$ AND RAND; SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD OUTPUT ESTIMATE CUT
8/3/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM PAYS A SMALL DIVIDEND AND PREDICTS PANAMA
COMMISSIONING IN LATE-2018; HIGHER GOLD, NICKEL, AND ZINC PRICES
8/3/2016SOUTHERN COPPER CORP.SOUTHERN COPPER CORP. LOWER COPPER PRICES, HIGHER BYPRODUCT
PRICES, AND LOWER COSTS IMPACT OUR FINANCIAL MODELS
8/2/2016METALS DISTRESS VOL 14 METALS - - VOLUME FOURTEEN OF MONTHLY PLANT SHUTDOWNS
TALLIES 15 EXPANSIONS AND 29 SHUTDOWNS
7/26/2016PACKAGING CORP.PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA “PACKAGING” MARGINS RAISED DUE TO
LOWER COSTS AND HIGHER PRICES FROM THE TIMBAR ACQUISITION
7/26/2016MOSAIC CORP.MOSAIC CORP. LOW DAP AND POTASH PRICES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER
COSTS OF GOODS SOLD
7/26/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES BENEFITS FROM HIGHER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES
7/25/2016NICKEL MARKETNICKEL INDUSTRY ENJOYS 9.3% DROP IN MINE OUTPUT WITH 20.2% GAIN
IN APPARENT DEMAND MAY 2016 YTD WBMS DATA
7/20/2016ROYALTY REVENUE ANALYSISGOLD INDUSTRY - - REVIEW OF STREAMING AND ROYALTY INSTRUMENTS
7/19/2016POLYMET MININGPOLYMET MINING QUEST FOR MINING PERMITS CONTINUES; LIKELY
OUTCOMES IN CONTEXT OF 2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
7/19/2016DOMTARDOMTAR EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET DECREASED DUE TO
LOWER PULP PRICES AND FEWER ESTIMATED FUTURE SHARE BUYBACKS
7/19/2016GOLD EUGOLD - - NEG. RATES, EU BUDGET, ELECTIONS, SECURITY AND STABILITY
7/14/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD UPGRADED DUE TO HIGHER GOLD PRICES AND
MORE GENEROUS INDUSTRYWIDE GOLD MINE VALUATIONS
7/14/2016LUNDIN MINING CORRECTIONLUNDIN MINING CORRECTION TO CUT EAGLE MINE PRODUCTION
ESTIMATES CONCERNING EAGLE EAST
7/13/2016NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING SIMPLIFIES WITH EXIT FROM INDONESIA; GOLD PRICE
ESTIMATES AND 200% UP FROM 150% PREMIUM TO NPV INCREASED
7/13/2016GOLD PRICE CHANGESHIGHER GOLD PRICES AND A HIGHER MULTIPLE TO NPV BENEFIT OUR
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGETS
7/12/2016MONETARY STIMULUSMETALS, ESPECIALLY GOLD, IMPACTED BY WEAK MONETARY POLICIES;
SUPPLY RESTRAINT AND FIRM DEMAND ALSO IMPORTANT
7/12/2016NORILSKNORILSK NICKEL HIGHER PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES DUE
TO PHILIPPINE MINE CLOSINGS, HIGHER NICKEL AND PLATINUM PRICES
7/12/2016LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING INCLUSION OF EAGLE EAST; LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED COPPER PRICE ENVIRONMENT
7/7/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD’S MT MILLIGAN METALS GOLD STREAM RESTRUCTURED BY
CENTERRA GOLD; HIGHER GOLD PRICES AND VALUATION METRICS
7/7/2016COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - DEMAND SURGE PLUS SCRAP DECLINES CREATE
“NEAR SHORTAGE” TO BLUNT MINE OUTPUT GAINS AND STRONG DOLLAR
6/29/2016ALCOAALCOA BALANCE SHEET DETAILS OF THE NEW ALCOA AND ARCONIC
6/28/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME THIRTEEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST
2015 SHOWS MORE EXPANSIONS THAN SHUTDOWNS
6/27/2016BREXIT CONFUSIONMETALS AND RESOURCES SUFFER “BREXIT CONFUSION”
6/25/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER EXPOSED TO FIVE FORCES THAT PREVENT IT FROM
BEING A “RISK-FREE ASSET” PERFECT VERSUS A TREASURY BOND
6/24/2016LOUISIANA-PACIFICLOUISIANA-PACIFIC MODEL UPDATED FOR RECENT PRICING GAINS AND
LOWER OSB SEGMENT OPERATING COSTS BASED ON FIRST-QUARTER 2016
6/24/2016HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS: METALS PRICE ESTIMATES CUT; ROSEMONT PUSHED
BACK TO 2021 IN OUR MODELS; EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT
6/24/2016NORILSK NICKELNORILSK NICKEL COVERAGE INITIATION AFTER PHILIPPINES AND
INDONESIA CUT NICKEL OUTPUTS
6/24/2016CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES COMPLETES CAPITAL PROGRAM, GROWS VOLUME AND
CAN ENJOY LARGE CASH FLOWS AT NORMAL NITROGREN PRICES
6/23/2016SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD BENEFITS FROM COMMERCIAL PROGRESS AS
NUMEROUS DEVELOPMENT STAGE ASSETS ADDED TO OUR MODEL
6/22/2016VALE ASSETSVALE HAS FOUR ALTERNATIVES CONCERNING POSSIBLE “ASSET SALES” >
$15 BILLION EXCLUDING CORE FE, NI, CU UNITS
6/18/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LARGE TRADING VOLUME NEAR CLOSE JUNE 17TH
6/16/2016ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE AND LONG TERM ALUMINA
PRODUCTION ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
6/13/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPOINTS NEW CEO; PRICE
APPRECIATION AND FUTURE DIRECTION UNCERTAINTIES
6/12/2016GOLD INDUSTRY SYNTHETIC ABX Packages 4+ mm oz OutputGOLD INDUSTRY - - CONSTRUCTION OF A “SYNTHETIC ABX” AT A
CHEAPER VALUATION < FIVE TIMES NPV
6/10/2016GOLD AND OIL GOLD INDUSTRY - - CRUDE OIL PRICES LIKELY TO FORCE GOLD PRICES UP
WHETHER OIL RISES OR FALLS; SAUDI ECONOMIC PLAN WEAKNESSES
6/10/2016CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EPS
ESTIMATES; LOWER CASH COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
6/9/2016VALEVALE: HIGHER IRON ORE PRODUCTION AND LOWER 2016 CAPEX OFFSET
BY LOWER NICKEL, COPPER, AND COAL FORECASTED PRICES
5/27/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME TWELVE OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015
SHOWS MORE EXPANSIONS THAN SHUTDOWNS AS PRICES REBOUND
5/27/2016IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - ESTIMATED GLOBAL IRON ORE MARKET FALLS
INTO SHORTAGE
5/27/2016U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME
TOUGH INDUSTRY CLIMATE
5/25/2016TAHOE MODELSTAHOE RESOURCES FINANCIAL MODELS UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER
TAX AND ROYALTY RATES, LOWER 2017-2019 SILVER PRICES, AND LONGER
PERUVIAN AND CANADIAN ASSET MINE LIVES
5/25/2016TAHOE RESOURCES TIMMONS VISIT & PHOTOS TAHOE RESOURCES VISIT TO LAKE SHORE GOLD IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO
MAY 5TH AND TORONTO CORPORATE PRESENTATION MAY 4TH
5/25/2016GG TIMMONSGOLDCORP IMPLICATIONS IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO AFTER TAHOE
RESOURCES COMPLETED ACQUISITION OF LAKE SHORE GOLD
5/19/2016GOLD MINE OUTPUTGOLD INDUSTRY - - GLOBAL GOLD MINE OUPUT UP 4.8% IN FIRSTQUARTER
TRENDING TOWARDS NEW GLOBAL OUTPUT RECORD
5/18/2016NUCORNUCOR EARNING LESS THAN EXPECTED IN 8TH YEAR OF U.S. EXPANSION
5/18/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD ASSOCIATED WITH WESDOME PUT UP FOR SALE;
MARCH QUARTER RESULTS EXCELLENT SUGGESTING UPSIDES
5/18/2016GOLD STOCKSGOLD STOCKS SORTED FROM LEAST TO MOST EXPENSIVE BASED ON
PRICE-TO-NPV; TESTED UNDER $1,750 GOLD PRICES
5/13/2016OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES ENJOYS PROGRESS AT ODYSSEY, OBAN AND
FALCO RESOURCES
5/12/2016FOREST PRODUCTSFOREST PRODUCTS - - LUMBER AND ORIENTED STRAND BOARD PRICES
SURGE; REGIONAL OSB PRICE DISCOUNTS FALL ALMOST TO NIL
5/11/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER SALE OF CELLULOSE PULP SALE TRIGGERS TAXES DUE;
HIGHER WOOD PRODUCTS SEGMENT VALUES PER RISING WOOD PRICES
5/9/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. SALE OF DRC CONGO ASSETS CUTS DEBT AND
ALSO EARNINGS
5/7/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM LOWER CU PRICE ESTIMATES OFFSET BY LOWER
OPERATING COSTS; SALE OF KEVITSA & $2.5 B NONRECOURSE LOAN
PERMIT US TO EXCLUDE ADDITIONAL 20% SALE OF COBRE PANAMA
5/3/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SCRAP FLOWS HIGHER THAN DECEMBER QUARTER
5/2/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER ACQUIRES WY’S PULP BUSINESS FOR $2.2 BIL.
4/29/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME ELEVEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
CHINA RESTARTS STEEL & ALUMINUM OUTPUTS IN MARCH
4/29/2016METALS RISK-OFFMETALS - - IMPORTANCE OF MUCH STRONGER BALANCE SHEETS
4/29/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER OPERATING MARGINS TRIMMED IN PAPER AND
CONSUMER PACKAGING SEGMENT. ASIA CORRUGATED PACKAGING
SEGMENT TO BE SOLD IN Q2 2016
4/29/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: COPPER & OIL PRICE ESTIMATES LOWERED;
LOWER OIL COST ESTIMATES AND 2016 & 2017 CAP EX ESTIMATES
4/22/2016NEWMONTNEWMONT OPERATING COSTS AND SG&A LOWERED
4/22/2016METALS SCRAP METALS INDUSTRY - - MARCH QUARTER SCRAP FLOWS DID NOT RISE, BUT
JUNE AND SEPTEMBER SHOULD RISE
4/22/2016METALS CHINA MARCH OUTPUTMETALS - - CHINA UPSURGE IN REPORTED ALUMINUM AND STEEL OUTPUT
4/22/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC SALE OF 40% OF AG BUSINESSES CUTS DEBT MORE;
EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW LOWERED FROM LOWER METALS PRICES
4/20/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL OUTPUT IN CHINA RISES 12 MMT TO A RECORD; HIGHER PRICES
TOUGH TO SUSTAIN WITH SOFT DEMAND AND LOW OPERATING RATES
4/20/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM OUTPUT IN CHINA RISES SHARPLY IN MARCH AFTER POSSIBLE
RESTRAINT IN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
4/18/2016BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON: LOWER EARNINGS AND PRICE ESTIMATES PARTLY OFFSET
BY LOWER COSTS; DIVIDENDS AND CAP EX CUTS HELP CASH FLOW
4/15/2016METALS PRICESMETALS - - COMMODITIES PRICE REVISIONS FOR MARCH 31ST EARNINGS
RUSH AND REVISIONS
4/15/2016METALS IMPAIRMENTSMETALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - 2015 IMPAIRMENTS
EXCEED $123 BIL. IN WORST YEAR OR $0.5 TRILLION SINCE 2008
4/14/2016SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON MODEL UPDATED FOR LOWER 2016-2019 SILVER PRICES,
38.105 MILLION NEW SHARES, AND OTHER PORTFOLIO UPDATES
4/14/2016ALCOAALCOA EARNS LESS IN FIRTH RIXON, FORGED WHEELS, CONSTRUCTION
AND WE TRIM ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS
4/13/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS ENJOYS CONSISTENT VOLUMES, COST REDUCTIONS
AND DEBT REDUCTIONS
4/11/2016OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES MODEL UPDATED FOR SHORTER ELEONORE
MINE LIFE, 11.431 MM NEW SHARES, AND THE ISLAND GOLD ROYALTY
4/11/2016WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - WOR SURVIVES STEEL PRICE PLUNGE;
SHARE BUYBACKS TO MODERATE; PRICE TARGET RAISED
4/8/2016GOLDGOLD - - “SHORT SQUEEZE” BEHIND US AND GLD ETF BUYING SLOWS;
JUNE MID-YEAR SEASONAL SLOW PERIOD VERSUS CRISIS “EVENT RISKS”
4/8/2016METALS CAUCASUSMETALS - - “NAGORNO-KARABAKH” BLACK SWAN POSSIBLE EVENT RISKS
4/4/2016CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MID CAPSCONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MARCH 31ST “MID-CAP” TRACK
4/1/2016CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS LARGE CAPSCONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS MARCH 31ST “LARGE CAP” TRACK
3/30/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - NO CHINESE ALUMINUM OR ALUMINA DATA; GLOBAL
NONFERROUS APPARENT DEMAND STRONG WHILE USA WEAK
3/30/2016PACKAGING CORPORATIONPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: LOWER PACKAGING SEGMENT
PRICE REALIZATIONS HURT PRICE TARGET
3/30/2016WESTROCKWESTROCK LOWER CORRUGATED PACKAGING SEGMENT OPERATING
PROFITS WITH LOWER VOLUMES AND PRICES
3/29/2016CONF. REMARKS BY JOHNPRESENTATION TO OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE MARCH 31, 2016
HIGHLIGHTS PARTICULAR STOCKS WITH LOWER RISK PROFILES
3/29/2016BIG SIX NETDEBTMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2015, 2016 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore, and Teck)
3/29/2016CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY PRICING PRESSURES SQUEEZE MARGINS
3/25/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME TEN OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
INCLUDES 21 OPENINGS OF NEW PLANTS AMONG 27 SHUTDOWNS
3/24/2016ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN: LOWER PRICES DRIVE NEGATIVE ESTIMATED 2016
CASH FLOW DESPITE OUPTUT CUTS, ASSET SALES, AND NO DIVIDEND
3/23/2016DIVIDENDSMETALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - ALTERNATIVES IN SEARCH OF YIELD
3/23/2016METALS RATINGS CUTSMETALS - - SIX STOCKS DOWNGRADED FROM OVERWEIGHT CUTTING OUR
“BUY RATINGS” TO 13 FROM 19
3/22/2016FORTESCUEFORTESCUE METALS JV WITH VALE IMPACTS LIKELY AFTER 2018; SPOT
IRON ORE 20% AHEAD OF OUR FORECAST FOR 2016
3/20/2016KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD VISITS TO MACASSA, TAYLOR & HOLT MINES
FINDS “LESS IS MORE” STRATEGY AT MACASSA SUPPLEMENTED WITH
“BOLT-ON” ACQUISITIONS
3/20/2016KIRKLAND LAKE BIG PICTURE STRATEGYKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD VISITS TO MACASSA, TAYLOR & HOLT MINES
FINDS “LESS IS MORE” STRATEGY AT MACASSA SUPPLEMENTED WITH
“BOLT-ON” ACQUISITIONS
3/16/2016METALS & TRUMP POLICIESMETALS - - TRUMP REINDUSTRIALIZATION POLICIES MORE LIKELY
3/16/2016GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC CONTINUES TO TARGET FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION
DESPITE WEAKENED METALS PRICES
3/15/2016ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI NETANGLOGOLD ASHANTI NET DEBT CUT BY APPROXIMATELY 30% IN 2015;
WEAKER RAND AND A$ LOWER OPERATING COSTS
3/8/2016METALS TORONTO PDACMETALS - - HIGHLIGHTS OF TORONTO PROSPECTS AND DEVELOPERS ASSN.
CONVENTION
3/8/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS CUTS COSTS TO OFFSET LOW PRICES; RAISED
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX & DEBT
3/6/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA CUT MORE ALUMINUM & STEEL OUTPUTS;
SCRAP SUPPLIES FALL; NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ENCOURAGE METALS
3/4/2016RIO TINTORIO TINTO: MAKES LONG-TERM PLANS AT 2015 ACTUAL METALS PRICES
OR REBOUNDS OF UP TO 25% FROM TROUGH LOW SPOT PRICES
3/4/2016BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD AUTHORIZES FOUR PROJECTS TO LIMIT GOLD OUTPUT
DECLINE TO 4.5 MM OZ BY 2020: DEBT CUTS MADE DESPITE LOW PRICES
3/1/2016GOLD RESERVESGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESERVES FALL 8.8% IN 2015 AND 8.2% IN 2014 AFTER
13% DROP IN 2013 OR CUMULATIVELY 27.2%
2/26/2016FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM CUTS PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
TARGETS
2/25/2016GOLDGOLD - - GLD ETF BUYING CONTINUES STRONG LIKE 2005-10; CENTRAL
BANKS, BULLION ETFs, PRIVATE INVESTORS SWAMP GOLD MARKETS
2/23/2016FRANCO-NEVADAFRANCO-NEVADA PRICE TARGET RAISED $1 DUE TO THE $500 MM
ANTAPACCAY GOLD AND SILVER STREAM AND $920 MM EQUITY RAISE
2/23/2016SOUTHERN COPPERSOUTHERN COPPER CORP. MANAGING LOW PRICES WITH LESS DAMAGE
THAN SOME OTHERS
2/23/2016METALS SISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME NINE OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015;
INCLUDES 8 OPENINGS OF NEW PLANTS AMONG 32 SHUTDOWNS
2/23/2016TRUMP FOR METALSMETALS - - TRUMP REINDUSTRIALIZATION POLICY ALTERNATIVES IN USA
2/18/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES BUYS LAKE SHORE GOLD TO ESTABLISH A BEACH
HEAD IN TIMMONS, ONTARIO GOLD DISTRICT DIVERSIFYING GEOGRAPHY
2/16/2016IRON ORE SAMARCOIRON ORE INDUSTRY - - SAMARCO RESTART EARLIER THAN JANUARY 2018
AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED; BRAZIL MAY WITHDRAW 20 BIL REAIS FINE
2/15/2016SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA CUTTING ALUMINUM & STEEL OUTPUTS IN
RECOGNITION OF FALLING DEMAND; WEAK $ AND FALLING SUPPLIES
2/15/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: SALE OF 13% OF MORENCI AMONG “WORST
CASE OUTCOMES”
2/14/2016METALS RUSSIAMETALS - - RUSSIAN PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES MUCH HEALTHIER
THAN STEEL, ALUMINUM OR NICKEL PEERS IN THE AMERICAS
2/12/2016ALCOAALCOA PREDICTS $0.5 BILLION 2016 EBITDA GAIN FROM ENGINEERED
PRODUCTS AS IT IDLES MOST OF REMAINING U.S. SMELTING
2/12/2016GOLDGOLD - - STRONG CENTRAL BANK DEMAND, BOOM IN BULLION ETF BUYS
AND NEW PRIVATE/RETAIL INVESTORS MASSACRE THE SHORT SELLERS
2/9/2016INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER “DOUBLE FALSE EXPECTATIONS” AS SHARES
ANTICIPATE A COLLAPSE
2/7/2016GOLDGOLD - - U.S. $, BASE METALS AND GOLD EACH REVERSE TREND AND
EACH DIVORCE FROM CRUDE OIL, INFLATION OR CHINA DEMISE
2/5/2016FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS CUTS COSTS TO OFFSET LOW PRICES; RAISED
EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX & DEBT
2/3/2016NORBORD SCOTLAND PROJECTNORBORD’S $135 MM INVERNESS, SCOTLAND OSB EXPANSION TO ADD 325
MM SQ FT OF OSB CAPACITY OR $0.5 BIL. SALES AFTER MID-2017
2/1/2016METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - VOLUME EIGHT OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS SINCE AUGUST 2015
1/29/2016METALS SUBSTITUTIONMETALS - - MATERIALS SUBSTITUTIONS AS PRICES OR VOLUMES CHANGE
1/29/2016SOUTH 32SOUTH 32: LOWER METALS PRICE AND NEAR TERM OUPUT ESTIMATES CUT
NEAR TERM EARNINGS AS CASH BALANCES FALL TO CUT NPV MODEL
1/27/2016GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY- -GG, AEM, KGLIF, NGD, DRGDF SENSITIVITY TO C$ @$0.50
1/25/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - CHINA CUTS OUTPUT MORE; U.S. DEMAND DATA
FALLS MORE; SCRAP STEEL PRICES AND U.S. OPERATING RATES RISE
1/23/2016ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY SURPLUS FALLS AS CHINA’S OUTPUT PLUNGES
1/22/2016ALUMINA LTDALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES AND ALUMINA
REFINERY CURTAILMENTS PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
1/22/2016FREEPORT-McMORAN INCFREEPORT-McMORAN INC.: PREVIEW OF JANUARY 22ND CONFERENCE CALL
AND JANUARY 15TH CUTS TO 2016 COMMODITY PRICE ESTIMATES
1/21/2016TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES EVALUATED IN CONTEXT OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE
ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITIES OF OUR CHOOSING
1/16/2016COPPER PRICE REVISIONSCOPPER COVERAGE UNIVERSE EARNINGS REVISIONS TO LOWER 2015 and
2016 COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES
1/18/2016METALS PRICE REVISIONSMETALS PRICE REDUCTIONS FOR 2016 FORECASTS
1/15/2016ATI LABORALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES FLAT-ROLLED LABOR RECONCILIATION AND
SETTLEMENT ALTERNATIVES
1/14/2016ATI FLAT-ROLLED STRATEGYALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES FLAT-ROLLED DIVISIONAL STRATEGIES TO
FIND MORE TONS AND REVENUES TO THRIVE AND SURVIVE
1/14/2016ATI MODELSALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES REVENUES, VOLUMES AND EARNINGS FALL
1/11/2016ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD SUFFERS AS RUBICON’S PHOENIX PROJECT GOLD
RESOURCES CUT TO 0.41 MM FROM 3.35 MM OZ
1/11/2016STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - TENTATIVE U.S. STEEL LABOR CONTRACT “A DRAW”
1/8/2016WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER SUM OF PARTS VALUATION FOR WY $3.86 B HIGHER
THAN THE MIDPOINT OF “FAIRNESS OPINION” BY MORGAN STANLEY
1/8/2016VALEVALE: LOWER COSTS AND DEBT AVOIDANCE IN 2016 KEY TO “INVESTOR
DAY” MESSAGE; LOWER METALS PRICE ESTIMATES INCORPORATED
1/7/2016TECKTECK: CANADIAN SPOT CRUDE OIL PRICE BENCHMARKS AT US $1-$14/BBL
OR US $20-$30 DISCOUNTS TO WTI IMPACTING OIL SANDS VALUES
12/30/2015 METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY TIGHTENING AS MORE SHUTDOWNS EVOLVE
12/30/2015 SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - LATE-DECEMBER PRICE RISES AS CU, PB, ZN, STEEL INVENTORIES LEAN BUT DECEMBER SEES AL, NI, PB INVENTORY RISE
12/29/2015 METALS 2016 OUTLOOKMETALS: 2016 STRATEGY TOWARDS “OUT-ON-A-LIMB” OR “OUT-OF-THEMONEY” STOCKS OR BASE METALS
12/23/2015BHP BILLITON OVERVIEWBHP BILLITON LIKELY LOWER CAP EX AS LOW PRICES STRAIN SINGLE A
BOND RATING AND “PROGRESSIVE DIVIDEND”
12/23/2015BHP BILLITON COPPERBHP BILLITON LONG-TERM OUTLOOK OF COPPER DIVISION
12/21/2015SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT DUE TO LOWER OUTPUT
ESTIMATES FOR CERTAIN PROPERTIES AND LOWER GOLD PRICES
12/21/2015STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - UNION LABOR RELIEF DEALT A SETBACK; MORE
LOUSY DEMAND DATA
12/15/2015NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING EMPHASIZES NEW PRIORITIES IN EXPLORATION AND
“BOLT-ON” SMALL PROJECTS APPENDAGES TO EXISTING BIG MINES
12/14/2015METALS INDUSTRYMETALS INDUSTRY - - NO NONFERROUS METALS SEASONAL SECONDHALF
SLOWDOWN NOR INVENTORY GLUTS LIKE WORLD COLLAPSE
12/14/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY TIGHTENING AS MORE SHUTDOWNS EVOLVE
12/14/2015ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD SENSITIVITY TO POSSIBLE ZERO VALUE FROM MT MILLIGAN
AND RUBICON’S PHOENIX PROJECT
12/14/2015THOMPSON CREEK METALSTHOMPSON CREEK METALS FACES 2017-18 DEBT MATURITIES AND
POTENTIAL CASH FLOW SHORTFALL
12/8/2015FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS LOWERS COSTS OFFSET BY LOWER PRICES; CUT
EARNINGS ESTIMATES BUT HOLD SAME PRICE TARGET WITH LESS CAP EX
12/2/2015IRON ORE INDUSTRYIRON ORE INDUSTRY APPROACHING BALANCE IN SIMULATION OF WORLD
STEEL INDUSTRY 5% 2015-16 DROP FOLLOWED BY 2% GROWTH
12/1/2015SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON: ANTAMINA SILVER STREAM WITH GLENCORE BUILD
INTO MODEL AND POST- 2020 HUDBAY’S 777 MINE DELETED; SENSTIVITY
TO SPOT SILVER AND GOLD PRICES.
12/1/2015RIO TINTORIO TINTO: SIMULATED AT “SPOT” AS WELL AS FORECASTED PRICE
REBOUNDS; IRON ORE AND COPPER MARKETS CLOSELY BALANCED
12/1/2015SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINA LOST 1-2% WORLD AL & STEEL MARKET SHARES;
MOST INVENTORIES DECLINE; SPRING 2016 SUPPLIES IN U.S. DOUBTFUL
11/30/2015GOLDCORPGOLDCORP LARGER DEPRECIATION, LOWER RED LAKE OUTPUT AND
BORDEN OUTPUT DELIVERED TO PORCUPINE MILL IN UPDATED MODELS
11/24/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD ACHIEVES DEBT REDUCTION GOALS DESPITE ADVERSE
PRICE CLIMATE; TOUGH 2016-2017 PRICE OUTLOOK
11/24/2015CAMECOCAMECO: SOLAR, SUN, RENEWABLES ENERGY CHALLENGES URANIUM,
COAL, OIL & GAS AS CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS SO INFLUENTIAL
11/23/2015GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - “BLACK SWAN” EU EVENTS GROW LIKELIER AFTER
NOVEMBER 13TH PARIS TRAGEDIES; “EUROSKEPTICS” GAIN CLOUT AND WE
EXPECT NEW CALLS FOR EXITS FROM EUROZONE
11/23/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY SHORTAGES PLAUSIBLE IN 2016 IF DEMAND RISES, A
HARSH WINTER DISRUPTS SUPPLY OR WITH UNEXPECTED MISHAPS
11/23/2015TECKTECK: EARNINGS BENEFIT FROM LOWER LOWER EXCHANGE RATES AND
COST CUT INITIATIVES; SALE OR “GIVEAWAY” OF OIL SANDS ANALYZED
11/19/2015KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD TO ACQUIRE ST ANDREW GOLDFIELDS; OCTOBER
QUARTER MINE OUTPUT FALLS SHORT
11/16/2015GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - OUTLOOK FOR 2016 IMPROVES AS JEWELRY UPTICKS
IN 3Q 2015 AND MINE OUTPUT TURNS DOWN IN 2015 SECOND-HALF
11/13/2015SOUTH 32SOUTH 32: LOWER METALS PRICE AND NEAR TERM OUPUT ESTIMATES CUT
NEAR TERM EARNINGS WHILE HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE CUTS NPV MODEL
11/13/2015STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - APPARENT DEMAND DOWN 8% OR 9.6 M.T. IN 2015
11/12/2015LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC SENSTIVITY OF EARNINGS AND NPV AT HIGHER 2016-
2018 OSB PRICE REALIZATIONS
11/10/2015PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER - - ACCEPTS 13.8% PREMIUM BID FROM WY
11/10/2015WEYERHAEUSERWEYERHAEUSER TO ACQUIRE PLUM CREEK AND STUDIES PULP EXIT
11/6/2015NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING FINANCIAL MODELS STRONGER WITH TANAMI
PROJECT, SURINAME NEARER COMPLETION, LOWER COSTS, OTHER GAINS
11/6/2015ALCOAALCOA PREDICTS $0.5 BILLION 2016 EBITDA GAIN FROM ENGINEERED
PRODUCTS WHILE IT IDLES MOST OF REMAINING U.S. SMELTING
11/6/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - INVENTORIES DROP NICE AND FAST AS (1) DEMAND
IMPROVES, (2) 1.11 MMT MINE OUPTUT CUTS ANNOUNCED AND (3) SCRAP
SUPPLIES PROBABLY DECREASING
11/5/2015ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER NEAR TERM PRICES TRIM ESTIMATES;
INCLUDED CENTINELA SECOND CONCENTRATOR ACCRETIVE TO EPS
11/3/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - MINE SHUTDOWNS DRIVE ACCELERATED INVENTORY
DECLINES IN OCTOBER; SHORTAGES POSSIBLE IN 2016 FIRST-HALF
10/30/2015NORBORDNORBORD SENSITIVITY TO SHARE BUYBACK AND OSB PRICE RISES
10/29/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS - - SUPPLY SHORTAGES PLAUSIBLE IN 2016 IF DEMAND RISES, A
HARSH WINTER DISRUPTS SUPPLY OR WITH UNEXPECTED MISHAPS
10/29/2015WESTROCKWESTROCK PRODUCTION CURTAILMENTS CUTS HURT FOURTH-QUARTER
COSTS EARNINGS ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY
10/28/2015METALS QUADRUPLEMETALS OFFER “QUADRUPLE WIN” AS TAX SELLING TRADES, SPRING
SEASONAL, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OUTPUT CUTS COINCIDE
10/28/2015NUCORNUCOR SHOULD EARN MORE IN 2016 IN ALL THREE SEGMENTS
10/27/2015ALCOAALCOA UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM UNDERWEIGHT ON THE BASIS
OF LOWER UNIT COSTS, SEPT. 28TH BREAKUPS AND POSSIBLE FOLLOW-ONS
10/26/2015VALE SUDBURYVALE: LOWER ESTIMATED IRON ORE COSTS AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
GENERATE HIGHER LONG TERM EARNINGS ESTIMATES
10/23/2015PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA:PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: HIGHER OPERATING COSTS IN
BOTH PACKAGING AND PAPER SEGMENTS BASED ON Q4 2015 OUTLOOK
10/15/2015KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD FINANCIAL MODELS INCORPORATE C$400 MM FOR
A SHAFT BUILT IN 2019 AND 2020 AND LOWER GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
10/15/2015LUNDIN MININGLUNDIN MINING EXTENDS HIGH GRADE RESOURCES AT CANDALARIA &
EAGLE; VISIT TO CANDALARIA SEPTEMBER 21-22ND; CASH FLOWS SOLID
10/12/2015HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS FINANCIAL MODEL HURDLES INCLUDE UNUSUAL
WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS, ACQUISITIONS, ROSEMONT AND CAP EX
10/10/2015SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON: ASSUMED HEADQUARTERS MOVE IN EARLY 2018
SOLVES FUTUTRE TAX ISSUES; GOLD AND SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES CUT
10/10/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. CHANGES TO PRICE TARGET IF A 100% SPLIT
DEMERGER STRUCTURE IS MOST SHAREHOLDER FRIENDLY
10/9/2015FRANCO-NEVADAFRANCO-NEVADA INVESTS $610 MM FOR A SILVER STREAM ON TECK’S
22.5% PORTION OF ANTAMINA.
10/9/2015METALS DISTRESS ZINC & STEEL CLOSURES METALS - - ZINC UP 11% AND LEAD UP 6% ON OCT. 9TH AFTER GLENCORE
CUTS ZINC OUTPUT 0.5 MMT OR 3.7% IN 13.6 MMT MARKETS
10/6/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. ORGANIZES TWO SEPARATE BOARDS AND
STUDIES 100% DEMERGER, WHICH IMPROVES TAKEOVER APPEALS
10/6/2015FIRST QUANTUMFIRST QUANTUM: PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $14 DUE TO ESTIMATED
LOWER DILUTION, DISCOUNT RATE, CAP EX, OP EX AND EXTERNAL FUNDS
10/4/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AS ALUMINUM GETS WORSE
10/4/2015TAHOE RESOURCESTAHOE RESOURCES SHARES ANTICIPATE “BAD SURPRISES” THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN; LOWER SILVER PRICES AND HIGHER SUSTAINING CAPEX
9/30/15First QuantumFIRST QUANTUM: COVERAGE INITIATED WITH AN OVERWEIGHT RATING;
LONG TERM CASH GENERATIONS OUTWEIGH GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
9/28/2015AEM EL BARQUENOAGNICO EAGLE MINES EL BARQUENO PROJECT TOUR IN MEXICO NOTES
AND PICTURES
9/28/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. TO SELL 2ND $1 BILLION IN COMMON STOCK;
STILL SEEKS OIL AND GAS JV OR IPO; COMMODITY PRICES STILL LOW
9/25/2015ALCOAALCOA: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS
ESTIMATES; LOWER ESTIMATED REFINED ALUMINA WITH SURALCO GONE
9/22/2015NGEx RESOURCESNGEx RESOURCES HAS 21 BIL LBS CU & 15.6 MM OZ OF GOLD FOR SALE
9/21/2015AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES CANADIAN MALARCTIC AND GOLDEX TOURS SEPT.
7TH ; GOLDEX “OWN ORE” EXTENSIONS TO 2025-30 MAY DELAY SATELLITE
OPPORTUNITIES AMONG VAL D’OR JUNIORS
9/17/2015GOLDCORP ELEONOREGOLDCORP MODELS UPDATED FOR LOWER GOLD PRICES, “CORRIDOR” AUCU-
MO JV AND SEPTEMBER 8TH VISIT TO ELEONORE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC
9/16/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AND CUT COSTS
9/16/2015GLENCORE PLCGLENCORE PLC RAISES EQUITY CAPITAL, TO SELL ASSETS, CUTS COSTS,
CUTS CAP EX, OMITS DIVIDENDS AND TARGETS MUCH LOWER DEBT
9/14/2015METALS PRICESMETALS - - THIRD PRICE FORECAST REDUCTIONS IN 2015
9/11/2015NORBORDNORBORD UPGRADED AS SHARE PRICE FALLS; NO COMPETITION FROM,
SALES TO OR DIRECT EXPOSURE TO CHINA
9/11/2015METALS HISTORICAL VOLATILITYMETALS: PLATINUM, PALLADIUM, NI AND MO HAVE HIGHEST VOLATILITY;
AL & NI VOLATILITIES ROSE DURING 1988-2002 DISINFLATION ERA AFTER
CRUDE OIL PLUNGED IN 1986 WHILE CU & MO WERE THE SAME
9/7/2015METALS INDUSTRIESMETALS INDUSTRIES - - EVIDENCE OF INVENTORY BUILDING IN
ALUMINUM, NICKEL, ZINC AND OCC SCRAP CARDBOARD
9/7/2015CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EPS
ESTIMATES; LOWER NEAR TERM OPERATING COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
9/7/2015ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - CHINESE OUTPUT UP 18.3% OR 5 MMT ANNUAL
RATE IN FACE OF DECLINING CHINESE DEMAND SWAMPS MARKETS
CAUSING US TO CUT OUR PRICE FORECASTS AND EPS
9/1/2015AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES MEADOWBANK AND AMARUQ TOUR AUGUST 20TH;
MINE LIFE GAINS AT AMARUQ OFFSET BY THE REMOVAL OF UPPER
BEAVER AND 2017 ONWARD PRODUCTION FROM LAPA
8/31/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - WE UPGRADE 9 STOCKS TO OVERWEIGHT AT LOW
PRICES INCLUDING 4 FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES LESS VULNERABLE
TO CHINA, 4 COPPER-RELATED STOCKS AND U.S. STEEL
8/28/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS COMPANIES RATIONALIZE SLOWLY AND CUT COSTS
8/28/2015RIO TINTORIO TINTO: LOWER METALS PRICES HURT EARNINGS BUT ARE PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY LOWER OPERATING COSTS
8/28/2015INTERNATIONAL PAPERINTERNATIONAL PAPER UPGRADED DUE TO SHARE PRICE FALLING
8/27/2015WEYERHAEUSER WYWEYERHAEUSER WY $28.00 rated Overweight up from Neutral with $36 price target
maintained
8/27/2015FCXFCX CHANGES MAY OCCUR MORE QUICKLY AS CARL ICAHN CONTROLS
8.46%; A COMPLETE SHARE-FOR-SHARE DEMERGER BETTER FOR FMOG
8/26/2015GALWAY GOLDGALWAY GOLD: PERMITTING CONTINUES AND NEIGHBORING WEAKER
DEPOSIT SUBJECT TO TWO BIDDERS
8/26/2015HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS LOWER CU, ZN, AU, AG, MO PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER
EARNINGS, BUT THE SHARE PRICE FELL EVEN MORE
8/25/2015ANTOFAGASTA PLCANTOFAGASTA PLC: LOWER GOLD AND MOLYBDENUM PRICE ESTIMATES;
INCLUSION OF ZALDIVAR INTO MODELS ACCRETIVE
8/24/2015U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME
TOUGH INDUSTRY CLIMATE
8/24/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD MAKES A CONVENTIONAL CEO ROLE; MODELS REBUILT
FOR ZALDIVAR, ROYAL GOLD, 6 U.S. DEPOSIT SALES AND LOWER COSTS
8/17/2015METALS DISTRESSMETALS MARKETS CLOSURES NOT PROLIFIC IN AUGUST FIRST HALF,
WHERE CHINA DEVALUES 4% TO EXPORT AND INCREASE OUPTUT
8/17/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS OF VARIATION IN CHILEAN COPPER MINE
AVERAGE DAILY OUTPUT FROM JANUARY 2000 THROUGH MAY 2015
8/13/2015WESTROCKWESTROCK EARNINGS INCREASED DUE TO HIGHER 2016 ONWARDS
ESTIMATED PRICES IN CORRUGATED PACKAGING AND CONSUMER
PACKAGING SEGMENTS; CAP EX HIGHER
8/12/2015FCX TAXFCX TAX CONSOLIDATION, LARGE OIL & GAS NOL AND WHETHER A
COMPLETE SHARE-FOR-SHARE DEMERGER BETTER FOR FMOG
8/12/2015FREEPORT-McMORAN INC.FREEPORT-McMORAN INC. PREVENTS $3.3 BILLION IN DEBT BUILDUP
IGNORING ANY MORE ASSET SALES OR POSSIBLE FMOG IPO
8/11/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES IMPLICATIONS OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
$37 BILLION BID FOR PRECISION CASTPARTS
8/6/2015SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SPOT PRICES AND SHARE PRICES AT OR BELOW 2009
DISTRESS OR RECESSION LEVELS; MORE SHUTDOWNS
8/5/2015FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. RATING RESTORED TO OVERWEIGHT
SUPPLEMENTAL DISCUSSION; A MOLY MINE MANAGER FOR FMOG CEO
8/4/2015FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. RATING RESTORED TO OVERWEIGHT MODELED
“NO ASSET SALES;” TARGET & ESTIMATES SHAVED ON PRICES; FMOG OF
DECLINING SIGNIFICANCE
8/3/2015WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - ARMSTRONG WORLD REPORTS ANOTHER
QUARTERLY DECLINE IN EQUITY INCOME FROM WAVE CEILINGS
8/3/2015TECKTECK TO BENEFIT FROM 3.3 MMT IDLING BY PEABODY IN AUSTRALIA,
ALPHA REORGANIZATION AND OTHER CHANGES BENEFIT MET COAL
8/3/2015COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - SURVEY OF 14 PUBLIC MINERS SHOWS FIRST-HALF
COSTS ABOUT UNCHANGED AND FIRST-HALF MINE OUTPUT UP 1.8%
7/31/2015METALSMETALS MARKETS SEE SOME OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCES, NEW CAP EX
PROGRAMS, “EVALUATIONS” OF CUTS AND NOT SO MANY CUTS
7/31/2015IRON OREIRON ORE PRICES EXCEED EXPECTATIONS FOR VALE, KUMBA, BHP,
FORTESCUE & CLF AUSTRALIA, WHILE CLF IN USA DISAPPOINTS
7/28/2015BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD BLACK-SCHOLES ANALYSIS AS AN ALTERNATIVE
POSSIBLY OVERLY GENEROUS VALUATION METHOD AT $9.74/SHARE
7/27/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INSIDERS BUY ALMOST $1 MM IN COMMON
STOCK SINCE JULY 21ST EARINGS REPORT
7/27/2015METALSMETALS MARKETS SEE TWO LARGE SCALE OUTPUT CUTS LAST WEEK
7/24/2015PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA: HIGHER CAPEX ESTIMATES
HURT NPV; LOWER COSTS RAISE EPS ESTIMATES
7/24/2015ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES NEW UPSIDES IN FORGINGS SALES & UNION
BENEFITS CHANGES MORE THAN OFFSET NAGGING NEAR TERM ITEMS
7/20/2015METALS PRICESMETALS PRICES TRADE BELOW 2008-09 LOWS FOR IRON ORE, MET COAL,
HOT-ROLLED SHEET, AND MOLY; PT AND AG NEAR 2008-09 LOWS AND
NONFERROUS BASE METALS CLOSE TO 2009 ANNUAL AVERAGES
7/17/2015TECK RESOURCESTECK EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT WITH LOWER ESTIMATED ZN, MO & AU
PRICES; UPDATED ANDACOLLO GOLD SALE BUILT INTO MODELS
7/17/2015ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD BUYS REMAINDER OF ANDACOLLO GOLD OUTPUT; LOCAL
ENVIRONMENTAL OJBECTIONS REVIEWED; LOWER GOLD PRICES
7/17/2015GOLD PRICEGOLD PRICE ESTIMATES LOWERED, PROMTING INVESTMENT
DOWNGRADES AT AEM, NEM, GG AND AU
7/16/2015DOMTAR CORPORATIONDOMTAR CORPORATION: ASHDOWN MILL CONVERSION TO FLUFF PULP
OUTPUT AND LOWER COSTS BASED ON Q1 2015 RESULTS
7/10/15Southern CopperSOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION: COVERAGE INITIATED WITH AN
OVERWEIGHT RATING DUE TO LONG TERM EARNINGS POTENTIAL AT
$3.50/LB ESTIMATED LONG TERM COPPER PRICES
7/8/15Worthington IndustriesWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - WOR SURVIVES STEEL PRICE PLUNGE;
SHARE BUYBACKS TO MODERATE; PRICE TARGET & ESTIMATES CUT
7/6/15South 32 SOUTH 32: LOWER MET COAL, AL and NI PRICES CLIP EARNINGS SLIGHTLY;
ALTERNATIVE “FLAT SPOT PRICE” SCENARIO ANALYZED
7/5/15Containerboard IndustryCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY: FIRST QUARTER 2015 REALIZATIONS DOWN
$35/TON FROM THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2014
7/5/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK “NO” VOTE AFTERMATH
7/5/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - CHANGES IN OFFICIAL RESERVES DOCUMENT 1.5%
QUARTERLY SHIFT TO U.S. DOLLAR; GOLD GAINS 0.0133% PER MONTH
7/2/15ArcelorMittalSTEEL INDUSTRY: VISIT TO THE MONT WRIGHT IRON ORE MINE, PORT
CARTIER, PELLET PLANT AND ARCELORMITTAL STEEL PRESENTATIONS
6/28/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - DECLINES IN YTD APPARENT DEMANDS FOR STEEL, CU,
NI, PB, ZN, AU “FEEL LIKE A RECESSION”
6/27/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK NEGOTIATIONS WITH IMF, ECB, GERMANY, ETC.
6/26/15Agnico Eagle MinesAGNICO EAGLE MINES: MELIADINE PROJECT REMOVED AS AGNICO EAGLE
MAY FOCUS ON HEAP LEACH AND ADD ON PROJECTS
6/26/15Teck ResourcesTECK EARNINGS ESTIMATES REDUCED AS A RESULT OF LOWER
ESTIMATED COPPER, COAL, ZINC, LEAD, and GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
6/23/15South32SOUTH 32: COVERAGE INITIATED
6/19/15Osisko Gold RoyaltiesOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES PRICE TARGET CUT WITH ELEONORE ORE
GRADES; OSISKO TO ADVANCE AND DEVELOP ITS OWN ASSETS TOO
6/18/15Barrick GoldBARRICK GOLD FAVORABLE INDICATIONS OF BIDDING WAR FOR
ZALDIVAR COPPER MINE SALE; ALTURAS DISCOVERY DISCUSSION
6/17/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - SCRAP PRICES, IRON ORE PRICES, INVENTORIES AND
LOWER IMPORTS SIGNAL UPTURN; CHINESE EXPORTS, STRONG DOLLAR,
MET COAL AND SOME PRICES LAG UNFAVORABLY
6/16/15Gold IndustryGOLD INDUSTRY - - QUARTERLY PRICES AVERAGE < $1,200
6/15/15AntofagastaANTOFAGASTA PLC PROFILE FOR CORPORATE GROWTH; SALE OF WATER
UTILITY SUGGESTS LARGER 2015 SPECIAL DIVIDEND
6/15/15Allegheny TechnologiesALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES JUNE 30TH LABOR CONTRACT EXPIRATION
HAS MUCH ACRIMONY AS COMPANY FACES NONUNION COMPETITORS
6/11/15BHP BillitonBHP BILLITON: DEMERGER OF SOUTH 32 FULLY INCORPORATED INTO OUR
MODELS UPDATING DE-MERGER ESTIMATES MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2014
6/10/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING ACQUIRES CRIPPLE CREEK, CO MINE, SEEKS
UNDERGROUND BONANZA TARGETS & ISSUES 33.35 MM COMMON SHARES
6/9/15Newmont Mining ConceptualNEWMONT MINING ACQUIRES CRIPPLE CREEK, CO MINE, SEEKS
UNDERGROUND BONANZA TARGETS & ISSUES 33.35 MM COMMON SHARES
6/8/15Polymet MiningPOLYMET MINING PERMITS LIKELY AROUND YEAR-END, WHERE TIMING
OF PROFITS PUSHED TOWARDS 2018 SECOND-HALF
6/8/15Northern DynastyNORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS SUES EPA FOR MALFEASANCE IN NOVEL
PERMIT STRATEGY; RENEWED LOOK AT PROJECT UPSIDES
6/4/15Louisiana PacificLOUISIANA PACIFIC FOCUSES ON OSB WOOD SIDING MARKET AT VISIT TO
TWIN HARBORS, MN OSB WOOD SIDING MILL 25 MI NORTH OF DULUTH
6/1/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - EVIDENCE OF MANUFACTURING RECESSION IN CHINA,
U.S. OR GLOBALLY
5/29/15Century AluminumCENTURY ALUMINUM - - LOWER LME INGOT AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER FUTURE EARNINGS
5/29/15Alumina LimitedALUMINA LTD: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS
ESTIMATES; PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER ESTIMATED OPERATING COSTS
5/29/15AlcoaALCOA: LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
ESTIMATES CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES; LOWER ESTIMATED OPERATING
COSTS PARTIALLY OFFSET
5/29/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - TOO MUCH CHINESE OUTPUT SWAMPS MARKETS
CAUSING US TO CUT OUR PRICE FORECASTS, EPS, TARGETS, RATINGS
5/28/15Lundin Mining Spanish News Search LUNDIN MINING SPANISH LITERATURE SEARCH CONCERNING
ENVIRONMENTAL CHARGES IN CHILE
5/28/15Lundin MiningLUNDIN MINING ENVIRONMENTAL CITATIONS IN CHILE
5/26/15Barrick GoldBARRICK GOLD : WE RAISE OUR DISCOUNT RATE TO 11% DUE TO
EVOLUTION OF “HOLDING COMPANY” FORMAT WITH LESS OPERATORSHIP
5/26/15Fortescue MetalsFORTESCUE METALS: LOWER COSTS AND CAP EX PARTLY OFFSET LOWER
PRICES; CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND PRICE TARGET
5/26/15Louisiana PacificLOUISIANA PACIFIC LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
HIGHER PROFITABILITY IN THE SIDING SEGMENT
5/18/15Lundin MiningLUNDIN MINING: LOWER Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb, Au and Ag PRICES CUT 2015 and 2016
EARNINGS ESTIMATES; LOWER OPERATING COSTS CUSHION THE BLOW
5/18/15NorbordNORBORD NEAR TERM EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT DUE TO LOWER OSB
PRICE ESTIMATES; THREE YEARS WITHOUT EARNING DIVIDEND MAY
PROMPT A 2016 DIVIDEND CUT
5/18/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION TO MATCH OUR TARGET
5/18/15Plum Creek TimberPLUM CREEK TIMBER - - FAVORABLE COMMENTS FROM CHARLESTON, SC
FIELD TRIP MAY 11-12TH
5/15/15Vale SensitivityVALE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO LOWER 2016-20 SCENARIO WITH 343 MMT
ANNUAL IRON ORE OUTPUT, $56 BENCHMARK Fe, $6.50 Ni AND $2.75 Cu
5/13/15Big Six Net DebtMETALS - - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED 2015, 2016 AND 2020 YEAR-END
BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SIX LARGE DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANIES
(BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, GlencoreXstrata PLC, and Teck)
5/11/15ValeVALE: LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, NICKEL, AND COPPER PRICES CUT
5/11/15WeyerhaeuserWEYERHAEUSER COPES WITH VERY LOW SELLING PRICES
5/11/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - ANEMIC DEMAND AS CONSUMERS AND PRODUCERS
5/1/15Iron OreIRON ORE - - MAJOR PRODUCERS TREND TO 10% OUTPUT GAIN IN 2015
5/1/15Flat $1,200/oz GoldGOLD INDUSTRY - - STUDY OF NPVs AT A FLAT $1,200/OZ GOLD PRICE
5/1/15Lower Gold Price EstimatesGOLD INDUSTRY - - LOWERING SEVERAL EARNINGS ESTIMATES TO
4/30/15Barrick Gold ZaldivarBARRICK GOLD - - ZALDIVAR COPPER MINE AND WATER VALUATIONS
4/29/15Kirkland Lake GoldGOLD PRICES; EXPLORATION TO DEFINE MINE EXPANSION ALTERNATIVES
4/28/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. OIL & GAS IPO PROTECTS BOND RATING,
BALANCE SHEET AND CUTS PRICE, EXPLORATION AND EXECUTION RISKS
4/27/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 9% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUMS
4/21/15Barrick Headquarter LocationsBARRICK GOLD SENSITIVITY OF HQ LOCATIONS FOR SAVING EXECUTIVE
TIME AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO SELLING MINES
4/21/15Barrick Financial ModelsBARRICK GOLD, LOWER GOLD PRICES AND ASSUMED SALE OF ZALDIVAR
FOR $1 BILLION LOWER OUR NPV ESTIMATE
4/17/15ImpairmentsMETALS AND RELATED RESOURCE INDUSTRIES - - 91 IMPAIRMENT
INCIDENTS FOR 2014 AVERAGE $756 MM EACH TO TOTAL $68.8 BILLION
4/16/15Copper DealsCOPPER INDUSTRY - - COMPARISON OF “PEAK” AND “RECENT” M&A
TRANSACTION VALUES
4/13/15Franco NevadaFRANCO NEVADA - - LOWER GOLD PRICES AND OIL AND GAS REVENUES
HURT EARNINGS ESTIMATES; PRICE TARGET INCREASED METHODOLOGY
DEBATED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 TIMES NPV/SHARE.
4/13/15Anglo AmericanANGLO AMERICAN: LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, PLATINUM, RHODIUM,
AND COPPER PRICES CUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND VALUATION
4/7/15Newmont MiningNEWMONT MINING HIGHER PRODUCTION, LOWER CASH COST ESTIMATES,
AND LOWER SUSTAINING CAPEX ESTIMATES OFFSET LOWER PRICES.
4/7/15Spot Markets SPOT MARKETS - - NO SPRING RECOVERIES AS CHINA HIKES OUTPUTS OF
AL, STEEL, REFINED CU, MOLY, LEAD MINES, ZINC MINES AND REFINED ZN
4/5/15Conference: Mid Cap Gold and Silver HighlightsConference: Mid Cap Gold and Silver Highlights
4/2/15Conference: Natural Resource Room Highlights HIGHLIGHTS OF THE “NATURAL RESOURCES ROOM” PRESENTATIONS AT
OUR ANNUAL MARCH 30, 2015 CONFERENCE
4/1/15Conference: Large Cap HighlightsHIGHLIGHTS OF “LARGE CAPS” AT OUR MARCH 30TH CONFERENCE
4/1/15Conference: Core Shack Highlights“CORE SHACK” GEOLOGICAL DISPLAYS AT MARCH 30, 2015 CONFERENCE
3/29/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 20% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUMS
3/29/15John Tumazos Presentation at the ConferencePRESENTATION TO OUR ANNUAL CONFERENCE MARCH 30, 2015
HIGHLIGHTS FIVE PARTICULAR STOCKS
3/26/15GlencoreGLENCORE PLC LOWER METALS AND ENERGY PRICE ESTIMATES CUT
EARNINGS ESTIMATES; ESTIMATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES LOWERED
3/24/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - SPOT DYNAMICS CLOSER TO CYCLICAL LOWS, BUT
UPSIDE RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
3/24/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. MAKES 84% DIVIDEND CUT AS PRECURSOR TO
MANY MEASURES TO MAINTAIN INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT RATING
3/24/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - 20% GAIN IN CHINESE SMELTER OUTPUT FORCES
UP INVENTORY TO CRUSH BOTH LME PRICE AND MIDWEST PREMIUM
3/24/15AlcoaALCOA ACQUIRES TITANIUM SUPPLIER, STUDIES ASSET EXITS AND CHINA
RAISES SMELTER OUTPUT 19.9% YTD CAUSING MARKET OVERSUPPLY
3/23/15MetalsMETALS - - CHINA RAISES OUTPUT IN 2015 WITHOUT ENOUGH DEMAND
3/16/15Copper IndustryCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MINE INVESTMENT TO PLUNGE AS SEVERAL
COMPANIES BREACH COVENANTS OR SUFFER RATING DOWNGRADES
3/12/15GoldcorpGOLDCORP FORECASTS CUT DUE TO LOW PRICE ESTIMATES; IMPAIRMENT
ANALYSES ON COCHENOUR AND ELEONORE; ELEONORE ROCK BURST
3/11/15Toronto PDAC 2015METALS - -METALS PRICES UNDERMINE TORONTO GEOLOGY CONFERENCE
3/9/15Century AluminumCENTURY ALUMINUM - - ALUMINUM PRICES FALL WITH HIGH CHINESE
EXPORTS; ALCOA STUDIES SALE OR SHUTDOWN OF 0.5 MMT SMELTING;
3/6/15Silver WheatonSILVER WHEATON ADDITIONAL 25% OF SALOBO’S GOLD PRODUCTION HAS SMALL IMPACT
ON SLW’S NPV/SHARE; LOWER GOLD AND SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES
3/5/15Rio TintoRIO TINTO: WEAKER A$ LOWERS IRON ORE COSTS TO BOAST EARNINGS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES; LOWER NET DEBT EQUIVALENTS HELP
3/1/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - “SPRING RALLIES” ABSENT IN STEEL, PAPER, WOOD
WHILE BASE METALS ARE “LATE;” INVENTORY DECLINES SLOW; CHINA
SELLS STOCKPILES, EXPORTS MORE AND CANCELS EXPORT TAXES
2/27/15Fraser InstituteMETALS INDUSTRY - - FRASER INSTITUTE TAGS TWELVE LESS RISKY
NATIONS; BRAZIL SEEKS $1.5 BILLION FROM SIX PETROBRAS SUPPLIERS
2/27/15Alumina LimitedALUMINA LTD: ALUMINA BOTTLENECK LASTS JUST SIX MONTHS IN JUNENOV.
2014 DESPITE INDONESIAN BAUXITE BAN; LOWER ESTIMATED 2015
OUTPUT CUTS NEAR TERM EARNINGS; RATING AND PRICE TARGET CUT
2/27/15Gold ReservesGOLD INDUSTRY - - RESERVES FALL 7.4% IN 2014 AFTER 13% DROP IN 2013
2/26/15Fortescue Metals FORTESCUE METALS: 2015 CAPITAL EX AND C1 COST ESTIMATES CUT;
LONG TERM IRON ORE PRICE DISCOUNT TO BENCHMARK REDUCED
2/26/15Worthington IndustriesWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES - - FEBRUARY 24TH WARNING SUGGESTS $0.50
PER SHARE OF FY 2015 EPS RISKS; SHARE BUYBACKS MAY BE OFFSET
2/25/15GoldcorpGOLDCORP -- LOWER GRADE AND OUTPUT AND HIGHER OPERATING
COSTS AT ELEONORE; DISCOUNT RATE RAISED BY 1%.
2/25/15Osisko Gold RoyaltiesOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES PRICE TARGET CUT WITH ELEONORE ORE
GRADES; OSISKO TO ADVANCE AND DEVELOP ITS OWN ASSETS TOO
2/19/15RockTennROCKTENN EARNINGS ESTIMATES DOWN 10%-25% DUE TO A HIGH SHARE
COUNT WITH MERGER; CHEMICALS SPINOFF VALUED AT $1,875 MM.
2/19/15Teck Transportation DiscussionTECK RESOURCES - - CONSTRUCTION OF “UPGRADER” TO PRODUCE
SYNCRUDE AN ALTERNATIVE TO PIPELINE OR RAIL AT ADDED $2 BILLION
CAP EX TOWARDS 20% OF FORT HILLS
2/19/15Teck ResourcesTECK OIL SANDS PROJECTS MODELED IN DEPTH; COPPER, COAL, ZINC, and
GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES UPDATED
2/13/15Kirkland Lake GoldKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD DEFINES CONSERVATIVE FINANCIAL STRATEGY
2/12/15CamecoCAMECO: LOWER FUTURE ESTIMATED SPOT URANIUM PRICES LOWER
ESTIMATED EARNINGS; URANIUM NEAR NIL SHARE OF NEW GENERATING
2/11/15Spot MarketsSPOT MARKETS - - CUT 2015 NONFERROUS BASE METALS PRICE ESTIMATES
DUE TO STRONG DOLLAR AND “SYMPATHY” TO CRUDE OIL, DESPITE
APPARENT DEMAND UP AND MINE OR REFINED SUPPLIES MOSTLY TIGHT
2/9/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - FEBRUARY SCRAP DECLINES ARE A NEGATIVE NOT A
POSITIVE FOR ANY OF THE STEEL-RELATED COMPANIES
2/5/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - ALMOST A $100/TON DROP IN FEBRUARY SCRAP ! ! !
2/4/15Packaging Corporation of AmericaPACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA LOWER Q1 2015 CONTAINERBOARD OUTPUT DUE TO
MAINTENANCE OUTAGES; BOISE SYNERGIES AT $200 MM FROM $175 MM.
2/4/15Corporate Income Tax Rate METALS, FOREST PRODUCTS AND FERTILIZERS - - PRESIDENT OBAMA
PROPOSES TO CUT CORPORATE TAX RATE TO 28% FROM 35%
1/30/15Royal Gold ROYAL GOLD; SHARE
PRICE GAINS, GOLD PRICE, PENASQUITO AND MT. MILLIGAN GOOD NEWS.
1/30/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. WRITEDOWNS, LOWER 2015 COPPER
PRICE ESTIMATES, LOWER OIL/GAS PRICES AND OUTPUT, AND DILUTION
FROM AN ESTIMATED $3 BILLION EQUITY OFFERING COMBINE TO SLASH
EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
1/29/15Steel IndustrySTEEL INDUSTRY - - STRONGER DOLLAR HURTS SOME CUSTOMER END
MARKETS; STRONG DECEMBER QUARTER EARNINGS WHERE SOME
SELLING PRICES ROSE, PERHAPS AGREED EARLIER WITH TIME LAGS
1/27/15Weyerhaeuser WEYERHAEUSER POTENTIAL EARNINGS SHORTFALLS OR “HEADWINDS” IN 2015
1/26/15Gold MarketGOLD - - GERMAN AND FRENCH LOSSES FROM BAILOUTS AND ECB BOND
BUYING COULD BE LARGER THAN THEIR HARD CURRENCY RESERVES
1/26/15RockTennROCKTENN “START FROM
GROUND ZERO” WITH NEW MODEL AFTER MERGER
1/22/15AntofagastaANTOFAGASTA PLC HIGHER COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES GENERATE HIGHER EPS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
1/22/15Nonferrous PricesNONFERROUS METALS - - WE MAINTAIN ABOVE-CONSENSUS 2015
NONFERROUS PRICE FORECASTS
1/21/15Goldcorp GOLDCORP UPDATED MODELS AFTER JANUARY 12th-19th PRESS RELEASES AND
JANUARY 16TH BREAKFAST
1/21/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. MORE STUDY OF OIL AND GAS CAP EX CONTRACT COMMITMENTS, “FULL
COST” TESTS BY SEPT 30TH AND “SLACK” AT OTHER OIL COMPANIES TO JV
1/19/15Freeport McMoranFREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. PREVIEW OF CONFERENCE CALL JAN. 27TH CHOICES BETWEEN HIGHER
DEBT VERSUS SLASHING CAP EX OR CUTTING DIVIDEND
1/15/15Aluminum IndustryALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - ALCOA’S WORLD ALUMINA AND WORLD INGOT
OUTPUT FORECASTS FOR 2015 A VERY HIGH SUPPLY OR OUTPUT LEVEL
1/12/15GlencoreGLENCORE PLC LOWER MET COAL, THERMAL
COAL, AND OIL PRICES PRODUCE LOWER EARNINGS ESTIMATES
1/12/15Gold Greek Euro ExitGOLD INDUSTRY - - GREEK EXIT FROM EURO
1/11/15AlcoaALCOA PHINERY ALUMINUMAIR
BATTERY GOAL “TWO SMELTERS” OF HIGH PURITY ALUMINUM
1/7/15Plum Creek TimberPLUM CREEK EARNINGS ESTIMATES DECREASED DUE TO LOWER HARVEST VOLUMES
AND LOWER LAND SALES, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SHARE REPURCHASES
1/5/15Nonferrous MetalsMETALS INDUSTRY - - CHINA MASS LIQUIDATION OF NONFERROUS ORES,
CONCENTRATES AND STOCKPILES
12/30/15NorbordNORBORD-AINSWORTH DEAL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
NPV/SHARE AT OUR BASE CASE OSB PRICING ESTIMATES
12/30/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF US $22.41 and NBD.to C$25.83 rated Overweight with US $33 up
from $31.50 price target) AINSWORTH DEAL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
NPV/SHARE AT OUR BASE CASE OSB PRICING ESTIMATES
12/30/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - MYSTERY OF CHINESE AL SMELTER OUTPUT UP
10.1% WITH WORLD BAUXITE MINES DOWN 20.6%
12/29/2014NICKEL INDUSTRYNICKEL INDUSTRY - - CHINESE STAINLESS OUTPUT UP 13.0% IN FIRST NINE
MONTHS AS CHINA DRAWS DOWN UP TO A FULL YEAR OF Ni INVENTORY
12/26/2014ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIESALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $35.09, rated Overweight, price target cut to $44
from $54) EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT; ESTEEM AT LOW EBB WITH MOODY’S
BOND RATING CUT TO SUB-INVESTMENT GRADE; WORLD STAINLESS
CONSTRAINED BY Ni
12/24/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - MINE OUTPUTS OF Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt MAY NOT
REBOUND MUCH OR ENOUGH IN 2015 AFTER 2014 DECLINES
12/22/2014CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FALLING COSTS AND GOOD CORPORATE
DEVELOPMENTS VERSUS CAPACITY ADDITIONS
12/19/2014HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $8.20; Rating Neutral; Price Target $9/share )
HIGHER ESTIMATED COPPER PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
DRIVE HIGHER EARNINGS ESTIMATES; PRICE TARGET FLAT WITH HIGH
SUSTAINING CAP EX AND CONSERVATIVE NPV MODELLING
12/19/2014WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $31.36, rated Overweight, price target cut to
$59 from $62) BUYING OPPORTUNITY AFTER FALLS IN CRUDE OIL AND
STEEL MARGINS; A 7.5% CONSOLIDATED EBIT MARGIN ACHIEVABLE
12/17/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - SELLING PRICES FALL, NO SCRAP RISE IN ONSET OF
WINTER AND EXCEPTIONAL STRONG FINAL DEMAND IN U.S.A.
12/16/2014DIVIDENDSMETALS, FOREST PRODUCTS AND FERTILIZERS - - REVIEW OF DIVIDENDS
12/15/2014VALEVALE ( $7.03; rated Overwieght, price target up to $16/share from $13/share) CAP EX
CUTS ADD $4/SHARE VALUES, COST CUTS ADD MORE AND HELP OF MITSUI
JV IN MOZAMBIQUE COAL ADDS FREIGHT WHILE OFFLOADING DEBT
12/15/2014ANGLO AMERICANANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $8.91, rated NEUTRAL and price target reduced to
$10/share from $12/share) LOWER COAL, IRON ORE, GOLD, and PLATINUM
PRICES DRIVE EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND VALUATION DOWN PARTLY
OFFSET BY LOWER CAPITAL EX
12/10/2014DOMTARDOMTAR (UFS: $41.13 rated Neutral with $51.50 down from $52.50 price target)
0.55% HIGHER DISCOUNT RATE REFLECTING UNCOATED FREE SHEET AND
PERSONAL CARE MARKET RISKS; $40/TON COMMUNICATIONS PAPER PRICE
CUT ESTIMATED FOR 2015.
12/10/2014PRETIUM RESOURCESPRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG U.S. $6.14; rated Neutral; no price target) CASHED UP
TO BEGIN ENGINEERING AND ADVANCE PROCUREMENT
12/8/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $16.95, rating Overweight, Price Target $23) ALUMINUM THIN STRIP
MICROMILL FOR AUTO BODY PROPOSED
12/4/2014NUCORNUCOR (NUE $55.13, rated Underweight, Price Target cut to $37 from $43) LOWER
STEEL PRICES DUE TO STRONG DOLLAR AND RECORD STEEL IMPORTS
12/3/2014TAHOE RESOURCES INCTAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $14.07, rated Neutral with $12 down from $15
price target) VARIOUS ROYALTIES INCREASED TO 10.5% FROM 5.5%
12/1/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINES AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $23.49 rated Overweight with $42 up from $39 price
target) EL BARQUENO PRODUCTION DOUBLED, MELIADINE OUTPUT NOW
EXPECTED IN 2019 UP FROM 2021
11/26/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - -BOOM LOOMING IN 2016-20 AS BAUXITE,
ALUMINA AND REFINED METAL STOCKS GETTING USED UP
11/26/2014VALEVALE ( $9.47; rated Overwieght, price target lowered to $13/share from $15/share)
FINISHING CARAJAS S11d “Serra Sul” WHILE WEATHERING IRON ORE PRICE
AND VOLUME SHORTFALLS; IPO OF CU-NI VALUED AT $20 BILLION
REQUIRING INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS OF $10 Ni and $3.50 Cu
11/26/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SUPPLIES FALLING AS COMPANIES REACT TO LOW
PRICES AND/OR POOR RETURNS; Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt VERY PROMISING
11/24/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - DEFECTS IN COMPETITION OR INSUFFICIENT
COMPETITION CREATE “NONSENSICAL” PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
11/24/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES RAISED TO $3.25 FROM
$3.00 FOR 2016-18 AND REITERATE BUY RECOMMENDATIONS; DEMAND
GROWTH NEAR 7% OUTSTRIPS “NO GAIN” IN 2014 MINE OUTPUT
11/24/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $27.84, rating Overweight; price target raised to $45
from $37/share) HIGHER ESTIMATED DIRECT/LOWER TOLL SALES AND
LOWER FUTURE POWER COSTS AT MOUNT HOLLY INCREASES EARNINGS
AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
11/20/2014SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD (SAND $3.05, rated Overweight, Price Target reduced to $5 from
$6) 17% GOLD STREAM ON LUNA GOLD’S AURIZONA MINE RESTRUCTURED
TO A 10% REVENUE ROYALTY AT GOLD PRICES ABOVE $1,350/OZ
11/19/2014SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON (SLW $21.35 rated Neutral, $24 down from $26 price target)
LOWER LONG TERM SILVER PRICE ESTIMATES PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
MODEL ACCRETION AND MINOR PRODUCTION REVISIONS
11/18/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $47.25, rated Underweight, Price Target Cut to $40 from 48) MINERS
DEBATE WHETHER TO CUT MINE OUTPUT AS STEEL OUTPUT SLOWS; PRICE
TARGET AND ESTIMATES CUT TO REFLECT 2% LESS 2015 OUTPUT @ $60/T
11/18/2014SPOT MARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - SUDDEN REVERSALS AFTER SHORTS SQUEEZED; BROAD
EVIDENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DECLINE IN CHINA IN SEPT. AND OCTOBER
11/17/2014GOLD ETF HIDDEN VALUEGOLD INDUSTRY - - THE SHAREHOLDERS OWN THE “GLD” ETF, WHICH
COULD BE SOLD TO REPAY A SMALL BIT OF THE WGC MEMBERS’ DEBTS
11/17/2014OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES (OKSKF US $13.25, OR.to C$15.25) UPGRADED TO
OVERWEIGHT WITH US $17 UP FROM US $14 PRICE TARGET ON VIRGINIA
MINES ACQUISITION
11/13/2014TAHOE RESOURCES INC.TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $15.86, rated Neutral with $15 down from $29
price target ) PRICE TARGET CUT DUE TO LOWER SILVER PRICES, HIGHER
COSTS PER TONNE AND LOWER MINE PLAN ORE GRADE
11/12/2014ROYAL GOLDROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $65.64 rated Overweight with $66 price target cut from $68)
LOWER GOLD OUTPUT FROM ANDACOLLO AND LOWER GOLD PRICES
MOSTLY OFFSET BY FAVORABLE ORE GRADES AT MT. MILLIGAN AND
FORECAST 2020 PRODUCTION FROM EUROMAX’S ILOVITZA PROJECT
11/10/2014U.S. STEELU.S. STEEL (X $37.57, rated Underweight down from Neutral, price target raised to $26
from $18) GOOD COMPANY INTERNAL DYNAMICS BATTLING TOUGHER
INDUSTRY CLIMATE
11/7/2014ANGLOGOLD ASHANTIANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (AU $9.82; rated Neutral with $14 down from $18 price
target) HIGHER COSTS AND LOWER GOLD PRICES; OBUASI REMOVED FROM
OUR SIMULATIONS UNTIL NEW MODERN MINE PLAN IS ESTABLISHED
11/3/2014IRON OREMETALS INDUSTRY - - TIMING OF IRON ORE AND MET COAL OUTPUT CUTS
TOO SLOW AS CHINA’S STEEL CONSUMPTION FALLS
11/3/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $2.93bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target
lowered from $7.50 to $5) NOTES FROM OCTOBER 21-23 TOURS OF PORT, RAIL,
KINGS, FIRETAIL AND CLOUDBREAK MINES; MODELS UPDATED FOR 10%
DECLINE IN CHINA’S OUTPUT IN CALENDAR 2015 AT $70 BENCHMARK
11/2/2014GOLD AND SILVER RATINGSGOLD INDUSTRY - - RATING CHANGES DUE TO SHARE PRICE CHANGES
10/31/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - CENTRAL CONTROL STRATEGIES REVERSED AFTER
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES BOUGHT 4 MINES FROM ABX AND NEM
10/30/2014CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRYCONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY - - FALLING COSTS AND GOOD CORPORATE
DEVELOPMENTS VERSUS CAPACITY ADDITIONS
10/29/2014FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC.FREEPORT-McMoRAN INC. (FCX $29.01, rated Overweight, price target cut from $72
to $40) OVERWEIGHT RATING MAINTAINED DESPITE FALL IN PRODUCT
PRICES WHILE MORE CONSERVATIVE VALUATION METHODOLOGY
LOWERS PRICE TARGET
10/28/2014GOLDCORPGOLDCORP (GG $21.98; rated Overweight, price target $31 down from $36)
ELEONORE DRILLING ACTIVITY VERY LARGE; CAMINO ROJO CAP EX
COULD BE GG’S LARGEST.
10/22/2014AGNICO-EAGLE MINESAGNICO-EAGLE MINES (AEM $30.31 rated Overweight from Neutral with $39 up
from $37 price target) PRICE TARGET RAISED DESPIE LOWER 2014-16
ESTIMATED GOLD PRICES DUE TO EL BARQUENO AND AMARUQ OUTPUT,
LONGER MINE LIFE AT PINOS ALTOS AND 2ND EXPANSION AT KITTILA.
10/17/2014ROCK TENNROCK TENN (RKT $47.07, rated Overweight from Neutral, $63 price target) SEEKS
TO RUN LEAN & REINVEST, ACQUIRE OR BUY BACK STOCK TO KEEP DEBT
NEAR 2X EBITDA
10/15/2014CHINA DEMAND VS FE AND MET COALMETALS INDUSTRY - - TIMING OF IRON ORE AND MET COAL OUTPUT CUTS
TOO SLOW AS CHINA’S STEEL CONSUMPTION FALLS
10/13/2014CF INDUSTRIESCF INDUSTRIES (CF $256.99; rated Neutral; price target $201) VOLUMES, PRICES
AND BUYBACKS FAVORABLE IN 2014; YARA INT’L REQUIRES COST CUTS
10/10/2014FRANCO NEVADAFRANCO NEVADA ($51.26 rated Neutral with $44 down from $47 price target) $648
MILLION GOLD AND SILVER STREAM ON LUNDIN’S CANDELARIA COPPER
MINE IN CHILE; LOWER NEAR TERM GOLD PRICE ESTIMATES
10/10/2014PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $60.76, upgraded to Overweight
from Neutral, Price Target $81) UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT
10/9/2014SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - DOLLAR STRENGTH VERSUS SOME SUPPLY CUTS
10/5/2014GOLD EMERGING ROYALTIESGOLD INDUSTRY – THREE SMALLER STREAMING/ROYALTY COMPANIES
ADDED TO COVERAGE AS BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
10/5/2014OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIESOSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES (OKSKF US $12.47, OR.to C$14.10) COVERAGE
INITIATED WITH NEUTRAL INVESTMENT RATING AND US $14 PRICE
TARGET
10/5/2014SANDSTORM GOLDSANDSTORM GOLD (SAND US $4.04 rated Overweight with $6 price target)
COVERAGE INITIATED WITH OVERWEIGHT INVESTMENT RATING AND US$
$6 PRICE TARGET
10/4/2014VIRGINIA MINESVIRGINIA MINES (VGQ.TO C$12.28 and VGMNF US $10.87) COVERAGE
INITIATED WITH A BUY RECOMMENDATION AND A US $15 PRICE TARGET
10/3/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $15.60, rating Overweight, Price Target $23) POSSIBLE BAUXITE
ALUMINA JV OR ACQUISITION OF VOTORANTIM’S BRAZILIAN ALUMINUM
10/2/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWCMY $5.82, rated Overweight, price target raised to $11 from
$10) FIRM DEMAND AND FALLING INVENTORIES PROMPT HIGHER PRICE
TARGET; CHINESE OUTPUT FIRMER THAN EXPECTED
10/1/2014WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIESWORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES (WOR $37.11, rated Overweight, price target $62)
HISTORICAL MARGINS IN STEEL PROCESSING AND CYLINDERS VERSUS
APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATE OR PRICE-EARNINGS MULTIPLE
10/1/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $58.59, rated Neutral, price target lowered to $65/share from
$68/share) ANALYSIS OF COMPANY POST-SPINOFF; COMPARISONS OF BHP
BILLITON AND BHP NEWCO FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS
9/23/2014GALWAY GOLDGALWAY GOLD (GAYGF US $0.054 or GLW.to C$0.06, rated Overweight with $1
down from $2 price target maintained) WAITING FOR COMPLETION OF
ARBITRATION AND LIQUIDATION OF BATISTA ESTATE
9/23/2014ECO OROECO ORO (GYSLF US$0.22 or EOM.TO C$0.25), DELETED FROM COVERAGE AS
CASH BALANCES USED UP SUGGESTING NEED TO CHANGE DIRECTION
9/16/2014DENVER GOLDGOLD INDUSTRY - - DENVER GOLD FORUM TALKS UPBEAT SURPRISINGLY
9/16/2014ALCOAALCOA (AA $16.16, rating Overweight, Price Target Raised to $23 from $22) HIGHER
LME AL INGOT PRICE ESTIMATES RAISE EARNINGS TO 2017, WHILE HIGHER
ESTIMATED ALUMINA OPERATING COSTS IN 2018-19 TRIM “TWIN BOOMS”
9/15/2014TECKTECK (TCK $21.35, rated NEUTRAL; price target $22) HIGHLIGHTS OF SEPT. 9TH
OIL SANDS AND COAL PRESENTATIONS; MODELS UPDATED FOR PRICES
9/15/2014SILVER WHEATONSILVER WHEATON ($23.02, rated Neutral, with $26 from $29 price target) HEALTHY
DESPITE LOWER PRICES AND PROJECT DELAYS
9/12/2014BHP BILLITON NEW CO.BHP BILLITON (BHP $65.18; rated Neutral, price target $68) ANALYSIS OF
PROPOSED “NEWCO” SPINOFF INCLUDING ESTIMATED OPERATING
EARNINGS AND POTENTIAL VALUATION
9/8/2014CENTURY ALUMINUMCENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $28.66, rating raised to Overweight and price target to
$37 from $16/share) RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT DUE TO DROP IN POWER COSTS
AND BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR ALUMINUM
9/8/2014GOLD INDUSTRYGOLD INDUSTRY - - DEMAND POOR IN 2014 AND STRONG U.S. DOLLAR
WITH LOW REPORTED INFLATION DISCOURAGES INVESTMENT DEMAND
9/8/2014IMPAIRMENTSBASIC INDUSTRIES - - IMPAIRMENT CHARGES FALL IN 2014 AS EXPECTED
9/8/2014KIRKLAND LAKE GOLDKIRKLAND LAKE GOLD (KGLIF U.S. $4.85, rated Overweight, price target raised to
US $17 from US $12.50 price target) HIGHER GRADES AND INCORPORATION OF
500 TON/DAY SHALLOW RAMP AT 0.30 OZ/TON IN FY 2017 CREATES VALUE
9/5/2014SPOTMARKERSSPOT MARKETS - - GLOBAL GROWTH RATES SLOW AS EU STEEL OUTPUT
FELL IN JULY AND CU, NI AND ZN DEMAND HAVE SUMMER DOLDRUMS
9/5/2014LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC (LPX: $14.29 rated neutral with $18 price target maintained)
GRADUAL RATHER THAN RAPID RECOVERY IN OSB PRICING ESTIMATED;
SIDING CONVERSION AND 3RD CHILEAN MILL PROJECTS UNDER STUDY
9/5/2014LOUISIANA PACIFICLOUISIANA PACIFIC (LPX: $14.29 rated neutral with $18 price target maintained)
GRADUAL RATHER THAN RAPID RECOVERY IN OSB PRICING ESTIMATED;
SIDING CONVERSION AND 3RD CHILEAN MILL PROJECTS UNDER STUDY
9/3/2014STEEL INDUSTRYSTEEL INDUSTRY - - GALLATIN STEEL THIN SLAB MINIMILL FOR SALE
8/29/2014OSB INDUSTRYFOREST PRODUCTS - - NORTH AMERICAN OSB PRICES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER GRADUALLY THROUGH 2021 AS HOUSING STARTS INCREASE
8/29/2014ALUMINUM INDUSTRYALUMINUM INDUSTRY - - SPECIFICS OF WORLD BAUXITE OUTPUT WITH
INDONESIA IDLE INDICATE PENDING SHORTAGES
8/27/2014NORBORDNORBORD (NBRXF US $21.22 rated Overweight with US $32 down from $42 price
target) LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS AND NPV; OSB
PRICE EXPECTATION EMBEDDED IN STOCK PRICE ESTIMATED AT $221/000
SQ FT FOR 2015-2022
8/27/2014HUDBAY MINERALSHUDBAY MINERALS (HBM US $10.24; Rating Neutral; Price Target RAISED from
$6/share to $9/share) ROSEMONT PROJECT INCORPORATED INTO MODELS,
RESULTING IN HIGHER FUTURE EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
8/27/2014RATINGS CHANGES FOLLOW ON 082214 FROM 012314NORBORD (NBRXF US $21.22 rated Overweight with US $32 down from $42 price
target) LOWER OSB PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS AND NPV; OSB
PRICE EXPECTATION EMBEDDED IN STOCK PRICE ESTIMATED AT $221/000
SQ FT FOR 2015-2022
8/22/2014DULUTH METALSDULUTH METALS (DULMF US $0.296, rated Overweight,$2 to$5 price target with no
models) PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY NOT ACCEPTABLE OWING TO
ORE GRADE MEASUREMENT, RECOVERY RATES OTHER THAN COPPER TOO
LOW, SCALE OF OPERATION AND EXCESS CAP EX
8/13/2014BARRICK GOLDBARRICK GOLD (ABX $19.18 rated Underweight with $14 up from $12 price target)
LOWER EXPLORATION, LOWER S,G,+A, AND LOWER CASH OPERATING
COSTS DRIVE HIGHER NPV AND POST 2015 EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/10/2014VALEVALE (VALE $13.83, Rating OVERWEIGHT, Price Target cut to $15 from $22)
CONVERSIONS TO PELLETS TO UPGRADE QUALITY AND PRICING; SEVERE
CUTS DUE TO LOSSES IN FERTILIZER & COAL, LESS COPPER GROWTH, LESS
NICKEL OUTPUT AND IRON ORE COMPETITION
8/9/2014NEWMONT MININGNEWMONT MINING (NEM $26.39 rated Neutral with $23 up from $22 price target
maintained) CONTINUES TO CUT COSTS; MERIAN CAP EX AND INDONESIAN
ARBITRATION OFFER “LITTLE JOY”
8/9/2014FORTESCUE METALSFORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $4.16 bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target
lowered from $7.50 to $6) LOWER REALIZED IRON ORE PRICE ESTIMATES
LOWER CURRENT AND FUTURE EARNINGS ESTIMATES
8/4/2014COPPER INDUSTRYCOPPER INDUSTRY - - MAY YTD APPARENT DEMAND GROWTH AT 9.3% IN
EUROPE, 22.5% IN CHINA AND 3.3% FOR REMAINDER OF WORLD OUTSTRIPS
SUPPLY; DEGREE OF SEASONAL DROP IN SECOND-HALF IMPORTANT
8/4/2014AGNICO EAGLE MINESAGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $37.39, rated Neutral, $37 price target) GUIDANCE
STEP-UPS DID NOT MEET EXPECTATONS
8/3/2014FREEPORT-McMoRANFREEPORT-McMoRAN (FCX $36.78, rated Overweight, price target $72) 2014
THROUGH 2017 COPPER PRICE ESTIMATES RAISED; HIGHER ROYALTIES,
DUTIES AND INDONESIAN OWNERSHIP LITTLE IMPACT ON MODELS
7/30/2014SPOTMARKETSSPOT MARKETS - - CHINESE JUNE STEEL, ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA
OUTPUTS SURGE DESPITE TIGHTER ENVIRONMENAL RULES
7/29/2014PLUM CREEK TIMBERPLUM CREEK TIMBER (PCL $42.65 rated Overweight with $47 price target
maintained) HIGHER LAND BASIS FOR REAL ESTATE SALES MOSTLY OFFSET
BY HIGHER SOUTHERN HARVEST VOLUMES
7/29/2014ALUMINA LTD.ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $5.97, RATING OVERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET RAISED
TO $10.00 from $6.00); SIMULATION OF TWIN BOOM 2018-19 $2/LB LME
YEARS BOOSTS TARGET
7/28/2014ABX CHILE WATER DISPUTEBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.51 Underweight rating, $12 price target) WATER
QUALITY VIOLATIONS AND OBJECTIONS TO PASCUA-LAMA PERMITS
FROM CHILEAN PERSPECTIVE
7/25/2015RGLD WITHOUT PASCUA WITH B.C. RISK DISCUSSIONROYAL GOLD (RGLD: $78.07 rated Neutral from Overweight with $67 down from $75
price target) PASCUA-LAMA REMOVED FROM LONG-TERM SIMULATION AND
JUNE 26TH COURT DECISION CONCERNS MT. MILLIGAN
7/25/2014PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICAPACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (PKG $67.77 rated Neutral with $81 up
from $64 price target) LOWER OPERATING COST ESTIMATES BASED ON
SYNERGIES AND THE START UP OF THE DERIDDER MILL IN Q4 2014;
HIGHER PACKAGING SEGMENT REALIZATION ESTIMATES BASED ON Q2
2014 RESULTS AND ASSUMED FLAT PACKAGING PRICING THROUGH 2017.
7/24/2014BHP BILLITONBHP BILLITON (BHP $73.57, RATING REDUCED FROM OVERWEIGHT TO
NEUTRAL, price target cut from $83 to $68) LOWER LONG TERM IRON ORE
PRICE ESTIMATES DUE TO GREATER ESTIMATED DISCOUNTS TO
BENCHMARK RESULT IN LOWER ESTIMATED EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW
7/23/2014RATINGS CHANGESMETALS AND FOREST PRODUCTS - - “THINNING” OUR OVERWEIGHT
RATINGS TO FOCUS ON HIGHER POTENTIAL COMPANIES
7/23/2014ABX STRATEHGY OVERVIEWBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.84, rated Underweight from Neutral with $12 down from
$16 price target) MAJOR POLICY DECISION ITINERARY TO 2016 WHOMEVER
RUNS THE COMPANY
7/23/2014ABX FINANCIALSBARRICK GOLD (ABX $18.84 rated Underweight from Neutral with $12 down from
$16 price target) NPV/SHARE DECLINES DUE TO THE REMOVAL OF PASCUA
LAMA, LOWER 2014 AND 2015 ESTIMATD GOLD PRICES, HIGHER CASH
OPERATING COSTS AT KEY MINES, AND RECOVERY LOSSES
7/22/2014RIO TINTORIO TINTO (RIO $57.40, RATING LOWERED TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM
NEUTRAL, price target lowered to $48 from $55/share) ESTIMATED REALIZED
IRON ORE PRICES LOWERED FOR 2014 ONWARD; HIGHER AL PREMIUMS
AND SIMULATION OF “TWIN BOOM YEARS” IN 2018 AND 2019 INTRODUCED