GOLD INDUSTRY: COST-BASED TRADING RANGE OF $1,200 TO $1,500 PER OZ CORRESPONDS TO $300 TO $400 RANGE IN 1982-2002 ERA 4/16/2013
GOLD INDUSTRY: SENSITIVITY ANALYSES AS PRICES CHANGE 4/15/2013
GOLD INDUSTRY: INVESTMENT RATING INCREASES OWING TO UPSIDES TO GOLD AND SILVER PRICES AND LARGE SHARE PRICE DECLINES IN RISING STOCK MARKET 4/12/2013
COPPER INDUSTRY – – DISCUSSION OF “COST CURVES” AND COST-BASED PRICE FLOORS AS CURRENCIES WEAKEN AND MINE PLANS DEFER COSTS 4/12/2013
RIO TINTO (RIO $47.38, Underweight, price target lowered to $28/share from $30/share) LOWER ALUMINUM PRICES AND UTAH PIT WALL SLIDE NEGATIVES VERSUS FIRMER THAN EXPECTED IRON ORE 4/12/2013
ROCKTENN (RKT $88.80 rated Overweight with $106 down from $126 price target) HIGHER NATURAL GAS INPUT COSTS, REMOVAL OF SECOND PRICE HIKE, AND HIGHER 2015 ONWARDS CAPEX TO MAINTAIN OPERATING MARGINS HURT VALUATION PARTLY OFFSET BY FULLER CURRENT BOX PRICE …
CENTURY ALUMINUM (CENX $7.44, rating lowered to Underweight from Neutral; price target lowered to $4/share from $5/share) LOWER ESTIMATED NEAR TERM LME ALUMINUM INGOT PRICES LOWER ESTIMATED EARNINGS 4/11/2013
ALCOA (AA $8.39, rated Neutral, Price Target cut from $14 to $10) DESPITE GOOD RESULTS, WE CUT OUR LME ALUMINUM PRICE, PRICE TARGET AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES DUE TO EXCESS CHINESE OUTPUT 4/10/2013
AGGRESSIVE CHINESE EXCESS OUTPUT DRIVES OVERSUPPLY AND RISING STOCKPILES; WOOD PRICES RISING TOWARDS 2004 DAILY RECORDS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2004 ANNUAL AVERAGES AND CONTAINERBOARD OPERATES NEAR 97% 4/8/2013
THOMPSON CREEK METALS (TC $2.85, rating cut to Underweight from NEUTRAL; price target cut from $5/share to $1.5/share) RATING AND EARNINGS CUT WITH LOWER COPPER AND MOLY PRICES; RELOOK AT AUGUST 2009 STUDY 4/5/2013