GOLD AND SILVER STOCK DIVERGENT RETURNS SINCE JUNE 6, 2012 10/15/2012
GOLD AND SILVER STOCK DIVERGENT RETURNS SINCE JUNE 6, 2012 10/15/2012
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TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $20.72, $29 target, rated OVERWEIGHT) WE WILL INCORPORATE 10% HIGHER MILL TONNAGES AND 15 MMT INCREASE TO TAHOE’S RESOURCE TONNAGES AFTER NEW SILVER GRADES VERIFIED 10/16/2012
TAHOE RESOURCES INC. (TAHO $20.72, $29 target, rated OVERWEIGHT) WE WILL INCORPORATE 10% HIGHER MILL TONNAGES AND 15 MMT INCREASE TO TAHOE’S RESOURCE TONNAGES AFTER NEW SILVER GRADES VERIFIED 10/16/2012
PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA (PKG $36.26 rated Overweight with $39 price target) NUMEROUS CONSERVATISMS ADDED TO THE MODEL INCLUDING FEWER STOCK BUYBACKS AT HIGHER SHARE PRICES AND ONLY 25% OF ANNOUNCED $50/TON INDUSTRYWIDE CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKES. 10/17/2012
PACKAGING CORP. OF AMERICA (PKG $36.26 rated Overweight with $39 price target) NUMEROUS CONSERVATISMS ADDED TO THE MODEL INCLUDING FEWER STOCK BUYBACKS AT HIGHER SHARE PRICES AND ONLY 25% OF ANNOUNCED $50/TON INDUSTRYWIDE CONTAINERBOARD PRICE HIKES. 10/17/2012
GALWAY RESOURCES (GWYRF US $2.201 or C$2.15, rated Overweight with price target over $3) VETAS SPINOUT MAY PROVE WORTH 1.5 TIMES MORE THAN CALIFORNIA, BUT VALUED NEAR NIL ON OCTOBER 19TH 10/21/2012
GALWAY RESOURCES (GWYRF US $2.201 or C$2.15, rated Overweight with price target over $3) VETAS SPINOUT MAY PROVE WORTH 1.5 TIMES MORE THAN CALIFORNIA, BUT VALUED NEAR NIL ON OCTOBER 19TH 10/21/2012
FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $38.79, rated Overweight, price target cut to $56 from $61) NEAR TERM COPPER, GOLD, and MOLYBDENUM PRICES CUT; NEAR TERM GRASBERG PRODUCTION ESTIMATES LOWERED 10/24/2012
FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $38.79, rated Overweight, price target cut to $56 from $61) NEAR TERM COPPER, GOLD, and MOLYBDENUM PRICES CUT; NEAR TERM GRASBERG PRODUCTION ESTIMATES LOWERED 10/24/2012
ANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $15.48, rated NEUTRAL and price target $23/share) CEO VACANCY A “STRADDLE TRADE,” OR EITHER VERY BAD OR VERY GOOD 10/26/2012
ANGLO AMERICAN (AAUKY $15.48, rated NEUTRAL and price target $23/share) CEO VACANCY A “STRADDLE TRADE,” OR EITHER VERY BAD OR VERY GOOD 10/26/2012
INTERNATIONAL PAPER ($35.93 rated overweight with $47 down from $50 price target) SHAVED PRICE TARGET $3 PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER PRICE CONTAINERBOARD PRICE GAIN ESTIMATE BASED ON 3Q ACTUAL AND ESTIMATE OF ¼ OF ANNOUNCED HIKE WITH LOW OCC 11/4/2012
INTERNATIONAL PAPER ($35.93 rated overweight with $47 down from $50 price target) SHAVED PRICE TARGET $3 PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER PRICE CONTAINERBOARD PRICE GAIN ESTIMATE BASED ON 3Q ACTUAL AND ESTIMATE OF ¼ OF ANNOUNCED HIKE WITH LOW OCC 11/4/2012
MERCATOR MINERALS (MLKKF $$0.50, rated NEUTRAL) PRICE TARGET CUT FROM $2.50 to $0.50 DUE TO DILUTION, USE OF HIGHER 12.5% DISCOUNT RATE, LOWER PRICES AND “BLOCKING POSITION” 11/6/2012
MERCATOR MINERALS (MLKKF $$0.50, rated NEUTRAL) PRICE TARGET CUT FROM $2.50 to $0.50 DUE TO DILUTION, USE OF HIGHER 12.5% DISCOUNT RATE, LOWER PRICES AND “BLOCKING POSITION” 11/6/2012
MUCH CONFIRMATION OF WORLD SLOWDOWN WITH RECORD ALUMINUM, ZINC AND TOTAL EXCHANGE INVENTORY 11/6/2012
MUCH CONFIRMATION OF WORLD SLOWDOWN WITH RECORD ALUMINUM, ZINC AND TOTAL EXCHANGE INVENTORY 11/6/2012
AEM (AEM $54.93 rated Underweight cut from Neutral with $40 up from $37 price target) NPV/SHARE INCREASES BY $2.45 DUE TO LOWER LONG TERM OPERATING COSTS AT MEADOWBANK AND LARONDE; SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION > TWICE ESTIMATED NPV/SHARE CAUSES DOWNGRADE. 11/6/2012
AEM (AEM $54.93 rated Underweight cut from Neutral with $40 up from $37 price target) NPV/SHARE INCREASES BY $2.45 DUE TO LOWER LONG TERM OPERATING COSTS AT MEADOWBANK AND LARONDE; SHARE PRICE APPRECIATION > TWICE ESTIMATED NPV/SHARE CAUSES DOWNGRADE. 11/6/2012