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ALCOA (AA $10.76, rating NEUTRAL PRICE TARGET cut to $13 from $15/share) LOWER LME ALUMINUM PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER EARNINGS; SLIGHT ESTIMATED ALUMINUM COST REDUCTIONS PARTIALLY OFFSET; $100 MILLION IN ESTIMATED WRITEDOWNS FOR BOTH 2012 and 2013    2/3/2012

GLENCORE (GLNCF $7.74, price target raised to $12 from $5) RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT BASED ON “STEALING” XSTRATA IN “MERGER OF EQUALS;” XSTRATA (XSRAF $20.05) MAINTAINED AT OVERWEIGHT AT SAME PRICE TARGET OF $31   2/4/2012

NEWMONT MINING (NEM $60.89, Rated Neutral; price target $65) EXPECTED WRITE DOWN OF HOPE BAY; NPV ANALYSIS OF LONG CANYON SHOWS IT WAS A SOUND INVESTMENT WITH NO WRITEDOWN RISKS 2/7/2012

“MODERATE” WORLD VOLUME GAINS BETWEEN NIL AND 5% IN 2012 MAY BE ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN COPPER OR NICKEL IN 2012, BUT PROBABLY NOT ALUMINUM, LEAD, ZINC, STEEL, IRON ORE, MET COAL, MOLY, ETC 2/7/2012

METALS INDUSTRIES – – HIGHLIGHTS OF XSTRATA, BHP BILLITON AND ARCELORMITTAL STEEL FEBRUARY 7TH PRESS RELEASES IN QUICK HIGHLIGHT FORM 2/7/2012

VALE (VALE $26.42, rated Overweight price target Lowered to $32 from $41) LOWER IRON ORE PRODUCTION ESTIMATES and NEAR TERM PRICES LEAD TO LOWER EARNINGS and CASH GENERATION; ESTIMATED $1.25 BILLION IMPAIRMENT CHARGE RELATED TO SHIPPING FLEET 2/9/2012

GOLDCORP (GG $47.16, Rating reduced to Underweight from Neutral) CERRO NEGRO NEGATIVE NPV SHOWS GOLDCORP OVERPAID ON CONSERVATIVE METRICS; EL MORRO NEGATIVE NPV IMPLIES GOLDCORP SHOULD NOT BUILD THE PROJECT, GG BETTER OF IF ABX WINS EL MORRO LAWSUIT, NEW …

GOLDCORP (GG $47.16, Rating reduced to Underweight from Neutral) CERRO NEGRO NEGATIVE NPV SHOWS GOLDCORP OVERPAID ON CONSERVATIVE METRICS; EL MORRO NEGATIVE NPV IMPLIES GOLDCORP SHOULD NOT BUILD THE PROJECT, GG BETTER OF IF ABX WINS EL MORRO LAWSUIT, NEW GOLD PAYOUT MINIMAL; PRICE TARGET CUT TO $32 FROM 2/9/2012 Read more »

METALS INDUSTRIES – -UNDERVALUATION OF LARGE MINING COMPANIES ILLUSTRATED IN POTENTIAL VALUES IF ROYALTIES SOLD AT PREMIUMS TO NPV ON LARGE UNDERLYING MINES 2/9/2012

GOLD INDUSTRY – VARYING IMPAIRMENT, VALUATION AND RATE OF RETURN METRICS FOR MAJOR GOLD COMPANIES 2/9/2012

BHP BILLITON (BHP $79.62, rating OVERWEIGHT; Price Target lowered to $124 from $137) WEAK DECEMBER HALF RESULTS CAUSE US TO LOWER FISCAL 2012 EARNINGS OUTLOOK; WEAKER ESTIMATED GLOBAL IRON ORE DEMAND GROWTH LOWERS LONG TERM EARNINGS POTENTIAL 2/9/2012