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Recent Medi a Coverage of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

 

    • What should a president who represents Pittsburgh stand for?
      June 4, 2017
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
         http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2017/06/04/president-trump-Pittsburgh-paris-climate/stories/201706040146

      “When Trump said in Cleveland last July that he wanted to put steelworkers and coal miners back to work, I cried I was so happy,” said John Tumazos, a Wilkinsburg High and Carnegie Mellon graduate.Mr. Tumazos is a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst. Facts about the pain China has inflicted on Pittsburgh and U.S. manufacturers roll easily off his tongue. China accounts for 49 percent of global steel capacity, 56 percent of global aluminum smelting capacity, and 55 percent of stainless steel capacity, he said. The Paris climate change accord would have only made matters worse, Mr. Tumazos said.

      “There is some uncertainty about the science. I think Obama is treasonous and cut a horrible deal,” he said. “We should not shut down our factories so that India and China can continue to grow.”

      Mr. Tumazos took exception to Pittsburgh’s Bill Peduto joining about 175 other mayors in pledging to support the climate agreement.

      “I wish there was an impeachment procedure for this fellow Peduto who some jerks in Pittsburgh elected mayor,” he said.

       

    • Arconic,  Elliott Management end bitter proxy fight
      May 22, 2017
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/05/22/Arconic-hedge-fund-strike-peace-deal-Elliott-Alcoa-pittsburgh/stories/201705220108Wall Street’s subdued response to the agreement comes after Arconic shares ran up 21 percent after Elliott launched the proxy contest in late January. John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst, said the increase was spurred by the prospect of Elliott working some magic. He said that will be difficult given the disparate nature of Arconic’s businesses, which include making parts for jet engines, wheels, fasteners and titanium.“It’s hard to tell what specialty the new CEO should come from,” Mr. Tumazos said.He said Arconic will benefit from putting the dispute behind it.
    • USS needs more than new CEO: analysts
      May 11, 2017
      American Metal Market
      By Michael Cowden“It’s not fun when you lose $180 million. … It’s even less fun to lose $180 million when everyone else is swimming in cash,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.U.S. Steel blamed the loss on production problems at its North American flat-rolled mills. Those problems appear to be centered around the company’s rolling operations, although it’s hard to say that with certainty because investors have been kept largely in the dark, Tumazos said.“We understood what the problems were. It was clear that U.S. Steel understood what they were. And it was clear when they fixed them,” Tumazos said. “These issues that they’ve had last year and into this year have not been clearly described.”That’s disconcerting, because the rolling problems don’t stem from the bad weather—which hurt integrated mills across the Great Lakes in 2014—but might instead result from a changing product mix to which U.S. Steel may be struggling to adapt, Tumazos said.“That (skelp) is gone. And now they’ve got stuff that’s not as hard to roll as titanium, but in that direction,” Tumazos said.Many AHSS grades had not been invented as recently as 10 years ago, and retrofitting old equipment to make those grades won’t be easy, Tumazos added. “The auto market for steel is changing faster now than at any time since Henry Ford invented the automobile,” he said.

      U.S. Steel has said it will complete upgrades to its flat-rolled operations by 2020. In the meantime, its competitors will be making gains in both steel and aluminum, Tumazos warned.

    • U. S. Steel’s Longhi retires as CEO after rough quarter
      May 10, 2017
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/05/10/US-Steel-CEO-retires-Longhi-out-after-rough-quarter/stories/201705100217“It is a surprise that the board didn’t pick a rolling mill metallurgist or an operations guy or technologist familiar with the specific technical challenges that the last few months of results seem to reflect,” said John Tumazos, an analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.
    • U. S. Steel shares slide on loss, investment plan
      April 26, 2017
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/04/26/U-S-Steel-shares-loss-investment-plan-pittsburgh/stories/201704260154?pgpageversion=pgevoke“They should have raised their guidance because prices and volumes in the market look better than they did 90 days ago,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J.-based analyst.U.S. Steel blamed the performance in part on operational issues at its mills. Mr. Tumazos believes those issues could be more serious than investors realized.
    • Coming home: Alcoa to move headquarters from New York to Pittsburgh
      April 19, 2017
      TribLive
      By: Aaron Aupperlee
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/12211633-74/coming-home-alcoa-to-move-headquarters-from-new-york-to-pittsburgh
    • Alcoa moving its headquarters back home to Pittsburgh
      April19, 2017
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By: Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2017/04/19/Alcoa-coming-home-Pittsburgh-aluminum-headquarters/stories/201704190181
    • Taiwanese steelmaker considering US mill
      April 18, 2017
      American Metal Market
      By: Grace Lavigne

      The reported investment of $1.65 billion could be enough to build a stainless steel facility with melting and hot-rolling capabilities, and would be more than adequate for a stainless operation with just cold-rolling or finishing capabilities, according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“Even at $4 per pound, nickel is high value so stainless slabs carry the freight much better than carbon slabs,” Tumazos toldAMM.In terms of the current political environment, “building a new mill creates jobs,” he said. “The bigger question is whether the U.S. needs another stainless mill. There appears to be no business rationale to add another stainless mill in the U.S.”
    • Analysts see some challenges still facing the market
      Mar. 9, 2017
      AMM@AMM1882 Twitter

      Commercial aerospace volumes and prices are “unstable” raising short-term questions.

    • Trump  to drive US steel prices in 2017: poll
      Feb. 20, 2017
      American Metal Market
      By Millicent Dent

      “The people who are concerned about Mr. Trump might be following the Twitter flow or reading CNN too much,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said.Fluctuations in the prices of iron ore, metallurgical coal and scrap will be the largest drivers of steel prices, according to Tumazos. “I expect the raw materials that pass through the model of steel pricing to prevail. Steel prices are numbers.”
    • Northern Dynasty’s Pebble Project Has Been Assessed by Independent Experts as a Globally Important Copper/Gold Asset with Multiple Development Options for Commercial Success
      Feb. 17, 20174
      http://www.northerndynastyminerals.com/ndm/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=778879From Very Independent Research:
      The short seller report was neither a mining technical report nor very much new.
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC. February 15, 2017
    • Elliott Dials Back Arconic  Share Target a Week Into Board Fight
      Feb. 7, 2017
      The Wall Street Journal
      By: David Benoit and Bob Tita
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/elliott-dials-back-arconic-share-target-a-week-into-board-fight-1486506936

      John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst for Very Independent Research LLC, said Elliott’s cost forecasts oversimplify Arconic’s diverse set of business lines, expenses and end markets.

      “The cost structure is not going to be addressed by one action in one fell swoop because they’re in all these different business,” he said. “It isn’t like there’s a cookbook for best practices.”

    • Trump Reviving Fortunes for Mine Explorer With Zero Revenue
      Jan. 19, 2017
       Bloomberg
      By: Natalie Obiko Pearson
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/trump-makes-canadian-mine-explorer-with-zero-revenue-great-again“On Friday, Trump gets inaugurated — that’s a good thing,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, New Jersey-based independent mining analyst, who owns Northern Dynasty shares and believes the EPA under Trump will reverse a 2014 move to prevent Pebble from obtaining a permit. Nomination hearings began Wednesday for Trump’s pick to head the agency, Scott Pruitt, a climate-change skeptic who has called for “regulatory rollback.” That can’t happen soon enough for Northern Dynasty.“This is like 100 junior gold miners rolled into one,” said Tumazos, who retains about 120,000 Northern Dynasty shares after selling a small holding recently to recoup his initial outlay. “I think it’s the most significant mining project in the world.”
    • Aerospace, defense marts set for takeoff: Deloitte
      Jan. 13, 2017
      American Metal Market
      By: Grace LavigneIndeed, commercial aerospace volumes and product prices are “unstable,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.In addition, Tumazos said, Airbus’ A380 wide-body airliner is not profitable, and both Boeing and Airbus are trying to push down input prices to remedy their cost issues. In addition, Tumazos said, Airbus’ A380 wide-body airliner is not profitable, and both Boeing and Airbus are trying to push down input prices to remedy their cost issues.However, for the metals-intensive aerospace supply chain, production volumes from the defense sector hold less significance than the commercial side, according to Tumazos. Commercial aerospace trends are more meaningful for the metals industry overall, he said.
    • Trump stocks reveal manufacturing interests
      Dec. 13, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By: Grace LavigneRegardless, Trump’s 2015 stock portfolio values are “immaterial,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“I would characterize this as a broadly diversified portfolio that is worth a couple of holes on a golf course,” he told AMM. “Clearly the stock portfolio is not significant.”However, Trump should probably “step back” from his running any businesses he owns directly—which are mostly within the realm of commercial real estate—and maybe let his children take the reins, according to Tumazos.“Trump’s situation is complicated and we should accept the fact that we have a president with practical business and life experience,” he said.An initial public offering of his businesses does not seem like an ideal alternative for Trump because it would require him to pay 7 percent in underwriting fees and 15 percent in discounts to entice mutual funds to buy the stocks, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, Tumazos noted.
      Regardless, Trump’s 2015 stock portfolio values are “immaterial,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.“I would characterize this as a broadly diversified portfolio that is worth a couple of holes on a golf course,” he told AMM. “Clearly the stock portfolio is not significant.”However, Trump should probably “step back” from his running any businesses he owns directly—which are mostly within the realm of commercial real estate—and maybe let his children take the reins, according to Tumazos.“Trump’s situation is complicated and we should accept the fact that we have a president with practical business and life experience,” he said.An initial public offering of his businesses does not seem like an ideal alternative for Trump because it would require him to pay 7 percent in underwriting fees and 15 percent in discounts to entice mutual funds to buy the stocks, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, Tumazos noted.
    • A sluggish US steel market is piling extra pressure on its domestic scrap industry, while the strong dollar has been hitting scrap exports, writes Myra Pinkham
      Nov. 2016
      Metal Bulletin Magazine
      By: Myra PinkhamNot everyone, however, has been able to do so. John Tumazos, the principal and metal analyst for New Jersey-based Very Independent Research, estimates that about 500 US scrap yards have either gone out of business or have been sold off to either other scrap processors or steel mills with scrap processing assets over the past two years.
    • Some Kirkland Lake shareholders urde miner to engage with bidders
      Nov. 16, 2016
      The Globe and Mail
      By Reuters Nicole Mordant and John Tilak
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/some-kirkland-lake-shareholders-urge-miner-to-engage-with-bidders/article32877865/

      “Your shareholders deserve the opportunity to vote on the best offer for the company, and the board has a fiduciary duty to find it,” Kirkland Lake shareholder John Tumazos, chief executive of New Jersey-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research, wrote in a Nov. 14 letter to the miner’s board.

      Mr. Tumazos has voted his 215,950 Kirkland Lake shares against the Newmarket deal, he said in the letter seen by Reuters.

    • Some Kirkland Lake shareholders urge miner to engage with bidders
      Nov. 16, 2016
      Reuters
      By Nicole Mordant and John Tilak
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kirkland-lake-m-a-idUSKBN13B2MG“Your shareholders deserve the opportunity to vote on the best offer for the company, and the board has a fiduciary duty to find it,” Kirkland Lake shareholder John Tumazos, Chief Executive of New Jersey-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research, wrote in a Nov. 14 letter to the miner’s board.Tumazos has voted his 215,950 Kirkland Lake shares against the Newmarket deal, he said in the letter seen by Reuters.
    • Gold miner Kirkland Lake shares rise on bid speculation
      Nov. 14, 2016
      Reuters
      Reporting by Nicole Mordant in Vancouver; Editing by Will Dunham and Meredith Mazzilli
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kirkland-lake-m-a-idUSKBN1391SG“People are hoping that there is another bid or that somebody else votes against the merger,” said John Tumazos, owner and chief executive of John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
      “Now that the C$1.4 billion price is in the market, some other company can look at that and say, we’ll bid C$100 million more,” he said.
    • ATI idling Pa. titanium bar, wire operations
      Sept. 28, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      The Frackville idling is consistent with ATI’s cost-cutting strategy, according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
    • Kennametal expects flat sales next year, hopes to boost profits through cost-cutting
      Sept. 13, 2016
      TribeLive Business
      By Chris Fleisher
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/11135101-74/kennametal-prices-oil
      Kennametal’s outlook may be better than the company is forecasting, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey. Tumazos said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back. Oil and natural gas prices have nearly doubled since February and March.
    • Kennametal to eliminate 1,000 jobs amid downturn
      Aug. 1, 2016
      TribeLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10887053-74/million-kennametal-cents

      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back from lows earlier this year.

      Kennametal would be expected to benefit from the rebound, Tumazos said.

      “The worst is over,” he said. “The mining and metals and oil and gas will rebound back and forth, and the downturns may last for a couple years, but there will be a cyclical recovery.”

      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects to see a recovery in demand from the energy and mining industries because prices for oil, gas, iron ore and other metals have bounced back from lows earlier this year.

      Kennametal would be expected to benefit from the rebound, Tumazos said.

      “The worst is over,” he said. “The mining and metals and oil and gas will rebound back and forth, and the downturns may last for a couple years, but there will be a cyclical recovery.”

    • Aluminum producer Alcoa spinoff to shed $9 billion in debt
      Wednesday, June 29, 2016, 11:00 p.m.
      BY ALEX NIXON
      Link: http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10706591-74/alcoa-company-debt
      With low metal prices causing financial losses in Alcoa’s commodity aluminum business, it’s important that the spin-off company starts out with low debt levels, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.Alcoa Corp. is going to have difficultly turning a profit following the separation given the global overcapacity in the aluminum market, Tumazos said.“The aluminum business is difficult,” he said. “That’s why all the debt went to the other company.”
    • Investors don’t embrace Alcoa’s plan for splitting company, debt
      June 29, 2016 10:03 PM
      By  Len Boselovic / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      Link: http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2016/06/29/Alcoa-vows-to-complete-split-this-year/stories/201606290179
      “The upside of separating is not as much as we hoped,” said John Tumazos, an independent Holmdel, N.J. metals industry analyst.He blamed depressed metal prices, the strong dollar, and a disappointing performance from Firth Rixson, a jet engine components manufacturer Alcoa acquired two years ago. The United Kingdom-based unit will become part of the Arconic business following the split.
    • A Contrarian take on Kirkland
      June 21, 2016
      Bloomberg
      By Barry Critchley
      June 21 (Financial Post) — John Tumazos is a U.S.-based
      metals and forest products analyst who has a particular
      interest in the Canadian gold sector. For many years Tumazos
      plied his trade on the Street – where he was a perennial all-
      star. For the past few years he has run his own research
      company – known as Very Independent Research LLC – where he
      sells the service to more than 30 institutional investors. He
      is also an investor in some of the companies that he researches.
      Recently he weighed in on Kirkland Lake Gold Inc., an
      Ontario-based company that “owns the five former high grade
      mines,” and which expects to produce 270,000-290,000 ounces of
      gold this year. The company recently replaced its chief
      executive, George Ogilvie, with Tony Makuch, who is expected to
      arrive in a few weeks. In February 2015, Eric Sprott was named
      chairman.
      Tumazos has now downgraded Kirkland Lake, a stock that he
      owns, to neutral from overweight. He gave two reasons: price
      appreciation (over the past year the stock is up by 86.90 per
      cent) and “future direction uncertainties.” Part of his
      reasoning is that none of the company’s board – there are six
      directors in all with Makuch set to be named to the board
      shortly – had the “strength of will” to tell Sprott to stand
      down to keep former CEO George Ogilvie. In his report, Tumazos
      said Kirkland had “just reported record gold output and record
      quarterly profits after turning around the difficult Macassa
      mine.”
      According to Bloomberg, 10 analysts, eight of whom rate it
      either a buy or outperform, follow Kirkland. Four of the 10
      have published reports since last week’s annual meeting, none
      of whom have changed their view. Dundee’s Ron Stewart is the
      last to alter his view: He changed to neutral from a buy in mid-
      May but he upped his target to $12 from $10.50. Stewart changed
      his view based on valuation.
      Tumazos’ report was written after last week’s annual
      meeting, which showed that Sprott received the highest support
      from shareholders, with more than 98 per cent of the votes
      being for Sprott. Support for the other five directors was in
      the 83 to 84 per cent range. About 70 per cent of 115.6 million
      shares outstanding were voted at the meeting. “The safety of
      taking profits and the boardroom uncertainty at Kirkland
      motivate our downgrade to neutral weight,” he wrote.
      Tumazos said that “ultimately” he expects Kirkland Lake to
      be bought by another Canadian gold miner.
      He discounts an overseas buyer and doesn’t rule out the
      return of George Ogilvie, the former chief executive. “However,
      boardroom uncertainty may depress Kirkland’s valuation until it
      is bought out,” he wrote.
      A couple of days after that report, more than eight
      million shares of Kirkland Lake were traded on the TSX. That
      amount of stock represents more than five times the normal
      average trading volume. Given the number of trades and the
      number of brokerage firms involved, it’s not obvious that one
      investor was acquiring a meaningful position, as part of a
      possible takeover.
      Trading on Friday capped a busy week with volume on all
      five days being larger than normal. For the week the shares
      were off by $1 – or 8.32 per cent. On Monday, trading volume
      had returned to more normal levels. The shares closed at $11.
    • Financial Post says Tumazos cuts Kirkland Lake Gold to “neutral”
      June 21, 2016
      Kirkland Lake Gold Inc (C:KGI)
      Shares Issued 114,321,605
      Last Close 6/20/2016 $11.00
      Tuesday June 21 2016 – In the NewsThe Financial Post reports in its Tuesday, June 21, edition that John Tumazos is a metals and forest products analyst who has a particular interest in the Canadian gold sector. The Post’s Barry Critchley writes that for the past few years he has run his own research company — known as Very Independent Research LLC — where he sells the service to more than 30 institutional investors. He is also an investor in some of the companies that he researches. Recently he weighed in on Kirkland Lake Gold. Mr. Tumazos has cut Kirkland Lake to “neutral” from “overweight.” He gave two reasons: price appreciation (over the past year the stock is up by 86.9 per cent) and “future direction uncertainties.” Part of his reasoning is that none of the company’s board had the “strength of will” to tell chairman Eric Sprott to stand down to keep former chief executive officer George Ogilvie. Mr. Tumazos notes Kirkland had “reported record gold output and record quarterly profits after turning around the difficult Macassa mine.” Ten analysts, eight of whom rate it either a “buy” or “outperform,” follow Kirkland. Four of the 10 have published reports since last week’s annual meeting, none of have changed their view.© 2016 Canjex Publishing Ltd
    • U. S.  to investigate U. S. Steel’s complaints against Chinese producers
      May 26, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10533931-74/steel-chinese-producers
      U.S. Steel alleged China’s military hacked the company’s computers in 2011 and stole formulas for specialized high-strength steel used in the automotive industry. The military allegedly shared the proprietary information with Chinese steelmakers, allowing them to quickly develop the technology.The alleged hacking led to a 2014 federal indictment of Chinese military officials, who were charged by the U.S. Attorney in Pittsburgh with infiltrating computers at American companies, including U.S. Steel, Alcoa Inc. and Westinghouse Electric Co.John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said U.S. Steel was right to fight back, but that even if the company prevails, the domestic steel industry faces a fundamental headwind in weak demand.“The rhetoric of the steel industry focuses on imports, but the practical issue is that consumption is very poor,” he said.
    • Union set to discuss ArcelorMittal labor pact
      April 29, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Nat Rudarakanchana
      ArcelorMittal has had the “strongest bargaining position” compared with other U.S. producers lately, partly because it had the option of closing unionized mills and running healthy non-union mills, said John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC,
      “I expect that they (ArcelorMittal) bargained harder than any other company,” he said. “I’m surprised that ArcelorMittal did not play the strong hand they had even more emphatically.”
    • ATI   staff cuts seen reflecting low output
      April 19, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal“Now that those (unionized) workers have come back, ATI is recalibrating things for the amount of sales they (are expecting),” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
      The layoffs, coupled with no new arrangements with the United Steelworkers union to restart its plants in Midland and Bagdad, Pa.—and no potential joint ventures with West Chester, Ohio-based AK Steel Corp. or Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp. to get more volume through the billion-dollar hot-rolling and processing facility in Brackenridge, Pa. (amm.com, Feb. 10)—suggest the steelmaker is preparing for low production volumes, he said.Tumazos called the development “very sad” as a lot of skilled people will lose their jobs, some of whom might have worked in production roles at the mills while unionized workers were locked out.
    • U.S. Steel will lay off 25 percent of its salaried workers
      April 6, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10263460-74/steel-workers-salarie
      “U.S. Steel is just trying to survive,” said John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst from New Jersey. “There are a number of indicators in the steel market that aren’t very good.”
    • ATI shares outlook at @John Tumazos event, upbeat on #aerospace, #automotive following rightsizing, labor strife:
      April 1, 2016
      Twitter
      Grace Lavigne@GraceLavigne
    • ATI pins hopes on next-gen aero, auto marts
      April 1, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      ATI shares outlook at @JohnTumazos event, upbeat on #aerospace, #automotive following rightsizing, labor strife: http://www.amm.com/Article/3542452/Home/ATI-pins-hopes-on-next-gen-aero-auto-marts.html …
      “Our largest market is commercial aerospace,” Greenfield said during a presentation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York March 31. “Of that subset, jet engines is our largest market, and that’s where we see part of our growth going forward, particularly next-generation engine materials as well as spare parts.”
      “A significant number of cars around the world are moving from fuel-injected to turbocharged engines, and they’re just running hotter,” he told AMM on the sidelines of the conference.
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://tmrcorp.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=164
      TEXAS MINERAL RESOURCES TO WEBCAST PRESENTATION AT THE JOHN TUMAZOS VERY INDEPENDENT RESEARCH METALS AND NATURAL RESOURCES CONFERENCE ON MARCH 31
      SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, March 29, 2016 (MARKETWIRED) — Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TMRC), an exploration company specializing in the heavy rare earths and a variety of other high-value elements and minerals, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Chairman of the Board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Natural Resources Conference at 8:00 A.M. EDT in NYC. The Conference will be available via webcast.John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Details:Date: Thursday, March 31, 2016
      Presenting Time: 8:00 A.M. to 8:35 A.M. EDT
      Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      212 East 42nd Street, New York
      Room: Grand Central “A” RoomFor more information please visit: http://veryindependentresearch.net/conferences/Webcasting link: http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15
      Azimut will present today at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2016 Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New YorkLongueuil, Quebec – Azimut Exploration Inc. (“Azimut” or “the Company”) (TSXV: AZM) announces that the Company will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference to be held in New York city on Thursday March 31, 2016.Jean-Marc Lulin, President and CEO of Azimut, will be presenting at the conference at 5:40 P.M. (ET) Thursday, March 31, 2016. Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15. No password is required.Azimut is a mineral exploration company with the objective of discovering major ore deposits. The Company’s core business is target generation using advanced data processing methodologies, concurrently with partnership development. Azimut maintains a rigorous financial discipline to limit shareholder dilution. The Company has 37.6 million shares outstanding (43.4% held by insiders and institutional funds), no debt and $1.2 million in working capital.
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      ow.ly/1064Tw
      NorthAmericanNickel@NAmericanNickel
      We’re on site TODAY @JohnTumazos #mining conference in #NYC! Tune in at 9:45am EST to hear the #NAN team speak: ow.ly/1064Tw
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://www.terangagold.com/investors/events/default.aspx
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference
      March 31, 2016
      01:00 PM EST
      New York City
      Speaker(s):
      Richard Young , President & CEO
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://www.trimetalsmining.com/news/
      TriMetals Mining Inc. to Attend the John Tumazos Very Independent Research 2016 Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York on Thursday, March 31, 2016
      by tmadmin | Mar 29, 2016 | 2016 |
      March 29, 2016, Vancouver, British Columbia—TriMetals Mining Inc. (TSX: TMI and TMI.B, US OTCQX: TMIAF and TMIBF), (the “Company”), is pleased to announce that the Company will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference to be held in New York city on Thursday March 31, 2016.
      Ralph Fitch, President and CEO of the Company, will be presenting at the conference at 3.55 P.M. (ET) this Thursday, March 31, 2016. Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting http://wsw.com/webcast/vir15. No password is required.
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://www.westerncopperandgold.com/event/john-tumazos-very-independent-research-llc-metals-and-mining-conference-2/
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC: Metals and Mining Conference
      Mar 31, 2016
      Event Navigation
      Dr. Paul West-Sells, President and CEO, and Chris Donaldson, Manager, Corporate Development will be attending the annual John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference in New York City.Paul West-Sells will be presenting at 1pm Eastern Time on March 31, 2016.
      Details
      Date:
      Mar 31, 2016
      Website:
      http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/conferences/
      Venue
      Western Grand Central Hotel
      212 East 42nd Street
      New York, NY United StatesView the webcast here http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/conferences/
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      Henk J. Krasenberg’s photo
      https://twitter.com/goldview
      http://www.europeangoldcentre.com/audio-video
      Good morning to you John,To my sincere regret, I am still not able to come to New York and attend your conference this Thursday. My recovery process from my leg operation is still bothering me too much. Nevertheless, I wish you all the possible success with your event. You succeeded again in assembling a nice and high quality group of companies that have the substance to enable investors to benefit from what in my opinion is coming in the resource markets over the remainder of this year.This morning, I posted the announcement below on my website, inviting my audience to follow your event via the webcast. I will be certainly glued to my computer this Thursday not to miss anything of the presentations.I will also post an announcement in the Social Media
    • John Tumazos Metals and Natural Resources March 31, 2016 at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      http://www.otisgold.com/news/index.php?&content_id=163
      News Otis to Present at Tumazos Conference
      March 24, 2016Vancouver, B.C. – Otis Gold Corp. (“Otis” or “the Company”) will be presenting at The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference on March 31st, 2016 in New York City, NY. CEO and President Craig Lindsay will present on March 31st at 4:30 pm (EST) in the Mid Caps Track. Interested parties are invited to register and listen to the live webcast by visiting www.veryindependentresearch.com and clicking the “conferences” tab or Click Here. No security or password is required. Mr. Lindsay will be also available for one-on-one meetings on March 31st and April 1st and can be reached via email at info@otisgold.com or the contact information below to arrange.About the CompanyOtis is a resource company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal deposits in Idaho, USA. Otis is currently developing its flagship property, the Kilgore Gold Project, located in Clark County, Idaho.ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD“Craig T. Lindsay”
    • Invest Yukon New York Reception March 30, 2016
      http://www.yukonminingalliance.ca/YMA-NY-Luncheon2016.html
      On behalf of everyone at the Yukon Mining Alliance, we would like to extend an invitation to our spring NYC reception sponsored by Alexco Resource Corp, Western Copper and Gold Corp and Victoria Gold Corp. Join us this evening for appetizers and beverages at the Salon de Ning, Peninsula Hotel from 4pm-6pm.We wish everyone a positive and productive time at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Convention and a prosperous year.We look forward to seeing you this evening.On behalf of everyone at the Yukon Mining Alliance, we would like to extend an invitation to our spring NYC reception sponsored by Alexco Resource Corp, Western Copper and Gold Corp and Victoria Gold Corp. Join us this evening for appetizers and beverages at the Salon de Ning, Peninsula Hotel from 4pm-6pm.We wish everyone a positive and productive time at the upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Convention and a prosperous year.We look forward to seeing you this evening.
    • John Tumazos-Will Doom for Central Bankers Mean “Boom Time: for Gold Shares?
      Interview with Jay Taylor
      March 1, 2016
      By J. Taylor Media
      Taylor Hard Money Advisors, Inc.Audio:
      http://jaytaylormedia.com/media/JohnTumazos20160301.mp3
      You Tube:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZB9DflQRL0&feature=youtu.be
    • Allegheny Technologies, steelworkers have fences to mend after lockout
      Feb. 24, 2016
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      “Business is worse now than it was when the contract expired June 30. Business is worse than it was when the lockout started,” said John Tumazos, a metals industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. ”They’ve got to figure out how to get more business.
    • ATI and USW reach tentative agreement
      Feb. 24, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal

      “It’s notable the steelworkers aren’t crowing about the specific terms (of the agreement) because they have to sell it to the workers,” analyst John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. Among the variables to consider, he said, will be whether or not there are any changes to wages, signing bonuses, and health premiums and co-payments.“The settlement is like the first kickoff in a football game,” he said, noting that nobody wins in a strike or lockout,The whole situation is “very sad” for the rank and file, Tumazos added, because those 2,200 locked-out workers went for half a year without pay. “It’s possible some of the union members will have a rally and protest the union, he said. “The union charges them dues and what they got in return was losing half-a-year’s pay.”Tumazos noted that business conditions have deteriorated since the lockout. Close to 600 people were laid off and about a quarter of flat-rolled output was taken offline after ATI announced it would temporarily shutter its facilities at Midland and Bagdad, Pa.The company now has to figure out how to make these facilities low-cost and viable, or else how to be more competitive in new product lines, Tumazos said. The new challenge will be figuring out how to make new steel, he added.
    • Bad blood in ATI lockout expected to linger
      TribLive Business
      Feb. 23, 2016
      By Alex Nixon and Tom Yerace
      Link:
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/10023623-74/ati-union-labor
      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., suggested that the ill will may flow the other way because the union was unwilling to offer concessions when ATI was hurting financially.The company in January reported a 29 percent drop in fourth-quarter revenue and a $227 million loss driven by one-time expenses related to the declining value of its Flat Rolled Products unit.“Allegheny said they needed concessions, and I think they were telling the truth,” Tumazos said. “Their numbers haven’t been good.”
    • ATI seeks hot mill partners, analysts skeptical
      Feb. 11, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Carla BridglalU.S. Steel might be an option, but the company is in worse shape than when it first started considering teaming up with ATI two or three years ago, echoed John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Very Independent Resarch LLC in Holmdel, N.J. “Think of the causality involving ATI, and don’t think of it being driven by U.S. Steel,” he said.But ATI’s priority should be asset turnover, he said—the more products and revenue it can get from use of the new facility, the more likely it is to turn a profit. “There are a litany of things possible, but what is needed is for ATI to get many more profitable tons across Brackenridge,” Tumazos said
      Among possible options, Tumazos said ATI could consider striking a deal with the local union in Midland to restart production, creating a supply for Brackenridge and stimulating profitability. The company might also consider a joint venture for a foreign company to process its unfinished material at ATI’s facility, he said.
    • Steel workers ratify contract with U.S. Steel
      Feb. 2, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9898424-74/union-steel-health
      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., called the pact “a draw.” Based on a summary of the contract proposal sent to union members, Tumazos said, he estimated U.S. Steel will save between 2 percent and 4 percent a year on costs related to the union workforce.“Given the kind of money U.S. Steel lost in the fourth quarter … the union didn’t step up to save them,” he said..
    • ATI notches loss in 4Q to end “difficult year”
      Jan. 26, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9858807-74/company-ati-million
      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he is concerned about how the company will increase revenue as it idles capacity and cuts capital spending that is needed to develop high-value products.In particular, Tumazos said ATI needs to boost volumes at its Brackenridge Hot Rolling & Processing Facility, a $1.2 billion state-of-the-art plant in Harrison that was opened last year.“They have this problem: they need more volume for Brackenridge,” he said. “They need more volume and more revenue, especially in the flat-rolled segment.”
    • $ B loss booked by U. S. Steel
      Jan. 26, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9859057-74/steel-company-loss
      But the company’s cash flow in 2015 was down 77 percent from the previous year, which is a better indicator of its weakness than the large net loss, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. The loss included $1.2 billion in one-time, non-cash charges.After stashing nearly $1.5 billion in cash through 2014, which had been the highest level in nine years, U.S. Steel dipped into its savings to get through 2015, and “they will need it in 2016,” Tumazos said.Longhi didn’t “sugarcoat the crap,” Tumazos said, in delivering an outlook that includes continued pressure from depressed prices.
    • Stainless import spike spurs talk of trade cases
      Jan. 13, 2016
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      “The December imports are very high in relation to how poor the demand for stainless has been in the last couple of months,” according to John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. Most stainless steel products are very tailored to the application, so there is probably a “terrible excess” of commodity products.Still, the U.S. industry will likely opt to petition Congress for more help curbing imports than file trade cases, he added. “They’re only going to ask Congress to change the law to (better regulate imports).”U.S. imports of blooms, billets and slabs logged the biggest month-on-month increase, surging by nearly sevenfold, while cold-rolled sheet registered a 3,417-tonne (18.3-percent) gain in the same comparison.
    • Rubicon Minerals’ F2 deposit is uneconomic
      Jan. 11, 2016
      The Northern Miner
      By Trish Saywell
      http://www.northernminer.com/news/rubicon-minerals-f2-deposit-is-uneconomic/1003746846/
      A revised geological model and updated resource estimate that eviscerates much of the tonnes and grade at Rubicon Minerals Corp (TSX: RMX; NYSE-MKT: RBY) F2 gold deposit means that more exploration would be required at depth and along strike to develop an economic mining operation there, and the company is now evaluating strategic options that could include a sale.
    • The company started trial mining the F2 deposit on its Phoenix property in the Red Lake district of Ontario last year, but the geology was more complex than previously thought, and underground operations were halted in November to allow Rubicon and its independent consultants the time to analyze geological models.On Jan. 11 the company announced that contained gold ounces in the updated 2016 indicated resource category have plunged 91% from the 2013 resource estimate, while contained gold ounces in the inferred category have fallen 86% compared with the earlier estimate.The revised model and updated resource prepared by SRK Consulting was based upon information from recent development, trial stoping, chip sampling, underground structural mapping, and 94,600 metres of infill drilling within a concentrated shallow area of the deposit, all of which were not previously available, Rubicon said.“We believe that at current and projected gold prices, there just isn’t enough tonnes and grade above the 305-level to economically support stand-alone trial stoping,” Michael Winship, Rubicon’s interim president and chief executive officer, said on a brief conference call.The updated resource estimate now puts indicated resources at 492,000 tonnes grading 6.73 grams gold per tonne for 106,000 oz. of contained gold, down from the 2013 estimate of 4.12 million tonnes grading 8.52 grams gold for 1.13 million oz. contained gold. The revised numbers were based on a 4.0 gram gold per tonne cut-off.Inferred resources have fallen from the 7.45 million tonnes grading 9.26 grams gold for 2.22 million oz. of contained gold in 2013, to 1.52 million tonnes averaging 6.28 grams gold for 307,000 oz. gold.In a press release and accompanying conference call, Rubicon’s management team explained that information from the new drilling and recent trial stoping had significantly changed the understanding of the variable spatial distribution of the gold mineralization and that the new geological information “highlighted the complexity of controls on the distribution of the gold mineralization, its grade, and its continuity.”“In particular, the distribution of the higher-grade mineralization is controlled by the intersection between the east-west trending D2 structures and the north-trending high-titanium basalt unit. The new data shows that the high-grade gold mineralization is less continuous than indicated in the 2013 SRK resource estimate, which was based upon less widely-spaced drilling data that was drilled sub-parallel to the D2 structures.”“Although this new resource estimate is very disappointing, we still believe in the potential of the F2 deposit and the land package we hold in Red Lake,” interim CEO Winship told investors and analysts on the call, adding that any further significant exploration work in the future “would require a recapitalization of the company.” Winship joined Rubicon’s board of directors in 2011 and was appointed interim president and CEO in October 2015, replacing Michael Lalonde.Nicholas Nikolakakis, Rubicon’s vice president and chief financial officer, noted on the conference call that the company’s $26.9 million of cash, of which $22.4 million is unrestricted cash, means that “the company currently has a definitely workable cash balance to see us through the strategic review process.”Winship added that the company continues to have ongoing discussions with its lenders, which include the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.In May 2015, Rubicon entered into a financing agreement with CPPIB Credit Investments for a US$50 million secured loan facility. The loan facility contained a covenant to achieve commercial production — defined as sixty consecutive days of production at 875 tonnes per day of processed mineralized material from the Phoenix gold project — by Feb. 12, 2016.Allan Candelario, Rubicon’s vice president investor relations, failed to provide answers to questions from The Northern Miner before press time regarding a breach of the production deadline outlined in the CPPIB debt covenant, or why Rubicon decided to proceed with mine development at F2 on the basis of a preliminary economic assessment alone, rather than taking the more conventional steps of completing a prefeasibility or feasibility study.Financing for the Phoenix project and construction of F2 has also come from Royal Gold (TSX: RGL; NASDAQ: RGLD), which in February 2014 entered into a $75 million gold stream with Rubicon. Royal Gold’s shares fell 10.2%, or $5.42, to $47.70.In a brief note to clients entitled “Royal Gold Singed by the Phoenix,” analyst Andrew Kaip of BMO Nesbitt Burns commented that the Phoenix gold stream downgrade “highlights the risk in investing in projects without adequate technical information and, in our view, will probably feed into investors concerns regarding the overall risk profile of the Royal Gold portfolio of streaming assets, which is dominated by Mt. Milligan. Additionally, the updated mineral resource may trigger an impairment of the Phoenix stream.”John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research and a senior analyst, told The Northern Miner that the implications of the F2 case far exceed the immediate impact on Rubicon, its lenders and its shareholders, and risks tainting the wider industry.”The interpretation of any high-grade resource loses credibility and real value after a situation like Rubicon’s,” he says in an interview following Rubicon’s conference call. “It makes everybody in the business lose some credibility with investors, whether it’s management, QPs, engineering firms, investment analysts — everybody has egg on their face.”As far as the prospects of a lawsuit are concerned, Tumazos says the biggest deterrent would be that there may not be anything left for subordinate creditors after the company pays back its debt.”In order for a plaintiff to have an economic victory the company has to have money to distribute,” he says. “A 90% reduction in the resource estimate undermines the ability of creditors or equity holders to get paid.”Tumazos calculates that of the company’s $228 million worth of fixed assets on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30, the majority is probably sunk into underground shaft and tunnels and development, with the mill representing about one-third of its fixed assets, and estimates the mill would command ten cents on the dollar in the current gold price environment.Shares of Rubicon declined 64.3%, or 9¢, to finish at 5¢ per share on a trading volume of 17.12 million.”This is a real shock as to what you’ve done here with this company … this is hurting me tremendously,” a private investor commented during the question and answer session of Rubicon’s Jan. 11 conference call. “I paid a lot of money for this stock and now you’re talking about a recapitalization, what does that mean?”In response, Winship said the news had disappointed the company, as well, and it was assessing various strategic alternatives.”I can assure you we’re very disappointed, as management and the board, at what’s transpired,” Winship said. “We certainly have moved very quickly as we realized through the trial stoping period in the summer and into the fall. We made press releases in October and November as we understood the implications, and then of course we’ve just very recently, in the last few days, received the resource estimate. We’re looking at the various strategic alternatives as we said in the press release, you know, whether it’s a divestiture or to find a way for Rubicon to go ahead as an exploration company. So really we can’t provide you a lot more detail at this time on those various strategic alternatives.”
      Aluminum maker Alcoa tapers U.S. smelting, refining capacity
      Jan. 7, 2016
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9758721-74/alcoa-company-capacity#axzz3wZSttYOP
      Aluminum prices dropped 30 percent last year, and alumina prices fell 40 percent, the company said. At the same time, aluminum production around the world has remained high, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.Global output in November was the third-largest monthly total ever, Tumazos said, and Chinese production was up 16.5 percent through November, compared with the same period in 2014.Alcoa’s capacity reductions are a “natural reaction to low prices,” he said. “I think they’re just saying, ‘The market looks worse. The prices are bad. We’re going to produce less.’ ”Tumazos said the capacity reductions should not affect the viability of the primary metals company, which will retain the Alcoa name. Despite the weakness in its markets, it should be in good financial shape because the parts-manufacturing company, which has not been named, will retain Alcoa’s debt.“I don’t think this affects the spinoff,” he said.
    • ArcelorMittal pressured to follow USS labor deal
      Dec. 21, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By:Michael CowdenThe U.S. Steel agreement represents a template that ArcelorMittal USA could choose to follow, but that doesn’t mean it will, said John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. ArcelorMittal, unlike U.S. Steel, has a “unique hardball alternative,” given its global scope and its nonunion plants in North America, in particular Hamilton, Ontario-based ArcelorMittal Dofasco Inc. and AM/NS Calvert LLC in Alabama, he said.ArcelorMittal will probably look at its union plants in the United States and decide whether it can operate them profitably under terms similar to those agreed to by U.S. Steel. If the math doesn’t work, the steelmaker could opt to “permanently shut them,” Tumazos said.“They are not making money, and people are in business to make money, not to dream,” he said. Besides, there is no way to dream away what Tumazos estimated is 763.5 million tonnes of unused crude steel capacity worldwide. “Anyone who hesitates to cut capacity right now might have a decision-making defect,” he said
    • U.S. Steel contract deal possibly forges path to end of disputes at ATI, ArcelorMittal
      Dec. 21, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By: Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9672406-74/union-ati-steel#axzz3uxbjlVWR“Chances are U.S. Steel’s agreement is going to set the pattern” for concessions the union is willing to accept from ATI and ArcelorMittal, said John Tumazos, a steel industry analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.ATI’s labor costs per worker are higher than U.S. Steel’s, Tumazos said.Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal, which is headquartered in Luxembourg, has union-represented and non-union steel mills in the United States. The company, which owns a coke plant in Monessen, is taking “the hardest position” with the Steelworkers union to more closely align costs between its union and non-union mills, Tumazos said.“Arcelor has two large plants that are non-union, and they’re their most profitable plants,” he said.
    • Loss of trade case, competitive pressure precipitate ATI adlings
      Dec. 14, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By: Thorsten Schier
      Carla Bridglal, New York, contributed to this story.”ATI and AK (Steel Corp.) lost the GOES trade cases. The (preliminary) rulings were high dumping margins, and the (U.S. International Trade Commission) threw it out,” John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM via e-mail, referring to the ITC’s decision in October to strike down a trade case against GOES imports from China, the Czech Republic, Russia and South Korea (amm.com, Oct. 23).”The U.S. dollar is stronger, and there is huge overcapacity overseas,” he added.”Ditto (for) imports of stainless, and competition from (North American Stainless Inc.) in Kentucky and Outokumpu (Coil Americas) in Alabama, where employment costs 40 percent less. So business is terrible,” Tumazos said, noting that he didn’t see the ongoing labor dispute at the specialty steelmaker playing a role in the idlings.
    • Planned stainless hikes gain steam, stir doubt
      Dec. 11, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By: Carla Bridglal
      NEW YORK — U.S. stainless steel producers’ efforts to raise base prices in January appeared to gain momentum Dec. 10 as a third mill jumped on board the move, although some market sources are still skeptical the increase will succeed.Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI), which kicked off the move Dec. 7 and was followed two days later by AK Steel Corp., said they would lower their functional discounts by 4 percentage points.Outokumpu Coil Americas—part of Espoo, Finland-based Outokumpu Oyj—joined the effort Dec. 10, telling customers it would lift 200-, 300- and 430-series cold-rolled products by four discount points and all hot-rolled continuous mill plate products by 2 cents per pound, and polished extras will be reduced by 10 percentage points.Pittsburgh-based ATI’s base price increase applies to all grades of cold-rolled sheet and strip as well as tubular quality sheet and strip products. “The price increase is necessary to support continued growth and investment in our business,” the company said in a letter to customers.AK Steel’s increase applies to commodity sheet and strip, specialty sheet and strip, and pipe and tube sheet and strip products. Base prices for all other stainless steel products, including automotive sheet and strip, will be increased by $40 per ton ($2 per hundredweight), the West Chester, Ohio-based steelmaker said.Some industry sources suggested the increase is unlikely to stick unless market leader North American Stainless Inc. (NAS) backs the move.“I don’t know if (the price increase) will hold, especially in current market conditions,” one southern distributor source said.“The increase is fairly large, and though the producing mills certainly need a higher price, what they need may not always be collectable if competitive pressures exist that keep prices lower,” a market source in the Midwest said. “And those competitive pressures do exist. The sad fact of the global stainless market is that there is too much capacity, not just in China and Europe but in the U.S.”Outokumpu’s strategy has been to “fill the mill,” a move that has been criticized by its competitors for driving prices down but which has made the company more competitive because of more-efficient economies of scale at its Calvert, Ala., mill—a move that London-based financial advisory firm Jefferies International Ltd. highlighted in an analyst note earlier last week would be beneficial to the company but not so much to the industry (amm.com, Dec. 7).“Outokumpu has been a leader this year in a fill-the-mill strategy that has been a contributor to lower pricing. But taking all of this into account, if North American Stainless follows with their own price increase announcement then it’s likely that some increase will take effect,” the Midwest source said. “I hope the mills are able to collect it all, but with the capacity that exists it could be less than they want.”AMM’s latest assessment for cold-rolled stainless sheet ranges from $91.50 to $117 per cwt ($1,830 to $2,340 per ton), depending on the grade, down significantly from the start of the year, when prices were at $136 to $185 per cwt ($2,720 to $3,700 per ton).The increase could have been triggered by Tisco Trading USA Inc.’s notice last week that it intended to increase prices, market sources indicated.Canonsburg, Pa.-based Tisco did not immediately respond to AMM’s request for comment.It is unusual for an importer to lead a price increase, according to a source in the Northeast, but he said it “has no chance of sticking” unless Ghent, Ky.-based NAS makes a move. “I suspect that it’s a revenue-neutral move since surcharges have been dropping and they’re trying to create a bottom in the market,” he added.Surcharges have been tumbling since May, pushed down by plummeting commodity prices, notably nickel, iron ore and molybdenum (amm.com, Nov. 24).The move is curious, some sources said, especially since NAS has already begun informing customers that it will lower prices on bar products beginning next month (amm.com, Dec. 7).John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, disagreed. He suggested that the mills’ increase might be in anticipation of a restocking cycle, or a rebound in nickel prices as stocks fall, following a reduction in inventory across the industry. “I don’t think it’s weird (that some producers have raised prices); it might be dumb for NAS to cut prices while nickel supply is falling,” he said.Nickel stocks on the London Metal Exchange stood at 399,888 tonnes at the start of business Dec. 10, down 15 percent from this year’s peak of 470,376 tonnes in early June. However, U.S. stocks have been increasing, with 3,588 tonnes held in Baltimore warehouses at the close of business Dec. 8 vs. 1,548 tonnes June 3.
    • In Pennsylvania, a Steel Mill and Its Workers at a Crossroads
      Dec. 3, 2015
      The New York Times
      By: Steven Greenhouse
      http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/in-pennsylvania-a-steel-mill-and-its-workers-at-a-crossroads.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&_r=0
      But John Tumazos, a steel industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J., criticized the union’s approach. “Leo Gerard, the union’s president, is thinking of the century-old model, holding rallies in downtown Pittsburgh and mill towns, when this company is between a rock and a hard place,” Mr. Tumazos said. “The union isn’t making things better. They should be holding their protest rallies in Beijing.”
    • Reliance tube distributor buy deemed timely
      Dec. 2, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Emilia David
      The move is well-timed, according to one analyst. “Reliance seems to have bought an energy-related company at an opportune time. Oil prices have collapsed, so they’re not paying a peak price,” John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
      The Los Angeles-based company was fortunate because “people don’t like to sell business at the worst moment in the business,” he said, referring to the low price environment for most metals, particularly steel, and the continuing downtrend of the energy sector.
    • USS temporarily idling steelmaking, finishing operations at Granite City
      Nov. 24, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By: Michael Cowden
      CHICAGO — U.S. Steel Corp.’s idling of its Granite City Works in Illinois could be among the catalysts for a 2016 price rebound, according to one steel industry analyst
      Other steel experts disagreed, however, contending that the mill will continue to struggle with an import glut and competition from lower-cost domestic mini-mills.
      The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker had to idle Granite City (amm.com, Nov. 23), given a steep decline in oilfield activity and demand for the flat-rolled steel used to make welded energy tubulars, said John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
      But consumers shouldn’t assume that steel will remain abundant and prices cheap, Tumazos warned. With gasoline prices low and employment strong, automotive demand—a big driver of steel consumption—should remain firm even as steelmakers continue to cut capacity, he said. As steel capacity is slashed, scrapyards are going out of business and service centers are consolidating or filing for bankruptcy, Tumazos said, and as they do, inventory is liquidated, further accelerating a destocking process that has been underway for months.
      With additional integrated mill  shutdowns expected, the market could become tight should a harsh winter impede iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes or if a mill were to go offline unexpectedly, perhaps because of a mishap or labor dispute, Tumazos said. And if mini-mills look to ramp up in response, they might find scrap harder than expected to come by.                                                                While Granite City is idled for the time being, it might restart as soon as the second quarter of 2016, Tumazos said. That’s when the market is likely to rebound—even if the flat-rolled trade cases have little impact—because of capacity cuts and leaner inventories.                                    The world is awash in excess steel and base metals, Tumazos conceded, but that capacity is “geographically maldistributed.”                                                                “Having excess steel or aluminum capacity in China is not going to help someone manufacture in Ohio in a pinch in the middle of winter,” he said. “Are manufacturers in the Midwest going to airfreight it from China?”
    • Brazil’s mining tragedy: was it a preventable disaster?
      http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/nov/25/brazils-mining-tragedy-dam-preventable-disaster-samarco-vale-bhp-billiton
    • ATI to nix locked-out workers’ health benefits
      Nov. 10, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal“It’s all very sad and I don’t know how it’s going to play out,” according to John Tumazos, analyst and president of Very Independent Research LLC in Holmdel, N.J. “When ATI made their last, best, final offer their results got worse; it appears (their offer) was to be too generous based on market conditions.”“For ATI, trying to maintain wages and pensions and giving a signing bonus appears to be too generous relative to their ability to make a profit or in the long run stay in business,” Tumazos said.The union should really be negotiating with the Chinese government, Tumazos said, because of the shifting dynamic in the industry, and the U.S. government doesn’t seem to realize there’s a problem in the industry.“We wish the Chinese hadn’t built so many steel mills and the U.S. dollar wasn’t so strong, and we wish the non-union competitors in Alabama and Kentucky weren’t making a million and a half tons of stainless, but it is what it is,” he said.For the union—currently in negotiations with U.S. Steel Corp, Pittsburgh; ArcelorMittal SA, Luxembourg; and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., Cleveland—ATI might not be the biggest challenge it faces.“Arcelor(Mittal)’s two biggest plants are non-union, in Hamilton, Ontario, and Calvert, Ala. There is a scenario where Arcelor(Mittal) locks out their union plants and simply runs their two non-union plants full and profitably. So ATI terminating health-care benefits is not the worst thing happening maybe if these negotiations play out,” Tumazos said.
    • U. S. Steel praises tariffs on Chinese imports, doesn’t rule out plant closures
      Nov. 5, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Chris Fleisher
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9378344-74/steel-company-longhi#axzz3qchIItAR
      U.S. Steel must get its labor costs down, analysts said. The company is negotiating a new contract with the United Steelworkers. Longhi said he hopes to reach an agreement “that recognized the structural challenges in our industry” and would avoid a work stoppage. The union did not respond to requests for comment.“What’s most important is that they do not sign a contract where they cannot make a profit,” said John Tumazos, an independent steel industry analyst in Holmdel, N.J. “The union bargaining position that says all this is temporary and they can just go on like before is really not realistic. It’s a bargaining position, but it’s not realistic.
    • The outlook for U.S. Steel: bleak and bleaker
      Nov. 1, 2015
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/image/2015/10/31/20151101us-steel-shares481-png
      “Many things look very bleak,” said John Tumazos, an independent metals analyst from Holmdel, N.J. “Mario has done a lot of what he can do. I think they’ve done a good job not to be in worse shape.”What ails U.S. Steel and other domestic producers is largely out of their control — China’s huge surplus of steelmaking capacity.Mr. Tumazos estimates there may be 700 million or 800 million metric tons of excess steelmaking capacity globally, with China accounting for 500 million to 600 million metric tons of it. By comparison, U.S. mills shipped 98 million tons last year.“I don’t see any scenario where the tube business is good next year,” Mr. Tumazos said.Because China’s massive overcapacity augurs tough days ahead for U.S. steel producers, Mr. Tumazos believes the time is ripe for U.S. Steel to win concessions.“The issue is: how long does the union maintain this illusion that business is temporarily bad,” he said.
    • ATI lockout seen unlikely to end soon
      Oct. 14, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said there didn’t seem to be any other reasonable alternatives to the current options: bringing in replacement workers; ATI spinning off its flat-rolled division similar to Alcoa Inc.’s planned split of its upstream and downstream business; and ATI filing for bankruptcy protection, which could erase many retirement benefit obligations.Tumazos also noted that union officials weren’t acting in the best interest of workers by prolonging the negotiations. “People aren’t drawing paychecks and the union strike fund is very small,” he said. “The union does not want the individual plant work forces competing with one another on wages.”
    • Other segments nudge Alcoa to slim profit
      Oct. 8, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9232618-74/alcoa-aluminum-million#axzz3nt3XQR4D
      “God bless them to not have lost any money,” said John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. “To be just down a little bit when the aluminum price has been falling like a rock is pretty good.
    • ATI gearing up for third-quarter loss
      Oct. 8, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Mei Ling Toh
      “ATI’s employment cost of union workers is $77 per hour compared to U.S. Steel (Corp.)’s at $57 per hour. This is a very big gap,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM Oct. 7.Tumazos pointed out that ATI did not shut any of its larger plants, while Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel has shut down many of its steel mills over the last 40 years. “U.S. Steel is more disadvantaged in retiree benefits and they are still lower in cost. These issues are very substantial,” he said.“There will be a little bit about specific volume declines when they report earnings later this month. If the high-performance business has declined in earnings, we can assume the deterioration in nickel prices had a larger impact than titanium volume and forging mix,” he said.
    • Freeport-McMoRan Reviewing Options for Oil and Gas Business
      Oct. 6, 2015
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Miller and Tess Stynes
      http://www.wsj.com/articles/freeport-mcmoran-reviewing-options-for-oil-and-gas-business-1444136221?cb=logged0.5429269601590931
      Splitting the firm in two “makes each a more viable takeover target,” said John Tumazos,a New Jersey-based metals analyst and investor who said he owns 3,000 shares in Freeport……One aim of the new structure would be “self-funding of the oil and gas business from its cash flows and resources,” Freeport said.“The mining company won’t have to pay for drilling contracts anymore,” said Mr. Tumazos. “The oil and gas company won’t be allowed to rob the piggy bank.”
    • Analysts divided on path ATI should take
      Oct. 2, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      But the suggestion isn’t entirely new. John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, suggested in an August report that if the company were to split into two distinct units-an aerospace/specialty division and the stainless/electrical steel division-the combined share price would be almost four and half times its current value of around $14.
      The aerospace division, including titanium products and specialty alloys, would be valued at $51.32 per share, the report estimated, while the stainless/electrical division, including flat-rolled products, would be valued at $10.91 per share.
      While ATI’s current business model is built on pursuing “a strategy of product growth, innovation, higher value added and cost reduction in diverse long-term investments…(possible alternatives) include a second strategy of demerging flat-rolled products and high-performance alloys to permit a premium valuation to aerospace units; a third tactic of selling out in total’ or a fourth strategy of selling zirconium, forgings, the Rowley titanium sponge or exiting electrical steels to focus on the three larger stainless, titanium and nickel units,” it added.
      Market forces could prompt change as the company’s share rice underperforms, and many of ATI’s various technologies are highly marketable as individual assets, the report said. “The $605-million sale of the tungsten division in 2013 illustrates that some ATI assets and technologies are worth much to another strategic owner even though no earnings are discernible within ATI.”
    • Icahn can flex his muscles
      Sept. 30, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keen
      http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/icahn-can-flex-his-muscles/
      Clearly, one possible explanation for the short turnaround on what were long-life contracts is that he is keen to start work on a proxy fight. “The quick exercise gives him voting power earlier,” notes John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, in an email. “He may be committing capital to prepare a proxy battle. Proposals could include a demerger like Alcoa announced Monday, or South32 from BHP; reduced management compensation; and eliminating ‘office of the chairman.’” If Icahn takes control of the company, Freeport’s “office of the chairman” trio become a prime target. The tight-knit group comprises James R. Moffett, Chairman, Richard C. Adkerson, vice chairman and President and CEO, and James C. Flores, also vice chairman
    • Alcoa splitting into 2 companies, separating core aluminum, components
      Sept. 28, 2015
      TribLive News
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/9169777-74/company-products-aluminum#axzz3n8gMTGvP
      John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research, in Holmdel, N.J., said Alcoa’s aluminum commodity business has been hurt by China’s lower consumption and by cheaper Chinese supplies.Those pressures have increased more than expected this year, Tumazos said.“I think the catalyst (for the separation) is how tough this year has been in aluminum,” he said
    • Alcoa announces it’s splitting into two companies
      Sept. 28, 2015
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/09/28/Alcoa-splitting-into-2-companies/stories/201509280140
      John Tumazos, an independent metals analyst based in Holmdel, N.J., said aluminum prices are about 44 cents a pound lower than they were a year ago. He blames China, which he believes wants to control 60 or 70 percent of the world’s steel and aluminum production. The devaluation of that country’s currency last month was part of its strategy for reaching that objective, he said.Mr. Tumazos called Alcoa’s announcement “a negative outlook statement concerning aluminum.”“The Alcoa guys are basically saying they don’t want the ingot business to kill them, or drag them down,” he said.….Other unanswered questions include how its approximately 2,000 employees in the Pittsburgh region will be affected and the fate of Alcoa’s Technical Center in Upper Burrell. Mr. Tumazos said much of the work coming out of the research center has been focused on Alcoa’s downstream businesses, whose post-split chairman and CEO will be Mr. Kleinfeld.
    • Global supply could be steel’s Achilles heel
      January 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Michael Cowden
      “We’re hoping that domestics recapture
      (market) share (in 2015), but it will take
      lower prices to do that,” said John C. Tumazos,
      owner and senior analyst at Holmdel,
      N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
      The United States appears to be on pace
      to import 44.75 million tons of steel in
      2014, or 34.4 percent of apparent steel consumption,
      Tumazos said. That won’t break
      the record volume of 45.3 million tons in
      2006, but because apparent consumption
      in 2014 is lower than in 2006 it could set
      a new high-water mark when it comes to
      imports’ share of the U.S. market, he said.
      Domestic mill shipments should see gains
      in 2015 as imports fall to 35 million tons,
      Tumazos predicted, but the key to North
      American mills regaining market share
      lost to imports will be competitiveness,
      not trade action. “Dumping suits make attorneys
      rich, but they hurt steel companies
      because they encourage customers to import
      offshore assemblies of steel-intensive
      items,” he said.
    • Alcoa to Split as Aluminum Glut Pressures Prices
      Aluminum maker joins list of firms seeking to break up to perform better
      Sept. 28, 2015
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Miller and Chelsey Dulaney
      http://www.wsj.com/articles/alcoa-to-split-into-two-companies-1443437130
      Raw aluminum prices are down over 40% since 2011, to around $1,500 a ton. A split allows Alcoa to “prevent the market from assigning a negative value to the ingot business,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC. And with Alcoa due to report earnings on Oct. 8, “the timing is convenient,” he added
    • U. S. Steel to enable scrap melting by building electric arc furnace
      Sept. 16, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8936603-74/steel-furnace-fairfield#axzz3m0NChPQd
      But it’s not a panacea for U.S. Steel’s problems, analysts warned.“I don’t think this is the salvation of U.S. Steel,” said John Tumazos, analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J. “But it’s their best solution for a tough situation.
    • Ford to use more aluminum alloy in F – 150 pickup truck in deal with Alcoa
      Sept. 14, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/9091881-74/alcoa-aluminum-ford#axzz3liGok3uf
      The deal helps Ford improve the fuel economy of its vehicles by lowering their weight, and it benefits Alcoa by diversifying the company’s sales beyond raw material production to higher-value parts manufacturing. It could put pressure on steel producers, which have traditionally supplied most of the metal for cars and trucks, said John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.“It’s not a good thing if you’re AK Steel or ArcelorMittal or U.S. Steel,” Tumazos said. “If Alcoa can make the aluminum cheaply, and they lower their price at some point, aluminum will gain more penetration versus steel.”Alcoa first announced the aluminum alloy technology, known as Micromill technology, in December, saying that it was working with an unidentified automotive company on the alloy that was 30 percent lighter and twice as malleable as high-strength steel typically used in vehicles, meaning it could be more easily molded into a particular shape.
    • What new WTO appeals by foreign steel manufacturers could mean for U. S. Steel
      Sept. 14, 2015
      Pittsburgh Business Times
      By Justine Coyne
      http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/blog/innovation/2015/09/what-new-wto-appeals-by-foreign-steel.html
      But even if the duties are upheld against countries like South Korea and Turkey, it’s unlikely trade litigation alone can turn around U.S. Steel’s tubular division, according to John Tumazos, president and CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Crude oil and natural gas prices have dropped while at the same time about 4 million tons of new domestic tubular capacity has come online from competitors, he said.”Two to three years ago everybody was optimistic the shale was going to boom, boom, boom…but there was anticipation of a much larger market than what has come to pass,” Tumazos said.Sales in the company’s tubular segment dropped significantly in its most recent quarter with the company recording a net loss of $66 million for the second quarter of 2015. This compares to income of $47 million in the second quarter of 2014.”Shipments continue to be adversely impacted by reduced drilling activity caused by low crude oil prices and the near record levels of tubular imports, much of which we believe are unfairly traded,” the company said in a statement announcing its second quarter performance. “The decrease in results is also attributable to operating inefficiencies as a result of reduced production levels.”
      The learning curve has also improved to allow oil companies to get more production from fewer wells, he said.Because the market has shrunk, product differentiation and service is going to be key in securing those orders that remain, according to Tumazos.
      In July, U.S. Steel Tubular Products announced the introduction of USS-Liberty TC, a highly engineered connection offering for the energy industry. The connection was successfully installed at a Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) well in West Alexander, Pa., about 45 miles southwest of Pittsburgh near the West Virginia border.”It’s a tough environment, and in the end, U.S. Steel is going to have to lower their own costs,” Tumazos said.
    • Glencore’s big copper cut
      Sept. 9, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keen
      http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/glencores-big-copper-cut/
      “in the short term.” John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, says the move is: “Huge. It could turn the market, or create a shortage.”
      Tumazos estimates. These cuts come at a time when prices have been on the decline for years.
    • What does Carl Icahn want with Freeport-McMoran?
      Aug. 28, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keen
      http://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/what-does-carl-icahn-want-with-freeport-mcmoran/

      But one possibility is a break-up. John Tumazos, over at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, sees it that way.

      For it’s no secret there was grumbling by some shareholders over the marriage of mining and oil & gas assets back in 2012, with FCX’s takeover of Plains Exploration & Production Company and McMoRan Exploration Co. (Subsequently the company was renamed Freeport- McMoRan.) This has made Freeport one of the most indebted miners in the world – with $20 billion in long-term debt, or twice its recent market capitalization.

      With this discontent, Tumazos wonders if Icahn might angle for a Freeport break-up, putting the mining and oil and gas units into separate companies. Then the oil and gas assets – considered high cost – might become a compelling target for an oil and gas company, he thinks.

      Tumazos thinks it might also make sense from a taxes point of view. Talking with me Thursday night, Tumazos notes that Freeport stands to write-down assets by as much as $3 billion in September in large part owing to the decline in oil and gas prices, by his calculation. “There’s a lot of value in the losses in the oil and gas,” Tumazos says.

      And there’s unhappy shareholders to sway. Tumazos hit Freeport hard saying Icahn speaks for a silent majority of shareholders who want change in the company. Freeport’s office of the Chairman has been “slow moving and wrong-minded,” he said, adding, “investors will cheer decisions that create value and cause Freeport to react quicker.” (Disclosure: Tumazos owns Freeport shares.)

    • Nickel, stainless set for tough 2015
      Aug. 25, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      “Not very many nickel mines are very profitable at (these prices) and in most cases there are significant costs in addition to what the miners report as cash costs. Hydromet (processing) plants and various ferronickel plants would be candidates for shutdown,” John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., told AMM, adding that he would be very surprised if the price remained at its current level for long.The stainless market is more complicated, Tumazos said. “Last year, (global) stainless output rose 8 percent; this year it’s up by 0.1 percent in the first quarter. There is the risk that a large portion of stainless in China went to inventory. There are too many stainless mills in China; the world appears to be in overcapacity.”
    • Base metal tags take beating amid China slowdown fears
      Aug. 25, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      Meanwhile, John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said that China’s weakness does not necessarily translate into broader weakness on a global level, but noted that it might have different implications depending on the metal.
      “It is not obvious to me that the turmoil in China is necessarily bad for the (United States) and Europe…but there are commodities that China produces for itself, and then there commodities that it doesn’t have much of copper and nickel it might hurt,” he said.

 

    • U. S. Steel freezes traditional pensions for long-serving nonunion staff
      Aug. 24, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Tom Fontaine
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8969821-74/company-steel-workers#axzz3jl8tF5gK
      “It’s a prudent time to lower costs. No one ever got in trouble lowering costs and reducing debt,” said stock analyst John Tumazos of New Jersey-based Very Independent Research LLC.Tumazos pointed to recent turbulence in the stock market and falling sales in China’s auto market, adding, “It makes sense for U.S. Steel to control any costs that it can control.”
    • U. S. Steel to shutter Alabama furnace, lay off 1,100
      Aug. 17, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By David Conti and Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8929917-74/furnace-fairfield-operations#axzz3jAZ02fzY
      John Tumazos, an analyst and owner of Tumazos Very Independent Research, said oversupply of steel from imports and domestic producers, along with weak demand from customers in the oil and gas industry, drove the decision.“What they really are saying is that in the next 12 to 24 months, they don’t need to restart that blast furnace and they don’t need that mill,” he said.
    • ATI  out union workers
      Aug. 15, 2015
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/08/15/ATI-locks-out-union-workers/stories/201508150044
      Independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos said a provision of the Affordable Care Act that subjects companies to a tax if the premiums on their employee healthcare coverage exceed certain levels is one issue at the bargaining table. The tax had been dubbed the “Cadillac tax” because it was expected to apply only to high-paid employees. But in fact, it is expected to apply to many companies with union workers when it takes effect in 2018.Mr. Tumazos also said Allegheny Technologies must curb costs because it faces competition from cheap imports as well as domestic competitors with non-union work forces. He expects that operating plants with non-union personnel will make the company realize that it doesn’t need as many employees as it currently has.“I expect the company will learn that 10 to 30 percent of its workers are not necessary,” Mr. Tumazos said.
    • ATI locking out Flat Rolled Products workers
      Aug. 14, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8916540-74/union-ati-negotiations#ixzz3ioUVyfwi
      John Tumazos, owner of Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said ATI faces substantial competition from steel producers with non-union workforces and lower labor costs.“Allegheny is up against it,” Tumazos said. “It’s actually in the workers’ interest to take the deeper cuts. … It will help the company survive.
    • ATI offers “final proposal” to steelworkers union
      Aug. 7, 2015
      TribLive Neighborhoods
      By Tom Yerace and Alex Nixon
      Union officials have been critical of the companies’ attempts to link short-term financial challenges with the cost of employee benefits.John Tumazos, a stock analyst with Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., was surprised that ATI would take the step of delivering a final offer now, rather than waiting to see what happens with the talks at U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal.The steelworkers contract with ATI expired on June 30. The union agreed to continue working under terms of the previous labor pact.The contracts at U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal will expire on Sept. 1.“(ATI) may benefit from seeing U.S. Steel’s or Arcelor’s hand,” Tumazos said. “I just wish they took their time and let the other negotiations evolve.”The contracts cover about 17,000 workers at U.S. Steel, 13,000 at ArcelorMittal and about 2,200 at ATI.All three companies have reported worsening financial losses in the second quarter, driven by weak demand from oil and gas producers, low steel prices and high imports.
      http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourallekiskivalley/yourallekiskivalleymore/8878194-74/ati-proposal-union#axzz3iFfzdqn6
    • Trade cases not Rx for stainless’ woes: analysts
      August 5, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      “Rigorous trade law enforcement injures the steel companies and injures their customers,” John Tumazos, president of Holmdel, N.J.- based Very Independent Research LLC told AMM. “It (filing trade cases is often counterproductive, costs attorney fees and managers spend a lot of time on it when they could be focusing on running their companies. It’s just a large distraction.”
      Rather than filing a trade case, domestic producers should look to lower their cost of production to compete with foreign product, he advised.
      Steel is an intermediate capital good; if the cost of production and price is cheaper overseas, the customer can still import the final product made from stainless steel, Tumazos argued. “Trade cases work best for end products and not intermediate goods,” he said.
      A second analyst agreed with Tumazos that a trade case might not be the way to go.
      The company is likely losing money due to inefficiencies at Calvert, which was built to run al high capacity, Tumazos said.
    • Grace Lavigne retweeted John C. Tumazos
      August 4, 2015
      Tweeter
      By Grace Lavigne
      14 public miners that are majority of world copper mines had 1.8% more output in June half that one yr ago. Output is slowing
      John C. Tumazos @JohnTumazos
    • Marketers Use Metal to Talk Tough
      July 29, 2015
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Miller

      That raised the eyebrows of at least one metallurgist. “The reason those hulls are so strong is that they’re coated with titanium,” says John Tumazos, a longtime investor in metals companies.
      http://on.wsj.com/1Ir0HVY

    • U. S. Steel CEO expects rebound
      July 29, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon

      John Tumazos, of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel to achieve long-term savings through renegotiating benefits for union-represented employees. The company is in talks with the United Steelworkers union, which represents about 17,000 U.S. Steel employees, on a contract to replace a three-year agreement that expires Sept. 1.

      “From their projections, the company must be very optimistic in their negotiating for a new contract and the changes they’re going to make in benefits,” Tumazos said.

      Read more: http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8818425-74/steel-company-million#ixzz3hOjXcTtz 

       

    • Freeport “aggressively” looking to cut mining costs
      July 29, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      Miners will likely first look to cut costs by high grading production or laying off personnel before lowering output, according to John Tumazos, chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
      “It is imperative for Freeport to reduce debt and avoid increasing debt so that they are still able to run their company,” he said.
      “They may get the most bang for their buck if they cut or postpone (capital expenditures) as opposed to a change in production.”
    • Allegheny Technologies posts second-quarter loss
      July 21, 2015
      Post-Gazette’s
      By Len Boselovic / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      U.S. Steel and other steel producers could use the rolling mill to produce products they cannot make on their existing mills. Mr. Harshman said he hopes to find a partner by the end of the year.Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst John Tumazos said depressed conditions throughout the industry may complicate the search for a partner.“There aren’t too many steel companies that can rub nickels together,” Mr. Tumazos said.He was at a loss to explain the stock’s slide. Allegheny Technologies shares closed Wednesday at $21.67, down $3.40, in heavy trading.Mr. Tumazos said poor industry conditions, an unclear outlook, troubled labor relations and the weak U.S. manufacturing economy may have made investors react the way they did.“It’s kind of hard to figure out what spooks people,”
      http://www.post-gazette.com/business/2015/07/21/Allegheny-Technologies-posts-second-quarter-loss-pittsburgh.html
    • Allegheny Technologies’ CEO ties 2Q losses to benefits, working conditions
      July 21, 2015
      TribLive Business
      By Alex Nixon
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8775092-74/quarter-million-cents#axzz3gk8Iyjvy

      John Tumazos, an analyst with Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said investor sentiment turned negative because there was nothing hopeful in Harshman’s comments to gauge when conditions may improve at ATI.

      Steel prices are still falling, imports from China continue unabated, contract negotiations with the steelworkers union haven’t wrapped up and financial losses are increasing, Tumazos said.

      “They didn’t predict any improvement,” he said. “They didn’t say anything other than business is difficult.”

    • LME warehouse reforms not driving premiums.
      July 17, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Kirk Maltas
      Meanwhile, “the rise in the Midwest premium to several times historical levels is similar to an anaconda eating a baby elephant. It’s just passing through,” said John Tumazos, chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC.
      Tumazos attributed the 2015 collapse of the Midwest premium to Chinese aluminum oversupply rather than LME reforms.
    • ATI bracing for 2d-qtr. loss on soft stainless mart.
      July 16, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla Bridglal
      “In their earnings call in late April, their guidance had been that (the fourth quarter) will be more than (the third quarter) will be more that (the first quarter). So they deteriorated by at least $25 million (in) net income rather than improving. “John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM.
      “I don’t think that specific piece of machinery was the first issue; I think that 100,000 tons of imports and $5 (per pound) nickel hurt their stainless division much more, “Tumazos said.
      “It’s possible that ATI gets to a certain point in the negotiation where either the management caves in, the workers cave in or (no one caves in) and ATI just locks (workers) out,” Tumazos said.

 

 

    • ArcelorMittal has ‘no intention’ of cutting BF capacity
      July 16, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Michael Cowden
      The threat of a shutdown alone could be used to drive a harder bargain not only with the union but also with raw material suppliers, according to John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
      “We estimate a feigned shutdown could generate a $50- to $100-per-ton reduction in steelmaking costs based on potential concessions in the labor contract, the iron ore contract and coal procurement without counting electricity, refractories and other smaller suppliers,” Tumazos said.
      And those savings might be spread not only across Indiana Harbor but “over the entire system,” he said.

 

    • Ford’s planned move seen bad sign for small suppliers
      July 16, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Emilia David
      “There are no mills yet in Mexico that can make auto-grade steel, so it could very well be supplied by American steel companies,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. What would be more worrisome for steelmakers is if Ford changes the metal mix of its small cars, he added.
    • Copper is a victim of (market) forces, not fundamentals
      July 10, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      “Fundamental demand has been down, and some expect that it’s going to be down a lot more because of China and Europe” according to John Tumazos, owner and chief executive officer of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.
    • Restructuring costs weigh down Alcoa 2Q profit
      July 8, 2015
      Trib Live Business
      By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/8702504-74/quarter-alcoa-percent#axzz3fOkombLP

      John Tumazos, of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said recent aluminum price declines hurt Alcoa’s results more than expected.

      “Given how much the aluminum price fell, they did well not to lose money,” he said.

      And the falling prices are likely to weigh heavily on earnings the rest of this year, he said. “There’s a good chance they won’t make a profit in the third and fourth quarter.”

    • Steel’s sights on summer contract talks
      June 25, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Carla BridglalThe negotiations with autoworkers will be very different than those with steelworkers, according to John Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC. “The auto industry has been profitable, with sales at a near record and continuing to improve. Expectations from workers are probably much higher in the auto sector,” he (Tumazos) said.U.S. Steel, on the other hand, has been temporarily idling some of its plants and running at low operating rates, Tumazos said. “U.S. Steel has a tough battle in the market. The company is probably wishing for substantial labor cost reductions. It’s not making lots of money and might already be performing as badly as if it were on strike.””ATI has its own unique circumstances,” Tumazos said, noting that the company has to share the market with non-unionized competitors. “ATI has a particularly aggressive union that takes full credit for (the company’s) new $1.2-billion rolling mill. It is possibly that ATI is fully prepared to operate with salaried or replacement workers”
    • ATI has forgotten teamwork
      June 17, 2015
      Trib Live Opinion/The Review
      Letter to the Editorhttp://triblive.com/opinion/letters/8575745-74/ati-company-teamwork#axzz3dVndaJ92
      The article also quoted stock analyst John Tumazos saying ATI workers “should send a ‘thank you’ note every day to the company.” He’s probably shorting ATI stock to pad his portfolio.
    • ATI braces for failure of labor talks, USW says
      June 16, 2015
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2015/06/16/ATI-braces-for-failure-of-labor-talks-USW-says/stories/201506160057
      Metals industry analyst John Tumazos said the company needs concessions if it is to compete with imports as well as at least three U.S. mills that make similar products with modern equipment. None of those U.S. mills has retiree benefit obligations, past environmental issues or unions, Mr. Tumazos said.He said what little money Allegheny has made in recent years was generated by its titanium and alloyed business. The Brackenridge workers and others covered by the contract work for the company’s flat-rolled unit, which has not done well because of slumping demand and competition, he said.“Management is going to take a very hard line because they’re not making money,” Mr. Tumazos said.
    • Handbills posted on website not optimistic about ATI talks
      June 14, 2015
      Trib Live Neighborhoods
      By Tom Yeracehttp://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourallekiskivalley/yourallekiskivalleymore/8560489-74/ati-company-strike#axzz3d2qgZycY

      Stock analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research in New Jersey follows ATI. He downplayed any negative effect a work stoppage might have on ATI.

      “I think the company is strong enough to survive a strike, but they want to make steel and not have a strike,” he said.

      Tumazos said over the past few years ATI has made “peanuts.” The money it did make was due to its high-end specialty alloys, which use metals such as titanium and zirconium, while the flat-rolled products made little or lost money.

      He said if there is a prolonged strike, it could lead to “activist shareholders” buying up controlling interests in the company and then breaking it apart.

      “The flat-rolled division might be worth more ‘cold,’ idled — without the workers,” Tumazos said. “I think the workers should write a ‘thank-you’ every day to the company.”

    • Defective shear crimps ATI’s new rolling mill
      May 29, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Thorsten Schier”A steel mill is a linearly sequential production process, just like an auto assembly line or many types of factories. If a 39-cent washer causes you to lose four months, it’s a big deal” said John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.He (Tumazos) added that as a shareholder of the company he was “very frustrated” with the failure so soon after start-up of a piece of equipment typically expected to run for decades. “We’re not supposed to be hearing about this in May 2015,” although the defect was “the suppliers fault, not Allegheny’s”
    • Copper M&A values seen continuing to fall
      Date April 20, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne
      “We expect declining transaction values as long as capital markets are hostile to commodities, copper companies run short of cash and non-copper commodities further drain treasuries with losses from iron ore, coal, oil, nickel or other products,” John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said in a research report.”The deeper prices fall below $3 per pound, the more shutdown mines or excess borrowings or capital expenditure budgets will force asset mine sales,” Tumazos said. “Small copper mines shut down have no resale value at the moment.””The slower rates of economic growth in China, declines in construction in China, leveling off of Chinese steel output, declines in other commodities and evidences of recession in Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, parts of Europe, parts of the Mideast or other pockets have given rise to renewed bear copper market expectations,” Tumazos said.”The peak period to sell copper mines has passed,” Tumazos said.
    • Copper seen rising, but timing, degree unclear
      Date: March 31, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavignehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3441455/Copper-seen-rising-but-timing-degree-unclear.html
    • Copper price governs Thompson Creek upgrade
      Date: March 31, 2015
      By Grace Lavigne
      http://www.amm.com/Article/3441421/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creek-upgrade-pivots-on-copper-prices.html?ArticleId=3441421
    • Date: April 1, 2015

      I can assure you that despite my quite critical look at the markets and in doing my research to find the companies that stand out from the crowd, I get a lot of confirmation in my belief that the markets deserve to be approached with a willing and entrepreneurial attitude. Just at the beginning of this week, I found enough ground to confirm my confidence when I had a long session behind my computer, following the webcast of the 
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference in New York, where a large number of mining and exploration companies were presenting their projects, accomplishments and progress to a highly qualified audience. Listening to the company executives unfolding the scenarios of their projects acknowledged my vision: there is a whole next generation of gold and silver producers in the making. Not in promises and wishful thinking, but based on facts and figures resulting from extensive exploration programs with on top of that, highly qualified expertise to channel their projects through the challenging and capital-intensive phases of development towards production decisions and actual production over the next few years
    • Allstar Analysts 
      http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/topguns97.htm
    • Ashton Bay to Present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference
      Press Release Date: March 27, 2015

      Vancouver, British Columbia – March 27, 2015 – Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (TSX-V: BAY) (“Aston Bay” or the “Company”), a junior exploration company advancing development of the Storm Copper Project (the “Project”), announced today that it will be presenting at the Metals and Natural Resources Conference being hosted by John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC at the Westin Grand Central Hotel in New York, on Monday, March 30, 2015. Benjamin Cox, Chief Executive Officer of Aston Bay, will present at 8:00 AM EST. To access the live webcast or a replay of Mr. Cox’s presentation, please use the link below:

      http://www.wsw.com/admin/~log/?conference=vir14&page=&key=ctqhcnvfj

      The related presentation will be available as part of the webcast or can be found on the Company’s website at:

      http://astonbayholdings.com/116-2/investors/presentations/

    • Pershing Gold to Present at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Natural Resource Conference
      Press Release Date:
      March 27, 2015
      Link: http://ir.stockpr.com/pershinggold/press-releases/detail/774/pershing-gold-to-present-at-john-tumazos-very-independent-research-llc-metals-and-natural-resource-conference
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference on March 30th
      Release Date: March 25, 2015
      Link to Full Release: http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=131
    • Teranga Gold to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Natural Resources Conference
      Press Release Date: March 24, 2015
      Link: http://www.terangagold.com/English/investors/news/newsreleasedetails/2015/Teranga-Gold-to-Present-at-The-John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-Metals–Natural-Resources-Conference-on-March-30-2015/default.aspx
    • Western Copper and Gold to Attend The John Tumazos Conference and a Series of Florida Events
      Release Date: March 23, 2015
      Western Copper and Gold will be attending The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Natural Resources Conference on March 30th, 2015.
      Dr. Paul West-Sells will present at 9:10 am (ET) in the Natural Resources Track at the conference, which will take place in New York.  Interested parties are invited to register and listen to the live webcast by visiting www.veryindependentresearch.net and clicking the “conferences” tab or Click Here. No security or password is required.
    • Acquisition makes Alcoa a bigger player in aerospace industry
      March 9, 2015
      Pittsburgh Post Gazette
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2015/03/09/Alcoa-to-buy-RTI-for-1-26-billion-to-expand-aerospace-unit/stories/201503090119
      “Alcoa will leverage these technologies more broadly and will have them immediately without having to work around patent and know-how issues,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst.He (Tumazos) said linking up with Alcoa makes sense for RTI, whose major competitors, including Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Technologies, are much larger.Mr. Tumazos said Allegheny Technologies would have made a more attractive acquisition for Alcoa because it has a larger titanium business, broader capabilities in more businesses, and extra capacity for processing metals at its new plant in Brackenridge.If RTI terminates the merger agreement because it finds a more attractive offer, it would have to pay Alcoa a $50 million breakup fee, according to an RTI securities filing. Mr. Tumazos said a higher offer is unlikely because “the Alcoa offer is pretty generous.”
    • Alcoa may close or sell some aluminum plants to cut costs
      March 6, 2015
      Trib Live Business
      By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7914995-74/aluminum-alcoa-capacity#axzz3TY8aLh69“I was surprised at the magnitude” of the potential capacity cuts, said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.
    • Barrick rides the DeLorean
      February 23, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/barrick-rides-the-delorean/One analyst, John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, while highly supportive of the debt pay-down plan, noted Barrick, like other miners, was selling known quantities yet keeping projects proven to be “a treasure trove of cost overruns”. He argued the miner should focus on bringing capital expenditures down to half of depreciation (they’re about equal now) through more cuts, particularly by taking the scalpel to typically cozy relationships with contractors. As Tumazos put it, “I think they should sell their problems and not the mines that work”.
    • Tahoe to buy Rio Alto in C$1.4 bn deal
      February 10, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/tahoe-buy-rio-alto-c1-4bn-deal/
      In a short question and answer session, the main questions from analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Rsearch centered on the rationale for the 65-35 structure of the Tahoe-Rio Alto tie up.“How did you grow comfortable (with that)?” Tumazos asked McArthur, noting Rio Alto’s mine life on the operating La Arena oxide gold mine is substantially less than Tahoe’s Escobal mine life.
    • Sale of Vale’s nickel business unlikely
      February 6, 2015
      Global Monitor News
      By Stephen KurczyVale is not going to sell when the price of nickel is at the low end of its range. Vale is going to sell when the price is surging like it was early last year.”But with the price of nickel currently at about $15,000 per metric ton – 25 percent below
      Vale’s minimum target range – it’s unlikely that any serious offers will come for Vale’s entire base
      metals division, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research. He sees it more
      likely that Vale might sell an undeveloped mine, such as the Vermelho nickel project in northeastern
      Brazil, which has been put on hold.”It is possible that Mick Davis negotiates to buy a particular mine or undeveloped project that Vale does
      not want to develop, like the Vermelho project,” says Mr. Tumazos. As to the IPO of the base metals
      division, he adds, “Vale is not going to sell when the price of nickel is at the low end of its range. Vale is
      going to sell when the price is surging, like it was early last year.”
    • U.S. Steel maps out greater efficiency for 2015
      January 28, 2015
      Trib Live Business
      By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7649794-74/steel-company-prices#axzz3Py7ATlBM

      U.S. Steel maintained strong prices for flat-rolled and tubular products in the October-December quarter, which boosted profits, the company said Tuesday. But that isn’t expected to last as contracts to supply steel at higher prices expire, said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.

      “The fourth-quarter prices were all better than expected because prices were negotiated earlier in the year,” Tumazos said. “The March (first-quarter) or June (second-quarter) results will probably be significantly less.”

      Despite these challenges, U.S. Steel is in a much better place financially than it was a year ago, Tumazos said. “Had a number of the tough decisions not been made that have been made, U.S. Steel would be doing half a billion to a billion dollars worse, which probably would not be sustainable.”

    • Low steel tags hurting integrated mills
      January 21, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3419661/Search/Results/Low-steel-prices-pushing-US-integrated-mills-under-water.html?ArticleId=3419661Whatever the means of production, North American steelmakers potentially looking to boost prices do so at their own risk, according to John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, who blamed a surge in steel imports in recent months on “excessively high” domestic steel prices in 2014.”The domestic mills have to adjust to world market conditions,” Tumazos said. “No economic textbook says that the appropriate policy for a strong currency is to raise prices as overseas prices fall to force your prices further out of line with world levels.”The iron ore and metallurgical coal to make a tonne of pig iron cost less than $200 per tonne, Tumazos estimated, which suggests that world market prices for hot band should be between $500 and $550 per tonne, or $455 to $500 per short ton ($22.75 to $25 per cwt) assuming conversion costs of $300 per ton ($15 per cwt).”Domestic scrap steel and finished steel quotes are too high,” Tumazos said.
    • Highest cost mine among top 50 very large sites worldwide reported $0.5 bil profits
      January 15, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavignehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3417889/Home/Copper-price-slide-may-idle-mines-halt-projects.html
    • Inglorious writedowns: Gold sector’s bad bets wiping out lifetime earnings-and investor confidence
      January 14, 2015
      Financial Post
      By Peter Kovenhttp://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/14/inglorious-writedowns-gold-sectors-bad-bets-wiping-out-lifetime-earnings-and-investor-confidence/“It matters when you write off more than you ever earned,” said John Tumazos, an independent analyst. “The message is these particular companies were reckless and irresponsible with their shareholders’ capital.”“In the U.S., it sticks out like a sore thumb [to investors] when a historic company has no retained earnings,” Mr. Tumazos said. He added that generalist investors in Canada may be more tolerant of these gold miners because mining is such a huge portion of the Canadian stock market.
    • “Copper Prices Slide; Surplus Estimates Called Overblown”
      January 14, 2015
      American Metal Market
      By Grace Lavigne

      But some analysts say these numbers have been inflated.  “There is a false perception of rising world copper mine output,” according John C. Tumazos owner and senior analyst at Very Independent Research, LLC in Holmdel, NJ.  Last year started off “like gangbusters for mine production, and then collapsed in the second half of the year….there’s no real surplus.”


    • Yesterday’s top story: Top 100 mining companies — but not so ugly below (Part 2)
      January 11, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keenwww.mineweb.com/top-100-mining-companies-not-ugly-part-2/
      In other ways, 2014 was also notable for declining output of non-ferrous metals, which could prove bullish. Analyst John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, thinks so and points out that it’s widely under appreciated non-ferrous mine production was way down in 2014.He rattles off a list: zinc production down 7%, lead down 18%, bauxite down 21%, nickel down 27%, platinum down about 25%, and copper about even. These production declines were one of the most significant stories of 2014, Tumazos reckons, not the the crashing iron ore price. Combine this with other supply issues, and Tumazos concludes there are “many bullish developments in the non-ferrous metals.”
    • Top 1oo mining companies: Ugly at the top (Part 1)
      January 9, 2015
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/top-100-mining-companies-ugly-top-pt-1/Some analysts and mining management lambaste the diversifieds for angling to maintain market share through mine expansion. Ivan Glasenberg – chief executive of Glencore – has cut into BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto for their strategy to grow amid an iron ore glut as being ill conceived and bad for business. Likewise, analyst John Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, derides the business strategy.“The iron ore companies are uniquely delusional,” Tumazos says. He points to clear signs that Chinese steel demand, which dominates iron ore use, is set to be lacklustre relative to supply growth for years to come. But “the guys that own 400 tonne trucks just don’t want to admit it”.
    • Alcoa, Israeli company collaborate on aluminum-air battery
      January 10, 2015
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7431480-74/battery-aluminum-alcoa#axzz3OYg54Qo0

      John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said selling aluminum for the battery “could be a big number for them” if Phinergy’s technology proves commercially successful.

      If the aluminum-air battery becomes the success Kilmer described, two smelters’ worth of aluminum, it could mean production of 400,000 metric tons a year, Tumazos said.

      “It would be one of their five largest customers if it grew to two smelters of 200,000 tons each. That would be over 10 percent of their smelter output and 8 percent of their shipments, but Phinergy has to be commercially successful. That volume would rank in the same league as InBev, Coke, Pepsi, Ford, GM and Boeing and other large customers.”

    • U.S. Steel to idle two oil, gas pipe plants, laying off 756
      January 6, 2015
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7508038-74/steel-oil-plant#axzz3O8zJMemC

      But John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., Tumazos said the market for oil and gas pipe in 2015 may be only half of what it was in 2013 and 2014 if oil stays near $50.

      Besides the effect of lower oil prices on orders, more pipe manufacturing capacity is coming online. That includes the Vallourec Star tubing plant in Youngstown, Ohio; Borusan Mannesmann, a Turkish steel pipe manufacturer, building its first U.S. plant in Baytown, Texas; and Tenaris SA of Luxembourg, building its first U.S. seamless plant in Bay City, Texas, which will have capacity of 600,000 tons a year.

      U.S. Steel is still operating tubular plants in Texas and Fairfield, Ala.

      “These brand new mills are going to take market share from older producers,” Tumazos said. “And then there’s the question of imported steel.”

    • Alcoa buying jet engine components maker Tital to help expand aerospace unit
      December 15, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7384080-74/alcoa-aluminum-tital#axzz3LzADRl9aJohn Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said, “It’s nice that Alcoa bought Tital, but it’s probably not going to be the thing that moves the needle.”

      Automotive and aerospace markets may have more attractive profit margins now, Tumazos said, but aircraft makers and car companies have histories of squeezing suppliers when times get tough.

      “Aerospace does not guarantee profits,” he said.

      Tumazos predicts demand for aluminum will start to grow next year, which will boost aluminum prices and Alcoa’s profits.

      “We think the world aluminum business is getting better, so we don’t think they necessarily need to get away from it,” he said.

    • Vale eyes possible return of ‘Inco’ to Canadian market as it mulls IPO for part of base metals unit
      December 2, 2014
      Financial Post
      By Peter Kovenhttp://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/02/brazils-vale-mulls-toronto-and-london-listings-for-some-base-metals-units-sources-say/
      “I think it’s eminently logical for Vale to spin back Inco, and for Rio Tinto to spin back Alcan,” independent analyst John Tumazos said in an interview.“The iron ore business has grown so much over the past decade, both in volume and price, that it dominates those companies.”
    • Plunging iron ore price exposes ailing Chinese growth
      November 19, 2014
      Mineweb
      By Kip Keenhttp://www.mineweb.com/plunging-iron-ore-price-exposes-ailing-chinese-growth/
      John Tumazos, of Very Independent Research, expects Chinese steel output (which requires iron ore as input) to decline 10% next year, equally due to falling demand, exports and inventory cuts, and predicts a sea-change in longer-term Chinese growth.“The Chinese economy is changing and the iron ore miners don’t want to stop buying 400-tonne trucks,” Tumazos said in an interview on Wednesday.Tumazos said China, where the economy is rebalancing after furious growth over the past decade, faces numerous issues that will challenge growth in the coming years and decades. Among other issues, he highlights China’s demographic challenge – a declining workforce; anti-dumping opposition it may face as its steel exports rise; and a GDP that will, in his view, take a hefty knock once the country starts importing vast amounts of expensive Russian natural gas in a few years, as invisioned by a recent Russia-China agreement.The deal will be a “huge detriment to GDP,” he says.
    • U.S. Steel reports 3Q loss of $207 M on special charges
      October 28, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/7045925-74/steel-million-share#axzz3HSv8slhA“They sure had a nice quarter in flat-rolled,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J. “Historically, there have been good economic cycles where the profit in flat-rolled was not $94 a ton. So this is a very good performance.” The unit makes sheet for autos and appliances.
    • Sale Seen a Good Move, Raises Some Questions; Aleris Targeting Core Expansion:
      October 21, 2014
      American Metal Market

      Aleris Corp.’s sale of its global recycling and specification alloys business….appears to be a consequence of Aleris deciding to reduce debt, according to John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research, LLC.The division being sold would have great value to Alcoa, Novelis, Constellium or Kaiser Aluminum “as their livelihood involves sourcing quality metal units at the most competitive cost,” John C. Tumazos, owner and senior analyst at Holmdel, NJ-based Very Independent Research, LLC, said.Tumazos called on Bouchard to describe Signature’s strategy to increase the value of the aluminum business it has agreed to acquire. “I am sure he has a combination of (1) expanding and growing the business perhaps buying some other nonferrous recyclers, (2) may want to ride a future aluminum upcycle as aluminum demand grows, but few primary smelters are proposed outside China and (3) may choose either (an) IPO or sell out to Alcoa, Novelis, Constellium, etc. in the future when both aluminum markets and the stock market (are) simultaneously favorable,” he said.
    • Cliffs Plans to Write Down $6 Billion in Assets
      October 17, 2014
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/cliffs-plans-to-write-down-6-billion-in-assets-1413542547In 2011, Cliffs “over-paid and over-invested based on high iron ore price,” said John Tumazos, an investor and analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “The write-off is not a business decision, it’s simply acknowledging what is the status quo.”
    • U.S. Steel shares jump on turnaround strategy
      September 18, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6812511-74/steel-company-million#axzz3DfVuwgk4“They don’t seem to want to tolerate anything that is losing money. It turns out that Canada was losing quite a bit, $25 million a month,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.“They are saying small is beautiful,” Tumazos said. “They are scrutinizing everything,” and other plants they might sell include U.S. Steel Europe, now consisting only of a plant in Kosice, Slovakia, which must purchase its raw materials at more expensive prices. “Having gotten rid of Serbia and Canada, the headquarters has to become smaller because there isn’t as much to manage. And they have been doing that,” said Tumazos. “But they might pause for a while. I don’t think they will be killing a major plant every quarter or two.”
    • Alcoa shifts retirees to private health insurance exchanges
      September 8, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By Alex Nixonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6758936-74/health-alcoa-private#axzz3CoaihRiEAlcoa, which is based in New York but has an operations center in Pittsburgh, may have been able to provide rich employee benefits in the past, but it is facing serious competitive pressure today, said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.There is an oversupply of aluminum caused by increasing Chinese production, which has depressed the metal’s price, he said. Alcoa has responded by closing smelters across the nation and trimming expenses.“They’re not the pre-eminent company they once were,” he said. “They haven’t taken the controls off of cost. They’re still attacking any and every cost.”
    • U.S. Steel’s 2Q loss beats analysts’ estimates
      July 29, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6524660-74/million-loss-cents#axzz38tnZnyxQ“The loss of 12 cents was a great achievement in view of the mishap at the Great Lakes (plant in Ecorse, Mich.) and the iron ore delivery delays due to Lake Superior’s prolonged ice blocks,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.
    • Steel said still on top despite Toyota shift
      July 17, 2014
      American Metal Market, Volume 122, Number 29-4
      By Thorsten Schier”In a way it’s a bigger victory for aluminum to access Toyota because Toyota is a leader in fuel economy by hybrid and Toyota separately is a leader in gains in fuel economy by engineering and conventional technologies,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM, adding that there are “enormous opportunities (for lightweighting) in mainstream midsize cars, not just the bigger trucks, Corvettes and Cadillacs.””It’s early days in the research and each model year the optimization will change as the price of aluminum, steel and other material changes,” Tumazos said.
    • Commerce imposes higher penalties on S. Korean drilling pipe; impact questioned
      July 11, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6430406-74/steel-percent-industry#axzz37H0zAoIhJohn Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the decision likely won’t change South Korea’s behavior.“I don’t think that’s a big deal because some of these products sell for $1,500 a ton and have large profit margins. A $150-per-ton duty clips them but there’s still significant profit,” Tumazos said. “I don’t expect a 10-15 percent duty to change their behavior; it could actually embolden them because it’s so small.”“Dumping duties of at least 30 percent would be needed to chase them away, and 50 percent would be better,” Tumazos said.
    • Foresight Energy Bets That There’s Gold in Coal
      Illinois Miner Raises $350 Million in IPO Despite Industry’s Threats From Regulators, Natural Gas
      June 17, 2014
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/foresight-energy-bets-that-theres-gold-in-coal-1403042566?KEYWORDS=TumazosJohn Tumazos, a New Jersey investor in mining and metals stocks, says he hasn’t studied the Foresight prospectus but probably wouldn’t invest in coal right now. “I’d be concerned the thermal business is in secular decline because of carbon regulations,” he said.
    • U.S. Steel to idle two tubular plants, affecting 260
      June 2, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6214872-74/steel-tubular-plants#axzz33WTjTfurThe shutdowns are the result of several factors, according to John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.“This is a combination of less-than-expected domestic demand, lower gas prices, domestic competition from newly built mills and then foreign competition.”Drilling activity has declined, he said, because drillers are getting more output from each well drilled, and lower prices.
    • U.S. Steel issues may boost near-term prices: analysts
      April 15, 2014
      American Metal Market Daily
      By Michael Cowden”These twin interuptions at Great Lakes and Gary are unique and unprecedented,” John Tumazos, principal of Holmdel, N.J.-based John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM April 14, noting that both facilities serve similar geographic and end-use markets. This presents opportunities, but not to steel producers in the “penalty box” because of production problems, he said.”You certainly don’t want to be the one who is raising prices most if you’re also the one who can’t deliver steel,: Tumazos said. “People have long memories.”
    • U.S. Steel say cost savings rise to $290 M
      April 30, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/6034710-74/steel-million-quarter#axzz30SnjogV6Analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., estimated the company will lose 700,000 tons of finished steel because of shutdowns, about 15 to 18 percent of normal volume. The impact on profit could be $1 to $2 per share, Tumazos said.“There is an issue of how well they control the damage,” he said, in terms of business lost to competitors, discounts required to retain or recapture business, and whether impatient customers place import orders to keep plants running. Tumazos said.
    • Who will rule Malartic after Yamana-Agnico-Osisko deal?
      April 17, 2014
      Mineweb
      By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=237909&sn=DetailA note by analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazo’s Very Independent Research proclaimed in all caps: “ACQUISITION PROPOSAL POORLY UNDERSTOOD AND POORLY ACCEPTED.”“AEM’S proposal to buy ½ of Osisko in partnership with Yamana Gold caused a $457 million or 8.56% or $2.61/share meltdown in AEM’s market value, which we do not blame on the US$475 MM in new net debt-equivalents from Osisko or 33 million new AEM shares,” said Tumazos.“We believe there were ‘inefficiencies’ inherent in the complicated four-term offer AEM and AUY made for Osisko, where the market penalized AEM and AUY and rewarded GG today,” he suggested. “We suspect the 4-way negotiations were very tedious.”“In our opinion, Goldcorp’s C$7.65 bid made April 10th for Osisko in worth more than the C$8.15 April 16th bid made by AUY and AEM for Osisko,” Tumazos advised.“It could prove cheaper for Goldcorp to buy AEM after AEM share price declines than to have bought Osisko from the outset,” he observed. “We hope for AEM’s sake that Goldcorp outbids AUY and AEM, and AEM does not labor under the complex structures. We assume these complex structures were the suggestions of either Osisko or AEM’s advisors seeking fees.”
    • DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
      March 31, 2014http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MS33F20140331
    • DIARY-U.S. MEETINGS/WEEK AHEAD
      March 28, 2014http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/diary-us-meetings-week-idUSL4N0MP2SE20140328
    • Rusal derails London Metal Exchange plan to cut warehouse queues
      March 27, 2014
      Reuters
      By Eric Onstad and Veronica Brownhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-metals-warehouse-idUSBREA2Q19R20140327Shares in Alcoa Inc (AA.N), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, jumped 5.3 percent to $12.50 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. “There could be a perception that the premiums… could be larger as a result,” said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.

    • U.S. Steel curtails operations
      April 3, 2014
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/04/04/ussteel0404/stories/201404030300The Gary plant is capable of producing 7.5 million tons of steel annually, while the Great Lakes mill can produce 3.8 million tons. Both mills serve primarily the auto industry, according to John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J. He said that, depending on how long the outages last, they could create problems for motor vehicle producers.

    • U.S. Steel shuffles execs; shutdowns could cost millions, analysts say
      April 4, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5883844-74/steel-customers-cost#axzz2xrbUoXx4John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said Turk’s appointment to head the Carnegie Way “implies an effort to be more customer centric. Caterpillar is both a large manufacturer and a customer, and bringing someone in from a customer means there are profit and cost-reduction opportunities in the way U.S. Steel works with customers. The guy from CAT will take a broader view of things.”“It’s like dropping a bomb on customers when you have plant outages,” Tumazos said. “It’s a very bad break for U.S. Steel. Each location could cost millions a day, and the impact at Gary would probably be two-and-a-half times Great Lakes because of the relative size of the plants.”Tumazos estimated the financial impact of the shutdowns at $1 a share or more in the second quarter. For 2013, U.S. Steel reported a net loss of $1.67 billion, or $11.56 per share.
    • ‘Very Independent’ Tumazos highlights Largo, Rare Element Resources and Texas Rare Earth
      April 2, 2014
      Investor Intel
      By Tracy Wesloskyhttp://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/independent-tumazos-highlights-largo-rare-element-resources-texas-rare-earth/
    • Mega Precious Metals Webcast Presentation is Available From the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining ConferenceNEW YORK, NEW YORK–(Marketwired – April 1, 2014) – Mega Precious Metals’ (TSX:MGP) webcast from the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference is available on the link below and on its website www.megapmi.com. Glen Kuntz, President & CEO, presented to a group of institutional investors this morning.WEBCAST LINK
      http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/mgp.v/Mega Precious Metals Inc. is a leading Canadian-based exploration company with a high quality pipeline of projects located in the mining friendly jurisdictions of Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario and Nunavut. The Company’s significant portfolio includes the flagship Monument Bay Gold Tungsten Project in NE Manitoba as well as the N. Madsen Gold Project in the prolific gold mining district of Red Lake, Ontario. Mega has established a record of delivering rapid growth through their focused and low cost approach to exploration and resource development. The Company’s common shares trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol MGP.For further information and presentation material, please review the Mega website at www.megapmi.com.CONTACT INFORMATION:
      Mega Precious Metals Inc.
      Glen Kuntz, P.Geo.
      President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
      O: 807-766-3380
      TF: 877-592-3380
      info@megapmi.com
    • X2 Resources Raises Up to $3.75 Billion
      Former Xstrata CEO Mick Davis to Finance Midsize Metals, Mining Group

      March 31, 2014
      The Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Miller, Alistair MacDonald, and Alex MacDonaldhttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304157204579472872228153100?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mg=reno64-wsj“Mick is likely going to pursue a low-risk strategy,” adds John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investor and analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.

    • Virginia Mines Corporate Presentation Monday March 31, 2014Virginia Mines will be presenting at John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference a corporate presentation on Monday March 31, 2014 at 2:15 p.m.(EDT)The conference will be held at The Westin Grand Central Hotel, 212 East 42nd Street, New York.A webcast will be launched. Click here to access the Webcast.For more information please contact:
      Stéphanie Boivin at info@minesvirginia.com

    • Orient Paper to Attend John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference in New York
      March 24, 2014http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=66600592&topic=ONP&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=101168BAODING, China, March 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKD: ONP) (“Orient Paper” or the “Company”), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, today announced that Mr. Winston Yen, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference, to be held on March 31, 2014 in New York, NY. Details for the conference are as follows:John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference
      Date: Monday March 31, 2014
      Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
      Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
      Organizers: John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
      Webcast Link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13Investors who wish to meet Mr. Yen may contact the Company’s investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference, please contact John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC

    • Orvana Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research ConferencePresentation Information: Michael Winship, Interim President and CEO will be presenting at 4:00 pm ET on Monday, March 31, 2014Register to View Presentation: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13/

    • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference on March 31st
      March 26, 2014http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=94SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, March 26, 2014 (MARKETWIRED) – Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Chairman of the Board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Thirteenth Metals and Natural Resources Conference on Monday, March 31st at 5:10 p.m. Eastern in NYC.  The Conference will be available via webcast.John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference Details:
      Date: Monday March 31, 2014
      Presenting Time: 5:10 PM Eastern
      Location: Westin New York Grand Central Hotel 212 East 42nd Street, New York
      Tract: Natural Resources
      For more information please visit:
      http://veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_31,_2014.htmWebcasting Link: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir13

    • Apollo cutting Noranda stake to 34 percent
      March 12, 2014
      American Metals Market
      By Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3318405/Nonferrous/Apollo-cutting-Noranda-stake-to-34-percent.html

      Apollo probably hadn’t planned to own Noranda for as long as it has, independent analyst John Tumazos said, noting that private equity firms generally prefer to sell more quickly.  But that’s llikely not an option in the current market.”So then the public market is the only exit mechanism.  You want to think of this like you’re trying to get rid of a bad girlfriend,” Tumazos said.Apollo bought Noranda at the top of the aluminum market in 2007, a year before the “bottom fell out,” he said.  “This is a (timing error) of epic proportions, where Apollo bought within weeks of a multidecade high in aluminum prices.”Xstrata Plc sold Noranda Aluminum Inc. to Apollo for $1.15 billion in 2007 (amm.com April 11, 2007).
      “It’s an extraordinary achievement that Noranda has survived all of the tough events since Apollo bought in because there has been no good luck in this business since then.”
    • Gold industry must rebuild credibility and refine focus – Tumazos
      March 7, 2014
      Mineweb
      By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=231968&sn=DetailMining analyst John Tumazos urges the CEOs of major gold companies “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”Recently at PDAC, mining analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research noted he received “an earful from in-my-face managers offended that I did not appreciate the wonderful mines or development projects they had conceived.”What incurred the managers’ wrath was a February 28th letter Tumazos sent to the CEOs of gold mining companies, Barrick, Newmont, Goldcorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Agnico-Eagle and Kinross, urging them “to renounce construction of complex large mines, whether in this hemisphere or remote locations.”Tumazos estimated that through February 27th, gold mines have written off $45 billion before taxes for calendar 2013 and “$72 billion since 2008 solely for precious metals aside from copper or energy mishaps. These charges are very large in relation to historic dividends or earnings and have shaken confidence.”
    • Falling prices may negate U.S. Steel cost-cutting plan
      February 22, 2014
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/business/2014/02/23/Falling-prices-may-negate-U-S-Steel-cost-cutting-plan/stories/201402230118

      Analyst John Tumazos said domestic producers also will be dented by the stronger U.S. dollar, which makes imports more competitively priced compared to domestically produced steel.”It’s difficult to pass price hikes when the dollar strengthens,” the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said.Despite that, Mr. Tumazos is expecting an improved performance from the Pittsburgh company this year.”I think U.S. Steel’s costs will fall more than prices might. And there’s a good chance they won’t lose money in 2014,” he said.Despite the concern about lower prices, U.S. Steel shares topped $30 in January, nearly 70 percent higher than they were when Mr. Longhi took over Sept. 1.Their ascent reflected investor confidence that the former Alcoa executive will be able to right the ship, optimism Mr. Tumazos jokingly referred to as “the Super Mario bubble.”
    • South Korea escapes pipe-dumping duties
      February 18, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5618919-74/steel-dumping-tons#axzz2thy4Dcj5“It affected a couple of countries, but had no affect on others,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J. “It’s better to spend time on cutting costs like (CEO) Mario Longhi at U.S. Steel is doing than pursue anti-dumping suits, which are not effective.”Tumazos said, “In many ways, trade cases are a waste of time and expensive, costing several million dollars each. They distract management and send a bad message to the rank and file, who don’t feel they have to reduce costs. They are as significant as the kicking game in football to the overall outcome.”As a result of this case, U.S. Steel might ship 100,000 more tons of tubing and get $25-$50 more per ton sold, Tumazos said.The overall market for oil and gas tubing is about 3 million to 4 million tons per year, Tumazos said, based on industry reports.As much a problem as imports is new domestic manufacturing capacity. “Everybody except U.S. Steel is building a tube mill,” Tumazos said. They include the Vallourec plant in Youngstown, and others by Borusan Mannesmann in Baytown, Texas, Tenaris in Bay City, Texas, and Benteler in Caddo, La.“There are competitive factors over and above the imports,” he said. “There was more demand anticipated than actually happened. There are three to five more tube mills in the U.S. than are needed. It’s going to be competitive unless demand brings natural gas prices back to $7 (per mcf) on a sustained basis.”
    • Allegheny Technologies’ 4Q profit up despite lower sales
      January 22, 2014
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/5462717-74/million-ati-business#axzz2rAOtgOQL

      “They had an unusually bad quarter in titanium and a loss from operations. It was not a quarter to write home about,” said analyst John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.Tumazos said the market was reacting to the fact that only one of Allegheny Technologies various businesses, high-nickel alloys, had reasonable performance in 2013.“Their fourth quarter was perverse,” he said, citing only eight million pounds of titanium sold during the period, even as Boeing is increasing production of its 787 Dreamliner from 10 to 14 planes per month.“I think Allegheny is improving, but they’ve got to get more out of titanium, their core stainless steel and forging businesses,” Tumazos said.Tumazos said the key for the company will be the Brackenridge mill. “It’s going to be huge; in the fourth-quarter, in 2015 and 2016, they should see the benefits,” he said. “It’s the mother of all rolling mills, the most versatile in the world.”Tumazos said the sale of the tungsten business was the “right thing to do.” That combined with ATI’s other plant closings means management will have 13 fewer plants, and can focus on Brackenridge. “They have simplified the company.”
    • Alcoa to pay $384 million to settle Bahrain bribery charges
      January 9, 2014
      Reuters
      By Allison Martellhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/09/us-alcoa-settlement-idUSBREA080PN20140109

      “I don’t think there is too much relevance to the current personnel or the future. It is water under the bridge,” said John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research.
    • Lessons from Barrick Gold’s Pascua Lama
      November 7, 2013
      SNL Metals Economics Group
      By Tiffany GrabskiLessons from Barrick Gold’s Pascua Lama.pdfCapEx projections have nearly tripled since the 2009 estimate to at least US$8.5 billion– with more than US$5 billion already spent–which John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research sees as the consequence of a sector that has become “hypnotized.””What is going on is the dynamic related to building things fast, what I call the hypnosis or brainwashing,” Tumazos told SNL, a dynamic that has upped costs and decreased direct responsibility.Adding to that, “this hypnosis’ that you have to build [projects] fast, is just what the contractors want, because there is no oversight checks or balances,” which Tumazos said is at the root of Pascua Lama’s current state and a warnings to other miners who may be following the same path.”Barrick used to brag two or three years ago that they have lots of their own managers to watch the contractors, but at one point early this year, Barrick hired a second engineering firm to watch the first — that’s like three levels of cost inefficiency and stupidity,” Tumazos said.”I suspect what they are trying to do is create a manageable process,” Tumazos told SNL, adding that he thinks it was “only good that Barrick put the project on hold.””By demobilizing and going back to square one, they are trying to watch the process, which I think is progress,” Tumazos said.Tumazos also suggested that Barrick might choose to develop the project in stages, rather than the full throttle 850,000 ounces per gold original plan. “They might start up at a third or half in the first year and build it in phases,” he said.

    • U.S. Steel to close Canadian plant, Gary coke facilities to cut costs
      October 29, 2013
      Trib Live Business
      By John D. Oraveczhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/4964727-74/steel-million-longhi#axzz2j8Xk8FL2John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said the company faces a decision on its Fairfield, Ala., Works, which faces intense competition from at least six mills built in the South in recent years, amid a declining market for steel.In the last six years, steel shipments in the United States have declined from 109.5 million tons in 2006 to a projected 95.7 million tons this year, a decline of 14 million. In addition, steel imports have declined by an additional 14 million tons over the same period. “The steel market is 28 million tons less,” he said. Fairfield is an issue because “16 million to 17 million tons of capacity have been built in their lap as the market has gotten smaller,” Tumazos said, referring to the new mills.

    • Veris Gold Corp. Presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference
      October 11, 2013Mr. Shaun Heinrichs will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference on Wednesday, October 16th at 7:40 AM (PST) / 10:40 AM (EST). The conference will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel.Link to the Webcast

    • Entree Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference October 16, 2013Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place October 16, 2013. Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 2:20 pm (EDT) during the Natural Resources track. The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017).

    • Glencore, Vale discuss merger of nickel operations in Ontario
      October 11, 2013
      The Globe and Mail
      by Eric Reguly and Marta Lillohttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/glencore-vale-revive-talks-over-canadian-nickel-tie-up-sources/article14827267/“Nickel has become a financial catastrophe for Vale in Canada,” said John Tumazos, research analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “Also, the CAD has strengthened since Vale acquired Inco, making it more expensive to pay wages. Meanwhile, nickel prices have fallen about 75 per cent since 2007.”
    • Orvana To Attend The John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
      October 15, 2013
      http://www.orvana.com/news/pdf/131015-2.pdfTORONTO, ONTARIO, October 15, 2013 – Orvana Minerals Corp. (TSX:ORV, the “Company”) a multimine gold and copper producer, reports that Michael Winship, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference at 11:20 am (ET) on October 16, 2013. The conference will take place in New York, NY.Interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast by visiting the front page of the Company website at www.orvana.com.

    • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference
      October 10, 2013http://trer.com/news/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=74SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, October 10, 2013 (MARKETWIRE) — Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that Anthony Marchese, Non-Executive Chairman, will present at the Very Independent Research Metals & Mining Conference on October 16th in New York City.Metals & Mining Presentation Details:
      Where:
      Westin New York Grand Central Hotel
      212 East 42nd Street
      New York, NY 10017When:
      Wednesday, October 16th at 3:40 p.m.
      Webcast Link:  Please click here
      Conference Website:  http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/
    • Comstock Mining To Present At The New York City Metals & Mining Conference Hosted By John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
      October 9, 2013http://www.comstockmining.com/news/press-releasesVIRGINIA CITY, Nev., Oct. 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Comstock Mining Inc. (“Comstock Mining” or “the Company”) (NYSE MKT: LODE), a producing, Nevada-based, gold and silver mining company, today announced that Mr. Corrado De Gasperis, President and CEO, will present on Wednesday, October 16, 2013, at the Metals & Mining Conference hosted by John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC.
    • Is Wall Street warehousing the price of aluminum?
      October 6, 2013
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      by Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/is-wall-street-warehousing-the-price-of-aluminum-706363/One longtime metals industry analyst disagrees.”I believe the complaints of the beverage brewing customers are completely valid,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst.Warehouses “bring it in, but they don’t bring it out”, he (Tumazos) added.
    • Can U.S. Steel stage a comeback?
      Many of its problems are the product of a management that is being replaced wholesale
      August 25, 2013
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/can-us-steel-stage-comeback-700640/Analyst John Tumazos told clients last month that U.S. Steel “may not be able to achieved sustained profitability unless either domestic steel demand increased 10 percent, capacity falls 10 percent or some combination”

    • Heard Off the Street: Investors, the trend is not always your friend
      August 4, 2013
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-investors-the-trend-is-not-always-your-friend-698028/If people drive less, they will be able to hold onto their cars longer, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals industry analyst. “If people drive their cars 10 percent fewer miles, their cars will last 10 percent longer, and they’ll buy 10 percent fewer.”

    • Metals writedowns since 2008 breach $200bn – Tumazos
      July 31, 2013
      Mineweb
      by Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-mining-finance-investment-old?oid=199293&sn=DetailIn a recent analysis, John Tumazos Very Independent Research attributed metals and mining writedowns to “volatile reversals from the 1975-78, 1982-86, 1997-2003 and 2012-13 commodity price depressions to 2004-08 to 2010-11 ‘Supercycle Euphoria’.”Mining and Metals Analyst John Tumazos observed that the total of metals write-downs from 2008 to 2013 will breach the $200 billion mark this year.In his analysis, Tumazos notes, “Since 2008 the break down by sector…is Gold $48.9 billion, Aluminum and Alumina $42.3 billion, Integrated Steel $27.8 billion, Copper $25.9 billion, Nickel $12.8 billion, Met Coal $9.8 billion…Platinum $2.2 billion, Thermal Coal $1.8 billion…Diamonds $1.1 billion, Molybdenum $0.7 billion…Rare Earths $0.3 billion, Uranium $0.3 billion, and Silver $0.1 billion.”Year-to-date, the 2013 metals total is $19.9 billion of gold and $2.7 billion of nongold writedowns including $900 million for integrated steel, $200 million in iron ore, $500 million in coal, $500 million in energy and $500 million in the others category.“Some companies reported June 30th results without writing down assets that we view as eventual writedowns by year-end 2015, including Nucor (scrap acqs), Steel Dynamics (scrap acqs), Goldcorp (El Morro cu-au) and Newmont (Conga au-cu). Perhaps we anticipate half of those yet to come,” he observed.The largest losses from 2008-2013 have been Rio Tinto $36.2B, Barrick Gold $19.4B, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & gold $17.7B, ArcelorMittal Steel $16.6B, BHP Billiton $11.9B, ThyssenKrupp $10.2B, Kinross Gold $10.2B, Anglo American $9.8B, Vale $7.2B, Newcrest Mining $7.1B, AngloGold Ashanti $6.6b, Xstrata $6.6B, Newmont Mining $6B, Kazakhmys $3,8B, Alpha Natural Resources $2.8B, Goldcorp $2.6B, Cliffs Natural Resources $1.8B, Alcoa $1.6B, Glencore $1.5B, Eurasian Natural Resources $1.5B, and Agnico-Eagle $1.2B, according to Tumazos.In his analysis, Tumazos observed that hedging and the Pascua-Lama project in Chile have contributed most of Barrick Gold’s losses to date. However, bad operations or projects were a minority of Rio Tinto, AcelorMittal, and BHP’s losses.“In general, small losses (under $1 billion) involved aged operations, cap ex overruns, no permits, currency shifts or other mishaps,” Tumazos noted. “Big losses usually were big buyouts.
    • John Tumazos Schedule 13D Texas Rare Earth Resources
      TRER 13D_A2 – executed.pdf
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Board Changes
      Marketwatch
      June 5, 2013
      http://www.marketwatch.com/story/texas-rare-earth-resources-announces-board-changes-2013-06-05SIERRA BLANCA, Texas, Jun 05, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) — Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (otcqx:TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced the appointment of Mr. Anthony Marchese as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board after having served as a director of the Company and Chairman of the Audit Committee since December 2009. Mr. Marchese replaces Mr. John Tumazos, who has resigned from the board. The company has also appointed Ms. Laura Lynch to the Board of Directors.
    • Form 8-K for TEXAS RARE EARTH RESOURCES CORP.
      31-May-2013
      Change in Directors or Principal OfficersItem 5.02. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain OfficersOn May 27, 2013, Mr. John Tumazos resigned as a director and non-executive chairman of the board of the Corporation. Mr. Tumazos resigned from the board to dedicate more of his time to his own business and personal pursuits.Mr. Tumazos has informed the board that while he was pleased at the metallurgical progress evident in the company’s press releases between March 20, 2013 and May 8, 2013, his resignation was due to his disagreement with certain policy decisions of the board regarding the operations of the Corporation and his belief that now is the appropriate time to sell the Corporation to a larger concern.The board does not believe that his concerns as expressed to the board were truly disagreements with the board’s fundamental business strategy for the Corporation and its operations. The board takes its obligation to increase shareholder value seriously and is actively considering all pathways available to the Corporation while also finalizing the Corporation’s current technical work to prove out alternative production methodologies from its Preliminary Economic Assessment of June 2012. The board believes that finalizing these methodologies in a cost efficient manner while simutaneously pursuing alternative strategic arrangements, including the possibility of selling the Corporation, is the best path to maximize shareholder value. The board has overseen a drastic reduction of the Corporation’s use of funds and remains dedicated to using Corporate funds in an efficient manner best suited to maximizing the Corporation’s value. The board will continue to consistently, actively consider and pursue all available opportunities for the Corporation and will engage qualified consultants as deemed necessary and appropriate by the board to effectively assist the board in evaluating and implementing its strategy, including if deemed appropriate, in assisting in selling the Corporation.The Corporation thanks Mr. Tumazos for his dedicated service to the Corporation and looks forward to continuing to work with Mr. Tumazos as a significant shareholder of the Corporation to maximize value.Pursuant to Item 5.02(a)(3), this Form 8-K has been provided to Mr. Tumazos. The Corporation will promptly file any letter provided by Mr. Tumazos in relation thereto by amendment to this Form 8-K.John Tumazos Resignation Letter: TRER jct resignation for 8k June 3.pdf8K Filed on EDGAR: TRER 8k jct resignation May 31 2013.pdf
    • U.S. Steel promotes COO Mario Longhi to president
      May 31, 2013
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      by Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-promotes-coo-mario-longhi-to-president-689731/Analyst John Tumazos said the purpose of giving Mr. Longhi more responsibilities is to “attack costs and bring a fresh perspective from the outside.””The company is attacking their costs for their survival and the prosperity of the company,” the Holmdel, N.J., analyst said. “What U.S. Steel is doing is the right thing.”U.S. Steel is not the only metals producer suffering. Mr. Tumazos said Pittsburgh specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies and aluminum producer Alcoa also have failed to capitalize on the recovery.”All three companies are the same. None of them are in good shape if six to 12 months from now we have a recession,” Mr. Tumazos said.

    • U.S. Steel promotes Mario Longhi to president
      May 30, 2013
      Trib Live Business
      by Thomas Olsonhttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/4109921-74/longhi-steel-president#axzz2UsNYFFoX“I interpret Mario’s title (of president) as signifying the importance of lowering the cost of operating the company. The board is preparing for tougher days,” said John Tumazos, head of Tumazos Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J.”John (Surma) may rejoice at having someone help him do the cost reductions,” said Tumazos.
    • Steel prices fall before scrap in ‘curious’ move
      May 3, 2013
      American Metal Market
      by Samuel Frizellhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3201325/Steel/Mills-tweak-steel-prices-before-scrap-in-curious-move.html“Mills could have greater control over their pricing if they moved away from surcharges, a number of analysts told AMM. ‘It’s logical that the mills would not want their customers asking them for a $20 per ton price drop every time the scrap price falls,” said John Tumaos, senior analyst and owner of Very Independent Research.
    • Heard Off the Street: U.S. Steel woes surprise analysts
      May 5, 2013
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      by Len Boselovic
      http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/opinion/heard-off-the-street-us-steel-woes-surprise-analysts-686356/Any cost-cutting efforts will be hampered by the company’s labor agreements with the United Steelworkers union, commercial contracts and other factors, said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. He said renegotiating medical benefits for union workers and retirees could result in substantial savings. But a good portion of those costs were fixed in September, when USW members ratified a three-year labor agreement covering about 17,000 U.S. workers.Mr. Surma’s “mission appears to be to save more than nine figures, or $4 to $5 a ton. Given the condition of the steel market, they need something like $20 or more,” Mr. Tumazos said.Having Mr. Longhi, a newcomer to the company, manage the review should be a good thing, he (Tumazos) added.”He is not accustomed to the status quo and has a fresh look,” Mr. Tumazos said.
    • Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER’s Rich Round Top ProjectProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/?p=43129YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icO3OE-Y-VUSocial Media: #Beryllium: a Key Asset in #TRER’s Rich Round Top Project: http://youtu.be/icO3OE-Y-VU via @youtube #texasrareearthresourceMay 2, 2013 — John Tumazos, President, Chairman, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TSXV: ZEN) in an interview with Dave Glover for ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) describes the characteristics of the Round Top project in Hudspeth County, Texas. John states “There’s a high enriched uranium zone and beryllium zone, which we believe is the richest beryllium resource in the world.” For the balance of 2013 Texas Rare Earth Resources will be focusing “…rigorously engineering our process.”Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER) is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities.Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.trer.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.Regards,
      Sean Benson
    • Alcoa may cut output as prices continue dive
      American Metal Market
      May 1, 2013
      by Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3199756/Search/Results/Alcoa-may-cut-output-as-prices-continue-dive.html?Keywords=alcoa&OrderType=1

      “This is a logical reaction to where current aluminum prices are and various pockets of weakness in different parts of the world,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. “It’s unfortunate, but when (the aluminum price) is 80 cents (per pound) these things are going to happen.”Aluminum producers might have missed a window to secure lower power prices as natural gas prices have recovered over the past year, Tumazos said. “The recovery of natural gas to $4.40 (per mm BTU) reduces the likelihood of deep concessionary power contracts and raises the possibility of a minor, mild recovery in coal prices. The window for getting deep concessionary power contracts was $1.90 (mm BTU) gas – – 13 months ago…..So the cheap power window is now gone, and the aluminum price is lousy.”
    • UPDATE AND CLARIFICATIONS: 1/3 of global gold mines have pre-tax costs of $1,250-$1,750-Tumazos16 out of 49 publicly traded gold producers have very low pre-tax costs accounting for 11.5 million gold ounces, says a recent survey by John Tumazos Very Independent Research.Author: Dorothy Kosich
      Posted: Wednesday , 17 Apr 2013
      MINEWEB LINK: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=186433&sn=Detail
      RENO (MINEWEB) -A survey by of 49 publicly traded companies accounting for 60% of world gold output, which was conducted by New Jersey’s John Tumazos Very Independent Research, estimates that one-third of gold mines have pretax costs of $1,250 to $1,750 per ounce.“The selloff from $1,900 in September 2011 to nearly $1,350 on April 15th places prices squarely within the costs of the highest one-third of mines,” wrote long-time gold analyst John Tumazos.“Large gold mines have about $450 per oz of other costs beyond mine cash production costs such as exploration, SG&A, interest, depreciation, etc.,” said Tumazos. “In 2013 we estimated ABX [Barrick] at $422, NEW [Newmont] at $449 and GG [Goldcorp] at $453 per oz.”“There were 16 of 49 companies with very low costs, having all mines <$800 direct cash production costs, accounting for 23% or 11.5 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 tonne sample,” the survey revealed. “There were 15 of 49 companies with very high costs, having all mines >$800 direct cash costs, for 12% or 5.8 mm oz of our 49.1 mm oz or 1,528 t sample.”In a statement received by Mineweb Wednesday, Tumazos clarified that only four companies, not the five originally contained in his analysis—Sibanye Gold (just spun out of Gold Fields), and DRD Gold, Veris Gold (Jerritt Canyon, NV) and about ¾ of Harmony Gold–have direct costs exceeding $1,000 for all mines. “These companies are under the most pressure,” he noted.Tumazos predicted, “While a few old mines will be lost, unfunded new projects slated for 2016 or 2017 may likely die off given the lack of gold mine equity capital. We estimate that up to 5% of current output may wither then die, but 10% of prospective 2016 or 2017 output will not arrive on time.”In his analysis Tumazos observed the cost structure of the global gold mining industry suggests a temporary spike below $1,000 gold is improbable. “We stop short of using the word ‘impossible’, but it is clear that costs are about three times as high as they were a decade ago as the mining boom began. Lower grade mines, $90 per barrel crude oil, appreciated resource currencies, wage inflation, government royalties and natural productivity losses to depth have driven costs higher. This is another factor suggesting to us that the past month’s decline in gold prices constitute a ‘panic.’”Over long periods of time such as five or more years, Tumazos expects gold mining costs to rise as open pit and underground mines deepen to lose productivity and suffer high stripping, metallurgies grow more complex at depth and grades decline.Tumazos also advised that direct cash production costs may change with currency, mine practices or other input costs. “Higher cutoffs grades, deferred stripping, deferred underground tunnel, stope and infrastructure development and bypassing hard-to-mine zones can cut costs by 25% or more for a year or two. Exploration and administrative charges will fall.”Observing that base metals mines account for cost to 20% of world gold mine output, Tumazos said, “Recent prices near $7 for nickel, $0.80 for zinc, $0.90 for lead and $3.25 per lb for copper put mild pressure on some of those mines.”
    • TRER’s Texas Sized Rare Earth Deposit Advantage
      April 4, 2013
      ProEdgeWire
      ProEdgeWire Link: http://www.proedgewire.com/rare-earth-tv/trers-texas-sized-rare-earth-deposit-advantage/
      Youtube Link:
      http://youtu.be/IQYKkJnlFE8April 4 2013 — John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER, OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states “…we think we’ll have the lowest mining costs per ton of any (copper mine, iron ore mine) mine in North America of like size.” Adding: “We have a billion pounds of heavy rare earth oxides” and the “…richest beryllium deposit in the world.” And concludes with infrastructure advantages such as the land buffer package the State of Texas has placed around their property.TRER is a U.S.-based minerals company engaged in the exploration and development of critical rare earth elements and in the pursuit of precious metals opportunities. Their primary focus is exploring and, if warranted, developing its Round Top rare earth minerals project located in Hudspeth County, Texas, 85 miles east of El Paso.Disclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (www.TRER.com) is an advertorial member of ProEdgeWire.If you need any additional assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me.Regards,
      Sean Benson
    • U.S. Steel plant’s fate unsolved, Slovak prime minister says
      by Alex Nixon
      March 25, 2013
      Trib Live Business
      http://triblive.com/business/headlines/3724303-74/steel-plant-slovakia#axzz2OgQJzmWlU.S. Steel had hoped to sell the plant, but industry analyst John Tumazos, with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said economics don’t favor that.“The way that the world has unfolded in the last two years does not make it easy to sell steel from Kosice,” Tumazos said. “I don’t think it’s in the power of the Slovak government to make steel prices higher or production costs lower.”The Serbian plant accounted for most of the $200 million loss on European operations U.S. Steel recorded in 2011, Tumazos said.“It appeared when they were running the two plants that Kosice was break-even,” he (Tumazos) said. “But conditions seem to be worse than when they walked out of Serbia.”

    • Entrée Gold to Present at the Upcoming John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference March 28, 2013Entrée Gold is pleased to announce that Lindsay Bottomer, VP Business Development and Director, will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference taking place March 28, 2013.The event will be held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel (212 East 42nd Street, New York, New York 10017). Mr. Bottomer is scheduled to speak at 10:20 am (est).Presentation slides and a simultaneous audio webcast of the presentation will be available through the following link:
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC’s Metals & Mining Conference Webcast

      A link to the webcast along with presentation slides will also be available on the Entrée Gold website:
      http://www.entreegold.com/investors/presentations/Please contact us if you require further information.
      Kind regards,
      Entrée Gold Inc.Monica Hamm
      Manager Investor Relations
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the Very Independent Research Conference on March 28thMarch 25, 2013- Sierra Blanca, TX- Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX:TRER) (“Texas Rare Earth”), a heavy rare earths exploration company, today announced that John C. Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, will present at the Very Independent Research Conference on Thursday, March 28th at 5:05 p.m. Eastern in NYCVery Independent Research Conference Details:
      Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
      Presenting Time: 5:05 p.m. Eastern
      Location: Westin Grand Central 212 East 42nd Street, New York
      Tract: Natural ResourcesFor more information including webcasting please visit
      http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/register.aspx?conf=vir11&page=index&url=http%3A//www.wsw.com/webcast/vir11/.

    • Orient Paper to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in New YorkBAODING, China, March 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Orient Paper, Inc. (NYSE MKT: ONP) (“Orient Paper” or the “Company”), a leading manufacturer and distributor of diversified paper products in North China, announced today that it will be presenting at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference on March 28, 2013.The date, time and location of Orient Paper’s presentation at the conference are as follows:
      Date: Thursday, March 28, 2013
      Time: 8:35 to 9:10 a.m. US Eastern Time
      Presenter: Mr. Winston Yen, Chief Financial Officer
      Venue: Westin Grand Central, 212 East 42nd Street, New York, NYThe presentation will be available for download from the Company’s website at http://www.orientpaperinc.com/corporate-presentation.html on March 29, 2013Investors who wish to meet with Orient Paper’s management may contact John Tumazos via john@veryindependentresearch.com from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC or the Company’s investor relations advisor via ir@orientpaperinc.com. For more information about the conference and registration, please visit:http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/march_28,_2013.htm

    • U.S. Steel, Nucor CEOs urge caution on natural gas exports
      March 22, 2013
      by John D. Oravecz
      Trib Live Businesshttp://triblive.com/business/headlines/3703788-74/gas-steel-natural#axzz2OGoc8M4dJohn Tumazos, a steel analyst with Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., said the U.S. Steel and Nucor comments were self-serving.“If you own ground in Beaver or Westmoreland counties with shale gas, and got royalties, you’d want the producer to sell for the highest price. … A natural gas producer in a free-market economy should be able to sell to whomever he wants.”

      “In the long run I don’t think exports will be a big deal,” Tumazos said. The process of cooling natural gas to a liquid is complicated, demanding and expensive. “I’ll be surprised if 10 (percent) to 20 percent is exported.”

      Steel analyst Tumazos said it’s unfortunate that Chinese companies are subsidized, but American manufacturers that make products from steel are “at a disadvantage if they don’t get cheaper steel.”

      He (Tumazos) said steelmakers should cut prices to discourage imports and sell more products here and overseas.In the era when hot-rolled coil sold for $300 to $400 a ton, companies watched costs more closely. With prices now at $620 or higher, they aren’t as diligent, he (Tumazos) said.

    • Aluminum pins 2013 hopes on political fortunes
      December 31, 2012
      by Suzy Waite
      American Metal Markethttp://www.amm.com/Article/3155193/Aluminum-pins-2013-hopes-on-political-fortunes.htmlJohn Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. agreed. “China is growing, but not as fast. And the Chinese are expanding production when demand is slower,” he said. “U.S. and European output doesn’t matter. The issue is whether the Chinese expand five, 10 or 15 percent. They are 45 percent of world output, and no one thinks (demand) will grow by 10 or 12 percent (in 2013)””I think you have to be worried (about the price) when there are consecutive weeks of record exchange inventories and most regions in the world appear to be slowing,” said Tumazos, who expects the average aluminum price to hover around $1,984 per tonne this year.
    • Title: TRER a ‘multi-trick pony’ Deposit with 25 Minerals: 15 Rare Earths and 2 Energy MineralsCONTENT: John Tumazos, Chairman of the Board, Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQX: TRER) in an interview with Tracy Weslosky, Publisher of ProEdgeWire (ProEdgeWire.com) states: “We believe we are the richest beryllium deposit known” and adds “we think we have the best logistics in the world and the lowest mining costs per ton of any mine in North America of any type.”Tumazos noted that TRER is a “multi-trick pony” deposit having 25 minerals, 15 of which rare earths and two energy minerals. TRER has the capability to recover 18 or 19 of these, which suggests that the property could “earn an economic return from the 15 rare earths alone or uranium and thorium alone”. TRER can also capitalize on its beryllium (298,000 ton historical resource estimate) and niobium resources. It should be an exciting 2013 for TRERDisclaimer: Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. is a member of ProEdgeWire.Interview Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqQoT_mo4A&feature=youtu.be
    • Vale’s nickel production down 1.9% in 2012
      February 4, 2013
      by Carolina Guerra
      Metal Bulletinhttp://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3150453/Vales-nickel-production-down-19-in-2012.html“Many many problems exist in the nickel supply-demand balance and specific Vale operations, where Vale employs billions of dollars of assets to earn little or nothing prior to impairments,” John Tumazos, from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, told Metal Bulletin.“I think their best strategy for nickel is to try to fix their mines not started up to full potential, and wait for a better time with a stronger world economy,” Tumazos added referring to a current situation of low prices and high refined inventories in the nickel market.
    • US construction to help copper in 2013
      January 24, 2013
      By Suzy Waite
      American Metal Markethttp://www.amm.com/Article/3146208/US-construction-to-help-copper-in-2013.html“I think copper is the tightest of the metals,” said John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC. “But I don’t think it is a complete statement.” While some companies are delaying projects, others such as a Rio Tinto PLC and Freeport, are expanding copper production, which could put excess copper on the marketplace, he said.

    • Anglo’s New CEO Takes Tough Task
      January 9, 2013
      By Devon Maylie and John Miller
      The Wall Street Journalhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323706704578229531018722450.htmlAnglo American’s Minas Rio project in Brazil “is going to be a headache no matter who runs it,” said analyst John Tumazos, a New Jersey analyst who owns 8,000 shares of Anglo American. “It’s going to take time before he knows enough to add value there with his expertise.” He (Tumazos) predicted that Mr. Cutifani would write down the investment at the first opportunity.

    • Beryllium: a Key Asset in TRER’s Strategy
      Proedgewire
      December 6, 2012
      by Alessandro Brunohttp://proedgewire.com/rare-earth-intel/beryllium-a-key-asset-in-trers-strategy-for-future-growth/“The beryllium mineralization structure, according to Trer, is present alongside areas of potentially economic grade uranium deposits. Trer has also found evidence to suggest that this mineralization also exists under Sierra Blanca. Based on the Cyprus results there could be as much as 298,000 short tons at 1.9% of beryllium ore, which would guarantee sufficient resources to operate for several years given that the beryllium market is rather small at around 100 tons a year. Indeed, Chairman, John Tumazos, believes that Trer’s deposits “is one of the largest and richest in the world”. The extraction process, moreover, would be based around the original tunnel built by Cyprus inside the mountain, which should be capable of yielding some 30,000 tons. Beryllium is mostly found in the United States and Kazakhstan, which also hold the only related processing facilities.”

    • Clarification and Retraction of Technical Disclosure
      Galway Resources Press Release
      December 7, 2012http://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=560770&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Clarification-and-Retraction-of-Technical-DisclosureJohn Tumazos Very Independent Research Explanation: We removed the August 20, 2008 John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions memorandum on the Victorio molybdenum-tungsten deposit from our John Tumazos Very Independent Opinions website, http://www.veryindependentopinions.com/  following a November 4, 2011 visit to the New Mexico site as our 2008 memorandum had become outdated.

    • Heard Off the Street: Aerospace firms facing a dilemma
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      November 18, 2012
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/heard-off-the-street-aerospace-firms-facing-a-dilemma-662599/Consequently, their suppliers “want to sell a system or solutions rather than something that costs so many cents a pound,” said John Tumazos, an industry analyst from Holmdel, N.J.”They know they have a bunch of businesses that are not well understood in the market,” Mr. Tumazos said. “Aerospace investors treat the steel company like a liability.”
    • U.S. Steel weighs bids for Slovakia plant
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      November 14, 2012
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-steel-weighs-bids-for-slovakia-plant-662001/“The Slovak mill is a good mill. It’s doing really well not to lose money this year given that Europe’s not so good,” said John Tumazos, an industry analyst based in Holmdel, N.J.He (Tumazos) said the plant is worth more now than it was when U.S. Steel arrived, based on investments the steel producer has made during its tenure.Mr. Tumazos said ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel producer, probably is not interested because it is slashing costs. Stung by a $709 million third-quarter loss, the Luxembourg steel producer will save $1 billion annually by slashing its dividend from 75 cents to 20 cents. ArcelorMittal’s chairman, CEO and president, Lakshmi Mittal, “is a seller these days, not a buyer,” Mr. Tumazos said.
    • Thompson Creek offering $350 M in notes
      American Metal Market
      November 13, 2012
      By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3117336/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creek-offering-350M-in-notes.htmlAnalyst John Tumazos of Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC agreed that revolving credit facilities were more constraining, involving “strict covenants, regular oversight and ongoing input as (to) how to run the business,” and the replacement of the revolving facility would be a positive development for the company.”Management chooses a higher interest rate cost and higher underwriting fee schedule from a ‘junk bond’ in place of bank debt to keep management jobs,” Tumazos told AMM in an e-mail. “More debt and higher financing costs will not make the company healthier.”
    • Thompson Creek’s Loughrey announces plans to retire
      American Metal Market
      November 9, 2012
      By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3116080/Nonferrous/Thompson-Creeks-Loughrey-announces-plans-to-retire.html“Usually in a financially weak company, the creditors or banks appoint the successor chief executive officer, which is what I would expect here,” John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, told AMM. “I think Kevin will be replaced by someone whose job is to prevent the company from spending any discretionary money, such as the lenders might dictate,” adding that personnel cuts at the company were likely.
    • Yukon-Nevada Gold Presents at John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conferencehttp://www.yukon-nevadagold.com/s/Events.asp?ReportID=539703&_Type=Events&_Title=John-Tumazos-Very-Independent-Research-LLC-Metals-Mining-Conference
    • Golden Minerals to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining ConferenceSeptember 27, 2012
      http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-Sept-27-12-Presents-Tumazos.pdfGOLDEN, Colo., September 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Golden Minerals Company (NYSE MKT: AUMN) (TSX: AUM), a growing mid-tier silver and gold producer with mining operations in Durango State, Mexico, announced today that it is participating in the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference being held at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42ndStreet in New York, October 2 through 3, 2012. At 12:00pm ET on October 2, 2012, Jeffrey Clevenger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Golden Minerals Company, will participate in a webcast company presentation where he will discuss the company’s current operations and future outlook.A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with the accompanying presentation materials, will be available at http://www.goldenminerals.com/. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast will be available at www.wsw.com or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm .
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources to Present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals and Mining Conference
      September 27, 2012http://trer.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Press_Release_Sept26_PresentatConference.pdfSIERRA BLANCA, TX, September 27, 2012– Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (OTCQB: TRER), a heavy rare earths exploration and development company, announced today that John Tumazos, non-executive chairman of the board, will present at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Metals & Mining Conference at the Westin New York Grand Central Hotel at 212 East 42nd Street in New York City on Wednesday, October 3rd at 4:00 PM ET. A link to the live webcast of the presentation, along with presentation materials, will be available at www.trer.com. If you are unable to listen to the live presentation, an archive will be available on the website for 90 days after the conference. A separate link to the webcast be available athttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir10/ or at http://www.veryindependentresearch.com/Conferences/fall_2012.htm
    • Aluminum price slide could cap smelter capacity
      American Metal Market
      August 28, 2012
      By Suzy Waitehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3080615/Home/Aluminum-price-slide-could-cap-smelter-capacity.html“The price will drop until companies cut output,” said John Tumazos, an analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, who said he expects “large output cuts” in the coming weeks.
    • Union contract with U.S. Steel expected
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      August 29, 2012
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/union-contract-with-us-steel-expected-650919/

      “I think the [Mittal] furnaces are going to be cold. Whether it’s a lockout or a strike, it doesn’t matter,” said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., analyst. “It is not tenable to have $75-and-change employment costs. Around the world, people build new mills and pay their workers $20 and less per hour.”

      Mr. Tumazos estimated those liabilities (health and life insurance benefits to retirees) could increase 20 percent by the end of the year — excluding any increases caused by higher health care costs — because of record low interest rates. The value of retiree pension and health care benefits is determined by interest rates. The lower the rate, the bigger the liability.

      Mr. Tumazos is not so sure (that ArcelorMittal would be unable to hold out for more than U.S. Steel gets). He believes ArcelorMittal chairman, president and CEO Lakshmi Mittal, who owns 40 percent of the steelmaker’s stock, “is completely serious” about demanding $28 an hour in concessions. Consequently, U.S. Steel will be at a disadvantage if Mittal receives more generous concessions, Mr. Tumazos said.
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO CompensationTRER – Form 8-K for Board Compensation and CEO Compensation.pdf
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources 8-K for Change in Directors or Principal Officerstrer8-k August 3, 2012 Change in Directors or Principal Officers.pdf
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources August 7, 2012 Conference Call TranscriptTRER Conf.-Call-Transcript-08.07.2012.pdf
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources Announces Newly Appointed Chief Executive Officer and New Board Members
      Source: August 6, 2012 Press Release from Texas Rare Earth Resources Website
      DENVER & SIERRA BLANCA, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (the “Company”) (OTCQX: TRER), a rare earths mineral exploration and development company, has announced the appointment of Mr. Daniel Gorski as its chief executive officer, as well as the addition of five new members to its board of directors: Mr. John C. Tumazos, CFA, as non-executive chairman, and Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, Mr. Cecil Wall, and Mr. James Wolfe as directors. Mr. Gorski commented, “I am pleased to have these very experienced and talented individuals joining the Texas Rare Earth Resources’ board. We are continuing to advance the Round Top project in Texas, and in the near term we plan to focus on metallurgy and proving out our ability to extract the valuable minerals in this deposit.”  Full Press Release: TRER_New-CEO-Board-Members_FINAL-PR.pdf
    • With Demand Sputtering, Miners Pause Big Projects
      August 3, 2012
      by Liam Pleven and John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444840104577553460712866028.html“About half of the institutional investors have stopped investing in mining and cyclical resources,” says John Tumazos, an investment adviser based in New Jersey.
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources, Form 8K for change in control dated July 24, 2012TRER – Form 8-K for Change in Control (7-24) v4.pdf
    • Texas Rare Earth Resources, Excerpt from July 16, 2012 10QOn June 12, 2012, three of our shareholders filed a Schedule 13D with the SEC to act together to explore their options concerning proposing and voting as a group on candidates for the Board of Directors of TRER, including potentially for the purpose of changing control of TRER.On July 5, 2012, the three shareholders who had filed a Schedule 13D on June 12, 2012, plus a group of other participants, including some additional shareholders of the Company, filed a preliminary Schedule 14A with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, regarding the solicitation of consents to four separate proposals to the shareholders: (i) repeal any provision of the Company’s bylaws in effect on that date the proposal is adopted that was not in the Amended and Restated Bylaws of Standard Silver Corporation (now known as Texas Rare Earth Resource Corporation) that became effective by written consent of the board of directors on September 8, 2008; (ii) remove without cause the following directors of the Company: James Graham, Graham Karklin, Gregory Martin and Marc LeVier; (iii) amended section 4.06 of the Amended and Restated Bylaws to provide that any vacancies on the board of directors resulting from the removal of directors by the shareholders of the Company pursuant to the solicited consents be filled exclusively by the shareholders of the Company and (iv) elect Dr. Philip Goodell, Dr. Nicholas Pingitore, John Tumazos, Cecil C. Wall and Dr. James R. Wolfe to serve as directors of the Company.
    • Analysts revise Alcoa forecasts downwardJuly 5, 2012
      American Metal Market
      Suzy Waitehttp://www.amm.com/Article/3056703/Home/Analysts-revise-Alcoa-forecasts-downward.htmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed. “(Unfortunately), the reality is that the low ingot price is causing the entire company to be discounted when flat-rolled and engineered products are having record years,” he said. “Those divisions are improving the value of the entire enterprise. And that’s all lost in the aluminum price.””The dollar being stronger does lower costs in Australia, Brazil, and Europe due to the exchange rate. (But) the change in the dollar is less significant than the price of aluminum,” Tumazos said. “The aluminum price has fallen more than the dollar has risen by a large margin.”
    • Tough on steel: Makers barely breaking even as shares fall, supplies swell
      June 9, 2012
      Trib Live Business
      By Kim Leonardhttp://triblive.com/business/1944638-74/steel-prices-makers-market-analysts-bradford-based-million-production-added“From a volume standpoint, the steel business is quite good,” said John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J.”A lot of capacity has been added in the U.S. — I estimate 31.7 million tons has been added, or is being added, since 2007,” while just two or three plants have closed, he said.Steel shipments could reach 97 million tons this year, compared to a peak of 109.5 million in 2006 and a low of 60.3 million in recession year 2009. “That suggests we’re on our way back,” Tumazos said.
    • Was Regent the heavy or the fall-guy for Barrick’s missteps?
      June 7, 2012
      Mineweb
      By Dorothy Kosichhttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=152812&sn=Detail&pid=102055In an e-mail Wednesday to Mineweb, however, analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research suggested “certainly the market valuation of ABX has discounted its outlook. ABX trades at about a 25% discount to estimated NPV, and most gold stocks trade at a 25% or more premium.”Tumazos told Mineweb, “Peter Munk was born November 8, 1927. God bless his longevity, but the appointment of such as distinguished co-chairman appears only prudent at age 84 ½.””The biggest challenge to Jamie Sokalsky’s team will be to prune or kill projects,” Tumazos advised. “Goldrush and the Turquoise Ridge open pit appear years better than Donlin Creek and Cerro Casale, and markets will rejoice if he puts the latter two projects on ice.”Tumazos suggests, “A reasonable press release might read, ‘Engineering and construction costs in today’s world are unreasonable, and we will not embark on any capital projects exceeding xxx billion dollars’ where perhaps the maximum outlays should be $2 billion ‘brownfield expansions near current sites'”.”Barrick’s share price will rally after investors are convinced its projects will earn over 15% after tax returns without undue risks,” Tumazos advised. “Its heavily discounted valuation reflects doubts that new mines will produce gold at state costs and, in effect, doubts that projects will earn suitable returns.”
    • RG Steel’s demise renews economic worriesJune 1, 2012
      Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
      By Len Boselovichttp://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/rg-steels-demise-renews-economic-worries-638426/“It’s wonderful the steel market is as good as it is without non-residential construction and high imports,” said John Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., metals analyst. “Autos, appliances and capital goods are steadily improving from the abysmal 2009.”Mr. Tumazos said U.S. steel producers have only themselves to blame for the recent rise in imports. He said they were too aggressive in raising prices, which opened the door to lower-priced imports.Mr. Tumazos anticipates some of RG’s equipment may run again, but not before a more robust economic recovery takes hold.
    • Xstrata Sets Vote on MergerMay 31, 2012
      Wall Street Journal
      By John W. Miller and Alex Macdonaldhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304821304577438730419542176.htmlThe compensation package is prompting new complaints. “The retention bonus is like a lump sum paid to the fox for raiding the chicken coop,” said John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investment adviser who owns 19,000 shares in Xstrata, a U.K.-listed miner of copper, coal and other products.
    • Thompson Creek Mine suffers wall slough
      May 21, 2012
      American Metal Market
      By Thorsten Schierhttp://www.amm.com/Article/3033587/Thompson-Creek-Mine-suffers-wall-slough.htmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said the event, which displaced about 300,000 tonnes of rock, will likely have a minor impact on the company’s operations. “There may be no loss of revenue but some cost inefficiencies related to the cleanup or trucks, shovels, etc. ‘standing by’ for several days awaiting the cleanup’s completion,” he (Tumazos) told AMM in an email, adding that stockpiled ore should be able to cover the loss of material.The molybdenum market is not expected to be affected due to a recent softening in demand. “Our hunch, based on spot prices and world stainless output, is that many roasters have more finished product than they can sell anyway,” Tumazos said.
    • Coal, the Hot Commodity for Deals
      March 5, 2012
      Wall Street Journal
      John W. Miller and Kris Maherhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577229123703258182.html?KEYWORDS=tumazos“Coking coal is scarce,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC. who expects the M&A appetite for coal to continue in 2012. “There are folks willing to buy [companies] because of bullish demand and China, and folks willing to sell because of fears of carbon taxes and new environmental regulations,” he said.
    • Alcoa gives positive aluminum outlook

      January 9, 2012
      Reuters
      By Alexandra Ulmerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-alcoa-idUSTRE80826Z20120110“It’s never good to see a loss, but some of this could have been worse,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research.
    • Chile miner Antofagasta seeks hands-on CEO
      March 16, 2012
      Reuters
      By Alexandra Ulmerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/chile-antofagasta-ceo-idUSL2E8EG5XG20120316“I assume Antofagasta recruits a hands-on engineer type,” said John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research.
    • Aleris roadshow signals nearing IPO
      April 3, 2012
      American Metal Market
      by Suzy Waite
      http://www.amm.com/Article/3006617/Aleris-roadshow-signals-nearing-IPO.htmlThe dropping price of aluminum, coupled with high global inventory levels, don’t make an IPO of an aluminum company an appealing prospect at the moment, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.”Maybe they’ll raise half as many shares as they intended at two-thirds of the price,” he (Tumazos) said. “If they get the deal done on schedule at the terms they promised, it would be a great achievement.”
    • Glencore Merger Could Take Two Years
      March 26, 2012
      The Wall Street Journal
      by John W. Millerhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577293760744266818.html?mod=WSJ_MetalsAndMining_leftHeadlines“It is absurd that Glencore maintains the demeanor that this could be a reasonable bid,” says John Tumazos, a New Jersey-based investment adviser who owns 19,000 shares in Xstrata.
    • Hecla to Present at Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in BostonMar 20, 2012 08:00:03 (ET)COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho, Mar 20, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Hecla Mining Company’s (HL, Trade ) Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James A. Sabala will speak at the Very Independent Research Metals and Mining Conference in Boston on March 27 at 8:00 a.m. (EDT). Mr. Sabala will present an overview of Hecla’s business strategy and its position as the largest North America-focused silver producer.A webcast of the presentation will be available at http://www.wsw.com/admin/spreadsheet/?vir9 as well as on Hecla’s web site at Investors Home page. The slides used by Mr. Sabala will also be available in the Investor Relations section of Hecla’s web site at www.hecla-mining.com , following his presentation.About HeclaEstablished in 1891, Hecla Mining Company has distinguished itself as the largest and lowest cash cost silver producer in the U.S. The company has two operating mines and exploration properties in four world-class silver mining districts in the U.S. and Mexico.
    • Ravenswood restart increasingly likely: analystswww.amm.com by Suzy Waite on March 2, 2012
      http://www.amm.com/Article/2988490/Ravenswood-restart-increasingly-likely-analysts.html“The economics of electricity are more attractive because of cheap natural gas prices,” according to John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC.However, the company needs more than a competitive power agreement-it also needs sustainably high aluminum prices, which Tumazos said might be a challenge until aluminum stocks at London Metal Exchange-listed warehouse-currently more than 5 million tonnes-come down”The power agreement to restart output, whether natural gas or coal, and the actual decision to restart output, are likely to depend on market conditions,” he (Tumazos) said. “The warehouses are the next hurdle, and my sense is that Century will wait until inventories fall.”
    • USS confirms Serbia sale, to record $400 M+ charge
      www.amm.com by Michael Cowden http://www.amm.com/pdf/AMMDaily01-31-12.pdf?LS=EMS609149U.S. Steel’s facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge.  “you could ship south Greece, but Greece is dead.””The only good thing about losing $400 million to $450 million is that the first digit wasn’t a six or a seven instead.”–John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.
    • Xstrata Investors May BalkWall Street Journal February 7, 2012 by Dana Cimilluca http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577207292473999200.html?mod=googlenews_wsjJohn Tumazos, an investment adviser specializing in mining and metals in Holmdel, N.J., owns 19,000 shares of Xstrata. Like many shareholders in the Switzerland-based firm, he sees uncounted value in Xstrata’s status as an actual “dig-up-rocks” miner with premium assets, which he and others contrast to Glencore’s smaller mining portfolio and reliance on global trading operations.Mr. Tumazos said he is holding out for an exchange ratio of 4-to-1. “This deal is like the Super Bowl, except it’s going to go more than 60 minutes.”
    • USS confirms Serbia sale, will record chargewww.AMM.com by Michael Cowdenhttp://www.amm.com/Article/2970097/USS-confirms-Serbia-sale-will-record-charge.htmlU.S. Steel’s facilities in Serbia are surrounded by steelmaking assets in the Czech and Slovak republics, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, said John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, noting that the location was a challenge. “You could ship south to Greece, but Greece is dead.”
    • US Steel mum on Serbia venturePittsburgh Post Gazette by Len Boselovic”I don’t think Serbian politicians are better metallurgists than U.S. Steel,” said John C. Tumazos, a Holmdel, N.J., industry analyst. “It appears the Serbian government had a hard time swallowing the business decision to reduce output in the current climate.”
    • Aluminum price dip may trigger buysAMM.com by Suzy Walte December 16, 2011″Take Century (Aluminum Co’s) Ravenswood (smelter in West Virginia).  This would not be the perfect week to restart it, or to conclude a new power agreement,” John Tumazos, principal at Very Independent Research LLC told AMM.
    • Quadra Sale suggest bearish outlook: analystsAMM.com by Chris Prentice December 15, 2011http://www.amm.com/Article/2950065/Quadra-sale-suggests-bearish-outlook-analysts.html?ArticleId=2950065Others agreed. John Tumazos, analyst at Holmdel, N.J.-based Very Independent Research LLC, said he was not surprised by the deal. “This is probably a good deal, and analysts just don’t know it (yet),” Tumazos told AMM. “The management (at Quadra) obviously don’t believe the copper price is going to be as high as analysts believe. Maybe they are a little nervous about Europe and the U.S.”
    • Aluminum suppliers have upper hand for ’12September 6, 2011 by Suzy White www.Amm.comVery Independent Research LLC’s John Tumazos is more optimistic. “We don’t think countries doing badly in the world matter,” he said, predicting that global auto sales will break records of 74 million units or more this year.
    • USW workers say no to Allegheny Ludlum pacthttp://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11208/1163098-28-2.stm
    • ATI announces its president to take over as chief executive
      By Joe Napsha, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011
      http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_725135.html
    • ATI Ceo Hassey to retire May 1
      By Len Boselovic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette March 1, 2011
      http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11060/1128718-28.stm
    • Deep Possibilities
      By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL.  Published Saturday February 26, 2011
      http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204395804576162552443416210.html?ru=yahoo&mod=BOL_hpp_latestticker
    • John Tumazos, a longtime metals analyst who operates John Tumazos Very Independent Research, notes Xstrata trades at a 10% discount to its coal and copper assets, leaving its fixed-asset development investments and other mineral groups essentially free. Tumazos recently raised his price target on Xstrata to $33 a share from $28, based on a discounted cash-flow model. That would represent a 50% increase from the $21.90 its shares recently fetched in New York. The shares trade primarily in London under the ticker XTA.
    • US steel exports forecast to rise on weak dollar, demand surge
      By Maria Guzzo, February 16, 2011John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., told AMM the December pullback ma y have been a factor of higher prices.”When domestic mills raise prices sky high, imports rise and exports fall,” he said. “So December appeared to be beginning to show that effect with a 100,000-ton increase in imports and a 100,000-ton decrease in exports.”
    • First Coverage Article
      PDF Download
    • Barron’s ArticlePDF Download
    • Instant view: Alcoa Q4 profits tops Wall Streethttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7095VZ20110110?pageNumber=2 January 10, 2011JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT OF VERYINDEPENDENT RESEARCH IN HOLMDEL, NEW JERSEY”What really knocked my socks off was when they said they’re projecting 12 percent demand growth for 2011. I don’t think there’s enough aluminum in the world…””In order to get a 12 percent growth rate in 2011, the world auto industry would have to be very strong, and each region of the world would have to be very strong. China would have to have enough electricity to make aluminum and use aluminum, and construction would need to recover in various regions: stay strong in China, and rebound in the U.S.””The (beverage) cans are never going to grow that much, unless somebody starts drinking really hard somewhere in the world.”
    • USS, Kobe commit $400 M to Pro-TecBy Corinna Petry www.AMM.com December 2, 2010John Tumazos, analyst of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said he expects U.S. Steel and Kobe to have, at the very least, “a strong assurance from an important customer that they will pay them more for high-quality heat treating. You don’t spend $400 million on a wink and a nod.”

    • Teck press release speaking on November 9, 2010 at JTVIR Metals ConferencePress Release
    • Klondex To Review Nevada High-Grade Gold Program at Tumazos Metals & Mining Conference Wednesday, November 10th at 2:20 P.M.
      Press Release
    • Letter to the Editor: SDCO outlay much ado about nothing
      www.AMM.com
      Hans Mueller July 26, 2010Brebach and John Tumazos (senior analyst at Very Independent Research LLC) have pointed out why John Correnti’s SDCO project is too insignificant to deserve congressional attention
    • Iron ore surcharge said failing to gain traction
      www.AMM.com
      By Scott Robertson July 16, 2010Analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research said that AK has a history of “tedious negotiations with GM. It has happened that way many times. U.S. Steel and (Arcelor)Mittal, for whatever reason, have not had that problem.”Tumazos believes that surcharges, first floated in stainless steel and then instituted by carbon steel mini-mills in April 2004 to deal with fluctuating scrap costs, eventually will be a thing of the past.”It is possible that for both good and bad reasons surcharges either confuse or eventually lose credibility with customers,” he said. “The concept of surcharges has been wearing itself out with customers.” He referred to remarks by an executive of Bloomfield, Colo.-based packaging company Ball Corp., who once referred to aluminum can makers as “that thin strip of meat” between aluminum companies and consumers.”Similarly, I believe the steel business is maybe a slightly thicker strip of meat between the three iron ore producers and the large auto companies like Toyota and GM,” Tumazos said. “If the ore and coal companies go to quarterly contracts and the mini-mills are adjusting monthly for scrap, the integrated mills will need to not have long-term fixed contracts like they had in the ’80s.”They’ll need to adjust quickly, whether they call it a surcharge or not, he said. “In fact, it might be better not to call it a surcharge, because such a word has worn out the patience of customers.”
    • Alcoa
      Reuters.com July 12, 2010
      John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC”The results were a little better than expected. Each of their four reporting segments did well. It appeared in particular that their capital spending and cost-reduction programs were working smoothly. None of the four segments dropped the ball.”
    • Letter to the Editor: SOCO will create American jobs, boost US tax revenues
      www.amm.com by John C Tumazos July 7, 2010full report
    • Cliffs buying met coal assets in West Virginiawww.amm.com by Maria Guzzo July 6, 2010John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said what Cliffs has doing in acquiring chromite ores in Canada is “brilliant,” but he is less excited about the INR purchase. “It’s a complicated set of variables,” he said, including a mix of met and thermal coal, the relatively small current coal production and the ratio of production to reserves. “But there may be more here th an meets the eye.”
    • Latrobe Specialty Steel said mulling IPO within next 2 yearswww.amm.com by Maria Guzzo June 24, 2010John Tumazos, partner at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said Latrobe is a smaller company than Carpenter Technology Corp., Haynes International Inc. or Allegheny Technologies Inc., all of which also produce specialty metals.”Trading near $36 (per share on Thursday), Carpenter Technologies is well below its peak 2007 valuation of $75 per share or mid-range 2006-07 values near $60 per share,” he said. “Probably Latrobe is worth something similarly less than peak values similar to Carpenter Technologies.”
    • Noranda slashes IPO share price on weak aluminum marketwww.amm.com by Anne Riley May 13, 2010The decision by Noranda’s majority owner, New York-based investment fund Apollo Management LP, to reduce the size of the offering may have done the stock a disservice, said John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC.”It doesn’t communicate vitality that they cut the price 44 percent,” he said. “It’s a sign of weakness and it suggests some discomfort, like they don’t have confidence in their electricity supplier or maybe they don’t like the bauxite and alumina business that Century (Aluminum Corp.) paid them $10 million to take. It’s not a good sign when your partner pays you $10 million to take (an asset). My hunch is that something in this transaction gives Apollo indigestion.”
    • Apollo unlikely to face antitrust hurdles
      www.amm.com by Anne Riley May 7, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that as long as Apollo isn’t Aleris’ primary owner, there shouldn’t be a problem. “A reasonable defense that Apollo could mount is that Apollo no longer controls Aleris after the bankruptcy filing, that Aleris is controlled by a bankruptcy judge or at least reports to one, and that the ownership of Aleris is transferred to the creditors. So the antitrust objection is not a strong one,” he said. “Apollo is part of the pie but they’re no longer the whole pie.”
    • Noranda public offering doubt as stock market tumbleswww.amm.com By Anne Riley May 7, 2010John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, agreed that the market is no longer prime for a Noranda IPO. “The financial markets are in a collapse led by cyclical stocks,” he said. “Let’s just say (the number of possible) investors are going down 3 percent a day because the stock market is going down 3 percent a day. I would expect that the majority of their appointments are getting canceled.”
    • Analysts: Slumping demand why Franklin paper mill closingwww.istockanalyst.com by Philip Walzer April 11 ,2010John Tumazos, who runs Very Independent Research in New Jersey, isn’t so sure.”I don’t think that ‘hope’ was a business alternative,” Tumazos said last week, “but I think there’s a choice.”
    • Apollo seen as main contender for Alcan rolled assets
      www.amm.com By David Brooks April 16, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, raised similar concerns. “I don’t think the business is particularly flush with cash to go out and make a big acquisition,” he previously told AMM.
    • Vale Inco strike could linger despite union pact, higher nickel priceswww.amm.com By Tom Jennemann April 9, 2010John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said the office staff labor deal won’t impact the position of production workers.
    • Alcoa to demolish two idled aluminum smelters in US
      www.amm.com By Anne Riley April 6, 2010″Electricity and fuel are cyclical, so when the (smelters) were idled the company may have held out a hope that a better opportunity could occur to bring them back,” according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “I would imagine .?.?. that they have been hoping that circumstances would change, which hasn’t transpired.”
    • Novelis is free to enter aerospace, but will it?
      www.amm.com By Anne Riley March 8, 2010″There have been over-expansions,” John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said.
    • SSAB scales down plant for Alabama
      www.amm.com By Corinna Petry February 11, 2010John Tumazos, president of Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the classic application for QT plate is to transmit natural gas from Alaska and Canada to the lower 48 states.”Because of the natural gas surplus in the U.S. and the huge reserves found in (oil shale fields in) West Virginia, New York, Penn sylvania, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, there is a chance that these (trans-Canadian) pipelines don’t get built or not as quickly,” he said. In addition, electricity use in the United States last year “was 4.7 percent less than in 2007, so the use of natural gas and coal for power generation has diminished.”
    • Instant View: Alcoa reports narrower loss
      www.reuters.com Monday Jan 11, 2010
      http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60A54O20100111

      JOHN TUMAZOS, PRESIDENT, VERYINDEPENDENTRESEARCH.COM”It was a bit surprising that they broke even excluding the 28-cent charges. They say they had special charges, and if you take that out they nearly broke even including discontinued operations.”It appears that costs rose faster than prices. Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going for them.”
    • Update 3- Alcoa misses street estimate shares fallMonday Jan 11, 2010 by Steve James www.reuters.com http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1115520120100112

      “It appears that costs rose faster than prices,” said John Tumazos, president of veryindependentresearch.com.”Or that some of the cost gains in the first half of 2009 were due to exogenous factors like currency shifts, lower energy prices, lower metal prices and now some of those exogenous factors are going against them while the metal price is going (up) for them.
    • Thompson Creek raises cost estimates for EndakoAMM.com by Anne Riley December 7, 2009

      John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said it was unlikely that Sojitz would pull out of the project.”Sojitz just contributed C$180 million ($170.9 million) to buy 25 percent of the Gibraltar mine from Taseko Mines (Ltd.), so I’m assuming that Sojitz knows the Endako expansion was contemplated and is prepared for it. I don’t think Sojitz is a risk,” he said. Sojitz bought the stake in the Gibraltar copper and molybdenum mine last week
    • Century to restart construction of Iceland smelter
      AMM.com November 19, 2009NEW YORK — Century Aluminum Co. is set to restart construction at its greenfield smelter in Helguvik, Iceland, in the spring of 2010 and is targeting first production by 2012, a top executive said.Work at the Helguvik smelter site was effectively put on hold late last year due to tightening credit markets, low aluminum prices and the collapse of the Icelandic economy. Conditions in the credit and aluminum markets have since improved and Century is prepared to proceed with full-scale construction, Mike Bless, chief financial officer, said at a Metals and Mining investor conference in New York hosted by Knight Capital Group Inc. and John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, according to a Webcast of the event.Monterey, Calif.-based Century plans to build the smelter in four phases of 90,000 tonnes each, for a final annual capacity of 360,000 tonnes. The first phase will cost about $600 million, according to Bless.
    • Aluminum price rally may drive Century to restart RavenswoodAMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009

      Independent analyst John Tumazos said he found the ta lk of a Ravenswood restart surprising. “I would have thought it more logical to restart the idled line at Hawesville (Ky.) if there were to be a first step at Century,” he said.Although today’s lower energy input prices and possible union concessions could mean an improvement in Ravenswood’s costs, the plant might bring in the most money for Century if it were to be sold, Tumazos said.”The Ravenswood plant is a much more formidable asset empty and cold without a work force. If they let it sit five years and sold it to some new company with no obligation to a labor contract and start fresh, it would in my opinion be the fullest value of the asset,” he said, estimating that the plant, “sold cold,” could bring in some $300 million.
    • Noranda profitable as output climbsAMM.com by Anne Riley October 26, 2009Another challenge in store for Noranda is the profusion of new aluminum capacity expected to enter the global market next year, sources said. According to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, the world could see some 10 percent more smelter output, or an increase of some 1.5 million tonnes, in 2010, which could put some strain on higher-cost Western producers.”If you get subs tantial restarts in the U.S. and Europe, where production has been reduced, then you need a higher threshold, more than 10-percent demand growth, to keep inventories even, just even,” Tumazos said.
    • Ohio politician hints at interest in some Severstal NA plantsAMM.com by Scott Robertson October 23, 2009Independent analyst John Tumazos is one who believes there is potential in Severstal’s North American operations, perhaps with the conversion of some facilities into merchant pig iron producers.In a recent research note, he characterized reports by AMM and others claiming “sales book” offers for the Russian steelmaker’s five North American mills as “sensational,” adding that “some commentary appears to exaggerate (the) potential demise” of Severstal.”We believe Severstal has numerous fine financing alternatives should the current recession grow worse, including (a) selling more public common stock in the Severstal parent, (b) an IPO (initial public offering) of Severstal Resources, (c) an IPO of Severstal North America, (d) selected asset sales or (e) a hybrid format of the four U.S. integrated plants between sheet and merchant pig iron strategies,” Tumazos said, estimating that Severstal’s 8 million tons of pig iron capacity, 4 million tons of coatings capacity, its Columbus, Miss., electric furnace mill and coal, coke and corrugating are worth $5 billion.
    • Despite Positive results Alcoa faces challengesAMM.com by Anne Riley 10/8/2009

      John Tumazos an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, also pointed to currency fluctuations as a key factor for Alcoa. “Alcoa’s break-even point appeared to rise 3 to 5 cents a pound in the third quarter due to the appreciation of their production cost currencies,” he said. “I think Alcoa is doing everything diligent and wonderful but they can’t control the Australian dollar,” which has shot up recently against the greenback.
    • What Stimulus?American Metal Market by Maria Guzzo October 2009John Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ, was even less optimistic that ARRA will benefit the steal industry. “Any expectation of a substantial impact on particular steel shapes or products probably won’t be fulfilled,” he said. “I think most of these initiatives are going to get crowded out by various social welfare programs and the need to pay schoolteachers, policemen, firemen, and government officials,” Tumazos said.
    • Metals complex holds aluminum backAMM.com by Anne Riley September 29, 2009

      “There was never a shortage of aluminum this decade,” said John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC. “There always was a large amount in LME warehouses, where copper, nickel, lead and zinc almost fell to zero.”Granted, some of that metal is locked up in financing deals-as much as 90 percent, according to some accounts-but regardless, “the aluminum exists,” Tumazos said. “It surprises me that people are so cavalier to how quickly 5 million tonnes will disappear.”
    • Always on the MendAmerican Metal Market August/September 2009 issue byTom JennemannJohn Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLc, told AMM that extruders likely will have only about two thirds of the business they had before the industry’s downturn.
    • From the Associated Press July 8, 2009John Tumazos, an industry analyst, said of Alcoa’s latest results:  “They did good.”The company lost considerably less money on ventures in China and Russia than in the past, and it gathered contributions from operations in Iceland and Norway, he said.  Alcoa should have a positive cash flow in the third quarter, Tumazos added.
    • TK may cancel plans to melt stainless in Ala.www.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo July 8, 2009″The latter case would be great news for ATI, AK or Acerinox (NAS),” John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J., said. “In this scenario, ThyssenKrupp would be content to operate Mexinox in San Luis Potosi (Mexico) as a standalone unit, accepting stainless hot-rolled coil from Europe, without any U.S. link.”
    • Steelmakers face battle as antitrust suit proceedswww.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo June 16, 2009Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos also expects the steel litigation to take years, noting that the steel case resembles one in the container board industry where similar coincidental production cuts were made
    • Steel output rise sign of life, but will it last?
      www.AMM.com by Scott Robertson June 12, 2009John Tumazos, analyst at Independent Research LLC, said several factors appear to be in play in pushing utilization rates higher. He cited the recent upward move in crude oil prices to again breach $70 per barrel, a move that should spark increased oil drilling activity. And steel inventories in general have been reduced over the past several months, leading service center customers to increase orders slightly in recent weeks, he said.
    • US aluminum output dips further in May

      www.AMM.com by June 10, 2009But U.S. aluminum output still has further to fall, according to analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC. “A 37-percent cut in U.S. aluminum output is a deep, deep cut, but autos and housing are down even more. They’re going to have to cut further unless all of a sudden auto sales and housing figures rebound,” he said, noting that such a turnaround is quite unlikely in the near-term.
    • Cliff’s buffered from pellet tag drop: analystswww.AMM.com by Mick Bowen June 10, 2009

      John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, pointed out the two steel markets that primarily use pellets-North America and Europe-are also the two markets where output was hardest hit by the economic crisis. In the United States, for exampl e, the capability utilization rate averaged 47.1 percent last week compared with 91.1 percent in the corresponding week last year, according to numbers from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AMM, June 10).
    • Lower demand imperils domestic steelmakers: Analysts predict permanent closure of some U.S. millshttp://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09156/975244-28.stm The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Len Boselovic June 5, 2009Analyst John C. Tumazos, of Very Independent Research in Holmdel, N.J., forecasts U.S. mills will ship 57 million tons this year, down from 98 million last year and 106 million in 2007.
    • China Probes Imports of U.S. Steelhttp://online.wsj.com/search?KEYWORDS=Tumazos&mod=DNH_S By Kris Maher June 2, 2009″I’m assuming that the prices into China were new sales at spot prices that were escalating,” said John Tumazos, a metals analyst who heads Very Independent Research LLC.
    • “Buy American” among factors limiting importswww.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 29, 2009

      “There is very low domestic demand for steel. Second, when the demand transitions to stimulus programs, they will be ‘Buy America’ (orders) and not imported. Third, domestic prices have been falling,” independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said. “I believe that high domestic steel prices cause imports and, as domestic mill operating rates remained in the low 40 (percent range), prices fell enough to discourage imports.”
    • Cliffs’ iron ore contract prices seen falling 10%AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 29, 2009According to John Tumazos, a steel analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, the structure of the local steel market and its recent woes mean the international negoti ations will have little direct impact on North America.
    • US aluminum demand still feeling for bottom
      www.AMM.com by Tom Jennemann May 12, 2009John Tumazos, an analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, said that aluminum demand is about the same as it was last month. “The packaging portion of the aluminum market is stable but the auto market was down 34 percent in April and construction activity is poor,” Tumazos said. “Also, virtually no money has flowed from the federal programs. It’s sad that the exchange inventories rise 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes every day. Aluminum companies need to cut production more, unfortunately.”
    • Credit pains to linger; plan well, metals toldwww.AMM.com by Maria Guzzo May 8, 2009

      Independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said he was impressed that U.S. Steel raised twice as much as originally intended, and they did it in 24 hours.”Commercial banks are still sucking their thumbs, but stock market money is coming off the sidelines,” he said. “Money can be obtained from public or private stock and bond sales. But the commercial lending area from banks is still difficult.”
    • Analysts applaud Nyrstar’s Tenn. buy
      AMM.com by Mick Bowen May 6, 2009
    • Steel distributor Certified set to go solar at N.J. plantwww.AMM.com by Corinna Petry May 5, 2009
    • ISRI CONVENTION: Commodities boom masked aluminum glut, Tumazos saysAMM.com by Michael MArley May 1, 2009Tumazos, of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, criticized aluminum producers outside of China, saying they produced more metal than Western markets needed. “The aluminum producers misjudged demand and built capacity to serve phantom buyers,” he said.
    • ArcelorMittal tries EU price freeze, expects stable May

      Platts Steel Markets Daily by Julien Hall with Joe Innace in New York April 16, 2009“This is humorous,” said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research. “A supplier ‘price freeze’ in a very strong market, such as one to three years ago, is enforceable as it would be a form of ‘self restraint,’ he wrote in an e-mail to Platts.
      “A supplier ‘price freeze’ with world steel output down about 23%, or nearly 50% outside China, is a little bit like trying to stop the flow of Niagara Falls,” he quipped.
    • Aluminum market continues to falter
      amm.com  by Tom Jennemann April 14, 2009But the month-on-month increase is somewhat deceptive as it’s based on a calendar month and isn’t adjusted for the actual number of working days. It is also the normal seasonal pattern for demand to improve sequentially as winter ends, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC.
    • Steel import, export price indicies dropAmm.com by Corinna Petry April 9, 2009″Imports and exports of everything, not just steel, are falling worldwide because there is less need for trade in a recession as countries are more self reliant and less willing to buy,” said independent metals industry analyst John Tumazos. “High prices cause imports, (but domestic steel prices have fallen to around $400 per ton for many products) so now steel imports are relatively low-1.5 million tons per month or less-because domestic producers have cut prices.”
    • Alcoa reports $497M loss in 1Q on lower pricesAssociated Press April 7, 2009 by Daniel Lovering http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EARNS_ALCOA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULTAnalysts point to the excess supplies of aluminum worldwide and say further production cuts are needed to match falling orders. Industry analyst John Tumazos said the actual market decline will be twice as much as Alcoa projected.
    • 6 months after USW deal, steel is in a slumpPittsburgh Post-Gazette by Leo Boselovic http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09088/958881-435.stm
    • Alcoa unveils new cuts, changes margin policyAmerican Metal market by tom Jenneman Mar 16, 2009 http://amm.com/2009-03-16__17-16-36.html

      “When aluminum prices were higher and margins big, there may have been a tendancy to provide a lot of services free or, in this case, provide credit or hedging support,” said analyst John  Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC.
    • Aluminum sheet, plate shipments inch higherAmerican Metal market by Tom Jennemann March 3, 2009

      That optimism wasn’t shared by analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLC, who said that it would be premature to assume that a month-on-month uptick in January’s sheet and plate shipments signals a bottom for aluminum demand.
    • DLA seeks better steel ‘Warstopper’ responseAmerican Metal Market by Mick Bowen March 9, 2009John Tumazos, analyst with Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said the DLA letter nay be nothing out of the ordinary.  “I don’t think they’ve run out of anything,” he said.  “None of the basic large volume industrial materials are in low supply and we have the prices to show that’s true.”
    • USS’ Minntac Mine set for hit, III. cuts growAmerican Metal Market by Mick Bowen

      “It’s an unfortunate and natural response to end markets,” independent steel analyst John Tumazos said, citing a 50-percent drop in car manufacturing and an 80-percent fall in new housing starts, among other factors.
    • Parts makers may not suffer full impact of auto cutbacksAmerican metal Market by Anne Riley http://www.amm.com/2009-02-18__18-04-34.html

      “If it’s a transplant vehicle, most of the steel and components will be American.  we’re really talking about how the pie is divided and how much of the sales the Big Three lose,” independent steel industry analyst John Tumazos said.
    • Aluminum picks up old script with talk of MoUAmerican Metal Market By Tom Jennemann http://www.amm.com/2009-02-05__16-59-35.html

      “The MoU approach may be the only solution to the aluminum mess,” said analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research, LLC.  “It solved the problem 15 years ago and the inventories on commodity exchanges are 700,000 tonnes higher today than they were at the peak in 1994, when you factor in (the) Shanghai (futures exchange) and Comex (division of the New York Mercantile exchange)”
    • AMM State of Steel ’09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrexhttp://www.galwayresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=337122
    • AMM State of Steel ’09: Premium metalics prices up from the bottom: Midrex

      American Metal Market  by  Michael Bowen http://www.amm.com/2009-01-26__14-22-05.htmlAnalyst John Tumazos from Very Independent Research, LLC said blast furnace operators would turn to high grade iron ore in a market currently characterized by lower prices and higher surpluses. “The usage per ton will fall as the grade improves,” he said, adding that shipping less ore translates into lower freight costs, while using higher-grade ore lowers coal and coke use and improves blast furnace productivity.
    • Freeport-McMoran results top view, shares upReuters by  Steve James http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/reuters/MTFH75123_2009-01-26_16-12-03_N26370152.htm“When purchase accounting values are written off they never get written back,” said independent metals analyst John Tumazos. “So, what they wrote off today will never come back.”
    • Thompson Creek may be mulling buy: analystsAmerican Metal Market by  Mick Bowen http://amm.com/2008-12-05__15-30-54.htmlIndependent analyst John Tumazos said there was a chance Thompson Creek could use cash on hand to acquire any one of a half dozen molybdenum projects, but added it was just as likely the company hold on to it in case the price of molybdenum got worse. Molybdenum oide is currently selling for $9 to 410 a pound, while it averaged $30 a pound in 2007 and $33 a pound in the first nine months of this year.
    • Alcoa Searches for Fresh Start in Troubled MarketWall Street Journal Wed. December 3, 2008 page B4.  by Robert Guy MathewsJohn Tumazos an analyst with Very Independent Research, said the company has few good options as its influence in the commodity world is nowhere as sure as it once was.  “They need to idle more smelters than they have cut,” he said.
    • (BN) Freeport Cuts Molybdenum Output on `Sharp’ Price DropBy Stewart Bailey
    • Smaller nickel miners facing an uphill road
      By Michael Cowden October 28, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-28__18-37-45.html Independent analyst John Tumazos also doubted there would be a wave of consolidation, but said smaller producers could become insolvent and eventually fail.  “Nobody in the nickel business makes money at $4.50 a pound,” he said.
    • Nickel premiums steady despite lullBy Michael Cowden October 24, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-10-24__17-15-45.htmlIndependent mining analyst John Tumazos said current prices don’t justify energy and chipping costs in many cases.  however, LME stockpiles amount to less than 3 percent of world usage, he pointed out, adding that many stainless steelmakers have been destocking since the second half of 2006.
    • NY group is kicking tires at former McLouth SteelBy Michael Cowden October 16, 2008  http://amm.com/2008-10-16__17-44-48.htmlStill, despite all the economic gloom and doom, the site’s infrastructure and potentially generous government incentives could make restarting the former mill a good idea, independent industry analyst  John Tumazos said.
    • Delay in Rio asset sale to bolster BHP bidBy Tom Jennemann October 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-15__18-31-08.html

      But not everyone sees the divestment delay as a negative for the Anglo-Australian mining giant.  “The drop in oil prices almost cuts resin feedstock costs in half.  Whatever the packaging business was worth on July 3 as oil peaked, it’s probably worth 25 percent more today because their profit margins should be much larger because the squeezes are alleviated,” said independent metals analyst John tumazos.  “Delaying the sale because of finanical markets could be clever and a sign of strength and not weakness, particularly as it relates to the packaging (unit).”
    • Analysts mixed on financial crisis impact on steel M&AsBy Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-10-07__10-38-35.html

      Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  “Steelmakers just got kicked out of ‘paradise’,” he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
    • Surma, Mital optimistic on M&As; investors notBy Maria Guzzo October 7, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-07__16-48-14.xml

      Independent steel analyst John Tumazos also is pessimistic about more mergers and acquisitions occurring anytime soon.  “Steelmakers just got kicked out of ‘paradise’,” he said, noting that acquisitions will be a lower priority going forward.
    • Output cuts widen as mills react to slowdownBy Scott Robertson October 3, 2008 http://www.amm.com/stories/story.asp?file=/2008-10-03__16-53-34.xml

      The lack of steel orders is a cause for concern among mills as they eye production cuts, according to John Tumazos, principal for Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
    • SDI mulling flat-roll mill, may target auto: BusseBy Scott Robertson September 15, 2008 http://www.amm.com/2008-09-15__17-41-50.html

      “SDI earns slightly better margins and returns than its competitors,” John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said.  “there is always room for the best player,” he added.
    • Labor deal “expensive” for U.S. SteelBy Scott Robertson August 25, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-25__19-29-35.html

      John Tumazos analyst at Very Independent Research, Holmdel, N.J. said investors may be calculating that growth in other steel production is about to slow due to a drop in global demand.  there is some evidence that tightness in the market for steelmaking could be easing, he said.
    • USW-ArcelorMittal talks halt; strike said unlikelyBy Maria Guzzo Aug 11, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-11__19-49-46.htmlThe cost of steel these days could also impact market movements, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.
    • SeverCorr shift in scrap mix a “natural” processBy Michael Cowden August 6, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-08-06__19-14-33.html

      No. 1 bundles and  No. 1 busheling prices currently stand at a premium to other grades of steel scrap in the United States and steel mills could be using other grades to avoid the high tags, according to John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
    • ArcelorMittal said eyeing Alpha bid trumping CliffsBy Maria Guzzo August 1, 2008 http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-08-01__21-00-28.xml

      “ArcelorMittal has expressed a goal to be more self-sufficient in metallurgical coal and iron ore,” John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.  “It may be that Mittal considers Alpha to be much more attractive than the typical met coal opportunity around the globe.
    • Teck’s $13.8B deal to buy Fording Feeds M&A feverBy Maria Guzzo July 29, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-29__19-35-57.htmlSteelmakers worldwide will be largely unaffected because the existing combination of ownership of supply and management will be maintained, John Tumazos, analyst at Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said.
    • Cliffs risks going from hunter to buyout targetBy Maria Guzzo July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/stories.asp?file=/2008-07-25__20-24-08.xmlAnalyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J. said he, too, understands Harbinger’s actions.  “Shareholders own pieces of paper and sometimes they just assume the piece of paper is going to be the same,” he said.  “It’s always possible investors at Harbinger thought they were buying mostly into iron ore and weren’t expecting $10 billion worth of coal.”
    • Mine start-ups might be least of nickel’s worriesBy Darcy Keith July 25, 2008 American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-07-25__20-25-14.html“There are a number of places around the world where the existing production should not be taken for granted,” said analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research,  LLC.
    • BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=attGHLC37ww8download
    • Correnti Departs in Severcorr Reshuffle
      Febuary 2008 edition of American Metal marketsteel industry analyst John Tumazos said the move raised several questions.  “There’s more that we don’t know than we do know,” he said.  “We would like to think that everyone would be fairly rewarded.”
    • John Tumazos interview with The Gold Report transcriptDownload Document
    • HudBay dives into nickel via Skye buyBy Darcy Keith June 24, 2008
      http://amm.com/2008-06-24__21-39-44.htmlFenix contains proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.63-percent nickel, which, according to John Tumazos of Very independent Research, LLC, represents two to three years of world consumption.  “The deposit is massive. I think the offer is low and is favorable to HudBay and a little light to Skye.?Misquote:  “proven and probable reserves of 41.4 million”
      Correction: 11 billion lb of ni resources or 5 mmt contained NI resources.
    • Esmark smells profit, says Severstal offer falls short
      By Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-12__19-42-34.htmlThe primary concern of Esmark’s board should be finding the best deal for shareholders and making sure “the $17 or $19 check clears,” analyst John Tumazos of Very Independent Research LLc, Holmdel, N.J. said.
    • Vale sparks takeover talk with $15B Share offering
      By Roberta Pregnaca, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-10__19-33-15.htmlAlcoa has more downstream exposure and might not be such a good fit with Vale’s core competence, according to analyst John Tumazos, owner of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
    • Galway seeks steel partner for N.M. mineBy Sean Barry, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-06-05__19-58-37.html“It’s a big-time discovery and my job is to figure out the best way to maximize the value of this project,” Tumazos said.  “we’re looking at possibly bringing in a steel company as a partner similar to what General Moly Inc. has done.  We’re also looking at bringing in financial partners.”
    • Severstal’s Esmark bid might be hard to beatBy Scott Robertson, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-05-30__20-03-28.html

      “If Franklin is backing Severstal, then it’s a done deal,” said John Tumazos, analyst at john Tumazos Very Independent Research, Holmdel N.J.  “Presumably, Franklin is a knowledgeable shareholder as a large institution.  If they are backing Severstal that should get it done.”
    • GM truck, SUV cutbacks could trickle upstreamBy Michael Cowden, American Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-04-29__20-03-26.html

      The real problem for the steel industry is not declining auto sales, but supply constraints of raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, according to john Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC Holmdel, NJ.
    • Esmark deal pales next to old W-P bid
      By Scott Paterson, American Metal market http://amm.com/com/2008-05-01__15-47-28.html“The market got better, but (Wheeling-Pittsburgh’s) operations got worse,” analyst John Tumazos said. “The problem with comparing this offer to CSN’s is that things change over time.  Wheeling-Pitt installed the electric-arc furnace (at Mingo Junction, Ohio) and it obviously is not working properly based on their financial numbers.  But even forgetting those numbers, it’s better to sell early. CSN would have brought in slabs that would have bypassed those molten steel operations.”
    • NC Legal Blog
      http://womblencappellate.blogspot.com/2008/04/coa-holds-that-stock-analysts-report.html
    • Nucor loses appeal in libel suitgsrg – nucor loses appeal vs Tumazos 4-24-08.pdf
    • Nucor Loses Bid to Reinstate Libel Lawsuit Against Prudential
      by Linda Sandler (Bloomberg) Full Story
    • Jury set in Nucor secrets case; libel suit shot down
      American Metal market htp://amm.com/2008-04-24__19-15-45.html
    • ATI Stock Climbs on Rumors about takeover by U.S. SteelAmerican Metal Market, by Maria Guzzo: April 7, 2008 http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-04-07__18-51-50.xmlJohn Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel N.J. said he did not see how either company would benefit from such a combination.  He said he didn’t believe U.S. Steel would but ATI as U.S. Steel is seeking “bolt-on” extensions with large synergies to existing U.S. iron ore, sheet, and tube or East European sheet units.
    • Skye resources to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008
      2008-03-25 JTVIR Announcement.pdf
    • Duluth Metals to present at JTVIR Metals Conference March 27, 2008
      http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp
    • Taseko Mines to present at JTVIR Metals Conference
      http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/newsreleases.asp?reportid=292166
    • Dofasco sues for iron ore mine
      By Naomi Powell The Hamilton Spectator March 14, 2008 page A16Dofasco.doc
    • Tumazos Sees Global Economic `Boom’ on Low Rates
      Mar. 11 (Bloomberg) — John Tumazos, founder of Very Independent Research LLC, spoke yesterday with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene from Holmdel, New Jersey, about commodity prices, the gold market and the global economy.weblink
    • Interview with John Tumazoshtttp://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir/video.html
    • Hot-roll band prices surge to new highs: BenchmarkerAmerican metal Market by Maria Guzzo http://amm.com/2008-02-13__19-25-29.html

      John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., said the price hikes “reflect December/ January scrap cost increases, which mills are now trying to recover with a time lag after the fact.”
    • Century AluminumSunday (Charleston, WV) Gazette-Mail Sunday Feb 3, 2008 “Century has to face the numbers” By George HohmanChief Operating Officer Wayne Hale said in September that alumina accounts for 37 percent of Ravenswood’s costs; electricity, 26 percent; labor, 16 percent; carbon, 8 percent; and other raw materials, 12 percent.  John tumazos, an independent analyst, said Ravenswood’s expenses are in the ballpark when compared to others.
    • U.S. Steel to raise production at Stelco facilities
      American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-02-04__15-44-12.html By Michael CowdenOne industry analyst said the depreciating dollar was a concern.  It is unclear whether U.S. Steel will earn suitable returns from Stelco unless exchange rates change, according to John C. Tumazos, head of John Tumazos Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.
    • SSAB said in talks to divest Ipsco’s tubular operationsAmerican Metal Market by Michael Cowden http://amm.com/wrappers/story.asp?file=/2008-02-04__20-42-29.xml Feb 4, 2008.”The price SSAB paid was very generous,” said John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  And SSAB might be “very Happy” to exit a product line or two in order to reduce debt and capital employed, especially in the face of turmoil in the credit markets, he said.
    • Alcoa awaits BHP decision as Rio offer deadline looms
      American Metal Market by Mathew Lerner http://amm.com/2008-02-05__19-02-19.html Feb 5, 2008Alcoa could be taking a two-track approach, according to John C. Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LC, Holmdel, NJ.  Alcoa owns only 9 percent of the stake it purchased with Chinalco, meaning it directly controls no more than 1 percent of Rio stock.  Alcoa might swap that stake for a specific asset or flip it later at a profit, he said.
    • USS reportedly eyeing Bulgaria mill acquisitionAmerican Metal Market http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-15-40.html By Maria Guzzo”It makes sense to integrate it with Belgrade and Kosice into their system.  Their advantage is defined as how efficient they could make them all.” said John Tumazos, head of Very independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J., who added that although he had heard nothing about the negotiations, such a purchase could be beneficial to the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.
    • Hot-roll band on strong drive in US, world export markets
      American Metal Markets http://amm.com/2008-01-30__20-12-53.html By Michael Cowden”Currency fluctuations could be partially accountable for the difference between U.S. and Chinese prices, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken while the Chinese Yuan strengthens, said John Tumazos, analyst at John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, N.J.  And, of course, low customer inventories are encouraging North American steelmakers to increase domestic market prices, he added.Tumazos speculated that world export prices might be rising as U.S. mills divert supplies away from export markets to long-standing distributor customers- a move that might at first glance appear counterintuitive, given strong prices abroad.  “You can sell to the person you get the highest bid from, or you can go out and serve the customer who orders from every month,” he said.
    • Duluth Complex projects move forward
      Article from The Northern Miner, Volume 93 Number 47, Jan 14-20, 2008″In a third-quarter conference call, Teck chief executive Don Lindsay told research analyst John Tumazos that there was “nothing material to report” on Mesaba, and that there “won’t be for some time.””
    • Alcoa’s Stint in the Minor Leagues
      Tuesday January 29, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page C1By 2015, the Middle East smelters could produce aluminum 25% cheaper than Alcoa does now, says John Tumazos, who runs a metals-research concern called Very Independent Research.  “It will be very difficult for Alcoa to compete,” he says.
    • Steel mat feel minimal recession fallout
      Article from American Metal Market January 22, 2008 http://amm.com/2008-01-22__19-22-39.html“The outlook for metal industries in general remains strong, according to John Tumazos, founder of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC, Holmdel, NJ.  Companies such as U.S. Steel and Nucor could even use the market downturn as an opportunity to buy back shares at bargain prices.”
    • Anglo American May Buy Brazil Projects
      Friday January 18, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal page 9″It is a coup that Anglo American is doing this deal,” said John Tumazos, an analyst with Very Independent Research, LLC.  “All the iron-ore producers of the world envy Vale’s spectacular resources in Brazil and would like to have something like it”  He said the price is justified, given the entry into a rich market
    • SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs.Article from American Metals Markets.  SeverCorr squeeze-out aimed at four top execs