ALUMINA LTD. (AWC $5.97, RATING OVERWEIGHT; PRICE TARGET RAISED TO $10.00 from $6.00); SIMULATION OF TWIN BOOM 2018-19 $2/LB LME YEARS BOOSTS TARGET 7/29/2014
SPOT MARKETS – – CHINESE JUNE STEEL, ALUMINUM AND ALUMINA OUTPUTS SURGE DESPITE TIGHTER ENVIRONMENAL RULES 7/30/2014
RIO TINTO (RIO $57.40, RATING LOWERED TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL, price target lowered to $48 from $55/share) ESTIMATED REALIZED IRON ORE PRICES LOWERED FOR 2014 ONWARD; HIGHER AL PREMIUMS AND SIMULATION OF “TWIN BOOM YEARS” IN 2018 AND 2019 INTRODUCED …
DULUTH METALS (DULMF US $0.296, rated Overweight,$2 to$5 price target with no models) PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY NOT ACCEPTABLE OWING TO ORE GRADE MEASUREMENT, RECOVERY RATES OTHER THAN COPPER TOO LOW, SCALE OF OPERATION AND EXCESS CAP EX 8/22/2014
VALE (VALE $13.83, Rating OVERWEIGHT, Price Target cut to $15 from $22) CONVERSIONS TO PELLETS TO UPGRADE QUALITY AND PRICING; SEVERE CUTS DUE TO LOSSES IN FERTILIZER & COAL, LESS COPPER GROWTH, LESS NICKEL OUTPUT AND IRON ORE COMPETITION 8/10/2014
NEWMONT MINING (NEM $26.39 rated Neutral with $23 up from $22 price target maintained) CONTINUES TO CUT COSTS; MERIAN CAP EX AND INDONESIAN ARBITRATION OFFER “LITTLE JOY” 8/9/2014
FORTESCUE METALS (FSUMF US $4.16 bid; rating OVERWEIGHT; price target lowered from $7.50 to $6) LOWER REALIZED IRON ORE PRICE ESTIMATES LOWER CURRENT AND FUTURE EARNINGS ESTIMATES 8/9/2014
BARRICK GOLD (ABX $19.18 rated Underweight with $14 up from $12 price target) LOWER EXPLORATION, LOWER S,G,+A, AND LOWER CASH OPERATING COSTS DRIVE HIGHER NPV AND POST 2015 EARNINGS ESTIMATES 8/13/2014
AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $37.39, rated Neutral, $37 price target) GUIDANCE STEP-UPS DID NOT MEET EXPECTATONS 8/4/2014
COPPER INDUSTRY – – MAY YTD APPARENT DEMAND GROWTH AT 9.3% IN EUROPE, 22.5% IN CHINA AND 3.3% FOR REMAINDER OF WORLD OUTSTRIPS SUPPLY; DEGREE OF SEASONAL DROP IN SECOND-HALF IMPORTANT 8/4/2014