VALE (VALE $14.98, Neutral, PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $18 from $16/share) BRAZILIAN TAX SETTLEMENT REDUCES RISKS; POOR CLIMATE TO PARNTER OR IPO EITHER COAL OR FERTILIZER UNITS 12/4/2013
DOMTAR (UFS $91.84 rated Neutral with $105 up from $74 price target) HIGHER EBITDA ESTIMATES IN PERSONAL CARE SEGMENT, LOWER ESTIMATED YEAR END 2013 PENSION AND MEDICAL LIABILITIES, HIGHER LONG RUN OPERATING MARGINS IN PULP AND PAPER SEGMENT. 12/20/2013
FOREST PRODUCTS – – COMPARISON OF THE ROEs OF THREE LARGE TIMBER COMPANIES FAVORS PLUM CREEK AND DISPARAGES FIBRIA 12/3/2013
TECK (TCK $24.44, lowered to Underweight; price target lowered to $18 from $25) LOWER OIL AND COAL PRICES HURT FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL; HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED NEAR TERM COPPER PRICES AND COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES OFFSET SHORT TERM EARNINGS 12/20/2013
SPOT MARKETS – – CHINESE STEEL & COPPER SLOW FROM SEPTEMBER; WBMS REVISES CHINA MINE OUTPUT UP FOR Cu, Pb, Zn, Au and Ag 12/24/2013
RIO TINTO (RIO $53.11, RATING OVERWEIGHT, price target raised to $56 from $55/share) HIGHER NEAR TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT AND LOWER FUTURE CAP EX PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER LONG TERM IRON ORE OUTPUT 12/5/2013
POST-2020 BASE METALS OUTLOOK GLOOMY WITH 67 MM FEWER PERSONS IN CHINESE WORK FORCE BY 2030, DEBT LOADS AND WAGE TRENDS 1/3/2014
INTERNATIONAL PAPER (IP $48.83, rating raised to Neutral from Underweight, price target cut to $52 from $55) LARGE ESTIMATED REDUCTION IN YEAR-END EMPLOYEE BENEFITS LIABILITY PARTLY OFFSETS LESSER PRICE GAINS IN CONTAINERBOARD 12/15/2013
GOLD INDUSTRY – – PRICES AVOID NEW LOWS IN “WORST OF ALL WORLDS” WITH MUCH NEW BAD NEWS 12/9/2013
GOLDCORP ($21.07 rated Overweight with $32 down from $35 price target) EL MORRO MODELED ASSUMING A CHINESE SMELTER BUYS A 33.3% STAKE IN 2016 AT GG’S COST; HIGHER CAPEX & SLOWER OUTPUT AT CERRO NEGRO IN ARGENTINA 12/9/2013