SPOT MARKETS – – SUPPLIES FALLING AS COMPANIES REACT TO LOW PRICES AND/OR POOR RETURNS; Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt VERY PROMISING 11/26/2014
VALE ( $9.47; rated Overwieght, price target lowered to $13/share from $15/share) FINISHING CARAJAS S11d “Serra Sul” WHILE WEATHERING IRON ORE PRICE AND VOLUME SHORTFALLS; IPO OF CU-NI VALUED AT $20 BILLION REQUIRING INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS OF $10 Ni and $3.50 …
ALUMINUM INDUSTRY – -BOOM LOOMING IN 2016-20 AS BAUXITE, ALUMINA AND REFINED METAL STOCKS GETTING USED UP 11/26/2014
AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM $23.49 rated Overweight with $42 up from $39 price target) EL BARQUENO PRODUCTION DOUBLED, MELIADINE OUTPUT NOW EXPECTED IN 2019 UP FROM 2021 12/1/2014
NORBORD (NBRXF US $22.41 and NBD.to C$25.83 rated Overweight with US $33 up from $31.50 price target) AINSWORTH DEAL NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO NPV/SHARE AT OUR BASE CASE OSB PRICING ESTIMATES 12/30/2014
ALUMINUM INDUSTRY – – MYSTERY OF CHINESE AL SMELTER OUTPUT UP 10.1% WITH WORLD BAUXITE MINES DOWN 20.6% 12/30/2014
NICKEL INDUSTRY – – CHINESE STAINLESS OUTPUT UP 13.0% IN FIRST NINE MONTHS AS CHINA DRAWS DOWN UP TO A FULL YEAR OF Ni INVENTORY 12/19/2014
ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES (ATI $35.09, rated Overweight, price target cut to $44 from $54) EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT; ESTEEM AT LOW EBB WITH MOODY’S BOND RATING CUT TO SUB-INVESTMENT GRADE; WORLD STAINLESS CONSTRAINED BY Ni 12/26/2014
SPOT MARKETS – – MINE OUTPUTS OF Cu, Al, Pb, Zn, Ni and Pt MAY NOT REBOUND MUCH OR ENOUGH IN 2015 AFTER 2014 DECLINES 12/24/2014
CONTAINERBOARD INDUSTRY – – FALLING COSTS AND GOOD CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS VERSUS CAPACITY ADDITIONS 12/22/2014