ALCOA (AA $8.39, rating NEUTRAL; PRICE TARGET RAISED FROM $10 to $13) LARGE PROFIT BENEFIT FROM “ARBITRAGE” BETWEEN QUALITY PREMIUMS, MIDWEST PREMIUMS, AND INPUTS LIKE UBC SCRAP DISCOUNTS; ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS SEGMENT VALUES 11/9/2012
ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $27.37, rated Overweight with price target cut to $36 from $80) PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT; TIMET TAKEOVER SHOWS ATI POOR MARKET VALUATION AS ATI PROFITS FALL 11/13/2012
VALE (VALE $17.74, Rating Neutral; price target lowered to $22 from $25) LOWER ESTIMATED NICKEL OUTPUT HURTS LONG TERM EARNINGS; LOWER ESTIMATED 2012 COPPER OUTPUT, IRON ORE, AND NICKEL PRICES 11/13/2012
BARRICK GOLD (ABX $35.29, rated Neutral down from Overweight, $34 down from $43 price target) INCREASED NEAR TERM CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AT PASCUA, OUTPUT DELAYED TWO YEARS JABAL SAYID, AND HIGH Q3 2012 LUMWANA OPERATING COSTS DRIVEN BY WASTE STRIPPING 11/13/2012
RECORD CAP EX AMID GLOBAL SLOWDOWN WORSENS OVERSUPPLY AND THREATENS “WORST EVER CYCLE;” BHP, GLENCORE AND XSTRATA DOWNGRADED FROM OVERWEIGHT AND GLENCORE, XSTRATA, HUDBAY, THOMPSON CREEK, FORTESCUE AND VALE CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT 11/17/2012
ROCKTENN (RKT: $64.61 rated Overweight up from Neutral with $81 price target) FAVORABLE PRICE, COST, SYNERGY TRENDS; POTENTIAL “MACRO BENEFICIARY” OF SLOW GROWTH VIA CHEAP SCRAP AND GAS 11/20/2012
UPDATE AND ANALYSIS OF DIVIDEND POLICIES OF THE 43 STOCKS IN OUR COVERAGE UNIVERSE AND COMPARISON TO 16 LARGE CAP U.S. CONSUMER STOCKS 11/20/2012
METALS INDUSTRIES – – TEN CASE STUDIES AS CHINESE PRODUCE MORE AND FEW WESTERN MINES CUT OUTPUT TO ADJUST TO SLOW GROWTH 11/23/2012
PRETIUM RESOURCES (PVG $13.03 rated overweight with $37 price target maintained) HIGHER TONNAGE VALLEY OF THE KINGS RESOURCE PUBLISHED 11/20/12 OFFSETS LOWER GRADES; SUPPORTS OPERATING RATE INCREASING TO 4,000 SAY IN 2019 > FEASIBILITY RATE OF 2,700 MTPD 11/23/2012
METALS INDUSTRIES – – TEN CASE STUDIES AS CHINESE PRODUCE MORE AND FEW WESTERN MINES CUT OUTPUT TO ADJUST TO SLOW GROWTH 11/23/2012