ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $27.57, rated Overweight with price target $44) BREAKUP VALUES VERSUS DCF VALUATIONS COMPARED; ESTIMATES CUT 6/2/2013
FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $31.39, rated Overweight, price target $53) NEW BOARD MEMBERS REINFORCE CONSIDATION OF OIL AND GAS OPPORTUNITIES, WHICH MAY BE SUPERIOR IN MANY RESPECTS 5/31/2013
FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD (FCX $31.06, rated Overweight, price target raised from $48 to $53) HIGHER ESTIMATED NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL PRICES SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOWER ESTIMATED MOLYBDENUM PRICES 5/30/2013
COPPER INDUSTRY – – DEMAND MINIATURIZATION DOWN 3.6%, WORLD MINE OUTPUT UP “ONLY” 7.2% AS CHINESE MINES SLOW, REFINED OUTPUT UP 5.2% AND 252,700 t 1Q REFINED OUTPUT SURPLUS PER WBMS MAY 22ND 5/30/2013
BHP BILLITON (BHP $67.46, rated Neutral, price target lowered to $86 from $88) LOWER ESTIMATED COPPER AND NICKEL PRICES HURT EARNINGS ESTIMATES, NPV AND PRICE TARGET MORE THAN THE BENEFITS OF HIGHER LONG TERM NATURAL GAS AND OIL PRICE ESTIMATES …
FRANCO-NEVADA (FNV $41.24, rated Neutral, Price Target of $44 up from $43) PRETIUM BRUCEJACK 1.2% ROYALTY VERY ENCOURAGING; “DEAL FLOW” MAY SHIFT TO KEEPING MINES OPEN AS NEW MINES DRY UP; MOSTLY OFFSETTING CHANGES TO FNV UNDERLYING DYNAMICS. 5/22/2013
MEADWESTVACO (MWV: $35.77, Rating cut to Underweight from Neutral with $30 up from $29 price target) HIGHER LONG TERM OPERATING MARGIN ESTIMATES IN THE INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT AND HIGHER PER ACRE LAND VALUE ESTIMATES ARE MORE THAN OFFSET BY HIGHER CAPEX, …
VALE (VALE $15.58, Neutral, PRICE TARGET CUT TO $21 from $25/share) GOOD COST DYNAMICS AND FIRMER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET BY TAX CASE, LOWER ESTIMATED CU AND NI PRICES AND LESS FUTURE POTASH OUTPUT 5/16/2013
CF INDUSTRIES (CF $192.52; rated Overweight ; price target cut to $310 from $360) LONG-TERM 2018-20 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT 20% OWING TO CAPACITY ADDITIONS; SPRING NITROGEN PRICES DO NOT FALL AS FEARED; BUYBACKS LARGER THAN EXPECTED 5/15/2013
GOLD INDUSTRY – – FIRST QUARTER 2013 PRETAX AND DIRECT CASH COSTS PER OUNCE OF GOLD COMPARED WITH THE FIRST QUARTER 2012 FOR FOURTEEN LARGE CAP GOLD COMPANIES. 5/14/2013